Cold Spell January 9th to 16th 2016

jack o shea

there is a better chance of snow falling on bondi beach than there is in ireland

Rock Lesnar

I don't care if i don't see one snowflake, i just want a spell of dry weather

TheMilkyPirate

Haven't posted here in a while, Always lurking though.

Wouldn't be too upset about the 18z if the GFS 18z was the only model showing a very cold spell while all the rest showed normal conditions, You'd put your house on the other models so why not when roles are reversed.

You always get a few bad runs in the lead up to cold it's part of the fun.

vistafinder

jack o shea wrote: »

there is a better chance of snow falling on bondi beach than there is in ireland

Laters

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKvhxapM5zo

Kermit.de.frog

jack o shea wrote: »

there is a better chance of snow falling on bondi beach than there is in ireland

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsqJFIJ5lLs

pauldry

Lads. Obligatory first word.

Its my birthday on Jan 10 and Ive ordered some snow off amazon..

Hope it doesnt melt in the post

Nabber

force eleven

GFS later run was a bit wobbly. Still looks good for colder weather though. As always, don't worry about when where and if snow will fall. Get the building blocks in place first. Then we'll see.

BLIZZARD7

GFS 00z takes longer to get the cold uppers over us, however the pattern is much improved with WAA pumping up the western side of Greenland and a beautiful high blows up over Greenland with this- Atlantic completely locked off = Colder air steaming in from the north east at +180hrs onwards.

snaps

After that gfs run, the next ecm is a huge one. The touch and go cold has been put way into fi again.
Perhaps just a blip?

Graces7

Saganist wrote: »

If things are still looking like this in the next few days I think it's time to



:pac::pac:

If that happened to you you would....Well stocked up here for any eventuality . Predictable gathering here! Shakes head! Ah well; up here, 400 asl South Kerry mountains I have already seen snow twice from the back door and am happy for it to stay atop. Difference between deep rural and city is that as soon as snow is mentioned city folk get over excited whereas we deep rural become very very practical and organised supply wise. My reaction thus is to check stores and make sure when I am at the garage tomorrow I bring in enough fuel etc for the duration and hoping my pension arrives today. Not a happy thought if not...Thankfully here I have a good landlord who works for the council ( roads) and the shop 2 miles away will deliver coal if need be and folk have tractors. Do not want to have to ask... Thinking though of the effect of hard frost on flooded areas.... OK, sorted!

Easterly Beasterly

To my untrained eye it looks like there is a trend this morning to keep the really cold uppers away from us. Yesterday we were looking at -7s for Ireland looks like -4s this morning. This thing isn't nailed on yet.

rickdangerouss

Waiting for our MT daily forecast, like I have 100 million housing shares on the Chinese stock exchange.

Easterly Beasterly

I'm wondering though is it a case of high risk for high reward? Do you want low pressure systems to come into play to bring the potential of heavy snow? Also would it be a fair assessment that if this was the case that it would introduce more of an easterly or NE element as these run close to us with cold air in place? Sorry for the questions, I'm still learning and look at the charts as they come out and try and figure out what's happening

rickdangerouss

I am happy with building blocks that leads to something and not below.

rickdangerouss

MT's forecast = heart broken if that came to pass, compared to yesterdays models.

lapua20grain

http://www.bbc.com/weather/features/35248338
look at 1:54 onwards

JanuarySnowstor

Met eireann very cautious also
A step back this morning from ecm.
On the face of it still v good BUT the big problem is it leaves no margin for error.
The azores low travels any further north and we get a very different result

Rock Lesnar

Does it even look like we might get a dry spell

Oneiric 3

EC mean showing a stronger ridge towards Greenland at day 10.

force eleven

Bit wishy washy this morning, the outlook is not really certain. 4-6 degrees next week and drier. Odd wintry shower. Meh. Let's see as timeframes get closer.

uck51js9zml2yt

What we want and what we need are totally opposite.
We don't need snow....but my boots arrived yesterday for real snow in February at 500 meters asl.:)

KingdomRushed

force eleven wrote: »

Bit wishy washy this morning, the outlook is not really certain. 4-6 degrees next week and drier. Odd wintry shower. Meh. Let's see as timeframes get closer.

ECM is showing a blizzard crossing the country next Thursday. It's marginal, but on the right side of marginal, especially north of Dublin Galway line. Followed by icy air sweeping in from north. It's more than the odd wintry shower I think. Of course it will change but that's what the models are showing as of now.

Incidentally, the odd wintry shower is being reported this morning in Cork and Kerry. Snow falling in many places. People reporting it on Twitter.

maquiladora

Personally I love seeing the GFS and ECM throwing low pressure into the mix this morning. A northerly by itself is never going to produce much more than showers in northwest /northern parts unless a polar low spins up. And I'm not a fan of cold just the sake of cold.
But eject a low from the south up against the cold air and you've got some very exciting weather potentially...The likes of which haven't been seen in decades.

screamer

Well I love snow usually but after the deluge of rain and miserable wind for the first time ever I don't care if I don't see a single snowflake. I'll take bright set crisp mornings instead. My little girl though would love snow so if we get one day of snow like we did last year she'll be happy.
I think snow risk is always marginal in ireland so nothing new to us with these forecasts, is it?

drunkmonkey

And it's snowing mad in Tipp : )

Graces7

Started a snow thread but you may want to merge it? Surrounded by snowy mountains here in South kerry. I am 400 asl and the peaks are maybe 2-3oo ft higher.. dark snow coloured clouds wading in.. will try for photos later.

WheatenBriar

Easterly Beasterly wrote: »

I'm wondering though is it a case of high risk for high reward? Do you want low pressure systems to come into play to bring the potential of heavy snow? Also would it be a fair assessment that if this was the case that it would introduce more of an easterly or NE element as these run close to us with cold air in place? Sorry for the questions, I'm still learning and look at the charts as they come out and try and figure out what's happening

You don't want lows too soon in your location or you'll have a cold rainy mess on the east coast with wet snow from lamb doyles to Rathdrum
Its a case of patience for now, models will chop and change with various solutions when they're not certain of the starting point yet if you understand?
The UKMO forecasters are pretty confident that the jet will dive down to the middle if not south of France meaning I'm not confident that lows will track north of the cork or Waterford coast at their furthest during that which is a win win for dragging in more and more entrenched cold (and shower trains) from Scandinavia and the Irish sea with the same areas as 2010 favoured,given the circulation caused by Atlantic blocking and the lows if any,if you get me?

Outside of that,same scenario applies to areas favoured by northerlies and northwesterlies,so Im expecting eventually snow reports from across Ulster,Connaught and west Munster too at various times
All of the above of course comes with the caveat of if this continues to pan out as it is

Graces7

screamer wrote: »

Well I love snow usually but after the deluge of rain and miserable wind for the first time ever I don't care if I don't see a single snowflake. I'll take bright set crisp mornings instead. My little girl though would love snow so if we get one day of snow like we did last year she'll be happy.
I think snow risk is always marginal in ireland so nothing new to us with these forecasts, is it?

I love to see the mountain peaks snow sprinkled as they are now, the nearer back layer deeper and the range behind that thickly covered. The beauty without the hassle; and there IS hassle for so many as we are so bad at dealing with snow in this country. I lived years on a small Scottish island and they knew how to deal with snow there. The rubbish collecting lorry had a snow plough attachment and if that got stuck, there were tractor and it made great spectator stuff from the safety of the cottage. My home help there would arrive on her husband's tractor with my shopping.

Graces7

WheatenBriar wrote: »

You don't want lows too soon in your location or you'll have a cold rainy mess on the east coast with wet snow from lamb doyles to Rathdrum
Its a case of patience for now, models will chop and change with various solutions when they're not certain of the starting point yet if you understand?
The UKMO forecasters are pretty confident that the jet will dive down to the middle if not south of France meaning I'm not confident that lows will track north of the cork or Waterford coast at their furthest during that which is a win win for dragging in more and more entrenched cold (and shower trains) from Scandinavia and the Irish sea with the same areas as 2010 favoured,given the circulation caused by Atlantic blocking and the lows if any,if you get me?

Outside of that,same scenario applies to areas favoured by northerlies and northwesterlies,so Im expecting eventually snow reports from across Ulster,Connaught and west Munster too at various times
All of the above of course comes with the caveat of if this continues to pan out as it is[/QUOTE Already in from South Kerry...