Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Monday, 24 June
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Once again without internet service for long intervals and just heading out to return home -- had a quick look on this kind person's laptop and don't see anything too different from earlier trends, sure looks nice enough in general from tomorrow to the end of the coming weekend. Will update in more detail at 0730h when I should be back at the Craniatorium. Currentlly 14 C and misty rain but we did manage one entire day of dry weather on Sunday and even a sunny afternoon (forest fire risk went from zero to are you kidding me?).

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Monday, 24 June
__________________________

Once again without internet service for long intervals and just heading out to return home -- had a quick look on this kind person's laptop and don't see anything too different from earlier trends, sure looks nice enough in general from tomorrow to the end of the coming weekend. Will update in more detail at 0730h when I should be back at the Craniatorium. Currentlly 14 C and misty rain but we did manage one entire day of dry weather on Sunday and even a sunny afternoon (forest fire risk went from zero to are you kidding me?).

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 25 June, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, hazy and rather warm. Expect some very light rain or drizzle in central and northern counties as a weakly organized warm front drifts east, but amounts trace to 2 mm. Highs 17-20 C with the warmest readings inland south, but any longer sunny intervals could raise temperatures to 21-22 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy and mild, lows 8-12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, hazy, quite warm with highs inland 20-23 C, near Atlantic and north coasts, 17-19 C with some persistent low cloud or sea fog in some places.

THURSDAY ... Morning showers or drizzly light rain may affect Ulster and Leinster for a few hours but it will otherwise remain partly cloudy and warm with highs generally 18-22 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... Warm with some sunshine each day, highs about 19 to 23 C but with potential for higher readings inland east and south if there's enough sunshine (25-27 C could be recorded in a few spots).

OUTLOOK ... Continuing rather warm in early July with weak frontal systems bringing small amounts of rain around late Tuesday or early Wednesday 2nd and 3rd, then again about four days further into the future, but also some long dry intervals too.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, a little warmer than recent days, isolated showers developing, highs 17-21 C.

OUTLOOK ... The warmer spell may not push all the way across Britain at first because of a system creating northerly surface winds over the North Sea and eastern portions of England, so once again (as with the early June warm spell) Ireland may warm up faster and see more sunshine, but western portions of Britain should be more similar, and eventually the differences should fade out with Britain seeing a warm end to June and start of July.

Forecasts for North America

It's basically hot and humid in most of the eastern U.S. and adjacent parts of southeast Canada with widespread thunderstorms developing in the southeast and later along a weak frontal system in the Midwest and lower Great Lakes regions. Another outbreak of heavy rain is developing in parts of western Canada and some parts of the northwest U.S. while further south it is seasonably warm to hot and dry in the southwest U.S. ... the heat is spreading rapidly into the south central states.

My weather on Monday was rainy most of the time while driving back to home base, but it began to clear as the sun was setting here on the west coast. The southern interior regions of B.C. have had more rain than usual and are looking very green compared to some years.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 26 June, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, hazy, quite warm with highs inland 20-23 C, while closer to Atlantic and north coasts, 16-19 C with some persistent low cloud or sea fog in some places. Feeling muggy and somewhat oppressive.

TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud except for some parts of inland south, rain arriving in Ulster towards midnight and in north Leinster towards daybreak. Lows 11-14 C.

THURSDAY ... Morning showers or drizzly light rain will affect Ulster and Leinster, nearby parts of Connacht, for a few hours giving about 5-8 mm in places, but further south and west it will remain partly cloudy and warm with highs generally 18-22 C (about 16-17 C in the rain but those areas may have somewhat higher temperatures towards late afternoon or early evening).

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... Warm with some sunshine each day, highs about 19 to 23 C but with potential for higher readings inland east and south if there's enough sunshine (25-27 C could be recorded in a few spots). Some rain, low cloud and fog may be present in the far north at times spreading some distance south but the trend will be generally dry in central and southern regions.

OUTLOOK ... Continuing rather warm in early July with weak frontal systems bringing either small amounts of rain or a few thundershowers around late Tuesday or early Wednesday 2nd and 3rd, then again about four days further into the future, but also some long dry intervals too.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny in west, a little warmer than recent days, with highs 17-21 C. Overcast with some showers in east, highs 15-17 C.

OUTLOOK ... The warmer spell may not push all the way across Britain at first because of a system creating northerly surface winds over the North Sea and eastern portions of England, so once again (as with the early June warm spell) Ireland may warm up faster and see more sunshine, but western portions of Britain should be more similar, and eventually the differences should fade out with Britain seeing a warm end to June and start of July.

Forecasts for North America

Heavy showers and thunderstorms will edge south from the lower Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio valley and inland northeast. Another region of heavy thunderstorms will be found in the northern plains states, eastern prairies and later into the upper Great Lakes by tonight. Otherwise it should be quite hot and humid in many regions. The west is generally warming up slowly after many days of cool, wet weather, but it remains a bit unsettled.

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with highs near 18 C and a few brief light showers.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 27 June, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Morning showers or drizzly light rain will affect Ulster and Leinster, nearby parts of Connacht, for a few hours giving about 5-8 mm in places -- the heaviest amounts will be in east Ulster and north Leinster, further west and south the rain will be quite light and intermittent but further still to the south and west including Munster it will remain partly cloudy and warm with highs generally 18-22 C (about 16-17 C in the rain but those areas may have somewhat higher temperatures towards late afternoon or early evening).

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy and mild, humid, with further outbreaks of drizzle or light rain near the north coast, misty inland, lows 10-13 C.

FRIDAY ... Light rain, fog or drizzle in some parts of north Ulster, mostly cloudy but dry across the northern parts of Connacht, rest of Ulster and much of Leinster, partly cloudy with warm sunny intervals further south ... highs between 16 C north coast and 22 C inland south.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy with some warm sunny intervals in parts of the south and east, lows 8-12 C and highs 18-22 C.

SUNDAY ... Little change with some warm sunny intervals, more cloud in north and parts of west, lows 8-12 C and highs 19-23 C.

OUTLOOK ... Monday and Tuesday could be just slightly cooler but will remain at least near seasonal averages at 18-21 C, then warmer again from Wednesday onward, with some chance of very warm or even hot weather developing during July. Any rain will tend to be spotty and perhaps showery and also confined mostly to the northern third, but low cloud and sea fog could be a part of the picture near the west coast and occasionally the south coast. The trend will be quite dry for Munster and south Leinster.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Overcast with rain developing during the morning in western regions and by afternoon in eastern parts, humid and somewhat warm ahead of the rain with highs 17-20 C.

OUTLOOK ... Friday will also see somewhat more widespread light rain in Britain than in most of Ireland and some of this will linger into Saturday. Otherwise the trends are similar for both Britain and Ireland and some parts of the south will become generally dry and rather warm by early July with some chance of very warm or even hot weather following in about a week to ten days.


Forecasts for North America

Hot and humid across most of the eastern and central U.S. with outbreaks of heavy thunderstorms in the Tennessee valley, Ohio valley and inland northeast spreading into the major cities along the east coast later on and overnight. Highs generally near or above 30 C trending to the high 30s in Texas. The southwest states will be hot and dry with a few isolated storms over higher terrain, highs well into the 40s. Western Canada and nearby parts of the northwest U.S. will be cloudy with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, rather warm but near normal at 23-26 C inland, 20 C near the west coast.

My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, and highs near 18 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 28 June, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Light rain, fog or drizzle in some parts of Ulster, mostly cloudy but dry across the central parts of Connacht, some parts of Ulster and much of Leinster, partly cloudy with warm sunny intervals further south ... highs between 16 C north coast and 22 C inland south. Any rainfall is likely to be rather slight, 1-3 mm.

TONIGHT ... Foggy or misty and quite mild, lows 10-13 C. Some further drizzle or light rain possible in north.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy with some warm sunny intervals in parts of the south and east, risk of showers at times in west and north, amounts rather slight, with highs 18-22 C.

SUNDAY ... Little change with some warm sunny intervals, more cloud in north and parts of west, lows 8-12 C and highs 19-23 C. Showers and even a thunderstorm possible by later Sunday as a cold front develops.

OUTLOOK ... Monday and Tuesday could be just slightly cooler but will remain at least near seasonal averages at 18-21 C, with dry weather in the south but some risk of showers in the north ... then warmer again from Wednesday onward, with some chance of very warm or even hot weather developing during July. Any rain will tend to be spotty and perhaps showery and also confined mostly to the northern third, but low cloud and sea fog could be a part of the picture near the west coast and occasionally the south coast. The trend will be quite dry for Munster and south Leinster.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Overcast with rain at times, humid and somewhat warm with highs about 18-21 C.

OUTLOOK ... Some further showers on Saturday. Otherwise the trends are similar for both Britain and Ireland and some parts of the south will become generally dry and rather warm by early July with some chance of very warm or even hot weather following in about a week to ten days.


Forecasts for North America

Hot and humid in many parts of the east and central U.S., outbreaks of heavy rain or thunderstorms in Oklahoma, eastern Kansas and spreading to Missouri then parts of the Midwest. Widespread thunderstorms in the eastern states. Hot and dry in the southwest, becoming warmer in other parts of the west as a ridge begins to develop over the Rockies. Highs about 40-45 C in lower elevations of the southwest.

My local weather on Thursday was cloudy with occasional rain and very humid with a high near 20 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 29 June, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

The main theme for the weather over the next week is highly changeable with fast-moving but sometimes rather weak fronts pushing across the country quite rapidly. The forecast may sound like a sort of dog's breakfast as a result, but your main challenge in following the forecast whether from here or elsewhere is likely to be timing the various systems for your area of interest. On the whole it may become a bit wetter than previous days especially Tuesday which is looking like it might top up the water tables with a general 15-25 mm, but warm dry conditions look set to return near the end of the week. Even so, this weekend looks fairly pleasant and between systems Wednesday could turn out very warm in the south.

TODAY ... Morning cloud and outbreaks of drizzly light rain will slowly give way to partly cloudy skies with some intervals of very warm sunshine likely in parts of the south and east, otherwise very close and feeling somewhat oppressive with highs 17-20 C under cloud in west and north, 20-23 C in south and east. Moderate WSW breezes developing may become rather blustery at times in coastal west and north and near hills in east and south.

TONIGHT ... Some low cloud and drizzle or sea fog, very mild, clear above the low cloud and for some inland locations, lows 11-14 C.

SUNDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sun, breezy to blustery at times, scattered but perhaps isolated showers (thunder and hail slight risk) along a fast-moving cold front, feeling fresher by afternoon and evening, highs 18-22 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, cooler in general and feeling fresher with morning lows 7-9 C and afternoon highs 15-18 C, some showers possible mainly in northwest and most of Ulster.

TUESDAY ... Periods of rain developing, some heavy downpours possible with a slight chance of thunder (15-25 mm potential), foggy in parts of north, lows around 13 C and highs around 17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Clearing before dawn then intervals of warm sunshine at least for some parts of south and east, followed by another fast-moving cold front with showers and thunderstorms. Lows near 15 C and highs near 22 C south and east, possibly 24 C in a few spots. Becoming very breezy (W 40-70 km/hr) during and after this frontal passage.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, passing showers, breezy and near normal temperatures, lows near 11 C and highs near 20 C.

OUTLOOK ... A warm to very warm (possibly hot in some cases) spell appears likely to develop from about Friday 5th onward for a week or more, details may change but some of the guidance would indicate hazy sunshine and highs in the mid 20s and possibly higher away from any sea breezes in a light and variable southeast wind flow.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few breaks, scattered outbreaks of light rain but also some intervals of warm sunshine, highs generally near 20 C.

OUTLOOK ... A similar forecast for most of Britain compared to Ireland as the systems are fast-moving and will sweep across both land masses, but Scotland being further north could see stronger winds on the same schedule and somewhat lower temperatures in general.


Forecasts for North America

Outbreaks of heavy rain across parts of the northeast, Ohio valley and mid-Atlantic, inland southeast states, expected to become very heavy or even torrential with some flooding possible (around Virginia to Pennsylvania and New Jersey, metro NYC looking to get the worst of this) through the weekend and into the first part of the week, from a slow-moving disturbance that would probably be rated a tropical storm if it had formed over the Atlantic instead of inland, but the results will be similar with 100-300 mm rainfall potential in these regions. Somewhat cooler and partial clearing in the upper Midwest and central to northern Great Lakes region as this system edges south away from them. Cloudy and somewhat cooler than recent days in much of the central plains region, but continued hot and dry in most of Texas which shares in a very hot and dry air mass over the southwest region, bringing highs well into the 40s across the desert regions and near 40 C in Texas. This heat is spreading north under a slowly developing upper ridge and will begin to dominate all western regions including parts of western Canada by later in the weekend, but first there could be a few isolated thunderstorms along weak frontal troughs being energized by the arrival of very warm air.

My local weather on Friday was cloudy and rather oppressively warm and humid with highs near 22 C, blue sky showing off to the south by evening as a hint of the heat wave expected to follow.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Sunday, 30 June, 2013
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Forecasts remain generally unchanged, more or less on holiday for three days for our long weekend so forgive this rather brief update, today looks set to begin with a fast-moving cold front with outbreaks of mostly light rain that could develop into heavier showers in the southeast and even give an isolated thunderstorm mid-day, but fresher westerly winds should follow by mid-day west and afternoon east, so the day should improve if in fact it needs much improvement.

Rest of forecast period looks about the same as before, Tuesday still looking rather wet and Wednesday quite changeable, then a warmer dry spell setting in towards the weekend.

Previous forecasts for Britain and North America as per the previous outlook, could mention that Phoenix AZ hit 48 C and Las Vegas NV 47 C in record-breaking heat on Saturday. It was sunny with isolated showers in southern B.C. where we are once again "on the move" and the highs were 25-30 C depending on elevation and distance from the coast. The real heat has not set in yet and the evening was rather cool with fog over rivers and small lakes, clear skies otherwise, all daytime showers have since dissipated.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 1 July, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals mid-day, outbreaks of rather drizzly showers for a time this morning should end with only slight amounts of trace to 2 mm, rather cool with moderate westerly breezes backing to southerly by afternoon, highs 14-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Periods of rain (10-15 mm) with fog developing, blustery south to southwest winds 40-70 km/hr, mild with lows 12-14 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain easing to showers, some bright or even sunny spells by afternoon, then further showers and windy as strong southwest winds veer to west at 50-80 km/hr. Highs 17-21 C with slight risk of a thunderstorm in south central counties. Further rainfalls about 5-8 mm.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy and rather warm with a few morning showers, sunny intervals following and moderate westerly winds backing to south or southwest later, morning lows about 12 C and afternoon highs 18-22 C.

THURSDAY ... Early morning showers or periods of rain, blustery and turning a bit cooler again, then partly to mostly cloudy for the day with scattered showers and slight chance of a thunderstorm, morning lows near 12 C and afternoon highs 17-19 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, warmer, lows near 11 C and highs near 21 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Sunny intervals, warm, highs 22-25 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Warmth could build into a spell of very warm or even hot weather at times with possibly a few brief interruptions of more cloudy and showery intervals, but on the whole the outlook has to be rated as good if not excellent.

Forecasts for Britain

The general pattern will be similar although timed a few hours later in most cases, and also with stronger wind gusts at times in some parts of Scotland and northern England as they will see stronger phases of the frontal systems moving across. Today will see mostly cloudy skies and a few showers with highs 17-21 C.

Forecasts for North America

Hot and mostly dry weather across the west with record heat in many places, outbreaks of brief and largely dry thunderstorms over the desert southwest, unbroken sunshine further north, highs in the range of 35 to 48 C and even parts of western Canada seeing 32-40 C. Central states and provinces of Canada will be dry and sunny with more seasonable temperatures near 30 C. The eastern third is showery with some heavy rainfall amounts likely near Washington, Philadelphia and New York City.

My local weather on Sunday in south central B.C. was sunny and hot, near 32 at my location where there is a bit of a lake breeze to cool things off compared to some other regions, currently clear and 18 C.

M.T. Cranium

FORECAST UPDATE _ Tuesday 2 July, 2013
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Forecast remains essentially unchanged, the prospects appear very good for a warm to hot spell developing through Friday and Saturday then lasting at least several days.

Please note that as I am travelling late Tuesday into Wednesday morning (in my time zone) the next forecast will be issued around 0900-1000h Wednesday, a little later than usual.

Although there are no substantial changes, I will just mention that the rest of today should become partly cloudy with the showers more isolated by late morning and then another minor burst of showers could develop overnight, then it should partly clear again for Wednesday's mid-day and afternoon hours, before a rather weak cold front arrives. That may bring some locally heavy showers or even a thunderstorm in one or two locations Thursday early morning hours, after which things should steadily improve into the weekend.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 3 July, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

Wow! High pressure in July.

TODAY ... Improving conditions for most of the south and central counties as cloud thins to allow for some warm sunny intervals, highs 18-22 C, but west coast and northern regions in general could see further drizzle or light rain and some low cloud at times, with 1-3 mm rain and highs 16-18 C. Winds generally moderate west backing to southwest 25-45 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Showers and slight risk of a thunderstorm, breezy, winds SW 30-50 km/hr, 2-5 mm rain on average with heavier amounts in north, lows 11-14 C.

THURSDAY ... Gradual clearing of morning cloud as showers end and move away to east, moderate westerly breezes and somewhat fresher feeling than today with highs near 17 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, some persistent low cloud in northwest, morning lows about 7-9 C and afternoon highs 17-21 C.

SATURDAY ... Mostly sunny and warmer, some cloud and drizzle or fog may brush parts of outer northwest coast and Ulster, but for most a fine day with highs around 21-24 C.

SUNDAY ... Mostly sunny, warm, highs 22-25 C.

OUTLOOK ... Several days if not all of next week are looking sunny and very warm or even hot with potential for highs to reach 25-30 C inland, 20-23 C in sea breezes around south and east coasts. At the moment the thunderstorm risk is difficult to assess, probably very little chance on the whole but one or two could develop during the week.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy, warm and humid, a few outbreaks of light rain mostly this morning, sunny intervals developing in west towards mid-afternoon, highs 19-22 C.

OUTLOOK ... Pretty much the same story as for Ireland with a lot of warm sunshine ahead and even Scotland should be included but the warmest temperatures in Britain (possibly near 30 C) will be in the south central, inland southeast, Midlands and south Wales, although many places should easily get into the mid-20s.

Forecasts for North America

The eastern seaboard will continue to see outbreaks of very heavy rainfall and warm, humid conditions, but further west the showers will be much more isolated and large parts of the central plains states will be hot and dry. The intense heat wave continues in parts of the inland west and southwest with isolated thunderstorms mainly over higher terrain, and along a weak cold front now dropping south into Alberta and southeast B.C., but behind that the air is almost as warm once it moves inland from the Pacific, so temperatures just drop a few degrees from the mid-30s to about 28 C. Nights are somewhat cooler in this reinforcement of high pressure, instead of low 20s, more like 13-16 C.

My not-so-local weather on Tuesday was sunny and hot for most of the day, high near 35 C then a weak cold front tried to kick off some thunderstorms, saw one off to my north but nothing much while driving home. Currently hazy clear skies and about 16 C at 0200h in Vancouver.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 4 July, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

The only debate seems to be whether the coming week will be best described as very warm or hot. With potential for highs in the mid to upper twenties and even 30 degrees in a few favoured spots, it will probably strike most as being hot, but I think it will stay a few degrees below record heat levels of past years, unless the guidance changes a bit -- all that's missing for that extreme outcome is the support of higher temperatures and thicknesses than indicated at present, but even so, with a scorching sun likely to be the dominant feature for the week ahead, there will be a risk of drought conditions and even some fires breaking out. The chance of any thunderstorm activity seems remote except for one feature that develops when cooler air briefly pushes south and west across parts of Britain, where there will be a higher risk of storms in western regions by mid-week, and some of that could be echoed over Ireland, but even there, chances are probably something like 20 per cent at most.

TODAY ... Gradual clearing of morning cloud as showers end and move away to east, moderate westerly breezes and somewhat fresher feeling than yesteray with highs near 17 C although with longer intervals of sunshine the inland south could reach 19 or 20 C. Winds WSW 30-50 km/hr will make for rapid drying after the sporadic rainfall.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, lows 8-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, some persistent low cloud in northwest, afternoon highs 17-21 C.

SATURDAY ... After a clear night for most (cloudy far north) with lows about 10 to 12 C, the day will become mostly sunny and warmer, some cloud and drizzle or fog may brush parts of outer northwest coast and Ulster, but for most a fine day with highs around 21-24 C. Cloudiness will probably range from 75% in north to about 25% in south, hazy sun through higher cloud being prevalent across the central regions.

SUNDAY ... Any remnant cloud or marine fog should burn off in most coastal and northern regions, morning lows 9-13 C, with the daytime trend mostly sunny, warm, highs 22-25 C except where weak sea breezes develop in a very light wind field generally, highs 16-19 C closer to outer coasts.

OUTLOOK ... Several days and probably in fact all of next week are looking sunny and very warm or even hot with potential for highs to reach 25-30 C inland, 20-23 C in sea breezes around south and east coasts. At the moment the thunderstorm risk is difficult to assess, probably very little chance on the whole but one or two could develop during the week, in particular inland east and north mid-week when weak frontal zones could develop north-south and push slowly west in response to cooling at lower levels in eastern England. This looks like being a case of one or two isolated and short-lived storm cells that could have little impact on most of the country. Although all regions will be very warm, the most intense heat would be likely to develop across the inland south, midlands, and west with parts of Ulster and Leinster as well as the outer south coast generally a degree or two cooler (4-6 C cooler on some outer coasts) due to weak sea breezes. For example, average highs during the peak of the warm spell would likely be around 25 C in Dublin but 28 C in Mullingar and Oak Park, and near 29 C in some parts of the inland west. Humidity levels will be rather low and could in fact be very low in some cases leading to parching of soils and grass cover, and the risk of gorse or range fires. That could add smoke haze to the overall picture of the weather in greater detail. Winds will generally be very light east to southeast past Saturday's moderate south to southwest flow, but with local variations due to sea breezes.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Showers and chance of a thunderstorm, moderate SW winds and highs 18-22 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers ending, clearing, lows 10-13 C.

OUTLOOK ... Pretty much the same story as for Ireland with a lot of warm sunshine ahead and even Scotland should be included at times around Sunday-Monday and later in the week, with an interruption possible in most of Scotland and parts of eastern England mid-week as cooler air briefly pushes south and some distance west from the North Sea (inland highs 18-22 C in this cooler air mass, coastal 14-17 C) but the warmest temperatures in Britain (possibly near 30 C) will be in the south central, inland southeast, Midlands and south Wales, trending to about 25-28 C elsewhere except for that mid-week cooler interlude. An overall peak of this hot spell is likely to come as late as the weekend of 13th-14th and eventually highs of 31-34 C are possible in southeast England and 32-36 C in France.

Forecasts for North America

The main story in the east is relentless waves of moisture heading north from the eastern Gulf of Mexico and some excessive rainfalls will continue to develop in parts of the inland southeast, with at least moderate rainfalls from sporadic thunderstorms further north as far as New England. The regime a bit further north and west is somewhat cloudy and cooler than average, trending to warm and dry in the central plains and hot in the far west. Weak frontal systems rippling east across the Rockies are bringing isolated storms to parts of western Canada but in general it's near 30 C well into western Canada and near 35 C in border regions to near 45 C in the southwest U.S. where the intense heat has broken only slightly from peak values a few days ago.

My local weather on Wednesday was basically a preview of the long-range outlook for Ireland, clear and sunny with low humidity, not much of a breeze and 24 C but feeling hot in the sun.

highdef

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The only debate seems to be whether the coming week will be best described as very warm or hot.

Well I have noticed (in a very non scientific way) that on BBC weather forecasts, the words used to describe the heat level tend to follow the Fahrenheit scale in blocks of approx 10F, plus a change in description between the 20's and 30's celcius. In other words:

21 - 26c (70 - 79F) - Warm
27 - 29c (81 - 85F) - Very Warm
30 - 31c (86 - 88F) - Hot
32+ (90F +) - Very hot

It might be something slightly different to the above but it tends to follow that kind of wording. This is on the BBC and is thus for the British climate which warmer than here so I would say the Irish terminology would be a bit different.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 5 July, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

The forecast is basically unchanged but I have edited out yesterday's rather lengthy commentaries, if you want those, check out the forecast package dated Thursday 4 July. The warmer air is getting established today and will be around for at least a week and possibly longer.

TODAY ... Sunny intervals developing, longer intervals to unbroken sunshine further south, but some persistent low cloud in far northwest with drizzle at times there, afternoon highs for most 18-23 C, possibly even a bit higher near east coast since a southwest wind continues until this evening at 30-50 km/hr but only 14-16 C around north Donegal and Derry.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, a bit more cloud in the far north, mild with the southwest breeze dying out to a light southerly or calm inland, lows 9-12 C.

SATURDAY ... After a clear night for most (cloudy far north) with lows about 10 to 12 C, the day will become mostly sunny and warmer, some low cloud and drizzle or fog may brush parts of outer northwest coast and north Ulster, but for most a fine day with highs around 22-25 C. Cloudiness will probably range from 75% in north to about 25% in south, hazy sun through higher cloud being prevalent across the central regions. With the change to south backing to southeast breezes, stronger sea breezes could be felt on the south and east coasts but these will not move inland very far. Sea fog may be rather limited in extent due to the dry nature of the air mass.

SUNDAY ... Any remnant cloud or marine fog should burn off in most coastal and northern regions, morning lows 9-13 C, with the daytime trend mostly sunny, warm, highs 23-27 C except where weak sea breezes develop in a very light wind field generally, highs 16-19 C closer to outer coasts.

OUTLOOK ... Several days and probably in fact all of next week are looking sunny and very warm or even hot with strong potential for highs to reach 26-31 C inland, 18-23 C in sea breezes around south and east coasts. At the moment the thunderstorm risk is difficult to assess, probably very little chance on the whole but one or two could develop during the week, in particular inland east and north mid-week when weak frontal zones could develop north-south and push slowly west in response to cooling at lower levels in eastern England. This looks like being a case of one or two isolated and short-lived storm cells on Wednesday that could have little impact on most of the country. Even for Britain where a stronger frontal boundary could develop, the outlook is only for a few isolated storm cells. Any storm that does develop would tend to drift erratically or remain in place before dying out. In otherwise clear skies they should be easy to spot from a considerable distance. Although all regions will be very warm, the most intense heat would be likely to develop across the inland south, midlands, and west with parts of Ulster and Leinster as well as the outer south coast generally a degree or two cooler (4-6 C cooler on some outer coasts) due to weak sea breezes. For example, average highs during the peak of the warm spell would likely be around 26-27 C in Dublin but 28-29 C in Mullingar and Oak Park, and near 30 C in some parts of the inland west. Humidity levels will be rather low and could in fact be very low in some cases (20-40 per cent not unlikely as dew points will only be 12-14 C) leading to parching of soils and grass cover, and the risk of gorse or range fires. That could add smoke haze to the overall picture of the weather in greater detail. Winds will generally be very light east to southeast past Saturday's moderate south to southwest flow, but with local variations due to sea breezes. Another detail to add is that overnight lows could be in the range of 13-17 C but temperatures will be well up into the 19-21 C range by the time most people start their day, and it will remain quite warm overnight until well past midnight, during the core of this warm to hot spell.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Sunny intervals and warmer in the south and Midlands, Wales with more frequent cloudy intervals further north, winds moderate southwesterly at 25-45 km/hr south, 35-60 km/hr in north, where a slight risk of showers in western Scotland will be present until late afternoon. Highs 21-25 C in south and about 16-19 C north.

TONIGHT ... Mainly clear but partly cloudy in Scotland, mild with lows around 11-14 C although a few calm valley locations dropping to 7-8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Pretty much the same story as for Ireland with a lot of warm sunshine ahead and even Scotland should be included at times around Sunday-Monday and later in the week, with an interruption possible in most of Scotland and parts of eastern England mid-week as cooler air briefly pushes south and some distance west from the North Sea (inland highs 18-22 C in this cooler air mass, coastal 14-17 C) but the warmest temperatures in Britain (possibly near 30 C) will be in the south central, inland southeast, Midlands and south Wales, trending to about 25-28 C elsewhere except for that mid-week cooler interlude. An overall peak of this hot spell is likely to come as late as the weekend of 13th-14th and eventually highs of 31-34 C are possible in southeast England and 32-36 C in France.


Forecasts for North America

Persistent bands of heavy showers or thunderstorms in eastern regions are showing some signs of drifting west away from the coastal cities and more focused now over the Appalachian mountains from PA south to VA/WV, NC-SC, e TN and GA. This will allow hot and humid conditions near 31 C to return to the east coast but in the more showery regions highs will be generally around 24-27 C. The central states remain in a rather average and dry wedge although some outbreaks of heavy thunderstorms continue in the Rockies and foothills. The southwest and Great Basin regions are maintaining hotter than average conditions with outbreaks of thunderstorms over mountain ranges mostly. Western Canada continues to see frequent outbreaks of heavy thunderstorms along slow-moving and weak frontal boundaries as Pacific air tries to work inland and replace the hot continental air mass but as they collide they tend to mix out with highs generally around 30 C.

My local weather on Thursday was delightfully cooler mainly due to a sea breeze regime, some cloud at times but dry and around 23 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 6 July, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... With some cloud or fog to burn off in parts of Leinster early this morning, the day will become mostly sunny and warmer, meanwhile some low cloud and drizzle or fog may brush parts of outer northwest coast and north Ulster, but for most a fine day with highs around 22-25 C. Cloudiness will probably range from 75% in north to about 25% in south, hazy sun through higher cloud being prevalent across the central regions and even into parts of the north. With the change to south backing to southeast breezes, stronger sea breezes could be felt on the south and east coasts but these will not move inland very far before losing their ability to cool temperatures by more than a degree or two. Sea fog may be rather limited in extent due to the dry nature of the air mass but some could appear off east or south coasts at times, and drift over a few outer headlands from time to time, where also it will be closer to 15-17 C due to the cool oceanic temperatures.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals with haze and some fog developing well after midnight lasting to about 0700h in places. Lows 9-13 C.

SUNDAY ... Any remnant cloud or marine fog should burn off in most coastal and northern regions, with the daytime trend mostly sunny, very warm, highs 23-27 C except where weak sea breezes develop in a very light wind field generally, highs 16-19 C closer to outer coasts with drifting patches of mist or sea fog possible again.

MONDAY ... Sunny and very warm, or even hot in some inland sections, highs generally 26-29 C and could touch 30 C in a few spots, but 23-26 C in sea breeze zones and 17-20 C across some outer coastal headlands. Light winds but sea breezes will reach 20-30 km/hr in various onshore directions.

OUTLOOK ... Several more days and probably in fact all of next week, and the following weekend too, are looking sunny and very warm or even hot with strong potential for highs to reach 26-31 C inland, 18-23 C in sea breezes around south and east coasts. The overall risk of any thunderstorms is quite low but one or two could develop at various times, with Wednesday looking somewhat more active due to weak westward-drifting frontal boundaries set off by somewhat cooler air moving into eastern England briefly. Any local thunderstorms could become heavy but they should be isolated and slow-moving. The overall theme is likely to be scorching sunshine and low to moderate humidity levels, and even some risk of fires that could add smoke haze to the overall picture especially in regions normally prone to fire hazards.

The breakdown of this warm to hot spell is very indefinite on the charts and the most likely scenario is a gradual and rather subtle change back to somewhat more normal temperatures in about a week to ten days but that could be followed by another warm to hot spell.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Sunny intervals and warm to very warm in the south and Midlands, Wales, highs 24-27 C inland but 17-20 C in sea breeze zones ... partly cloudy to overcast skies further north with some intermittent light rain in parts of Scotland, winds moderate southwesterly at 25-45 km/hr, highs inland 20-23 C but 16-19 C west coasts of Scotland and northwest England.

TONIGHT ... Mainly clear but partly cloudy in Scotland, mild with lows around 11-14 C with fog patches developing.

OUTLOOK ... Pretty much the same story as for Ireland with a lot of warm sunshine ahead and even Scotland should be included at times around Sunday-Monday and later in the week, with an interruption possible in most of Scotland and parts of eastern England mid-week as cooler air briefly pushes south and some distance west from the North Sea (inland highs 18-22 C in this cooler air mass, coastal 14-17 C) but the warmest temperatures in Britain (possibly near 30 to 32 C) will be in the south central, inland southeast, Midlands and south Wales, trending to about 25-28 C elsewhere except for that mid-week cooler interlude. An overall peak of this hot spell is likely to come as late as the weekend of 13th-14th in southeast England, and eventually highs of 31-34 C are possible in London and region with 32-36 C in France and Belgium (with weak cooling near some coasts but even the beach towns are likely to be in the high 20s). there will also be one or two thunderstorms possible at times especially in western Britain mid-week.


Forecasts for North America

The heavy rainfall zone is now becoming more confined to the inland southeast but isolated storms are possible in parts of the northeast U.S. in otherwise fair and hot humid conditions with highs into the 32-35 C range and very warm, muggy nights. Further west and into the Great Lakes region, more moderate but typical July conditions with highs 29-32 C. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms across the northern plains, Canadian prairies, and parts of the Rocky Mountain states, trending to fair and warm on the west coast under a developing new ridge that will lead to a hot dry spell later.

My local weather on Friday was once again very pleasant with sunshine, low humidity and highs near 25 C. So we're keeping up with that notable hot spot, namely Ireland.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 7 July, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some rather extensive morning low cloud, mist or marine fog should gradually dissipate and lead to hazy sunshine. Highs inland will reach 23-27 C and it may feel even warmer due to moderately high humidity levels. Some widely scattered showers or thunderstorms could develop especially in parts of Ulster and east Connacht this afternoon. Sea breezes will develop in an otherwise very light wind field generally, with highs 16-19 C closer to outer coasts where drifting patches of mist or sea fog will be possible and possibly rather widespread.

TONIGHT ... Hazy clear skies for some, low cloud or mist and fog elsewhere more likely closer to south and west coasts, lows 13-17 C. Feeling rather muggy and oppressive.

MONDAY ... Some morning cloud again, then mostly sunny and very warm, or even hot in some inland sections, highs generally 26-29 C and could touch 30 C in a few spots, but 23-26 C in sea breeze zones and 17-20 C across some outer coastal headlands. Light winds but sea breezes will reach 20-30 km/hr in various onshore directions. Slight risk of isolated thunderstorms inland southwest and north.

TUESDAY ... Hazy sunshine, very warm, isolated thunderstorms possible. Highs around 24-28 C except 17-20 C in sea breezes with some fog, mist or low cloud near some coasts.

WEDNESDAY ... Little change except that east coast sea breezes may be a little stronger, resulting in some cooling in parts of inland Leinster. Otherwise, highs about 23-27 C and risk of isolated thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK ... The very warm (possibly hot to some) spell will continue with little change until near the end of next weekend. Following that, it could turn a few degrees cooler with fresher westerly breezes and highs 20-22 C but then would be likely to start warming up again a few days after that.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine, very warm inland with highs 26-29 C. Some drifting fog or low cloud near some coasts, and generally cooler in sea breezes, 15-19 C outer coasts and 20-24 C some distance inland. One or two thunderstorms possible in parts of inland northwest to west Midlands.

TONIGHT ... Clear but hazy, quite warm. Lows 14-17 C for most, near 10 C in a few valleys under clear skies, fog patches likely.

OUTLOOK ... Pretty much the same story as for Ireland with a lot of warm sunshine ahead and even Scotland should be included at times around Sunday-Monday and later in the week, with an interruption possible in most of Scotland and parts of eastern England mid-week as cooler air briefly pushes south and some distance west from the North Sea (inland highs 18-22 C in this cooler air mass, coastal 14-17 C) but the warmest temperatures in Britain (possibly near 30 to 32 C) will be in the south central, inland southeast, Midlands and south Wales, trending to about 25-28 C elsewhere except for that mid-week cooler interlude. An overall peak of this hot spell is likely to come as late as the weekend of 13th-14th in southeast England, and eventually highs of 31-34 C are possible in London and region with 32-36 C in France and Belgium (with weak cooling near some coasts but even the beach towns are likely to be in the high 20s). there will also be one or two thunderstorms possible at times especially in western Britain mid-week.


Forecasts for North America

Little change from yesterday with hot, humid conditions prevalent in the east, some areas of heavy rain or thunderstorms inland southeast ... warm and dry in central states, widespread showers and thunderstorms northern plains states and eastern Canadian prairies. Warm and dry west coast, sunny and hot in southwest with isolated monsoonal thunderstorms developing.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny and pleasantly dry with highs near 24 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 8 July, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some patchy morning cloud again, then mostly sunny and very warm, or even hot in some inland sections, highs generally 25-28 C and could touch 29 or even 30 C in a few spots, but 23-26 C in sea breeze zones including Dublin and 17-20 C across some outer coastal headlands. Light winds but sea breezes will reach 20-30 km/hr in various onshore directions. Slight risk of isolated thunderstorms more likely if they happen at all in the inland southwest and parts of the north and northwest. There will be a tendency for the very warm conditions to extend more effectively into western coastal regions due to the slight east wind gradient but that could be countered at times by sea breezes.

TONIGHT ... From now on, this very warm spell is likely to feature oppressively warm nights with some slight cooling in a few rural locations towards dawn, a few places could register lows of 12-14 C but many urban areas will stay around 16-19 C.

TUESDAY ... Hazy sunshine, very warm, isolated thunderstorms possible. Highs mostly around 24-28 C except 17-20 C on outer coasts in sea breezes with some fog, mist or low cloud possible near some coasts.

WEDNESDAY ... Little change except that east coast sea breezes may be a little stronger, resulting in some cooling in parts of inland Leinster. Otherwise, highs about 23-27 C and risk of isolated thunderstorms. East Ulster and north Leinster are favoured given the fact that a very weak frontal boundary may become present to the east of Ireland (but it would likely then dissolve on Thursday, the front that is, not Ireland ).

OUTLOOK ... The very warm (possibly hot to some) spell will continue with little change until near the end of next weekend. Following that, it could turn a few degrees cooler with fresher westerly breezes and highs 20-22 C but then would be likely to start warming up again a few days after that. This is still the outlook after reviewing the latest charts, and frankly even the slight cooling trend is questionable at the time scale involved.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine, very warm to hot inland west and south with highs 26-31 C. Today may feature more extensive fog or low cloud near some coasts especially North Sea, and it will be generally cooler in eastern England in sea breezes, 15-19 C outer coasts and 20-24 C some distance inland. One or two thunderstorms possible again in parts of inland northwest to west Midlands.

TONIGHT ... Clear but hazy, quite warm. Lows 14-18 C for most, near 10 C in a few valleys under clear skies, fog patches likely.

OUTLOOK ... Pretty much the same story as for Ireland with a lot of warm sunshine ahead and even Scotland should be included at times, with an interruption in the heat possible in most of Scotland and parts of eastern towards central England mid-week as cooler air briefly pushes south and some distance west from the North Sea (inland highs 18-22 C in this cooler air mass, coastal 14-17 C) but the warmest temperatures in Britain (possibly near 30 to 32 C) will be in the south central, inland southeast, Midlands and south Wales, trending to about 25-28 C elsewhere except for that mid-week cooler interlude. An overall peak of this hot spell is likely to start today but renew itself in spells as late as the weekend of 13th-14th in southeast England, and eventually highs of 31-34 C are possible in London and region with 32-36 C in France and Belgium (with weak cooling near some coasts but even the beach towns are likely to be in the high 20s). there will also be one or two thunderstorms possible at times especially in western Britain mid-week.


Forecasts for North America

A rather simple picture given the large land mass, the eastern two thirds hot and humid with heavy storms developing around the margins of the tropical air in the Great Lakes region and also within the hot humid air mass in parts of the southeast states. Hot and dry for most of the southwest, warm and dry on the west coast, but a weak southward push of cooler air in western Canada inland has resulted in potential for an outbreak of heavy rain in Alberta as east winds hit the foothills of the Rockies. Tropical Storm Chantal has formed north of Venezuela and is headed for a brush with the Windward Islands then Haiti and eventually the Bahamas by the weekend according to the model consensus, but will remain a fairly weak tropical storm if this guidance is true.

My local weather was sunny and dry again, with storm clouds visible about 20 to 30 km north of the city over the Coast Range, but these stayed put over the mountains and dissipated recently.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 9 July, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine, very warm, isolated showers or thunderstorms possible in parts of the southwest and north. Highs mostly around 24-28 C but could reach 29-30 C again in a few locations, but closer to 22 C near the sea and 17-20 C on some outer headlands in sea breezes with some fog, mist or low cloud possible although not expected to be widespread.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy and warm with lows 15-18 C for most, oppressively warm as temperatures could stay above 20 C until past midnight.

WEDNESDAY ... Little change except that east coast sea breezes may be a little stronger, resulting in some cooling in parts of inland Leinster. Otherwise, highs about 23-27 C and possibly a higher risk of isolated thunderstorms. East Ulster and north Leinster are favoured given the fact that a very weak frontal boundary may become present to the east of Ireland (but it would likely then dissolve on Thursday, the front that is, not Ireland ).

THURSDAY to SATURDAY ... Continued mostly sunny and very warm although some cooling in the north on Saturday. Highs generally 24-27 C, with the usual slight reductions in sea breezes, but falling to about 22-25 C Saturday except 17-21 C in most of Ulster. Winds continuing light and variable then trending to moderate westerly breezes in the north by Saturday. There will continue to be a very slight risk of isolated showers or thunderstorms.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy and somewhat cooler in all regions, isolated showers possible, but sunny intervals also ... highs about 21-24 C south, 16-19 C north.

OUTLOOK ... It may not get much cooler than the figures quoted for Sunday for the bulk of the following week and could in fact get slightly warmer again at times, but a more substantial warming trend towards a second warm spell or heat wave might develop towards the end of the second week in the forecast period (that is around the 19th-20th) with another round of higher twenties possible before the end of July.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly cloudy at first, some longer intervals of sunshine developing but a higher risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms in west-central regions along a weak front that may develop north-south in southern Scotland and most of England, separating the very warm air in the west (highs 26-29 C) from cooler air off the North Sea in the east (highs 21-24 C and closer to 17 near the coasts).

TONIGHT ... Clear but hazy, quite warm. Lows 14-18 C for most, near 10 C in some eastern regions and in a few valleys elsewhere under clear skies, fog patches likely. Any showers should dissipate during the evening.

OUTLOOK ... The east-west divide is likely to sharpen somewhat on Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms in some central and southern regions, highs in west 24-28 C, but in the east, inland highs 18-22 C in the cooler air mass, and coastal 14-17 C. Later in the week it will tend to warm up more extensively once again as winds become more westerly than before, and the hottest temperatures will now likely be in eastern counties and in particular the London region where 30 to 32 C will be possible, trending to about 25-28 C elsewhere except for that mid-week cooler interlude. An overall peak of this hot spell is likely to start today but renew itself in spells as late as the weekend of 13th-14th in southeast England, with 32-36 C possible most of this week in France and Belgium (with weak cooling near some coasts but even the beach towns are likely to be in the mid to high 20s.

Forecasts for North America

Heavy rainfalls continue to move through the lower Great Lakes and will edge closer to the east coast through the inland northeast states today. Hot and humid over large portions of the eastern and central U.S. with scattered outbreaks of thunderstorms. Somewhat cooler than recent days in most of western Canada, trending to warm and dry on the west coast and hot and dry in the southwest U.S. ... Tropical storm Chantal will continue to move steadily west to northwest passing near Barbados today and into the eastern Caribbean to threaten Haiti by Thursday as a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane, then into the Bahamas by the weekend as a weakened tropical storm with 70-90 km/hr winds predicted at this point.

My local weather on Monday was ideal, sunny and very dry with highs near 22.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 10 July, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: The crescent new moon may be spotted on the western horizon after sunset below bright Venus, but their closest approach will only be seven degrees, a fairly large separation. The moon will be easier to find Thursday evening as it gains altitude after sunset.

TODAY ... Another mainly sunny and very warm day, except that east coast sea breezes may be a little stronger, resulting in some cooling in parts of inland Leinster. Otherwise, highs about 24-28 C (locally near 30 C inland west) and possibly a higher risk of isolated thunderstorms. East and central Ulster and inland north Leinster, northeast Connacht are favoured for any brief shower or storm activity, chances are about 30 per cent. Some much cooler foggy conditions are again possible in outer north coast locations.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, hazy, very warm and oppressive with lows about 14-18 C.

THURSDAY ... Hazy sunshine for most, very warm to hot, east coast sea breezes weaker again, somewhat stronger on west coast, so core of heat likely to shift more towards eastern counties. Highs 24-28 C with a few locations closer to 30 degrees. Slight risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm.

FRIDAY ... Hazy sunshine, very warm or hot, some cooling likely in parts of Connacht and Ulster and slight risk of showers or thunderstorms in north generally, core of heat now likely to be across south and east, highs 25-29 C.

SATURDAY ... The south and east are likely to remain quite warm with some sunny intervals, risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm, and highs 24-28 C. The north will turn a little cooler in moderate westerly breezes, isolated showers, and highs 17-22 C.

SUNDAY ... The very warm spell should break down gradually in the north with the risk of showers, or even a thunderstorm, but some dry spells also, highs about 18-22 C. The warmth could hold on for most of Sunday in central and southern counties with isolated showers developing, some sunshine also, and highs 23-27 C.

OUTLOOK ... Eventually highs will return to more normal values around Monday and Tuesday (19-22 C in south) and most of the following week will be more comfortable and largely dry, but then it could in fact get slightly warmer again at times, with a more substantial warming trend towards a second warm spell or heat wave towards the end of the second week in the forecast period (that is around the 19th-20th) with another round of higher twenties possible before the end of July. Some guidance is now suggesting quite a strong heat wave at that time, but it's a bit too far out to be very definitive (and it is the GFS model).


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Very warm mainly to west of a line running north-south down the centre of Britain, as cooler air from North Sea floods into eastern regions. Highs therefore 25-29 C in west, 21-24 C east although 17-20 C closer to North Sea coasts. One or two heavy thunderstorms could develop near this frontal boundary.

OUTLOOK ... Generally similar to Ireland as this east-west divide washes out with the repositioning of the high overnight and Thursday. The southeast could become hotter than previous days towards Friday and Saturday.

Forecasts for North America

Another round of heavy storms is heading for the Great Lakes and inland northeast to add a renewed flood risk in places such as Toronto that have seen excessive rains recently. Hot and humid ahead of this front for most of the eastern states, near normal conditions in central regions, widespread monsoonal thunderstorms in the desert southwest region. Hot and dry in parts of the west. T.S. Chantal is now heading for Haiti and will reach there on Thursday morning. After that it will spread heavy rains into the Bahamas and then Florida, Georgia and South Carolina over the weekend and early next week.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and warm with highs near 25 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 11 July, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine for most, very warm to hot, east coast sea breezes weaker again, but will become somewhat stronger on west coast, so that the core of today's heat is likely to shift more towards eastern counties. Highs 24-28 C with a few locations closer to 30 degrees. Slight risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm inland north. Highs may drop to 20-23 C in some parts of west and remain 15-18 C in far north. Everything depends on how far inland the marine layer of cool, foggy air can advance, then near its inland margins it becomes clear and just a little cooler than the heated inland air mass.

TONIGHT ... Another quite warm and muggy night ahead, lows 14-18 C for most, 11-13 C in some areas cooled by sea breezes during the day, but foggy in some cases there.

FRIDAY ... Hazy sunshine, very warm or hot, some cooling likely in parts of Connacht and Ulster and slight risk of showers or thunderstorms in north generally, core of heat now likely to be across south and east, highs 25-29 C.

SATURDAY ... The south and east are likely to remain quite warm with some sunny intervals, risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm, and highs 24-28 C. The north will turn a little cooler in moderate westerly breezes, isolated showers, and highs 17-22 C.

SUNDAY ... The very warm spell should break down gradually in the north with the risk of showers, or even a thunderstorm, but some dry spells also, highs about 18-22 C. The warmth seems likely to continue in central and southern counties with isolated showers developing, some sunshine also, and highs 23-27 C.

OUTLOOK ... Eventually highs will return closer to normal values around Monday and Tuesday but may still remain as high as 20-24 C in south, 16-20 C in north ... the models have been slowly drifting towards a more rapid return of very warm to hot weather later in the week, with highs back to about 23-27 C in many areas later next week. The prospects beyond that are obviously uncertain with continued heat possible, or another brief interruption. This is starting to look more and more like a prolonged warm spell where just a few days here and there remain closer to normal. The pattern also looks rather dry in general with just limited opportunities for isolated showers or brief rainfall events.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine, warmer conditions spreading back to east although some coastal regions still cooler, highs generally 24-28 C but 20-24 C east.

OUTLOOK ... Generally similar to Ireland as this east-west divide washes out with the repositioning of the high overnight and Thursday. The southeast could become hotter than previous days towards Friday and Saturday. Scotland will become cooler somewhat faster over the weekend with highs falling off to 15-18 C in many places. There will be brief and rather isolated periods of rainfall or light showers mainly in northern England and southern Scotland associated with weak fronts drifting south but then stalling.

Forecasts for North America

Heavy showers and thunderstorms edging closer to the large cities on the east coast as it clears slowly in the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Hot and humid in the east, widespread heavy showers developing in the southeast. Chantal has fallen below tropical storm status but continues to spread rain towards the Bahamas with gusty east winds in what is now a tropical wave system. The central plains states are warming up to the mid to high 30s ahead of a strong frontal system that will be largely dry until it reaches the Gulf moisture flow tomorrow and Saturday. Turning cooler on the west coast as a second front develops in B.C. and drifts southeast.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and breezy with increasing cloud this evening, somewhat cooler during the day with highs near 22 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 12 July, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine and very warm, except for some sea fog drifting inland in parts of west and north (this may come and go leading to variable conditions near the coasts). Highs generally 24-28 C but closer to 20 C in sea breeze zones. Slight risk of an afternoon or evening shower and isolated thunderstorm in Ulster, east is more favoured and timing could be towards midnight (see tonight forecast).

TONIGHT ... Risk of a shower or isolated thunderstorm mainly in east Ulster but possibly extending into north Leinster. Otherwise clear with some coastal low cloud and fog mainly north of mid-Clare and likely to be sporadic. Lows about 12-15 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals returning after some cloudy skies in a few places for part of the morning, and just slightly fresher although highs still well into the mid-20s to about 28 C, with the usual exceptions of west and north coast sea breezes. The risk of showers will likely dissipate in the early morning as high pressure builds back into Ireland from the west and the weak disturbance moves off into northern England.

SUNDAY ... Sunny and warm, lower humidity levels may create a slightly fresher feel with morning lows 9-13 C for most, highs 24-27 C. Sea breezes likely to be rather weak and confined to some outer coastal headlands but weak onshore flow could drop temperatures to about 21-22 C in places with a haze or elevated sea fog. It should be stressed that sunburn is more dependent on the strength of the sunshine than the temperature and is often faster to strike near coastlines due to reflection of the sun off sand and water. It should also be mentioned that sunburn does not cease in higher overcast that dims the sun (in fact even in cloudy summer weather you can get a slight burn in an hour or two outdoors sometimes, unless cloud cover is low and dense -- low and dense by the way is the proposed title of my memoirs).

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Continued sunny and very warm, low humidity levels should make this just a bit less oppressive for some, sea breezes rather fresh again including the Dublin region so it may be a few degrees cooler than the weekend for some on account of increased sea breeze activity, but inland, continuing very warm near 26-27 C at least, morning lows 10-13 C.

OUTLOOK ... The models were flirting with a very strong heat wave set-up developing later in the week, now they seem to have backed off by about 2-3 degrees to conditions fairly similar to the present spell with highs continuing in the mid to high 20s. That sort of slight change could easily reverse itself a couple of times before we get clarity but the general theme continues to be very warm and dry. There are vague indications that I don't consider especially reliable that much cooler weather could try to move south near the end of July. Not saying this can't happen or won't happen, but just not that plausible yet given the longevity of the blocking and the climatological frequency of heat waves building rather than dissipating in late July. Something to monitor anyway (from the beach chair).


Forecasts for Britain

Poor old Britain, stuck in the chill while Ireland basks in summery heat ... well it's not quite that bad but the eastern half of England has had two rather cool days thanks to the energetic (some would say muscular) North Sea while the western half stays almost as warm as Ireland (sounds more like a winter pattern doesn't it?) ... this situation should gradually equalize over the weekend and the higher southeastern temperatures may remain through early next week, as the peak of any heat in eastern England is likely to come around Sunday to Tuesday (28-31 C) but then in more easterly breezes, it could be back into the low 20s with considerable cloud there, while it stays sunny and rather warm in the west throughout the week, with the exception of some sea breezes from Cardigan Bay and near the southwest coast.


Forecasts for North America

If you're reading this for the first time hoping I made another lame joke here too, well sorry I didn't. Mostly cloudy with widespread heavy rain in the southeast as remnants of Chantal start to interact with an already present frontal boundary. Isolated but locally heavy thunderstorms in the northeast U.S. Highs generally in the range 29-33 C in eastern states and 33-37 C central states. A weak system is moving out of the central Rockies and is producing some showers and a few thunderstorms in Wyoming and Colorado. The west coast is fairly pleasant and dry except for a very weak frontal system drifting south into border regions (BC-WA) and highs in this region are about 23-26 C.

My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy and fresher than recent days with a trace of rain in the early morning, the first we've seen in two weeks. The high was about 22 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 13 July, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine may prevail in some parts of the east and south but rather extensive cloud cover elsewhere could take part of the morning to dissipate, and in the case of the northwest coast it may turn into a somewhat foggy and drizzly mid-day until sunshine develops later. Otherwise I think most places will become sunny at some point, and there is just a slight chance of one or two showers, possibly a brief thundershower, developing over the inland south and east this afternoon. Rainfall amounts would likely be no more than 1-3 mm in the few places that do see any rain. With the sunshine, highs will return to the 25-28 C range mainly south and southeast, 22-25 C west and east-central, 17-20 C northwest and most of Ulster (to 22 C inland).

TONIGHT ... Some coastal low cloud or fog, drizzle possible, otherwise clear and just slightly fresher feeling than previous nights with lows 9-13 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny and warm, lower humidity levels may create a slightly fresher feel with morning lows 9-13 C for most, highs 24-27 C. Sea breezes likely to be rather weak and confined to some outer coastal headlands but weak onshore flow could drop temperatures to about 21-22 C in places with a haze or elevated sea fog. It should be stressed that sunburn is more dependent on the strength of the sunshine than the temperature and is often faster to strike near coastlines due to reflection of the sun off sand and water.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Continued sunny and very warm, low humidity levels should make this just a bit less oppressive for some, sea breezes rather fresh again including the Dublin region so it may be a few degrees cooler than the weekend for some on account of increased sea breeze activity, but inland, continuing very warm near 26-27 C at least, morning lows 10-13 C. Some low cloud and drizzle could strike outer west and north coast at times and highs there would be closer to 18 C.

OUTLOOK ... The trend since I discussed this yesterday has more or less reverted to the stronger warming and the maps appear to lock in the pattern which makes me quite suspicious of any large-scale breakdowns towards the two week time frame ... it seems rather likely that heat and drought will tend to intensify and highs could average 27-30 C in many areas for the second half of the week and well into the next week also, with some potential for a few readings of 31-32 C (at official weather stations, we have been hearing about readings like that from personal weather stations already). Another possible slight change long-term will be more haze from what seems inevitable, scattered fires in the inland south and possibly central counties. With more of a southeast drift to the breezes later in the week, the west coast will return to the warmer readings enjoyed there earlier this past week but the east coast will only have very weak sea breezes. It should be noted that the Irish Sea is rapidly warming and readings of 17-18 C near shore will become common. This will also weaken sea breezes in the south and east.


Forecasts for Britain

The south will now warm up further to reach 28-31 C today and most days for the foreseeable future. Cloud and a few patches of local drizzle will cover much of northern England and parts of Scotland today with the sun breaking through later, highs 21-24 C. Weak sea breezes from the Irish Sea and for a change also from the North Sea (rather than mesoscale cooling) will temper the warmer readings by 2-4 C. The pattern will become increasingly similar to the Ireland forecast now although one or two days later next week could revert to the east-west divide concept as cooler air will be trying to work west at times from Denmark and Germany, possibly making it to far eastern England a few times in the next two weeks. Otherwise, a hot dry pattern will lock in there as well as in most parts of France where a stronger easterly flow will guarantee warmth reaching their Atlantic coast most days.


Forecasts for North America

Northwest Canada and Alaska are rarely mentioned in our forecasts, but they have been particularly cool the last two days, highs of only 12-14 C were reported in many areas well inland from the Arctic Ocean where that might be near normal in July, and in regions where the average high is 23-25 C. This cooler air is pushing south into BC and Alberta but losing its extreme chill as it moves south, highs near 21 C can be expected with isolated showers. Further south the inland western U.S. has widespread thundershowers in a frontal zone, and hot, dry air is moving north in the central states until cut off by a front moving east across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Wisconsin later today. The east remains warm and humid with scattered storms and the southeast remains very wet in places with unusually low temperatures although it would feel very warm and muggy to most of us (25-27 C with high humidity, but normal highs are 33-35 C).

My local weather on Friday was pleasant and rather cool in the shade, on a partly cloudy day with towering cumulus off to our north over the local mountains. Highs were around 22 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 14 July, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... It will continue rather warm although widespread cloud may be slow to break in some regions, where the sun does get through during the mid-day and afternoon hours, highs of 23-27 C are likely, under more persistent cloud about 21-23 C. Somewhat limited sea breezes will provide further cooling in some places (near 18 or 19 C).

TONIGHT ... Hazy, some places rather cloudy, risk of drizzle near outer west and north coasts, lows 9-13 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Continued sunny and very warm, low humidity levels should make this just a bit less oppressive for some, sea breezes rather fresh again including the Dublin region so it may be a few degrees cooler than yesterday for most on account of increased sea breeze activity, but inland, continuing very warm near 26-27 C at least, with morning lows 10-13 C. Some low cloud and drizzle could strike outer west and north coast at times and highs there would be closer to 18 C.

WEDNESDAY 17th to TUESDAY 23rd ... This period looks generally hot and dry again, with the somewhat more prevalent cloud of the next few days likely to decrease mid-week allowing for stronger heating to return (throughout, there is no real change in air mass, just a case of how much this air mass can warm up under different cloud regimes) ... highs will be edging back up into the high 20s to near 30 C inland and weak sea breezes from the increasingly warm seas will provide a few degrees of cooling around all coasts at times but the west coast may be somewhat less prone due to a weak southeast gradient over the heated land. The heat may even extend beyond the 24th for several days.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... If there were to be an interruption to this warm spell more significant than today or tomorrow, that could come around the end of the month, but the large-scale indicators and climatology both suggest that we are probably "locking in" to a very warm and generally settled pattern, that could slowly evolve into something more volatile later in August. A prolonged warm, dry spell is possible too. My research suggests that this warmth could last into early September with few interruptions and then a much more "westerly" and showery sort of regime could develop.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will remain very warm to hot in many parts of the south with some sunshine getting through patchy higher cloud. Highs 28-32 C. Central and northern regions will probably turn a bit warmer than yesterday as cloud will tend to fragment allowing the somewhat cooler air present there to warm up to around 24-26 C inland and 20 C near coasts due to sea breezes.

The rest of the forecast will be very similar to Ireland with a prolonged spell of very warm to hot and dry weather ahead, some brief cooling near east coast at times.

Forecasts for North America

Western Canada remains generally rather cool as a front drifts south towards the U.S. border, showers and thunderstorms are developing for parts of southern B.C. and south-central Alberta today, highs near 22 C ahead of this and 16 C after it passes. A stronger front now runs from North Dakota to western Nebraska with heavy or severe storms developing along it. Hot and dry conditions continue to the south over the central plains states and also in the desert southwest, while more storms move through Utah and Colorado.

The eastern half of the continent is mainly very warm and humid, with showers or heavy rain in the southeast.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny with a few clouds, a fresh breeze and highs near 23 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 15 July, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some sunshine will develop soon in east and south, but cloud looks rather stubborn for the morning hours in central, western and northern regions. Some sunshine is likely to develop there later except for a few locations close to the northwest coast. Highs will obviously depend on sunshine but could reach 24-27 C in places where it clears up, 21-24 C more likely under more persistent cloud, and 18-20 C outer coasts where a bit of drizzle or fog is possible.

TONIGHT ... Hazy and becoming foggy again in places, drizzle near coasts, lows about 13 C.

TUESDAY ... Expect a rather similar day to today although perhaps with less cloud to start in some regions and a faster tendency to clear, although there will continue to be greater chance of cloud in west and north, warm again with highs 24-27 C for most, 21-24 C west and north.

WEDNESDAY 17th to TUESDAY 23rd ... Little change from yesterday's outlook ... This period looks generally hot and dry again, with the somewhat more prevalent cloud of the next few days likely to decrease mid-week allowing for stronger heating to return ... highs will be edging back up into the high 20s to near 30 C inland and weak sea breezes from the increasingly warm seas will provide a few degrees of cooling around all coasts at times but the west coast may become somewhat less prone due to a weak southeast gradient over the heated land. Saturday could see some showers developing from a weak disturbance drifting past the west coast. The heat may even extend beyond the 24th for several days, but some models continue to "chop and change" the trend beyond the 23rd and today's output brings back some suggestions of a faster (probably temporary if it happens at all) cooling episode that may involve an active cold front during the mid-week period of next week. At the same time at this time the European model is trending more towards a locked in warm spell, which is my own expectation from various indications.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will continue very warm to hot in many parts of the south with mostly sunny conditions and a few patches of higher cloud with highs 26-30 C. Central and northern regions will be cloudier but with some sunshine and patchy coastal drizzle this morning, sunny intervals by afternoon, highs about 22-24 C trending to high teens western and northern Scotland.

The rest of the forecast will be very similar to Ireland with a prolonged spell of very warm to hot and dry weather ahead, some brief cooling near east coast at times.

Forecasts for North America

The general trend in the east, Midwest, Ohio valley and Mississippi valley regions is towards increasingly hot weather with highs this week generally soaring into the 30s, together with high humidity. Humidex values could top 45 in some parts. Thunderstorms will be generally confined to weak fronts across the upper Midwest border regions and upper Great Lakes but will sometimes appear as far south as Chicago to Toronto. Areas of heavy rain or severe storms in Texas and Oklahoma will tend to repeat daily with a tendency to reorganize more to the northwest as features in the upper atmosphere drift west during the week. Hot, dry weather in most of the southwest will interact with much cooler Pacific air seeping into the far west to set off thunderstorms in states around Nevada, Utah and Idaho. Another frontal band in western Canada will lose intensity today and the weather there will be generally partly cloudy to sunny and near normal in temperatures with isolated thunderstorms.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny, with highs about 24 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 16 July, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: Tonight, Saturn will be visible three degrees north of the half-moon. I've just been out to see bright star Spica very close to the Moon, you may have seen this earlier.The Moon moved in front of Spica as seen from parts of the southern hemisphere, around 0300-0500 UT.

TODAY ... Once again, rather extensive cloud covers most regions this morning but it should begin to break up more readily than yesterday to give hazy sunshine and highs 23-26 C inland, 20-23 C east and south coasts. Some parts of the far north and possibly outer west coast may stay under more persistent cloud with highs 18-20 C but even there some brighter intervals can be expected. Winds will generally be light southeast to south but could be a bit stronger where that direction represents an onshore sea breeze.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy but becoming misty or foggy with slight chance of patchy drizzle near north and west coasts, warm with lows 14-17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Hazy sunshine more widespread, some cloudy intervals, very warm. Highs inland 24-27 C, near east and south coasts 21-24 C.

THURSDAY ... Hazy sunshine and very warm, lows 13-16 C, highs 25-28 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny and very warm to hot for some, highs 27-30 C inland, about 22-25 near east and south coasts and parts of north.

SATURDAY ... Mostly sunny and very warm to hot, highs 27-31 C inland, about 22-26 near east and south coasts, but risk of a few showers or thunderstorms in west. These will tend to stay in Atlantic coastal regions then should die out by evening.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, very warm to hot, isolated showers possible, highs 26-30 C inland, 23-26 C east and south coasts.

OUTLOOK ... This hot spell could persist well into the following week, we're seeing the usual tell-tale signs of persistence of a blocking pattern, namely, the models are continually backtracking by about one day and keeping an alleged breakdown ten or eleven days into the future. Sooner or later the spell will be interrupted but even on these "breakdown" charts there are usually signs of a rebuilding of warmer weather. It should be noted that the GFS run this morning introduces cooler air around Friday 26th with widespread showers and thunderstorms, but that's just a bit of idle speculation given the overall resistance of this warm spell to major breakdowns so far.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will be rather cloudy in eastern England at least for the morning hours, and one or two isolated showers could develop, otherwise, sunny intervals and continued very warm to hot for most in southern and central England, most of Wales, highs 26-30 C but slightly cooler near coasts ... variable cloud and rather warm in the north too, highs 23-27 C but cooler due to sea breezes in western and northern Scotland (16-21 C).

The outlook is similar to Ireland, a week to ten days of hot weather ahead in most regions, some highs could reach 30-33 C in parts of southern England and even into Lancs and west Midlands.

Forecasts for North America

Heat wave conditions will intensify over the eastern U.S., lower Great Lakes, Midwest and central states with just a few scattered storms, highs 32-37 C. More widespread storms likely in the southern plains and parts of Texas. Hot and dry in the southwest, also warming up towards 30 C inland British Columbia. Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered across parts of the northern plains and Canadian prairies.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and very warm, high near 26 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 17 July, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Morning cloud mainly over eastern regions now should gradually give way to hazy sunshine which already prevails in the west ... by afternoon, generally sunny with some cloudy intervals, very warm inland 24-27 C, more moderate near east and south coasts 21-24 C. Outer west and north coast could have cooling sea breezes but a weak southeast flow will keep those very close to the coastlines. Some fog could develop mostly over offshore waters.

TONIGHT ... Extensive mist or fog and close (humid), rather warm with lows about 13-16 C.

THURSDAY ... Hazy sunshine becoming widespread after any morning cloud burns off, becoming even warmer, highs 25-28 C for most, 22-25 C near some coasts.

FRIDAY ... Sunny and very warm to hot for some, highs 27-30 C inland, about 22-25 near east and south coasts and parts of north.

SATURDAY ... Mostly sunny and very warm to hot, highs 27-31 C inland, about 22-26 near east and south coasts, but risk of a few showers or thunderstorms in west. These will tend to stay in Atlantic coastal regions then should die out by evening.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, very warm to hot, isolated showers possible, highs 26-32 C inland, 23-26 C east and south coasts.

OUTLOOK ... Much of next week is likely to produce further hot (26-31 C), rather humid and potentially thundery weather, with thunderstorms becoming a little more widespread towards mid-week, although the ongoing drought won't break in many locations, as we could perhaps expect 20-40 per cent coverage of these storms and some instances where rainfalls are not very significant from them. The inland south and west appear favoured for this activity. Towards the end of next week a slightly cooler pattern is indicated with some showers but a rather dry regime with temperatures falling back to the low 20s.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will be mostly sunny, hazy and very warm in most regions, highs generally 24-29 C, with weak incursions of cooler temperatures near the east coast.

The outlook is similar to Ireland, a week to ten days of hot weather ahead in most regions, some highs could reach 31-34 C in parts of southern England and even into Lancs and west Midlands by this weekend and early next week. Isolated thunderstorms will become possible although not very widespread. Very warm conditions will take hold further north too, but it will remain a bit cooler near the North Sea in general. On average, the British Open site should enjoy partly sunny skies, light and rather variable winds, and highs 23-26 C although there could be some mornings with a bit of mist and temperatures closer to 18 C in weak and sporadic sea breezes. Meanwhile, further south, the core of the heat wave will be reached by about Sunday when it could be 34 or even higher in London and region, and 36-40 C in parts of France. Model depictions vary slightly, but all are showing a considerable push of Saharan heat across Spain into southern France and later dispersing over a large part of western Europe in modified form. Tuesday, highs in south-central Algeria were in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid-30s are already present in parts of Spain and southern France. This is the air mass starting to move north but Irish readers take note, the full effects of this will be aimed more at northern France and southeast England, whereas Ireland would be in the less extreme outer edges of the "heat release" with readings likely to peak below the all-time record of 33 to 34 C (but we will be watching this potential).

Forecasts for North America

Hot and humid conditions continue in most of eastern and central North America with highs 34-37 C quite widespread in all the major cities of that region (and most places in between, the Great Lakes provide some local cooling). Weak fronts will continue to set off a few thundershowers, mostly non-severe, near the northern boundary of this hot air mass and also over the southern plains states where a weak upper disturbance is drifting slowly northwest towards eastern Colorado. Hot and dry further west with isolated mountain storms, and a weak push of thundershowers today over the Cascade Mountains in western WA into southwestern BC. The far west remains generally very warm and dry otherwise.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and hot, about 28 C locally but 32 C further inland, and about 23 C at the airport which is closer to the sea.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 18 July, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine becoming widespread after any morning cloud or mist burns off in western counties, then becoming even warmer than recent days, highs 25-28 C for most, 22-25 C near some coasts.

TONIGHT ... Hazy, becoming foggy or misty in places, warm and rather muggy with lows about 15-17 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny and very warm to hot for some, highs 27-30 C inland, about 22-25 near east and south coasts and parts of north.

SATURDAY ... Mostly sunny and very warm to hot, highs 27-31 C inland, about 22-26 near east and south coasts, but risk of a few showers or thunderstorms in west. These will tend to stay in Atlantic coastal regions then should die out by evening.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, very warm to hot, isolated showers possible, highs 26-32 C inland, 23-26 C east and south coasts.

OUTLOOK ... Much of next week is likely to produce further hot (26-31 C), rather humid and potentially thundery weather, with thunderstorms becoming a little more widespread towards mid-week, although the ongoing drought won't break in many locations, as we could perhaps expect 20-40 per cent coverage of these storms and some instances where rainfalls are not very significant from them. The inland south and west appear favoured for this activity. Towards the end of next week and the weekend of 27th-28th a slightly cooler pattern is indicated with some showers but in still a rather dry regime overall with temperatures falling back to the low 20s.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will be mostly sunny, hazy and very warm in most regions, highs generally 25-30 C, with weak incursions of cooler temperatures near the east coast (21-24 C mostly).

The outlook is similar to Ireland, a week to ten days of hot weather ahead in most regions, some highs could reach 31-34 C in parts of southern England and even into Lancs and west Midlands by this weekend and early next week. Isolated thunderstorms will become possible although not very widespread. Very warm conditions will take hold further north too, but it will remain a bit cooler near the North Sea in general. On average, the British Open site should enjoy partly sunny skies, light and rather variable winds, and highs 23-26 C although there could be some mornings with a bit of mist and temperatures closer to 18 C in weak and sporadic sea breezes. Meanwhile, further south, the core of the heat wave will be reached by about Sunday when it could be 34 or even higher in London and region, and 36-40 C in parts of France. This severe heat could then remain in place for almost a week with the only relief being a few isolated thundershowers and weak sea breezes.

Model depictions vary slightly, but all are showing a considerable push of Saharan heat across Spain into southern France and later dispersing over a large part of western Europe in modified form. Irish readers take note, the full effects of this heat from the south will be aimed more at northern France and southeast England, whereas Ireland would be in the less extreme outer edges of the "heat release" with readings likely to peak below the all-time record of 33 to 34 C (but we will be watching this potential).

Forecasts for North America

Very little change with the broiling heat wave continuing across all central and eastern regions, a few outbreaks of heavy thunderstorms in the upper Midwest and central to northern Great Lakes ahead of a frontal wave moving gradually east through the North Dakota-Minnesota region. Highs again today will reach near-record values of 35 to 39 C in many parts of the U.S. and southern Ontario. Western Canada somewhat cooler except on the west coast which is also quite hot under a separate ridge of high pressure just offshore.

My local weather on Wednesday featured a few traces of rain in the early morning hours but then it cleared again and became quite warm although a sea breeze kept most of the urban area below 25 C, to 30 C inland.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 19 July, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny and very warm to hot for some, highs 27-30 C inland, about 22-25 near east and south coasts and parts of north. Rather hazy especially near some coasts, and foggy at times near north coast where a few outer headlands could remain 18-20 C.

TONIGHT ... Hazy, warm. Lows 13-16 C but remaining above 18 C most of the night in most urban areas.

SATURDAY ... Mostly sunny and very warm to hot, highs 27-31 C inland, about 22-26 near east and south coasts, but risk of a few showers or thunderstorms in west. These will tend to stay in Atlantic coastal regions then should die out by evening.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, very warm to hot, isolated showers possible mainly near southwest coast, highs 26-32 C inland, 23-26 C east and south coasts.

OUTLOOK ... Much of next week is likely to produce further hot (26-31 C), rather humid and potentially thundery weather, with thunderstorms becoming a little more widespread towards mid-week, although the ongoing drought won't break in many locations, as we could perhaps expect 20-40 per cent coverage of these storms and some instances where rainfalls are not very significant from them. The inland south and west appear favoured for this activity. Towards the end of next week and the weekend of 27th-28th a slightly cooler pattern is indicated with possibly some more widespread showers and thunderstorms, as temperatures fall back to the low 20s. At that point, there could be some drought relief in a few districts but at this point I would expect rainfalls of about 10-30 mm on average over several days and that won't entirely erase the deficit.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will be once again be mostly sunny, hazy and very warm in most regions, highs generally 26-31 C, with weak incursions of cooler temperatures near the east coast (21-24 C mostly).

The outlook is similar to Ireland, a week to ten days of hot weather ahead in most regions, some highs could reach 31-34 C in parts of southern England and even into Lancs and west Midlands by this weekend and early next week. Isolated thunderstorms will become possible although not very widespread until possibly Tuesday-Wednesday in the southwest and Wednesday to Friday more generally. Very warm conditions will take hold further north too, but it will remain a bit cooler near the North Sea in general. On average, the British Open site should enjoy partly sunny skies, light and rather variable winds, and highs 23-26 C although there could be some mornings with a bit of mist and temperatures closer to 18 C in weak and sporadic sea breezes. Meanwhile, further south, the core of the heat wave will be reached by about Sunday when it could be 34 or even higher in London and region, and 36-40 C in parts of France. This severe heat could then remain in place for almost a week with the only relief being a few isolated thundershowers and weak sea breezes. However, some very heavy storms could develop in western France at times mid-week to near end of the week and it will turn considerably cooler there after about Thursday. The cooling trend in eastern France and the rest of Europe will be rather subtle by comparison.


Forecasts for North America

This should be the last very hot day north of about central Illinois to New York City, as a cold front sweeps south, with some locally intense thunderstorms especially east of Michigan (the front may be dry as it passes Chicago and points west). The heat will continue on Saturday further south then the same front will push through, stalling in southern Virginia to southern Missouri. Regions south of that will warm from the low to mid 30s as the approaching front pushes hot air south that will disperse low cloud and showers over the southeast today. The far west, meanwhile, remains rather warm and dry, but most parts of western Canada are cooling down as a front edges south towards the northern plains states.

My local weather on Thursday was mostly sunny and warm at about 25 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 20 July, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly sunny and very warm to hot, highs 27-31 C inland, although somewhat cooler, about 22-26 C, near east and south coasts with moderate sea breezes developing, and some cloudy intervals with the risk of a few showers or thunderstorms in parts of the west. These will tend to stay in Atlantic coastal regions or inland Connacht, then should die out by evening.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy intervals, warm and humid. Any remaining evening showers in west should die out around midnight. Lows 15-18 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, very warm to hot, isolated showers or thunderstorms, possibly locally intense, mainly in coastal west and inland southwest, highs 26-32 C inland, 23-26 C east and south coasts.

MONDAY ... Very warm and humid with showers or thunderstorms developing more widely in south and west, isolated for north and east ... morning lows 17-20 C and afternoon highs 25-28 C except a bit cooler near coasts. Some risk of severe storms developing later in the day inland south and west.

TUESDAY ... Showers and thunderstorms becoming widespread and moving across east and north where they could become severe in places. Continuing rather warm and humid, morning lows 17-20 C and afternoon highs 23-26 C. Turning noticeably fresher in west Munster during the afternoon and evening.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, much cooler in west and somewhat cooler in east where more sunshine could develop in south to southwest winds of 20-40 km/hr. Lows 12-15 C and highs about 18-23 C. Some heavy or severe storms could develop in a few central locations.

THURSDAY to MONDAY (29th) ... Partly cloudy to overcast and continuing rather cool especially in comparison to current weather pattern, frequent showers and possibly some heavier rain at times. Partial or even complete drought relief can be expected. Highs generally 17-22 C (warmest readings southeast) with morning lows about 8-11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A gradual warming trend is likely to follow around the first few days of August but no indications yet of a return to hot weather, probably if that comes it will be closer to two weeks away.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will start mostly cloudy then become hazy, sunny and very warm in most regions, highs generally 24-29 C, with stronger incursions of cooler temperatures near the east coast than recently (17-21 C mostly). Some low cloud or fog may develop this morning then dissipate mid-day near the North Sea coasts.

OUTLOOK ... Hotter temperatures are likely to return Sunday and Monday with scattered heavy thunderstorms mainly in the southwest, highs 27-32 C. By Tuesday, a strong frontal zone will develop across the inland south and west, moving slowly north and east, setting off heavy to severe thunderstorms in places. Highs 28-33 C ahead of this feature and 21-24 C to its west. The rest of the week will become cooler in stages, although the southeast will remain quite warm to the weekend at 24-27 C. Other regions will be closer to the low 20s or even high teens in Wales and Scotland.


Forecasts for North America

Widespread heavy to severe thunderstorms in the northeast and Ohio valley, hot and humid in these regions and to the south with highs near 34 C. A cooler, fresher air mass is spreading south into the Midwest, Great Lakes and inland northeast states, highs 24-27 C with a few isolated thunderstorms but mostly dry. Near normal July heat in the central states and desert southwest regions. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms inland BC and most of Alberta, warm and dry near the west coast.

My local weather on Friday was sunny and very warm, highs near 26 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 21 July, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Morning cloud or mist should lift by about 0800h then sunny for a while, becoming partly to mostly cloudy, very warm to hot, isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms, possibly locally intense, mainly in coastal west and inland southwest, highs 26-30 C inland, 23-26 C east and south coasts.

TONIGHT ... Further showers or thunderstorms possible mainly over west Munster and Connacht, warm and humid, lows 16-20 C.

MONDAY ... Very warm and humid with showers or thunderstorms developing more widely in south and west, isolated for north and east ... afternoon highs 25-28 C east and north, 22-25 C west and south, although also slightly cooler near east coast. Some risk of severe storms developing later in the day inland south and west.

TUESDAY ... Showers and thunderstorms becoming widespread and moving across east and north where they could become severe in places. Continuing rather warm and humid, morning lows 17-20 C and afternoon highs 23-26 C. Turning noticeably fresher in west Munster during the afternoon and evening.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, much cooler in west and somewhat cooler in east where more sunshine could develop in south to southwest winds of 20-40 km/hr. Lows 12-15 C and highs about 18-23 C. Some heavy or severe storms could develop in a few central locations.

THURSDAY to MONDAY (29th) ... Partly cloudy to overcast and continuing rather cool especially in comparison to current weather pattern, frequent showers and possibly some heavier rain at times. Partial or even complete drought relief can be expected. Highs generally 17-22 C (warmest readings southeast) with morning lows about 8-11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A gradual warming trend is likely to follow around the first few days of August but no indications yet of a return to hot weather, probably if that comes it will be closer to two weeks away.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will again start mostly cloudy then become hazy, sunny and very warm in most regions, highs generally 24-29 C, with yesterday's stronger incursions of cooler temperatures near the east coast somewhat less dramatic (19-24 C mostly for eastern regions). Some isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon in the inland southwest.

OUTLOOK ... Hotter temperatures are likely to return Monday (and for the southeast also on Tuesday) with scattered heavy thunderstorms mainly in the southwest, highs 27-32 C. By Tuesday, a strong frontal zone will develop across the inland south and west, moving slowly north and east, setting off heavy to severe thunderstorms in places. Highs 28-33 C ahead of this feature and 21-24 C to its west. The rest of the week will become cooler in stages, although the southeast will remain quite warm to the weekend at 24-27 C. Other regions will be closer to the low 20s or even high teens in Wales and Scotland.


Forecasts for North America

Generally warm and humid in eastern regions, the extreme heat has moderated and highs are 31-34 C. Thunderstorms have become confined to a frontal zone through the Ohio valley and parts of the mid-Atlantic states. It remains warm and dry in most central regions, hot for parts of the southwest but with widespread "monsoonal" thunderstorms in Arizona bringing some scattered flash flooding.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny and warm with haze from the sea breeze, highs near 24 C.