Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 12 June, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, warm and humid to start, with any leftover showers clearing to the northeast then some sunny intervals in east-central counties around mid-day, but another round of showers and thunderstorms due later with some heavy falls possible across west Munster then later from Limerick towards Dublin during the afternoon and evening (potential for 20 mm there, somwehat lesser amounts to north and south of this zone). Stronger winds developing by evening from the south to southwest, veering to westerly by evening (40-60 km/hr). Afternoon highs 17-21 C. Watch for updates concerning the locally heavy rainfalls as the system arrives during the early afternoon in the west; peak rainfalls in Dublin are timed for about 8-11 p.m.

TONIGHT ... Further heavy showers in the east with embedded thunderstorms possible, becoming partly cloudy across the west with isolated showers in brisk westerly winds at 40-60 km/hr. Fresher towards midnight then lows falling to about 7-8 C. Further rainfalls about 10 mm in addition to daytime amounts as mentioned above.

THURSDAY ... Following the overnight showers with lows 7-10 C, sunny intervals will develop in central and southern counties, and it will become reasonably warm again (highs 16-19 C) although much fresher to start in the morning due to continuing brisk westerly winds that will back to southerly later (all in the 40-60 km/hr range). Isolated showers may develop in parts of the north and west later in the day. Thursday night now appears likely to be quite windy and wet in the Atlantic coastal regions especially towards dawn.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud east, rain likely from early morning in Connacht and west Munster, spreading across the country by afternoon as winds increase rapidly to SW 50-70 km/hr. Morning lows 7-12 C and highs 17-21 C in the east, 14-17 C west. Rainfalls of 10-20 mm likely. Some heavy thunderstorms could develop on a sharp cold front arriving by about 4-7 p.m. across west-central regions. The overnight period will be gusty from a southwesterly direction and showers will gradually ease to drizzle from southwest to northeast.

SATURDAY ... Windy at first (W 50-70 km/hr), showers ending, then some clearing and less windy by afternoon and evening. Lows 11-13 C and highs about 15-17 C. The day could turn out reasonably pleasant after a poor start.

SUNDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy although some longer sunny intervals possible in the midlands, some rain or showers may be developing across the south and possibly the east (Dublin southward) in northeast winds of 20-40 km/hr, but there remains a chance that the day will be largely dry in most places, if low pressure stays far enough south as it moves by ... lows near 7 C and highs near 15 to 17 C. (This was my take on things yesterday and nothing much has been clarified since then, the chances presently seem about even that rain will develop or stay off to the south).

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Warmer air will be making a return on east to southeast winds. This time there could be more humidity and less sunshine, with the potential for some thunderstorms to develop. Highs 18-23 C and very mild nights near 15 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There is no model consensus and some indications of an unsettled outcome in either a westerly flow or a cooler evolution of the mild southeast flow later in the week, but there is also a group of guidance charts that would indicate a warmer, relatively dry spell with strong high pressure in the immediate vicinity. If I had to guess which is more likely, I would say the warmer outcome because of continued indications of rising mid-level atmospheric temperatures over Europe in general. Everything past this weekend is very tentative at this time, however. I may update this longer term outlook from the new guidance that comes out at mid-afternoon, so look for any updates this evening on that subject.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... A few showers more prolonged in south Wales and southwest England as well as some parts of western Scotland, but partly cloudy with longer intervals of sunshine in some central regions until showers arrive later and relatively warm at 17-19 C.

TONIGHT ... Heavy rainfall moving into most regions especially Wales and north-central England, embedded thundershowers. Lows 11-14 C.

OUTLOOK ... From mid-week, the same trends and comments as in the Ireland forecasts apply to Britain. The trends are close to average for mid-June but relatively bland weather conditions in general, although another period of strong wind and heavy showers will likely hit Scotland around the weekend of the 15th-16th. Southern England could eventually see very warm weather redeveloping with highs back towards the mid-20s later in the weekend and into part of next week. That warm spell or even heat wave could be complete with thunderstorms in parts of the south.


Forecasts for North America

Heavy rainfalls will develop across the corn belt of the Midwest today and tonight with risk of some flooding in Iowa, northern Illinois and parts of the lower Great Lakes region. Severe thunderstorms could bring tornadoes and hail to regions just to the south of this heavy rainfall then even further south it will be hot and humid with highs near 33 C. The storms are currently around Nebraska and South Dakota but these regions will see much cooler northerly winds and rain moving south from Montana. Hot and dry conditions continue across the south central and southwest states.

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with sprinkles of rain at times and quite cool compared to recent days with highs only 14-15 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 13 June, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain until mid-morning in Leinster and Ulster, a further 10 mm likely, then sunny intervals already slowly developing in central and southern counties will spread to the east coast for the afternoon, and it will become reasonably warm again (highs 16-19 C) although feeling much fresher to start especially for Connacht and west Ulster where it's about to get rather breezy from brisk westerly winds (40-60 km/hr). Isolated mid-day showers may develop in parts of the north and west later in the day as clouds will be slower to clear there. Cloudy by late afternoon and evening with the next batch of rain arriving in the southwest by evening to midnight, while winds back to the south and increase in speed.

TONIGHT ... Periods of rain developing west, partly cloudy east, lows about 8 to 10 C in moderate south to southwest winds. Rainfall will reach about Donegal to north Tipp to Waterford by morning, 5-10 mm west of that zone.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud east, rain likely from early morning in Connacht and west Munster, spreading across the country by afternoon as winds increase rapidly to SW 50-70 km/hr, highs 17-21 C in the east, 14-17 C west. Further rainfalls of 10-20 mm likely. Some heavy thunderstorms could develop on a sharp cold front arriving by about 4-7 p.m. across west-central regions as winds veer sharply to WSW 40-60 km/hr. The overnight period will be gusty from a southwesterly direction and showers will gradually ease to drizzle from southwest to northeast while continuing as intermittent rain in Ulster.

SATURDAY ... Windy at first (W 50-70 km/hr), showers ending although somewhat later in Ulster, then some general clearing and less windy by afternoon and evening. Lows 11-13 C and highs about 15-17 C. The day could turn out reasonably pleasant after a poor start (poor due to rain and wind but these may have already left parts of the south and central regions by mid-morning).

SUNDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy although some longer sunny intervals possible in the midlands and north, some rain or showers may be developing across the south and possibly the east (Dublin southward) in northeast winds of 20-40 km/hr, but there remains a chance that the day will be largely dry in some or even most places, if low pressure stays far enough south as it moves by (this continues to be a source of confusion for the models which are taking turns tracking the low closer to then further away from the south coast) ... lows near 7 C and highs near 15 to 17 C. The evening and overnight could become foggy and drizzly as milder air tries to push back west for a time, but even so parts of the north could remain dry.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Somewhat warmer air will be making a return on east to northeast winds. This time there could be more humidity and less sunshine, with the potential for some showers and thunderstorms to develop. Highs 16-21 C and very mild nights near 12 C. This spell is rather uncertain as to details and seems likely to fizzle out when a more westerly flow redevelops, but we should get a more reliable idea of the details by Friday morning's forecast.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The set of maps we have for next week (especially mid-week and beyond) could go either way, it's a case of a reasonably warm southwest flow with high pressure not totally out of the picture to the south and Atlantic fronts and moisture probably not too far away to the northwest most of the time, so slight changes could mean a lot of difference to how the skies turn out, temperatures seem a bit easier to speculate on, as they should remain close to average for mid-June (17-19 C will be typical). If we could take the models at face value, I would say that the third week of June will be about in the middle of the spectrum established by weeks one and two. But by no means can we rule out a nicer outcome, it would only take about a 200 km northward shift of the features which, in seven days' time, is well within the standard error of the forecast models. If you're a pessimist you can guess the other side of that coin.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Widespread light to moderate rain, mild and humid. Highs 16-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Partial clearing with showers increasingly confined to Scotland, lows about 10-13 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers and some heavy thunderstorms developing in gusty south to southwest winds, highs 17-19 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Saturday will be windy and showery in most northern regions, partly cloudy and breezy in the south, highs about 16-17 C. Sunday will become partly sunny with risk of thunderstorms developing in the southwest and south central counties of England, a bit warmer at 17-21 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Monday-Tuesday could be rather unsettled but warm as a clash of hot, unstable air from the continent and cooler, also unstable maritime air masses takes place along a frontal trough advancing slowly through Britain from the west to east. Highs will be about 24 C in southeast England but otherwise 16-19 C. After that, it's basically the same story as the toss-up of guidance for the Irish forecast above.


Forecasts for North America

The strong frontal system that caused considerable havoc in the Midwest on Wednesday will do a repeat performance in the eastern states today, with heavy rainfalls and severe, sometimes tornadic, thunderstorms (the risk is greatest near and south of Washington DC). Expect at least delays if not a total washout of the first round of the US Open golf tournament near Philly. As much as 75-150 mm of rain could fall in that region. Temperatures will range from 30-33 C in Virginia and the Carolinas, to 20-25 C from DC to NYC, to about 17 C in Long Island and New England which will see cool northeast winds and steady rain or drizzle. The system has left behind a secondary low to drop a further 10-20 mm rain in the now soaked regions of the lower Great Lakes (some rainfalls of 100 mm have been reported and it continues overnight). Further west, there's a dry and pleasant air mass over the central states with highs near normal (25-29 C). It's cloudy and unsettled over the far west except in the desert southwest where today will be hot and dry.

My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy with isolated showers and some sunny breaks, highs 15-17 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 14 June, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Increasing cloud east, a band of showers moving rapidly northeast into Leinster and Ulster, followed by a brief dry interval in the west, then heavier bursts of rain arriving from the southwest with some thunderstorms embedded. This second more active frontal band will reach a line from about Sligo to Laois to Wexford by afternoon, and two areas of heavier showers and storms are likely in Connacht and the inland southeast. Rainfalls in total will be about 15-25 mm across the country. Highs 17-20 C in the east, 14-17 C west. Further rainfalls of 10-20 mm likely. Winds increasing to SSW 40-70 km/hr will veer sharply to WSW 40-60 km/hr with the afternoon to evening frontal passage.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with gusty winds from a southwesterly direction in the range of 40-60 km/hr (gusts to 80 km/hr in Atlantic coastal counties) and heavy showers will gradually ease to drizzle from the southwest to northeast while continuing as intermittent rain in Ulster and north Connacht. Lows will be around 8-10 C and further rainfalls about 5-10 mm.

SATURDAY ... Windy at first (W 50-70 km/hr), showers generally ending before mid-day although somewhat later in Ulster, then some general clearing with best sunshine in the south, as it becomes less windy by afternoon and evening. Highs about 15-17 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy although some longer sunny intervals possible in the midlands and north, some rain or showers may be developing across the south and possibly the east (Dublin southward) in northeast winds of 20-40 km/hr, but there remains a chance that the day will be largely dry in some or even most places, as the most recent guidance seems to be taking the low somewhat further south away from the south coast, which remains the most likely place to see any significant rainfalls -- this would be fortunate as rainfalls of 30 mm could develop offshore towards Cornwall and western France) ... morning lows near 7 C and highs near 15 to 17 C. The evening and overnight could become foggy and drizzly as milder air tries to push back west for a time, but even so parts of the north could remain dry.

MONDAY ... Somewhat warmer air will be making a return on east to northeast winds. This time there could be more humidity and less sunshine, with the potential for some showers and thunderstorms to develop. Highs 16-21 C after a low near 12 C. Any sunshine more likely for the northwest where it could come and go about one third to one half of the time.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud and isolated showers, near normal temperatures with lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C. Winds backing from northeast to northwest, moderate speeds of 20-40 km/hr, and on average about 7-8 hours of sunshine between cloudy intervals.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Yesterday's comments continue to apply, the overall look of the various model guidance would argue for a variable regime of rather bland weather conditions with some showers at times, some sunshine and a spell of variable winds later in the week then a return to moderate westerly winds by about the following weekend, with the highs mainly in the range of 17 to 20 C although one or two days around Thursday or Friday could be warmer still near 22 C. As I mentioned yesterday, a shift either way could change this either way so that we could say there's perhaps a 30$ chance of a warmer outcome (22 to 25 C would be about the upper limit on temperatures likely) and also a 30% chance of a more unsettled and likely cooler outcome where highs were only 15-18 C most days. The middle ground I have chosen to place as more likely (40% chance) would probably seem reasonably pleasant but more so in the southern half of the country which would be closer to the high pressure off to the southwest. Frontal systems would be mainly weak so that rainfall is not likely to be heavy in general but could be on a more isolated scale with local showers or storms possible.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Increasing cloud, showers and some heavy thunderstorms developing especially across Wales and southwest England, although some further east from remnants of Ireland's earlier band now moving through, with increasingly gusty south to southwest winds reaching 50-80 km/hr later and highs 17-19 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Saturday will be windy and showery in most northern regions, partly cloudy and breezy in the south, highs about 16-17 C. Sunday will become partly sunny with risk of thunderstorms developing in the southwest and south central counties of England, a bit warmer at 17-21 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Monday-Tuesday could be rather unsettled but warm as a clash of hot, unstable air from the continent and cooler, also unstable maritime air masses takes place along a frontal trough advancing slowly through Britain from the west to east. Highs will be about 24 C in southeast England but otherwise 16-19 C. After that, it's basically the same story as the toss-up of guidance for the Irish forecast above.


Forecasts for North America

The northeast U.S. remains in the backwash from the strong frontal system that moved through on Thursday (with breaks conveniently placed from the point of view of golf fans) but now the flow is generally northeast to north and temperatures have fallen off to near 15 C, later struggling to reach 17-18 C. Cloud extends a good distance back to the west before clearing skies are encountered around Chicago and further west, with highs responding more to the sunshine than any change in air mass, reaching 22-25 C. Severe storms are likely in the high plains and northern Rockies, with less severe but widespread showers and storms in the Canadian west except for the coast which remains dry and partly cloudy.

My local weather on Thursday was a mixture of sun and cloud with brief showers around the region, none of which came right overhead but could be seen off to the north and east. Highs were about 19 C.

M.T. Cranium

ALERT added for heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorm potential
_________________________________________________________

The accompanying map shows the timing and expected rainfall from now to midnight as a strong frontal trough moves through Ireland this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorm potential will be roughly equivalent to rainfall although the southern zone of heavier rain would be somewhat more likely to see severe thunderstorms than the northern zone, but basically Galway, inland Kerry, Cork and Waterford are most at risk with somewhat less risk in other zones indlcated in 15-20 mm amounts on the map. The event should be losing intensity when it arrives in Dublin later (watch for updates though) and will be more of a wind and rain without thunder situation by later tonight in most of Ulster.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 15 June, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rather windy at first (W 50-70 km/hr) across the north and west, scattered showers generally ending before mid-day although somewhat later in Ulster and near the west coast, but for most parts of the east and south expect general clearing with best sunshine in the afternoon and evening, as it becomes less windy. Highs about 15-17 C. Some further rainfalls of about 3 to 5 mm although many places will see only traces of rain.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals developing, mist patches inland, cool with lows around 6-8 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy although some longer sunny intervals possible in the midlands and north, some rain or showers may be developing across the south and possibly the east (Dublin southward) in northeast winds of 20-40 km/hr, but rain is not expected to be widespread or very heavy when it appears (2-4 mm) as the heavier amounts stay just off to the south of Cork and Waterford. Highs about 15-17 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, rather warm inland although a somewhat chilly sea breeze in some eastern counties as winds will continue generally east to northeast 20-40 km/hr. Highs 16-21 C with the warmer values in the west, after a low near 12 C. Any sunshine more likely for the northwest where it could come and go about one third to one half of the time. Slight risk of showers or an isolated thunderstorm inland west and south.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud and isolated showers, near normal temperatures with lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C. Winds backing from northeast to northwest, moderate speeds of 20-40 km/hr, and on average about 7-8 hours of sunshine between cloudy intervals.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy in the north with showers developing, moderate southwest winds 30-50 km/hr, highs 15-17 C. Partly cloudy with some good sunny intervals south, isolated showers later, highs 17-19 C.

THURSDAY ... Little change, variable cloud, showers mainly north, highs 15 north to 19 C south.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... At the moment, the end of next week and the following weekend look rather unsettled and cool, as another disruption to the weak ridge pattern develops (after the somewhat feeble attempt next week to build up the connection from Azores to northern European high centres). This is not entirely a settled deal yet and there is some chance of improvement, but in general any really warm and settled weather appears more likely towards the end of June when this disruptive trough for 21st-23rd may begin to fill up and become replaced by rising pressures. I think there could be some warm days near the end of June and start of July, we'll see anyway.


Forecasts for Britain

THIS WEEKEND ... Saturday will be windy and showery in most northern regions, partly cloudy and breezy in the south, highs about 16-17 C. Sunday will become partly sunny with risk of thunderstorms developing in the southwest and south central counties of England, a bit warmer at 17-21 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Monday-Tuesday could be rather unsettled but warm as a clash of hot, unstable air from the continent and cooler, also unstable maritime air masses takes place along a frontal trough advancing slowly through Britain from the west to east. Highs will be about 24 C in southeast England but otherwise 16-19 C. After that, it's basically the same story as the rather bland story for Ireland (see above).


Forecasts for North America

The weekend will be dry and increasingly warm in the east, with virtually no threat of rain at the U.S. Open golf event or anywhere else in the northeast, until Sunday night. At that time, a slow-moving but active frontal system that will spend most of the weekend bringing storms to the Midwest then Ohio valley and lower Great Lakes regions will arrive on the coast, but most of its active weather will be held back to Monday there. Highs generally 25-27 C in this region, trending to 30-32 C in warm, humid conditions further south.

Widespread showers will continue across the northern Rockies and in western Canada. A slight cooling trend will follow the advancing Midwest storms into the central plains states dropping temperatures back to the low-mid 20s but it will stay hot in Kansas and states further south and west, highs 35-42 C.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with occasional light showers, rather chilly at 15 C, but with some clearing towards sunset.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 16 June, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Light rain will spread gradually inland from the south coast and by mid-day it could be as far north as Dublin to Galway. The morning should be dry in most central districts (east to west that is) and most of the day will be dry with some sunny intervals in the north. This rainfall will not be overly heavy even in the south, 5-10 mm expected there, and 2-5 mm further north although one heavier burst of afternoon rain could develop in central Leinster. Highs 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... The rain may be most extensive by evening but at the same time it will be becoming more drizzly and should gradually end towards morning with just a further 2-4 mm in some parts. Lows 11-13 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, rather warm inland although a somewhat chilly sea breeze in some eastern counties as winds will continue generally east to northeast 20-40 km/hr. Highs 16-21 C with the warmer values in the west. The northwest should have the best of the sunshine with less frequent sunny intervals in the south. Slight risk of showers or an isolated thunderstorm inland west and south.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud and isolated showers, near normal temperatures with lows near 8 C and highs 17-20 C and feeling rather warm. Winds backing from east to northeast, moderate speeds of 20-40 km/hr, some sunshine likely between cloudy intervals.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, rather warm with isolated showers and risk of a thunderstorm, winds continuing from a northeasterly direction but becoming more variable with a turn to the northwest in Connacht, morning lows near 10 C and highs 17-20 C.

THURSDAY ... Little change, variable cloud, a few light showers mainly north, highs 15 north to 19 C south, as light northerly winds continue to back slowly to the northwest.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... At the moment, the end of next week and the following weekend look rather unsettled and cool, as another disruption to the weak ridge pattern develops (after the somewhat feeble attempt next week to build up the connection from Azores to northern European high centres). This is not entirely a settled deal yet and there is some chance of improvement, but in general any really warm and settled weather appears more likely towards the end of June when this disruptive trough for 21st-23rd may begin to fill up and become replaced by rising pressures. I think there could be some warm days near the end of June and start of July, we'll see anyway.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly cloudy with some light rain in the morning in the southwest, followed by a risk of thunderstorms developing in the southwest and south central counties of England, highs 16-19 C for most, 18-21 C southeast.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Monday-Tuesday could be rather unsettled but warm as a clash of hot, unstable air from the continent and cooler, also unstable maritime air masses takes place along a frontal trough advancing slowly through Britain from the west to east. Highs will be about 24 C in southeast England but otherwise 16-19 C. Wednesday could become even warmer in parts of southeast England with a higher risk of thunderstorms developing as hot air floods north to cover most of eastern France, Belgium and Germany -- some of that will try to move west Tuesday night and early Wednesday but may be pushed back by a front developing across western Britain, so this could set off some heavy storms around the Thames valley and inland southeast. After that, it's basically the same story as the rather bland story for Ireland (see above).


Forecasts for North America

Heavy showers and thunderstorms will develop across the Midwest and lower Great Lakes regions as very warm, humid air tries to push north but meets resistance from cooler, dry air over east-central Canada north of the central Great Lakes and in Quebec. The east coast of the U.S. will remain sunny and warm with highs 27-30 C. Most of the western regions meanwhile are under an elongated trough situated over the Rockies from northern B.C. southeast into Colorado. This is pulling very warm air slowly north out of the desert southwest but setting off numerous thunderstorms over mountain ranges especially from Idaho and Montana northwest. The west coast meanwhile is warm and dry.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny with extensive haze and high cloud, and it was quite warm at 23 C.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Sunday, 16 June, 2013
__________________________________

Regular readers please note, my forecasts may not appear on a very regular schedule for the next week, as we've been called away here on a family health matter and will be in a rather isolated location with perhaps limited opportunity to get on the internet. So if there isn't a forecast on Monday morning by 0900h perhaps somebody else could have a go for a day or two. I don't expect a very long disruption to my normal routines. -- MTC

kerry4sam

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

UPDATE _ Sunday, 16 June, 2013
__________________________________

Regular readers please note, my forecasts may not appear on a very regular schedule for the next week, as we've been called away here on a family health matter and will be in a rather isolated location with perhaps limited opportunity to get on the internet. So if there isn't a forecast on Monday morning by 0900h perhaps somebody else could have a go for a day or two. I don't expect a very long disruption to my normal routines. -- MTC

Ah Hope all will be okay

Harps

Hope everything's ok, don't have a lot of time but might as well give it a try..

TODAY... Patchy light rain and drizzle over much of the country this morning, a few heavier bursts possible along the east coast. Rain will fizzle out this afternoon with some sunny breaks. Highs of 17-19C, cooler along the east coast with an easterly breeze.

TONIGHT... A dry and calm night ahead, lows generally 9-11C

TOMORROW... Warm, calm and mainly dry, light showers possible. Hot tropical air is pushing north across Europe and will briefly affect us, a warm, humid day with highs of 23C or so inland south east, cooler in the west and north with highs of 16-19C.

WEDNESDAY... Mainly dry again, not as warm as Tuesday though still feeling mild, highs 16-20C.


EUROPE... As mentioned, unusually hot tropical air is moving north across Europe this week, this could lead to some extremely high temperatures of around 35C across France, Germany and Benelux, south east UK should reach mid-high 20's as well. Some spectacular thunderstorms also possible through the week where this air clashes with colder air

kerrywez

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

UPDATE _ Sunday, 16 June, 2013
__________________________________

Regular readers please note, my forecasts may not appear on a very regular schedule for the next week, as we've been called away here on a family health matter and will be in a rather isolated location with perhaps limited opportunity to get on the internet. So if there isn't a forecast on Monday morning by 0900h perhaps somebody else could have a go for a day or two. I don't expect a very long disruption to my normal routines. -- MTC

Hope all is well with your family very soon and all is back to normal for you. Thanks for all the weather reports you have given us, i find them invaluable for my fishing.

Best of luck Wez

dzer2

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

UPDATE _ Sunday, 16 June, 2013
__________________________________

Regular readers please note, my forecasts may not appear on a very regular schedule for the next week, as we've been called away here on a family health matter and will be in a rather isolated location with perhaps limited opportunity to get on the internet. So if there isn't a forecast on Monday morning by 0900h perhaps somebody else could have a go for a day or two. I don't expect a very long disruption to my normal routines. -- MTC

Hope all turns out well in the end D.

Old diesel

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

UPDATE _ Sunday, 16 June, 2013
__________________________________

Regular readers please note, my forecasts may not appear on a very regular schedule for the next week, as we've been called away here on a family health matter and will be in a rather isolated location with perhaps limited opportunity to get on the internet. So if there isn't a forecast on Monday morning by 0900h perhaps somebody else could have a go for a day or two. I don't expect a very long disruption to my normal routines. -- MTC

Very sorry to hear that MT - hope your family member can make a full recovery.

Storm 10

Best wishes MT to you and hope and pray things will turn out ok for your family.

delw

Hope all goes well MT
Fair play Harps

M.T. Cranium

Thank you all for kind remarks and to Harps for an excellent fill-in ... you're hired (my dream of retirement is coming true ) ...

seriously, since you've expressed concern, I should mention this is a case of a very elderly family member on my wife's side (my own family having either passed away many decades ago or much the same thing living in England, see how quickly I catch on?) ... and while we hope for the best it's one of those situations where a family has been called together for an imminent end of life and funeral (and not unexpectedly) so while it's a sad occasion it also has some aspects of a family reunion, my wife's family happening to live all over western Canada and not that close together for frequent visits. Also it's a large three-generation gathering making for a certain amount of joyful chaos (very little improved by my attempts to guess at the weather here from sky clues alone). Partly cloudy with afternoon thunderstorms works almost every day here anyway, so I appear to be more in touch than I probably am. My access situation is more of a daily cycle of computer availability and then being in a sleeping person's bedroom (wifi and cell phone access here are very limited due to the 3500m peaks on either side of this valley, I am where there should be a national park but isn't yet). Anyway, TMI perhaps, but then that's my stock in trade. I can't really concentrate on the actual weather today given a deep sense of disorientation from altitude and sleep deprivation despite the mountain air, but it's hot here compared to the coast, 27 C and sunny at times, shower debris cloud from western mountain range at other times). I may get back "in the saddle" around mid-week. Thanks again.

M.T. Cranium

Thank you all for kind remarks and to Harps for an excellent fill-in ... you're hired (my dream of retirement is coming true ) ...

seriously, since you've expressed concern, I should mention this is a case of a very elderly family member on my wife's side (my own family having either passed away many decades ago or much the same thing living in England, see how quickly I catch on?) ... and while we hope for the best it's one of those situations where a family has been called together for an imminent end of life and funeral (and not unexpectedly) so while it's a sad occasion it also has some aspects of a family reunion, my wife's family happening to live all over western Canada and not that close together for frequent visits. Also it's a large three-generation gathering making for a certain amount of joyful chaos (very little improved by my attempts to guess at the weather here from sky clues alone). Partly cloudy with afternoon thunderstorms works almost every day here anyway, so I appear to be more in touch than I probably am. My access situation is more of a daily cycle of computer availability and then being in a sleeping person's bedroom (wifi and cell phone access here are very limited due to the 3500m peaks on either side of this valley, I am where there should be a national park but isn't yet). Anyway, TMI perhaps, but then that's my stock in trade. I can't really concentrate on the actual weather today given a deep sense of disorientation from altitude and sleep deprivation despite the mountain air, but it's hot here compared to the coast, 27 C and sunny at times, shower debris cloud from western mountain range at other times). I may get back "in the saddle" around mid-week. Thanks again.

Should have some wonderful weather-scenery type photos to post in a few days anyway. They call this valley "Lucerne of the Rockies" and having been there I can see why. But we're actually in the Selkirk Mountains which form a parallel chain in east-central B.C., actually these are perhaps more scenic than the better known Rockies. Still a lot of snow around the lower peaks here, which range from 2000 to 2500m, the higher Selkirks are across a lake from where I am and then also further north by 30-40 miles. A much different world than the city by the coast, roads in the region closed due to grizzly bear hazards (I guess that works both ways).

Harps

Guess I'll go again

TODAY... Warm and mostly dry with some good sunny spells. Cloud will push into the west and north in the afternoon to give some coastal drizzle but it should stay dry elsewhere. Highs of 20-22C in the south eastern third of the country, 16-19C elsewhere though coastal areas will be a degree or two cooler. Winds light westerly.

TONIGHT... Mostly dry though again some coastal drizzle possible. Calm with clear spells, lows 9-13C, mildest in the east.

TOMORROW... Similar to today though not quite as warm, drizzle again possible in the west though mainly dry and calm with sunny spells. Highs of 15 to 21C, again highest in the south east, coolest in the west. Winds light west to north west.

THURSDAY... More cloud around though again staying warm in the south and east, highs 15-20C with the same split as previous days. Rain will spread into the west later in the day and eventually nationwide though should be mainly light.

FURTHER OUTLOOK... A return to more unsettled weather for Friday and through the weekend with low pressure moving in from the west giving a wet and windy few days, winds west to north west. Thereafter, signs of high pressure building though no real consensus on that yet

Rocky Bay

Showers and thunderstorms will frequent areas from the southern Plains to the lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys to the Southern and Mid-Atlantic coast today. Strong storms will reach into part of New England. Thunderstorms are in store for the Florida Peninsula and Rockies. Dry and cooler air is forecast to expand southeastward from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and interior Northeast. Sunshine, breezes and low humidity will cause fire weather to build in the Southwest, while the Northwest begins an onslaught of clouds and showers. (Plagiarized from the New York Times of 18/6/13.)

M.T. Cranium

^^ Can confirm the onslaught of showers and clouds, rumbles of thunder around here at about 0-dark-hundred. Appears oppressively hot in the western Med region, perhaps someone could check into all-time records for Corsica and Sardinia as temps close to 40 C on those two large islands today.

If you could just move Ireland to the GFS 8-16 day Fantasy Island mystery zone, you would have a tropical climate also.

omicron

From met.ie:

Today
Dry in most areas today, with sunny spells, but cloudier at times in the west and north, with a few spots of drizzle or light rain possible along north Connacht or Ulster coasts. Warm in many areas, with maximum temperatures of 18 to 20 Celsius in the midlands, east and south, but cooler in Atlantic coastal counties, with values of 14 to 16 Celsius. Winds mostly light, west to northwest or variable, but moderate southwesterly breezes along western and northern coasts.

Tonight

Dry in most areas at first tonight, with slack winds. Cloud will increase from the Atlantic, bringing outbreaks of mostly light rain and drizzle, mainly to the southwest, west and northwest. Patches of mist and fog also. Minimum temperatures 8 to 11 Celsius.



Tomorrow

Tomorrow, Thursday, will be quite warm and humid in many parts, with a good deal of cloud and with a little patchy rain or drizzle in places, mainly in the southwest, west and northwest. Some hazy sunshine will develop in places, especially in the east, but rain is likely to develop later in the east and southeast. Rather warm and humid, with maximum temperatures of 18 to 21 Celsius, but cooler once again in Atlantic coastal areas. Mostly light and variable winds.

Outlook

Headline : Changeable and unsettled weather continuing up until the end of the weekend, with below normal temperatures, but possibly improving next week.

Thursday night : Mostly cloudy, with rain in eastern and southeastern coastal counties. Mainly dry elsewhere, but a few spots of drizzle or light rain are possible. Patches of mist and fog also, with light winds. Min. 7 to 10 Celsius.

Friday : Any rain along the east coast will clear and it will become mainly dry during the morning, with sunny spells, but rain will develop in the west and southwest in the afternoon, spreading eastwards to all parts later, with fresh southerly winds. Max. 15 to 18 Celsius, highest in the east and south. Clearer weather, with showers, will follow on Friday night, with strong southwesterly winds. Turning cooler.

Weekend : Cool, with maximum temperatures of just 14 to 18 Celsius. There will be some sunny spells, but occasional showers also, some heavy, especially in the west and north, with a risk of thunder. Windy, with fresh to strong southwesterly winds veering northwesterly in direction.

Further outlook (next week) : Outlook uncertain, but early indications suggest a possible improvement to drier conditions next week, with warmer temperatures.

rickdangerouss

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

^^ Can confirm the onslaught of showers and clouds, rumbles of thunder around here at about 0-dark-hundred. Appears oppressively hot in the western Med region, perhaps someone could check into all-time records for Corsica and Sardinia as temps close to 40 C on those two large islands today.

If you could just move Ireland to the GFS 8-16 day Fantasy Island mystery zone, you would have a tropical climate also.

This is due to the "Chirocco" wind. Blown in from the Sahara. I know allot of people from Cagliari. The temp will dip in the coming days, as this wind is normally a few days to a week max. The other wind is the "Mistral"

Max temp at the moment is around 30-33c, In August it can get up to 45c in the cities.

Great, wondrous place. If you get a chance to go, you will get a tan for sure.

Israeli Superiority

Sirocco*

http://classic.wunderground.com/history/airport/LFKJ/2013/6/18/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

38*C in Ajaccio, I think that may be the record for June.

Rocky Bay

Cooler, less humid air will push showers and thunderstorms from the Ohio Valley to much of the Northeast today, but enough humid air will linger over the Middle Atlantic States and southern New England Coast to allow thunderstorms. Locally drenching showers and spotty gusty thunderstorms are expected from northeastern Texas to the Gulf Coast and over the southern Atlantic Coast. Locally severe storms are forecast for the High Plains. A potent storm will bring areas of drenching rain to part of Washington, Oregon and Idaho with severe storms affecting Montana and Wyoming. Breezy, hot and dry conditions with sunshine will raise the fire risk from Nevada and interior California to Utah, Arizona and western Colorado and New Mexico. (Plagiarized from the New York Times of 19/6/13.)

M.T. Cranium

Well, thanks again, I will be back to normal routines fairly soon, as we are now planning a funeral (not mine but if it keeps raining? ?) for the weekend but until then I can't get at the internet except at this time of day. Even now it is pretty dodgy as this may be the outer edge of cyber-space.

Yeah, I knew it was the sirocco wind but it seemed awfully warm even for that in Corsica. Seems that you have had a pleasant enough third week so far but not as exceptional as the first week. So it's basically 2-1 for good weather over bad weather although this week has some time left to go and Houston, we have a problem.

Calgary Alberta, not a long way from where I am, have rainfall warnings out for two months' worth of rain in the next two days. Waves of moisture are moving at a very leisurely pace from east to west across almost the whole of western Canada (this is our version of March I guess) and at this point there seems to be no holding them back whether by Canute or any other mountain king figures so we'll have to tough it out and expect a bumper crop of raspberries followed by hordes of grizzly bears (it is my duty to keep the tourism situation within manageable limits).

However there are intervals of better weather between these waves and then you get fine views of either scenery or stars and planets. I understand from the notes I brought along that Jupiter is at this very moment behind the Sun (come out with your moons up) and tonight anyone with clear skies will find Saturn close to the waxing gibbous moon (same general command). Off to the right of these two would be the bright star Spica and to the lower left, reddish Antares looking Mars-like (hence the name, "other" Mars). Mars is of course somewhat brighter at its closest approaches but in this very non-urban setting Antares looked very bright at midnight last night. Also, for those with binoculars, Mercury will now be very easy to pick off after sunset, once you've located very bright Venus, just scan to the lower left and find a "star" about 10-20 per cent the brilliance of Venus, a slightly red tinge but nothing very dramatically different from blue-white background stars, and that is Mercury which very shortly will dive back behind the curtains of the solar glare.

Here endeth the first lesson.

Mech1

Enjoy what you can of your downtime, yes it's a sad occasion but "a change is as good as a rest" they say.
Keep safe.

Harps

TODAY... Mostly cloudy with rain in the north and west slowly spreading east. Rain mainly light and patchy and some areas might stay dry. Warm again in inland Leinster with temps reaching around 22C. Cooler elsewhere, especially in the west, highs 16-20C. Wind light southerly, swinging to the west later.

TONIGHT... Mild with patchy light rain continuing. Lows staying in double figures with the south east not dropping lower than 14 or 15C.

TOMORROW...Starting off dry and mostly cloudy but rain will move in from the west in the evening, heaviest in the northern half of the country. Still mild to warm with highs about 16-20C, south east again getting the best of the warmth. Wind will pick up as the rain arrives with gale force SW'erlies possible along the west coast

SATURDAY... Most of the frontal rain will clear overnight to leave a cool, showery day with sunny spells. Wind staying strong throughout with a risk of isolated thunderstorms.

FURTHER OUTLOOK... Sunday will be similar to Saturday, cool with showers and a gusty NW'erly wind. Things will pick up again next week with Monday onwards looking milder again with more settled weather.

EUROPE... Very high temperatures and severe thunderstorms continuing across central Europe again today, eastern France, Benelux and northern Germany look like the best/worst place to be depending on your perspective.

Harps

TODAY... Dry and cloudy to begin with, cloud breaking up temporarily to give some sunny spells though rain will move in from the west later. It should reach the west coast by 2pm or so, spreading nationwide though the south east will fare best again and should stay mainly dry until late evening. Highs reaching 19-21C across Leinster, cooler elsewhere and not getting above 16C in the west.

TONIGHT... Patchy light rain and drizzle overnight with lowest temperatures generally 11-13C, a breezy SW'erly wind

TOMORROW... A cool, windy and showery day for Saturday. A few showers could be heavy with a chance of isolated thunderstorms though it should be pleasant enough between showers. The east again will be warmest with highs 17-19C here, only 14-17C in the west and north with the westerly breeze making it feel chilly.

TOMORROW NIGHT... Showers continuing, mainly in the north and west, mostly dry elsewhere. Lows 9-11C

SUNDAY... Roughly a repeat of Saturday with showers and sunny spells, showers heaviest in the north and west with a chance of thunder. Cool again with highs around 17C in the south and east, only 12-15C elsewhere, coldest in the North West with a strong NW'erly breeze.

FURTHER OUTLOOK... Next week looks ok at the moment, plenty of dry weather and staying reasonably warm though the west could see some rain at times. Monday and Tuesday should be mostly dry with good sunny spells, highs 15-19C generally.


I have no intentions of being up early tomorrow so someone else can take up the mantle!

M.T. Cranium

I hope to be able to return to active service at 0700h Saturday so don't anyone be setting an early alarm. There have been phenomenal amounts of rain in parts of western Canada especially between Calgary and Banff Alberta around Canmore where it continues today at 75-100 mm per day amounts. Where I'm situated, about halfway from Calgary to Vancouver as the eagle flies, it is more like 25-50 mm per day with no let-up. The local creeks have been bringing down a lot of trees and mud into the lake here so the surface now shows signs of being nature's dumping ground. This is of course how all the driftwood around the lake got there from years past. Fortunately the creek through the town where I'm staying is in a deep valley and can't really do much damage in the town no matter how far it rises, and so far it's within the first of two flood containment systems (although all they seem to protect is a little-used park below flood plain as defined by Noah).

As the rain is accompanied by temps near 13 C down here and 12 C up top, there has been a lot of snowmelt and creeks on the far side of the local valley to the east of here have gone way over their banks and washed out a highway but it's not either of our escape routes for Sunday and those are looking fine so far.

Flooding of historic proportions has apparently taken place around Canmore Alberta and that may be on your news too, but our portion of the situation in B.C. is relatively trivial so far and about like most other years at some point in May-June when a low decides to park over eastern Washington.

Anyway, as I anticipate a late evening around the house here both tonight and Saturday, I have better access to this internet station and can probably avoid much extensive small talk and other problems by getting my head back into the weather outside this valley and so should have something to offer then at about 0730h. Hope it will contain some good news but this past week does not seem to have been too hard to take -- certainly a lot better than my week of weather.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 22 June, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy preview: full moon at perigee occurs on Sunday about 1232h IST and this will combine with the anticipated strong W-NW winds to raise tidal levels around Donegal Bay and other exposed coasts by about 0.5m above published tide table values. Your view of the full moon tonight will be about the same as the following night, but my view of it could include its largest apparition should I be able to wake up just before sunrise here and get a clear view. As neither seems very likely, I am not sure why I mentioned it.

TODAY ... Breezy to windy at times, cool with passing showers, some heavy with hail and thunder especially in the north, rainfalls 5-15 mm and highs about 15 C north to 17 C south. Winds WSW 40-70 km/hr with some higher gusts in exposed northern locations, just a few sunny intervals in the south. Slight risk of a severe storm in east Ulster and north Leinster, inland Connacht.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud with further passing showers (3-5 mm) and strong westerly winds at times 40-70 km/hr. Lows 7-9 C.

SUNDAY ... Windy and quite cool with west to northwest winds of 50-80 km/hr improving later to 40-60, still quite a few showers around but with a trend to drier weather in the south and generally by late afternoon and evening. Highs 13-16 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, more isolated showers, much less windy and a bit warmer too, morning lows 6-8 C and afternoon highs 16-19 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, after a cool start becoming pleasantly warm, lows 5-8 C and highs 18-21 C.

OUTLOOK ... Several quite warm and dry days appear likely mid to late week with highs near or a little above normal in the lower 20s with potential to reach 24 C in eastern and inland southern counties as wind direction will be generally west to southwest. Rather breezy at times in the north, fairly light winds in the south. This should all make a rather un-summer-like weekend a distant memory by the start of the following weekend which could be at least a grade better if not several. There's a slight unsettled look to early July at the moment but not far from normal values.


Forecasts for Britain

The worst of the winds and showers won't hit England until tonight, Wales and eastern Scotland late afternoon, but western Scotland will share a similar forecast to Ulster as per the above. Highs today in southern parts of Britain could reach 19 C with 14 C about the best for western Scotland.

Sunday and Monday, then, will be the most unsettled period for southern Britain with highs 14-17 C and frequent showers, strong westerly winds at near gale force at times, while Scotland becomes even chillier at 12-15 C in frequent showers or longer periods of rain.

Recovery from this will begin later Monday in western Britain and on Tuesday elsewhere and the further outlook is similar to that for Ireland above.


Forecasts for North America

Heavy storms likely again today in the north-central plains states with scattered outbreaks of light rain in flood-ravaged western Canada, but nothing on the scale of earlier heavy rainfalls. Very warm to hot and humid in most of eastern North America and the south central states, highs well into the 20s or low 30s on the east coast and in the Midwest and Great Lakes.

My local weather comes from a different spot than usual, in southeast British Columbia, where the day was drizzly until late afternoon, then briefly sunny, and now distant lightning from storms over nearby mountain ranges. The high was about 16 C.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Sunday, 23 June, 2013
_______________________________

See the previous forecast as I'm not really able to find any really new indications from the early guidance and I don't think I will stay awake long enough to see the ECM this evening after a really long day and a rather extensive Saturday night dinner. No sign of the "supermoon" here yet, could be that the mountains are blocking any possible view of it so far.

Anyway, the maps show some potential for another relatively warm spell from mid-week on and the cooler days beyond next weekend don't look any cooler than average for early July so in general I would hazard the guess that temperatures might average 1-2 deg above normal in most regions for the next week or two (although not today which will run about 3 below normal in the daytime).

So for any further forecast, just consult the previous day factoring in day of the week and the North American picture will be similar with a slow eastward progression of features but some tendency to keep reloading storms in similar regions once they out-run their upper support. My local weather on Saturday was a bit improved over recent days and we even saw brief glimpses of the sun as well as a brief heavy downpour mid-afternoon, and it was a relatively warm 18 C with high enough humidity that it felt a bit muggy.

I should have some nice mountain scenery pictures but will have to upload them at home next week.