Cold Spell January 9th to 16th 2016

ninebeanrows

After some slight disagreement yesterday, the Numerical Weather Models in the last 24 hours have become increasingly aligned and all signal at a significant cold spell, the first of the winter, and perhaps the most substantial cold incursion for a few years.

This evenings EC suite is mouth-watering and builds on strong Ensemble support on the 00z output.

There is now cross-model support for a cold spell, with the key building blocks taking place from around 120hrs.

All major global NWP models are aligned..

GFS


UKM


ECMWF



Further ahead

It seems nailed on we will enter a spell of around 5 days of cold weather with wintry showers and harsh frosts.

Some models want to prolong the cold incursion further and feed in an unstable north-easterly flow, extending the cold spell into what could be a potentially major mid-winter freeze.

EC @ 240hrs




To conclude:

So a major change on the way, time to get your winter clothing sorted and ensure fuel supplies are plentiful.

The good news is it will be much drier and generally much brighter with good periods of sunshine likely. But as the cold spell extends there is the increasing chance of a widespread snow-event.

Snow-fall distribution, heights etc, to be ironed out in the coming days, as the synoptic will evolve in the coming days.

Eugene Norman

When MT comes on board I'll be excira

JanuarySnowstor

I wonder will flooded areas freeze over?

pad199207

I've been waiting for that thread title since..... Well 2010!

clever user name

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

A decent shot of what though? Its January after the warmest December on record. Any significant drop in temperatures is going to seem cold relatively speaking. We are talking about Friday week? Very early days.

Yes of course, it is early days. And the models will probably change to some extent. But what they are showing right now is prolonged (proper) wintry weather. I haven't seen winter charts like these since 2010. Even more unusual to have all the major models agreeing with each other (slight differences of course).
Nothing set in stone though. Could just end up in short cold snap.

elastico

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I wonder will flooded areas freeze over?

Would be some nightmare if they were left with 6" thick frozen ice around the outside of the house and all the water underneath drained away.

BLIZZARD7

AO forecast to drop off the scale...

maquiladora

That's it jinxed now!

Eugene Norman

leahyl wrote: »

Not being a debbie downer but some of the charts I've seen just now are for a week away! Surely there's a big chance of these changing again....?!

In order to enjoy the weather forum when there's a potential cold spell you've got to learn to love the models as much as the reality.

gally74

maquiladora wrote: »

That's it jinxed now!

What's that ????mageddon word?

Tabnabs

Isn't the timing pretty bang on with MTs early season winter weather prediction? Damn he's good!

magentis

Hmmm,interesting.So is it due to hit in 120hrs?

weisses

Thread okay ... But to stick a level 1 on it so far out

WheatenBriar

magentis wrote: »

Hmmm,interesting.So is it due to hit in 120hrs?

Well don't expect to wake up to a foot of snow in 5 days time but if this thing holds together, are you ready for conditions to arrive that would over a few days as it goes on and sets in increase the likelihood of snow (a lot)?

Assetbacked

Hardly a major change; it's already so cold!

Villain

Lots of signals pointing the right way and even some SSW looking possible but we could have a few false dawns so don't all throw the toys out of the pram if this downgrades!

Villain

Assetbacked wrote: »

Hardly a major change; it's already so cold!

LOL if you think this is cold you could be in for a shock :P

Azalea

Assetbacked wrote: »

Hardly a major change; it's already so cold!

It's really mild for January - for the whole winter so far - in my opinion. Virtually no frost yet where I am. Not even a need for heating every day.

WheatenBriar

Villain wrote: »

Lots of signals pointing the right way and even some SSW looking possible but we could have a few false dawns so don't all throw the toys out of the pram if this downgrades!

Aye,weather fora like NW Two and here are littered with the corpses of false dawns eg jan 2007

gerrybhoy

Assetbacked wrote: »

Hardly a major change; it's already so cold!

So cold?? Nearly at tshirt n shorts stages the past few weeks ffs

nacho libre

If there is no major downgrade in the next 48- 72 hours, and we are due an event akin to December 2010,
I hope Gerry Murphy gets to deliver the good news
of snowmageddon coming

_Kaiser_

Great news.. even more traffic chaos than normal ahead so

Azalea

gerrybhoy wrote: »

So cold?? Nearly at tshirt n shorts stages the past few weeks ffs

Maybe they mean it's "damp cold". Still though, totally different to dry cold.

Iancar29

Hmm don't think it warrants a warning at this stage.

But I do remember in 2010 all models caught it nice and early too... :rolleyes:

DOCARCH

Iancar29 wrote: »

Hmm don't think it warrants a warning at this stage.

Agreed...I have removed warning as I think it may be premature.

kittyn

DOCARCH wrote: »

Agreed...I have removed warning as I think it may be premature.

Ah don't be a spoil sport 😂😂

rickdangerouss

BBC weather agrees with some type of cold spell next week.


http://www.bbc.com/weather/features/35248338

Oneiric 3

EC en run out to day 10: Looks very conservative to me, but plenty of scope for change.




In response to various posts about needing a -9 850 profile for snow. I say not necessarily. The snow that hit here on afternoon/eve the 24th Nov 2010 (the start of the 'big one) occurred with an upper temp profile of -5 to -7c.

Rock Lesnar

If the bbc are talking about a cold spell now, i'll believe it, they've been spot on so far with the rain here in the north east this winter.

KathleenF

I've nothing to contribute to this forum in terms of knowledge or analysis but can I just say as a snow fiend that. I. Am. LOVING. This. Thread.

Kermit.de.frog

Things are definitely going in the "right" (wrong for some) direction for a bit of shock to the system but caution should also be applied too. I'll give it 3 more days.

elastico

RTE weather holding fire for now anyway. Just mentioning a bit colder but nothing out of the ordinary.

WheatenBriar

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Things are definitely going in the "right" (wrong for some) direction for a bit of shock to the system but caution should also be applied too. I'll give it 3 more days.

The lack of input from you lately has been a real sign of the lack of potential up to now
But yes I agree, the old saying (many) more runs needed rings true

Mech1

camera / ruler and Ladder at the ready

United road

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Things are definitely going in the "right" (wrong for some) direction for a bit of shock to the system but caution should also be applied too. I'll give it 3 more days.

Just seeing Kermit back gives me hope!
God i have missed you Kermit!

I can only assume you are very quietly optimistic on this one!
Please let it be so!!

Kermit.de.frog

WheatenBriar wrote: »

The lack of input from you lately has been a real sign of the lack of potential up to now
But yes I agree, the old saying (many) more runs needed rings true

Not really that so much although it has been a bit depressing in the last 3 months. I'd like to contribute more but i'm too busy. I will make time though when interesting charts start to appear! I'm looking for a northeast pivot but the charts as they stand now broadly have snow potential for a good chunk of the country. Struggle to get much action in the east and southeast with a northwesterly at this time of year unless there is trough lines in there to enhance activity which can't even be speculated on this far out.

Iancar29

* In David Attenborough voice*


"As the cold charts start to appear, the snowbies slowly emerge from their hibernation in search of white gold... " :pac:

KungPao

Just my luck...

Going away next Wednesday morning...the first flakes will probably be falling as my flight leaves the tarmac.

Bah.

Could be weird: 0 degrees and snowy to 30 degrees in one day.

Scubadevils

Can't remember when I last posted here... probably back in the wonderful winter of 2010, I still swing by and check in the hope of a Weathercheck thread like this, bring it on :cool:

Villain

Mech1 wrote: »

camera / ruler and Ladder at the ready

Feck that drone at the ready!!

WheatenBriar

Villain wrote: »

Feck that drone at the ready!!

Will it climb to the 850 level :pac:

Spanish Eyes

Snow boots out of hibernation tonight, together with those amazing yokes that you attach to yer shoes with spikes. Funny they were all over the place AFTER the snow melted in 2010!

And I found my walking poles with interchangeable spikes and rubber tips. Yippee.

Unfortunately I don't have any skis or a snowboard. But I can live without them really.

I am so organised now, but will I actually need them in the end?

Villain

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Will it climb to the 850 level :pac:

Not quiet

irish1967

(Stretches) Hibernation over... Looks around... Ah still a few familiar faces still here since 2010.

yellowlabrador

Here are 2 baskets. Umbrellas in the left one, toys in the right one.

maquiladora

A step in the wrong direction from the 18Z GFS.
Just when it looked like the big three were coming into agreement.

leahyl

maquiladora wrote: »

A step in the wrong direction from the 18Z GFS.
Just when it looked like the big three were coming into agreement.

*sob :-(

To Alcohol

Can we mention the legendary word "Thundersnow" yet?

Oscar Bravo

here in castlebar its been so dull for the past month or more not forgetting all the rain. really looking forward to some crisp clear blue skies by day and hopefully some snow showers to! i would not be getting to excited about the prospect of snow this far out out but hey its better than the current set up. the band of rain crossing now will probably be the last organised rain belt for a while

Villain

The good old pub run doesn't want to play ball

Clonmel1000

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Snow boots out of hibernation tonight, together with those amazing yokes that you attach to yer shoes with spikes. Funny they were all over the place AFTER the snow melted in 2010!

And I found my walking poles with interchangeable spikes and rubber tips. Yippee.



Unfortunately I don't have any skis or a snowboard. But I can live without them really.

I am so organised now, but will I actually need them in the end?

Lols