FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Autumn/Winter 2016/2017 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Oscar Bravo

Midday Christmas day

ninebeanrows

I think that is the tightest gradient I've ever seen from a GFS Op over Ireland. Destructive winds

JCX BXC

So it's fairly guaranteed that a Storm Barbara isn't too far away, the real question is how strong it's going to be.

Meteorite58

Deepening to 950mb on the 18Z, goes on as low as 948mb . Note the charts are Mean speeds. What will the ECM do ?

cherryghost

Been a while F5'ing a morning GFS run....

Rebelbrowser

cherryghost wrote: »

Been a while F5'ing a morning GFS run....

Likewise. The 23rd storm looks worse again on the 6z gfs but it looks like the worst of it will now miss us to the nw thankfully. 25th not shown yet....

See below:-

cherryghost

Downgrade but still bad for the northern half of the country on xmas day.

Think I'll be asking to work from home on Friday :P

JCX BXC

Was expecting much more of a downgrade a few days ago than what we are seeing!

A little excited for the first storm, it just has terrible timing.

Rebelbrowser

On the 6z Christmas day is (thankfully) a non event wind wise for all but the very North West I'd have said? See below...



Snow risk downgraded too of course.....:mad:

gugsy

Rebelbrowser wrote:

On the 6z Christmas day is (thankfully) a non event wind wise for all but the very North West I'd have said? See below...

Not entirely true it is a bit of a downgrade and tracking a little further north. But we are still 6 days out, any deviation is massive. Current models have us catching the edge of the storm with wind between 80-100 kph and gusts from 100-150 kph. Even on the Irish sea there will be strong winds enough to cancel a crossing or two if they are travelling Xmas day. Lots of changes to come yet tho.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Does the depression for these current charts for the end of this week exist anywhere as yet, or still just FI?

Iancar29

Elliot Dead Thundershower wrote: »

Does the depression for these current charts for the end of this week exist anywhere as yet, or still just FI?

Small trough moving into Alaska today I think. Very volatile indeed.


Onto pure FI now....

Scandi high anyone? :rolleyes:

fraxinus1

Phew! I was a bit worried about those storms over the Christmas. Thankfully it is now looking like non events. Last thing we needed is a major storm hitting on Christmas Day. My folks in Donegal were very worried as they has heard that the worst storm in 40 years was going to hit on Christmas Eve.

Rebelbrowser

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Phew! I was a bit worried about those storms over the Christmas. Thankfully it is now looking like non events. Last thing we needed is a major storm hitting on Christmas Day. My folks in Donegal were very worried as they has heard that the worst storm in 40 years was going to hit on Christmas Eve.

I think I used the words non event and shouldn't have. This is just one run. See what the ecm says come 7.30pm tonight I think before getting any comfort. Moreover, the one place that is still slated to get bad winds at present is Donegal - albeit not pass remarkably bad by Donegal standards I would imagine. Could still upgrade I am afraid though....

Lumi

Mod note
This thread is for technical discussion/analysis of FI charts only.
For more general discussion, met eireann warnings etc, please use the Christmas Storms or Winter Weather General Discussion threads please.

Thanks guys

Elmer Blooker

a westerly gale from Newfoundland to beyond the Urals!!
Another winter flushed down the jax!
Negativity I know but a rut that's impossible to get out of for weeks on end. Sorry.

Meteorite58

Winds around Christmas day storm seem to be now windiest Christmas Eve Night into Christmas morning . These charts can only be taken as a loose guidance. It has been downgraded somewhat as the lows push further North. A lot more time for change either way.

MPH





850hPa

ninebeanrows

Growing model support for a Eurotrash high as we move towards 2017.

Models have shown a move away from a chillier zonal flow that looked as if it would become more prevalent.

The strength of the European high was underestimated by the Ensembles.

Rebelbrowser

For coldies at the very end of the 6z gfs run there is a hint of the beast of the east awakening but very much in FI and no guarantee even then it would make it this far west...

Elmer Blooker

Exactly a year ago we saw temperatures of 15/16c at night, I didn't think I'd ever see that again in mid-winter but now I'm not so sure?
More negativity from me but I find it impossible to find anything positive about a climate where the only difference between winter and summer is the amount of daylight we receive!
Snow in Ireland is now as rare as snow in the Arabian desert ..... and they even get more than us! http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/bizarre-scene-saudis-ice-skate-9359336

pqdvdplayer

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Exactly a year ago we saw temperatures of 15/16c at night, I didn't think I'd ever see that again in mid-winter but now I'm not so sure?
More negativity from me but I find it impossible to find anything positive about a climate where the only difference between winter and summer is the amount of daylight we receive!
Snow in Ireland is now as rare as snow in the Arabian desert ..... and they even get more than us! http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/bizarre-scene-saudis-ice-skate-9359336

Have you seen Torshavn in the Faro Islands climate? It's like ours except worse

ArKl0w

https://twitter.com/matthugo81/status/811329061175853056

Captain Snow

Go North High Pressure.....:D

icesnowfrost

Signs of good cold for early January showing up the past few days.

Nabber

Better get the Christmas shorts ready.

ArKl0w

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Signs of good cold for early January showing up the past few days.

Good lord T+312
Volcanoes showing up at that distance would be more realistic

icesnowfrost

ArKl0w wrote: »

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Signs of good cold for early January showing up the past few days.

Good lord T+312
Volcanoes showing up at that distance would be more realistic

lol I don't just mean t+312, look at Europe and the north of us how cold it's getting and how consistent it's been on the charts

ArKl0w

icesnowfrost wrote: »

lol I don't just mean t+312, look at Europe and the north of us how cold it's getting and how consistent it's bee

Aye
However,our high when it sets up needs to head west not east

A high over Russia and East Scandinavia will have no impact on our weather other than to stall rain bearing fronts over the Irish Sea and push up the daffodils!

Hugo has access to the ECM ensemble members (we don't,MT doesn't) they're an important tool but also often wrong (like most models just less so)
A lot of them shift our high eventually west opening the door to a maritime North and the lesser possibility a polar northeasterly

All too far away to be counted on

nagdefy

FI looking better for cold, look at December 31st.



And by 2nd January

nagdefy

Of course it's FI but lovely eye candy serious snow blizzard potential around 5th January charts.

nagdefy

Those building blocks for cold appear 9 days away on 31st December so it's not deep FI

We live in hope

ECM 12Z has high pressure well to the west of us on December 31st too.

icesnowfrost

Ahem!!

nagdefy

Of course it's only a few runs in FI but it's great not to be looking at mid euro highs, Bartlett high's, westerlies from Newfoundland to the Urals:)

And at least it's relatively early in the winter rather than March.

Donegal Storm

Ha if something like that came off we'd be looking at one of the most extreme blizzards on record, don't think so somehow but it'd be an interesting intro to 2017

A toppler around new year's looks like a realistic possibility at least

ArKl0w

This is the 00z for Jan 2nd
It's way too far away but let's comment on what it might mean
It's suggesting our Xmas period high will drift west
It's suggesting a high of 1044 over Greenland
It's suggesting a mid Atlantic blocking that's ridging towards western Greenland in a sort of pincer movement to close off anything exiting Canada
It ties in with what Mr Hugo hinted at above
What does it mean?
Nothing this far out as getting to the point of the attached map depends on so many things happening right now
But usually barring the unforeseen (something not currently modelled like say a storm actually getting out of North America) we could end up with our high out west
With the Atlantic blocked and vigorous systems over Scandinavia dropping into Europe,that could lead to the north and northeast trap door being opened,lucky we're stocking up on calories in the next week,we may well need them?

Gonzo

lets hope wet get a proper blast from the east, even if its only for a few days, it's been way to long since most of us has seen proper lying snow, we all deserve it.

Donegal Storm

New year's day toppler still a possibility on tonight's ECMWF though mostly dry and cold for us. After that though things stay interesting with an Atlantic block setting up

icesnowfrost

Looking nice with -8 to -12 uppers. The beginning of January is looking very cold.

Donegal Storm

Increasingly cold trend from new year's day onwards, ECMWF is even more progressive with a massive Atlantic block. Still too far away to bother get excited but at least things are looking interesting for a change

JCX BXC

Donegal Storm wrote: »

but at least things are looking interesting for a change

For a change? Didn't they look like this a month ago too?

Donegal Storm

JCX BXC wrote: »

For a change? Didn't they look like this a month ago too?

Yeah you're probably right, I was abroad a month ago so can't say I was following things too closely. Every chance this one will end up being a dud again of course

Captain Snow

Snow Showers Running down the Irish Sea covering the East Coast......

ArKl0w

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/813394730159656960

Captain Snow

Winter Just Made its Presence .....




The 2 lows are going to Explode south......

Pa ElGrande

Don't know if we want this cold . . .

Biting cold below minus 60C brings out the best in Siberian face fashion
22 December 2016

This is not a week when there was any evidence of global warming in western Siberia, with thermometers plunging to the minus 40s and minus 62 Celsius. Meteorologists say it may get colder still.

At Bolshoe Olkhovskoe oilfield there was a new record for the Khanti-Mansi region with a bone-crushing temperature of minus 62C. The village of Kazym in the same district of Beloyarsky hit minus 58C.


A video was posted entitled: 'Surgut men are so hardy they only ride on a swing and eat ice cream at minus 51C.'

In Nadym, it nudged minus 50C, and all schools were closed. In Tyumen, school classes were cancelled from grades 1 to 9, with minus 36C the trigger for children to stay home, although elsewhere in Siberia - for example Yakutia in recent weeks - students are still expected in school at below minus 52C.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2wOjd6QoKY

Nizhnevartovsk hit minus 50C, the coldest winter in ten years in the city. School classes were cancelled today - and for the rest of the week.

Such temperatures happen in eastern Siberia, but in the west they are more rare.

source

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2ckq5aeaaU

There is another opinion

Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts
December 19, 2016

Dr. Judah Cohen from Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) recently embarked on an experimental process of regular research, review, and analysis of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). This analysis is intended to provide researchers and practitioners real-time insights on one of North America’s and Europe’s leading drivers for extreme and persistent temperature patterns.

Summary

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently positive and is predicted to first trend positive towards strongly positive and then trend negative back towards neutral. However the models do not predict a negative AO in the foreseeable future.

The positive AO is reflective of mostly negative pressure/geopotential height anomalies in the Arctic and mostly positive pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitude ocean basins. With negative heights over Greenland and Iceland, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is currently positive and is also predicted to remain positive over the next two weeks.

The persistent positive AO will likely result in a mild pattern over western Eurasia, especially Northern Europe. Cold air currently over Western Asia will be shunted further east into East Asia over the next two weeks.
<snip>
Near-Term

1-2 week

The AO is predicted to remain positive for next week (Figure 1). The positive AO is a result of mostly negative geopotential height anomalies across the Arctic basin and mostly positive geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitude ocean basins (Figure 5a). And with negative geopotential height anomalies predicted near Iceland and Greenland as well, the NAO is also predicted to remain positive this period.

The mid-tropospheric blocking that has been in place for the past two months across western Eurasia is predicted to finally give way. With ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies stretching across Southern Europe and troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies across Northern Europe, will create strong zonal flow across Europe (Figure 5a). This will create a mild westerly flow of maritime air for all of Western Eurasia, resulting in above normal temperatures for Europe, Western Asia and even Western Siberia (Figure 6). Weak ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies downstream over Western Asia will force enough troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies in Central and Eastern Siberia (Figure 5a) to allow for below normal temperatures across the region (Figure 6). Positive geopotential height anomalies will persist across East Asia (Figure 5a) resulting in seasonable to above normal temperatures for East Asia (Figure 6)

source

Nothing major forecast for the Arkhangelsk region or Murmansk region yet.



https://www.gismeteo.com/map/557/


Colder conditions forecast for the first week of January 2017 in the Murmansk region and Arkhangelsk.

ArKl0w

Quite apart from the fact that Gfs is just 1 run and that the above output is in LA LA LAND
The ECM model has backed off
Even suggesting our high will slide into Europe now

Worth keeping an eye on but until there's a trend in the cold direction (And there isn't) ,I shan't be posting any more comments

If anyone wants to know why ,have a look at historical threads from about Jan 5th to the 14 onwards 2007
A perfect set up leading us all down the garden path
By about the 14th despite an epic cold spell being 4 or 5 days away on the models,it was all a mistake by them and we and the UK saw no cold spell

Just a sobering warning
Looking at lala land FI charts is pointless other than the academic what if

Joe Bastardi's tweet earlier may be based on more information like ecm ensemble Data
But proper forecasters only use those for tricky sub 96hr forecasts
They don't rely on them out beyond that unless they're very consistent,I suppose as Bastardi has them(so has Hugo) ,tweets from both may give some coldie hopeful insight ?
Proceed with caution

Iancar29

Captain Snow wrote: »

Snow Showers Running down the Irish Sea covering the East Coast......

Certainly possible looking at the 06z run. 20 degree temp spread!





Definitely one to keep an eye on as models find it hard to predict "lake effect" ppn.

Captain Snow

Nice 120Hr chart Snow Showers Rattling in off the Irish Sea. Possible brief spell of cold just have to wait and see how the models change when the cold arrives New Years Day.

pedigree 6

Keeping with the same time period.
The GEM model throws up a perculiar Low Pressure off the south east of Ireland on the 2nd.:rolleyes:

RobertKK

https://twitter.com/matthugo81/status/814017611197509632

Also says caution needed, but signs of a decent Greenland block forming.