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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 16,496 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    High pressure trying to move west never fills me with confidence. Don't correct me if i'm wrong, but it seems to me the northern arm of the jet has been too active so far this season, so it ruins our chances of a high moving to the right location to open the floodgates to snowy weather. Maybe things will change before the pattern changes later on in the season.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,734 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Looking through various charts I am seeing a very fractured Jet on and off but possibly strengthening around 25th,26th Looks very strong after that ( Storm during the Holidays perhaps ? especially with all the talk of the cold weather in North America )

    Mostly winds with a Southerly aspect, some brief high pressure possible a few days before Christmas which would give some brief easterly winds, some cooler temps on and off but nothing significant. Some brief cool uppers at times but doesn't look like any snow before Christmas to me.

    Spells of wind and rain but nothing too strong showing up as yet but as can happen things can liven up quickly just after Christmas

    Christmas day possibly breezy from the South, spell of rain and relatively mild ( going to stick my neck out for the crack and say between 8C - 12C )

    i4AW67L.jpg?1


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,333 ✭✭✭esposito


    Looking through various charts I am seeing a very fractured Jet on and off but possibly strengthening around 25th,26th Looks very strong after that ( Storm during the Holidays perhaps ? especially with all the talk of the cold weather in North America )


    i4AW67L.jpg?1

    You love your wet and windy weather don't ya.
    Well, I hope you're wrong.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Plenty of time still to go till Santy gets here. Charts are looking better than the usual West muck.

    h850t850eu.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 598 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    Alot of Cold weather Surrounding us. Its going to very seasonal towards Christmas.



    ECM 240

    i78wid.png

    GFS240

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,734 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    This popped up this evening, an outlier perhaps, does not show up on the other models, the GEM does show a system approaching later that day, long way off.

    jEnmiB8.gif

    Zkyqnbb.png?1

    EJQfXFQ.png

    TSbfMPP.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 598 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    This popped up this evening, an outlier perhaps, does not show up on the other models, the GEM does show a system approaching later that day, long way off.

    jEnmiB8.gif

    Zkyqnbb.png?1

    EJQfXFQ.png

    TSbfMPP.png

    Quite Possible due to the Temputure differance. Possible cyclogenesis.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,061 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Well that would be, eh interesting if it came off. It's quite a sight for the eyes, even better that it's quoted so I have to see it twice :D


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,734 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Well that would be, eh interesting if it came off. It's quite a sight for the eyes, even better that it's quoted so I have to see it twice :D

    No sign of it today! Models really struggling atm. High pressure the weekend steadying things down a bit and it would seem that the Atlantic pushes through again around Tues. Some of the models showing perhaps a couple of windy spells around Christmas day ( maybe either side of it ) with High Pressure building again. Real Flip Flop stuff though.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,811 ✭✭✭pauldry


    i reckon a cold showery windy day christmas day and temperatures of 8 to 10 or 11c in a Westerly.

    Wouldnt write off cold weather to end December. A lot more activity spiralling towards us the last 10 days of December as some of the lows eventually break the HP roadblock.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,125 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Pretty cold by Christmas Eve on this morning's ECM. A lobe of polar vortex over much of eastern and northern Europe too...


    ECM0-240.GIF


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭hotwhiskey


    M.T alluded to this mornings forecast for a potential wind storm running up to the days of Christmas. On the ECM.

    ecmt850.192.png

    GFS also running the same theme on the 22nd.

    h850t850eu.png

    Looking at peak gust on the ECM in MPH are pretty insane of the northwest coast in excess of 130mph. Now since i posted this it wont happen.;)

    585125a3e9da3_ECstorm.png.f663100f98d534f2bcd770f604fafd34.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,734 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    I thought that one had disappeared. GFS picking it up too.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,734 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    On the phone looking at the GFS 12Z rollout which has quite a few wind events showing up next week. Possibly quite windy Tues and looking very windy/ stormy across the whole country Thurs and again around Christmas eve through to Stephens day has potential for storms showing up . One we will be keeping a close eye on no doubt.


  • Registered Users Posts: 31,794 ✭✭✭✭Mars Bar


    My sister is flying in on the afternoon of the 23rd. If the wind could stay away for a little bit then that would be great!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,592 ✭✭✭elastico


    Mars Bar wrote: »
    My sister is flying in on the afternoon of the 23rd. If the wind could stay away for a little bit then that would be great!

    Any hint at all of storms and it will be a massive media event


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,011 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    1800Z GFS showing a very nasty storm over Ireland on Christmas eve with an extremely tight gradient


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,217 ✭✭✭dexter647


    1800Z GFS showing a very nasty storm over Ireland on Christmas eve with an extremely tight gradient

    Looks nasty alright but the models really are all over the place lately. If it does come to pass though, Santy really needs to get his sh1t together..


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    1800Z GFS showing a very nasty storm over Ireland on Christmas eve with an extremely tight gradient

    1997 all over again :eek: A particularly bad time for a severe wind storm to hit with people travelling etc. Only FI yet but it looks like we'll have a named storm or 2.


  • Registered Users Posts: 48,122 ✭✭✭✭km79


    1800Z GFS showing a very nasty storm over Ireland on Christmas eve with an extremely tight gradient

    nobody wants that
    hope it goes away


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,734 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The 22nd looking nothing like it did earlier, big downgrade on latest runs. Every run sees big changes to the shape, timing and strength of the earlier predictions . Better to view as a guide to possible potential atm


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,842 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    ME mentioned the possibility of very windy conditions developing at times next week on the forecast at 8am


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 ✭✭✭pedigree 6


    Does anyone know why Ireland is shaded blue?
    I know it could just be a degree below average.
    But is it from polar maritime air?
    Because the rest of Europe is not blue.:confused:

    temp2.glob.DJF2017.1dec2016.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,496 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Just glad I opted not to take a Ferry back now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,479 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    pedigree 6 wrote: »
    Does anyone know why Ireland is shaded blue?
    I know it could just be a degree below average.
    But is it from polar maritime air?
    Because the rest of Europe is not blue.:confused:

    temp2.glob.DJF2017.1dec2016.gif

    They just coloured ireland blue because where practically under water with all the rain we usually get:pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,239 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Alarming looking charts on 12z runs, GEM has 935 mb low in Donegal Bay on 24th, ECM has 950 mb low approaching southwest on Christmas Day, GFS less violent but very active through same period.

    Reason for uncertainty is that this storm evolves out of monster blizzard developing over Midwest and Great Lakes (ice storm included) this weekend. Evolution is obviously complex but general idea is that this storm feeds another storm that forms in the western Atlanrtic by Tuesday or Wednesday.

    That storm is currently forming up over California, Nevada and later today Idaho, Wyoming and Colorado. Even the 72h outlook is rather uncertain for snowfall amounts in the Midwest U.S., slight changes by 72-96h will translate into major modifications of today's charts in next few runs.

    Will suggest that we have a forum conference behind the scenes before starting any threads more than five days in advance, moderators please notify any thread starters basing warnings on model maps over 144h that we should not use level warnings (a discussion thread would be okay) that far in advance. But FWIW the maps have level 2 intensity at this point in time.

    Too soon to speculate on details, would advise due to holiday peak travel stay tuned to all weather sources if you have plans for 24th or 25th travel. Could all settle down to garden variety level one type wind but bear in mind, stronger these storms become, more likely it would be that wintry precip would make it to land due to shorter exposure to N Atlantic modification.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭hotwhiskey


    Some winter weather at last. Had enough of this bore fest.

    images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTQcmLm4wELcf6wMNcTowsJxaO9SOIXdKvlau7G8q2ntcyiM3oc

    193-e1332731791964.jpg

    tumblr_inline_mkyr5oarjS1qz4rgp.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,734 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    For the record here are a sequence of charts that we can compare to later runs ( the earlier run was showing stronger more widespread winds then these )

    Gusts
    ZBoZUvu.gif

    xvS7dvu.gif

    Ej7yofk.gif

    Knots
    lndfmsj.png?1

    Christmas Day showing up very windy also at this stage

    1CKyBf6.png?1


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,734 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    GEM

    9oatNUj.png?1

    ECMWF 850 hPa

    QmFyXjF.png?1


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 592 ✭✭✭hotwhiskey


    Take this with plenty of salt. There is potentional for some white stuff on the big day in the northern half of the country. Some modals showing different variance in guidance but there is a chance. It will be all down to timing, flip a coin from Tropical maritime or Polor maritime air flow.
    240_mslp850uk.png.1b1374d1ce007e04c5200f1f46b3df76.png


This discussion has been closed.
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