Cold Spell January 9th to 16th 2016

sryanbruen

Eugene Norman wrote: »

Really? I remember 2010 being driven from the east and looking into 1982 it clearly was a easterly driven battlefield.

The north winds are moderated by the sea and are rarely that cold compared to Siberian easterlies

Yes, during the 27 November - 8 December cold spell, it was an easterly. However, from the 16th onwards when the cold air intensified even further (and produced record breaking lows in places), it was a northerly. This was because a cold front slipped southwards coming from the Arctic. So both of you would be literally correct.

Oneiric 3

Mean 500 hPa and dam for Dec '10. Polar to Arctic maritime air masses the dominant feature of that month. C/O Vedur.is

WheatenBriar

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Yes, really. Any easterly in 2010 was more just a 'returning' maritime flow with any continental influence very weak and shallow. 2010 was very much driven from the north.

Eastern north mostly though not western north, so less mid Atlantic mixing into it, none at all a lot of the time,and with potent Scandinavian direction influences some of the time which are continental

sryanbruen

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Mean 500 hPa and dam for Dec '10. Polar to Arctic maritime air masses the dominant feature of that month. C/O Vedur.is

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bG0t7I8tCE

ninebeanrows

The EC ensemble mean is best I've seen in many years. Good support for protracted cold spell.

Gonzo

as great as 2010 was, it was totally amateur hour stuff compared to the great blizzard of 1982! It's like comparing a snizzle shower from the west to a non ending easterly snow train.

Imagine if next weeks event ended up delivering a 1982 style scenario! However I doubt i'll ever see anything remotely that good again as it's a once in a lifetime event!

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

as great as 2010 was, it was totally amateur hour stuff compared to the great blizzard of 1982! It's like comparing a snizzle shower from the west to a non ending easterly snow train.

Imagine if next weeks event ended up delivering a 1982 style scenario! However I doubt i'll ever see anything remotely that good again as it's a once in a lifetime event!

Too bad I wasn't born during the 1982 "great blizzard" so I have to stay and adore 2010 sorry :o

Oneiric 3

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Eastern north mostly though not western north, so less mid Atlantic mixing into it, none at all a lot of the time,and with potent Scandinavian direction influences some of the time which are continental

I disagree, Arctic northerlies will always have Atlantic maritime air in the mix, as will northern Scandinavian highs a lot of the time, as they often develop from the 'Greenie'. A NS high is rarely a true continental one.

Villain

Siobhan is coming on board

RobertKK

Gonzo wrote: »

as great as 2010 was, it was totally amateur hour stuff compared to the great blizzard of 1982! It's like comparing a snizzle shower from the west to a non ending easterly snow train.

Imagine if next weeks event ended up delivering a 1982 style scenario! However I doubt i'll ever see anything remotely that good again as it's a once in a lifetime event!

1982 was just a molehill compared to 1947...according to the records.

Super-Rush

This scenario could break the forum.

leahyl

Can you explain Super - Rush?!!!

Iancar29

Baggy Trousers wrote: »

Have we any map showing where the snow is likely to fall i.e. N, S, E or W?

No point showing ppn charts at this range... we need the cold air to arrive first before we look for snow.

Super-Rush

leahyl wrote: »

Can you explain Super - Rush?!!!

That orange area dividing the country is supposed to be snowfall on Tuesday.

leahyl

Super-Rush wrote: »

That orange area dividing the country is supposed to be snowfall on Tuesday.

:-(

WheatenBriar

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I disagree, Arctic northerlies will always have Atlantic maritime air in the mix, as will northern Scandinavian highs a lot of the time, as they often develop from the 'Greenie'. A NS high is rarely a true continental one.

I disagree with some of what you're saying, for example, where was the flow that gave Villian his monumental snowfall in Tullow in January 2010 and subsequent incredible low night time temps? Not the western part of the north Atlantic, that was blocked, the flow at each of the crucial snowy times flowed down closer to Scotland and Norway than the mid Atlantic

Where I agree is the Artic source

No point looking at the December mean for Dec 2010 to be honest because there were a lot of northwesterlies in that month and returning Atlantic air at times when that high pressure was out west too,all in the months mean aswell as Greenland express northwesterlies
What we need to know is what route it took to get here that preserved most of its cold and a tour of the western north Atlantic was not it
Same story in Jan 87
I'm not saying theres never a maritime influence, of course there is,Im just saying where I think the least damaging maratime route is

MissMoc

Thanks to all the experts that post here, I am stuck to this thread every year!! When exactly is this event due to kick off??

Easterly Beasterly

Villain wrote: »

Siobhan is coming on board

What did she say??

Mech1

sryanbruen wrote: »

Too bad I wasn't born during the 1982 "great blizzard" so I have to stay and adore 2010 sorry :o

Ahh 1982,,, I was a Belfast kid competing in the Aer Lingus young scientist competition. I got 2nd place in my category and won 50 Punts!!! We where snowed in at the Montrose hotel for 3 days, Bring it on again!!! Best time of my life almost.

WheatenBriar

MissMoc wrote: »

Thanks to all the experts that post here, I am stuck to this thread every year!! When exactly is this event due to kick off??

Its not nailed yet.
It is looking likely it will arrive in stages starting mid next week, with ever increasing colder stages after that in bursts maybe coming and going,if you follow?
Really you'll just need to stay tuned

MissMoc

Thanks you WheatenBriar - I most certainly will be staying tuned!

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Its not nailed yet.
It is looking likely it will arrive in stages starting mid next week, with ever increasing colder stages after that in bursts maybe coming and going,if you follow?
Really you'll just need to stay tuned

Villain

Easterly Beasterly wrote: »

What did she say??

Just mentioned colder weather looks to be on the way for next week, stark contrast to the earlier Met.ie forecast but that would have been based on earlier charts

WheatenBriar

Easterly Beasterly wrote: »

What did she say??

Well guess what, She flicked her hair back,and said all the signals are for colder weather well into next week
Its about at the limit of what could responsibly be said by Glasnevin at this stage

Eugene Norman

I have 6 weather apps. Including met Eirean and BBC app and they are all over the place regarding next week.

Different models I assume.

StewartGriffin

Gonzo wrote: »

as great as 2010 was, it was totally amateur hour stuff compared to the great blizzard of 1982!

RobertKK wrote: »

1982 was just a molehill compared to 1947...according to the records.

1947 (+35 years) 1982 (+35 years) 2017. Looks like its coming a year early lads.

Easterly Beasterly

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Well guess what, She flicked her hair back,and said all the signals are for colder weather well into next week
Its about at the limit of what could responsibly be said by Glasnevin at this stage

HaHa.. along with all the other variables we have the IOM Shadow to contend with I suprised it hasnt been mentioned yet, there was a Bray guy on here who had a serious beef, I think his username was Calibos.. is he still around? I remember it particularly well, I lived in Bray in 2010 we did quite well, my mother lives in Shankill closer to the sea and did much better, that's how localised the streamers were

I'm closer to you now WB, I'm in Newcastle.. I hope they get this far!!!

Oneiric 3

WheatenBriar wrote: »

I disagree with some of what you're saying, for example, where was the flow that gave Villian his monumental snowfall in Tullow in January 2010 and subsequent incredible low night time temps? Not the western part of the north Atlantic, that was blocked, the flow at each of the crucial snowy times flowed down closer to Scotland and Norway than the mid Atlantic

Where I agree is the Artic source

No point looking at the December mean for Dec 2010 to be honest because there were a lot of northwesterlies in that month and returning Atlantic air at times when that high pressure was out west too,all in the months mean aswell as Greenland express northwesterlies
What we need to know is what route it took to get here that preserved most of its cold and a tour of the western north Atlantic was not it
Same story in Jan 87
I'm not saying theres never a maritime influence, of course there is,Im just saying where I think the least damaging maratime route is

If you look at the past records, not just Villians, you find that more likely than not the lowest winter temps will have occurred under a northerly source airflow. Doesn't really matter what route this air mass takes. the big snows here locally both in 2010 and 2000, for example, came more from NW than NE, but the source was still Arctic. This is my point.

Knine

Mech1 wrote: »

Ahh 1982,,, I was a Belfast kid competing in the Aer Lingus young scientist competition. I got 2nd place in my category and won 50 Punts!!! We where snowed in at the Montrose hotel for 3 days, Bring it on again!!! Best time of my life almost.

Ha I competed in that too. We won an award & then somehow ended up snowed in, in the old cinema on Middle Abbey Street. Good times!

snowstorm445

18z GFS looks very messed up. ECM is great though, no doubt about it.

There is a rather worrying trend towards delaying the deep cold from reaching us, back from the start of next week yesterday to about mid week today. A very familiar pattern, hoping it doesn't continue.

WheatenBriar

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

If you look at the past records, not just Villians, you find that more likely than not the lowest winter temps will have occurred under a northerly source airflow. Doesn't really matter what route this air mass takes. the big snows here locally both in 2010 and 2000, for example, came more from NW than NE, but the source was still Arctic. This is my point.

I agree with your point about the artic,even the 1982 cold was sourced there,(via Europe) but disagree that the route it takes is unimportant
Not saying, serious snow doesn't flow in from the west with an artic flow down the centre of it, of course it does and has but the pesky Atlantic becomes boss and shunts it away too quickly in my experience