Cold Spell January 9th to 16th 2016

Eugene Norman

NewApproach wrote: »

Why should there be multiple threads on the same topic?

Isn't this the thread to discuss the significant cold spell which is expected?

Yes it is. And most people want snow. You don't. People jokingly made replies and you threw a hissy fit.

Gonzo

I get the feeling no matter what happens over the next week that toys will get thrown regardless. This event is still a week away and we are in the toughest spot north of southern Spain for snow to fall and settle.

If it snows mainly in the west and North-west, toys will be thrown in Leinster and especially Dublin. If it snows in the east toys will be thrown towards the Isle of Man and from people in the west and south-west. If it buckets down snow throughout Europe and UK while Ireland gets rain or clear blue skies even bigger toys will get thrown.

Lets hope for all our sakes that this event works out and everyone gets to see at least a few days of lying snow, we all deserve it!

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

I get the feeling no matter what happens over the next week that toys will get thrown regardless. This event is still a week away and we are in the toughest spot north of southern Spain for snow to fall and settle.

If it snows mainly in the west and North-west, toys will be thrown in Leinster and especially Dublin. If it snows in the east toys will be thrown towards the Isle of Man and from people in the west and south-west. If it buckets down snow throughout Europe and UK while Ireland gets rain or clear blue skies even bigger toys will get thrown.

Lets hope for all our sakes that this event works out and everyone gets to see at least a few days of lying snow, we all deserve it!

Mother Nature can be very harsh alright - we definitely deserve the weather we want for suffering such a bad spell OR a bad December and a run of snowless Winters (March 2013 is still not appropriate to be called a Winter month LOL)

aboyro

aboyro

whatever about wanting snow. just give us seasons. warm summers and the odd snow day in winter. is it too much to ask for???

for now, like everyone else here I'm on this snowlercoaster. yee-haw!!!!!!!!

pad199207

ECM seems to be following GFS now...... I'm off to book myself into pats

ninebeanrows

144hrs looks snowy in the EC, of course marginal in places. But you don't really get widespread snow events that aren't borderline, barring if you had a deep cold easterly with lake effect off irish sea etc.

ninebeanrows

A very snowy chart this, but too far away to be looking at, nice eye candy. Usual caveats wrt marginality etc.

maquiladora

Look at that low that crosses the country from north to south on the ECM between 144 and 168 with. With -6 uppers you'd imagine that would be snow. I've seen frontal snow with -2 uppers.

ninebeanrows

The 12z EC is a thing of beauty, and i reckon the extended range won't be too shabby either, seems to 'lock in' the cold.

Reckless Abandonment

pad199207 wrote: »

ECM seems to be following GFS now...... I'm off to book myself into pats

If you are bring a sledge ECM looks great to me

cherryghost

Lets bring up the age old debate of snowfall accuracy in GFS vs ECM.

M.T. Cranium

The major models have a bit of a spread but the general theme is ever increasing chances of snow, have to say that the GEM model has actually outperformed the big two in the recent past, for example it had the right solution for Frank and more recently took a middle course on that storm from the Azores that the big two took turns overdeveloping. By the way that now seems to be destined to circle around for several days waiting for blocking to get out of its way and then head in weakened state towards France towards end of next week.

I would say the ECM is considerably more bullish on snow potential on the 12z runs but it only takes marginal tweaking of the 8-9 day GFS to get quite a good snowfall event across central Ireland. Best bet is that most people will see a bit of snow next week and a few may see lots while temperatures will be below normal if not below freezing necessarily (daytime, I think most places away from most temperate southwest coasts will have night frosts all week).

In the longer term, there is a higher probability of an active battleground scenario developing around the 20th-25th and it could be after that period that the deepest cold develops over northern Europe.

As long as things remain somewhat Atlantic influenced there's always the problem of transient warming of incoming trough or frontal systems and it seems almost inevitable that the -8 C uppers on day 7-8 charts turn into -5 uppers in the actual event. That of course is just the marginal difference needed to turn a widespread snow event into hill snow and sleety rain near sea level. So I would rather expect a bit of that theme until the flow is less northwest and more north to northeast.

vistafinder

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

Damn, missed this thread.

Welcome. We kept a seat for ya...

screamer

We had a one hour snow shower today didn't stick but still was really cold today.

Nabber

Chances of snow looking good. But for significant cold, you'd want the block to be a Scandi one, if you want 'significant' cold levels.

WheatenBriar

Nabber wrote: »

Chances of snow looking good. But for significant cold, you'd want the block to be a Scandi one, if you want 'significant' cold levels.

No!
South of Iceland

Coldest snowiest weather always comes from Scandinavia direction as villian in Tullow weather will tell you

Villain

WheatenBriar wrote: »

No!
South of Iceland

Coldest snowiest weather always comes from Scandinavia direction as villian in Tullow weather will tell you

-17.7! Doesn't get much better than that!

Actually Facebook memories served me up some lovey memories from 6 years ago today.

BLIZZARD7

Nabber wrote: »

Chances of snow looking good. But for significant cold, you'd want the block to be a Scandi one, if you want 'significant' cold levels.

2010 definitely had significant cold- Greeny highs are much more robust and produce more often than Scandi highs, I'm much happier we are looking at Greenland height rises rather than Scandinavian. Shortwaves pop up at short notice quite often when we are watching an easterly post +96hrs.

You have a point in that some of the deepest cold uppers ever seen here I.e 1987, have been delivered via a Scandi high, however everything has to be perfect for that scenario.

- IF we do get a Greenland high (looking more likely) Deep cold should follow, ECM is very November 2010 esque in its evolution this evening...

Scubadevils

Nabber wrote: »

Chances of snow looking good. But for significant cold, you'd want the block to be a Scandi one, if you want 'significant' cold levels.

Simple definition of 'significant' according to Webster...

'large enough to be noticed or have an effect'

Even a few days of near freezing and some snow in various places could be deemed significant versus our normal Irish weather!

Mr.Crinklewood

I'm off to the attic to get my snood.

NMB

Where's Kermit ?

BLIZZARD7

This UKMO chart at day 6 has deep cold over Ireland, 850hpa Temps of roughly -10c to -12c into the North East I think?
That's much lower than any of the other models at that timeframe...

Rock Lesnar

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

[This UKMO chart at day 6 has deep cold over Ireland, 850hpa Temps of roughly -10c to -12c into the North East I think?
That's much lower than any of the other models at that timeframe...

Into the North East you say, now this i like.......A Lot

StewartGriffin

NMB wrote: »

Where's Kermit ?

Probably waiting to start his own thread.

onmebike

I think I'm going to need a water-cooled F5 button here. I've got a flight to Liverpool on the morning of the 17th for a (the) match and this may be the one time in my life I'd prefer if there wasn't 10 foot of snow in Dublin.

Oneiric 3

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

2010 definitely had significant cold- Greeny highs are much more robust and produce more often than Scandi highs, I'm much happier we are looking at Greenland height rises rather than Scandinavian. Shortwaves pop up at short notice quite often when we are watching an easterly post +96hrs.

You have a point in that some of the deepest cold uppers ever seen here I.e 1987, have been delivered via a Scandi high, however everything has to be perfect for that scenario.

- IF we do get a Greenland high (looking more likely) Deep cold should follow, ECM is very November 2010 esque in its evolution this evening...

I agree Blizzard7. Our deepest coldest and snowiest weather will more likely come from the north rather than the east. That said, there is something special about a true easterly in winter, the type of easterly that is courtesy of a continental/Russian high as opposed to a standard northern Scandinavian one, which often contains a lot of maritime air which I personally have no time for. Last time we seen such was as far back as Jan '08.

Eugene Norman

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I agree Blizzard7. Our deepest coldest and snowiest weather will more likely come from the north rather than the east. That said, there is something special about a true easterly in winter, the type of easterly that is courtesy of a continental/Russian high as opposed to a standard northern Scandinavian one which often contains a lot of maritime air which I personally have no time for. Last time we seen such a was as far back as Jan '08.

Really? I remember 2010 being driven from the east and looking into 1982 it clearly was a easterly driven battlefield.

The north winds are moderated by the sea and are rarely that cold compared to Siberian easterlies

Baggy Trousers

Have we any map showing where the snow is likely to fall i.e. N, S, E or W?

I am in west Galway where we rarely see snow. I blame a snow shield I have invented relating to either Lough Corrib or the western Hills (Partrys, Pins, Maamturks etc).

But I will climb anything at any time to get a taste of virgin snow!

It's great to have that snow bunny feeling again. Yeehaw!! :D:D:D

Oneiric 3

Eugene Norman wrote: »

Really? I remember 2010 being driven from the east and looking into 1982 it clearly was a easterly driven battlefield.

Yes, really. Any easterly in 2010 was more just a 'returning' maritime flow with any continental influence very weak and shallow. 2010 was very much driven from the north.