Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 26 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for widespread persistent light snow and the risk of locally heavier snowfalls (3-7 cm in some places) and the certainty of unseasonable cold, frosts and icy roads at times from later today in north, to mid-week central and south, snowfall most likely in parts of central to north Leinster, Ulster, extending to midlands and south coast. ADVANCE ALERT for risk of wintry precipitation over the Easter weekend period, still assessed as "moderate" or about 50-60 per cent likely as guidance is somewhat split on this outcome ... some of the guidance indicates potentially heavy snowfall inland south Thursday night and Friday.

Discussion: Overnight, persistent light snow has become widespread in the east and south. This may continue in some regions for the rest of the day, at times overnight with the risk of heavier amounts developing either today or more likely tomorrow. The counties most at risk are in central and north Leinster, Wicklow, Wexford, and south coast. Confidence is only moderate in this outlook but don't be surprised if many places see 1-2 cm and some locations (most likely centered on Waterford, Meath, Wicklow) see 3-7 cm amounts each forecast period today, tonight and Wednesday. There may not be "blizzard" conditions but there is some chance of near-blizzard conditions in open country at times. As usual, there may also be large variations near the east coast and especially around the Dublin metropolitan region. Your best forecaster in such variable situations is the person you see in the mirror every morning. Good luck. I will try to give some general indications.

TODAY ... Widespread but in most cases intermittent light snow with the risk of heavier snow in bursts for parts of Leinster, Munster, inland Connacht and east Ulster. Occasional light snow further west with some dry intervals and even a few breaks of sunshine. Generally very cold with significant wind chills in easterlies 30-50 km/hr. Highs about 2-4 C feeling more like -5 C. Greatest risk of somewhat heavier marginally disruptive snowfalls in Meath, Westmeath, Longford, Offaly, Kildare, Laois, parts of Dublin, Wicklow, Wexford, Waterford, Carlow, Kilkenny, Cork as well as much of Ulster, but even in these counties, snowfall rates variable in streamers and due to topography (east side of mountains more likely to see heavy snow). Near-blizzard conditions are possible at times particularly in open country, with blowing and drifting in a few spots. Urban areas may generally see less disruption with settling snow of 1-2 cm. Some snow could mix with hail or graupel. Expect icy or slippery road conditions especially on less travelled routes and at higher elevations. Rather foggy in higher elevations. ... Note that conditions away from areas of snowfall could be quite variable with sunny intervals, light snow, dry cloud alternating but the cold and persistent east wind will be more constant.

TONIGHT ... Snow continuing at times, heavy in a few spots, amounts generally 1-2 cm but possibly 3-5 cm in a few places. Very cold with gusty easterly winds 45-65 km/hr, lows -3 to -1 C (except -5 C isolated rural northwest where clearer skies develop) and wind chills to -8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Little change as some snow streamers become heavier especially for central and north Leinster, southeast Ulster. Outbreaks of light snow becoming heavier in some streamers. Potential for thunder-snow in north Leinster. Amounts in some places generally 2-4 cm but locally 7-12 cm. Slight amounts of snow could fall throughout the country even in the far west although one or two locations will probably escape snow-free. Winds east-northeast 35-55 km/hr adding a chill to highs of only 1-4 C (feeling like -6 C). Some disruption due to drifting snow and icy roads, most likely north-central counties and higher portions of Dublin-Wicklow.

THURSDAY ... This may prove to be a less active day for snowfall but it will remain cold and there could still be some snow here and there, and winds will continue moderately strong, ESE 30-50 km/hr. Morning lows -5 to -2 C as snow early morning turns to flurries. Some sunny intervals by day and highs about 3-7 C, best in Clare and Galway. Risk of sleet or snow by evening inland south.

GOOD FRIDAY ... There is about a 65% chance of wintry precipitation in the south and a high risk of accumulating snow within that general risk, most likely Cork to Limerick and east towards Waterford and Carlow ... winds will increase again to SE 40-60 km/hr and we are going to be on a blizzard watch if this situation comes together as some models suggest it could, with the cold air trapped near the surface and milder Atlantic air over-running it. Sleet or rain could develop on the outer southwest coast but Cork city and most inland regions of Munster would see mainly snow with some mixing of sleet. Further north, less probable snowfall risk, mostly cloudy, cold, raw SE winds, some snow showers near east coast. Lows near -2 C and highs near 3 C at best.

REST of the EASTER WEEKEND ... Details are bound to change with this frontal boundary situation, but the general trend on models is for a break in the precipitation for a time on Saturday, possibly a few sunny intervals, then back into mixed wintry precipitation in the south, snow inland and possibly spreading well to the north. Winds continuing SE to E at 50-70 km/hr and very cold (some guidance suggests slight moderation so we'll say 3-5 C for now, could be colder however).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Mass emigration to warmer climes followed by severe sunburn ... sorry, should be saving that for 1st of April ... more optimistically gradual influx of warmer climes followed by slight suntan. Several days of rain or sleet may intervene before that becomes possible. Keep the faith, this is (I checked) the northern hemisphere.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Continued very cold, outbreaks of snow in east, central regions, some brief sunny intervals in a few places, highs generally near 2 or 3 C but closer to 5 C in the southwest. Winds east 40-70 km/hr. Generally speaking, snowfall amounts 1-3 cm at most, with some local additional 3-6 cm and a little more blowing and drifting of snow already on ground.

TONIGHT ... Widespread snow flurries with heavier falls in some parts of east, central England, lows -5 to -1 C but could drop to -10 C in Scotland well inland.

WEDNESDAY ... Some heavy falls of snow east-central spreading at times across Britain to west coast, strong east winds, very cold. Highs 1-4 C. Snow mixing with hail or sleet at times.

OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland from Thursday onward with the same uncertainty about developments around Easter weekend, although in general it will be even colder in central, northern England and most of Scotland. If skies clear extensively at any point, watch for some record low temperatures below -10 C to be recorded. Heavy snowfalls seem quite possible in the south given the frontal set-up expected.


Forecasts for North America

Snow tapering to flurries in parts of Ohio valley and east coast, otherwise cold and dry in east. Highs generally 10 degrees below normal values in much of North America except southwest which is running near or slightly above. West coast also near normal. Rather dry and bland pattern in general terms, weak fronts moving inland west coast. The main feature continues to be a very strong north-south ridge of arctic high pressure in central regions.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and the high was near 10 C. Give me your address and I'll mail you some.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 27 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for moderate snowfall amounts of 3-7 cm in parts of Leinster and east Ulster this morning, accumulations subject to some melting during the somewhat warmer mid-day hours, but until then some blowing and drifting in open rural areas and icy roads could result. Slight risk of 2-4 cm snowfalls in south Leinster and parts of south coast, inland Connacht, west Ulster. ALERT for severe cold overnight especially inland north and west under partially clear skies, some lows to -5 C. Icy roads in places. Weekend situation uncertain enough that we will suspend the advance alert although keeping some risk in the forecast for sleet and snow mainly inland south.

Astronomy note: Full moon occurs shortly at 0928h at which time the Moon will have set in Ireland, visible from North America (and other places in the western hemisphere). The Moon will certainly appear full tonight and even the following night if visible through breaks in the cloud in Ireland.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, very cold, as some snow streamers become heavier especially for central and north Leinster, southeast Ulster. Outbreaks of light snow becoming heavier in some streamers. Potential for thunder-snow in Dublin region and north Leinster. Amounts in some places generally 2-4 cm but locally 7-12 cm. Some risk of accumulating snows also in south Leinster and near south coast. Slight amounts of snow could fall throughout the country even in the far west although one or two locations will probably escape snow-free. Winds in exposed locations will be ENE 35-55 km/hr adding a chill to highs of only 1-5 C (feeling like -6 C). Some disruption due to drifting snow and icy roads, most likely north-central counties and higher portions of Dublin-Wicklow. There may be a general drying trend later with more frequent sunny intervals.

TONIGHT ... A few snow flurries continuing near east coast but many places becoming partly cloudy to clear and very cold with lows -5 to -2 C and potential for one or two locations to drop to -8 C. Slight risk of an isolated heavier snowfall near east or south coasts.

THURSDAY ... This may prove to be a less active day for snowfall but it will remain cold and there could still be some snow here and there, and winds will continue moderately strong, ESE 30-50 km/hr. A few sunny intervals and highs about 3-7 C, best in Clare and Galway. Risk of sleet or snow by evening inland south.

GOOD FRIDAY ... There is about a 50% chance of wintry precipitation in the south and a high risk of accumulating snow within that general risk, most likely higher inland parts of Cork and Limerick and east towards Waterford and Carlow ... sleet or rain is likely on the outer southwest coast. Winds will increase again to SE 40-60 km/hr and there remains some potential for a more widespread snowfall although the risk seems low, about 20-30 per cent. This outlook may change but further north the skies could be partly cloudy allowing some sunshine particularly in Connacht. Morning lows near -2 C but possibly -5 C inland north, and highs near 3 to 5 C at best.

REST of the EASTER WEEKEND ... Details are bound to change with this frontal boundary situation, but the general trend on models is for a break in the precipitation for a time on Saturday, possibly a few sunny intervals, then back into mixed wintry precipitation in the south, snow inland and possibly spreading some distance to the north, although the risk of any type of precipitation is about 60 to 70 per cent in the south to 20 or 30 per cent in the north. Winds continuing SE to E at 50-70 km/hr and cold with a very slow moderation as highs edge up to about 6-8 C but nights remain frosty. This weekend outlook could easily change to a more unsettled or even stormy scenario if weak fronts gain any traction.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... I have removed the outburst of humour and replaced that with a rather drab outlook of cloud, some rain or sleet at times, and very slow moderation possibly getting back somewhere close to normal (by then 11-13 C) daytime temperatures by about the second week of April.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Some heavy falls of snow east-central spreading at times across Britain to west coast, strong east winds, very cold. Highs 1-4 C. Snow mixing with hail or sleet at times. Somewhat less severe in south especially southwest with highs 5-7 C and mixed wintry showers.

TONIGHT ... Snow easing to flurries, widespread partial clearing and very cold with lows to -7 C over snow cover and otherwise -2 to +1 C in south, near -9 in some parts of Wales and Scotland.

OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland from Thursday onward with the same uncertainty about developments around Easter weekend, although in general it will be even colder in central, northern England and most of Scotland. If skies clear extensively at any point, watch for some record low temperatures below -10 C to be recorded. Heavy snowfalls seem quite possible in the higher inland south given the frontal set-up expected.


Forecasts for North America

A rather bland and dry pattern has developed now, with a relaxation of the cold regime in central regions, although it remains rather cold in the eastern third. Some light sleety showers or flurries in parts of the Great Lakes region, otherwise dry and cool for late March in eastern states and provinces. Milder in central regions and becoming quite warm in a southerly flow inland west. Highs could reach 15 C in valleys of western Canada and Pacific northwest states, trending to 25 C in desert southwest states.

My local weather on Tuesday was pleasantly warm at 13 C with sunshine filtered by high cloud at times. We are now seeing a slow blossoming of spring vegetation in the region but little sign of budding on deciduous trees yet. Saw a robin which is an unusual species for this part of Canada (they are more common in the east).

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 28 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

Discussion: The sea effect streamers should continue to weaken but some further 2-5 cm accumulations seem likely especially from Dublin north and possibly in the southeast also. Tonight should see slight increase again in this activity as a weak trough develops, with north Leinster and east Ulster most at risk of seeing perhaps 3-6 cm new snowfall. Then we get into a very uncertain situation with milder air trying to push this rather stubborn arctic high away, but models are showing very little "over-running" and moisture confined to narrow bands that are supposed to stay south of Ireland almost all the time from Friday to Monday. I must admit that I have only a moderate (if that) level of confidence in this scenario because the disturbance in the central Atlantic seems to be a little more vigorous than that would imply ... so I am going to retain some risk of wintry precipitation throughout the weekend, hopefully that might explain any differences you notice in this forecast when comparing, but at the same time, the cold, dry outcome with slight moderation is certainly the more likely based on available guidance. I just have a rather strong hunch that this guidance may break down as we sometimes see especially in the 3-5 day time frame.

TODAY ... Although this may prove to be a less active day for snowfall, further 2-5 cm accumulations are likely in parts of central and north Leinster, and one or two centimetres could fall in south Leinster and even coastal Munster in weak streamers -- all of this may also melt in any mid-day sunshine but it will remain cold and there could still be some remnant snow flurries here and there ... winds will continue moderately strong, ESE 30-50 km/hr. A few sunny intervals and highs about 3-7 C, best in Clare and Galway.

TONIGHT ... Clouding over in the southwest, clear intervals and very cold most other regions, except for some low cloud and flurries or light snow in parts of Leinster and east Ulster. Snowfall amounts there will be perhaps 3 cm or locally as much as 6 cm, lows near -2 C with the snow and -5 C where clear, with icy roads rather widespread. Lows in west Munster about 0-1 C with risk of sleet especially south Kerry and snow on higher slopes there.

GOOD FRIDAY ... There is about a 40% chance of wintry precipitation in the south and a risk of accumulating snow within that general risk, most likely higher inland parts of Kerry, Cork and west Limerick, less likely now east towards Waterford and Carlow ... sleet or rain is likely on the outer southwest coast. Winds will increase again to SE 40-60 km/hr and there remains some potential for a more widespread snowfall although the risk seems low, 20 per cent or less. This outlook may change but further north the skies could be partly cloudy allowing some sunshine particularly in Connacht and highs of 3 to 5 C at best. There will be further light snowfalls in parts of Leinster and east Ulster, expect at least 1 to 3 cm in a few spots and perhaps a heavier band that we can nowcast from radar. In the expected wind direction north Leinster and east Ulster will tend to be most likely to see heavier snow.

HOLY SATURDAY ... Any wintry precip that does appear on Friday is likely to be pushed back south early in the morning of Saturday with clearing skies and bitter cold returning even to parts of Munster, lows -6 to -2 C. Then the day will be partly cloudy with isolated east coast flurries and a slight risk of snow or sleet later in the day in the southwest. Winds SE 30-50 km/hr will add a chill to highs only 4-7 C (mildest in west).

EASTER SUNDAY into MONDAY ... If there are going to be forecast changes due to model error, this is where you might expect to see them ... the models generally suggest a dry, cold pattern with some variation on how cold, but the weighted average would suggest little warming from this week, lows -5 to -2 and highs 4 to 7 C. Winds are expected to remain SE and could increase in parts of west Munster to 50-70 km/hr, otherwise 35-55 km/hr. I have the feeling that mixed bands of wintry precip may prove a bit more mobile and not stay off to the south as depicted on model charts, so I am going to estimate a 35% chance of sleet or snow especially in the inland south, the north would be more likely to see snow from Irish Sea streamers if at all. Connacht and west Ulster have the best chance of remaining dry. With the mixed bands scenario, snowfalls of 10-15 cm could develop especially anywhere well inland and above 150m but this comes down to valley level in many parts of the midlands so that snow would not be only on hills. A cold rain could push as far north as about Listowel to inland Cork to Waterford if the mixed bands do get moving north, alternatively, there could be just an incursion of snow into the south coast and no other developments. But I do expect changes as we've already seen on some recent model runs.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some are talking about this pattern being locked in for weeks or even months. I tend to almost the opposite concept, that within two or three weeks this could all reverse to a warm pattern. The Y2K type chatter about a broken atmosphere, a dead Atlantic, etc, are heard every time there is a cold spell, but even the depths of the Maunder minimum (17th century cold spell) had warm seasons and months. Blocking in spring can often lead to very warm southeast winds and it won't take much to replace the chill with warmth as much of the continent would quickly become snow-free. Therefore I will hazard the guess that the first half of April will see fairly steady warming with perhaps one slight reverse, then the second half could become quite warm with above normal temperatures at times.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... A few sunny intervals mainly in west, but mostly cloudy with a few snow showers in places, only slight accumulations (1-3 cm mostly). Highs will range from 1 C over snow cover to 5 C in snow-free areas in west and south.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, very cold, lows -8 to -4 C.

OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland from Friday onward with the same uncertainty about developments around Easter weekend, although in general it will be even colder in central, northern England and most of Scotland. If skies clear extensively at any point, watch for some record low temperatures below -10 C to be recorded. Heavy snowfalls seem quite possible in the higher inland south given the frontal set-up expected. Easter Monday could see a snowstorm in parts of the inland southwest.


Forecasts for North America

Little change from yesterday, as systems are not moving. The western half of the continent is generally quite mild with some weak showers or sporadic thundershowers developing in a southerly flow over parts of central OR-WA and s BC. Highs 12-16 C for most regions trending to 22-27 C in the desert southwest. Dry and mild central regions. Scattered light flurries in a cold northwest breeze from near Lake Ontario into north-central New England. Very cold for time of year to the north and east of that weak disturbance, closer to average to the south of it although a touch below normal.

My local weather on Wednesday was very mild with sunshine through high cloud patches, and highs near 14 C. Meanwhile, some astronomy notes: I was out recently and could see the full Moon with a dim lunar halo, and with bright star Spica (looking faint in the lunar glow) about to be occulted around moonset off to the east (left) of the Moon, and Saturn then further off towards the southeast horizon. Jupiter, while still quite bright, is now setting about midnight. Venus is actually behind the Sun today although not quite as it is below the Sun's disk (as seen at mid-day). The planet Uranus is also behind the Sun today.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 29 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and cold, although with some moderation compared to earlier in the week. Some sunny breaks at times more frequent in Connacht and west Ulster. Scattered outbreaks of light sleet or hill snow in the southwest, spits of rain near the southwest coast, but only a slight chance of accumulation. A few snow flurries becoming sleety mid-day near east coast mostly to north of Dublin. Highs 4-7 C, mildest in coastal west. A rather chilly southeast wind at 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals, any light or trace amounts of sleet or snow dissipating, colder again with lows -4 to +2 C, some icy roads likely away from east coast.

HOLY SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy or clearing skies and cold, becoming partly cloudy to overcast east, with isolated flurries and a slight risk of snow or sleet later in the day in the southwest. Winds SE 30-50 km/hr will add a chill to highs only 4-7 C (mildest in west).

EASTER SUNDAY into MONDAY ... For now, the outlook is cold and dry for most, with risk of sleet in the southwest at times. Winds southeast 40-70 km/hr adding a chill to highs around 4-7 C, after morning lows near -1 C or lower in some inland sections.

Continuing to speculate here, that if there are going to be forecast changes due to model error, this is where you might expect to see them. I have the feeling that mixed bands of wintry precip may prove a bit more mobile and not stay off to the south as depicted on model charts, so I am going to estimate a 30% chance of sleet or snow especially in the inland south, the north would be more likely to see snow from Irish Sea streamers if at all. Connacht and west Ulster have the best chance of remaining dry. With the mixed bands scenario, snowfalls of 10-15 cm could develop especially anywhere well inland and above 150m but this comes down to valley level in many parts of the midlands so that snow would not be only on hills. A cold rain could push as far north as about Listowel to inland Cork to Waterford if the mixed bands do get moving north, alternatively, there could be just an incursion of snow into the south coast and no other developments. But I do expect changes as we've already seen on some recent model runs.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The models are now starting to hint at my speculated outcome of a steady and substantial warming trend taking about two weeks to flush out this blocking cold air mass and replace it with a warmer pattern drawing on southern warmth. I really hope this comes to pass more for your sake than mine. The growing season has been largely stalled and some farming interests have suffered a lot from this unseasonable cold and localized heavy snow, so a reversal is certainly much needed to get everything on track for recovery. At some point in the second half of April, then, don't be surprised if there are highs well above normal and possibly even into the lower 20s. But that will take at least two weeks and possibly three to develop. The path towards that may take one backward turn mid-week with a slightly colder push developing but at the same time this does not look very sustained and temperatures should be starting to flirt with 10 C by about next weekend.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... A few sunny intervals, but mostly cloudy for most regions, with a few snow showers turning to sleet in places, only slight accumulations (1-3 cm mostly). Highs will range from 1 C over snow cover (and -2 C in parts of Scotland where it will start from near -10 C this morning) to 5 C in snow-free areas in west and south.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, very cold, lows -8 to -4 C. Cloudier south with risk of sleet in parts of southwest England.

OUTLOOK ... Cold and dry for most this weekend, outbreaks of snow and sleet in southwest, rain near coast. Some risk of a heavier snowfall developing as with the Ireland forecast, but decreasing chances further north. Staying cold most of next week, slow moderation after that.


Forecasts for North America

Continued rather bland weather pattern with colder temperatures in eastern half, mild to warm in the west. Some scattered showers over western interior valleys, and a few flurries or sleety showers in New England.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and warm again with a high close to the daily record (which I notice was set in 1947, hmm) ... that was 18 C but today was about 15 C.

Still, the world is steadily warming, you must believe this or face the wrath.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 30 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy or clearing skies and cold, then becoming partly cloudy to overcast east, with isolated flurries or drizzle near the north Leinster and east Ulster coasts, and a slight risk of snow or sleet by tonight in the southwest. Winds SE 30-50 km/hr will add a chill to highs only 4-7 C (mildest in west).

TONIGHT ... Cloudy south and west, some clear intervals inland north and east, coldest in those regions with lows -4 to -1 C. Somewhat milder in southwest with drizzle near the coast by morning, slight risk of sleet or snow inland west Munster especially on hills in Kerry. Some coastal drizzle or snow grains near east Ulster coasts. Otherwise, a dry night in most places.

EASTER SUNDAY into MONDAY ... Dry and cold in most regions, continued rather cloudy with a few sunny breaks most likely inland north and west. Moderate southeast winds becoming stronger during Easter Sunday, 40-70 km/hr. Highs both days about 5-8 C mildest in the southwest. Some intermittent light rain could move into west Munster at times on Sunday, and may still be present on the outer coast until Monday morning, and that could change at times to sleet or wet snow in some inland areas about as far north and east as mid-Clare to the Cork-Waterford borders, but amounts appear likely to be slight (2-4 mm equivalent). Monday will have somewhat more sunshine in places, and the temperatures will remain in the same range.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY, FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The pattern will only change slowly and winds will back around to more of a northeast to northerly direction; there could be some weak streamers at some point but the overall pattern looks dry well into the following weekend and nights will remain very chilly but days are probably going to start to feel a bit more spring-like, if only because the sun is getting a bit stronger each day. Highs will be in the 5-8 C range but could edge up closer to 10 C in the west by the end of the week and the following weekend. Beyond that, there could be further warming in more of a southwesterly flow that will finally break down this long-standing blocking or at least turn it to the advantage of those who want warmth. That might also come with some showers at times from weak systems, but the pattern looks relatively dry.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cold and dry with some sunny intervals, extensive cloud in east with isolated sleety showers or flurries mainly in northeast England and some parts of southeast England (Kent mostly). Highs about 5-7 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals except for extensive cloud south, rain or sleet in parts of the southwest, lows -5 to -2 C for most, 1-3 C southwest.

OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland, cold and dry in most places, rain or sleet in south at times. Continued very cold nights inland north, Wales, Scotland.


Forecasts for North America

A warmer air mass is trying to make some eastward progress from the central plains states and rain with some thunderstorms embedded is moving into the developing frontal system early today. This will become rather heavy later in parts of Missouri, Arkansas and Tennessee. Thunderstorms will also hit parts of east Texas, Louisiana and southern Arkansas. Warm and humid to the south of these fronts, highs to 27 C there. Except in parts of far eastern Canada, the eastern states and provinces will be milder than recent days with highs reaching 14 C today and 17 C on Sunday. This is also true for the Midwest except that on Sunday the mild air will be rapidly replaced by a fresh arctic surge that is moving south across the prairies of western Canada this weekend. Meanwhile, it has turned very warm and mostly dry in the far west with highs 17-22 C in many places as far north as central B.C.

My local weather on Friday was sunny and mild with a high near 16 C.

Best wishes to you for a happy Easter. I will likely post a forecast on Sunday morning but it may just be a brief update given this weather pattern.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 30 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy or clearing skies and cold, then becoming partly cloudy to overcast east, with isolated flurries or drizzle near the north Leinster and east Ulster coasts, and a slight risk of snow or sleet by tonight in the southwest. Winds SE 30-50 km/hr will add a chill to highs only 4-7 C (mildest in west).

TONIGHT ... Cloudy south and west, some clear intervals inland north and east, coldest in those regions with lows -4 to -1 C. Somewhat milder in southwest with drizzle near the coast by morning, slight risk of sleet or snow inland west Munster especially on hills in Kerry. Some coastal drizzle or snow grains near east Ulster coasts. Otherwise, a dry night in most places.

EASTER SUNDAY into MONDAY ... Dry and cold in most regions, continued rather cloudy with a few sunny breaks most likely inland north and west. Moderate southeast winds becoming stronger during Easter Sunday, 40-70 km/hr. Highs both days about 5-8 C mildest in the southwest. Some intermittent light rain could move into west Munster at times on Sunday, and may still be present on the outer coast until Monday morning, and that could change at times to sleet or wet snow in some inland areas about as far north and east as mid-Clare to the Cork-Waterford borders, but amounts appear likely to be slight (2-4 mm equivalent). Monday will have somewhat more sunshine in places, and the temperatures will remain in the same range.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY, FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The pattern will only change slowly and winds will back around to more of a northeast to northerly direction; there could be some weak streamers at some point but the overall pattern looks dry well into the following weekend and nights will remain very chilly but days are probably going to start to feel a bit more spring-like, if only because the sun is getting a bit stronger each day. Highs will be in the 5-8 C range but could edge up closer to 10 C in the west by the end of the week and the following weekend. Beyond that, there could be further warming in more of a southwesterly flow that will finally break down this long-standing blocking or at least turn it to the advantage of those who want warmth. That might also come with some showers at times from weak systems, but the pattern looks relatively dry.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cold and dry with some sunny intervals, extensive cloud in east with isolated sleety showers or flurries mainly in northeast England and some parts of southeast England (Kent mostly). Highs about 5-7 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals except for extensive cloud south, rain or sleet in parts of the southwest, lows -5 to -2 C for most, 1-3 C southwest.

OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland, cold and dry in most places, rain or sleet in south at times. Continued very cold nights inland north, Wales, Scotland.


Forecasts for North America

A warmer air mass is trying to make some eastward progress from the central plains states and rain with some thunderstorms embedded is moving into the developing frontal system early today. This will become rather heavy later in parts of Missouri, Arkansas and Tennessee. Thunderstorms will also hit parts of east Texas, Louisiana and southern Arkansas. Warm and humid to the south of these fronts, highs to 27 C there. Except in parts of far eastern Canada, the eastern states and provinces will be milder than recent days with highs reaching 14 C today and 17 C on Sunday. This is also true for the Midwest except that on Sunday the mild air will be rapidly replaced by a fresh arctic surge that is moving south across the prairies of western Canada this weekend. Meanwhile, it has turned very warm and mostly dry in the far west with highs 17-22 C in many places as far north as central B.C.

My local weather on Friday was sunny and mild with a high near 16 C.

Best wishes to you for a happy Easter. I will likely post a forecast on Sunday morning but it may just be a brief update given this weather pattern.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 31 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... EASTER SUNDAY ... Rain will spread into parts of west Munster with about 3-5 mm likely. This rain could become sleety or turn to snow on higher ground (snow could fall on terrain above 300m) and also near its northern and eastern margins where it could encounter colder air, but most of the rain will be associated with temperatures about 6-9 C. The temperatures may be up slightly but so is the southeast wind, adding some chill to what will probably feel like a rather raw day especially near the south coast. Outside the area of rain (or sleet), the day should remain dry if rather cloudy, and the best chance for any sunshine would likely be in parts of Ulster, although a separate area of cloud is moving west across the Irish Sea and this could bring one or two light flurries later to east Ulster. Highs about 5-7 C in Leinster, Connacht and Ulster.

TONIGHT ... Rain continuing at times in west Munster and coastal Connacht, lows 3-5 C. Sleet could develop for a time near the eastern margins of this rainfall in central to western inland counties, but it should remain dry in most of Leinster, inland Connacht and Ulster.

MONDAY ... Dry and cold in most regions, continued rather cloudy with a few sunny breaks most likely inland north and west. Moderate southeast winds and highs about 5-8 C mildest in the southwest. Some intermittent light rain could continue across west coastal districts until about 10:00 a.m. or so, then the remainder of the day will become dry.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY, FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The pattern will only change slowly and winds will back around to more of a northeast to northerly direction; there could be some weak streamers at some point but the overall pattern looks dry well into the following weekend and nights will remain very chilly but days are probably going to start to feel a bit more spring-like, if only because the sun is getting a bit stronger each day. Highs will be in the 5-8 C range but could edge up closer to 10 C in the west by the end of the week and the following weekend. Beyond that, there could be further warming in more of a southwesterly flow that will finally break down this long-standing blocking or at least turn it to the advantage of those who want warmth. That might also come with some showers at times from weak systems, but the pattern looks relatively dry.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... For most regions, very cold and dry with some sunny intervals, extensive cloud in east with isolated sleety showers or flurries mainly in northeast England and some parts of southeast England (Kent mostly). Highs about 3-6 C but readings below zero for quite some time before mid-day. Drizzle or sleet could move into some parts of the southwest. Winds E to SE 40-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals except for extensive cloud south, rain or sleet in parts of the southwest ending around midnight, lows -6 to -3 C for most, 1-3 C southwest.

OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland, cold and dry in most places, rain or sleet in south at times. A few flurries possible mid-week near east coast. Continued very cold nights inland north, Wales, Scotland.


Forecasts for North America

Showers and thunderstorms becoming widespread and heavier as a frontal system moves east through the Mississippi valley. Warm and humid near the Gulf coast, mild although seasonable further north, until much colder air arrives during the evening in parts of the Midwest. This will be rushing south from central Canada and the northern plains states which have already turned quite cold with a few flurries in a brisk northerly flow. West of the Rockies it is much milder with spring warmth reaching close to 20 C in many places.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny and very mild, 18 C and we're expecting a similar day for Easter Sunday (20 C).

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 1 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland


MONDAY ... Dry and cold in most regions, continued rather cloudy with a few sunny breaks most likely inland north and west. Moderate southeast winds 35-55 km/hr and highs about 5-8 C, mildest in the southwest. Some intermittent light rain could continue across parts of west Munster at times but probably ending mid-day, then the afternoon should become dry there also.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some clear intervals developing, frost in some parts with lows about -2 to +2 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, cold, mostly dry but slight risk of an east coast flurry of snow or hail. Highs near 6 C east and 9 C west, in moderate easterly winds reaching about 50 km/hr at times in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, cold, moderate east winds. Morning lows near -3 C and afternoon highs 6-9 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny for most, partly cloudy east and mostly cloudy in far north, a few light flurries or hail showers developing in weak streamers from Irish Sea into parts of Ulster and Leinster in east to northeast winds 40-60 km/hr. Morning lows about -3 C inland and afternoon highs 6-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny, cold although a slight moderation in the daytime, morning lows about -3 C and afternoon highs 7-11 C mildest in the southwest.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Mostly cloudy, showers developing, not quite as cold, highs around 10-13 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The warming trend may be halted by a rather strong low pressure system that will resume the flow of Atlantic air into Ireland, but with perhaps quite a heavy rainfall and strong, blustery winds veering from southwest to northwest during the week. It may be well on into the second half of April before it warms up to above normal values although some maps show that sort of outcome at least getting quite close to the south coast at times by mid-month.


Forecasts for Britain

The week will continue quite cold and sharp to severe frosts are likely each night, with daytime highs generally around 5-9 C. About Thursday or Friday there could be a rather heavy snowfall in some east coast locations due to a reinforcement of the colder air masses from the east. The slight warming that might reach Ireland may not make it very far into Britain before stalling, so it may not be felt in parts of eastern Scotland and northeast England.


Forecasts for North America

Showers and thunderstorms widespread and heavy in some places across the southeast today, continuing rather warm and humid near the Gulf coast, mild although seasonable further north this morning before colder air arrives during the mid-day period from the Midwest which is already turning considerably colder in brisk northwest winds. This colder air mass will bring highs only 5-8 C with some flurries near the Great Lakes, spreading into inland portions of the northeast states. Generally very mild to warm in western regions with an area of showers and thunderstorms in southern Idaho and northern Nevada, Utah, spreading slowly east towards Colorado by tonight. This will eventually set off a strong frontal wave in the plains states in a couple of days time.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and warm, reaching about 20 or 21 C locally and 24 C further inland ... skies were totally clear although hazy more like a warm autumn day than spring, as there is a chill in the air as soon as the sun gets lower in the evening. We have one more very warm day ahead, then back to a more seasonable pattern here.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 1 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland


MONDAY ... Dry and cold in most regions, continued rather cloudy with a few sunny breaks most likely inland north and west. Moderate southeast winds 35-55 km/hr and highs about 5-8 C, mildest in the southwest. Some intermittent light rain could continue across parts of west Munster at times but probably ending mid-day, then the afternoon should become dry there also.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some clear intervals developing, frost in some parts with lows about -2 to +2 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, cold, mostly dry but slight risk of an east coast flurry of snow or hail. Highs near 6 C east and 9 C west, in moderate easterly winds reaching about 50 km/hr at times in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, cold, moderate east winds. Morning lows near -3 C and afternoon highs 6-9 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny for most, partly cloudy east and mostly cloudy in far north, a few light flurries or hail showers developing in weak streamers from Irish Sea into parts of Ulster and Leinster in east to northeast winds 40-60 km/hr. Morning lows about -3 C inland and afternoon highs 6-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny, cold although a slight moderation in the daytime, morning lows about -3 C and afternoon highs 7-11 C mildest in the southwest.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Mostly cloudy, showers developing, not quite as cold, highs around 10-13 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The warming trend may be halted by a rather strong low pressure system that will resume the flow of Atlantic air into Ireland, but with perhaps quite a heavy rainfall and strong, blustery winds veering from southwest to northwest during the week. It may be well on into the second half of April before it warms up to above normal values although some maps show that sort of outcome at least getting quite close to the south coast at times by mid-month.


Forecasts for Britain

The week will continue quite cold and sharp to severe frosts are likely each night, with daytime highs generally around 5-9 C. About Thursday or Friday there could be a rather heavy snowfall in some east coast locations due to a reinforcement of the colder air masses from the east. The slight warming that might reach Ireland may not make it very far into Britain before stalling, so it may not be felt in parts of eastern Scotland and northeast England.


Forecasts for North America

Showers and thunderstorms widespread and heavy in some places across the southeast today, continuing rather warm and humid near the Gulf coast, mild although seasonable further north this morning before colder air arrives during the mid-day period from the Midwest which is already turning considerably colder in brisk northwest winds. This colder air mass will bring highs only 5-8 C with some flurries near the Great Lakes, spreading into inland portions of the northeast states. Generally very mild to warm in western regions with an area of showers and thunderstorms in southern Idaho and northern Nevada, Utah, spreading slowly east towards Colorado by tonight. This will eventually set off a strong frontal wave in the plains states in a couple of days time.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and warm, reaching about 20 or 21 C locally and 24 C further inland ... skies were totally clear although hazy more like a warm autumn day than spring, as there is a chill in the air as soon as the sun gets lower in the evening. We have one more very warm day ahead, then back to a more seasonable pattern here.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 2 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy but more chance of sunshine in western counties, cold, mostly dry but slight risk of an east coast flurry of snow or hail. Highs near 6 C east and 9 C west, in moderate easterly winds reaching about 50 km/hr at times in the afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Little change from previous nights, partly cloudy to clear, cold, some frost mostly in valleys, and lows around -2 C in some rural districts, and closer to +1 C in large towns and cities, also near the east and south coasts.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, cold, moderate east winds. Morning lows near -3 C and afternoon highs 6-9 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny for most, partly cloudy east and mostly cloudy in far north, a few light flurries or hail showers developing in weak streamers from Irish Sea into parts of Ulster and Leinster in east to northeast winds 40-60 km/hr. Morning lows about -3 C inland and afternoon highs 6-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny, cold although a slight moderation in the daytime, morning lows about -3 C and afternoon highs 7-11 C mildest in the southwest.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, light winds, a bit milder after a chilly start, lows near -1 C and highs 10-12 C.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud east, periods of rain developing west, becoming quite windy (SW 40-70 km/hr), highs near 13 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The warming trend may be halted by a rather strong low pressure system that will resume the flow of Atlantic air into Ireland, but with perhaps quite a heavy rainfall and strong, blustery winds veering from southwest to northwest during the week. This outcome shows up as a very strong low on this morning's European model run, timed to arrive Tuesday the 9th, so this will need to be watched. It may be well on into the second half of April before it warms up to above normal values although some maps show that sort of outcome at least getting quite close to the south coast at times by mid-month.


Forecasts for Britain

The week will continue quite cold and sharp to severe frosts are likely each night, with daytime highs generally around 5-9 C. About Thursday or Friday there could be a rather heavy snowfall in some east coast locations due to a reinforcement of the colder air masses from the east. The slight warming that might reach Ireland may not make it very far into Britain before stalling, so it may not be felt in parts of eastern Scotland and northeast England.


Forecasts for North America

Becoming very unsettled in the plains states later today as a currently rather weak system in Colorado moves away from the Rockies and begins to pull in very humid air already present over most of Texas. Heavy rainfalls are likely tonight and tomorrow from about Oklahoma and east Texas to Georgia, moving gradually further north. Meanwhile, quite cold over the eastern Great Lakes with some lake effect hail and snow showers, and cool, dry but partly cloudy for most of the northeast U.S. ... Very mild sunny weather over the far west will gradually give way to increasing cloud and evening or overnight light rainfalls.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and mild although not as warm as the weekend, mainly because winds picked up from the south and drew in some chilly marine air from Puget Sound (which is running about 9 C). The high was about 14 C at my location but still into the low 20s a bit further inland. Rain is expected by Wednesday early morning.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 3 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... After a very cold start in some inland locations (-5 C has been reported) and possibly some ice and freezing fog early on, the day should improve gradually to partly cloudy or even sunny skies, with moderate east winds developing (30-50 km/hr) and afternoon highs 6-10 C mildest near the Atlantic coasts. Very low relative humidity in many areas this afternoon with the possibility of one or two fires and resultant smoke plumes that would generally drift westward at low altitudes as the air is quite stable. There could also be widely separated and probably brief hail or snow showers in some parts of the east in weak streamers that could form mainly between Meath and Wicklow.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, very cold for early April with lows -2 to -5 C inland and closer to zero or +1 C in large towns and cities as well as near the south and east coasts.

THURSDAY ... Sunny for most, partly cloudy east and mostly cloudy in far north, a few light flurries or hail showers developing in weak streamers from Irish Sea into parts of Ulster and Leinster in east to northeast winds 40-60 km/hr. Morning lows about -3 C inland and afternoon highs 6-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny, cold although a slight moderation in the daytime, morning lows about -3 C and afternoon highs 7-11 C mildest in the southwest.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, light winds, a bit milder after a chilly start, lows near -1 C and highs 10-12 C.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud east, periods of rain developing west, becoming quite windy (SW 40-70 km/hr), highs near 12 C.

MONDAY ... Breezy to windy, showers, possibly heavy rain later and highs around 11 C. Heavy rain and fog with southerly winds possibly at or near gale force south coast in particular by Monday night. Some localized snowmelt flooding from higher terrain and in parts of east Ulster.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Periods of rain, hail showers at times, highs each day about 8-10 C. Risk of some heavy rains and spot flooding will have to be assessed closer to the event. On the other hand, the rain may be beneficial in some places.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... At the moment, the chances of a really large upward trend in temperature is uncertain and anything much above 12-15 C may be either very brief or cut off at the pass by yet another cold spell, although this time from a more northwesterly source (so not quite as extreme).


Forecasts for Britain

The pattern will be very similar to Ireland with the exception of more widespread hail or snow showers around Thursday in eastern counties of England and Scotland.

Forecasts for North America

Heavy rain and a few severe storms in the southeast states expanding into parts of Florida later today. Rather cool and mostly cloudy further north with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle in parts of the Ohio valley, cool and mainly dry in the northeast states and Great Lakes region (more sunshine further north where quite cold). Outbreaks of rain turning to sleet and snow in the border regions between the Canadian prairies and plains states, and mostly cloudy further west with gradual clearing later in the day, isolated showers over the western mountains, temperatures near normal (highs in valleys about 12-15 C).

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with spits of light rain and a high of about 13 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 4 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Another very cold start, then gradually warming a little under sunny skies in most places, more partly cloudy east and mostly cloudy in far north, with a few light flurries or hail showers developing in weak streamers from Irish Sea into parts of Ulster and Leinster in east to northeast winds that could reach 40-60 km/hr by afternoon. Afternoon highs 6-10 C, milder near west coast.

TONIGHT ... Another frosty night in many places although possibly more cloud keeping temperatures closer to zero or +1 C in parts of Leinster and east Ulster. Slight risk of snow flurries there as well. Lows under clear skies further west could fall once again to near -4 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny, cold although a slight moderation in the daytime, slight risk of flurries or wintry showers in Leinster, with afternoon highs 7-11 C mildest in the southwest.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, light winds, a bit milder after a chilly start, lows near -1 C and highs 8-11 C. There could be some rain or sleet by evening as winds become easterly 30-50 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud east, periods of rain developing from southwest into most other regions, becoming quite windy (E to SE 40-70 km/hr), highs near 9 C in south and possibly as low as 5 C in the north. Some of the rain could turn to sleet or hill snow in the north as warming will be held close to the south coast by slow-moving warm fronts that may not push north until fairly late overnight or on Monday.

MONDAY ... Breezy to windy, showers, possibly heavy rain later and highs in west and south around 11 C, possibly as cold as 7 C further east and north where the milder air will be very slow to arrive. Heavy rain (20-40 mm) and fog with southeast to southerly winds possibly at or near gale force south coast in particular by Monday night. Some localized snowmelt flooding from higher terrain and in parts of east Ulster combining with the rainfall, and this could be locally severe. Depending on which model solution is correct, winds may veer to strong southwest overnight into Tuesday, or back into the east if the low tracks south, or even fall off to calm if it tracks overhead. With the persistence of the cold spell, a cold and easterly solution (possibly with mixed precipitation as a result) seems quite likely, warming is going to take some sustained effort.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Periods of rain, hail showers at times, highs each day about 8-12 C. Risk of some heavy rains and spot flooding will have to be assessed closer to the event. On the other hand, the rain may be beneficial in some places. Winds are likely to become more northerly and temperatures may once again begin to fall towards lower single digits later in the period. Showers could then become mixed and wintry.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... At the moment, the chances of a really large upward trend in temperature is uncertain and anything much above 12-15 C may be either very brief or cut off at the pass by yet another cold spell, although this time from a more northwesterly source (so not quite as extreme). At least there are suggestions of a warming trend later in April, so therefore some hope of improvements. I think the last week of the month is the best chance for any real warmth.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, isolated wintry showers and cold, northeast winds 40-60 km/hr. Some heavier snow showers possible inland eastern counties. Highs 5-7 C at best.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, very cold. Lows -6 to -2 C.

OUTLOOK ... The pattern will be very similar to Ireland with the exception of more widespread hail or snow showers around Thursday and Friday in eastern counties of England and Scotland. The rather uncertain outlook for the low pressure system next week will very likely play out as a slow transition with bands of wintry then mixed precipitation followed by heavy rainfalls especially in the south.

Forecasts for North America

Widespread heavy rainfalls of 75 mm or more in the southeast, with greatest risk of severe storms in central Florida, as very warm and humid air is contained to the south of a front in that region. Further north, a weaker secondary warm front will bring outbreaks of light rain almost to the Great Lakes region, with extensive cloud and somewhat cooler than average temperatures. Another storm is brewing over the Rockies and will bring snow to parts of the northern plains states and southern prairies. Very cold arctic air is pushing south again into these regions but will be held back over central British Columbia by entrenched milder Pacific air that will gradually start to drop rain in valleys and some snow on mountains as the cold air creeps closer tonight and Friday.

My local weather on Wednesday was pleasant with broken cloud and a mild high of about 14 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 5 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly sunny and cold with a slight risk of flurries or wintry showers of hail, sleet in Leinster, with Wicklow and Wexford more likely to see these, in fact one or two could become heavy for a few minutes with thunder; however, most places will remain dry ... afternoon highs 7-11 C mildest in the southwest. Winds E-NE 30-50 km/hr with some higher gusts near Irish Sea and Atlantic coasts.

TONIGHT ... Another clear, cold night with some increase in cloud towards morning, lows -5 to -2 C, and patchy ice fog developing towards dawn, as winds become generally calm.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, light winds, a bit milder after a chilly start, and highs 8-11 C. There could be some rain or sleet by evening as winds become southeasterly 30-50 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud east, periods of rain developing from southwest into most other regions, becoming quite windy (E to SE 40-70 km/hr), highs near 9 C in south and possibly as low as 5 C in the north. Some of the rain could turn to sleet or hill snow in the north as warming will be held close to the south coast by slow-moving warm fronts that may not push north until fairly late overnight or on Monday, if at all.

MONDAY ... Breezy to windy, showers, possibly heavy rain later and highs in west and south around 11 C, possibly as cold as 7 C further east and north where the milder air will be very slow to arrive. Heavy rain (15-30 mm) in west Munster and fog with southeast to southerly winds possibly at or near gale force along the south coast in particular by Monday night. Some localized snowmelt flooding from higher terrain and in parts of east Ulster combining with any rainfall, and this could become locally severe. Winds east to southeast at about 40-70 km/hr.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Periods of rain, hail showers at times, highs each day about 8-12 C although could be held to 4-7 C in Ulster. Risk of some heavy rains (20-30 mm) with risk of spot flooding in west Munster, otherwise amounts of about 5-15 mm. On the other hand, the rain may be beneficial in some places. Easterly winds are likely to become more northwesterly and temperatures may once again begin to fall towards lower single digits later in the period. Showers could then become mixed and wintry.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... At the moment, the chances of a really large upward trend in temperature is uncertain and anything much above 12-15 C may be either very brief or cut off at the pass by yet another cold spell, although this time from a more northwesterly source (so not quite as extreme). At least there are suggestions of a warming trend later in April, so therefore some hope of improvements. I think the last week of the month is the best chance for any real warmth.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, isolated wintry showers and cold, northeast winds 40-60 km/hr. Some heavier snow showers possible inland eastern counties. Highs 5-7 C at best.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, very cold. Lows -6 to -2 C.

WEEKEND ... Dry and cold for most on Saturday, some sunshine but also some low cloud and wintry showers in a few eastern counties, highs about 7C then Sunday more cloudy with mixed precip in bands across the south, snow or sleet mainly at higher elevations but a very cold rain that could mix with snow at lower elevations, highs 5-8 C.

NEXT WEEK ... Unsettled and remaining quite chilly with further possibillity of sleet or snow as well as considerable rain and temperatures mostly in the range of 5-9 C. Somewhat milder towards the following weekend.


Forecasts for North America

Rain will be moving northeast and mainly out to sea from the Carolinas, with heavy thunderstorms across south Florida also moving out to sea later. This rainfall could brush parts of New England by tonight and turn to sleet or wet snow inland before ending. Dry and chilly further north and west including most parts of the Midwest where light rain could turn to sleet later or tonight. Somewhat warmer in parts of the central plains states in advance of a developing storm that will become quite intense on the weekend with an outbreak of severe storms possible in "tornado alley" by Sunday. Rain in most parts of the Pacific northwest states and Britisih Columbia, turning much colder in central and northern B.C.

My local weather on Thursday was cloudy with periods of rain (20 mm) and a rather mild high near 15 C. Our spring blooming has accelerated to reach about the normal pace now (after being behind schedule most of March). Bushes are in flower and some deciduous trees are showing green buds.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Sat 6 April 2013
_________________________

Forecast continues in same general theme as before (have already tried to post an update but ongoing boards maintenance intervened).

Weekend should continue largely cool and dry with outbreaks of light rain or sleet making little progress beyond outer west and south coasts at first.

Monday to Thursday looks like being a rather wet and easterly-dominated interval with two pulses of rainfall adding up eventually to 30-40 mm in some places especially the inland south. Moderate east winds will add a chill at times to highs no better than 7-10 C.

Some slight improvements appear possible by end of next weekend and on into the following week, but no definite signal of a large-scale pattern change yet.

The updated forecasts for Britain are very similar to the above, and for North America, the pattern seems to be changing rather gradually to a warmer regime central and eastern regions, but this will at first involve outbreaks of rather heavy rainfall moving east from the central plains and Midwest.

My local weather on Friday was cloudy with rain and highs near 13 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 7 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, dry for most regions but light rain at times in west Munster (3-6 mm), winds becoming moderate ESE 25-45 km/hr by afternoon, highs 7-10 C mildest in Connacht.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, light rain or drizzle in Munster possibly spreading a bit further north and east by morning, lows 2-4 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with outbreaks of light rain turning to sleet on some higher terrain, winds ESE 30-50 km/hr, highs 7-10 C. Rainfalls 2-5 mm.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy, occasional light rain with 5-10 mm in south, lesser amounts in north, morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs 8-11 C. Some clearing possible in north by afternoon. Winds decreasing for most regions during the afternoon and evening.

WEDNESDAY into THURSDAY MORNING ... Advance alert for heavy rain and strong winds as southeast winds increase to 50-80 km/hr south coast, 40-70 km/hr elsewhere, and 20-40 mm rain that could mix with sleet in some northern regions and snow on higher elevations. Highs 8-10 C south, 4-7 C north.

THURSDAY ... Heavy rain and strong winds easing during the day, winds becoming northerly and decreasing, temperatures steady 5-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, highs near 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat milder, but continued unsettled later in the weekend and into the early part of the following week. Still some chance of more significant warming later in the month.

Forecasts for Britain

In general, the same picture emerges, dry at first, increasing amounts of rain spreading from south during Monday and Tuesday, then a more significant wind and rain event Wednesday night lasting most of Thursday. Some bands of sleet or snow could develop ahead of the rain especially at higher elevations.

Forecasts for North America

Today, rain will spread into the eastern Great Lakes and inland northeast states ahead of very mild air that is now covering almost all of the central and eastern U.S. ahead of a developing storm system in Kansas and Oklahoma. This will bring the risk of severe storms in the south central states later today and further east on Monday. Highs ahead of this storm front will reach the low to mid 20s with strong southerly winds. Somewhat colder than normal temperatures are working south across western Canada to replace light rain with sleet or snow inland, cold showery rains near the west coast.

My local weather on Saturday was mostly cloudy with brief sunny intervals and occasional light rain at times, highs near 13 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 8 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, although some brighter intervals across inland north at times, with outbreaks of light rain mainly south and west-central, that may turn to sleet on some higher terrain, winds ESE 30-50 km/hr, highs 7-10 C. Rainfalls 2-5 mm.

TONIGHT ... Further outbreaks of light rain or sleet on hills, feeling rather cold in moderate east to southeast winds, lows 2-4 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy, occasional light rain with 5-10 mm in south, lesser amounts in north, morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs 8-11 C. Some clearing possible in north by afternoon. Winds decreasing for most regions during the afternoon and evening.

WEDNESDAY into THURSDAY MORNING ... Moderate to heavy rain and strong winds as southeast winds increase to 50-70 km/hr south coast, 40-60 km/hr elsewhere, and 20-40 mm rain that could mix with sleet in some northern regions and even snow on higher elevations (not expected to be disruptive). Highs 8-10 C south, but only 4-7 C north.

THURSDAY ... Heavy rain and strong winds easing during the day, winds becoming northerly and decreasing, temperatures steady 5-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, highs near 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat milder, in fact some guidance is now showing considerable warming as early as this coming weekend ... not totally sold on this yet, although hoping it's the case ... but the first warming efforts could be cut off by surges of moisture, but any combination of warmth and rain would be good for the growing season which is possibly as much as three or four weeks behind a normal pace. Some maps are suggesting highs into the mid to high teens so there's hope, and to back that up, the equally cold (in March) eastern U.S. has just warmed up to above normal values as well.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Outbreaks of light rain, sleety on hills, in south, isolated showers and partly to mostly cloudy, cool, southeast winds 40-70 km/hr. Highs 8-11 C on average but 4-7 C on higher ground in Wales and parts of inland southwest England, also easterrn Scotland.

OUTLOOK ... Just about the same picture as for Ireland, although events about half a day later on average, so that Thursday would be the wet and windy day.


Forecasts for North America

Very warm in most of eastern and central U.S., extending into southern Ontario and parts of Quebec, New Brunswick. Bands of rain, freezing rain, and snow to the north across the central and northern Great Lakes, and outbreaks of heavy or severe storms in the central plains states, as highs generally reach 25-30 C ahead of this severe weather, but only slightly cooler to north and west of the storm complex as most of the really cold air is held back behind a system further north in southern B.C. and eastern Washington, bringing rain, sleet and snow to the interior west.

On Sunday, my local weather was cloudy with light rain at times, and highs 9-10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 8 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, although some brighter intervals across inland north at times, with outbreaks of light rain mainly south and west-central, that may turn to sleet on some higher terrain, winds ESE 30-50 km/hr, highs 7-10 C. Rainfalls 2-5 mm.

TONIGHT ... Further outbreaks of light rain or sleet on hills, feeling rather cold in moderate east to southeast winds, lows 2-4 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy, occasional light rain with 5-10 mm in south, lesser amounts in north, morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs 8-11 C. Some clearing possible in north by afternoon. Winds decreasing for most regions during the afternoon and evening.

WEDNESDAY into THURSDAY MORNING ... Moderate to heavy rain and strong winds as southeast winds increase to 50-70 km/hr south coast, 40-60 km/hr elsewhere, and 20-40 mm rain that could mix with sleet in some northern regions and even snow on higher elevations (not expected to be disruptive). Highs 8-10 C south, but only 4-7 C north.

THURSDAY ... Heavy rain and strong winds easing during the day, winds becoming northerly and decreasing, temperatures steady 5-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, highs near 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat milder, in fact some guidance is now showing considerable warming as early as this coming weekend ... not totally sold on this yet, although hoping it's the case ... but the first warming efforts could be cut off by surges of moisture, but any combination of warmth and rain would be good for the growing season which is possibly as much as three or four weeks behind a normal pace. Some maps are suggesting highs into the mid to high teens so there's hope, and to back that up, the equally cold (in March) eastern U.S. has just warmed up to above normal values as well.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Outbreaks of light rain, sleety on hills, in south, isolated showers and partly to mostly cloudy, cool, southeast winds 40-70 km/hr. Highs 8-11 C on average but 4-7 C on higher ground in Wales and parts of inland southwest England, also easterrn Scotland.

OUTLOOK ... Just about the same picture as for Ireland, although events about half a day later on average, so that Thursday would be the wet and windy day.


Forecasts for North America

Very warm in most of eastern and central U.S., extending into southern Ontario and parts of Quebec, New Brunswick. Bands of rain, freezing rain, and snow to the north across the central and northern Great Lakes, and outbreaks of heavy or severe storms in the central plains states, as highs generally reach 25-30 C ahead of this severe weather, but only slightly cooler to north and west of the storm complex as most of the really cold air is held back behind a system further north in southern B.C. and eastern Washington, bringing rain, sleet and snow to the interior west.

On Sunday, my local weather was cloudy with light rain at times, and highs 9-10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 9 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and cool with light rain at times in south and west, isolated showers or drizzle elsewhere, only 2-5 mm further accumulation at most. Highs about 7-9 C with winds E to NE 30-50 km/hr, decreasing during the afternoon and evening.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy but some clear intervals further north, lows 2-5 C coldest inland north (any longer clear intervals could allow brief frosty intervals to develop) ... a few showers near south coast.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy north, overcast south, increasing southeast winds reaching 40-70 km/hr by late afternoon and evening, and a spell of heavier rain developing late afternoon in west Munster, lasting overnight in most of the south and southeast. Amounts there 15-30 mm, but only 3-7 mm in north, to Thursday morning. Highs about 6-8 C, feeling very cold in the afternoon and evening winds and rain which could mix with sleet on higher ground.

THURSDAY ... Rain or sleet ending, snow on higher elevations, then becoming partly cloudy with moderate NE winds 30-50 km/hr, morning lows near 3-4 C and afternoon highs 7-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, occasional showers, lows 2-4 C and highs about 9 C.

SATURDAY ... Becoming windy and a bit milder (winds S 40-70 km/hr, reaching 60-100 km/hr outer west coast by evening) ... periods of rain developing in west by mid-day or afternoon, potential for 10-20 mm ... lows about 4 C and highs about 12 to 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Windy (possibly gale force gusts) with showers, highs 8-11 C. Winds southwest 70-110 km/hr in northwest coastal districts, otherwise about 50-80 km/hr.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Next week looks somewhat milder and settled, with highs into the mid teens at times.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Light rain south, mostly cloudy with isolated showers further north, some mixing with sleet or snow in Midlands, Wales, especially on higher elevations ... highs 6-9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Further outbreaks of rain becoming heavy at times on Thursday, temperatures staying in the range of 5-10 C for several more days. Saturday could become warmer briefly, then windy and showery on Sunday.


Forecasts for North America

The main weather story will be an outbreak of severe storms in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, spreading slowly east during the week, with very warm and mostly sunny weather further east ahead of the fronts, and cold, snowy conditions with strong northerly winds behind the fronts in Colorado, spreading to western Nebraska and Kansas. This will eventually lose some strength and become a cold rain further east by mid-week. The very warm air is now being pushed back slightly in parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest by a slowly sinking arctic high over central Canada. Near the core of that air mass the weather is clear and cold with highs minus 2-5 C and overnight lows near minus 10 C. This trends to sleet or snow showers over parts of the Rockies and milder, showery conditions on the west coast.

My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy and mild with highs near 12 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 10 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: New moon occurs this morning at 10:36 summer time, and would be seen just below the Sun (next month there will be an annular total eclipse visible closer to the equator).

ALERT for locally heavy rainfalls later today and Thursday in southern and central counties. 20-40 mm potential. This may be repeated on Saturday. As the ground is fairly dry in many parts, this could be beneficial but there is a risk of spot flooding and some rivers draining high (or northern) snow-covered terrain could be close to flood stages.

TODAY ... Partly cloudy north, with light showers drifting north ... overcast south, increasing southeast winds reaching 40-70 km/hr by late afternoon and evening, and a spell of heavier rain developing late afternoon in west Munster, lasting overnight in most of the south and southeast. Amounts there 15-30 mm, but only 5-10 mm in north, to Thursday morning. Highs about 6-8 C, feeling very cold in the afternoon and evening winds and rain which could mix with sleet on higher ground.

TONIGHT ... Outbreaks of heavy rain (see above for amounts), stronger east winds moving further north, fog developing south. Lows 4-7 C south and about 2-4 C north.

THURSDAY ... Rain or higher elevation sleet heavy at times, tapering to showers in some parts of north where skies could become partly cloudy later, snow possible on higher elevations, with moderate NE winds 30-50 km/hr, morning lows near 3-4 C and afternoon highs 7-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Rain ending in east during the morning, becoming partly cloudy to overcast, occasional showers, lows 2-4 C and highs about 9 C.

SATURDAY ... Becoming windy and a bit milder (winds S 40-70 km/hr, reaching 60-100 km/hr outer west coast by evening) ... periods of rain developing in west by mid-day or afternoon, potential for 10-20 mm ... lows about 4 C and highs about 12 to 14 C. The storm in the Atlantic will have some force 10-11 winds associated (from SSW) but these could either be near the west coast or several hundred nautical miles out to sea, depending on which guidance verifies, so this will also have an impact on how strong the winds become over various regions on land.

SUNDAY ... Morning lows quite mild at 6-9 C, windy at first (southwest 70-110 km/hr in northwest coastal districts, otherwise about 50-80 km/hr) with rain tapering to showers, a further 10-20 mm, then becoming less windy (SW 30-50 km/hr) and partly cloudy with highs 8-11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Monday and Tuesday look rather breezy with frequent showers or periods of rain and near normal temperatures (12-14 C) then a milder interval should develop (15-18 C) later in the week ... this could be followed by a somewhat cooler but settled period under high pressure drifting southeast from near Iceland (not a severe cold spell), then towards the end of the month there could even be some warm weather in a southeast flow once that high settles in over Europe.


Forecasts for Britain

Increasing cloud today with outbreaks of rain in the southwest mainly, then heavier rain and gusty east to southeast winds on Thursday lasting well into Friday, not as wet in central and northern Scotland however, temperatures about 7-9 C much of the time ... briefly quite warm on the weekend, becoming windy and showery ... unsettled for part of next week then similar outlook long range to Ireland.


Forecasts for North America

Further outbreaks of heavy rain and severe storms moving slowly east from current locations (IA-eKS-wMO-AR-seOK-neTX) towards the Mississippi valley, rain mixed with wet snow across parts of the upper Midwest and lower, central Great Lakes, as the warm air is now moving due east and not lifting any further north, in fact, it may retreat slightly later today and tonight in some parts of Ohio and Pennsylvania, and then in NYC and southern New England, but not cold enough for snow there at any point (snow will move into Quebec and northern New England and could become heavy in places).

A separate storm system is developing over B.C. and Alberta and this will spread a lot of rain across the Pacific northwest states, snow at higher elevations and into parts of the central Canadian prairies.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast and cool with drizzle and slight fog, highs near 9 C. A steady rain has been falling this evening.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 11 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Heavy rain is moving north and will be followed by a brief "dry slot" or partly cloudy regime in the south but that will quickly become unstable leading to outbreaks of thundery showers with hail, most intense around the inland south and southeast. Meanwhile the steady rain will generally weaken to showers and then drizzle. Further amounts of 10-15 mm likely, with some spot flooding developing, as there is slight risk of 20-30 mm locally. Highs about 8-10 C north, 10-13 C south. Winds generally rather variable except moderate easterly in Ulster and north Connacht.

TONIGHT ... Showers dying out, becoming misty or foggy, lows 3-5 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers developing in light to moderate northeast winds. Highs 8-11 C. Friday night will become dry with some clearing, some lingering fog, and lows about -1 to +3 C.

SATURDAY ... A dry start in the east, any morning sunshine brief as rain quickly developing from the west and spreading to east mid-day, as winds increase to southerly 40-70 km/hr. Very windy near Atlantic coast by afternoon and evening (SSW 70-100 km/hr). Rainfalls about 20 mm and highs about 14-16 C southeast, 12-14 C elsewhere.

SUNDAY ... Moderate southwest winds gusty at times, showers with some brief sunny breaks, morning lows 7-9 C and afternoon highs 13-15 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals to start, cloudy with rain developing later, southwest winds may become rather strong by late in the day, highs near 13.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Tuesday unsettled and breezy, then relatively dry and continuing milder with highs generally mid teens 14-17 C.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will see rain developing with some heavy downpours in the south by later today, risk of thunder in the southwest. Not as wet in central to northern Scotland. Highs about 7-9 C for most. TONIGHT will remain wet and foggy, lows about 4-7 C.

FRIDAY will continue unsettled and rather cool with highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY will become considerably warmer in southerly winds and partly cloudy skies, rain arriving late afternoon in west. Highs about 14-17 C.

SUNDAY will continue partly to mostly cloudy and rather warm with highs near 18 C in many places.

NEXT WEEK will follow about the same pattern as Ireland although it could be somewhat warmer in southeast England. It looks as though the long cold spell has finally been broken and there are no major indications of a return to anything worse than near normal or slightly below normal temperatures later this month.


Forecasts for North America

For the Masters golf tournament, expect today to become cloudy with a slight risk of a shower or non-severe thundershower late afternoon, warm with highs of 27 C. There is a risk of heavier rain and gusty storms (not overly severe) on Friday, highs 23-25 C, followed by a clearing trend later, and the weekend should be placid under a weak ridge of high pressure, highs 22-24 C. Any weather delays would be mid-day Friday and should be made up rather quickly.

In general, the southeast states will see the last of the warm, dry spell as heavy rainfalls are closing in from both the west and north. Although Washington DC saw a record high of 33 C on Wednesday, cooler air is moving south towards southern Virginia now, and most of the eastern states will be cloudy with outbreaks of heavy rain and highs near 15 C today. This trends to chilly rain in the lower Great Lakes and Midwest in northeast winds, and then to snow in Wisconsin and central Michigan, which will spread east later.

Meanwhile, severe storms have calmed down somewhat in the Mississippi valley overnight and are expected to redevelop around Nashville to New Orleans, but perhaps not quite as intense today as yesterday in Arkansas. Further west, a cooler air mass is quickly modifying, which tends to weaken the front as it moves further east. Instead of today's 20-30 degree temperature drop, a gentle 5-10 degree drop will follow the weakening front today. A similar outbreak of severe storms will follow on the weekend in the central plains states.

The Rockies are under cloud and outbreaks of rain and snow, and the west coast is clear for the time being before a new frontal system arrives tonight.

My local weather on Wednesday started with heavy rain, then cleared up with strong westerly winds, highs near 13 C. Clear this evening and calm now.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 12 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Variable cloud, showers developing in light to moderate northeast winds. Rainfalls generally 2-5 mm. Highs 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some clearing around midnight, also some lingering fog and isolated brief showers, and lows about -1 to +3 C.

SATURDAY ... A dry start in the east, any morning sunshine brief as rain quickly developing from the west and spreading to east mid-day, as winds increase to southerly 40-70 km/hr. Very windy near Atlantic coast by afternoon and evening (SSW 70-100 km/hr). Rainfalls about 20 mm and highs about 14-16 C southeast, 12-14 C elsewhere.

SUNDAY ... Moderate to strong southwest winds, gusty at times (50-90 km/hr), showers or periods of rain, 5-15 mm, with some brief sunny breaks, morning lows 7-9 C and afternoon highs 13-15 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals to start, cloudy with rain developing later, southwest winds may become rather strong by late in the day, highs near 13.

TUESDAY ... Windy with periods of rain, highs near 13 C.

OUTLOOK ... Somewhat more settled later in the week, although more showers likely at times, highs 14-16 C ... a reasonable chance of even warmer weather developing by weekend 20th-21st and into the following week, potential for highs near 20 C.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Showers with some heavy downpours in the south at times, heaviest amounts 20-30 mm south-central England ... highs 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers ending, foggy at times, lows 3-5 C.

SATURDAY will become considerably warmer in southerly winds and partly cloudy skies, rain arriving late afternoon in west. Highs about 14-17 C.

SUNDAY will continue partly to mostly cloudy and rather warm with highs near 18 C in many places. Rain will sweep across western regions and Scotland, but it may remain dry in parts of eastern and southern England.

NEXT WEEK will follow about the same pattern as Ireland although it could be somewhat warmer in southeast England. It looks as though the long cold spell has finally been broken and there are no major indications of a return to anything worse than near normal or slightly below normal temperatures later this month. Highs near 22 C possible in about ten days' time.


Forecasts for North America

For the Masters golf tournament, morning downpours and strong winds could delay the second round, but it may clear up in time to get some if not all of the players finished by nightfall, with highs about 23 C. The weekend looks generally clear and warm with highs 20-23 C. It could start raining just about green jacket time (probably without thunder).

On the larger scale, bands of heavy rain will plod east to the coast today and a cold rain will replace sleet or snow in some parts of the Great Lakes and inland northeast as the wintry precip heads northeast into Quebec. Highs ahead of the front near the Atlantic coast will briefly touch 25 C again, then it will fall off into the 18-20 C range. The air mass now pushing east behind this front is greatly modified from the arctic blast that hit the plains states, in fact temperatures might not fall very much at all now. A new storm will push warm air back north in the plains states, leading to a somewhat similar (to last Tuesday) complex of severe weather by Sunday in that region, although not as widespread or severe. Rain, sleet or snow will move east across the northern plains and Canadian prairies.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny with a fresh breeze and a high near 12 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 13 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for occasional strong wind gusts tonight, Sunday and Monday night into Tuesday, and moderately heavy rainfalls over the period.

TODAY ... Any morning sunshine will be brief as cloud then rain quickly develop from the southwest, spreading across Munster by mid-day and other regions before mid-afternoon, as winds gradually increase to southerly 40-70 km/hr. Very windy near Atlantic coast by afternoon and evening (SSW 70-100 km/hr). Rainfalls about 20 mm today and overnight, with highs about 13-15 C southeast, 12-14 C elsewhere.

TONIGHT ... Rain tapering to showers, brisk south to southwest winds 40-70 km/hr easing slightly before dawn, lows 5-8 C.

SUNDAY ... Moderate to strong southwest winds, gusty at times (50-90 km/hr but 70-110 km/hr near Atlantic coasts), showers redeveloping with longer periods of rain, a further 5-15 mm, with brief brighter intervals mainly in Leinster, and highs 13-15 C. A burst of heavier showers likely in the evening when winds veer to westerly 40-70 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals to start, cloudy with rain developing later, southwest winds may become rather strong by late in the day, highs near 13.

MONDAY NIGHT into TUESDAY ... Windy (SW 60-100 km/hr) with periods of rain, overnight temperatures steady 7-9 C and highs 11 to 13 C. Rainfalls about 15 mm.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, highs 14-16 C.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY ... Generally unsettled but Friday (or thereabouts) could provide a day of more settled weather, before gusty winds and showers return on the weekend. Temperatures generally at or a little above normal in the mid teens by day.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The following week could be more settled but temperature trends are uncertain given a range in the guidance at present. There's some chance of relatively warm weather developing.

Forecasts for Britain


TODAY will become considerably warmer in southerly winds and partly cloudy skies, rain now pushing into southwest England arriving later in other western portions of England and most of Wales, spreading rapidly towards Scotland. Highs about 14-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Windy, mild, showers mainly west and north, lows 7-11 C.

SUNDAY will continue partly to mostly cloudy and rather warm with highs near 18 C in many places. Rain will sweep across western regions and Scotland, but it may remain dry in parts of eastern and southern England.

NEXT WEEK will follow about the same pattern as Ireland although it could be somewhat warmer in southeast England. It looks as though the long cold spell has finally been broken and there are no major indications of a return to anything worse than near normal or slightly below normal temperatures later this month. Highs near 22 C possible in about ten days' time.


Forecasts for North America

The weekend will be warm (22-25 C) and dry in most of the southeast until Sunday afternoon when rain will push north from the Gulf of Mexico. This could reach the site of the Masters golf tournament just before the final stages on Sunday evening. Meanwhile, a storm developing near Denver will pull in warmer air (24-28 C) from the south, and eventually showers and thunderstorms will develop mostly tomorrow in the central plains. These may become severe especially by Monday and Tuesday further east. The Great Lakes and northeast states will be cloudy, cool with drizzle or sleet, and temperatures near 4 C inland to 9 C on the coast. Meanwhile, to the north of the plains states low, freezing rain or sleet, northeast winds and highs 0-2 C trending to clear and cold further north over still snow-covered Canadian prairies (where unlike Ireland they have not broken out of unseasonable cold yet, that may be a week or two away). West coast is showery to rainy under slow-moving frontal systems.

My local weather on Friday was rather wet with a high near 12 C, foggy at times.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 14 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for strong winds later today in Connacht (local gusts to 110 km/hr) and again on Monday night, this time gusts over 100 km/hr will be felt more widely in the west and north.

TODAY ... Moderate to strong southwest winds increasing towards afternoon and peaking this evening (for most places 50-90 km/hr but 70-110 km/hr near Atlantic coasts), morning rain ending soon in the east, then a relatively dry period with showers redeveloping with longer periods of rain or thundershowers in western counties, a further 5-15 mm by midnight, with brief brighter intervals mainly in Leinster, and highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Windy (SW to W 70-110 km/hr in Connacht, 50-90 km/hr elsewhere), light rain tapering to drizzle then partial clearing before dawn, lows 6-8 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals to start, more frequent across the inland south, cloudy with rain developing later, southwest winds may become rather strong by late in the day, highs near 13.

MONDAY NIGHT into TUESDAY ... Windy (SW 60-100 km/hr) with periods of rain, overnight temperatures steady 7-9 C with rainfalls about 15 mm. Some stronger gusts to 115 km/hr near Donegal Bay. Winds easing rapidly during the day Tuesday, showers ending, some sunny intervals. Highs 11-13 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud becoming mostly overcast with periods of light rain or showers, lows 8-10 C and highs 12-15 C. Light to moderate southwest winds, some fog near south coast, misty inland.

THURSDAY ... Slightly cooler with showers and winds veering to northwest increasing to 40-60 km/hr. Lows 3-5 C and highs 8-11 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers ending, some sunshine, highs near 12 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny with increasing cloud, rain likely in west by afternoon or evening. Highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Windy with showers, highs near 14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The following week looks reasonably mild for the first half then colder towards the end of the month. Some showers are likely at times, the total precipitation should be about average.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will continue partly to mostly cloudy and rather warm with highs near 18 C in many places. Rain will sweep across western regions and Scotland, but it may remain dry in parts of eastern and southern England.

TONIGHT and MONDAY will be generally mild with occasional showers heavier in Scotland and Wales. Highs 13-15 C.

MONDAY NIGHT into TUESDAY will become very windy with periods of rain, some gusts to 120 km/hr from SW to W in exposed western and northern regions. Temperatures steady 8-11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland, generally warmer than recent weeks with near normal amounts of rainfall. Highs generally 14-17 C.


Forecasts for North America

The warm, dry spell will continue in most parts of the southeast but rain will develop near the Florida gulf coast and move north, some of this could be reaching the Masters location (Augusta, GA) by evening, then a downpour can be expected overnight in many places in the southeast. Warm and dry in Texas and Oklahoma, developing storms further north as a strong low near South Dakota brings a late-season snowstorm to the northern plains and southern Canadian prairies (15-30 cm expected). Further east, the remnants of the previous low are breaking up over Quebec and the weather is generally improving slowly as cloud begins to break across the Great Lakes and northeast, but it's still rather chilly at 5-7 C. West coast meanwhile is seeing further rain from a new frontal system moving inland.

My local weather on Saturday was cloudy with light rain at times, chilly with highs only 7-8 C and hail or snow reported on somewhat higher terrain in the vicinity.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 15 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for strong winds redeveloping late afternoon through the overnight hours, gusting to 120 km/hr in parts of west and north, 100 km/hr elsewhere ... peak gusts are expected between 9 p.m. and 3 a.m. Thunderstorms with hail are possible overnight especially in central and eastern counties.

TODAY ... There will be a few showers around in the north, with more developing from the Atlantic later this morning, but in general, it should be partly cloudy to sunny for most of the day, becoming mostly cloudy with rain developing late afternoon, as south to southwest winds become rather strong by late in the day, highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Windy (SW 60-100 km/hr for most, and 80-120 km/hr in exposed parts of west and north) with periods of rain or squally showers, risk of a brief thunderstorm in central and eastern counties, with overnight temperatures steady 7-9 C and rainfalls about 15 mm. Strongest gusts will be felt between about 9 p.m. and 3 a.m. and Galway Bay appears most exposed, so we're expecting a swath of very gusty winds from Galway across to Meath overnight. Further north, the winds may not increase as steadily due to proximity to the low but could develop more suddenly during the windshift, and there will be the usual issues with exposure due to local terrain, with wind directions veering from SSW to WSW. Don't be surprised if there's a tornado watch issued from Estofex or elsewhere, conditions may be marginally conducive for an isolated weak tornado with some of the shower cells that develop.

TUESDAY ... Gale force wind gusts easing rapidly during the morning, showers ending, some sunny intervals developing, but it will remain rather breezy once the stronger winds have departed, at about 40-60 km/hr from the WSW. Highs 11-13 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud becoming mostly overcast with periods of light rain or showers, lows 8-10 C and highs 12-15 C. Light to moderate southwest winds will increase to 50-80 km/hr by late in the day, peaking in the evening hours again, dissipating some persistent fog that is expected during the day near south coast, and the more misty conditions inland, but once again with the risk of a thunderstorm or squally wind gusts.

THURSDAY ... Slightly cooler with showers and winds veering to northwest increasing to 40-60 km/hr. Lows 3-5 C and highs 8-11 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers ending, some sunshine, highs near 12 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny with increasing cloud, showers possible in west and north by afternoon or evening. Highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, rather windy with some risk of showers mainly in the north, highs near 14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The following week looks reasonably mild for the first half then colder towards the end of the month. Some showers are likely at times, the total precipitation should be about average. Some models are suggesting quite warm temperatures around mid-week, but there's a spread in the guidance from about 14 to 20 C at this point. Later in the week the spread falls off to about 9 to 15 C.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will see a decrease in the shower activity for a time, with just isolated showers by mid-day, some sunshine, and highs 13-16 C. Cloud will be increasing from the west towards sunset in advance of very strong winds and squally showers reaching some western districts before midnight.

TONIGHT into TUESDAY will become very windy with periods of rain, some gusts to 120 km/hr from SW to W in exposed western and northern regions. Squally showers, thunder and hail likely in many places as a fast-moving front races east through the later overnight and morning hours. Temperatures steady 8-11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland, generally warmer than recent weeks with near normal amounts of rainfall. Highs generally 14-17 C.


Forecasts for North America

Rain ending across the southeast as the frontal wave moves out into the Atlantic, but some fog and drizzle left behind, highs around 19 C. Somewhat warmer than that in a wedge of clear skies ahead of a developing cold front with showers and some severe thunderstorms (around St Louis MO), the front extending from Michigan to Arkansas. Very warm (27-33 C) to the south where this front won't be active as a stationary then warm front, due to developments further west, where a storm is forming over the higher parts of northern Arizona and southern Utah. This will bring snow to the Colorado and Wyoming Rockies and the northern plains states, becoming heavier overnight and tomorrow. Briefly very warm across the southern parts of Arizona and New Mexico but becoming windy and turning much colder there with showers and mountain snows. Further north, improvements as the storm track shifts further south today, allowing a weak ridge to develop over parts of Washington state and British Columbia, with a mix of sun and cloud.

My local weather on Sunday was partly cloudy to overcast, with isolated showers, highs near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 16 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Strong wind gusts easing rapidly during the morning except near northwest and north coasts, showers ending in most regions, with some sunny intervals developing, but it will remain rather breezy once the stronger winds have departed, at about 40-60 km/hr from the WSW. Highs 11-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with rain developing, some heavier bursts across the inland south (10-20 mm), foggy at times, lows about 7 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Mostly overcast with periods of light rain or showers, and highs 12-15 C. Light to moderate southwest winds will increase to 50-80 km/hr by late in the day in most regions although possibly less gusty in and around Donegal, strong winds peaking in the evening hours again with the south coast seeing the strongest winds this time (gusts to 110 km/hr), dissipating some persistent fog that is expected during the day near south coast, and the more misty conditions inland, but with the risk of a thunderstorm (south, east). Rainfalls 10-20 mm during the day.

THURSDAY ... After a windy night with squally showers, the day will become slightly cooler with further showers, some with hail and thunder, and winds veering to northwest at about 40-60 km/hr. Morning lows 3-5 C and afternoon highs 8-11 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers ending or becoming weak and isolated in parts of north, some sunshine developing, morning lows near +1 C and highs near 12 C. Slight frosts in lower lying rural locations.

SATURDAY ... Sunny with increasing cloud, showers possible in west and north by afternoon or evening. Highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, rather windy with some risk of showers in most regions, but frequent mainly in the north, highs near 14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This remains valid: the following week looks reasonably mild to warm for the first half then colder towards the end of the month. Some showers are likely at times, the total precipitation should be about average. Some models are suggesting quite warm temperatures around mid-week, but there's a spread in the guidance from about 14 to 20 C at this point. Later in the week the spread falls off to about 9 to 15 C. The north would be more likely to see showers and cloud on most days in this pattern with a westerly flow aloft veering slowly to northwest.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY will become very windy with periods of rain, some gusts to 120 km/hr from SW to W in exposed western and northern regions, 80 km/hr more widely across central and southern regions. Squally showers, thunder and hail likely in many places as a fast-moving front races east through the morning hours, gradual improvements may develop by afternoon except in Scotland where it's likely to remain windy and unsettled all day. Highs 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, then cloud and showers turning to rain by morning in west, lows 3-5 C east and 5-8 C west.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... Windy with frequent showers, some with hail and thunder each day, highs about 12-15 C (a bit warmer in southeast England on Wednesday).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland, generally warmer than recent weeks with near normal amounts of rainfall, possibly even below average in some parts of the south. Highs generally 14-17 C but south could edge up towards 20 C at times.


Forecasts for North America

Wondering where the Greenland blocking high went? It decided to take up residence over north-central Canada for April, and it's forcing a continuation of winter in regions that should be seeing signs of spring by now, from Lake Superior west to the Rockies, snow remains on the ground (more falling overnight) and fears are rising of major snowmelt flooding in about two weeks in the Red River region (Manitoba, North Dakota). This cold spell continues through the next few days. Meanwhile, the west coast has been on the edge of this chilly regime and much closer to normal with the snow pack only found above 600m on the local mountains. Today will be partly cloudy and a bit on the cool side on the coast. Further south, a spring snowstorm is hitting portions of Utah, Colorado and Wyoming as it turns colder further south in strong northwest winds, some squally showers and risk of blowing dust in dry areas. It remains very warm or even hot across most of Texas and parts of Oklahoma, ahead of a developing line of severe storms in the central plains states that links to another complex of heavy storms in the Ohio valley that is left over from the weekend event that is now weaker and pushing east into southern Ontario with rain and fog across the lower Great Lakes and inland northeast. South of the fronts it will become very warm and humid today as the cloud from yesterday breaks up during the morning.

My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy, cool (high near 11 C) and there were brief showers that were slow-moving and drifting southeast, also some virga from weaker cells.

M.T. Cranium

FORECAST UPDATE _ Tues 16 April 2013 _ 8:30 p.m.
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ALERT for strong wind gusts and potential thunderstorms across Munster, Leinster tomorrow late afternoon and evening ... a sharp cold front will develop with upper level wind shear and strong surface gradients ... expect winds to increase steadily from SSW in these regions reaching peak intensity of about 70-110 km/hr around 6-8 p.m. in west Munster, 8-10 p.m. in Waterford and Kilkenny, and about 10 p.m. to midnight in Dublin. These timings will be updated in the morning forecast. Some squally showers or thunderstorms may develop ahead of the wind-shift and persist for some time beyond it, so the overnight period may remain quite unsettled. Temperatures during this wind event will be about 9-10 C with just a gradual fall to 5-7 C by Thursday morning. Further north, wind gusts may not be as strong but rainfall could be significant.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 17 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for strong winds this evening, gusts to 110 km/hr possible in Munster and Leinster between 6 p.m. in west and 3 a.m. in east. Gusts to about 100 km/hr possible in Connacht and Ulster overnight. There will also be a risk of squally showers with hail and thunder.

TODAY ... Periods of rain ending gradually this morning followed by partly cloudy to sunny skies in most regions although north remaining cloudy with light rain at times during the afternoon. Isolated heavy showers or thunderstorms will develop in Munster by afternoon, spreading to Leinster by early evening. Winds will increase to southerly 40-70 km/hr except for west Munster where those levels will be reached mid-day and 70-110 km/hr SSW veering WSW by late afternoon. Highs 13-15 C and it may feel quite warm especially in Leinster this afternoon. Today's rainfalls may reach 20 mm but in most cases a good fraction of that has already fallen before you read this.

TONIGHT ... Windy and sometimes squally with risk of thunderstorms and hail, winds veering SSW to WSW 80-110 km/hr then decreasing gradually towards morning. Lows 5-7 C. Further rainfalls of 10 mm in parts of north and west, lesser amounts in south and east.


THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, slightly cooler with further showers, some with hail and thunder, and winds veering to northwest late afternoon or evening, at about 40-60 km/hr and afternoon highs 8-11 C. Rainfalls 3-7 mm.

FRIDAY ... Showers ending or becoming weak and isolated in parts of north, some sunshine developing, morning lows near +1 C and highs near 12 C. Slight frosts in lower lying rural locations. Light to moderate northwest winds becoming variable, a fine evening likely under a ridge of high pressure.

SATURDAY ... The morning will be quite chilly with calm winds, clear skies in most places, and lows -2 to +3 C, however with the early sunrise time nowadays, the chill should be gone by about 0900h. The day will then be sunny with increasing cloud, showers 30% probable in west and north by afternoon or evening. Highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, rather windy with some risk of showers in most regions, but frequent mainly in the north, highs near 14 C. This may not be too bad a day for large sections of the central and southern counties but with some passing showers, more frequent to the north however.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Monday and Tuesday should be fairly warm days but it may remain mostly cloudy with coastal fog or drizzle, any chance for warmer sunshine would be greater near the east coast in a westerly wind flow. Highs should reach 14 C west to 18 C east. Wednesday to Friday could see just slight changes from that picture as winds veer just a little more to the northwest, and this may actually clear the air somewhat near the west coast while spreading more cloud and the slight risk of showers at times across the country, however, there should also be dry spells. Highs will be just a degree or two lower in the 13-17 C range. By the end of the week and month, the signals at present (two weeks away, keep in mind) point towards a colder and unsettled interval where highs may be pushed back towards 10 C.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Outbreaks of heavy rain in southern Scotland, northern England and north Wales, showery in some other places but rather warm and muggy in most of England in a southerly flow, highs 15-18 C trending to 12-14 C in central and northern Scotland.

TONIGHT ... Heavy showers, thunderstorms possible, winds increasing from southwest to reach 70-100 km/hr around or after midnight, lows 8-10 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy with frequent showers, some with hail and thunder, highs about 12-15 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland, generally warmer than recent weeks with near normal amounts of rainfall, possibly even below average in some parts of the south. Highs generally 14-17 C but south could edge up towards 20 C at times.


Forecasts for North America

The Great Lakes and inland northeast states are turning colder again with highs near 8 C, as a weakening front pushes as far south as Washington DC with light rain. It will stay warm and humid in the southeast, and large amounts of rain are likely in the central plains states and Midwest ahead of a developing front while further west and north, more snow is falling in states from Colorado to South Dakota. The Canadian prairies are still under arctic air and sub-freezing temperatures partly due to snow cover, but milder Pacific air has pushed some distance into Alberta and those regions will warm up today to near 10 C.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and pleasant with highs near 11 C.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Wed 17 April 2013 _ 5:15 p.m.
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The ALERT is maintained with peak gusts of 120 km/hr now expected in exposed locations near south coast and later in Dublin region, with the timing currently expected to be 6 to 9 p.m. for Cork (to see peak gusts), 7 to 10 p.m. for Waterford and inland southeast, and 10 p.m. to 3 a.m. for Dublin. The duration of severe gusts may increase as the wind-shift line moves northeast and in all cases the strong winds will only subside very gradually after the wind shift takes place. A bit further north, from about Galway to east Ulster, the peak gusts may be slightly less extreme (around 105 km/hr) but here again the duration may be fairly long, timing of peak gusts about 9-11 p.m. for Galway, around midnight in Athlone to Omagh and in Donegal, and after midnight towards 6 a.m. for Belfast.

There will be a few squally showers just ahead of the wind shift line and some of these could develop into thunderstorms. The westerly flow following the peak gusts will probably have frequent squally showers which may give the effect of a second peak in wind speeds in some locations if troughs become active in that flow -- this applies in particular to Connacht and west Ulster.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 18 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

The more severe gusts have moved away into parts of northern England, but it will remain blustery on a more normal scale today. The good news is that a period from Friday to the following Friday is looking reasonably settled and a bit warmer than normal. It won't be entirely dry although one or two locations could get through the week (following today) with very little rainfall.

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, slightly cooler with further showers, a few with hail and thunder, and blustery winds from WSW at 50-70 km/hr veering to northwest late afternoon or evening, at about 40-60 km/hr with afternoon highs 8-11 C. Further rainfalls 3-7 mm with heavier amounts in Connacht, Ulster and north Leinster, also parts of west Munster.

TONIGHT ... Breezy and quite chilly with passing showers becoming somewhat drizzly towards morning, winds NW 25-45 km/hr, and lows 2-4 C for most, isolated ground frost possible inland north.

FRIDAY ... Showers ending or becoming weak and isolated in parts of north, some sunshine developing, and highs near 12 C. Light to moderate northwest winds becoming variable, a fine evening likely under a ridge of high pressure.

SATURDAY ... The morning will be quite chilly with calm winds, clear skies in most places, and lows -2 to +3 C, however with the early sunrise time nowadays, the chill should be gone by about 0900h. The day will then be sunny with increasing cloud, showers 30% probable in west and north by afternoon or evening. Highs near 14 C except 11-13 C in Ulster.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, rather windy with some risk of showers in most regions, but more frequent in the north, highs 12 to 14 C. This may not be too bad a day for large sections of the central and southern counties but with some passing showers, but these will be more frequent to the north. One or two showers could become heavy in the midlands. Rainfalls in the 2-5 mm range.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Monday and Tuesday should be fairly warm days but it may remain mostly cloudy in the west with coastal fog or drizzle, any chance for warmer sunshine would be greater near the east coast in a moderate westerly wind flow. Highs should reach 14 C west and north to 18 C east and 16 C south and central ... Wednesday to Friday could see just slight changes from that picture as winds veer just a little more to the northwest, and this may actually clear the air somewhat near the west coast while spreading more cloud and the slight risk of showers at times across the country, however, there should also be dry spells, with Wed-Thurs now looking more settled than in past forecasts. Highs may be just a degree or two lower in the 13-17 C range but it could be as warm as 18 C in the southeast. By the end of the week and month, the signals at present (two weeks away, keep in mind) point towards a colder and unsettled interval where highs may be pushed back towards 10-12 C.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Windy with frequent showers, some with hail and thunder, highs about 12-15 C. Some severe gusts this morning in Yorkshire and east Midlands to 120 km/hr, otherwise closer to 80 km/hr further south. Slight improvements by afternoon but with more showers developing, some of them thundery.

TONIGHT ... Continued windy and unsettled, lows 6-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Gradually clearing with showers more isolated, sunny intervals developing, highs 12-14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland, generally warmer than recent weeks with near normal amounts of rainfall, possibly even below average in some parts of the south. Highs generally 14-17 C but south could edge up towards 20 C at times.


Forecasts for North America

A strong frontal system will edge further east today and another outbreak of heavy rainfall and (towards the south) severe storms will develop, from about Lake Huron in the north to Louisiana in the south. Colder air is flooding south but losing intensity as it crosses Oklahoma and Texas so that while western regions of those states will become almost wintry in low cloud and northerly winds, other regions will just see slight temperature falls to 18-21 C. East of the frontal boundary, temperatures will be generally as warm as 24-27 C almost to the Great Lakes, and 15-20 C in the lower lakes and northeast states. Meanwhile, the west remains fairly placid with a weak showery front moving inland in B.C., and the Canadian prairies and northern plains are generally stuck in winter with temperatures not much above freezing.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast but dry with highs near 9 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 19 April, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Showers ending or becoming weak and isolated in parts of north and west, some sunshine developing, then higher cloud moving back in with the chance for light showers or "virga" (where rain falls part of the way to the surface but evaporates) and highs near 12 C. Light to moderate northwest winds becoming variable, photographers note, you may have some very interesting skies around the sunset hour.

TONIGHT ... Cloud gradually breaking up to allow for some clear intervals and chilly temperatures before most people are out of bed, lows -2 to +3 C but around 7 C by 0800h.

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals with increasing cloud, showers 30% probable in west and north by afternoon or evening. Highs near 14 C except 11-13 C in Ulster.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, rather windy with some risk of showers in most regions, but more frequent in the north, highs 12 to 14 C. This may not be too bad a day for large sections of the central and southern counties but with some passing showers, but these will be more frequent to the north. One or two showers could become heavy in the midlands. Rainfalls in the 2-5 mm range.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, slight risk of showers west and north, rather warm with highs 15-17 C. Some low cloud or fog drifting in from Atlantic at times near west coast.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, relatively warm with highs 15-18 C (warmest in the east and southeast).

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, slight risk of showers developing, highs about 16 to 19 C (warmest in east).

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, chance of light rain developing in north, highs about 16 C south and 13 C north.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, becoming rather breezy and turning a bit cooler with highs near 14 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK (27th-28th) ... Mostly cloudy, some sunny intervals, rather cool with scattered showers, highs 9-12 C.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Gradually clearing with showers more isolated, sunny intervals developing, highs 12-14 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals developing after some cloud and light showers, lows 2-5 C but isolated frost in north-central England and inland Scotland.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland, generally warmer than recent weeks with near normal amounts of rainfall, possibly even below average in some parts of the south. Highs generally 14-17 C but south could edge up towards 20 C at times. Due to a westerly flow, the warmer locations will be in eastern counties.


Forecasts for North America

Showers and thunderstorms will make further progress east, reaching the Atlantic coast by tonight, but it will be hazy and warm for most of the day in the larger cities of the eastern seaboard, highs 18-23 C. Some of the rainfalls could become heavy in the Ohio valley, lower Great Lakes and inland northeast and there will be a few more heavy or severe storms in southern portions of this frontal system in the southeast states today. Further west, a cold northerly flow is rapidly modifying to more average April conditions but it remains chilly to cold in the northern plains and Canadian prairies.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with light rain at times, highs about 10 C.