Cold Spell January 9th to 16th 2016

WheatenBriar

Easterly Beasterly wrote: »

HaHa.. along with all the other variables we have the IOM Shadow to contend with I suprised it hasnt been mentioned yet, there was a Bray guy on here who had a serious beef, I think his username was Calibos.. is he still around? I remember it particularly well, I lived in Bray in 2010 we did quite well, my mother lives in Shankill closer to the sea and did much better, that's how localised the streamers were

I'm closer to you now WB, I'm in Newcastle.. I hope they get this far!!!

Yeah Calibos is around still

Villain

GFS 18z pushes things back but it's the pub run

ninebeanrows

I've come to check that people aren't losing it over the 18z GFS.

Best taken with a pinch of salt, and hardly an awful solution either!

10-20% EC Ensembles go for similar troughing to our south-west and tat ridge over France. So not to be ignored as a possiblity, but certainly not favoured.

snowstorm445

I'm always one to be cautious but I have to say the level of handwringing on Netweather after a poor run is always something else, you'd swear it spell doom for the rest of the winter the way some seem to react. There seems to be a bit of a patience to Boards posters which Netweather lacks.

Be interesting to see if this run receives support from the ensemble, the last one certainly didn't.

Easterly Beasterly

Weathercheck wrote: »

I've come to check that people aren't losing it over the 18z GFS.

Best taken with a pinch of salt, and hardly an awful solution either!

10-20% EC Ensembles go for similar troughing to our south-west and tat ridge over France. So not to be ignored as a possiblity, but certainly not favoured.

I just popped over to Netweather. Holy Moly, someone needs to check on a couple of those guys to make sure they are ok, all after one run.

jack o shea

so its over before it starts then?

Padster90s

Enjoy guys! I hope it comes ☺Here in Limerick snow is exceptionally rare so not holding out much hope for the white gold! Luckily we do still get the cold so we probably won't be totally left out of the mix

Smidge

Mech1 wrote: »

Ahh 1982,,, I was a Belfast kid competing in the Aer Lingus young scientist competition. I got 2nd place in my category and won 50 Punts!!! We where snowed in at the Montrose hotel for 3 days, Bring it on again!!! Best time of my life almost.

50 punts in 82 was a fair few quid!!!

I was 6 in 82 and remember being nearly up to my neck in the snow

Musicman2000

Just had a flick threw the fax charts the UKMO are going with their own raw output.

kittyn

Smidge wrote: »

50 punts in 82 was a fair few quid!!!

I was 6 in 82 and remember being nearly up to my neck in the snow

Haha Smidge snap wasn't it just heaven ....... My first real snow experience

Mafra

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Just had a flick threw the fax charts the UKMO are going with their own raw output.

What does that mean please?

sryanbruen

The BBC are now saying that though there is 100% colder weather on the way, there is a '?' about the end of next week that if wetter weather will return

snowgal

Come on snow, come on snow, come on snow, come on!!! That is all I can say

WheatenBriar

Mafra wrote: »

What does that mean please?

The weather forecasters at the UK met office are relying mostly on their own computer model for their latest forecasting charts as opposed to other computer models
Raw means,its based entirely on the computers output, there is no human opinion changing it
Often the models disagree on an outcome and the forecasters guess at a compromise outcome blended from all models
Sometimes they run with just one,in this case their own, either out of gut instinct from their considerable experience or because of information they have available that we dont

Mafra

WheatenBriar wrote: »

The weather forecasters at the UK met office are relying mostly on their own computer model for their latest forecasting charts as opposed to other computer models
Raw means,its based entirely on the computers output, there is no human opinion changing it
Often the models disagree on an outcome and the forecasters guess at a compromise outcome blended from all models
Sometimes they run with just one,in this case their own, either out of gut instinct from their considerable experience or because of information they have available that we dont

Thank you kindly for the great explanation! ðŸ‘

TeaCup2

RobertKK wrote: »

1982 was just a molehill compared to 1947...according to the records.

And 1947 was relatively mild before the snow started in late January. Before the snow started it was rainy and stormy.

Just sayin'......

pedigree 6

Completely clueless when it comes to the charts but I saw this guy's take on the whole thing. He says this cold spell is temporary but a return to cold later on. Maybe he's a god maybe he's the antichrist but here he is.
http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

Mech1

Knine wrote: »

Ha I competed in that too. We won an award & then somehow ended up snowed in, in the old cinema on Middle Abbey Street. Good times!

You can find your entry in here so, http://issuu.com/bt_young_scientist_archive/docs/1982_young_scientists_aer_lingus click sideways on main graphic.

WheatenBriar

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Completely clueless when it comes to the charts but I saw this guy's take on the whole thing. He says this cold spell is temporary but a return to cold later on. Maybe he's a god maybe he's the antichrist but here he is.
http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

Aye Simon Keeling is one of the good guys,he's right,this may well come and go in stages

maquiladora

Well...let's see what the 0Z runs bring in the morning.

waterways

The 0Z runs bring no hot coffee at breakfast.

Calibos

Howya Lads. Whats the Craic? Did someone mention Snow??

Easterly Beasterly

Ah there you are.. pull up a seat. This feels like a school reunion I'm off work this week so said I'd stay up for the morning runs. I went back over the 2010 thread earlier and guess what, there was GFS wobbles 4/5 days prior to that spell. Met Eireann only really came on board 5/6 days ahead and their updates started with mostly dry but cold with some wintry showers. I had in my head that it was all perfect running up to that event.

I'm not saying the same will happen but it was interesting looking at the similarities.

Autonomous Cowherd

Everyone speaks of 2010, but no one seems to mention 2009, or was it a dream I had..... Both years we were snowed in solid for 27 days in the NW hills, our narrow, windy, up and down roads impassable except by tractor. Though it was in 2010 that the cold went so deep that we amused ourselves in the bitter freeze of night by stepping out onto the patio to hear the lake make loud gunshot sounds as the ice froze more solid. The first year we had not swept the first days snow from around the house before the freeze came and made an ice rink of it and walking outside was treacherous. The second year we were not caught out that way, I can tell you Those 2 peaceful months we were forced to take a step back out of time, in consecutive years, are blissful memories. I am glad to have this thread, so I can make suitable preps Thanks all.

JanuarySnowstor

Can we move on with what the models are saying!
Big differences this morning between the gfs and ukmo.
Gfs too far West and ukmo too far east.
Something in between would be a good result.
Let's see what ecm brings....

snaps

Yes the gfs is a stinker. Just brings Atlantic storms back again.

If MT is right about GEM being very good, that's gone even worse. Even floods most of Europe with summer temperatures.

Graces7

Bigus wrote: »

It gets people out of their normal routine and Makes them talk to and engage with neighbours or people they never deal with in a positive way, or God forbid solve a few problems have to and think outside the box !

I think it's only since Internet forums that the news media now put a bit of reporting on the positive aspects of snow unlike the baa humbug of previous years.

I hope we don't "git frostbit"

Rose coloured glasses! Normal routine is great.

Graces7

Nearly asleep here catching up with this as my fingers turn purple with the cold..Thanks for the snooze! Bitter cold here. Planning out as at least the car will be warm.

force eleven

Latest charts backing off from deep cold. Looks very uncertain post 120hrs out so as they say, more model runs needed....

maquiladora

Oh dear....starting to look more like a cold snap or just a more seasonal winter mix rather than a significant cold spell. Models moving in the wrong direction with further downgrades possible. There could still be snowfall episodes in such a setup, but more likely northern/hills or snow turning to rain type of events.

On a lighter note, this might be the first 20+ thread for a cold spell that never really existed. :p