Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 20-04-2013 07:51AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 20 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Morning mist dissipating then sunny intervals with increasing cloud from west, showers or patchy drizzle 30% probable in west and north by afternoon or evening. Highs near 14 C except 11-13 C in Ulster.

TONIGHT ... Occasional light to moderate rain, but well timed to let up shortly after sunrise, 5-8 mm in some western and northern counties, 2-5 mm southeast. Lows 4-7 C.

SUNDAY ... Morning drizzle ending, then partly cloudy to sunny, becoming rather windy (WSW 40-60 km/hr) with risk of afternoon showers developing in most regions, but more frequent in the north, highs 12 to 14 C. One or two showers could become heavy in the midlands. Rainfalls in the 2-5 mm range.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, slight risk of showers or patchy light rain covering parts of the west and north, rather warm with highs 14-17 C. Some low cloud or fog drifting in from Atlantic at times near west coast. Best chance of bright or sunny intervals east of Dublin and Wicklow mountains where it should also be warmest thanks to the downsloping foehn effect.

TUESDAY ... Overnight light rain becoming patchy by morning again, then sunny intervals despite widespread higher cloud, relatively warm with highs 15-18 C (warmest in the east and southeast). Rather muggy.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, a band of light rain may sink south during the day but could also dry out or become very patchy (1-3 mm range), coastal fog or low cloud developing in west, highs about 16 to 19 C (warmest in east).

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, chance of light rain developing in north, highs about 16 C south and 13 C north.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, becoming rather breezy and turning a bit cooler with highs 11 to 14 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK (27th-28th) ... Mostly cloudy, some sunny intervals, rather cool with scattered showers, highs 9-12 C.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with sunny breaks, isolated brief showers, highs 13-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals developing, lows 3-7 C with isolated frost in north-central England and inland Scotland.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers, one or two heavier with thunder in parts of Wales, Midlands, north-central England. Less showery south coast and London. Highs 14-18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland, generally warmer than recent weeks with near normal amounts of rainfall, possibly even below average in some parts of the south. Highs generally 14-17 C but south could edge up towards 20 C at times. Due to a westerly flow, the warmer locations will be in eastern counties.

Forecasts for North America

Generally turning colder in the eastern states with rain moving away into the Atlantic, cloudy with westerly winds at 30-50 km/hr and highs 12-15 C. This will trend to mostly sunny in the southeast and 17-20 C with low humidity, so rather cool for that region. Further west, warming up gradually into the low to mid 20s under mostly sunny skies in Texas and 25-30 C in the desert southwest region. A fairly large and sprawling storm system centered in Alberta will bring valley rains and mountain snows to the U.S. west (north of about the Grand Canyon to Denver CO) trending to wet snow or sleet in more northerly locations including much of the snowbound northern plains and prairies (now running 10 deg below normal for April). The west coast will be cloudy and damp with light showers at times, then clearing later.

My local weather on Friday was cloudy with light rain, chilly at 9 C.

M.T. Cranium · 21-04-2013 07:44AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 21 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain tapering to drizzle about 0900h across the east with isolated showers following in northern counties, then partly cloudy (sunny intervals more frequent south), becoming rather windy (WSW 40-60 km/hr) with risk of heavier afternoon showers developing in some regions, but more frequent in the north, highs 12 to 14 C. One or two showers could become heavy in the midlands and inland north. Further rainfalls in the 2-5 mm range.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, cloud increasing toward morning, lows 4-7 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, slight risk of showers or patchy light rain covering parts of the west and north, drizzle extending further east for a time, rather warm and muggy with highs 13-16 C. Some low cloud or fog drifting in from Atlantic at times near west coast. Best chance of bright or sunny intervals south central inland counties and east of Dublin and Wicklow mountains where it should also be warmest thanks to the downsloping foehn effect.

TUESDAY ... Overnight light rain becoming patchy by morning again, then sunny intervals despite widespread higher cloud, relatively warm with highs 15-19 C (warmest in the east and southeast). Rather muggy.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, a band of light rain may sink south during the day but could also dry out or become very patchy (1-3 mm range), coastal fog or low cloud developing in west, highs about 16 to 18 C (warmest in east).

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, chance of light rain developing in north, highs about 16 C south and 13 C north. Turning considerably cooler in north during the afternoon and evening, moderate northerly winds developing there.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, becoming rather breezy (NNW 30-50 km/hr) and turning a bit cooler again with highs 11 to 14 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK (27th-28th) ... Mostly cloudy, some sunny intervals, rather cool with scattered showers, highs 9-12 C except 12-14 C south. Risk of slight frosts returning.

FURTHER OUTLOOK (29 Apr to 7 May) ... This period is looking rather cool and not overly wet but with some risk of prolonged light rainfalls in the south, as an easterly flow develops. Temperatures may average 2-3 C below normal.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Increasing cloud, showers, one or two heavier with thunder in parts of Wales, Midlands, north-central England. Less showery south coast and London. Highs 14-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain ending, partial clearing with mist or fog patches. Lows 4-7 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland, generally warmer than recent weeks with near normal amounts of rainfall, possibly even below average in some parts of the south. Highs generally 14-17 C but south could edge up towards 20 C at times. Due to a westerly flow, the warmer locations will be in eastern counties. Turning much colder from north to south Thursday and Friday, then chilly for several days.

Forecasts for North America

Dry and rather cool in the east, although moderating somewhat compared with yesterday (around 12-15 C). Rain spreading across Florida with the cloud moving further north into parts of the inland southeast, east winds and humid (20 C). Mild to warm in south-central states and very warm desert southwest, outbreaks of sleet or rain further north in Great Basin region and Rockies, cold with snow at times in northern plains and Canadian prairies. The west coast will be turning warmer under a developing ridge of high pressure.

My local weather on Saturday was mostly cloudy with highs near 11 C.

M.T. Cranium · 22-04-2013 07:29AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 22 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy this morning, showers or patchy light rain, drizzle moving across the country but generally dying out by mid-day, then some sunny intervals developing and rather warm and muggy with highs 13-16 C. Some low cloud or fog drifting in from Atlantic at times near west coast. Best chance of bright or sunny intervals south central inland counties and east of Dublin and Wicklow mountains where it should also be warmest thanks to the downsloping foehn effect, in moderate WSW winds 30-50 km/hr. Another good opportunity for photographers this evening with variable amounts of higher cloud at sunset. Feeling somewhat muggy especially in the south.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy intervals, mild, lows about 7 C with some fog or mist patches and coastal drizzle near the Atlantic coasts.

TUESDAY ... Any overnight drizzle or light rain becoming patchy during the morning again, then a few sunny intervals despite widespread higher cloud, relatively warm with highs 15-19 C (warmest in the east and southeast). Rather muggy.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, a band of light rain may sink south during the day but could also dry out or become very patchy (1-3 mm range), coastal fog or low cloud developing in west, highs about 16 to 18 C (warmest in east) although it will probably be closer to 13 C in the north.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, chance of light rain developing in north, highs about 16 C south and 13 C north. Some heavier showers could develop by afternoon, some of these thundery with hail. Turning considerably cooler in north during the afternoon and evening, moderate northerly winds developing there. Temperatures falling to 4-6 C by evening.

FRIDAY ... After quite a cold start, lows 2-4 C, with sleety showers in northerly winds, the day will continue mostly cloudy, becoming rather breezy (NNW 30-50 km/hr) and very cool with highs 11 to 13 C south and 8 to 10 C north.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK (27th-28th) ... Mostly cloudy, some sunny intervals, rather cool with scattered showers, highs 9-12 C except 12-14 C south. Risk of slight frosts returning. It may become slightly milder than Friday, as winds turn more to the W-NW, but it won't return quite to seasonal normals.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, breezy and cold, highs only 8-11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK (29 Apr to 7 May) ... This period is looking rather cool at first, and not overly wet but with some risk of prolonged light rainfalls in the south, as an easterly flow develops. Temperatures may average 2-3 C below normal but it could warm up considerably towards the second week of May.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few light showers or intervals of drizzle, mist ... somewhat drier towards the southeast although mostly cloudy ... highs 15-17.

TONIGHT ... Misty, some drizzle or light rain at times, clearing towards morning in some areas, with dense fog to follow ... lows 5-7 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland, generally warmer than recent weeks with near normal amounts of rainfall, possibly even below average in some parts of the south. Highs generally 14-17 C but south could edge up towards 20 C at times. Due to a westerly flow, the warmer locations will be in eastern counties. Turning much colder from north to south Thursday and Friday, with a sharp fall in temperatures especially in eastern regions where a strong N to NE wind is likely to blast in from the North Sea, and then chilly for several days. Much warmer again around 3-7 May.

Forecasts for North America

A slowly developing storm over Wyoming is spreading yet another snowfall across parts of the northern plains, while it stays dry and cold near the border and into western Canada. A weaker system towards the Washington-Idaho border is spreading showers and mountain snow flurries through the central and northern Rockies. These lows will move out into the plains states today and set off a rather limited area of heavy thunderstorms in Kansas and Missouri. Further south, it will become hot and dry (32-38 C) with desert air streaming into Texas and Oklahoma. This will not push very far east before running into a cooler, moist flow from the southeast, but there's only scattered drizzle with that and a lot of lower cloud, highs near 20 C. Sprawling high pressure over New England is bringing cool and dry weather with a fair amount of cloud to the northeast states, Great Lakes and Midwest. Highs are about 8-12 C.

My local weather on Sunday was cloudy with a few sunny intervals, and scattered rather heavy showers. Highs were only 7-8 C, but we're now looking at considerably warmer weather for the rest of the week as a strong ridge over the Pacific builds east.

M.T. Cranium · 23-04-2013 08:10AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 23 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Any overnight drizzle or light rain in west or north soon fading away, cloud may be rather persistent but could burn off in some parts of south and east to allow another warm(ish) day with highs 15-19 C (warmest in the east and southeast, inland south where it could feel rather muggy). With more cloud and a slightly cooler westerly flow, parts of the north could stay closer to 12-14 C with low cloud or mist over hills.

TONIGHT ... Light rain at times, more persistent in west and north, 2-5 mm amounts likely, mild with lows about 8-11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast with a band of light rain sinking southward during the day but some regions could see breaks by mid-day or afternoon as rain is only expected to reach about 1-3 mm ... coastal fog or low cloud developing in west, highs about 13 to 16 C (warmest in east and inland south) although it will probably be closer to 12-13 C in the north.

THURSDAY ... After a somewhat cooler night with lows 5-7 C, the day will continue rather cloudy, with light rain developing in north, highs about 14 C south and 12 C north. Some heavier showers could develop by afternoon, moving further south and some of these could become thundery with hail. Turning considerably cooler in north during the afternoon and evening, moderate northerly winds developing there. Temperatures falling to 4-6 C by evening as winds freshen from north.

FRIDAY ... After quite a cold start, lows 2-4 C, with sleety showers in northerly winds, the day will continue mostly cloudy, becoming rather breezy (NNW 30-50 km/hr) and very cool with highs 11 to 13 C south and 8 to 10 C north.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK (27th-28th) ... Mostly cloudy, some sunny intervals, rather cool with long dry intervals and just a few widely separated showers, becoming more frequent later Sunday. Highs 9-12 C except 12-14 C south. Risk of slight frosts returning Saturday and Sunday mornings, but that chill should modify quickly before most people are out and about (7-10 C around 0800h). It will become slightly milder than Friday during the daytime hours, as winds turn more to the W-NW, but it won't return quite to seasonal normals. However, any sunshine will feel quite warm on Saturday as winds should be relatively light, northerly backing through north-westerly. Sunday will be more cloudy with the approach of fronts from the north and late day showers or rainfall.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, breezy and cold, highs only 8-11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK (29 Apr to 7 May) ... (may amend this later, guidance has been very slow coming in overnight) This period is looking rather cool at first, and not overly wet but with some risk of prolonged light rainfalls in the south, as an easterly flow develops. Temperatures may average 2-3 C below normal but it could warm up considerably towards the second week of May.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, warm and muggy in south, highs 16-20 C, a few showers further north at times, highs 13-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, rain arriving in western and northern regions later, lows about 8-11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland, generally warmer than recent weeks with near normal amounts of rainfall, possibly even below average in some parts of the south. Highs generally 14-17 C but south could edge up towards 20 C at times. Due to a westerly flow, the warmer locations will be in eastern counties. Turning much colder from north to south Thursday and Friday, with a sharp fall in temperatures especially in eastern regions where a strong N to NE wind is likely to blast in from the North Sea, and then chilly for several days. Much warmer again around 3-7 May.

Forecasts for North America

In the longer term, the persistent cold weather and snow cover in the northern plains and Canadian prairies seems destined to melt very fast in about a week to ten days from now, but it will stay rather chilly there today and then start warming up gradually, before much warmer weather arrives about the end of April. Today and tomorrow, it should remain hot and dry in most parts of the southwest and Texas, with fronts moving east across the plains states and Rockies, but a second wave is forming to hold back any colder air north of Oklahoma. The rather limited area of severe storms will head east across Missouri and the Ohio valley, and snow or sleet will follow in parts of the Midwest as the last of the cold air drains out of the regions to the northwest. Ahead of these fronts, warmer today in the eastern states, but only about average for late April.

My local weather on Monday was clear and sunny with highs near 12 C. It felt quite warm out of the breeze, but it's heading much higher today and on Wednesday (highs near 20 C expected).

M.T. Cranium · 24-04-2013 07:43AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 24 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast with a band of showers that could produce brief thundershowers, moving southward during the morning to reach the southeast by mid-day or early afternoon, followed by more variable amounts of cloud and further isolated showers. Despite all that, there could be some pleasant intervals for an hour or two, keep an eye on the radar as showers will be coming and going ...rain is only expected to reach about 1-3 mm for most places, 3-7 mm in some heavier showers ... highs about 13 to 16 C (warmest in east and inland south) although it will probably be closer to 12-13 C in the north. Winds moderate SW (30-50 km/hr) ahead of the line of showers, becoming W to NW 30-50 km/hr after it passes.

TONIGHT ... Colder than recent nights, with further outbreaks of light rain but some brief clear intervals, in moderate northwest winds. Lows 3-7 C coldest inland north.

THURSDAY ... The day will continue rather cloudy, with light rain developing in north, highs about 14 C south and 12 C north. Some heavier showers could develop by afternoon, moving further south and some of these could become thundery with hail. Turning considerably cooler in north during the afternoon and evening, as winds increase from NW 30-50 km/hr to northerly 40-70 km/hr, with temperatures falling to 4-6 C by evening with a slight risk of snow overnight on hills.

FRIDAY ... After quite a cold start, lows 2-4 C, with sleety showers in northerly winds, the day will continue mostly cloudy, becoming rather breezy (NNW 40-70 km/hr) and very cool with highs 11 to 13 C south and 8 to 10 C north. Temperatures could fall a few degrees further around heavier showers.

SATURDAY ... Some clear intervals early morning could lead to a slight ground frost with lows generally 1-3 C, then sunny intervals with a cool northerly breeze, still a risk of isolated showers mainly near coasts and over higher terrain, winds northerly 30-50 km/hr. Highs 8-10 C north, 10-12 C south. Winds becoming northwest 20-40 km/hr near Atlantic coasts and inland west during the afternoon. Saturday night will then become clear and quite cold with frosts inland and lows -3 to +2 C.

SUNDAY ... Clouds increasing rapidly from the northwest after a clear start, then generally overcast with a few breaks and also a few showers in moderate westerly winds increasing to near gale force over northwest coasts and to about 40-60 km/hr east and south. Highs 10-13 C, rainfalls about 3-5 mm across north and west.

MONDAY ... Windy and unseasonably cold with showers, some with hail and even a touch of sleet or snow over higher parts of the north. Morning lows about 2-4 C and highs about 8-10 C. Winds NW 50-80 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Gradual improvements as winds become more moderate and temperatures warm slightly to 11-13 C in more of a westerly flow, but still some showers around particularly in Connacht and Ulster.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... By the first of May, things should return to more normal temperatures of 13-15 C daytime although still a bit on the cool side especially with the overnight lows sometimes touching the slight frost range. The first seven to ten days of May could warm up considerably in a southeast flow.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Showers becoming heavy and thundery at times, highs about 17 C in the south, 14 C central, 11 C Scotland. Turning cooler mid-afternoon to evening across the southern regions, winds WSW 40-60 km/hr veering to NW 40-70 km/hr later.

TONIGHT ... Showers and blustery northwest winds, becoming rather cold with lows 2-4 C north, 4-7 C south. Some mixing with snow on hills in Scotland.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY ... Windy and turning very cold in stages, eventually becoming almost wintry in some places with NNW winds over the Irish Sea and NNE winds over the North Sea converging in central Britain, some wintry showers on higher ground quite likely as highs reach only 7 or 8 C near sea level, 2 to 5 C on hills. The south may be as mild as 10-13 C Thursday before the full extent of this cold air arrives.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Consult the forecast for Ireland from Saturday onward, the same general themes apply. Scotland could see some locally heavy snowfalls on Monday during the coldest part of the second outbreak, but on the other hand, Sunday won't be too bad a day in southern England ahead of that second cold front.

Forecasts for North America

Showers and thunderstorms moving east from the Great Lakes and Ohio valley to reach the east coast tonight, rather warm ahead of this front with highs reaching 20-25 C in New York and Washington. The rain will extend south to the Gulf and end a rather tepid warm spell in the southeast briefly before warmer air returns over the next two days. Texas has turned quite a bit cooler but northerly winds will go calm then southeast and it should be a rather warm day but with very low humidity and highs near 24 C. Further north, a weak sleet-snow producing wave is heading southeast from Minnesota followed by a brief and final (for this long spell) cold day and night ahead, then it begins to warm up very rapidly over the snow-covered regions around North Dakota, Manitoba and Saskatchewan where everyone is braced for severe flooding due to ice jams developing ahead of a large flood crest (expected in about a week to ten days). Turning sunny and very warm across the far west including most of Alberta and British Columbia.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny with a pleasant high of 14 C, and we're expecting 19-21 C next two days.

M.T. Cranium · 24-04-2013 07:36PM

UPDATE _ Wed 24 April 2013 _ 7:20 p.m.
____________________________________

This is an advisory (below alert criteria) for 10-15 mm rainfall amounts expected overnight in a zone extending from Clare in the west to Meath in the east, and all locations within about 50 km either side of a line from Lough Derg to Drogheda. In that zone, a slow-moving frontal wave will drop steady light to moderate rain amounting to 15 mm in some places. To the north, much lighter amounts are expected, and to the south, some locations will remain dry. Dublin is near the southern margin of the rainfall zone and amounts of 5 to 10 mm are anticipated, the maximum values would be in Meath and north Kildare, Laois, Offaly, north Tipps and parts of Clare, southeast Galway, and northeast Limerick. This rainfall will taper off to drizzle and fog then end at some point during the late overnight hours except near the east coast where it will end during the first hours of daylight on Thursday.

On another subject altogether, the full moon tomorrow includes a grazing partial eclipse but this will only be briefly visible at moonrise in Ireland (full moon is around 9 p.m. IST) with a slight darkening of the Moon's southern polar regions (the Moon almost misses the earth's shadow). Even with good visibility, this could be difficult to see in the twilight given the low angle of the rising moon. Next month the Moon's north polar regions get an even less significant coverage in the penumbral portion of the shadow at full moon. This is one of those rare occasions where timing of full moons prevents a total eclipse or at least a significant partial eclipse from taking place (about twice a year there can be an eclipse if the Moon arrives at the right time to traverse the earth's shadow) but the intervening new moon has a total eclipse, albeit an "annular" eclipse visible in parts of the earth's southern hemisphere, timed for the overnight period 9-10 May in universal time, visible from portions of Australia and parts of the Pacific Ocean.

The reason why eclipses only occur at two points in the earth year is basically this -- the Moon orbits the earth in the ecliptic plane (our path around the Sun extended outward) but not quite staying in that plane, inclined to it by 5 degrees. The positions where the Moon intersects our orbital plane (nodes) move backward around the ecliptic plane every 18.6 years, which produces two groups of eclipse possibilities every 11.5 months (in most years, twice a year, but it could be three times in a few cases). At other points in the year, the Moon rides either higher or lower in space than the earth's shadow. If the Moon's nodes did not move so fast, eclipses would always be at the same time of year or would drift slower through the calendar year. If the Moon were less inclined to the ecliptic, we would see more frequent eclipses. If there were no inclination, we would get an eclipse every month, both solar and lunar. (By month, I mean lunation, the calendar month can provide two full or new moon dates sometimes, and also zero in a 28-day February).

The reason for an annular eclipse is that the Moon's distance also varies, and sometimes it is too far from the earth at new moon to cover the entire disk of the Sun, so the path of totality still sees a ring of sunlight (not the corona as seen at a covered total eclipse). This distance factor is not as significant in lunar eclipses which are often total for much longer periods due to the wider shadow of the earth relative to the Moon (the earth is four times as large by diameter alone). Distance also factors into duration, because when the Moon is distant, it moves slower, when it's at perigee it moves faster. The difference is on the order of 15% above and below a mean. At perigee, the Moon can be as much as 20,000 km closer than its average distance of about 384,000 km from earth.

M.T. Cranium · 25-04-2013 07:53AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 25 April, 2013

Astronomy note: Full moon occurs tonight at 20:58h IST, about when the moon (partially eclipsed near its south polar region) is rising as seen from Ireland. By around midnight, observers should be able to spot Saturn located above the Moon's north pole, and the bright star Spica off to the right of this pair. Meanwhile, Jupiter remains visible as an evening star that could be confused with Venus although Venus is just emerging from the Sun's glare in the evening skies this month. Note this date on your calendar -- 28 May -- that evening, Venus and Jupiter will form a close pair in the evening skies just after sunset (closest around 10 p.m.)

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain ending soon across coastal Leinster, although patchy drizzle may continue in various regions with a gradual clearing trend in parts of the north, followed by renewed shower activity by afternoon, this spreading southeast to cover other regions with 30-50 per cent chance of rain at any given location this afternoon, but also some dry intervals and a bit of sunshine at times. Some of the afternoon showers could become thundery with hail. ... It will be generally cooler and fresher with highs about 14 C south and 12 C north. Turning considerably cooler in north during the afternoon and evening, as winds increase to NW 30-50 km/hr then northerly 40-70 km/hr, with temperatures falling to 4-6 C by evening.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy with some clear intervals in the east and south, but more frequent showers north and west, with a slight risk of snow overnight on higher summits in north. Lows 2-4 C. Winds NW to N 40-60 km/hr in exposed locations although falling off inland to 20-30 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... After quite a cold start with almost sleety showers in northerly winds, the day will continue mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks, more frequent near south coast, becoming rather breezy to windy at times (NNW 40-70 km/hr) and feeling very cool with highs 11 to 13 C south and 6 to 10 C north. Temperatures could fall a few degrees further around any heavier showers. Hail or snow could fall on higher terrain, and some hail or thunder is possible at lower elevations, more likely in northwest inland.

SATURDAY ... Some clear intervals early morning could lead to a slight ground frost with lows generally 1-3 C, then sunny intervals with a cool northerly breeze, still a risk of isolated showers mainly near coasts and over higher terrain, winds northerly 30-50 km/hr. Highs 8-10 C north, 10-12 C south. Winds becoming northwest 20-40 km/hr near Atlantic coasts and inland west during the afternoon. Saturday night will then become clear and quite cold with frosts inland and lows -3 to +2 C.

SUNDAY ... Clouds increasing rapidly from the northwest after a clear start, then generally overcast with a few breaks and also a few showers in moderate westerly winds increasing to near gale force over northwest coasts and to about 40-60 km/hr east and south. Highs 10-13 C, rainfalls about 3-5 mm across north and west.

MONDAY ... Windy and unseasonably cold with showers, some with hail and even a touch of sleet or snow over higher parts of the north. Morning lows about 2-4 C and highs about 8-10 C. Winds NW 50-80 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Gradual improvements as winds become more moderate and temperatures warm slightly to 11-13 C in more of a westerly flow, but still some showers around particularly in Connacht and Ulster.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... By the first of May, things should return to more normal temperatures of 13-15 C daytime although still a bit on the cool side especially with the overnight lows sometimes touching the slight frost range. The first seven to ten days of May could warm up considerably in a southeast flow.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Rain moving across central and northern England most of the day, showers further south, highs 13-15 C south, 11-13 C central, but turning sharply colder late in the day. Cold to start in Scotland with mixed wintry showers over some hills, a few sunny breaks, and freshening northwest winds, highs 6-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, wintry showers in places, lows 1-3 C, strong northerly winds near North Sea coasts. About 4-6 C in the southeast with mostly cloudy skies and a few clear intervals.

FRIDAY ... Windy and turning very cold in stages, eventually becoming almost wintry in some places with NNW winds over the Irish Sea and NNE winds over the North Sea converging in central Britain, some wintry showers on higher ground quite likely as highs reach only 7 or 8 C near sea level, 2 to 5 C on hills.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Consult the forecast for Ireland from Saturday onward, the same general themes apply. Scotland could see some locally heavy snowfalls on Monday during the coldest part of the second outbreak, but on the other hand, Sunday won't be too bad a day in southern England ahead of that second cold front.

Forecasts for North America

Large scale pattern change is underway, finally ... warmer air is streaming east across the Rockies as arctic air retreats north of populated areas in western Canada, and the melt is on, highs will be 12-16 C with hazy sunshine. This warming trend is a lot stronger further south where there is no snow to melt, highs will reach 20-25 C in the central plains and 25-30 C in Texas. The west remains warm and dry but rain is moving into southern Alaska. Meanwhile, the east is feeling the last gasp of the cold regime with a weak frontal wave bringing cold rain or mountain snow to the inland northeast states, followed by clearing and rather cool weather in the Great Lakes and Midwest (warming will arrive tomorrow there). Further south, winds are generally southeast around a strong high pressure system that has built up near the crest of the Appalachians. Temperatures are generally a bit below normal in the 17-20 C range, trending to 25-30 C in Louisiana and Arkansas.

My local weather on Wednesday was near perfect, sunny, light winds and a high of 17 C. Going out after posting this at midnight to see the full moon and any meteors that might be visible (the full moon not helping in that very much).

M.T. Cranium · 26-04-2013 07:48AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 26 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunshine in parts of the east and south will gradually fade as widespread showers advance from Connacht and Ulster to cover most regions for much of the day, and some of these could produce brief bursts of hail and a rumble of thunder. Snow may reappear on summits of higher hills. It will be unseasonably cold with brisk northwest to north winds at 40-70 km/hr and it will feel colder during showers with highs 11 to 13 C south and 6 to 10 C north likely to be set during brief sunny intervals between showers.

TONIGHT ... Showers, some wintry, will gradually die out and winds will decrease inland although they will stay fairly brisk in exposed coastal locations. Lows could fall to -1 C in some sheltered spots, and 1 to 3 C more generally. Expect a ground frost in some inland districts.

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals with a cool northerly breeze, still a risk of isolated showers mainly near coasts and over higher terrain, winds northerly 30-50 km/hr. Highs 8-10 C north, 10-12 C south. Winds becoming northwest 20-40 km/hr near Atlantic coasts and inland west during the afternoon. Cloud followed by light rain will brush the northwest coast without making much further progress south during the evening hours.

Saturday night will then become clear and quite cold with frosts inland and lows -3 to +2 C.

SUNDAY ... Clouds increasing rapidly from the northwest after a clear start, then generally overcast with a few breaks and also a few showers in moderate westerly winds increasing to near gale force over northwest coasts and to about 40-60 km/hr east and south. Highs 10-13 C, rainfalls about 3-5 mm across north and west.

MONDAY ... Windy and unseasonably cold with showers, some with hail and even a touch of sleet or snow over higher parts of the north. Morning lows about 2-4 C and highs about 8-10 C. Winds NW 50-80 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Morning frosts likely, then variable cloud, isolated showers with hail and hill snow, turning slightly warmer in parts of the south but highs well below normal, 7-10 C north and 9-12 C south.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with showers or periods of rain, moderate southwest winds, highs near 12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled and remaining a bit cooler than normal with highs in the 10-13 C range until perhaps Sunday 5th of May then a bit warmer at least for the following week.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Morning rain across the south ending with brief clearing, then further showers and becoming windy as temperatures begin to fall further in stages, eventually becoming almost wintry in some places with NNW winds over the Irish Sea and NNE winds over the North Sea converging in central Britain, some wintry showers on higher ground quite likely as highs reach only 7 or 8 C near sea level, 2 to 5 C on hills. Highs in the south could reach 10-12 but falling to 8-9 C during the afternoon.

TONIGHT and SATURDAY ... Windy (N 40-70 km/hr) and unseasonably cold with wintry showers, hail quite widespread, snow on hills, and temperatures steady in the range of 3-7 C. Some places in the south could have a bit more sunshine and reach perhaps 10 or 11 briefly. Any showers could become thundery and produce hail. Sunny intervals will become more frequent in the west during the afternoon as winds ease slightly.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Sunday could be slightly milder but another surge of very cold air will arrive late Sunday night and keep Monday and Tuesday temperatures in single digits with wintry showers possible. From Wednesday on, the pattern will be similar to Ireland, with a continued unsettled theme and a slow rise in temperatures by end of the weekend of 4-5 May.

Forecasts for North America

Little change from yesterday as milder air continues to push into snow-covered regions of the northern plains and Canadian prairies, resulting in a rapid melt. Highs would be near 21 C but the melting snow and some fog could keep temperatures around 10-15 C in places. Further south with no snow to melt, the warm air will produce highs near 27 C trending to 33 C in parts of Texas and the desert southwest. Rain will push onto the central and north coast of B.C. and cloud further south will cool temperatures slightly. The eastern half of the continent is now under slack high pressure and will be warming up very slightly each day with some patchy mid-level cloud here and there, widespread sunshine otherwise and highs generally 15-18 C in the northeast states trending to 22-25 C in the southeast. Only minor changes are expected day to day now, although a weak frontal system will develop in the central states and bring showers and a slight cooling trend by the weekend.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and warm with a high of 19 C.

M.T. Cranium · 27-04-2013 07:42AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 27 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: Earth passes the planet Saturn tonight, an alignment known as "opposition" (the exact time is 0900h Sunday, so in my time zone I'll be able to see that around 0200h) ... meanwhile, if the almost full moon looks quite large tonight, it should, today marks lunar perigee.

TODAY ... Sunny intervals with a cool northerly breeze, still a risk of isolated showers mainly near west and southeast coasts and over higher terrain in Connacht and west Ulster, winds northerly 30-50 km/hr. Highs 8-10 C north, 10-12 C south. Winds becoming northwest 20-40 km/hr near Atlantic coasts and inland west during the afternoon. Cloud followed by light rain will brush the northwest coast without making much further progress south during the evening hours.

TONIGHT ... Cloud and light rain will gradually extend further south but it may start off clear in the southeast allowing near-frost temperatures there before a slight rise after midnight. Lows 2-5 C southeast, 4-7 C northwest. Winds becoming rather light except in exposed northern locations where a brisk westerly breeze is likely at 30-50 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine and also a few showers or periods of light rain, amounts generally 3-5 mm, in moderate westerly winds increasing to near gale force (gusts to 85 km/hr) by afternoon and evening over northwest coasts and to about 40-60 km/hr east and south. Highs in the range of 10-13 C.

MONDAY ... Windy and quite cold with showers, some with hail, thunder and even a touch of sleet or snow over higher parts of the north. Morning lows about 2-4 C and highs about 8-10 C. Winds WNW 50-80 km/hr. There could be some sunny breaks near the south and east coast.

TUESDAY ... Morning frosts likely, lows -2 to +3 C, then variable cloud, isolated showers with hail and hill snow, turning slightly warmer in parts of the south but highs well below normal, 7-10 C north and 9-12 C south.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with showers or periods of rain, moderate southwest winds, highs near 11-13 C.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers, breezy to windy from west to northwest and highs 9-12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled and remaining a bit cooler than normal with highs in the 10-13 C range until perhaps Sunday 5th of May then a bit warmer at least for the following week.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Windy (N 40-70 km/hr) and unseasonably cold with risk of wintry showers, hail or snow most likely in eastern counties, and highs of 3-7 C although some places in the south and the west Midlands, south Wales could have a bit more sunshine and reach perhaps 10 or 11 briefly. Any showers could become thundery and produce hail. Sunny intervals will become more frequent in the west during the afternoon as winds ease slightly.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals especially in south and east, then increasing cloud in west to northwest winds, 30-50 km/hr, temperatures hitting lows near 2 or 3 C around midnight then rising to near 6 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Sunday could be slightly milder with showers and gusty westerly winds, highs near 13 C, but another surge of very cold air will arrive late Sunday night and keep Monday and Tuesday temperatures in single digits with wintry showers possible, except near the south coast where it might struggle up to about 10-11 C. From Wednesday on, the pattern will be similar to Ireland, with a continued unsettled theme and a slow rise in temperatures by end of the weekend of 4-5 May. For several weeks now, the models have been flirting with warmer southeast winds then pulling back from that, usually this means that eventually such a spell will in fact materialize. About mid-May would be my educated guess as to when that might really happen.

Forecasts for North America

Mild to warm air continues to stream across melting snow packs in the central parts of the continent near the U.S.-Canada border, and highs would normally be closer to 25 C than what will be recorded (15-18 C) due to the energy going into snow melt (and some ground mist). A weak disturbance has formed around Arkansas and Missouri, and will spread light rain gradually through the Ohio valley region. To the south of that it is warm and humid although near seasonable with highs 24-27 C. Further west, it is quite warm to hot in Texas and the desert southwest region. And in the northeast states and Great Lakes regions, it is going to be a largely cloudy but dry weekend with near normal temperatures near 15-17 C.

My local weather on Friday was cloudy by mid-morning with a high of 14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 28-04-2013 07:55AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 28 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy this morning, outbreaks of light rain or drizzle in southeast and isolated showers northwest, then intervals of cloud and sunshine and also a few passing showers, further amounts generally 2-3 mm, in moderate westerly winds increasing to near gale force (gusts to 85 km/hr) by afternoon and evening over northwest coasts and to about 40-60 km/hr east and south. Highs in the range of 10-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Breezy to windy and cold with passing showers, some with hail. Slight risk of snow on high terrain (near summit level). Winds WNW 30-50 km/hr and lows 2-4 C.

MONDAY ... Windy and quite cold with showers, some with hail, thunder and even a touch of sleet or snow over higher parts of the north with highs about 8-11 C mildest in south and west. Winds WNW 45-70 km/hr. There could be some sunny breaks near the south and east coast.

TUESDAY ... Morning frosts likely, lows -2 to +3 C, then variable cloud, isolated showers with hail and hill snow, turning slightly warmer in parts of the south but highs well below normal, 7-10 C north and 9-12 C south.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with showers or periods of rain, moderate southwest winds, morning lows 3-5 C and highs near 11-13 C.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers, breezy to windy from west to northwest and highs 9-12 C.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... This is now looking like a cold interval as some of that very cold air well to the north drains out behind a slow-moving low ... details are yet to be confirmed as some guidance suggests a northeast wind while other indications say northwest, but expect an unsettled spell with highs only in the 8-11 C range and slight frosts despite widespread cloud and showers, hill sleet or snow would be in the mix also.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... That colder spell should fade out around Sunday 5th with somewhat improved weather and temperatures (12-14 C) although still a bit cloudy and showery at times, then the following week looks closer to average for May, highs 13-15 C and possibly a bit higher in a southeasterly flow (18-20 C by about the 8th of May).

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Morning showers or periods of light rain, then cloudy with passing showers, some becoming rather wintry in north and on higher terrain in Wales and north-central England. Highs 10-12 C south, 7-10 C central and 5-8 C in Scotland. Winds WNW 45-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Passing showers of rain or hail, snow on hills in north, moderate northwest winds. Lows 2-4 C.

MONDAY - TUESDAY ... Windy and cold with passing showers of hail, cold rain, and even some snow away from south. Highs 8-11 C south, 6-9 C central and 4-7 C Scotland. Overnight lows close to freezing in many places, some isolated frosts.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... See Ireland forecasts from Wednesday on, same general trends.

Forecasts for North America

The thaw continues rapidly in central regions with strong westerly winds developing today, highs 14-17 C. Further south, it's closer to 25 C with hazy sunshine, trending to 30 C in the desert southwest. Texas now has widespread cloud and higher humidity, readings near 25 C. Light to moderate rain is becoming more widespread from lower Great Lakes to southeast (Gulf coast, north Florida) with some heavier falls possible in Georgia, highs 20-24 C. Ahead of this wet weather, the inland northeast and parts of Ontario-Quebec will be partly cloudy and mild with highs 15-20 C.

My local weather on Saturday was showery and the high was 15 C.

M.T. Cranium · 29-04-2013 07:37AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 29 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy and feeling quite cold during showers, some with hail, thunder -- these will be frequent in the north and west, and will appear from time to time in the east and south, also there could even be a touch of sleet or snow over higher parts of the north. Highs about 8-11 C mildest in south and near the Atlantic coasts. Winds WNW 45-70 km/hr. Despite all that, it could feel relatively pleasant in sunny intervals, but expect rapid changes if you're spending time outdoors.

TONIGHT ... Partial clearing as showers become less frequent and more confined to west and north coasts, a touch of frost possible inland, lows about -2 to +3 C.

TUESDAY ... Morning frosts likely, then variable cloud, isolated showers with hail and hill snow, turning slightly warmer in parts of the south but highs well below normal, 7-10 C north and 9-12 C south. Outbreaks of light rain are likely by afternoon in north Connacht and west Ulster. Winds backing from NW 30-50 km/hr to WSW 30-50 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with showers or periods of rain, more frequent in the morning hours across the north, with moderate southwest winds, morning lows 3-5 C and highs near 11-13 C. The day could turn more pleasant by afternoon in the south.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers, breezy to windy from west to northwest then backing to southwest again, morning lows about 4 C and highs 9-12 C.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... Rather cold with a northeast to north or northwest wind adding chill, with showers and high elevation sleet or snow, highs only in the 8-11 C range and slight frosts despite widespread cloud and showers.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... That colder spell should fade out around Sunday 5th with somewhat improved weather and temperatures (12-14 C) although still a bit cloudy and showery at times, then the following week looks closer to average for May, highs 13-15 C and possibly a bit higher in a southeasterly flow (18-20 C by about the 7th of May).

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY and TUESDAY ... Windy and cold with passing showers of hail, cold rain, and even some snow away from south. Highs 8-11 C south, 6-9 C central and 4-7 C Scotland. Overnight lows close to freezing in many places, some isolated frosts.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... See Ireland forecasts from Wednesday on, same general trends.

Forecasts for North America

Rain, heavy at times, will move through the southeast U.S. then offshore, while light rain or showers break apart further north over Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania. Temperatures will be rather warm despite this rain, highs about 20-23 C. Another weak front is breaking apart near Chicago and will bring intermittent rain before dissipating. A stronger disturbance has now captured most of the available energy over the mountain west and this will spread heavy rainfalls and thunderstorms into the plains states, with a secondary frontal wave further south over Texas bringing some severe storms towards Dallas. Hot and dry further west, but a sharp temperature gradient will develop over Nevada, Utah and near the Wyoming-Colorado border, with mountain snow to the north of that front, valley showers but chilly (5-8 C).

My local weather on Sunday was cloudy with glimpses of sun through breaks in the overcast, and evening showers that have left a trace of moisture. The high was about 14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 30-04-2013 07:33AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 30 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloud will increase steadily in the north but it may remain mostly sunny in the south. A few intervals of light rain will move into the far north and there's a slight risk of showers as far south as Galway to Dublin, but amounts will be very slight to 2-4 mm northern coasts. Winds will increase gradually to reach WSW 30-50 km/hr (50-70 km/hr north coast) and highs will reach 7-10 C north and 11-13 C south.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with showers north, partly cloudy and mainly dry south, lows about 3-5 C on average, possibly a bit cooler in the inland south.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with showers or periods of rain mainly confined to the morning hours across the north, with moderate southwest winds, highs about 11-13 C. The day could turn more pleasant by afternoon in the south, in fact, it may not rain at all near the south coast despite some cloudy intervals at first. Rainfall amounts expected, zero or a trace to 3 mm south, 5-10 mm north.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy north, partly cloudy with sunny intervals south, showers once again mostly confined to north, breezy to windy from west to northwest then backing to southwest again, morning lows about 4 C and highs 9-12 C.

FRIDAY ... Overcast with rain developing, possibly heavy at times, 10-20 mm likely, morning lows near 5 C and highs 11-14 C. Southerly winds dying out to be replaced near end of the rainfall with light northerly breezes. Quite chilly overnight into Saturday.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, cool, rain ending as scattered showers followed by partial clearing more effective for inland south and east. Morning lows 3-5 C and highs 10-14 C.

SUNDAY-MONDAY ... This holiday weekend weather is somewhat uncertain with a weak clearing trend fighting against lingering Atlantic frontal influences, and at this stage we will compromise by saying cloudy with a few sunny intervals and near normal temperatures (highs 12-15 C) and chance of a few showers more frequent near west and north coasts.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The following week looks rather warm and a bit above average in temperatures for early May, highs 15-17 C and possibly a bit higher in a southeasterly flow (18-20 C by about the 7th of May).

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Sunny intervals, increasing cloud in north and west, showers across Scotland by afternoon and evening. Highs 8-11 C north to 11-14 C south.

TONIGHT, WEDNESDAY ... Rain or showers in north, isolated showers central and partly cloudy south, lows 3-6 C and highs 11-14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Mostly cloudy with further rain on Friday lasting into Saturday morning south, then gradual clearing, near normal temperatures for time of year. Warmer in the following week.

Forecasts for North America

The thaw is now largely accomplished across the northern plains and prairies, with severe local flooding in places. Further rain may add to this today but then a cooler and dry spell will help slightly from tonight through Thursday. Further south, a slow-moving frontal system will begin to create heavy thundery rainfalls in the Midwest, and along a front running south to east Texas. This will all move very slowly east for several days. Ahead of the front it will be a little warmer than average with highs 18-23 C and some outbreaks of light rain, partly cloudy further north and east. The Rocky Mountains and Great Basin are turning much colder in a strong northerly flow that will reach the desert regions tonight, ending a warm spell there, at least west of New Mexico where it will stay very warm for an extra day, and Texas which will remain warm for two or three days in this slow-moving pattern.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and breezy with a cool high of only about 12 C.

M.T. Cranium · 01-05-2013 07:42AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 1 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with showers or periods of drizzly light rain soon becoming confined to the north, with highs about 11-13 C. The day should turn more pleasant by afternoon in the south, in fact, it may not rain more than a trace amount near the south coast despite some cloudy intervals at first. Further rainfall amounts expected, zero or a trace to 2 mm south, 3-6 mm north.

TONIGHT ... Partly to mostly cloudy, just a few isolated outbreaks of drizzle mainly near north and west coasts, some hill fog developing. Light winds and lows near 3 C in rural areas, 7 C in coastal and urban areas.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy north, partly cloudy with sunny intervals south, showers once again mostly confined to north, westerly breezes then backing to southwest again, highs 9-12 C.

FRIDAY ... Overcast with rain developing, possibly heavy at times, 8-15 mm likely, morning lows near 5 C and highs 11-14 C. According to most guidance, southerly winds dying out to be replaced near end of the rainfall with light northerly breezes, but there is some chance of this front developing gusty winds from the west around mid-day.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, cool, rain ending as scattered showers followed by partial clearing more effective for inland south and east. Morning lows 3-5 C and highs 10-14 C.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy but with some spells of hazy sunshine near east and north coasts and inland southeast, coastal fog near south coast, cloud and light showers at times near west coast. Somewhat warmer with highs near 14 or 15 C on average. Light southerly winds.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals in east, further light showers are possible in the west although some guidance suggests this moisture will be dried out by southeast breezes and swelling high pressure, highs about 15 C. Light to moderate southeast winds.

TUESDAY ... There is a chance of hazy sunshine continuing with warm temperatures in the 14-17 C range, but other guidance moves this high pressure away faster, which would leave the forecast as increasing cloud, outbreaks of rain heavier near west coast, highs near 14 C. We will get a clearer view of this forecast challenge by the end of the week.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... If the settled weather lasts through Tuesday, it could then last a few more days and slowly give way to cloud and rain towards the folllowing weekend. If the breakdown is faster, expect the following days to bring a dry spell and then the same trend of cloud and rain but slightly later towards mid-month.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Rain or showers in north, isolated showers central and partly cloudy south, and highs 11-14 C. Rainfalls of 10-20 mm in Scotland, 5-10 mm northern England, smaller or zero amounts in Wales, central England and largely dry in southern England.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Mostly cloudy with further rain on Friday lasting into Saturday morning south, then gradual clearing through the remainder of the weekend, near normal temperatures for time of year. Warmer in the following week. Chances of settled weather will be greater in southeast England than elsewhere.

Forecasts for North America

The east remains cloudy and somewhat warmer than average except where east winds come in from cooler sections of the coast, highs generally 18-23 C. Further west, a wedge of warm air bringing highs of 28-32 C is trapped between a weak front to the southeast and another to the northwest. Those are both bringing sporadic rainfalls of about 20-30 mm to parts of the southeast, Gulf coast and upper Midwest, north-central plains states. The warmer weather extends through Oklahoma and north Texas into the desert southwest, and another warm ridge is building on the west coast, spreading mild Pacific air back into the prairies after a brief interruption in recent mild temperatures. However, cold air has moved south into Manitoba bringing a one-day cold spell there, although that air mass is being squeezed from both sides and will cease to exist by tomorrow. Flooding continues due to earlier rains and snowmelt despite this brief temperature change.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and rather cool with highs near 12 C.

M.T. Cranium · 02-05-2013 08:05AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 2 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy north, partly cloudy with sunny intervals south and east -- mainly during the morning to mid-day hours, showers once again mostly confined to north and largely ending by afternoon with just some patchy drizzle in parts of northwest later, highs 9-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with rain developing across the north, foggy at times, about 5-10 mm by morning, but remaining largely dry in south and some central districts, although cloudy and misty ... lows 7-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Overcast with rain, possibly heavy at times in west Ulster, 8-15 mm likely in Connacht and Ulster but 3-7 mm further south, highs 11-14 C. Winds rather light southwest becoming west to northwest with some brief gusty conditions possible during passage of a weak trough, then slightly improved weather for the northwest before evening fades, probably some good photopgraphy opportunities especially near the Atlantic coasts on Friday evening.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, cool, early morning rain in east and northeast ending as scattered showers near sunrise, followed by partial clearing that will be more effective for inland south and east where the day could become at least partly sunny. West coast should also clear but some mist and low cloud could continue to head inland at times in moderate westerly winds. Morning lows 3-5 C and highs 10-14 C, best in southeast.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy but with some spells of hazy sunshine near east and north coasts and inland southeast, coastal fog near south coast, cloud and light showers at times near west coast. Somewhat warmer with highs near 14 or 15 C on average. Light southerly winds.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals in east, further light showers are possible in the west and at this point I would not exclude the possibility of rain spreading in during the late afternoon or evening from the southwest, but for most places it should be a dry day with at least some sunshine ... reasonably warm too, with highs about 15 C. Light to moderate southeast winds.

TUESDAY ... The consensus now seems to favour forecast (b) that we discussed yesterday, namely increasing cloud, outbreaks of rain heavier near west coast, highs near 14 C. We will get a clearer view of this forecast challenge by the end of the week. The rainfall could be in the 15-25 mm range but timing is somewhat fluid, could be more of a Tuesday night into Wednesday morning event for east especially northeast.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Here again, we are presented with two scenarios, one being a brief improvement mid-week followed by more showery weather although reasonably mild throughout (14-17 C), the other being a more pronounced warming trend with stronger high pressure although perhaps taking a day or two to take effect ... either way, the conditions through mid-month could be warmer than average but the question is whether that will be a slight or a considerable warming trend, then, longer term guidance indicates that whatever warmth develops will be replaced later in May by cold northeast winds again (due to retrogression or westward motion of the high pressure). Confidence on this is, naturally, rather low but that's the outlook we have at present.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Showers across most of the northern and central regions, highs about 12-14 C, moderate westerly winds at times, partly cloudy further south with highs 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, drizzle or mist, lows 7-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Periods of rain or showers becoming heavier north and central regions, arriving much later in south, highs 10-13 C north, 14-17 C south.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Mostly cloudy with further rain lasting into Saturday morning south, then gradual clearing through the remainder of the weekend, near normal temperatures for time of year. Warmer in the following week. Chances of settled weather will be greater in southeast England than elsewhere. Rainfall could be near or above normal in Scotland as weak systems continue to move in from the Atlantic.

Forecasts for North America

Heavy rainfalls will develop from the Gulf of Mexico north across Arkansas and Missouri towards Iowa, western Illinois and Wisconsin. Temperatures will remain near 27 C east of this rainfall, 12-15 C in the rain (north, 20-23 C south) and 5-10 C west where stagnant arctic air is modifying before clearing takes place from the west. This Pacific flow is milder again with highs 17-20 C.

The southwest U.S. and Pacific states almost to the Canadian border will be
sunny and mild to warm, with cloud across B.C. and Alberta although dry near the border, then rain spreading inland further north, rather warm (20-24 C).

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with high cloud at times, and highs about 16 C.

M.T. Cranium · 03-05-2013 07:54AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 3 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Despite a few sunny breaks in the southeast this morning, most regions will be overcast with rain spreading east, possibly heavy at times in west Ulster, 8-15 mm likely in Connacht and Ulster but 3-7 mm further south, highs 11-14 C. The rain will only be light and sporadic in the south until fairly late in the day, with the winds rather light southwest becoming west to northwest with some brief gusty conditions (35-55 km/hr) possible during passage of a weak trough, and then slightly improved weather for the northwest before evening fades, with some good photopgraphy opportunities developing near the Atlantic coasts on Friday evening.

TONIGHT ... Rain will become showery and rather light in parts of the east, while central counties will have increasingly misty then foggy conditions, as the wet weather slowly clears to the east. Lows generally 4-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, cool, early morning rain in east and northeast ending as scattered showers near sunrise, and in the southeast well before mid-day, all followed by partial clearing that will be more effective for inland south and east where the day could become at least partly sunny. West coast should also clear but some mist and low cloud could continue to head inland at times in moderate westerly winds. There's some chance that rain will continue to skirt the far northern coasts at times in moderate westerly winds, but most places will become dry for the mid-day and afternoon hours with highs between 11 and 15 C, best in southeast.

SUNDAY ... Becoming misty overnight then foggy in some areas early morning, lows 3-7 C, after which the day should be mostly cloudy but with some spells of hazy sunshine near east and north coasts and inland southeast, coastal fog near south coast, cloud and light showers at times near west coast. Somewhat warmer with highs near 14 or 15 C on average. Light southerly winds.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals in east, further light showers are possible in the west during the afternoon or evening but for most places it should be a dry day with at least some sunshine ... reasonably warm too, with highs about 15 C. Light to moderate southeast winds.

TUESDAY ... Some hazy sunshine possible in east at first, but for most regions, increasing cloud, with outbreaks of rain eventually becoming heavier near west coast, highs near 14 C (potential for 16-18 C inland southeast). The rainfall could be in the 15-25 mm range but timing is somewhat fluid, as it could be more of a Tuesday night into Wednesday morning event for east especially northeast.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain clearing away from west, gusty west to northwest winds developing with partly cloudy skies but further showers possible ... rain continuining much of the day in eastern counties with the clearance by evening. Highs near 14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Thursday will then see variable amounts of cloud in a brisk westerly flow, some showers across the north, and the prospects beyond that look somewhat unsettled and breezy with near normal temperatures. The earlier concept of a swelling high and warmer temperatures is being shelved by the models (possibly the signal is weaker and hitting around Tuesday in advance of the rainy frontal systems). However, the spread of solutions on different models is quite large and we don't have much confidence in the projections beyond mid-week, so a better outlook may return at some point.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Periods of rain or showers becoming heavier north and central regions, arriving much later in south, highs 10-13 C north, 14-17 C south.

TONIGHT ... Rain ending gradually in north and west, persisting in some parts of the east, quite windy at times in Scotland ... becoming foggy or misty after rain ends in west, lows 7-10 C.

SATURDAY ... Some further morning showers in east, otherwise intervals of cloud and sun, trending to mostly cloudy further north with isolated showers developing in western Scotland. Highs 13-16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Gradual clearing through the remainder of the weekend, except for parts of Scotland, with near normal temperatures for time of year. Warmer during the following week. Chances of settled weather will be greater in southeast England than elsewhere. Rainfall could be near or above normal in Scotland as weak systems continue to move in from the Atlantic.

Forecasts for North America

Heavy rainfalls along a stalled front that runs from near Chicago to New Orleans, some amounts 100-150 mm although mainly in the 25-50 mm range, temperatures close to 15 C north and 20 C south in this rainfall zone. Further east it remains very warm and this won't change very quickly as the front will tend to pivot with the warmer air actually moving back west again during part of the weekend. To the west of the front, no really cold air is present now and once clear of the rain, sunshine and 15-20 C temperatures quickly develop, trending to 27-32 C south central and 32-36 C southwest U.S. ... Cloud and light rain has moved inland towards Alberta ahead of a developing warm ridge on the west coast. The skies will clear during the morning hours where cloudy now, with the rain confined to showers along fronts in parts of western Canada. Becoming very warm to hot inland west.

My local weather on Thursday was mostly cloudy with the sun dimly visible through dense altostratus, and a few raindrops as we were on the edge of a more organized rainfall area to our north. Highs near 14 C, expecting 20 C today and 25 C on the weekend.

M.T. Cranium · 04-05-2013 06:54AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 4 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Variable cloud, any lingering drizzle ending, followed by partial clearing that will be more effective for inland south and east where the day could become at least partly sunny. West coast should also clear but some mist and low cloud could continue to head inland at times in moderate westerly winds. There's some chance that rain will continue to skirt the far northern coasts at times in moderate westerly winds, but most places will become dry for the mid-day and afternoon hours with highs between 11 and 15 C, best in southeast.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some mist and fog developing, light rain possible near Atlantic and northern coasts, lows 5-8 C.

SUNDAY ... Becoming misty overnight then foggy in some areas early morning, about 10 C by 0900h, after which the day should be mostly cloudy but with some spells of hazy sunshine near east and north coasts and inland southeast, coastal fog near south coast, cloud and light showers at times near west coast. Somewhat warmer with highs near 14 or 15 C on average. Light southerly winds.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals in east, further light showers are possible in the west during the afternoon or evening but for most places it should be a dry day with at least some sunshine ... reasonably warm too, with highs about 15 C. Light to moderate southeast winds.

TUESDAY ... Some hazy sunshine possible in east at first, but for most regions, increasing cloud, with outbreaks of rain eventually becoming heavier near southwest coastal regions, highs near 14 C (potential for 16-18 C inland southeast). The rainfall could be in the 15-25 mm range but timing is somewhat fluid, as it could be more of a Tuesday night into Wednesday morning event for east especially northeast.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain clearing away from west, gusty west to northwest winds developing with partly cloudy skies but further showers possible ... rain continuining much of the day in eastern counties with the clearance by evening. Highs near 14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Thursday will then see variable amounts of cloud in a brisk westerly flow, some rather heavy showers across the north, and the prospects beyond that look somewhat unsettled and breezy with near normal temperatures. The earlier concept of a warmer and settled period around the end of the week has returned to some extent to current guidance so keep your fingers crossed and the bar-be-que at the ready, although this weekend may be pleasant enough to fire it up anyway, especially in the southeast.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Showers or periods of rain in south, also across parts of Scotland, then less showery in south later, rain ending in parts of western Scotland, and one or two showers developing in otherwise dry sections between these main areas of wet weather, also a bit of sunshine in the mix, highs 13-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, showers dying out, lows 6-9 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY should be rather warm days in the south with some sunshine at times, trending to cloudy and near normal further north, highs about 20 C inland south, 14-17 C central, 12-15 C Scotland.

TUESDAY onwards, the same general pattern as for Ireland although rain will tend to hold off until Tuesday night and Wednesday for most of Britain except western Scotland.

Forecasts for North America

Western regions hot and dry with isolated thunderstorms inland Pacific states mostly on the east slopes of the Cascades, highs 32-36 C inland. Smoke from bush fires in parts of south/central California. This very warm weather will raise temperatures to 23-26 C even as far north as central B.C. ... rain continuing in central U.S. but tending to become heavier in the southeast in Alabama and Georgia where temperatures well below normal (12-16 C). Warm and dry if rather cloudy to the northeast of this rainfall area as systems have basically slowed to a crawl, and as mentioned yesterday, some of the warmer air is actually moving west to warm up states like Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa although the reduction in cloud is the main factor there.

My local weather on Friday was ideal with sunny skies and a high of 21 C.

M.T. Cranium · 05-05-2013 08:00AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 5 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT for heavy rainfalls in most regions on Tuesday, 15-30 mm expected, followed by locally strong winds south coast Wednesday night and frequent showers mid-week in most regions.

TODAY ... A rather damp morning unfolding for Connacht and north Leinster, parts of Ulster, although rainfall amounts generally only 1-3 mm, misty with patchy drizzle elsewhere, with an improving trend by mid-day. Rather warm and humid as some of the cloud will break up, away from onshore flows in light southerly winds (southwest in Connacht and west Ulster) and highs will average 14 or 15 C but could reach 17-18 C locally in the inland southeast and south central counties.

TONIGHT ... Mild and humid with hazy to misty skies, increasing higher cloud across west and north, possibly a few light showers there towards morning, and lows 7-10 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals in east, further light showers are possible in the west during the afternoon or evening but for most places it should be a dry day with at least some sunshine ... reasonably warm too, with highs about 15 C on average and 17-18 C inland south to east. Light to moderate southeast winds becoming rather fresh by evening along south coast. A watery sky in the afternoon will be the first sign of advancing rainfall expected Tuesday.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy from early morning with lows 9-12 C, then outbreaks of rain from about sunrise (if not earlier in west) with 15-30 mm expected by end of day, rain becoming heavier across south and west during the morning, and across north and east by afternoon, highs near 14 C. Winds moderate southeast at 30-50 km/hr, veering southerly late in the day in Munster. Rather foggy especially over hills due to low cloud ceilings.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain clearing away from west briefly with gusty west to northwest winds developing, 50-80 km/hr near south coast, with partly to mostly cloudy skies and further showers and isolated thunderstorms possible ... rain continuining for the morning in eastern and northern counties with the windshift and onset of more showery conditions by evening, however, gusts will not be as strong further north. Highs near 14 C.

THURSDAY ... Overnight gusty winds and showers, then variable cloud, breezy to windy from west to northwest, and rather cool, highs near 12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The period from Friday 10th to Monday 13th looks fairly settled with growing influence of Atlantic high pressure especially for the southern half of the country, so expect a dry spell there, decreased frequency of showers in the north, and at least moderate amounts of sunshine each day, with the usual regional differences in a mild westerly flow (coastal low cloud and fog northwest, sunshine inland southeast, etc). Highs in this period should be well into the mid-teens and possibly near 19 C in parts of the south.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY and MONDAY should be rather warm days in the south with some sunshine at times, trending to cloudy and near normal further north, with occasional showers in western Scotland, isolated showers further south mainly on upslopes in western regions. Highs about 20 C inland south, 14-17 C central, 12-15 C Scotland.

TUESDAY onwards, the same general pattern as for Ireland although rain will tend to hold off until Tuesday afternoon for most of Britain except western Scotland. Strong winds mid-week across the south, from a WSW direction, and risk of severe storms developing west of London.

Forecasts for North America

The west remains very warm and dry under sprawling upper and surface high pressure, and winds from the southeast are keeping the marine influence on the unpopulated outer coasts or over the coastal Pacific, so the west coast cities are into the 25-28 C range, while inland it is closer to 32 C. A few isolated storms are likely to develop over parts of the Great Basin states. Cool and dry in a large section of the central states as rain (heavy in some parts) is now mainly confined to the southeast, where it may affect play today at the PGA tour event in Charlotte NC. This rain is under a drifting cutoff low and temperatures are far below normal, near 12-14 C in the heavier rain and 17 C typical in the easterly flow ahead of the rainfall zone, across the mid-Atlantic states and Ohio valley. Clear to partly cloudy skies and somewhat below normal temperatures with light northeast winds have replaced warm weather in parts of the northeast and Great Lakes, while the Midwest is somewhat closer to normal with chilling lake breezes on west shores of Lake Michigan.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny with highs near 23 C, trending to about 30 C a few miles further inland.

M.T. Cranium · 06-05-2013 07:36AM

UPDATE _ Monday, 6 May, 2013 _ 0740h
_____________________________________

As it's a holiday and there are no major changes in the outlook, I will just mention a few points as updates to existing forecast:

TODAY will see somewhat cloudy conditions overall but there may be partial clearing around mid-day in the inland south and east, and this will help boost temperatures to about 17 C locally.

TOMORROW is still expected to become wet from west to east, but timing seems to have slipped back a bit to the mid-day or afternoon hours for onset, and overnight into Wednesday morning for the heavier rainfall.

Strong winds are still expected in parts of the south later Wednesday.

I will get back to a more complete forecast package again on Tuesday morning, meanwhile, the weather here Sunday was sunny and hot with the high close to 30 degrees. We're expecting similar temperatures today.

M.T. Cranium · 07-05-2013 07:10AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 7 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for heavy rainfalls in most regions tonight into Wednesday morning, 15-30 mm expected, followed by locally strong winds across the south Wednesday afternoon through the overnight hours and much of Thursday, with frequent blustery showers in most regions. It could become quite stormy in a few locations in west and south Kerry, south Cork and coastal Waterford overnight Wednesday into Thursday but these conditions may not be too widespread beyond that region.

TODAY ... Cloudy and misty with a few brighter intervals mid-day inland southeast, drizzle or light rain may develop in a few places ahead of a more organized rainfall expected to reach west Munster late afternoon. Rather warm and humid, highs 14-17 C. Moderate southeast winds developing by afternoon, 30-50 km/hr with stronger gusts around Waterford, Wexford.

TONIGHT ... Windy at times with intervals of rain, foggy over hills, southeast winds 40-60 km/hr with some higher gusts Dublin to Waterford. Lows 8-10 C. Rainfalls of 10-20 mm in most locations by morning.

WEDNESDAY ... Gusty showers or thunderstorms possible inland south and east from early morning to mid-day, outbreaks of heavy rain across north, in a fading southeasterly wind of 30-50 km/hr ... brief clearing in south followed by strong westerly winds 60-100 km/hr sweeping across west Munster and intensifying during the evening. Highs 14-16 C with readings near 12 C in far north and in the stronger westerly winds arriving later. Further rainfalls of about 10 mm on average but 20 mm north.

OVERNIGHT into THURSDAY ... Windy across the south with squally showers, winds westerly at about 50-90 km/hr with some higher gusts around Cork and Waterford. Squally showers persisting most of the day with brief brighter intervals. Further north, not as windy but frequent showers and some risk of thunder. Rainfalls of 10-15 mm, highs 12-14 C. Towards late afternoon or evening as the low moves towards Britain, less windy northern regions will see an increase to 40-70 km/hr in westerly winds, but the south will see a decrease to these same values.

FRIDAY ... Frequent showers in blustery west to northwest winds, rather cool, morning lows 6-8 C and highs 12-14 C. Partly to mostly cloudy skies may clear at times inland southeast. Winds 40-60 km/hr with higher gusts near west coast and across the north.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... The overview would be changeable and somewhat unsettled, but with this vigorous low developing, four to five day outlooks are quite uncertain anyway, so perhaps we'll have some relatively good news about the weekend closer to the time.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with outbreaks of drizzle or light rain, some brighter intervals inland south, east, and rather warm, humid ... highs 17-21 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain spreading across southwest, fog or mist elsewhere, mild and becoming rather windy (SE 40-70 km/hr) with lows 11-13 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Strong winds and heavy rain in southwest, moderate winds and heavy rain central, north. 20-40 mm rainfalls. Highs 13-15 C and wind gusts to 110 km/hr in exposed southwest, 70-90 km/hr elsewhere.

OUTLOOK ... Several more unsettled days to follow with strong westerly winds, frequent showers, highs 13-15 C.

Forecasts for North America

Heavy rain, gusty east winds and cool temperatures (13-16 C) spreading north up the east coast will reach NYC late in day, heavy falls expected in Virginia, Maryland, southern PA, eastern WV. Sunny and rather warm ahead of this rainfall area, highs 22-25 C. Meanwhile the entire central and western two-thirds of the U.S. is generally in a warm to hot, dry pattern with isolated storms in parts of west Texas, eastern NM, southeast Colorado, and across the Great Basin. This very warm air also covers most of B.C., eastern prairies of Canada, with a cooler push from the north heading across Alberta into western SK and northern Montana. The cold front is largely dry but could develop one or two gusty thunderstorms later.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and very warm, high near 27 C locally and 32 C further inland.

M.T. Cranium · 08-05-2013 06:59AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 8 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for heavy rainfalls in some northern and central regions today, a further 10-20 mm expected, followed by locally strong winds across the south by late afternoon through the overnight hours and much of Thursday, with frequent blustery showers in most regions. It could become quite stormy in a few locations in west and south Kerry, south Cork and coastal Waterford overnight into Thursday but these very windy conditions may not be too widespread beyond that region. This will be somewhat of a "nowcasting" situation as the low centre is predicted to loop around west of Connacht and drift back southeast, which could result in strong winds for brief intervals in Clare and even Galway then across some parts of the midlands and south Leinster. Winds may also tend to drop off very rapidly when the gradient shifts back south of these areas. More sustained strong winds are likely on the south coast and in most of Kerry.

TODAY ... Outbreaks of heavy rain across north (10-20 mm further), in a fading southeasterly wind of 30-50 km/hr ... brief or even several hours of clearing in south followed by strong westerly winds 60-100 km/hr sweeping across west Munster by 2-4 p.m., and intensifying during the evening. Highs 14-16 C with readings near 12 C in far north and in the stronger westerly winds arriving later. Further rainfalls of about 10 mm on average but 20 mm north. A second interval of heavy rain will develop in Connacht by late afternoon.

TONIGHT and THURSDAY ... Differences will be more regional than related to time of day ... Windy across the south with squally showers, winds westerly at about 60-100 km/hr with some higher gusts around Cork and Waterford. Squally showers persisting most of the day with brief brighter intervals. Further north, not as windy but frequent showers and some risk of thunder. If Dublin sees any strong wind gusts, they would be southerly during the afternoon as the low approaches, but areas further north will remain in a much lighter variable cyclonic wind field. Rainfalls of 10-15 mm on average but 20-30 mm possible locally north-central, some risk of thunder and a tornado watch for inland southeast (small, limited damage potential, also funnel cloud potential) ... highs 12-14 C. Towards late afternoon or evening as the low moves towards Britain, less windy northern regions will see an increase to 40-70 km/hr in westerly winds, but the south will see a decrease to these same values. Some spot flooding may develop in any prolonged showers, most likely inland west.

FRIDAY ... Frequent showers in blustery west to northwest winds, backing to southwest later and increasing, rather cool, morning lows 6-8 C and highs 12-14 C. Partly to mostly cloudy skies may clear at times inland southeast. Winds 40-60 km/hr with higher gusts near west coast and across the north, increasing to 50-80 km/hr later in the day. Rainfalls 10-15 mm.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, frequent showers, some with hail and thunder, breezy or windy (WSW-WNW 40-70 km/hr), cool ... lows 4-6 C and highs about 12-14 C. Rainfalls 10-20 mm.

SUNDAY ... Some breaks in the overcast and slightly less windy for part of the day, but also further showers likely, lows 4-6 C and highs 14-16 C. Rainfalls about 5 mm.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Monday may see slight improvements but by Tuesday into mid-week, a chilly and unsettled pattern will develop as low pressure drifts southeast from west of Iceland, turning the winds from southwest to north or northeast as it drifts by. Temperatures by mid-week could be several degrees below seasonal averages, or about 11-13 C daytime, 4-6 C overnight.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Strong winds and heavy rain in southwest, moderate winds and heavy rain central, north. 20-40 mm rainfalls. Highs 13-15 C and wind gusts to 110 km/hr in exposed southwest, 70-90 km/hr elsewhere.

TONIGHT ... Continued windy and showery, lows 7-9 C.

THURSDAY ... Outbreaks of heavy rain, thunderstorms in southern England, strong gusty winds except in some parts of northwest England and Wales closer to the approaching low. Winds in southern England about 70-100 km/hr from southwest. Some flooding possible in north-central England.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY ... Unsettled, frequent showers, cool. Highs 13-15 C. Brisk westerly winds much of the time.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... See Ireland forecast, same trends beyond weekend.

Forecasts for North America

Rain moving further north in eastern states, covering most of inland northeast and New England. Cloudy further north in the Great Lakes and Midwest. Gradual improvements in southeast, and clear, rather warm in central states, except for a few storms on a weak cold front. Sunny and very warm in the far west, partly cloudy in the Canadian prairies with near normal temperatures as a weak arctic high modifies.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny with highs near 24 C, a bit cooler than previous days due to a slight sea breeze.

M.T. Cranium · 08-05-2013 06:05PM

UPDATE _ Wed 8 May 2013 _ 6 p.m.
______________________________

The strongest winds are now developing around the southern flank of the offshore low and these will hit the west coast from Galway Bay south this evening, peaking around midnight to 0400h through the south coastal regions.

Expect local gusts to 120 km/hr in exposed parts of west Munster and about 105 km/hr around Waterford and Wexford with potential for minor damage and also high tidal levels in some parts of Kerry and south coast exposed to the west or southwest.

From about Newport north, the winds may briefly gust to 70-80 km/hr but will then fall off gradually to near calm as the low tracks towards the coast around Connemara. Regions to the north of this track will only see winds increasing later tomorrow when the system is over Britain.

The effects on Galway and Clare will probably be as follows, a gradual increase in wind speeds from SW to about 10 p.m. with peak gusts about 80 km/hr north Clare, 100 km/hr south Clare, then a gradual decrease after that to near 50 km/hr, as the impact of the strongest winds shifts further south.

Along the south coast the winds will peak around or after midnight and start to ease gradually after about 0400h.

Some very squally showers are likely in parts of the inland south during this strong wind event. Remnants of these will reach the east coast and could be moderately blustery there, but the strongest hail and thunder potential has now passed in general for today, with a secondary peak likely tomorrow afternoon.

M.T. Cranium · 09-05-2013 07:27AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Astronomy note: New moon occurs overnight at 0130h IST Friday. At that time, observers in some parts of Australia and across the South Pacific will see an annular total eclipse.

Thursday, 9 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for continuing heavy rainfalls across most regions except far north and some portions of southeast, further amounts 15-25 mm, spot flooding possible ... strong winds should soon abate across the south but it will remain moderately windy all day.

TODAY ... Windy across the south with squally showers, winds westerly at about 60-100 km/hr for part of the morning, decreasing to 50-80 km/hr by mid-day. Squally showers persisting most of the morning with brief brighter intervals. Further north, not as windy but frequent showers and some risk of thunder. The more prolonged periods of rain should end with partial clearing which will then be quickly followed by scattered and isolated severe showers or storms. Rainfalls of 10-15 mm on average but 20-30 mm possible locally north-central, some risk of thunder and a tornado watch for inland southeast (small, limited damage potential, mainly funnel cloud potential with isolated F0 or rope tornado possible) ... highs 12-14 C.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, breezy or windy at times, occasional showers. Winds westerly 35-60 km/hr. Lows 4-7 C.

FRIDAY ... Frequent showers in blustery west to northwest winds, backing to southwest later and increasing, rather cool, with highs 12-14 C. Partly to mostly cloudy skies may clear at times inland southeast. Winds 40-60 km/hr with higher gusts near west coast and across the north, increasing to 50-80 km/hr later in the day. Rainfalls 10-15 mm.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, frequent showers, some with hail and thunder, breezy or windy (WSW-WNW 40-70 km/hr), cool ... lows 4-6 C and highs about 12-14 C. Rainfalls 5-15 mm.

SUNDAY ... Some breaks in the overcast and slightly less windy for the early part of the day (in the east), but then further showers or periods of rain likely, as winds increase once again from the southwest at 50-80 km/hr. Lows 4-6 C and highs 14-16 C. Rainfalls about 8-15 mm.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with showers or periods of rain, risk of thunder and hail, rather chilly for mid-May, southwest winds becoming strong and gusty (70-110 km/hr in west) late in the day, lows 4-7 C and highs 10-13 C north, 13-15 C south. Rainfalls about 10-15 mm.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Cool and mainly overcast with frequent showers or periods of rain, winds becoming northeast or cyclonic and variable. Highs about 11-13 C and possibly 9-10 C in some northern locations. Frost is unlikely due to the cloud cover but any breaks would promote isolated frost.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Outbreaks of heavy rain, thunderstorms developing in southern England, strong gusty winds except in some parts of northwest England and Wales closer to the approaching low. Winds in southern England about 70-100 km/hr from southwest. Some flooding possible in north-central England as 20 to 40 mm rain could fall by tonight.

TONIGHT ... Windy, periods of rain or showers, lows 7-9 C. Winds becoming westerly 50-80 km/hr in most regions, some higher gusts near east coast.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY ... Unsettled, frequent showers, cool. Highs 13-15 C. Brisk westerly winds much of the time.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... See Ireland forecast, same trends beyond weekend.

Forecasts for North America

Widespread severe storms in Texas and Oklahoma, eastern New Mexico today as a front has activated overnight, highs 27-32 C and 100-200 mm rainfalls possible between Dallas and Houston leading to flash flooding. Isolated severe storms in west Texas and southern New Mexico, hot and dry over the southwest and parts of the inland northwest U.S., British Columbia, while the coast is more temperate under marine layers with sunshine or localized low cloud. The prairies and northern plains remain closer to normal under high pressure, with isolated storms developing in north-central Alberta and B.C.

The inland northeast continues to see showers and thunderstorms from a decaying upper level disturbance that has been drifting around in a large loop for over a week now, and is just about done, but rainfalls vary from small amounts to local downpours of 25 mm.

My local weather on Wednesday started cloudy and turned sunny at mid-day with a high near 21 C.

M.T. Cranium · 10-05-2013 07:05AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 10 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Morning light rain ending soon in east, then intervals of cloud and sun, followed by more Frequent showers in blustery west to northwest winds, backing to southwest later and increasing, rather cool, with highs 12-14 C. Partly to mostly cloudy skies may clear at times inland southeast. Winds 40-60 km/hr with higher gusts near west coast and across the north, increasing to 50-80 km/hr later in the day. Rainfalls 5-10 mm.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with rain developing about midnight, clearing east before morning, 4-8 mm likely, and lows 5-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, frequent showers, some with hail and thunder, breezy or windy (WSW-WNW 40-70 km/hr), cool ... highs about 12-14 C. Rainfalls 5-15 mm.

SUNDAY ... Some breaks in the overcast and slightly less windy for the early part of the day (in the east), but then further showers or periods of rain likely, as winds increase once again from the southwest at 50-80 km/hr. Lows 4-6 C and highs 14-16 C. Rainfalls about 8-15 mm.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with showers or periods of rain, risk of thunder and hail, rather chilly for mid-May, southwest winds becoming strong and gusty (70-110 km/hr in west) late in the day, lows 4-7 C and highs 10-13 C north, 13-15 C south. Rainfalls about 10-15 mm. Very windy for part of Monday night with blustery showers.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Cool and mainly overcast with frequent showers or periods of rain, winds becoming northeast or cyclonic and variable. Highs about 11-13 C and possibly 9-10 C in some northern locations. Frost is unlikely due to the cloud cover but any breaks would promote isolated frost.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Continued rather cool and unsettled with any longer dry intervals probably at least two or three weeks off, temperatures remaining a degree or two below average for mid to late May.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals in the south, frequent showers, longer periods of rain in north-central England and Wales, quite cool with highs 13-15 C. Brisk westerly winds.

WEEKEND ... Mostly cloudy, breezy to windy, frequent showers, highs around 13-15 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... See Ireland forecast, same trends beyond weekend.

Forecasts for North America

Eastern regions partly to mostly cloudy with a few scattered showers or thunderstorms, near normal temperatures. Further outbreaks of severe storms in Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana, warm and humid trending to hot and dry further west. A few showers or isolated storms in northern Rockies and high plains, along slow-moving frontal boundary. Sunny and warm further west.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny, hazy and rather warm again with a high of about 22 C.

M.T. Cranium · 11-05-2013 07:48AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 11 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Variable amounts of cloud, frequent showers, some with hail and thunder, breezy or windy (WSW-WNW 40-70 km/hr), cool ... highs about 11-13 C and possibly 9-10 C in a few northern locations. Very cold on higher terrain (expect 3-6 C at summit levels) ... further rainfalls 5-10 mm.

TONIGHT ... There may be a brief dry interval and partial clearing of the overcast, then bands of showers likely to return at least to western and northern counties before morning. Lows 4-6 C. Rainfalls 2-5 mm. Winds westerly at about 40-60 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Except for a brief dry interval in the south and east during the morning, most of the day will be blustery and unsettled, with showers becoming frequent in Connacht and more occasional elsewhere, rainfalls of about 5-10 mm on average. Winds increasing once again from the southwest at 50-80 km/hr by late afternoon. Highs 13-15 C south, 11-13 C north.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with showers or periods of rain, risk of thunder and hail, rather chilly for mid-May, southwest winds becoming strong and gusty (70-110 km/hr in west) late in the day, lows 4-7 C and highs 10-13 C north, 13-15 C south. Rainfalls about 10-15 mm. Very windy for part of Monday night with blustery showers.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Cool and mainly overcast with frequent showers or periods of rain, winds becoming northeast or cyclonic and variable. Highs about 11-13 C and possibly 9-10 C in some northern locations. Frost is unlikely due to the cloud cover but any breaks would promote isolated frost.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Continued rather cool and unsettled with any longer dry intervals probably at least two or three weeks off, temperatures remaining a degree or two below average for mid to late May. Winds becoming more northeasterly in general, but little sign of any large-scale clearing as low pressure will remain over central Europe disrupting any linkage between the Azores high and another strong high in northwest Russia. However, this pattern could improve gradually, with some slightly improved weather possible (not locked in) late next week, and perhaps we're getting the nasty weather out of the way in time for a better summer scenario.

Forecasts for Britain

THIS WEEKEND ... Mostly cloudy both days, breezy to windy, frequent showers, highs around 13-15 C and tonight's lows about 6-8 C. Rainfalls generally moderate, 10-20 mm amounts expected. Some sunny intervals, blustery west to northwest winds especially in western coastal regions.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... See Ireland forecast, same trends beyond weekend, although the cyclonic wind pattern will not arrive in southeast England until late Wednesday, until then, moderate SW breezes.

Forecasts for North America

Turning cooler this weekend in the east, highs 17-21 C, with frequent showers or periods of rain, and unseasonably cold in parts of the central and northern Great Lakes, upper Midwest (highs only 6-10 C there). Heavy storms near the central Gulf coast and eastern Texas, heading slowly towards Georgia and South Carolina later in the weekend. The PGA golf event in northeast Florida could see some action from this at some point but it may stay cloudy and dry instead. Very warm and dry across most of the western U.S. extending into eastern B.C. and most of Alberta, but the west coast is now clouding over after more than a week of clear skies, with rain expected by tonight or Sunday morning.

My local weather on Friday was sunny with a high near 23 C.

M.T. Cranium · 12-05-2013 07:04AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 12 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Any dry intervals in the south and east during the morning will be short-lived, as most of the day will be blustery and unsettled, with showers already moving through central and western counties become frequent in Connacht and more occasional elsewhere, rainfalls of about 5-10 mm on average. Winds increasing once again from the southwest at 40-70 km/hr by late afternoon. Highs 13-15 C south, 11-13 C north.

TONIGHT ... Showers, blustery winds from southwest to west at 30-60 km/hr, chilly with lows 4-6 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with showers or periods of rain, risk of thunder and hail, rather chilly for mid-May, southwest winds becoming strong and gusty (70-110 km/hr in west) late in the day, lows 4-7 C and highs 10-13 C north, 13-15 C south. Rainfalls about 10-15 mm. Very windy for Monday night with blustery showers.

TUESDAY ... Continuing windy to mid-day or afternoon (longer in south) with frequent showers or periods of rain, chilly, lows 4-6 C and highs 10-12 C. Winds becoming northwest 40-60 km/hr then decreasing to light northerly.

WEDNESDAY ... Cool and mainly overcast with frequent showers or periods of rain, winds becoming northeast or cyclonic and variable. Highs about 11-13 C and possibly 9-10 C in some northern locations. Frost is unlikely due to the cloud cover but any breaks would promote isolated frost.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Continued rather cool and unsettled with any longer dry intervals probably at least two or three weeks off, temperatures remaining a degree or two below average for mid to late May. Winds becoming more northeasterly in general, but little sign of any large-scale clearing as low pressure will remain over central Europe disrupting any linkage between the Azores high and another strong high in northwest Russia. However, this pattern could improve gradually, with some slightly improved weather possible (not locked in) late next week, and perhaps we're getting the nasty weather out of the way in time for a better summer scenario. (added on Sunday ... the models do hold out some faint hope for improving conditions towards the end of the month.)

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, breezy to windy, frequent showers, highs around 13-15 C. Rainfalls generally moderate, 5-10 mm amounts expected. Some sunny intervals, blustery west to northwest winds especially in western coastal regions.

TONIGHT ... Showers, windy, lows 4-7 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... See Ireland forecast, same trends beyond weekend, although the cyclonic wind pattern will not arrive in southeast England until late Wednesday, until then, moderate SW breezes.

Forecasts for North America

Little change from yesterday in most cases, the fronts are continuing slow progress east and temperatures in the eastern states are falling off to the 12 to 15 C range, Further showers or thunderstorms in the southeast could delay at least the start of the final round (and what's left over from today) at the PGA Championship. Warm to hot and dry in most of the central and western states, but rain has moved inland now on the west coast and will make some progress east today, reaching western Idaho and Montana and covering most of British Columbia through the rest of today. Ahead of that rain, temperatures will soar to near 32 C as far north as central Alberta.

My local weather on Saturday was cloudy and warm with a high near 23 C, then rain arrived just about sunset.

M.T. Cranium · 13-05-2013 07:25AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 13 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy and cool with frequent showers, some with thunder and hail, winds W 40-70 km/hr (gusts to 90 km/hr possible in coastal northwest). Highs about 11-13 C and rainfalls 5-15 mm, heavier in Connacht, west Ulster.

TONIGHT ... Breezy to windy, showers continuing but more confined to west and north by midnight, winds W 30-50 km/hr and lows 3-5 C.

TUESDAY ... Winds freshening for part of the day to NW 35-55 km/hr then falling off to light northerly, frequent showers or periods of rain, cold. Highs only 9-12 C, feeling closer to 5 C in some regions during heavier rainfall. Rainfalls about 5-15 mm again, but more evenly distributed than Monday.

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, showers becoming heavy and possibly thundery at times, morning lows 2-4 C and highs 9-13 C. Not as windy but some moderate northwest breezes in west, north. Rainfalls about 5 to 10 mm.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Little change with further showers, and staying quite cool, lows 2-5 C and highs 11-14 C.

OUTLOOK ... While it's possible that things may improve gradually by about next weekend, there is now the possibility of the central European low that develops during this week might drift back towards Britain and spread cloud and light rain back to the west across Ireland. Other possible outcomes are more settled (partly cloudy, isolated showers, closer to normal temperatures) or at least a slow improvement with little change in the overall set-up.

Forecasts for Britain

In general, it's the same picture for Britain with several days of cool, windy and showery weather, in fact Scotland will see stronger winds than most of Ireland, and northern England about the same as Ireland, but the conditions further south will be no bargain, with frequent showers some of them intense with hail and thunder. This will continue off and on for about a week now. Highs will be generally 11-14 C. Normal values are closer to 15-18 C.

Forecasts for North America

Warm and dry in much of the central third of the U.S., and the desert regions of the southwestern U.S., with a rather weak outbreak of thunderstorms developing slowly across the northwestern states towards Salt Lake City and Denver, which may see an end to the warm spell Tuesday (but not further south for several days). The eastern states are warming back up towards normal values after a cool Sunday, and the far west continues to see cloud and occasional showery rain.

My local weather on Sunday was cloudy, rather warm and muggy with showers, nothing too heavy, highs about 18 C.

M.T. Cranium · 14-05-2013 07:55AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 14 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain across the south coast this morning, but the heavier amounts will stay offshore before heading for southern England later, 5-10 mm will fall along the coast from this feature. Meanwhile, a sunny start to the day in some central counties will quickly fade behind advancing showers from the northwest. Winds freshening for part of the day to NW 35-55 km/hr with frequent showers, some with hail or thunder. Highs only 9-12 C, feeling closer to 5 C in some regions during heavier rainfall. Rainfalls about 5-15 mm again, but a few spots south of Dublin and north of Wexford could remain drier with 2-5 mm. Showers may merge to periods of rain mid-day and afternoon in Connacht.

TONIGHT ... Breezy and cool with further showers, 2-5 mm rain, lows also in the 2-5 C range.

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, showers becoming heavy and possibly thundery at times, morning lows 2-4 C and highs 9-13 C. Not as windy but some moderate northwest breezes in west, north. Rainfalls about 5 to 10 mm.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Little change with further showers, and staying quite cool, lows 2-5 C and highs 11-14 C.

WEEKEND and FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The models have all converged on the same idea now, that low pressure will rebound off the European continent (probably not a real process but at this point, we have to blame somebody) and come back towards Ireland late Saturday, quite possibly with a drenching rainfall and strong northeast winds. If there's any "salvageable" part of the weekend it could be Saturday morning but this will be better determined closer to the time. Eventually this low will drift south again for a second and hopefully terminal loop around central Europe, during which time the pattern is likely to remain somewhat cool and unsettled although there's always the hope that higher pressure could build in from a ridge that might be able to link separate highs in the Atlantic and Russia. On various days, different models flirt with this outcome but we'll believe it when we see it, right?

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY, the rain heading to the south of Ireland will spread into southern England by mid-day and move north during the late afternoon and evening to reach Scotland by tonight. It will be a rather chilly day with highs not much better than 10 C in many areas.

After that, in general, it's the same picture for Britain as for Ireland, with several days of cool, windy and unsettled weather, with frequent showers, some of them intense with hail and thunder. The weekend "rebound" storm will arrive Friday night in southeast England, if in fact the rain ever gets past that point before backing up. Highs will be generally 11-14 C. Normal values are closer to 15-18 C.

Forecasts for North America

Warm, dry weather continues with little interruption across the central U.S. with weak fronts staying mostly to the north of Colorado to Missouri and bringing just isolated storms there, more intense in west-central Canada around Winnipeg and Thunder Bay where the warm fronts will stall out. Rain along the west coast continues in waves from offshore weak disturbances, amounts are generally slight (5-10 mm at most). The eastern half of North America is warming up slightly each day in a developing southwest flow, but today will be more cloudy than sunny, so highs may be held down to 20-24 C.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy with occasional showers, some heavy thunderstorms rolled by to the north but missed my location. The temperatures have cooled off to 14 C which is now a couple of degrees below normal.

M.T. Cranium · 15-05-2013 07:39AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 15 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, showers becoming heavy and possibly thundery at times, staying cooler than normal with highs 9-13 C. Moderate northwest to north winds stronger in west, north coasts, 40-65 km/hr there. Rainfalls about 5 to 10 mm. Another very changeable day with passing hail showers, opportunities for rainbow and hail photography, check for my updates around 2-4 p.m. if you're interested in following that theme.

TONIGHT ... Slack winds for a time as another pulse of low pressure arrives overhead, outbreaks of light rain or showers, cold with lows only 3-5 C.

THURSDAY ... Gradually becoming rather windy again (NW 30-50 km/hr) with further showers, some with hail and thunder, lightning. Highs 8-12 C.

FRIDAY ... Little change, breezy to windy, cool, showers ... lows 3-5 C and highs about 11-13 C.

SATURDAY ... Risk of a slight frost in some inland locations, lows generally 2-5 C, then morning sunny intervals, increasing mid-day cloud, rain arriving late afternoon or evening in the east as winds increase to NE 35-55 km/hr (and possibly higher depending on which guidance proves correct). Highs 11-14 C but quite chilly in the evening rain (7 C).

SUNDAY ... Rain could become heavy in the early morning, 20-40 mm potential, winds peaking around 0200h to 0600h then easing slowly with partial clearing later in the day especially across Connacht, winds NE 30-50 km/hr. Lows 6-8 C and highs 10-13 C. The weekend forecasts may sound dire but I should stress two things, a lot of the rain and wind will arrive overnight and ease before mid-day then also there is some uncertainty and the system could weaken (I don't think it will just miss entirely). And there's a third thing, you may be like me, not actually in Ireland this weekend. But that may not be a great help depending on where you are, there will be some rather dire weather in parts of Britain and Europe too, in the next few days.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There are more signs than in recent days of improvement next week, for what that's worth ... but I would like to see that trend solidify over two or three forecast cycles before inviting it out to lunch. Did I say out to lunch? That must be some other forecast.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Rain slowly easing to showers or drizzle, cold, mountain or hill snow, highs only about 4-7 C in some northern and (Wales) western regions. Winds cyclonic but easing and becoming more westerly in general. Sunny intervals developing in some parts of south. Highs 10-12 C at best in south.

OUTLOOK ... Frequent showers, turning to heavy rainfall in some areas by Saturday with gusty east winds, gradual improvements after Sunday. Temperatures remaining very cool for mid-May, highs 8-12 C.

Forecasts for North America

If you remember what I said yesterday, then you may actually care what happens today in North America, and you therefore already know because nothing much is going to change, a slow to incremental warming trend is underway in the east, it will stay very warm but not really hot and dry in central regions, 28 C on average, and showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across the Rockies and high plains. Rain will move inland at times from the west coast but this trend is weakening. My local weather on Tuesday started cloudy and ended sunny with a pleasant near normal high of 16 C.

M.T. Cranium · 15-05-2013 07:39AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 15 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, showers becoming heavy and possibly thundery at times, staying cooler than normal with highs 9-13 C. Moderate northwest to north winds stronger in west, north coasts, 40-65 km/hr there. Rainfalls about 5 to 10 mm. Another very changeable day with passing hail showers, opportunities for rainbow and hail photography, check for my updates around 2-4 p.m. if you're interested in following that theme.

TONIGHT ... Slack winds for a time as another pulse of low pressure arrives overhead, outbreaks of light rain or showers, cold with lows only 3-5 C.

THURSDAY ... Gradually becoming rather windy again (NW 30-50 km/hr) with further showers, some with hail and thunder, lightning. Highs 8-12 C.

FRIDAY ... Little change, breezy to windy, cool, showers ... lows 3-5 C and highs about 11-13 C.

SATURDAY ... Risk of a slight frost in some inland locations, lows generally 2-5 C, then morning sunny intervals, increasing mid-day cloud, rain arriving late afternoon or evening in the east as winds increase to NE 35-55 km/hr (and possibly higher depending on which guidance proves correct). Highs 11-14 C but quite chilly in the evening rain (7 C).

SUNDAY ... Rain could become heavy in the early morning, 20-40 mm potential, winds peaking around 0200h to 0600h then easing slowly with partial clearing later in the day especially across Connacht, winds NE 30-50 km/hr. Lows 6-8 C and highs 10-13 C. The weekend forecasts may sound dire but I should stress two things, a lot of the rain and wind will arrive overnight and ease before mid-day then also there is some uncertainty and the system could weaken (I don't think it will just miss entirely). And there's a third thing, you may be like me, not actually in Ireland this weekend. But that may not be a great help depending on where you are, there will be some rather dire weather in parts of Britain and Europe too, in the next few days.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There are more signs than in recent days of improvement next week, for what that's worth ... but I would like to see that trend solidify over two or three forecast cycles before inviting it out to lunch. Did I say out to lunch? That must be some other forecast.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Rain slowly easing to showers or drizzle, cold, mountain or hill snow, highs only about 4-7 C in some northern and (Wales) western regions. Winds cyclonic but easing and becoming more westerly in general. Sunny intervals developing in some parts of south. Highs 10-12 C at best in south.

OUTLOOK ... Frequent showers, turning to heavy rainfall in some areas by Saturday with gusty east winds, gradual improvements after Sunday. Temperatures remaining very cool for mid-May, highs 8-12 C.

Forecasts for North America

If you remember what I said yesterday, then you may actually care what happens today in North America, and you therefore already know because nothing much is going to change, a slow to incremental warming trend is underway in the east, it will stay very warm but not really hot and dry in central regions, 28 C on average, and showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across the Rockies and high plains. Rain will move inland at times from the west coast but this trend is weakening. My local weather on Tuesday started cloudy and ended sunny with a pleasant near normal high of 16 C.

M.T. Cranium · 16-05-2013 08:00AM

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 16 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Showers or periods of light rain will cover about half the country at various times, and eventually one or two showers could become heavier thunderstorms with hail, but conditions are going to be highly variable from place to place under a very slack wind regime that will allow small scale features to drift around with the morning trend being towards the east but the afternoon more towards the south. Your best bet is to watch the radar but expect much slower motion of shower cells than has been the case in recent days. Highs 11-14 C, and here again, temperatures will be quite variable as showers will mix down considerably cooler air at times.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, further showers, a drift more to the southwest will become apparent as winds pick up to become NE 15-35 km/hr. Lows 4-6 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, showers and a few thundershowers, heavier in the west, with an unusual east to west drift becoming a trend, possible heavy downpours and local spot flooding near west coast, but possibly a better day than most recent ones in parts of the inland east and south. Highs 12-14 C.

SATURDAY ... (from Friday night on ...) Showers ending around midnight then some clear intervals with risk of a slight frost in some inland locations, lows generally 2-5 C, then morning sunny intervals, increasing mid-day cloud, rain arriving late afternoon or evening in the east as winds increase to NW veering to NE 35-55 km/hr. Highs 11-14 C but quite chilly in the evening rain (7 C).

SUNDAY ... Rain could become heavy in the early morning, 20-40 mm potential, winds peaking around 0200h to 0600h then easing slowly with partial clearing later in the day especially across Connacht, winds NE 30-50 km/hr. Lows 6-8 C and highs 10-13 C. The weekend forecasts may sound dire but I should stress two things, a lot of the rain and wind will arrive overnight and ease before mid-day then also there is some uncertainty and the system could weaken (I don't think it will just miss entirely).

MONDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, possibly a dry day for some, as showers will be rather isolated (from current indications), lows 3-6 C and highs about 13-15C . Winds NE backing to N 30-50 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sun, a bit warmer, lows 3-7 C and highs about 15-18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unfortunately that break in the cool, wet weather might prove to be rather brief as another low forms near Iceland and heads southeast, increasing the light westerly gradient to stronger northwest by about Wednesday night or Thursday, and then temperatures may fall back to this week's levels, with further showers some with hail. However, this unsettled outcome is not certain and some model solutions maintain a dry spell longer.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Variable cloud, showers, one or two heavy with thunder and hail. Staying rather cool with highs 12-14 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, cool, showers or drizzly light rain, lows 4-6 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud with outbreaks of rain heavy at times in east, winds strengthening from the east, highs 12-15 C.

SATURDAY ... Heavy rain across south-central regions, some sun at times in Scotland but passing showers in gusty east to northeast winds. Highs about 12 to 14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather cloudy overall, some dry days possible next week, see Ireland forecast beyond Tuesday for longer-range trends.

Forecasts for North America

Today's severe outbreak near Dallas Texas will redevelop at possibly similar intensity levels further east in Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi. Otherwise, large sections of the central and eastern U.S. will be warm and humid with isolated clusters of storms along weak troughs. The Pacific northwest is cooler with cloud and scattered showers. The southwest will stay hot and dry in some southern regions but a front is advancing through Utah and Nevada with gusty winds and showers.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny to start, cloudy by afternoon, and one or two showers about at present, quite seasonable at 15 C earlier.

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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