Cold Spell January 9th to 16th 2016

rickdangerouss

It was a nice dream

Rock Lesnar

maquiladora wrote: »

Oh dear....starting to look more like a cold snap or just a more seasonal winter mix rather than a significant cold spell. Models moving in the wrong direction with further downgrades possible. There could still be snowfall episodes in such a setup, but more likely northern/hills or snow turning to rain type of events.

On a lighter note, this might be the first 20+ thread for a cold spell that never really existed. :p

does it look dry at least Maq?

maquiladora

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

does it look dry at least Maq?

ECM doesn't show any heavy precipitation until the 16th, and then this could be heavy snow rather than rain for northern parts/high ground. But it's a long way off.

snaps

It was always in FI anyway. I think this thread jumped the gun.

I thought we had all agreed years ago that anything over +72hrs was very uncertain?

Nabber

Oh dear

Clonmel1000

snaps wrote: »

It was always in FI anyway. I think this thread jumped the gun.

I thought we had all agreed years ago that anything over +72hrs was very uncertain?

Ya think???

Some of the stuff from the senior commentators here has been interesting and informative other stiff posted has been hilarious bordering on ludicrous.

kstand

I think at this stage (and I'd put money on it being the case for the rest of the winter, if you could call it that) the very best anyone can hope for is a couple of hailstones or cold rain.

WheatenBriar

kstand wrote: »

I think at this stage (and I'd put money on it being the case for the rest of the winter, if you could call it that) the very best anyone can hope for is a couple of hailstones or cold rain.

You can hope for whatever you like but I wouldn't be putting money on it

As for the last two runs,patience pedwans,patience,
Can ye not just see that gfs outcome is ridiculous, when was the last time an azores low barrelled into Ireland like that with a jetstream up to the day before consistently modelling the jet south?
If this is going to happen (it's never been nailed on just likely or very likely) it was always going to be in stages,so yeah can we have patience pedwans please patience?

Larbre34

Shut this one down, its a bust.

If we get any weather warnings next week it will be for icy patches on untreated surfaces in sheltered areas. Nothing more to see.

kstand

WheatenBriar wrote: »

You can hope for whatever you like but I wouldn't be putting money on it

As for the last two runs,patience pedwans,patience,
Can ye not just see that gfs outcome is ridiculous, when was the last time an azores low barrelled into Ireland like that with a jetstream up to the day before consistently modelling the jet south?
If this is going to happen (it's never been nailed on just likely or very likely) it was always going to be in stages,so yeah can we have patience pedwans please patience?

ECM gone the same way. Cold rain, thats as good as it gets.

Stealthfins

Wish I was here in 2009/2010
I love the build-up,I used to watch the weather since I was a kid.
Sometimes I'd phone up the weather forecast,I don't know there's still a number you can call.
Let it snow let it snow......
Keep ramping it up

homolumo

We have all been here before; you would think we should know better:). Let's sit back and what will be will be. It may have been too early to start a thread but at the time all the models were in agreement.

WheatenBriar

kstand wrote: »

ECM gone the same way. Cold rain, thats as good as it gets.

Would you like me to gather up examples of past threads where models flip and flip back again out at 8 days? There are plenty just as there are many threads here discussing cold spells that never happened
Through them all,some here are trying to be informative, so posts like yours aren't necessary
If its snow you want can you pause and look around at the wonderfully potentialtastic synoptics around at the moment and realise for a decent cold spell to begin,its not an on off tap,its stages backwards and forwards all the time,I remain hopeful ok?

Villain

Plenty of building blocks coming into place, as WheatenBriar says it's not an on off tap.

GFS looks odd to me not saying it's totally wrong but I'm not sure that's how it will pan out and we have had many false starts in the past before real cold gets going. I'll take some dry cold crisp weather as a start anyway, much better than record mild and wet we had so far!

evosteo

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/632611/UK-Weather-Snow-snowbomb-red-alert-UK-coldest-winter-58-years

The official hype has begun. (",)

Storm 10

ME this morning on the radio saying its going to get very cold next week with heavy wintery showers in the North and the West. Yipeeeee

kingshankly

Storm 10 wrote: »

ME this morning on the radio saying its going to get very cold next week with heavy wintery showers in the North and the West. Yipeeeee

I never heard you on the radio

Pherekydes

evosteo wrote: »

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/632611/UK-Weather-Snow-snowbomb-red-alert-UK-coldest-winter-58-years

The official hype has begun. (",)

Arctic SNOWBOMB to smash into Britain: Coldest winter in 58 YEARS now just days away
BRITAIN faces WEEKS of sub-zero blizzards, crippling snowfall and brutal winter storms as a savage turn in the weather plunges the ENTIRE COUNTRY into winter lockdown.

All seems quite measured.

maquiladora

Stealthfins wrote: »

Wish I was here in 2009/2010
I love the build-up,I used to watch the weather since I was a kid.
Sometimes I'd phone up the weather forecast,I don't know there's still a number you can call.
Let it snow let it snow......
Keep ramping it up

Weatherdial!

http://www.met.ie/about/weatherdial/

evosteo

Pherekydes wrote: »

All seems quite measured.

Buzzwords

Rebelbrowser

WheatenBriar wrote: »

You can hope for whatever you like but I wouldn't be putting money on it

As for the last two runs,patience pedwans,patience,
Can ye not just see that gfs outcome is ridiculous, when was the last time an azores low barrelled into Ireland like that with a jetstream up to the day before consistently modelling the jet south?
If this is going to happen (it's never been nailed on just likely or very likely) it was always going to be in stages,so yeah can we have patience pedwans please patience?

Just for those who don't follow these threads regularly, WB is not a man easily won over by charts showing cold spells. I can recall at least two apparently nailed on easterlies in the last 3 years which he said weren't going to happen given everything else going on in the northern hemisphere. Naturally he was completely right. So if WB (and MT, WC, Maq, Iancar, Kermit, Oneric 3 and the others we all know) are all seeing potential here still then there is still potential.

Actually the ultimate challenge historically was to get FVWT onside for a cold spell - sorry if I've missed it but would love to hear his views too...

I've actually been a very compromised snow bunny watching this thread. I've forked out to bring my kid to the alps next weekend so I was actually a bit cheesed off when I thought I could have saved the cost and let him play in the snow here! Accordingly I can handle the downgrades (for once!).

Keep up the good work to all our knowledgeable posters.

Elmer Blooker

Lotsa doom 'n gloom around this morning,
Absolutely nothing wrong imo with this chart from the reliable UKMO?
I like the look of that ridge in the Svalbard area. We could get good northern blocking from this.
PS. I agree with what Villain said about false starts before the real thing gets going. Its the "blasts" that tend to be short lived affairs, Jan 1987 being a good example not to mention the countless Arctic blasts that last about 1-3 days I've witnessed.

maquiladora

I'd still expect some kind of a cold spell, but at the moment it looks like we may end up with a more normal January cold spell than something exceptional or long lasting. For example : a few days of sub-zero nights, frost, some wintry showers with snow more likely on higher ground. That kind of thing. Not the 2009 or 2010 kinda thing that some of the charts were teasing us with.

Still except to see further changes on the models in the hours and days ahead. They've certainly changed a lot recently and there's no reason why that should stop.

arctictree

Not sure why all the gloom.

ECM at 192 is a major borderline snow event



But this will change in the next few runs.

Edit: In fact looking at that chart, covering half of the Northern hemisphere, the best place for snow would be Mullingar, Athlone or somewhere like that...

Steve F

Eugene Norman wrote: »

Yes it is. And most people want snow. You don't. People jokingly made replies and you threw a hissy fit.

No,most people ON THIS THREAD want snow

I have to travel by ferry from Dublin to Holyhead a week tomorrow (16th) and then drive down to the NEC in Birmingham.Anyone know what it's going to be like?Predictions of weather and road conditions?.Genuine question
Steve

kstand

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Would you like me to gather up examples of past threads where models flip and flip back again out at 8 days? There are plenty just as there are many threads here discussing cold spells that never happened
Through them all,some here are trying to be informative, so posts like yours aren't necessary
If its snow you want can you pause and look around at the wonderfully potentialtastic synoptics around at the moment and realise for a decent cold spell to begin,its not an on off tap,its stages backwards and forwards all the time,I remain hopeful ok?

Arent necessary? This is a chat thread?
Plenty of comments on this thread that "arent necessary" yet as soon as someone rains of the cold parade they are taken up on it.
Cold rain.

Steve F

evosteo wrote: »

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/632611/UK-Weather-Snow-snowbomb-red-alert-UK-coldest-winter-58-years

The official hype has begun. (",)

Wonder did the oil companies start this rumour?Been so flippin mild their profits must be down :P

Mooro

evosteo wrote: »

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/632611/UK-Weather-Snow-snowbomb-red-alert-UK-coldest-winter-58-years

The official hype has begun. (",)

Long time lurker and very occasional poster on these threads but in my my experience if James Madden from Exacta Weather predicts anything the opposite usually happens Really hope this in not the case here. Looking forward to some snow.

horsefarm

Steve F wrote: »

Wonder did the oil companies start this rumour?Been so flippin mild their profits must be down :P

Oh God you're probably right and I fell for it. I told my other half to order more oil last night as we are DEFINITELY getting snow.

If we get the oil it won't snow. If we don't get oil it will snow...decisions decisions

WheatenBriar

kstand wrote: »

Arent necessary? This is a chat thread?
Plenty of comments on this thread that "arent necessary" yet as soon as someone rains of the cold parade they are taken up on it.
Cold rain.

Its a chat thread yes where we are discussing probabilities,some of us think current synoptics offer the likelihood of it getting cold enough in stages for snow for some (probably the west and north in this stage), no one ever said anything about longevity being nailed on,we just comment on the output, so I don't think a proclamation of cold rain full stop which isn't nailed on either is necessary is it?

Not saying this is a valid comparison, but there was cold rain in dec 2010 too and times mid month when what happened the week before Xmas was ruled out by loads
Models are funny things really
I like them in these potential situations most and reading the various analysis where deep cold could happen if you understand?

Of course sods law dictates that they or rather the weather has the power of course to disappoint.