Cold Spell January 9th to 16th 2016

Reckless Abandonment

12z looking a bit shaky. Maybe even bad. Greenland hight getting cut off.

cherryghost

Complete breakdown.

Iancar29

And this is why we should've just stayed in the FI thread guys.... Fantasy island is name that for a reason.

MidMan25

Time for a Level 3 warning? Flying toys rapidly approaching from the Netweather model thread.

WheatenBriar

I've only went to T100ish on the UKMO tbh and on that I see the NW flow next week sourced in central Europe travelling out over Norway to us via areas with probably -16 to -20 850 temps,
Now if thats the case,we in the east will be looking on in envy at the snow pics from the Northwest and west probably?

Lets see whats in the Ecm?

cherryghost

As usual the netweather guys make excuses why GFS isn't accurate and move to GEM who promises better outlook for them. ECM in a few hours it is then.

Larbre34

Raelynn Loose Mocha wrote: »

Don't know why as there's no basis for this, but I'm feeling positive for the former.

And now?

space2ground1

space2ground1 wrote: »

I'm not a meteorologist but I've a science background so I really am enjoying this. What Im also fascinated about is the repeated hopes up, hopes dashed effect of the charts in previous years. I keep thinking, can't this be done better given how often the 144+ charts are wrong? My only thought would be an injection of probability and weighting into the chart algorithm. i.e. We've had a roasting winter with a warm jet stream dominant. We don't get these conditions often.. at a guess we get a comparable actual result compared to the chart maybe 20% of the time we see them on the 144+. Why not build in an element of probability into the design? We seem to see them in FI predicting 10 of the 2 snow events we might get in a 6-10 year period. We give out to the postman for less.

I'm off to get my crayons to design my probability focussed 20 day weather prediction system. Seems I'd make a fortune. FI seems utterly pointless to me. I really don't understand why its even released as a resource. It seems generally wrong and there's cheaper ways to be wrong.

Larbre34

It always makes me laugh that there is abject disappointment on NW and a milder version on here.

Which solution verifies 95% of the time in these things? The milder one, from the dominant climatic influence, the Atlantic......

littlema

MidMan25 wrote: »

Time for a Level 3 warning? Flying toys rapidly approaching from the Netweather model thread.

I predict further flooding.......from the salty tears & gnashing of teeth due to shocking disappointment

Villain

cherryghost wrote: »

As usual the netweather guys make excuses why GFS isn't accurate and move to GEM who promises better outlook for them. ECM in a few hours it is then.

Ah but GEM lives up to its name!

Still plenty to play for, +72 is probably FI for any real fine details. That PV doesn't look solid, plenty of hope left in this winter yet!

pad199207

Yeah at this stage now there's no point on the coldies on NW trying to cover up the fact that the trend has certainly backtracked with there "boom" chart from the GEM.
Will still be much colder next week but the 2010 esque goodies promised by recent runs look like a thing of the past!

Reckless Abandonment

Well the good thing is it can only be upgrades from here on in. Next week looking normal ish winter weather (cool/cold), and MT never really bought into anything fantastic for now, he's always hinted at late Jan/Feb for the more exciting stuff to arrive.

maquiladora

#blowtorch



Seriously though, GFS has a few nights with temperatures getting down to zero, one night of getting a few degrees colder than that, the odd wintry shower - then it's over.

If you set your expectations at that level now you won't be disappointed, because I don't think at this stage this is enough time for that to downgrade any further than that.

Wouldn't expect any short term upgrades but there may still be changes that keep the cooler weather around a bit longer. FI is still FI and will change again tomorrow.

homolumo

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Well the good thing is it can only be upgrades from here on in. Next week looking normal ish winter weather (cool/cold), and MT never really bought into anything fantastic for now, he's always hinted at late Jan/Feb for the more exciting stuff to arrive.

You do know MT has been wrong before

Reckless Abandonment

homolumo wrote: »

You do know MT has been wrong before

So have all the models

ninebeanrows

Very interesting output. From significant ensemble support on last nights 12z we now have a range of solutions once more. All about actually seeing height rises over Greenland. It is the hardest thing to predict.

However looking at the way things are trending it would appear a real blast if deep cold Is less likely in near term. What is increasingly likely though is marginal snow-events. With the frontal boundary near Ireland. Lots of fun and games ahead. It would be too easy if a clean progression had occurred. That's why we are all here, because our favoured synoptics are elusive and the models always have difficulting handling it. The EC will be followed with keen interest

Eugene Norman

droidman123 wrote: »

Its january and it going to get cold? Well who would of ever thought!

People who remember Dec 2015. Old timers.

Oneiric 3

To be honest, I'd take what the latest charts are showing at present as we need some dry, cool weather at this stage to not only help mop up the super saturated ground but to give those folks who have had lost nearly everything in those areas that have suffered terribly with flooding some respite. Parts of Cork and Kerry have already recorded up to 100 mm of rain this month so far (and its only the 8th yet) and this on the back on a incredibly wet December and November. We really need another Feb '86, super dry, super easterly.

km79

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

To be honest, I'd take what the latest charts are showing at present as we need some dry, cool weather at this stage to help not only to help mop up the super saturated ground but to give those folks who have had lost nearly everything in those areas that have suffered terribly with flooding some respite. Parts of Cork and Kerry have already recorded up to 100 mm of rain this month so far (and its only the 8th yet) and this on the back on a incredibly wet December and November. We really need another Feb '86, super dry, super easterly.

could not agree more

MJohnston

Yeah, as much as I'd love a Nov/Dec 2010 repeat (at least after my in-laws have flown away off again anyway), I'll take a cold and dry spell very happily. Today was nearly gorgeous if it had been just a touch less breezy, and yesterday was lovely too. So much better than the non-stop conveyor belt of misery that was December 2015.

sryanbruen

Come on we deserve this dry and cold snowy weather!

*4 snowless winters
*Very wet and unseasonably warm November & December

Stupid FI Charts, change back!

Oneiric 3

pad199207 wrote: »

Usually post 18:00hrs

Best leave it until 7pm. Nothing more frustratingly annoying than waiting for the next updated frame. I think it would be great if those who ran their chart sites waited for the whole suite to be complete before upgrading it to the latest run.

Gonzo

looks like its basically all over for now but at least its a step in the right direction as next week will still be cold but more importantly dry and frosty which will a first for this season. The garden will nnow have a chance to dry out and become less of a swamp. Maybe we'll get lucky with some snow towards the end of January or up to last week of February.

ninebeanrows

Gonzo wrote: »

looks like its basically all over for now but at least its a step in the right direction as next week will still be cold but more importantly dry and frosty which will a first for this season. The garden will nnow have a chance to dry out and become less of a swamp. Maybe we'll get lucky with some snow towards the end of January or up to last week of February.

You never change Gonzo!! You've double cross jinxed it now, you will be posting about 3feet drifts next weekend now!

snowstorm445

Personally I'm blaming Weathercheck for this. Call me superstitious but clearly starting a thread about a possible cold spell well before it starts is meddling with fate. For the sake of our snowy prospects, from now on anyone who does something similar should be banned. :pac:

Clonmel1000

Funniest thread on boards this year.

droidman123

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Funniest thread on boards this year.

But its great for cabaret-esque entertainmentðŸ˜႒ mother nature is up to her old tricks again making a mockery of weather "predictions"

Eugene Norman

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Funniest thread on boards this year.

Another typically bitter post.

The thread was started by people who know their stuff about models. They aren't paid to provide a public service so they don't have to worry about getting it wrong as te models change, but they can read existing models and those models were showing a prolonged cold spell. They explained what they were seeing. Replies were good humoured. Except your standard bitter posts, and a few others who dont like snow. Then the models changed and people with good humour accepted that.

Your bitter posts continued though.

Villain

ECM moving the wrong way too but still cool