Cold Spell January 9th to 16th 2016

Clonmel1000

Not a bit bitter but your response is typical of the sort of carry on that goes on by some posters here. I love the weather forum and am fascinated and intrigued by the knowledge shown by some of the guys here. Honestly I'm not going to get into an argument here with you on this but I feel there's a large minority of lurkers and posters that agree with me. Its well rehashed at this stage.

pad199207

ECM would just p@&s ye off altogether. GFS annoyingly is king

gerrybhoy

Pissed off with everyone back in Scotland posting pics of the snow ...mehh

Captain Snow

Its a good sign that all the models are throwing backward and forward ATM even the ensembles are Mixed up all over the place. It aint over yet. This happens all the time when a cold spell develops.

WheatenBriar

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Not a bit bitter but your response is typical of the sort of carry on that goes on by some posters here. I love the weather forum and am fascinated and intrigued by the knowledge shown by some of the guys here. Honestly I'm not going to get into an argument here with you on this but I feel there's a large minority of lurkers and posters that agree with me. Its well rehashed at this stage.

To be fair lad,it is true, the 6 or 7 knowledgeable here all were posting about what might happen, not what would
Theres no harm in that,plus there will be snow next week

I'm still firmly in the wait and see camp as to the future but this cold spell won't extend past next week.
Too many obstacles being thrown up by mother nature.
Lets see if we can get another stronger attempt in more favourable circumstances out of the building blocks in about a fortnight?

Rock Lesnar

Right as it sounds like its relatively dry for the next week anyway, im going to take a break from the weather forum and go back to my tried and trusted method of looking out the window and what ever's happening is happening, enjoy the thread lads.

dexter647

Looks very messy to me and correct me if I'm wrong but I can't remember ever seeing a low coming up from the azores like that in winter...

Speak Now

dexter647 wrote: »

Looks very messy to me and correct me if I'm wrong but I can't remember ever seeing a low coming up from the azores like that in winter...

Its hilarious really, if it's not the Azores high messing us up its the Azores low
We've a horrible location, that's what makes the chase for snow in the winter and heat in the summer so interesting. If we guaranteed both the weather forum would be a much quieter place

Flappy Head

Is snow expected or not?

Speak Now

Flappy Head wrote: »

Is snow expected or not?

Yes in favourable locations.

jack o shea

does somebody make money from that fI ****e? bigger fools to be looking at it and believing it.

screamer

Well I'm quite happy TBH nice cold frosty weather to kill all the germs and bugs beautiful sunshine to warm your soul and if we get an odd bit of snow it'd be sugar on top. Glad not to have drifts of snow forecast TBH.

nacho libre

murphy's law strikes again, given the atlantic is the primary driver of our weather, what can go wrong will usually go wrong in cold synoptics, be it shortwaves, chunks of pv setting up in the wrong place, angular momentum phases goes higher than anticipitated, the - nao being too west based, what can go wrong will go wrong.

all that said, while it does not look like we will be having ice days with widespread snow, some places will likely see snow next week, with snow cover perhaps on low ground at times too.

MissMoc

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Not a bit bitter but your response is typical of the sort of carry on that goes on by some posters here. I love the weather forum and am fascinated and intrigued by the knowledge shown by some of the guys here. Honestly I'm not going to get into an argument here with you on this but I feel there's a large minority of lurkers and posters that agree with me. Its well rehashed at this stage.

I could not agree with you more, each winter I am glued to these threads. As someone who just has a fascination with winter weather but no knowledge of how to read charts, I really value the opinions of those that can. I also know ( in my very limited knowledge) that these change quickly & frequently. The people in the know can only tell us what they are seeing at the time - they are good, but they can't control the weather.

sumtings

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Not a bit bitter but your response is typical of the sort of carry on that goes on by some posters here. I love the weather forum and am fascinated and intrigued by the knowledge shown by some of the guys here. Honestly I'm not going to get into an argument here with you on this but I feel there's a large minority of lurkers and posters that agree with me. Its well rehashed at this stage.

its a never ending conversation with ebbs and flows and as we tend towards a moment certainty is attained but what's over the horizon moves and the conversation continues. If there was certainty at all times there would be no conversation.

Nabber

Best chart I've seen at +144 on ECM this winter.

Nothing Major, but these can upgrade or downgrade from run to run.

Elmer Blooker

can someone tell me when will this cold spell arrive?
currently 1c in Dublin,

Captain Snow

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

can someone tell me when will this cold spell arrive?
currently 1c in Dublin,

Its here. It started on Wednesday night when parts of the country had there first frosts.... Parts of the country have already had snow that been higher ground. Lets wait and see how unstable the flow is from the north Atlantic is, over the next 7 days.

Flappy Head

Could it be anything like 2010?

Captain Snow

If we are to go by todays runs.....No is the answer.

I would love a 2010 setup....the models are just nothing showing it ATM.

However don,t panic yet.....

We are all looking for some sort of easterly to bring in heavy organised snow showers to the east at some time next week. Depends on the orientation any low pressure near to us.

But the west is getting that type of set up now. Heavy wintery showers. Hail sleet and snow.

As the cold becomes more entrenched the more the models will adapt.

Monday the west gets heavy wintery showers piling in off the atlantic




Tuesday the same.

Eugene Norman

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Not a bit bitter but your response is typical of the sort of carry on that goes on by some posters here. I love the weather forum and am fascinated and intrigued by the knowledge shown by some of the guys here. Honestly I'm not going to get into an argument here with you on this but I feel there's a large minority of lurkers and posters that agree with me. Its well rehashed at this stage.

I don't understand your arguments. You said the thread was "hilarious" now you recognise the knowledge of some posters. So what's hilarious?

pauldry

These things always go

10days fantasy island
8 days more than a week out
6 days weekend before event
4 days the next day
2 days monday of week

Reality a few hours snow then frost for 3 or 4 days.

Eugene Norman

pauldry wrote: »

These things always go

10days fantasy island
8 days more than a week out
6 days weekend before event
4 days the next day
2 days monday of week

Reality a few hours snow then frost for 3 or 4 days.

They don't always go like that. Not in 2010.

Model watching or model watching by proxy is what's fun about this forum.

Clonmel1000

Eugene Norman wrote: »

I don't understand your arguments. You said the thread was "hilarious" now you recognise the knowledge of some posters. So what's hilarious?

The ramping and overhyped reaction of others. And when this is questioned or tempered a bit your called bitter....or get PMs asking you to stop posting anything other than the daily mail/express view of things.

snowstorm445

Flappy Head wrote: »

Could it be anything like 2010?

No. There's no sign of a sustained cold airflow like what we saw in 2010. Anything like 2010 requires a very specific setup with high pressure to our north/west and a low pressure system to our south to drag cold our down from the north-east. Current Synoptics (the ECM) are giving us a bit of cold inclement weather followed by high pressure with a few settled days of cold and frost (but not certainly not deep cold).

2010 have really blown people's expectations for winter way out of proportion. It was a once in a lifetime event. Most people in this country had never seen or experienced snow and deep cold for that length of time (you have to go way back to 1963 for anything comparable), purely because the setup is so rare and some many things can go wrong in setting it up.

There's a lesson to be learnt from this episode. 9/10 times, charts that show extreme cold are usually wrong. If it weren't then we'd get long cold spells every few weeks, every winter, which isn't remotely the case. Cold spells in Ireland are fairly rare, cold spells showing up on the charts are ten a penny for some reason, but over time you realise that they generally unfold very infrequently. People are right to be sceptical of them when they do show up.

cml387

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

The ramping and overhyped reaction of others. And when this is questioned or tempered a bit your called bitter....or get PMs asking you to stop posting anything other than the daily mail/express view of things.

Were you around when D*r*m*n used to post? This is tame in comparison.

Villain

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

The ramping and overhyped reaction of others. And when this is questioned or tempered a bit your called bitter....or get PMs asking you to stop posting anything other than the daily mail/express view of things.

I think you are picking out a few posts to support an argument, most posters with experience will always qualify posts with "it may not happen" or "could change" etc.

When the charts show snow people ramp then when it goes pear shaped people moan, that's how model watching goes.

If you want consistent definite forecasting then create a thread for weather up to +24.

As for those saying it always downgrades, well we heard that up until 2010, told the 80's were the snow years and we are finished, then in 2010 I saw 16 inches of lying snow and -17.7c in two different cold spells in the one year. There is always a chance and while there is a chance we will always analyze and wonder.

snowstorm445

Captain Snow wrote: »

If we are to go by todays runs.....No is the answer.

I would love a 2010 setup....the models are just nothing showing it ATM.

However don,t panic yet.....

We are all looking for some sort of easterly to bring in heavy organised snow showers to the east at some time next week. Depends on the orientation any low pressure near to us.

But the west is getting that type of set up now. Heavy wintery showers. Hail sleet and snow.

As the cold becomes more entrenched the more the models will adapt.

Monday the west gets heavy wintery showers piling in off the atlantic




Tuesday the same.

Not a bad setup at all, we had a similar situation last year and many areas, outside the East, got plenty of snowy days.

Even Cork. :eek:

Captain Snow

Theirs a band of rain going to cross the country tonight when it interacts with the cold air some places may see wet snow. Mountainous areas will see lying snow

The same for tomorrow evening too.


http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=98342048&postcount=1719

StewartGriffin

Eugene Norman wrote: »

I don't understand your arguments. You said the thread was "hilarious" now you recognise the knowledge of some posters. So what's hilarious?

Not hilarious. It is a bit amusing how some tried to deflect their own disappointment by pointing fingers at all those "mad yolks" on Netweather. Also brings an evil smile to think of those who jumped onto the "Snowlercoaster ride" now sitting stranded in a puddle of damp mist. But not hilarious. No.