Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 1 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and misty across some east coast regions with light drizzle at times, some sunny intervals developing further west where it could become quite mild (if and when the inversion breaks down), highs in east about 8 C but west 10 to 12 C and possibly milder in a few spots. Winds light and variable becoming E-NE 15-30 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals and colder than recent nights with more widespread frost and fog likely, lows about -2 C in some inland regions and otherwise about 2 C. Watch for patchy black ice or icy road conditions early Saturday.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, patchy light rain or drizzle developing near south and east coast but only slight accumulations less than 1 mm, afternoon highs 7-11 C milder in west and northwest.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, morning lows -1 to +1 C and afternoon highs about 7-9 C again, winds becoming somewhat stronger from the southeast at 20-40 km/hr by afternoon and evening.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, drizzle or fog and mist in south, slightly milder with east winds 25-40 km/hr, lows 2-5 C and highs 7-11 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain arriving in south, winds increasing to ESE 30-50 km/hr, foggy at times with highs about 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... This is likely to be a wet spell with moderately strong southeast to south winds at times, temperatures steady in the range of about 8-10 C. Some rainfalls of 20-40 mm could occur breaking the rather lengthy dry interval, but these may be heavier in the south and east.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Various hints of colder weather seem to have come and gone from the model runs for the time being and once this wet spell runs its course late next week, the next regime is likely to be another near-normal easterly flow.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Drizzle or light rain at times in the south, highs 8-10 C ... partly cloudy further north, chilly near the North Sea but milder in western regions in a very light east wind (variable in Scotland and northern England), highs about 7-9 C in northeast England to 10-12 C in Wales.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals developing, fog or ice fog in some valleys, cloudy in east and south with further drizzle or light rain, and lows -2 to +4 C except 4-7 C under cloud in south.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Dry and slightly colder than normal for several days Saturday to about Monday or Tuesday (north) then cloudy with rain and increasing southeast winds, sleet possible over higher terrain at times ... highs generally near 8-10 C most days for the next week or so, but could be as high as 14 C by late next week in the south.

Forecasts for North America

Heavy wet snow continues in eastern New England and parts of eastern Canada, rain moving into Nova Scotia and southern New Brunswick, but this storm is dying out and will move off the coast tonight. A cool, dry spell will continue further west with patchy remnants of cloud and leftover light snow dissipating and more sunshine breaking through in a developing north to northeast flow that is pulling down a sub-freezing air mass from the (frozen) Hudson Bay region. That will bring some lows of -10 C or lower in places over the recent snow cover (up to 30 cm fell in some parts of the Great Lakes region). Meanwhile, a very mild southwest flow with heavy rain is moving into the coastal regions between Portland and the Alaska panhandle, with 50-75 mm rainfalls possible around Vancouver and Seattle. Temperatures are warming up to about 12-14 C. There will be a severe avalanche risk across large parts of the western mountain ranges as freezing levels soar to near summit levels and rain falls on lower snow packs.

My local weather on Thursday was foggy with rain, heavy at times, and rising temperatures. It was still rather cold at 4 p.m. (7 C) then it jumped up to near 12 C after sunset where it remains now.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 2 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Early risers beware of black ice that may have formed in some parts of the inland east, central and south ... this should dissipate before too long but then mostly cloudy skies, with just a few brighter intervals, and even some patchy light rain or drizzle developing near south and east coast but only slight accumulations less than 1 mm, could make the day feel colder than the actual temperature which will reach afternoon highs of 7-11 C (milder readings likely to be in west and northwest).

TONIGHT ... Another partly cloudy to clear night with local frost, lows in the range of -3 to +2 C for most, and fog or mist developing towards midnight in many central districts, perhaps becoming rather thick before dawn. Drive with caution.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, morning lows -1 to +1 C and afternoon highs about 7-9 C again, winds becoming somewhat stronger from the southeast at 20-40 km/hr by afternoon and evening.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, drizzle or fog and mist in south, slightly milder with east winds 25-40 km/hr, lows 2-5 C and highs 7-11 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain arriving in south, winds increasing to ESE 30-50 km/hr, foggy at times with highs about 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... This is likely to be a wet spell with moderately strong southeast to south winds at times, temperatures steady in the range of about 8-10 C. Some rainfalls of 20-40 mm could occur breaking the rather lengthy dry interval, but these may be heavier in the south and east. Winds may reach speeds of 60 to 90 km/hr with one part of this complex disturbance around mid-week, from a southerly to southwesterly direction.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Various hints of colder weather seem to have come and gone from the model runs for the time being and once this wet spell runs its course late next week, the next regime is likely to be another near-normal easterly flow.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals in the north, some patchy drizzle in the south, east winds of 20-40 km/hr ... feeling quite cold near east coast but rather nondescript weather in general, highs 8-10 C.


FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Dry and slightly colder than normal for several days until about Monday or Tuesday (north) then cloudy with rain and increasing southeast winds, sleet possible over higher terrain at times ... highs generally near 8-10 C most days for the next week or so, but could be as high as 14 C by late next week in the south.

Forecasts for North America

Most of eastern regions will be colder than normal in a moderate northerly flow, with outbreaks of light snow near the southern shores of the Great Lakes but also a fair amount of sunshine, highs -2 to +3 C. This colder air mass will push south to cover the Gulf coast where it will be only about 10-13 C. Milder further west, especially desert southwest regions north towards Idaho which will all be quite warm in southerly winds ahead of a frontal system bringing heavy rain to the coast and some distance inland. Freezing levels will be very high and even the mountain passes will see rain and a thaw, leading to rapid snow melt in elevations between the alpine and the lower extent of the current snow pack (about 500m but rising rapidly as the snow pours down creeks as meltwater). Risk of widespread avalanches and slides in mountain areas and flooding in coastal valleys.

My local weather on Friday was a non-stop deluge that dropped over 100 mm of rain in a constant downpour, accompanied by thick fog and very mild temperatures of about 13-14 C. I don't live in a flood-prone area as such but the roads and sidewalks all have large ponding issues and you could drown in the roadspray if you aren't careful. Impacts are a lot worse in the mountains, but down near sea level we are fortunate that this heavy rain came after such a dry winter because the ground is able to soak in quite a bit, which might not be the case most years if this happened at the end of the winter season.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 2 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Early risers beware of black ice that may have formed in some parts of the inland east, central and south ... this should dissipate before too long but then mostly cloudy skies, with just a few brighter intervals, and even some patchy light rain or drizzle developing near south and east coast but only slight accumulations less than 1 mm, could make the day feel colder than the actual temperature which will reach afternoon highs of 7-11 C (milder readings likely to be in west and northwest).

TONIGHT ... Another partly cloudy to clear night with local frost, lows in the range of -3 to +2 C for most, and fog or mist developing towards midnight in many central districts, perhaps becoming rather thick before dawn. Drive with caution.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, morning lows -1 to +1 C and afternoon highs about 7-9 C again, winds becoming somewhat stronger from the southeast at 20-40 km/hr by afternoon and evening.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, drizzle or fog and mist in south, slightly milder with east winds 25-40 km/hr, lows 2-5 C and highs 7-11 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain arriving in south, winds increasing to ESE 30-50 km/hr, foggy at times with highs about 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... This is likely to be a wet spell with moderately strong southeast to south winds at times, temperatures steady in the range of about 8-10 C. Some rainfalls of 20-40 mm could occur breaking the rather lengthy dry interval, but these may be heavier in the south and east. Winds may reach speeds of 60 to 90 km/hr with one part of this complex disturbance around mid-week, from a southerly to southwesterly direction.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Various hints of colder weather seem to have come and gone from the model runs for the time being and once this wet spell runs its course late next week, the next regime is likely to be another near-normal easterly flow.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals in the north, some patchy drizzle in the south, east winds of 20-40 km/hr ... feeling quite cold near east coast but rather nondescript weather in general, highs 8-10 C.


FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Dry and slightly colder than normal for several days until about Monday or Tuesday (north) then cloudy with rain and increasing southeast winds, sleet possible over higher terrain at times ... highs generally near 8-10 C most days for the next week or so, but could be as high as 14 C by late next week in the south.

Forecasts for North America

Most of eastern regions will be colder than normal in a moderate northerly flow, with outbreaks of light snow near the southern shores of the Great Lakes but also a fair amount of sunshine, highs -2 to +3 C. This colder air mass will push south to cover the Gulf coast where it will be only about 10-13 C. Milder further west, especially desert southwest regions north towards Idaho which will all be quite warm in southerly winds ahead of a frontal system bringing heavy rain to the coast and some distance inland. Freezing levels will be very high and even the mountain passes will see rain and a thaw, leading to rapid snow melt in elevations between the alpine and the lower extent of the current snow pack (about 500m but rising rapidly as the snow pours down creeks as meltwater). Risk of widespread avalanches and slides in mountain areas and flooding in coastal valleys.

My local weather on Friday was a non-stop deluge that dropped over 100 mm of rain in a constant downpour, accompanied by thick fog and very mild temperatures of about 13-14 C. I don't live in a flood-prone area as such but the roads and sidewalks all have large ponding issues and you could drown in the roadspray if you aren't careful. Impacts are a lot worse in the mountains, but down near sea level we are fortunate that this heavy rain came after such a dry winter because the ground is able to soak in quite a bit, which might not be the case most years if this happened at the end of the winter season.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 3 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERTS ... Some heavy rainfalls may develop mid-week, 20-40 mm potential in west and south ... also, we're tracking a possible return to wintry weather the following week (10th to 15th) as most model guidance indicates a very cold easterly flow developing once the rainfall event begins to lose energy next weekend. We're in a "wait and see" situation with this but the model consensus is strong this morning.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, afternoon highs about 7-9 C, winds becoming somewhat stronger from the southeast at 20-40 km/hr by afternoon and evening. Patchy drizzle near south coast.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with mist or fog, drizzle near south coast, lows 2-4 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, drizzle or fog and mist in south, slightly milder with east winds 25-40 km/hr, lows 2-5 C and highs 7-11 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain arriving in south, winds increasing to ESE 30-50 km/hr, foggy at times with highs about 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... This is likely to be a wet spell with moderately strong southeast to south winds at times, temperatures steady in the range of about 8-10 C. Some rainfalls of 20-40 mm could occur breaking the rather lengthy dry interval, but these may be heavier in the south and east. Winds may reach speeds of 60 to 90 km/hr with one part of this complex disturbance around mid-week, from a southerly to southwesterly direction.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The model consensus has swung back to colder weather arriving around Sunday 10th and lasting about a week. This outbreak looks quite wintry on the current guidance so winter may not be finished with Ireland yet, but we're at a time interval where this scenario could disappear before it makes it into "reliable time" which is more like 4-5 days for an easterly ... after the season we've had, I think the spoiler could be a last-minute weakening of the cold push and enough lingering influence from the milder air masses to make this a cool rather than cold spell. However, all possibilities are in play including more severe cold and even snow depending on which guidance verifies.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... About the same as yesterday, so we can repeat this one ... cloudy with a few brighter intervals in the north, some patchy drizzle in the south, east winds of 20-40 km/hr ... feeling quite cold near east coast but rather nondescript weather in general, some longer sunny intervals in northern England and western Scotland, highs 8-10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Dry and slightly colder than normal for several days until about Monday or Tuesday (north) then cloudy with rain and increasing southeast winds, sleet possible over higher terrain at times ... highs generally near 8-10 C most days for the next week or so, but could be as high as 14 C by late next week in the south. After that, the colder easterly spell discussed above could be rushing into the region bringing temperatures down to or below freezing, by about Sunday-Monday 10th-11th.

Forecasts for North America

Snow will be heavy at times in Alberta and northern Montana as the west coast dries out from recent heavy rains. Very warm air is being drawn north by this storm and will cover most of the southwest, south central and central plains states with temperatures soaring to 20-25 C or higher. The Midwest, Great Lakes, mid-Atlantic states and even the southeast are in a much cooler air mass that has its source in Canada's eastern arctic (and that is also feeding the Greenland high developing during the week). This air mass is not moving because the storm from last week that dropped heavy snow in the Great Lakes and New England is now stalled south of Newfoundland and a mild easterly flow is pushing into Quebec then mixing with the colder, drier arctic air around Ontario and New York state, giving them a lot of cloud and slightly colder than average temperatures with drizzle or snow grains. That gradually turns more to partly cloudy weather in the western Great Lakes and towards the Virginia-North Carolina region as the air mass slowly modifies in the strong March sunshine. Florida is in the same air mass but it's about 15 to 18 C there.

My local weather continued rather wet in the morning then some clearing developed late in the day and temperatures have been gradually falling from a morning high near 12 C to current 3-5 C readings.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 4 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERTS ...The most recent guidance has somewhat downgraded both of these potentials, but we'll keep them around until a more definitive answer is available. ... Some heavy rainfalls may develop mid-week, 20-40 mm potential in west and south ... also, we're tracking a possible return to wintry weather the following week (10th to 15th) as model guidance indicates a very cold easterly flow lurking dangerously close to the remnants of the low pressure after the rainfall event begins to lose energy next weekend. We're in a "wait and see" situation with this and the most likely outcome for the cold would be below normal but above freezing with cold rain or sleet and only a slight risk of snow, but this could still change.

TODAY ... Cloudy, drizzle or fog and mist in south, slightly milder with east to southeast winds 25-40 km/hr, lows 2-5 C and highs 7-11 C, mildest in west Munster and coastal Connacht.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals, fog or mist developing, drizzle in south by morning, lows about 3-5 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain arriving in south, winds increasing to ESE 30-50 km/hr, foggy at times with highs about 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... This is likely to be a wet spell with moderately strong southeast to south winds at times, temperatures steady in the range of about 8-10 C. Some rainfalls of 20-40 mm could occur breaking the rather lengthy dry interval, but these may be heavier in the south and east. Winds may reach speeds of 60 to 90 km/hr with one part of this complex disturbance around mid-week, from a southerly to southwesterly direction.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... After yesterday's strong flirtation with colder weather arriving around Sunday 10th and lasting about a week, the current guidance is more indecisive with colder air seeping into the remnants of the forthcoming wet spell around next weekend. This outbreak now looks less wintry on the current guidance but winter may not be finished with Ireland yet, although as I said yesterday, we're at a time interval where this scenario could disappear before it makes it into "reliable time" which is more like 4-5 days for an easterly ... after the season we've had, I think the spoiler could be a last-minute weakening of the cold push and enough lingering influence from the milder air masses to make this a cool rather than cold spell. However, all possibilities are in play including more severe cold and even snow depending on which guidance verifies. If the current model runs are taken at face value, the conditions by Sunday-Monday would be cold with sleet or light rain and highs 4-6 C. There could be snow on higher hills in the north. That's how close the wintry potential is at this stage.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with moderate southeast winds, highs about 8-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, drizzle or fog developing, lows 3-5 C.

TUES-WED ... Outbreaks of light rain in southwest, gradually spreading further north, but remaining largely dry in east and north until Wednesday afternoon or evening.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Cloudy with rain and increasing southeast winds, sleet possible over higher terrain at times ... highs generally near 8-10 C most days for the next week or so, but could be as high as 14 C by late next week in the south. After that, the colder easterly spell discussed above could be pushing into the region bringing temperatures down to about 5 C in the south and 2-4 C north, with some nights below freezing, by about Sunday-Monday 10th-11th. Northern and eastern Scotland could see snow and northern England and southeast Scotland could see mixed wintry precip or sleet.


Forecasts for North America

Snow is spreading southeast from Alberta and eastern Montana across parts of SK, ND, SD and eventually will reach the Midwest by later today. This storm will slow down, develop a second centre that will take over the circulation, and drop heavy amounts of snow around Chicago in the next few days. By mid-week it will be heading for the New Jersey coast and spreading sleet or snow into parts of the northeast states but for today those regions remain largely dry if rather cloudy. The southeast will be partly cloudy and chilly (8-12 C to about 19 C in south Florida). The south central, southwest and central plains states will remain in a mild to warm air mass that is gradually clouding up with outbreaks of rain likely by tonight in parts of Texas but heavier rain will develop a bit further east towards the Mississippi valley on Tuesday. That will eventually move across the southeast mid-week.

My local weather was sunny and near 8 C on Sunday, with a cold breeze but otherwise quite pleasant after the heavy rainfalls. The winter was so dry that the ground has already soaked most of that moisture in, but the water table looks fully replenished now. Hills around here are snow-covered above 800m but have lost their lower snow cover in the rainstorm.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 4 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERTS ...The most recent guidance has somewhat downgraded both of these potentials, but we'll keep them around until a more definitive answer is available. ... Some heavy rainfalls may develop mid-week, 20-40 mm potential in west and south ... also, we're tracking a possible return to wintry weather the following week (10th to 15th) as model guidance indicates a very cold easterly flow lurking dangerously close to the remnants of the low pressure after the rainfall event begins to lose energy next weekend. We're in a "wait and see" situation with this and the most likely outcome for the cold would be below normal but above freezing with cold rain or sleet and only a slight risk of snow, but this could still change.

TODAY ... Cloudy, drizzle or fog and mist in south, slightly milder with east to southeast winds 25-40 km/hr, lows 2-5 C and highs 7-11 C, mildest in west Munster and coastal Connacht.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals, fog or mist developing, drizzle in south by morning, lows about 3-5 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain arriving in south, winds increasing to ESE 30-50 km/hr, foggy at times with highs about 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... This is likely to be a wet spell with moderately strong southeast to south winds at times, temperatures steady in the range of about 8-10 C. Some rainfalls of 20-40 mm could occur breaking the rather lengthy dry interval, but these may be heavier in the south and east. Winds may reach speeds of 60 to 90 km/hr with one part of this complex disturbance around mid-week, from a southerly to southwesterly direction.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... After yesterday's strong flirtation with colder weather arriving around Sunday 10th and lasting about a week, the current guidance is more indecisive with colder air seeping into the remnants of the forthcoming wet spell around next weekend. This outbreak now looks less wintry on the current guidance but winter may not be finished with Ireland yet, although as I said yesterday, we're at a time interval where this scenario could disappear before it makes it into "reliable time" which is more like 4-5 days for an easterly ... after the season we've had, I think the spoiler could be a last-minute weakening of the cold push and enough lingering influence from the milder air masses to make this a cool rather than cold spell. However, all possibilities are in play including more severe cold and even snow depending on which guidance verifies. If the current model runs are taken at face value, the conditions by Sunday-Monday would be cold with sleet or light rain and highs 4-6 C. There could be snow on higher hills in the north. That's how close the wintry potential is at this stage.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with moderate southeast winds, highs about 8-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, drizzle or fog developing, lows 3-5 C.

TUES-WED ... Outbreaks of light rain in southwest, gradually spreading further north, but remaining largely dry in east and north until Wednesday afternoon or evening.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Cloudy with rain and increasing southeast winds, sleet possible over higher terrain at times ... highs generally near 8-10 C most days for the next week or so, but could be as high as 14 C by late next week in the south. After that, the colder easterly spell discussed above could be pushing into the region bringing temperatures down to about 5 C in the south and 2-4 C north, with some nights below freezing, by about Sunday-Monday 10th-11th. Northern and eastern Scotland could see snow and northern England and southeast Scotland could see mixed wintry precip or sleet.


Forecasts for North America

Snow is spreading southeast from Alberta and eastern Montana across parts of SK, ND, SD and eventually will reach the Midwest by later today. This storm will slow down, develop a second centre that will take over the circulation, and drop heavy amounts of snow around Chicago in the next few days. By mid-week it will be heading for the New Jersey coast and spreading sleet or snow into parts of the northeast states but for today those regions remain largely dry if rather cloudy. The southeast will be partly cloudy and chilly (8-12 C to about 19 C in south Florida). The south central, southwest and central plains states will remain in a mild to warm air mass that is gradually clouding up with outbreaks of rain likely by tonight in parts of Texas but heavier rain will develop a bit further east towards the Mississippi valley on Tuesday. That will eventually move across the southeast mid-week.

My local weather was sunny and near 8 C on Sunday, with a cold breeze but otherwise quite pleasant after the heavy rainfalls. The winter was so dry that the ground has already soaked most of that moisture in, but the water table looks fully replenished now. Hills around here are snow-covered above 800m but have lost their lower snow cover in the rainstorm.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 5 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT for the risk of significant cold spell with possible snow mainly for the east coast and northern counties, starting on the weekend and lasting to mid-week. Confidence is about 60% at present.

TODAY ... Any frost or fog should dissipate soon after daybreak, then a milder southeast flow will develop and temperatures should push up above 10 C peaking around 13 C late afternoon. Some light rain is likely in south spreading towards Connacht later. Amounts generally 2-5 mm in moderate southeast winds 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Fog patches, drizzle, milder than previous nights, lows about 3 to 7 C mildest in west Munster and coastal Connacht.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, moderate E-SE winds, highs near 10 or 11 C. Rainfalls 5-10 mm.

THURSDAY ... Periods of rain, mild, moderate SE winds. Lows 5-8 C and highs about 11-12 C, with 10-15 mm rain.

FRIDAY ... Showers, mild, becoming foggy as winds back more to east, rain or drizzle at times, lows near 6 C and highs 9-11 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy, turning a bit colder, some showers with fog or drizzle in east, a few brighter intervals for west, lows near 4 C and highs near 7 C. Moderate east winds feeling raw, 30-50 km/hr with higher gusts.

SUNDAY ... At this rather distant stage, the model consensus points to cold and unsettled with risk of snow or sleet developing, but also a cold rain quite possible especially at lower elevations of south. Moderate to strong east winds may develop (50-70 km/hr). Temperatures most likely 3-5 C but could be even colder.

OUTLOOK ... Monday and Tuesday could see a return to wintry weather and some outbreaks of snow or sleet, as stated in the advance alert, this has about a 60% confidence level from model consensus tempered by the time ahead plus the history of near misses this winter (perhaps weak solutions would be a better phrase than near misses). As usual, the greater chance of wintry precipitation would likely be in the east and north. Beyond mid-week it seems likely to become more seasonable as the cold outbreak drains away towards the south and allows the Atlantic to return.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Foggy and cold to start, then a bit milder with outbreaks of drizzle or light rain in south, some sunshine developing further north. Highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, fog patches, a bit milder, lows 2-5 C.

OUTLOOK ... From Wednesday on, the forecast would be very similar to Ireland except that by Sunday there is a more definite chance of snow in eastern England and much of Scotland in a very cold northeast flow. Temperatures there could fall below freezing and there could be some heavy snowfalls. The cold spell would be somewhat less severe in Wales and the southwest with more sunshine during the days.

Forecasts for North America

A slow-moving but intensifying storm that is partly the remnants of the rainstorm I reported on the west coast last Friday, is now taking shape over the plains states, as snow ends across the Canadian prairies and North Dakota where 15-35 cm have fallen. Those regions will be windy and cold today, but the snow will now develop across large parts of the Midwest with heaviest amounts just south and west of Chicago (20-40 cm). Rain will spread northeast from Louisiana into Tennessee, parts of Kentucky and southern Illinois-Indiana with sleet and freezing rain between the rain and snow.

This storm will move to the east coast by late tonight and Wednesday and bring a rain-snow mix to Washington DC, snow further north and west that could be heavy over the hills. The storm will bring a brief risk of severe storms to the southeast later today but may be more gusty wind and heavy rain rather than tornados or thunderstorms. Florida could see a few severe storms when the cold front rushes through later. The northeast, meanwhile, is cold and dry today and may see 5-10 cm of snow from the margins of the storm as it moves east well to the south of Long Island on Wednesday. Parts of the Great Lakes especially Michigan and Ontario may stay dry as the storm brushes by to their south tonight. West Virginia will see the heaviest snow with 30-50 cm amounts possible.

Meanwhile the southwest will be warm and dry as a weak front moves inland across California with some showers, and further north, dry weather will give way to rain and strong southerly winds.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy with a few sunny intervals, and chilly at about 6 C. Rain is expected by morning.

Sorry about the double posts, I am only posting once but somehow the program is picking up a second post almost every day.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 6 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT for the risk of significant cold spell with possible snow mainly for the east coast and northern counties, starting on the weekend and lasting to mid-week. Confidence is about 70% at this time, since the models seem to be locking into this solution -- and a storm coming out of the eastern U.S. is clearly about to dive southeast under the blocking pattern ... the main question now is whether the cold will be severe or just "nuisance" variety and that may vary from region to region.

TODAY ... Variable cloud, showers mainly central to northwestern counties, moderate E-SE winds 30-60 km/hr, highs near 10 or 11 C but could reach 13 in west Munster. Rainfalls 5-10 mm.

THURSDAY ... Periods of rain, mild, moderate SE winds. Lows 5-8 C and highs about 11-12 C, with 10-15 mm rain.

FRIDAY ... Showers, mild, becoming foggy as winds back more to east, rain or drizzle at times, lows near 6 C and highs 9-11 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy, turning a bit colder, some showers with fog or drizzle in east, a few brighter intervals for west, lows near 4 C and highs near 7 C. Moderate east winds feeling raw, 30-50 km/hr with higher gusts.

SUNDAY ... The guidance continues to indicate cold and unsettled conditions with risk of snow or sleet developing later in the day, with a cold rain quite likely to start, especially at lower elevations of south and east. Moderate to strong east winds may develop (50-70 km/hr). Temperatures most likely steady 4-6 C then falling to about 2 C, but it could be even colder in the east by evening.

OUTLOOK ... Monday and Tuesday could see a return to wintry weather and some outbreaks of snow or sleet, as stated in the advance alert, this now has about a 70% confidence level from model consensus. As usual, the greater chance of wintry precipitation would likely be in the east and north. There are now indications of this cold spell reloading later in the week after a very slight rise in temperatures mid-week (leading to mixed wintry showers rather than snow in east, and hail or rain showers in west and south for a time). The current maps support the idea of accumulating snow in the Dublin region on Monday as upper temperatures and atmospheric "thickness" parameters are on the favourable side of marginal for a change. We will be keeping a close eye on this, of course, and speculating about amounts or intensity closer to the time (some heavy snow would be possible, too early to say what locations are most favoured except that it would no doubt be close to Dublin and Wicklow).

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, relatively mild, moderate SE winds and some outbreaks of showery rain ... highs 11-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, fog patches, showers and rather mild, lows 4-7 C.

OUTLOOK ... From Thursday on, the forecast would be very similar to Ireland except that by Sunday there is a more definite chance of snow in eastern England and much of Scotland in a very cold northeast flow. Temperatures there could fall below freezing and there could be some heavy snowfalls. The cold spell would be somewhat less severe in Wales and the southwest with more sunshine during the days. Highs about 1-4 C in this cold spell and some overnight lows to -5 C. Little warming is foreseen during the week although a weak system could bring temperatures up very slightly mid-week and that could change the regional distribution of rain, hail and snow before a re-set of the colder conditions.

Forecasts for North America

Snow, sleet and coastal rain are likely in the eastern states today, and some heavy snowfalls of 20-40 cm could develop just to the west and north of Washington DC where it may mix with sleet. The outlook is somewhat tricky for New England as the storm is heading due east from the Delaware coast later today and only its outer 3-5 cm snow bands might reach most of New England, 5-15 cm in Long Island, southeast MA and perhaps Boston and NYC. Meanwhile, cold and dry over the fresh snow (15-25 cm fell on Tuesday) around Chicago and also over bare ground in Michigan and Ontario (some leftover snow from weeks ago but nothing much on Tuesday there).

The southeast states will be clearing and a bit cooler than normal although the wind will be the main factor (NW 50-80 km/hr in most places). Warmer in the south central states as very warm air from Mexico and the southwest U.S. streams in ahead of a frontal system that may bring rain or mountain snow to the Great Basin region (that's basically NV/UT, s ID and e OR). A weak front hitting the west coast is bringing rather light rain and moderate SE winds. Then heading further east, it's clear and very cold across most of inland western Canada.

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with light rain developing, only about 2 or 3 mm so far. Highs are near normal at 9 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 7 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT for much colder weather arriving Sunday afternoon (north) or overnight (south) into Monday, with a risk of snow and blowing snow developing at some point Sunday night and/or Monday. The rest of the week will then stay quite cold and there could be a few further outbreaks of light snow, and the spell may even continue to the 17th.

TODAY ... Mild with rain at times, one wave moving through north-central regions this morning and a second wave arriving soon in the south and moving gradually north across most of the country later this afternoon ... rainfalls of 10-20 mm on average, some heavier downpours in a few spots ... highs 11-13 C. Winds ESE 35-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Foggy, mild, drizzle or light rain, lows 6-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers, mild, misty or foggy as winds back more to east 30-50 km/hr, rain or drizzle at times, highs 9-11 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy, turning a bit colder, some showers with fog or drizzle in east, a few brighter intervals for west, lows near 4 C and highs near 7 C. Moderate east winds feeling raw, 30-50 km/hr with higher gusts.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, some sleety outbreaks of light rain in south, sleet turning to wet snow in north, with risk of accumulating snow later in the day (mainly for east Ulster at this stage), accompanied by raw, moderate to strong east winds (50-70 km/hr). Temperatures most likely steady 4-6 C then falling to about 2 C, but it could be even colder in the north and east by evening.

SUNDAY NIGHT into MONDAY ... Bitterly cold with strong northeast winds 40-70 km/hr and some higher gusts near Irish Sea, outbreaks of snow and blowing snow may develop in parts of east Ulster, Leinster and some flurries may reach further west into Connacht and east to central Munster. Towards evening there may be snow near the south coast also, as the best conditions for producing snow will likely continue to move south across the country (the snow will actually be moving west but the process is moving south).

Chances of snow are about 70% for east Ulster and Leinster, 40% for south coast and Donegal, north Mayo, and 20% for midwest and Atlantic coasts. Most likely amounts peak at about 10-20 cm higher parts of Dublin and Wicklow, 5-10 cm Dublin-Meath and east Ulster as well as coastal Wicklow, and 3-5 cm further inland and south coast. Confidence on these amounts is moderate, there could be more, and there could be less. This appears to be a somewhat volatile situation with an unusually cold regime in the lower reaches of the atmosphere for any time of year, regardless of calendar date.

Temperatures may fall as low as -2 C and recover only slightly during the day to about 1-3 C, despite any sun that manages to break through. The change will be abrupt and could lead to icy road conditions especially where snow falls.

MONDAY NIGHT ... Clearing and very cold, some remnant snow flurries dying out near east coast but developing in some parts of Connacht and north Ulster as winds back to N 30-50 km/hr. Some severe frosts likely with lows -5 to -2 C except a bit milder where winds blow in from the sea.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals south, partly to mostly cloudy north with isolated snow 2-4 cm, cold or very cold with highs 2-5 C.

OUTLOOK ... Mostly dry and cold for the mid-week period, some flurries or mixed wintry showers in weak troughs but not expected to be too heavy except possible in north, lows in the range -5 to -2 C and highs 2-5 C. Towards the following weekend, a frontal system (that develops out of remnants of the east coast U.S. storm now in the western Atlantic) could bring a sleety mixed fall of rain and snow to the south and there's even some chance of a snowfall in some higher areas. Any return to milder weather looks about ten days to two weeks distant at this point.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Rain or drizzle, mild, foggy. Highs near 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Fog and drizzle, lows 6-8 C.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... Turning colder in stages from north to south, brisk east winds and rain or drizzle becoming showery and then sleety with a burst of heavier snow developing in eastern Scotland by Saturday night. This will spread further south during the night.

SUNDAY-MONDAY ... Windy and bitterly cold with outbreaks of heavy snow likely in east, some wintry sun in west, temperatures not far from -2 C night and day but somewhat milder readings close to North Sea. Winds E-NE about 50-80 km/hr although 30-50 km/hr inland south.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Very cold, some additional snow in various regions as winds become more northerly but variable at times, mostly dry and very cold. Lows in the range -7 to -2 C, highs -1 to +4 C.

Forecasts for North America

Mixed rain and snow in parts of the northeast states although most of the storm is now out over the Atlantic. Light snow or drizzle in a separate weak disturbance drifting west across the lower Great Lakes, but otherwise most eastern states to the west of the coastal storm will be dry and cool (2-5 C). Sunny and milder in the southeast ahead of very warm air spreading north from the Gulf of Mexico, so far no organized frontal rains but these may develop later tonight or Friday. Cloudy near west coast, rain moving slowly inland. It continues to be dry and very cold across the prairies.

My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy with light rain (2-4 mm) and highs of about 8 C.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Thursday 7 March 2013 _ 1930h
_______________________________________

There has been a slight upgrade in the model consensus for the potential of significant snowfalls Sunday night and Monday and the chances are probably at least 70% for accumulations (in the range of 5-15 cm mainly) over large parts of Ulster and Leinster, accompanied by gusty northeast winds in the range of 50-80 km/hr and bitterly cold temperatures falling to about -1 C.

This could even produce blizzards in some areas, including Meath, Dublin and Wicklow.

The chances for the south coast are also fairly high and part of the potential there would be interaction between the cold air mass and the low off to the south, but also the activity from Leinster could spill over into parts of Munster as the winds will be strong enough to advect the snow possibly as far as Limerick to Cork, more definitely as far as Tipps and Waterford.

The northwest is also included in the snow-watch as wind directions there will be fairly close to an ideal NNE by later Monday especially, so in fact the only regions less likely to see snow would probably be around Galway Bay and Kerry-coastal Clare. And these areas could see passing snow showers by Tuesday as winds come around to a more favourable (for them) NW direction.

The rest of the week then looks more settled and continuing rather cold although the days will warm up somewhat under the strong March sun to values around 5-7 C. The following weekend still looks cold and wet with the potential for rain to turn to snow as a reinforcement of arctic air begins to develop during the passage of the storm system currently affecting New England but centered well off to the south (almost due north of Bermuda now). That situation is far from settled at this stage and if the colder air "digs in" during the week to come, that storm might have a hard time lifting enough warm air to change the temperature enough to prevent another snowfall, but in the meantime, I have growing confidence in the outlook for a near-blizzard situation developing Sunday night and persisting through most of Monday, with the focus of heaviest snow likely to shift south during the day although it may begin with two separate events in east Ulster and south coast then begin to merge the two, so those details are yet to be totally worked out.

We should stress the volatile nature of the situation as much colder air will be rushing into the region and this is a more explosive pattern than anything seen earlier in the recent winter season. There could be thunder with some of the hail and snow during the transition later Sunday and a continuing potential for thunder-snow in streamers on Monday. However, there will likely be breaks between bursts of snow and even some bright sunshine at times on Monday. Travel may become difficult in Leinster and Ulster as well as some parts of the south. The impacts will likely be less severe in the west but it will become bitterly cold everywhere -- even the normally temperate outer coasts of Kerry could see a bit of snow from this.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 8 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT for much colder weather arriving Sunday afternoon (north) or overnight (south) into Monday, with a risk of snow and blowing snow developing at some point Sunday night and/or Monday. There is potential for a blizzard-like snowstorm developing over portions of the east and south as sea effect streamers merge with a shield of snow associated with deep low pressure heading for northern France. The rest of the week will then stay quite cold and there could be a few further outbreaks of light snow, and the spell may even continue to the 17th.

TODAY ... Showers, possibly with a rumble of thunder this morning, mild, misty or foggy as winds back more to east 30-50 km/hr, rain or drizzle continuing at times in north, becoming partly cloudy in south, highs 9-12 C. Rainfalls 10-15 mm.

TONIGHT ... Foggy and mild with showers or periods of light rain, lows 4-6 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy, turning a bit colder especially in north, some showers or light rain, with fog or drizzle in east, a few brighter intervals for west, and highs near 7 in north, 9-10 C in south. Moderate east winds feeling raw, 30-50 km/hr with higher gusts developing late in the day.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, some sleety outbreaks of light rain in south, sleet turning to wet snow in north, with risk of accumulating snow later in the day (mainly for east Ulster at this stage), accompanied by raw, moderate to strong east winds (50-70 km/hr). Temperatures most likely steady 4-6 C then falling to about 2 C, but it could be even colder in the north and east by evening. Heavy snow could develop across the south by evening in near-blizzard conditions with NE winds increasing to 55-90 km/hr (rain on outer south coast).

SUNDAY NIGHT ... Bitterly cold with strong northeast winds 50-90 km/hr and some higher gusts near Irish Sea, outbreaks of snow and blowing snow may develop in parts of east Ulster, Leinster and some flurries may reach further west into Connacht and east to central Munster. A blizzard-like snowstorm is possible across the south, merging by early morning with Leinster snow streamers. Snow also in parts of east Ulster. Amounts variable but potential for 10-20 cm. Temperatures falling to -1 C and wind chills -7 to -15 C.

MONDAY ... Windy and bitterly cold with further snow, becoming more dominated by streamers as the south coast snow may pull away to the east-southeast, but details may change closer to event ... some of the streamers could become very heavy with local bursts of 5-10 cm snowfalls and isolated 15-30 cm falls with thunder-snow, also some hail showers embedded. Some wintry sunshine at times mainly in the west, but passing snow flurries even there. Highs about +1 C but feeling like -6 to -15 C in the strong winds. If snow accumulates, blowing and drifting will follow and could lead to some travel problems and even road closures.

Chances of snow are about 80% for east Ulster and Leinster, 70% for south coast and Donegal, 50% for north Mayo, and 30% for midwest and Atlantic coasts. Most likely amounts peak at about 15-35 cm higher parts of Dublin and Wicklow, 5-15 cm Dublin-Meath and east Ulster as well as coastal Wicklow, and 3-7 cm further inland and inland south. Confidence on these amounts is moderate, there could be more, and there could be less. This appears to be a highly volatile situation with an unusually cold regime in the lower reaches of the atmosphere for any time of year, regardless of calendar date.

Temperatures may fall as low as -2 C and recover only slightly during the day to about 1-3 C, despite any sun that manages to break through. The change will be abrupt and could lead to icy road conditions especially where snow falls.

MONDAY NIGHT ... Clearing and very cold, some remnant snow squalls or flurries dying out near east coast but developing in some parts of Connacht and north Ulster as winds back to N 30-50 km/hr. Some severe frosts likely with lows -7 to -4 C except a bit milder where winds blow in from the sea.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals south, partly to mostly cloudy north with isolated snow 2-4 cm, cold or very cold with highs 2-5 C.

OUTLOOK ... Mostly dry except for some heavy coastal wintry showers (hail/snow as well as graupel or rain by mid-week) and staying quite cold for the mid-week period, some flurries or mixed wintry showers inland also, as weak troughs move south, but inland they not expected to be too heavy except possible in north, lows in the range -6 to -3 C and highs 2-5 C. Towards the following weekend, a frontal system (that develops out of remnants of the east coast U.S. storm now in the western Atlantic) could bring a sleety mixed fall of rain and snow to the south and there's even some chance of a snowfall in some higher areas. There is some chance of this storm being able to bring back milder weather but if not, any return to milder weather looks about two weeks distant at this point.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Showers or light rain, foggy, southeast winds 30-50 km/hr (stronger in north Scotland) and highs 7-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Fog and drizzle, lows 3-5 C. Wet snow mixing in across northeast Scotland. Winds backing to east 40-60 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Turning colder in stages from north to south, brisk east winds and rain or drizzle becoming showery and then sleety with a burst of heavier snow developing in eastern Scotland by Saturday night. This will spread further south during the night. Winds east to northeast 50-80 km/hr. Highs near 4 C north and about 7-9 C south, but temperatures falling rapidly by late in the day.

SUNDAY-MONDAY ... Windy and bitterly cold with outbreaks of heavy snow likely in east, some wintry sun in west, temperatures not far from -2 C night and day but somewhat milder readings close to North Sea. Winds E-NE about 50-80 km/hr although 30-50 km/hr inland south. The southwest may be hit by a severe wind storm Sunday night (ESE 60-120 km/hr) with blizzards on higher ground in Devon and Somerset, mixed wintry precip closer to sea level. This will spread east on Monday bringing possible snowstorm or blizzard conditions to most of southern England, parts of eastern England, and all or most of northern France too. Temperatures will be about zero C except 3-5 C coastal southwest. Dry and cold in parts of north Wales, northwest England, western Scotland with some sunshine. Winds generally ENE 50-90 km/hr.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Very cold, some additional snow in various regions as winds become more northerly but variable at times, mostly dry and very cold. Lows in the range -7 to -2 C, highs -1 to +4 C. Same uncertainty about the end of the cold spell, possibly not until after next weekend.

Forecasts for North America

Further snow in New England and parts of New York state, Ontario, but dry and cold other places east of the Mississippi River, trending to mild and sunny in the Gulf coast, to sunny and warm south central and inland southwest. Rain spreading further inland across parts of the west turning to snow over mountains. Cold but moderating in western Canada east of the Rockies. Dry and mild west coast of Canada.

My local weather on Thursday was cloudy with a bit of sun at times, highs near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 9 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for bitterly cold weather late Sunday to mid-day Tuesday, and outbreaks of snow mostly in Leinster, east Ulster and near south coast.

TODAY ... Cloudy, turning a bit colder especially in north, some showers or light rain, with fog or drizzle in east, a few brighter intervals for west, and highs near 7 in north, 10-12 C in south. Moderate east winds in the north and feeling raw by afternoon or evening, 30-50 km/hr with higher gusts developing late in the day.

TONIGHT ... Much colder in Ulster with sleet turning to snow at times, a coating possible on hills by morning ... cold rain or sleet in Leinster and Connacht turning to snow on hills ... rain at times in south, mild at first but turning quite cold by morning ... winds E-NE 40-70 km/hr in all regions, lows about -1 to +1 C except 4-6 C near south coast.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, some sleety outbreaks of light rain in south, sleet turning to wet snow in north, with risk of accumulating snow later in the day (mainly for east Ulster at this stage), accompanied by raw, moderate to strong east winds (50-70 km/hr). Temperatures steady no higher than 3-5 C then falling to about 1 C, but it could be even colder in the north and east by evening. Heavy snow could develop across the south by evening in near-blizzard conditions with NE winds increasing to 55-90 km/hr (rain on outer south coast turning to snow also). The first appearance of Irish Sea streamers may be during Sunday evening although most of them will not arrive until the morning hours.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... Bitterly cold with strong northeast winds 50-80 km/hr and some higher gusts near Irish Sea, outbreaks of snow and blowing snow may develop in parts of east Ulster, Leinster and some flurries may reach further west into Connacht and east to central Munster. A blizzard-like snowstorm is still possible across the south, although it may dissipate before having the chance to merge by Monday morning with Leinster snow streamers. Outbreaks of moderate or heavy snow also in parts of east Ulster. Amounts variable but potential for 10-20 cm in a few spots and 5-10 cm more widely. Temperatures falling to -1 C and wind chills -7 to -15 C.

MONDAY ... Windy and bitterly cold with further snow in Leinster and east to north Ulster mostly, becoming more dominated by streamers as the south coast snow may pull away to the east-southeast, but details may change closer to event ... some of the streamers could become very heavy with local bursts of 5-10 cm snowfalls and isolated 15-30 cm falls with thunder-snow, also some hail showers embedded. Some wintry sunshine at times mainly in the west, but passing snow flurries even there. Highs about +1 C but feeling like -6 to -15 C in the strong winds. If snow accumulates, blowing and drifting will follow and could lead to some travel problems and even road closures. Two areas that may see heavier snow appear to be Dublin-Meath and coastal Wicklow to east Wexford.

Chances of snow are about 80% for east Ulster and Leinster, 70% for south coast and Donegal, 50% for north Mayo (mainly by Monday night and Tuesday morning there), and 30% for midwest, 10-20% for Atlantic coasts. Most likely amounts peak at about 10-30 cm higher parts of Dublin and Wicklow, 5-15 cm Dublin-Meath and east Ulster as well as coastal Wicklow, and 3-7 cm further inland and inland south. Confidence on these amounts is moderate in this volatile situation, with an unusually cold regime in the lower reaches of the atmosphere for any time of year, regardless of calendar date, combined with strong winds and nearby "synoptic scale" snowfall in the mix.

Meanwhile, Monday temperatures may fall as low as -2 C and recover only slightly during the day to about 1-3 C, despite any sun that manages to break through. The change will be abrupt and could lead to icy road conditions especially where snow falls.

MONDAY NIGHT ... General clearing and very cold, some remnant snow squalls or flurries dying out near east coast but developing in some parts of Connacht and north Ulster as winds back to N 30-50 km/hr. Some severe frosts inland with lows -7 to -4 C except a bit milder (near -2 C) where winds blow in from the sea. Icy roads can be expected especially where snow had fallen earlier.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals south, partly to mostly cloudy north with isolated snow 2-4 cm, some mixed wintry showers developing in coastal Connacht and west Munster by afternoon, cold or very cold with highs 2-5 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, cold, mixed wintry showers in a brisk northerly wind, morning lows -3 to +1 C and afternoon highs 4-7 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, slightly milder especially in west, showers developing but these could be sleety at first across east and inland south, lows near -1 C and highs near 7 C.

NEXT FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... The model consensus shows potential for heavy rainfall and strong winds and also a return to colder conditions by later Sunday as one frontal wave from the west brings in mild air then the remnants of the current Atlantic storm south of Nova Scotia arrive via the Azores and perhaps on a track right across the country, dragging down another dose of rather cold, unstable air, so while Friday and perhaps Saturday should see 8-11 C highs, Sunday may turn colder in stages and produce mixed precipitation by evening in temperatures near 2-4 C. This scenario is of course an early estimate and this could change in either direction as we get further into the week.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY and TONIGHT ... Turning colder in stages from north to south, brisk east winds and rain or drizzle (heavier in southeast) becoming showery and then sleety especially in Midlands and Wales, with a burst of heavier snow developing in eastern Scotland by Saturday evening. This snow will spread further south during the night. Winds east to northeast 50-80 km/hr. Highs near 4 C north and about 7-9 C south, but temperatures falling rapidly by late in the day.

SUNDAY-MONDAY ... Windy and bitterly cold with outbreaks of heavy snow likely in east, some wintry sun in west, temperatures not far from -2 C night and day but somewhat milder readings close to North Sea. Winds E-NE about 50-80 km/hr although 30-50 km/hr inland south. The southwest may be hit by a severe wind storm Sunday night and Monday (ESE 60-120 km/hr) with blizzards on higher ground in Devon and Somerset, mixed wintry precip closer to sea level. This will spread east on Monday bringing possible snowstorm or blizzard conditions to most of southern England, parts of eastern England, and all or most of northern France too. Temperatures will be about zero C except 3-5 C coastal southwest where severe wave action may cause damage to seawalls (in south Devon and Cornwall). Dry and cold in parts of north Wales, northwest England, western Scotland with some sunshine both days although mostly cloudy with passing hail showers turning to snow flurries. Winds generally ENE 50-90 km/hr across central and northern Britain, feeling very cold in the wind (wind chill values near -10 C developing).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Very cold, some additional snow in various regions as winds become more northerly but variable at times, mostly dry but some outbreaks of heavy snow possible near Irish Sea and North Sea where northerly winds hit land (north Wales, Somerset-Devon, east Anglia, Kent). Lows in the range -7 to -2 C, highs -1 to +5 C. The milder end of week scenario becomes less certain for southeast England which could remain in colder air longer, and a return to cold on Sunday 17th might take place faster in Scotland than further south.

Forecasts for North America

The long-duration snow event in New England is finally over and only a few traces of snow are likely in coastal Nova Scotia as the storm pulls well away into the central Atlantic. Dry and cold for most eastern regions, trending to mild and dry Midwest and south central, increasing cloud with rain to follow in some parts of the central plains and wet snow on higher elevations of western and northern plains states (that will drop about 5-8 cm in western Iowa and Minnesota late tonight and Sunday). Dry and mild on west coast.

My local weather on Friday was sunny with cloudy intervals, and a high of 11C.

I will re-assess the snowfall situation after the 12z model runs and post updates as necessary ... keeping a close eye on the approaching low just in case it swerves off the model track closer to the south coast, because that would probably lead to heavier snow arriving on Sunday. Not seeing any obvious signs of that but it could spin off an unexpected spiral band.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 10 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for bitterly cold weather setting in from north to south today, lasting until mid-day Tuesday, and outbreaks of snow mostly in Leinster, east Ulster and near south coast. Details in forecasts.

TODAY ... Further outbreaks of rain, heavy at times, in west Munster this morning (10-15 mm) with minor local flooding ... rain or sleet at times in north-central counties turning to snow over higher ground, then mixing with snow closer to sea level as it moves further south by afternoon. Raw east winds 35-55 km/hr, somewhat stronger by late afternoon in north and east. The rain across parts of the south could also change over to snow by late afternoon (watch for updates). Temperatures falling in the south from current levels (8-10 C) to 5 C mid-day and 2 C evening. Temperatures steady or falling slowly elsewhere in the 2-4 C range. Heavier bursts of snow possible by evening in east Ulster and north Leinster.

TONIGHT ... Bitterly cold with strong northeast winds 50-80 km/hr and some higher gusts near Irish Sea, outbreaks of snow and blowing snow may develop in parts of east Ulster, Leinster and some flurries may reach further west into Connacht and east to central Munster. A watch continues for the risk of a widespread snowfall across the south, possibly merging by Monday morning with Leinster snow streamers. Outbreaks of moderate or heavy snow also in parts of east Ulster. Amounts variable but potential for 10-20 cm in a few spots and 5-10 cm more widely. Temperatures falling to -2 C and wind chills -7 to -15 C.

MONDAY ... Windy and bitterly cold with further (or rapidly developing) snow in Leinster and east to north Ulster mostly, becoming more dominated by streamers as any south coast snow pulls away to the east-southeast ... some of the streamers could become very heavy with local bursts of 5-10 cm snowfalls and isolated 15-30 cm falls with thunder-snow, also some hail showers embedded. Some wintry sunshine at times mainly in the west, but passing snow flurries even there. Highs about +1 C but feeling like -6 to -15 C in the strong winds. If snow accumulates, blowing and drifting will follow and could lead to some travel problems and even road closures. Two areas that may see heavier snow appear to be Dublin-Meath and coastal Wicklow to east Wexford.

Chances of snow are about 80% for east Ulster and Leinster, 60% for south coast and Donegal, 40% for north Mayo (mainly by Monday night and Tuesday morning there), and 30% for midwest, 10-20% for Atlantic coasts. Most likely amounts peak at about 10-30 cm higher parts of Dublin and Wicklow, 5-15 cm Dublin-Meath and east Ulster as well as coastal Wicklow, and 3-7 cm further inland and inland south. Snowfall amounts and rates could be highly variable from place to place as streamers can be narrow, concentrated bands of moderate or heavy snow. The change to sub-freezing temperatures will be quite abrupt and could lead to icy road conditions especially where snow falls.

MONDAY NIGHT ... General clearing and very cold, some remnant snow squalls or flurries dying out near east coast but developing in some parts of Connacht and north Ulster as winds back to N 30-50 km/hr. Some severe frosts inland with lows -7 to -4 C except a bit milder (near -2 C) where winds blow in from the sea. Icy roads can be expected especially where snow had fallen earlier.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals south, partly to mostly cloudy north with isolated snow 2-4 cm, some mixed wintry showers developing in coastal Connacht and west Munster by afternoon, also a continuing risk of wintry showers near the east coast (although most of these may remain off the coast by then) ... cold or very cold with highs 2-5 C. Winds NNW 30-50 km/hr adding a chill, feeling like -5 C especially out of the sun.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, cold, mixed wintry showers in a brisk northerly wind, morning lows -3 to +1 C and afternoon highs 4-7 C. The west could see more frequent rain showers than wintry showers as temperatures will tend to rise slightly each day.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, slightly milder especially in west, rain showers developing but these could be sleety or wintry at first across east and inland south, lows near -1 C and highs near 7 C.

The following is the most likely outcome for the following weekend, although even colder solutions are "on the table" in some model depictions.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, periods of rain, milder, moderate south to southwest winds, highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy, showers, highs near 11 C.

SUNDAY (17th ) ... Showers may become wintry in north and west as colder air returns, winds turning more northerly. Highs 7-9 C early, temperatures likely falling.

MONDAY ... Unsettled, cold ... mixed wintry showers likely. Highs no better than 6-8 C.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY and TONIGHT, MONDAY ... Windy and bitterly cold with outbreaks of heavy snow likely in east, some wintry sunshine at times in west, temperatures falling to about -2 C by mid-day except 3-7 C in south coastal counties, then -5 C by tonight except 1-3 C in southwest ... winds from the east to northeast about 50-80 km/hr although 30-50 km/hr inland south. The southwest may be hit by a severe wind storm Sunday night and Monday (ESE 60-120 km/hr) with blizzards on higher ground in Devon and Somerset, mixed wintry precip closer to sea level. This will spread east on Monday bringing possible snowstorm or blizzard conditions (10-30 cm snow possible) to most of southern England, parts of eastern England, and all or most of northern France too. Temperatures will be about zero C except 3-5 C coastal southwest where severe wave action may cause damage to seawalls (in south Devon and Cornwall). Dry and cold in parts of north Wales, northwest England, western Scotland with some sunshine both days although mostly cloudy with passing hail showers turning to snow flurries. Winds generally ENE 50-90 km/hr across central and northern Britain, feeling very cold in the wind (wind chill values near -10 C developing).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Very cold, some additional snow in various regions as winds become more northerly but variable at times, mostly dry but some outbreaks of heavy snow possible near Irish Sea and North Sea where northerly winds hit land (north Wales, Somerset-Devon, east Anglia, Kent). Lows in the range -7 to -2 C, highs -1 to +5 C. The milder end of week scenario becomes less certain for southeast England which could remain in colder air longer, and a return to cold on Sunday 17th might take place faster in Scotland than further south.

Forecasts for North America

Milder for most of the eastern third of the U.S. into southern Ontario with highs reaching 8-12 C north, 15-18 C south ... rain spreading north ahead of a rather weak front and some snow spreading northeast towards Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin (Chicago in fog and rain at 7 C). ... Warm and dry in Florida and also in most of the southwest, increasing cloud inland northwest U.S. ahead of a frontal system hitting the coast with rain.

My local weather on Saturday was very pleasant, sunny with a high of 12 C.

Updates as required, and plenty of discussion of the evolving situation on the forum threads.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 11 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for bitterly cold weather persisting well into Tuesday, with icy roads especially where snow has fallen recently ... outbreaks of snow mostly in Leinster, east Ulster and near south coast. Details in forecasts.

Astronomy note: New moon occurs later today at 7:52 p.m.

Discussion (snowfall) -- Overnight we have seen gradual development of two main streamer bands coming inland near Louth and Meath, and a weaker third one to the south of Dublin. There have been hints of a fourth streamer trying to set up across Waterford and the south coast. Reports have been received of 2-3 cm snowfalls so far in Meath and that streamer extends almost as far as Galway before breaking up. Currently rather light snowfall rates could increase during the day with increased convection, and all the streamer bands are likely to shift southward as winds slowly change from ENE to NE and eventually NNE. The alert situation is therefore (in somewhat more detail) a watch for moderate snowfall in most of Leinster and an alert to likely heavier snow by mid-day and afternoon most likely to be in regions north and south of Dublin. The Wicklow and eventually Wexford coasts may be most favoured by the combination of timing and intensity. The situation for Dublin is more uncertain but there is a moderate chance of snowfall becoming heavier when the band currently north of the city begins to shift south. Any of these streamers could develop a burst of heavy thunder-snow and this would create poor visibility locally. At the same time, spaces between the streamers will remain largely dry with a few light flurries and some brief sunny breaks, so expect a wide variety of conditions, especially if you are travelling any distance.

TODAY ... Windy and bitterly cold with further snow in Leinster and east to north Ulster mostly, becoming more dominated by streamers as any south coast snow pulls away to the east-southeast ... see the discussion above for estimates of timing and amounts, in general, 3-7 cm could fall in quite a few places in Leinster and 10-20 cm are possible especially in Wicklow later today. During the mid-day and afternoon, thunder-snow, also some hail showers could be embedded in snow streamers. Some wintry sunshine at times mainly in the west, but passing snow flurries even there. Highs about +1 C but feeling like -6 to -15 C in the strong winds. (ENE 40-70 km/hr with some gusts to 90 km/hr near coasts). Where snow accumulates, blowing and drifting will follow and could lead to some travel problems. The combination of blowing snow at ground level and bright sunshine can be especially hazardous, it is recommended to drive with headlights on so that oncoming traffic can see you in the glare.

Snowfall amounts and rates could be highly variable from place to place as streamers can be narrow, concentrated bands of moderate or heavy snow. The change to sub-freezing temperatures will be quite abrupt and could lead to icy road conditions especially where snow falls.

TONIGHT ... General clearing and very cold, some remnant snow squalls or flurries dying out near east coast but developing in some parts of Connacht and north Ulster as winds back to N 30-50 km/hr. Some severe frosts inland with lows -7 to -4 C except a bit milder (near -2 C) where winds blow in from the sea. Icy roads can be expected especially where snow had fallen earlier.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals south, partly to mostly cloudy north with isolated snow 2-4 cm, some mixed wintry showers developing in coastal Connacht and west Munster by afternoon, also a continuing risk of wintry showers near the east coast (although most of these may remain off the coast by then) ... cold or very cold with highs 2-5 C. Winds NNW 30-50 km/hr adding a chill, feeling like -5 C especially out of the sun.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, cold, mixed wintry showers in a brisk northerly wind, morning lows -3 to +1 C and afternoon highs 4-7 C. The west could see more frequent rain showers than wintry showers as temperatures will tend to rise slightly each day.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, slightly milder especially in west, rain showers developing but these could be sleety or wintry at first across east and inland south, lows near -1 C and highs near 7 C.

The following is the most likely outcome for the following weekend, although even colder solutions are "on the table" in some model depictions.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, periods of rain, milder, moderate south to southwest winds, highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy, showers, highs near 11 C at least early and in the south and east ... there are some indications of a colder regime spreading south to cover the west and north in mixed wintry showers and highs 4-7 C.

SUNDAY (17th ) ... Showers may remain wintry in north and west as colder air continues to push further south and east, winds turning more northerly to northeasterly in most regions. Highs 7-9 C early in the day for southeast otherwise 3-6 C, temperatures likely falling further.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Unsettled, cold ... mixed wintry showers likely. Highs no better than 5-8 C. Some risk of snow developing in north.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Windy and bitterly cold with outbreaks of heavy snow likely in east, some wintry sunshine at times in west, temperatures falling to about -2 C by mid-day except 0-2 C in south coastal counties ... winds from the east to northeast about 50-80 km/hr although 30-50 km/hr inland south. The southwest has seen very strong east winds and some light snow, with the risk of heavier snow later when winds back into the north. This may eventually bring blizzards to higher parts of Devon and Somerset, mixed wintry precip closer to sea level. The Channel storm will spread east on Monday bringing possible snowstorm or blizzard conditions (10-30 cm snow possible) to most of south central and south eastern England, and all or most of northern France too. In this storm zone, temperatures will be about zero C except 3-5 C coastal southwest where severe wave action may cause damage to seawalls (in south Devon and Cornwall). Dry and cold in parts of north Wales, northwest England, western Scotland with some sunshine while central regions mostly cloudy with passing snow flurries. Winds generally ENE 50-90 km/hr across central and northern Britain, feeling very cold in the wind (wind chill values near -10 C developing). Some heavier snowfalls in east Scotland, northeast England, Yorkshire, east Midlands, and the Thames estuary region from North Sea streamers. Amounts variable, some heavy falls possible in a few places (10-15 cm).

TONIGHT ... Snow continuing in parts of the southeast and in Devon-Somerset, spreading to north Wales at times from Irish Sea, clear and very cold in most other places, some record low temperatures near -10 C possible, widely below -6 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Very cold, some additional snow in various regions as winds become more northerly but variable at times, mostly dry but some outbreaks of heavy snow possible near Irish Sea and North Sea where northerly winds hit land (north Wales, Somerset-Devon, east Anglia, Kent). Lows in the range -7 to -2 C, highs -1 to +5 C. The milder end of week scenario becomes less certain for southeast England which could remain in colder air longer, and a return to cold on Sunday 17th might take place faster in Scotland than further south.

Forecasts for North America

Mild on the east coast and in the lower Great Lakes region, rain and turning colder in the Midwest and Mississippi valley, rain turning to wet snow in some parts of the northern Midwest, as snow spreads across the northern Great Lakes and becomes heavy in northern Ontario. Milder in most of the Canadian prairies and northern plains as Pacific air streams across the Rockies to replace the arctic air which is gradually losing its grip on central regions. Dry and warm in the south central and southwest states, cloudy with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle near the coast north of California, and mountain snowfalls generally rather light.

My local weather on Sunday was cloudy with drizzle and light rain, chilly with highs about 7 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 12 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for some continuing snowfall in southeast counties ... the snow has largely ended except in Wicklow, Wexford, Carlow and Waterford, and there may be further accumulations of 3-7 cm there, tapering off to flurries before ending mid-day ... there is also a slight risk of new snow showers developing in parts of Mayo, Sligo, Donegal and other parts of Ulster, mainly on higher ground as that area of showers may be mixed. Also, watch out for patchy ice on roads, severe in a few places where snow fell recently, and more isolated in shaded areas that stayed dry.

TODAY ... Sunny intervals south in many areas, although some heavy snow showers possible near the southeast coast from about Wicklow to Waterford. Cloud will push slowly into northern counties and bring a risk of mixed wintry showers to coastal Connacht and parts of west Ulster by afternoon ... these will likely be more mixed near sea level, mostly snow on hills ... snow in the southeast is likely to continue but streamers could begin to oscillate away from land as winds become more northerly. It will remain cold or very cold with highs slowly reaching the range of 2-5 C. Severe frost could persist in some shaded spots into mid-day and at higher elevations near snow could persist all day. Winds backing from NNE to NNW 30-50 km/hr adding a chill, feeling like -5 C or lower, especially out of the sun.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, isolated wintry showers mainly in coastal regions except south, very cold ... lows -6 C in some places, generally near -3 C. Watch for icy roads as humidity levels may be higher than during the core of this cold spell (the dry cold has prevented significant icing on some roads despite very cold temperatures, this may not be the case every morning that hits similar temperatures).

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, cold, mixed wintry showers in a brisk northerly wind, morning lows -3 to +1 C and afternoon highs 4-7 C. The west could see more frequent rain showers than wintry showers as temperatures will tend to rise slightly each day. East Ulster on the other hand could see streamers of rather heavy snow at times from a N-NW origin.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, slightly milder especially in west, rain showers developing but these could be sleety or wintry at first across east and inland south, lows near -1 C and highs near 7 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, periods of rain, milder, moderate south to southwest winds, highs near 10 C. Temperatures may fall back slightly by afternoon or evening in northern counties and rain could become sleety there.

SATURDAY ... Windy, showers, highs 8 to 11 C at least early and in the south and east ... there are some indications of a colder regime spreading south to cover the west and north in mixed wintry showers and highs 4-7 C.

SUNDAY (17th ) ... Showers may remain wintry in north and west as colder air continues to push further south and east, winds turning more northerly to northeasterly in most regions. Highs 7-9 C early in the day for southeast otherwise 3-6 C, temperatures likely falling further. There are some indications of snow on hills in the north.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Unsettled, cold ... mixed wintry showers likely, some snow is possible at times. Highs no better than 5-8 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The improvements may come first in terms of sunshine and dry weather before any real warming trend, but the only thing working in favour of a warm spell is the increasing sun angle -- at least the sun is going to feel warmer each week even if the air remains cold.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Some further heavy snowfall in parts of the southeast, 5-15 cm could fall in parts of Kent, Surrey and Sussex, southeast greater London, as well as in more isolated falls in East Anglia and the east Midlands. Further north, the snow machine has broken down somewhat and some of the snow showers may now become sleety or hail-snow mixtures. Dry cold prevails in some central and most western regions with highs in the range -2 to +3 C.

TONIGHT ... Generally clearing as snow moves away from the southeast and North Sea activity wanes, but a few isolated heavy flurries in Wales and southwest England thanks to the Irish Sea. Lows -8 to -3 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Warming will be faint in Britain, even compared to Ireland, as the weak push of milder air from the northwest fails to push beyond the western coasts. Although the most severe cold will moderate, temperatures will remain near 3-5 C by day and below freezing at night to around -4 C. There will be fairly frequent mixed wintry showers mostly snow over inland regions from western Scotland south on Wednesday, a somewhat drying trend on Thursday, then widespread sleet or wet snow on Friday. The weekend looks cold and wet, although much milder air could rush north from central France to reach the southeast briefly as deep low pressure forms near the Bristol Channel region. Wales and Scotland could see some heavy snow on hills next weekend, lower down, it's likely to be a mixed bag of all types of precipitation. A cold, dry period should eventually follow as higher pressure develops over the region.

Forecasts for North America

Mild with periods of rain for eastern states, rain to wet snow and a bit colder for the Great Lakes and Midwest, clearing later west of Chicago. Dry and mild in central and inland western regions, rain near the west coast.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy with spits of rain that have since become a steady light rain, and highs reached 8 C. Our spring blooming has been quite delayed, the trees are showing almost no "movement" and I don't see any crocus or daffodils in the usual spots yet.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 13 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for scattered instances of black ice especially where snow fell recently and more widely in central counties, this morning and tomorrow morning lasting until perhaps 0930h or so.

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, still rather cold, with a few mixed wintry showers in a moderate northerly wind 25-45 km/hr, highs 5-8 C. The west will see more frequent rain showers than wintry showers, East Ulster especially higher portions would be more likely to see snow showers, but also the trend is generally rather dry as showers will only cover 10-20 per cent of the country at peak times later today, amounts generally trace to 2 mm equivalent.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few breaks, and it could once again become frosty in some inland counties, with lows generally -2 to +3 C. Some light wintry showers may develop later and become heavier towards morning, bringing some snow cover to high ground and sleet at lower elevations, mainly in Connacht and Ulster.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, slightly milder especially in west, rain showers developing but these could be sleety or wintry at first across east and inland south, and highs near 7 C as winds back into a westerly direction at 30-50 km/hr. Temperatures may be improving slightly but this is likely to feel raw and chilly for time of year.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, periods of rain, milder for at least the first part of the day with moderate south to southwest winds, highs near 10 C. Temperatures may fall back slightly by afternoon or evening in northern counties and rain could become sleety there. The milder air will be pushed out to the southeast by evening.

SATURDAY ... Windy, showers, highs 6 to 9 C at least early and in the south and east ... a colder regime will then develop to cover the west and north in mixed wintry showers and highs 4-7 C. There could be some heavy hail showers with thunder during the transition mid-day.

SUNDAY (17th ) ... There may be some breaks in the overcast especially for the south and west, but it will remain somewhat unstable ... showers may remain wintry in north as colder air continues to push further south, winds turning more northerly to northeasterly in most regions. Highs 7-9 C in the southeast but otherwise 3-6 C, temperatures falling even lower by evening. There are some indications of snow on hills in the north, sleet or hail at lower elevations, and cold rain near sea level, Sunday night into Monday.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Unsettled, cold ... mixed wintry showers likely, some snow is possible at times. Highs no better than 5-8 C. East to northeast winds 30-50 km/hr with stronger gusts near Irish Sea. I'm expecting another round of streamers but this time the dynamics are marginal for snow and so a real mixed bag of precipitation types can be expected, elevation may be more important than region.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The improvements may come first in terms of sunshine and dry weather before any real warming trend, but the only thing working in favour of a warm spell is the increasing sun angle -- at least the sun is going to feel warmer each week even if the air remains cold. I have a hunch that it will get a lot warmer just as the month ends (in time for Easter). There's only so much retrogression we can have before the air originates in the deserts of central Asia and not the snowfields of Europe. (On that subject, -12 C over fresh snow under clearing skies north of Paris this morning).

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, cold, mixed wintry showers in a few places, most likely near Irish Sea in moderate N-NW winds 30-50 km/hr. Highs about 4-7 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, frosty in places, isolated snow flurries. Lows near -2 C on average.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Warming will be faint in Britain, even compared to Ireland, as the weak push of milder air from the northwest fails to push beyond the western coasts. Although the most severe cold will moderate, temperatures will remain near 3-5 C by day and below freezing at night to around -4 C. There will be fairly frequent mixed wintry showers mostly snow over inland regions from western Scotland south on Wednesday, a somewhat drying trend on Thursday, then widespread sleet or wet snow on Friday. The weekend looks cold and wet, although much milder air could rush north from central France to reach the southeast briefly as deep low pressure forms near the Bristol Channel region. Wales and Scotland could see some heavy snow on hills next weekend, lower down, it's likely to be a mixed bag of all types of precipitation. A cold, dry period should eventually follow as higher pressure develops over the region.


Forecasts for North America

A rather quiet interval now as a weak frontal system heads into eastern Canada and rain ends later today in the eastern states followed by clearing and cooler but not excessively cold weather with a slight frost tonight and highs tomorrow 7-10 C.

Large areas of the central states will be dry and mild, while rain moves inland on the west coast, and a weak chinook warming pattern replaces low cloud and light snow or freezing drizzle in parts of western Canada.

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with occasional rain, not overly heavy but persistent, and highs near 9 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 13 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for scattered instances of black ice especially where snow fell recently and more widely in central counties, this morning and tomorrow morning lasting until perhaps 0930h or so.

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, still rather cold, with a few mixed wintry showers in a moderate northerly wind 25-45 km/hr, highs 5-8 C. The west will see more frequent rain showers than wintry showers, East Ulster especially higher portions would be more likely to see snow showers, but also the trend is generally rather dry as showers will only cover 10-20 per cent of the country at peak times later today, amounts generally trace to 2 mm equivalent.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few breaks, and it could once again become frosty in some inland counties, with lows generally -2 to +3 C. Some light wintry showers may develop later and become heavier towards morning, bringing some snow cover to high ground and sleet at lower elevations, mainly in Connacht and Ulster.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, slightly milder especially in west, rain showers developing but these could be sleety or wintry at first across east and inland south, and highs near 7 C as winds back into a westerly direction at 30-50 km/hr. Temperatures may be improving slightly but this is likely to feel raw and chilly for time of year.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, periods of rain, milder for at least the first part of the day with moderate south to southwest winds, highs near 10 C. Temperatures may fall back slightly by afternoon or evening in northern counties and rain could become sleety there. The milder air will be pushed out to the southeast by evening.

SATURDAY ... Windy, showers, highs 6 to 9 C at least early and in the south and east ... a colder regime will then develop to cover the west and north in mixed wintry showers and highs 4-7 C. There could be some heavy hail showers with thunder during the transition mid-day.

SUNDAY (17th ) ... There may be some breaks in the overcast especially for the south and west, but it will remain somewhat unstable ... showers may remain wintry in north as colder air continues to push further south, winds turning more northerly to northeasterly in most regions. Highs 7-9 C in the southeast but otherwise 3-6 C, temperatures falling even lower by evening. There are some indications of snow on hills in the north, sleet or hail at lower elevations, and cold rain near sea level, Sunday night into Monday.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Unsettled, cold ... mixed wintry showers likely, some snow is possible at times. Highs no better than 5-8 C. East to northeast winds 30-50 km/hr with stronger gusts near Irish Sea. I'm expecting another round of streamers but this time the dynamics are marginal for snow and so a real mixed bag of precipitation types can be expected, elevation may be more important than region.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The improvements may come first in terms of sunshine and dry weather before any real warming trend, but the only thing working in favour of a warm spell is the increasing sun angle -- at least the sun is going to feel warmer each week even if the air remains cold. I have a hunch that it will get a lot warmer just as the month ends (in time for Easter). There's only so much retrogression we can have before the air originates in the deserts of central Asia and not the snowfields of Europe. (On that subject, -12 C over fresh snow under clearing skies north of Paris this morning).

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, cold, mixed wintry showers in a few places, most likely near Irish Sea in moderate N-NW winds 30-50 km/hr. Highs about 4-7 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, frosty in places, isolated snow flurries. Lows near -2 C on average.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Warming will be faint in Britain, even compared to Ireland, as the weak push of milder air from the northwest fails to push beyond the western coasts. Although the most severe cold will moderate, temperatures will remain near 3-5 C by day and below freezing at night to around -4 C. There will be fairly frequent mixed wintry showers mostly snow over inland regions from western Scotland south on Wednesday, a somewhat drying trend on Thursday, then widespread sleet or wet snow on Friday. The weekend looks cold and wet, although much milder air could rush north from central France to reach the southeast briefly as deep low pressure forms near the Bristol Channel region. Wales and Scotland could see some heavy snow on hills next weekend, lower down, it's likely to be a mixed bag of all types of precipitation. A cold, dry period should eventually follow as higher pressure develops over the region.


Forecasts for North America

A rather quiet interval now as a weak frontal system heads into eastern Canada and rain ends later today in the eastern states followed by clearing and cooler but not excessively cold weather with a slight frost tonight and highs tomorrow 7-10 C.

Large areas of the central states will be dry and mild, while rain moves inland on the west coast, and a weak chinook warming pattern replaces low cloud and light snow or freezing drizzle in parts of western Canada.

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with occasional rain, not overly heavy but persistent, and highs near 9 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 14 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for scattered instances of black ice this morning lasting until perhaps 0930h or so. ADVANCE ALERT for hail, sleet and even some snow (the latter most likely on hills in north) over the period late Friday to mid-week ... very cold for mid-March

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, slightly milder especially in west, rain showers developing but these could be sleety or wintry at first across east and inland south, and highs near 7 C as winds back into a westerly direction at 30-50 km/hr. Temperatures may be improving slightly but it's likely to feel raw and chilly for time of year especially once the rain or sleet begins.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, showers or periods of rain, temperatures steady in the range 4-6 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, periods of rain, milder for at least the first part of the day with moderate south to southwest winds, highs near 10 C. Temperatures may fall back slightly by afternoon or evening in northern counties and rain could become sleety there. The milder air will be pushed out to the southeast by evening. If any sunshine develops in east, expect hail showers with thunder to break out within hours (the air will be unstable and the freezing level only 1200m).

SATURDAY ... Windy, showers, highs 6 to 9 C at least early and in the south and east ... a colder regime will then develop to cover the west and north in mixed wintry showers and highs 4-7 C. There could be some heavy hail showers with thunder during the transition mid-day.

SUNDAY (17th ) ... There may be some breaks in the overcast especially for the south and west, but it will remain quiet unstable ... showers may remain wintry in north as colder air continues to push further south, winds turning more northerly to northeasterly in most regions. Highs 7-9 C in the southeast but otherwise 3-6 C, temperatures falling even lower by evening. Expect snow on hills in the north, sleet or hail at lower elevations, and cold rain near sea level, Sunday night into Monday. The pattern remains very marginal for snow at low elevations on most models but small changes would bring it into play as a colder easterly flow will be as close as Scotland and the north coast of Ulster by the end of the weekend. If it got any further south then sleet could easily turn to snow in some fairly low elevations at least across the northern half of Ireland. But at the moment I think hail might be the main story.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Unsettled, cold ... mixed wintry showers likely, some snow is possible at times. Highs no better than 5-8 C. East to northeast winds 30-50 km/hr with stronger gusts near Irish Sea. I'm expecting another round of streamers but this time the dynamics are marginal for snow and so a real mixed bag of precipitation types can be expected, elevation may be more important than region.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The swirling complex of low pressure may actually move far enough west, eventually, to allow somewhat warmer air to move north mid to late week and this could at least bring a warmer variety of wet weather, and then a drying trend as the low pressure fills and higher pressure of more continental than arctic origin sets in. With any sort of luck, the pattern could even reverse to a warm southerly flow before Easter. I'm expecting that sort of change because it has been quite some time (end of January) since we saw really above normal temperatures, other than the rather minor event last week.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Sunny and cold to start in most of England and Wales, cloudy with mixed showers further north, some patchy ice fog dissipating .... by afternoon, frequent mixed wintry showers, snow showers more prevalent in east especially above 150m, rain more likely in west and southwest. Highs will range from near 8 C in west to about 3 C in east.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, sleet or wintry showers, cold. Lows 1-3 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The general outcome will be about the same as in Ireland, if somewhat warmer in the southeast over the weekend. Widespread cold rain, hail, sleet or even snow showers can be expected with a trend towards accumulating snow in Scotland and higher parts of Wales, north-central England, with the coldest part of the period Sunday-Tuesday.


Forecasts for North America

Most of the west will be warmer than average and except for the Pacific northwest and B.C., dry. Heavy rain moving inland on the west coast may amount to 100 mm in places. A weaker disturbance moving through the Canadian prairies will bring 1-3 cm snowfalls and then begin to drift southeast tonight taking that snow into the upper Midwest by tomorrow morning. A rather cold and dry pattern prevails further east in association with a weak arctic high near Lake Superior. Temperatures are 3 to 5 degrees below normal in most of the eastern U.S. and eastern Canada.

My local weather has been dominated by the heavy rainfall event that started mid-day and continues to put down 5-10 mm an hour tonight with no signs of a let up soon. It is a bit warmer now, 11 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 15 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

Unsettled for next seven days: There is probably no single feature of this forecast that needs an alert, just the entire period and a constant parade of changing weather types, most of them inclement, adding up to about 50 mm of rain or equivalent moisture over the week. Heavy hail showers are likely to be the most "high impact" event, especially if you're caught outside in one.

TODAY ... Showers will continue for a while this morning in Leinster, but some sunshine will follow there, as western regions return to cloud and showers by mid-day ... some of these showers could become thundery with hail and a few places could see large hail (1-2 cm). Highs about 10 C although temperatures could fall significantly during and after hail showers and especially in Connacht where a cooling trend may set in by mid-afternoon. Average rainfalls 5-10 mm.

TONIGHT ... A few more showers, some partial clearing and cold with frost and icy roads developing in a few locations mostly central and northern counties, lows -2 to +2 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy at times, some sunny intervals in Leinster but otherwise widespread showers spreading east during the day, highs 6 to 9 C at least early and in the south and east ... a colder regime will then develop to cover the west and north in mixed wintry showers and highs 4-7 C. There could be some heavy hail showers with thunder during the transition mid-day.

SUNDAY (17th ) ... After another somewhat frosty night with partial clearing and continuing wintry showers in places, it will remain quite unstable ... showers may remain wintry in north as colder air continues to push further south, winds turning more northerly to northeasterly in most regions. Highs 7-9 C in the southeast but otherwise 3-6 C, temperatures falling even lower by evening. Expect snow on hills in the north, sleet or hail at lower elevations, and cold rain near sea level, Sunday night into Monday. The pattern remains very marginal for snow at low elevations on most models but small changes would bring it into play as a colder easterly flow will be as close as Scotland and the north coast of Ulster by the end of the weekend. If it got any further south then sleet could easily turn to snow in some fairly low elevations at least across the northern half of Ireland, however, I continue to think hail might be the main story.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Unsettled, cold ... mixed wintry showers likely, some snow is possible at times. Highs no better than 5-8 C. East to northeast winds 30-50 km/hr with stronger gusts near Irish Sea. There could be another round of streamers if the larger clumps of rain break up, but this time the dynamics are marginal for snow and so a real mixed bag of precipitation types can be expected, where elevation may be more important than region. Overnight lows will be about 1-3 C on average and could still fall below freezing in one or two spots.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The swirling complex of low pressure may actually move far enough west, eventually, to allow somewhat warmer air to move north mid to late week and this could at least bring a warmer variety of wet weather, although it looks increasingly like a heavy rainfall may develop with temperatures closer to 10 C ... and then eventually there could be a drying trend as the low pressure fills and higher pressure of more continental than arctic origin sets in. With any sort of luck, the pattern could even reverse to a warm southerly flow before Easter. I'm expecting that sort of change because it has been quite some time (end of January) since we saw really above normal temperatures, other than the rather minor event last week. The models at present seem inclined to keep it unsettled but at least the signal is towards warmer weather a week or two down the road.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Heavy rain will spread east from current locations in Wales and southwest England ... some sleet on hills, but generally a bit milder than recent days with highs 8-11 C. Hail showers may develop later in western regions after brief clearing.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, widespread sleet or wintry showers, cold. Lows 1-3 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The general outcome will be about the same as in Ireland, if somewhat warmer in the southeast over the weekend. Widespread cold rain, hail, sleet or even snow showers can be expected with a trend towards accumulating snow in Scotland and higher parts of Wales, north-central England, with the coldest part of the period Sunday-Tuesday. Scotland could see some heavy falls of wet snow around Monday night or Tuesday. This cold, wet spell will gradually see a warming trend although it will stay wet until late in the week if not through the rest of the month.


Forecasts for North America

Snow will become rather heavy across parts of the Rockies and the Canadian prairies as heavy rain from the coast moves further inland. Light snow will move ahead of that into the Midwest, turning to sleet. Rather warm weather will continue across most of the western and central U.S. south of these frontal systems, and it could reach 25-28 C in parts of Texas. The eastern states remain trapped in modified arctic air and temperatures are at least a couple of degrees below normal, if not more (highs are about 3-7 C in most places in the northeast U.S. trending to 15-20 C in the southeast).

My local weather on Thursday was wet again, with another 25 mm of rain and temperatures steady near 10 C. The grass is now soggier than at any point in the past six months (when it was baked dry in a long autumn drought). Daffodils are closed up tight, they don't want to see what's happening. :eek:

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 16 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for widespread icy or slippery roads both this morning (to about 10:00h) and overnight into Sunday morning. Also, ALERT for widespread hail or snow showers the next several days and a slight risk of heavy accumulations of snow in northern and central (inland) counties mid-week.

TODAY ... A very cold start with icy roads in many locations, the morning will bring some sunny intervals in Leinster and sleety rain (snow on higher hills) will be moving east across Munster and then south Leinster, but otherwise widespread hail or snow/rain mixed showers spreading east during the day, highs could reach 6 to 9 C at least in the south and east but a colder regime will then develop to cover the west and north with the advance of mixed wintry showers and highs 4-7 C. There could be some heavy hail showers with thunder during the transition mid-day.

TONIGHT ... Mixed wintry showers will continue, if any clearing develops temperatures will rapidly fall below freezing, lows -4 to 0 C. Widespread icy or slippery roads are likely. Some heavier falls of sleet or snow are possible in higher elevations of the north.

SUNDAY -- St. Patrick's Day ... After another somewhat frosty night with partial clearing and continuing wintry showers in places, it will remain quite unstable ... showers may remain wintry in north as colder air continues to push further south, winds turning more northerly to northeasterly in most regions. Highs 6-8 C in the southeast but otherwise 3-6 C, temperatures falling even lower by evening. Expect snow on hills in the north, sleet or hail at lower elevations, and cold rain near sea level, Sunday night into Monday.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Unsettled, cold ... mixed wintry showers likely, some snow is possible at times. Highs no better than 5-8 C. East to northeast winds 30-50 km/hr with stronger gusts near Irish Sea. There could be another round of streamers if the larger clumps of rain break up, but this time the dynamics are marginal for snow and so a real mixed bag of precipitation types can be expected, where elevation may be more important than region. Overnight lows will be about 1-3 C on average and could still fall below freezing in one or two spots.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... The model evolution at present indicates that if there is to be a more widespread and sustained snowfall event, it will likely cover the north at about this time frame ... otherwise the outcome is likely to be sleet with snow just on higher elevations, and cold rain in the south (this is more likely in any case). Winds could also become stronger from the E to NE during this period. Highs of only 2 to 5 C in the north, 5 to 8 C in the south, and continued icy conditions in some places overnight and mornings. The precipitation could also include sleet and even some freezing rain in north-central regions.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... There is still some risk of snow or sleet, even patchy freezing rain, in the north but for counties south of a line Meath to Galway, this is probably going to turn out to be a somewhat milder interval with heavy rain spreading across all regions, possibly 50-75 mm, in strong E to SE winds 50-80 km/hr. We'll be narrowing down the specifics later in the weekend or by Monday for how much rain and what, if any risk of snow ... most probable temperatures are about 7-9 C although it could stay 2-5 C in the north at least for part of this period.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some models are showing hints of warmer weather to follow, others want to keep very chilly air masses over the region until Easter. The chances of a gradual warming trend seem better to this forecaster at present.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Variable cloud, wintry showers, some hail with thunder. Highs 7-9 C on lower ground but 3-6 C in parts of Wales, Scotland, northern England.

TONIGHT ... Wintry showers continuing, some icy patches on roads, lows -3 to +1.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, cold or very cold (although somewhat milder in southeast England). Highs generally 4-7 C all week but colder in parts of Scotland and a bit milder in the southeast. Heavy rain at times in south, heavy snow over higher parts of the north and sometimes also closer to sea level.


Forecasts for North America

Heavy snow is developing across central B.C. and parts of Alberta, while rather mild and moist air streams across the south of those provinces as part of a large-scale warming in the western U.S., covering the western two-thirds of the country now, except for Minnesota, Wisconsin and northern Illinois. East of Lake Michigan and further south, cold air remains in place with snow at times in the lower Great Lakes and New England. Rather bland weather between that snow and a warm, sunny spell developing across the Gulf coast. Highs in Texas are soaring into the 30s.

My local weather now requires aquatic skills to survive, that's all I am going to say about it. The morning was very foggy but it has turned a few degrees milder (12C).

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 17 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for widespread icy or slippery roads both this morning (to about 10:00h) and overnight into Monday morning. Also, ALERT for widespread hail or snow showers the next several days and a slight to moderate risk of heavy accumulations of snow in northern and central (inland) counties mid-week, not just on hills but at lower elevations ... although it's later in March than the previous event, this one has less dry air to overcome and an abundant supply of moisture. Counties north of a line from Galway to Dublin (and in particular inland parts of Ulster) could see some significant snow cover developing especially around Wednesday.

TODAY -- St. Patrick's Day -- After another somewhat frosty start with partly cloudy skies in much of the country, but areas of sleety or wintry showers in parts of the north and west, the mid-day and afternoon will probably see more widespread wintry and possibly thundery showers of hail, sleet and (over hills in the north) snow. Although winds will turn more northerly in most regions, they will only be moderately strong in the west (30-50 km/hr), considerably lighter in other regions. Highs 6-8 C in the southeast but otherwise 3-6 C, temperatures falling even lower by evening.

TONIGHT ... Outbreaks of sleet or cold rain (south, east) and hill snow (north, west) with lows between -2 and +2 C. One or two places may clear for a while and drop briefly to -5 C. Expect some ice on untreated roads and also some freezing fog in some valleys.

MONDAY ... Cold with mixed wintry showers likely, and some snow is possible at times in higher parts of Connacht and Ulster. Highs no better than 5-8 C. East to northeast winds 30-50 km/hr with stronger gusts near Irish Sea. There could be some brief sunny intervals mainly in the south and east.

TUESDAY ... Little change with widespread mixed wintry showers, risk of snow on higher terrain in north. Morning lows near -1 C and afternoon highs 6-9 C. Moderate E to NE winds in north will add a chill.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... If there is to be a more widespread and sustained snowfall event, it will likely cover the north at about this time frame ... otherwise the outcome is likely to be sleet with snow just on higher elevations, and cold rain in the south (the rain in south is more likely in any case). Winds could also become stronger from the E to NE during this period. Highs of only 2 to 5 C in the north, 5 to 8 C in the south, and continued icy conditions in some places overnight and mornings. The precipitation could also include sleet and even some freezing rain in north-central regions.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... There is still some risk of snow or sleet, even patchy freezing rain, in the north but for counties south of a line Meath to Galway, this is probably going to turn out to be a somewhat milder interval with heavy rain spreading across all regions, possibly 50-75 mm, in strong E to SE winds 50-80 km/hr. We'll be narrowing down the specifics later in the weekend or by Monday for how much rain and what, if any risk of snow ... most probable temperatures are about 7-9 C although it could stay 2-5 C in the north at least for part of this period.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some models are showing hints of warmer weather to follow, others want to keep very chilly air masses over the region until Easter. The chances of a gradual warming trend seem better to this forecaster at present and there has been a slight drift in that direction on the latest model runs.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Variable cloud, wintry showers, some hail with thunder. Highs 6-9 C on lower ground but 3-6 C in parts of Wales, and 2-5 C in much of Scotland, northern England although the west coasts could be closer to 7 C. Some heavy falls of wet snow are possible in Scotland at times.

TONIGHT ... Wintry showers continuing, snow in parts of Scotland, some icy patches on roads, lows -3 to +1.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, cold or very cold (although somewhat milder in southeast England). Highs generally 4-7 C all week but colder in parts of Scotland and a bit milder in the southeast. Heavy rain at times in south, heavy snow over higher parts of the north and sometimes also closer to sea level. Scotland has a much greater chance of seeing prolonged wintry conditions than most other regions in Britain or Ireland as the upper air temperatures there will be similar to what was seen in the south last week.


Forecasts for North America

The recent warm, dry spell in the west is rapidly breaking down with a strong storm developing near Denver CO moving towards the lower Great Lakes. Heavy snow is likely in the central and northern plains states and the Canadian prairies (15-30 cm could fall in some places). By tonight and tomorrow, rain will spread north and cover large parts of the south central states, Midwest, Ohio valley. The storm will try to lift warmer air into the lower Great Lakes but will probably develop a coastal feature about then, cutting off the warming and turning rain to sleet then snow over much of the inland northeast U.S. and lower Great Lakes. Very warm and increasingly humid near the Gulf coast, and warm, dry weather in the southwest, clearing on the west coast as yesterday's rain becomes squally hail showers over the Rockies (turning to snow east of Calgary).

My local weather on Saturday started showery, ended up dry with brief sunny intervals, and the high was about 10 C.

HAPPY ST PATRICK's DAY

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 17 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for widespread icy or slippery roads both this morning (to about 10:00h) and overnight into Monday morning. Also, ALERT for widespread hail or snow showers the next several days and a slight to moderate risk of heavy accumulations of snow in northern and central (inland) counties mid-week, not just on hills but at lower elevations ... although it's later in March than the previous event, this one has less dry air to overcome and an abundant supply of moisture. Counties north of a line from Galway to Dublin (and in particular inland parts of Ulster) could see some significant snow cover developing especially around Wednesday.

TODAY -- St. Patrick's Day -- After another somewhat frosty start with partly cloudy skies in much of the country, but areas of sleety or wintry showers in parts of the north and west, the mid-day and afternoon will probably see more widespread wintry and possibly thundery showers of hail, sleet and (over hills in the north) snow. Although winds will turn more northerly in most regions, they will only be moderately strong in the west (30-50 km/hr), considerably lighter in other regions. Highs 6-8 C in the southeast but otherwise 3-6 C, temperatures falling even lower by evening.

TONIGHT ... Outbreaks of sleet or cold rain (south, east) and hill snow (north, west) with lows between -2 and +2 C. One or two places may clear for a while and drop briefly to -5 C. Expect some ice on untreated roads and also some freezing fog in some valleys.

MONDAY ... Cold with mixed wintry showers likely, and some snow is possible at times in higher parts of Connacht and Ulster. Highs no better than 5-8 C. East to northeast winds 30-50 km/hr with stronger gusts near Irish Sea. There could be some brief sunny intervals mainly in the south and east.

TUESDAY ... Little change with widespread mixed wintry showers, risk of snow on higher terrain in north. Morning lows near -1 C and afternoon highs 6-9 C. Moderate E to NE winds in north will add a chill.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... If there is to be a more widespread and sustained snowfall event, it will likely cover the north at about this time frame ... otherwise the outcome is likely to be sleet with snow just on higher elevations, and cold rain in the south (the rain in south is more likely in any case). Winds could also become stronger from the E to NE during this period. Highs of only 2 to 5 C in the north, 5 to 8 C in the south, and continued icy conditions in some places overnight and mornings. The precipitation could also include sleet and even some freezing rain in north-central regions.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... There is still some risk of snow or sleet, even patchy freezing rain, in the north but for counties south of a line Meath to Galway, this is probably going to turn out to be a somewhat milder interval with heavy rain spreading across all regions, possibly 50-75 mm, in strong E to SE winds 50-80 km/hr. We'll be narrowing down the specifics later in the weekend or by Monday for how much rain and what, if any risk of snow ... most probable temperatures are about 7-9 C although it could stay 2-5 C in the north at least for part of this period.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some models are showing hints of warmer weather to follow, others want to keep very chilly air masses over the region until Easter. The chances of a gradual warming trend seem better to this forecaster at present and there has been a slight drift in that direction on the latest model runs.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Variable cloud, wintry showers, some hail with thunder. Highs 6-9 C on lower ground but 3-6 C in parts of Wales, and 2-5 C in much of Scotland, northern England although the west coasts could be closer to 7 C. Some heavy falls of wet snow are possible in Scotland at times.

TONIGHT ... Wintry showers continuing, snow in parts of Scotland, some icy patches on roads, lows -3 to +1.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, cold or very cold (although somewhat milder in southeast England). Highs generally 4-7 C all week but colder in parts of Scotland and a bit milder in the southeast. Heavy rain at times in south, heavy snow over higher parts of the north and sometimes also closer to sea level. Scotland has a much greater chance of seeing prolonged wintry conditions than most other regions in Britain or Ireland as the upper air temperatures there will be similar to what was seen in the south last week.


Forecasts for North America

The recent warm, dry spell in the west is rapidly breaking down with a strong storm developing near Denver CO moving towards the lower Great Lakes. Heavy snow is likely in the central and northern plains states and the Canadian prairies (15-30 cm could fall in some places). By tonight and tomorrow, rain will spread north and cover large parts of the south central states, Midwest, Ohio valley. The storm will try to lift warmer air into the lower Great Lakes but will probably develop a coastal feature about then, cutting off the warming and turning rain to sleet then snow over much of the inland northeast U.S. and lower Great Lakes. Very warm and increasingly humid near the Gulf coast, and warm, dry weather in the southwest, clearing on the west coast as yesterday's rain becomes squally hail showers over the Rockies (turning to snow east of Calgary).

My local weather on Saturday started showery, ended up dry with brief sunny intervals, and the high was about 10 C.

HAPPY ST PATRICK's DAY

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 18 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for scattered outbreaks of sleet, hail and snow, the snow is most likely on Tuesday and Wednesday in north Leinster, Ulster and inland Connacht. Some heavy wet snow accumulations could do damage to tender vegetation. .

TODAY ... Cold with mixed wintry showers likely, and some snow is possible at times in higher parts of Connacht and Ulster. Highs no better than 5-8 C. East to northeast winds 20-40 km/hr mainly north of Dublin to Galway, winds more light and variable south. There could be some brief sunny intervals mainly in the south and east. Sleet or snow and/or cold rain accumulations of 10-15 mm in some parts of the north, average amounts closer to 2-5 mm south.

TONIGHT ... Further sleet or snow showers, becoming heavy at times in Ulster. Cold but extensive cloud may prevent frost, lows generally -1 to +1 C.

TUESDAY ... Continued very cold for this late in the season, with more widespread mixed wintry showers, increasing risk of snow on higher terrain in north and later on lower elevations too. Some falls of 5-15 cm possible in Ulster and far northern Leinster (south Derry-Tyrone-Fermanagh-Cavan-Monaghan appear best situated) ... highs 6-9 C in the south, possibly as low as 3-4 C north. Moderate E to NE winds in north will add a chill.

WEDNESDAY ... Snow or sleet continuing in north (becoming more prevalent in east Ulster later) with sleet, hail or rain showers mostly south of Dublin to Mayo. Morning lows -2 to +1 C and highs 6-9 C south, 2-5 C north.

THURSDAY ... Snow changing to sleet or freezing rain then rain in Ulster, otherwise, periods of rain moving north and becoming heavy at times. Winds gradually increasing E-SE 50-80 km/hr by late in the day. Morning lows about zero to 2 C and afternoon highs 6-8 C. Feeling raw and cold but actually a bit milder for the north.

FRIDAY ... Further outbreaks of rain, becoming showery, and a little milder again, highs near 10-12 C south, 6-8 C north, in moderate SE winds gusting to 70 km/hr, easing to moderate southerlies.

OUTLOOK ... The latest guidance has that look of a slow warming trend in general towards the end of the month, and any dry days could finally see some reasonably warm temperatures into the 12-15 C range, so fingers crossed that the trend of backward spring weather will soon be a thing of the past.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Outbreaks of heavy sleet or wet snow in the north, cold rain showers closer to sea level and in some parts of the south. Also, a few sunny intervals in south central England, Midlands, Wales, with isolated showers of hail or rain (snow on higher slopes). Highs 2-5 C north, 7-10 C south.

TONIGHT ... Snow and very cold in Scotland, sleet in northern England, lows about -3 C in parts of Scotland and -1 C in northern England. Sleet or rain further south, lows 2-4 C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, cold or very cold (although somewhat milder in southeast England). Highs generally 4-7 C all week but colder in parts of Scotland and a bit milder in the southeast. Heavy rain at times in south, heavy snow over higher parts of the north and sometimes also closer to sea level. Scotland has a much greater chance of seeing severe wintry conditions than most other regions in Britain or Ireland (Tuesday to Thursday, or even Friday in the far north), as the upper air temperatures there will be similar to what was seen in the south last week.


Forecasts for North America

Rain is moving north towards the Great Lakes and northeast U.S. but it may start as wet snow or sleet especially inland away from the Atlantic coast, with fog and east winds. A cold, dry air mass is slowly retreating from its base in Quebec, and much warmer air is trying to push north but this storm is rather sluggish and will redevelop a coastal centre before much warming can take place in the Ohio valley (which may struggle up to 7-9 C in fog and drizzle). Temperatures across the southeast U.S. will be into the 20-25 C range briefly and there could be some severe storms later today as a strengthening cold front develops. Cold air is moving south behind this storm and will cover the Midwest in unseasonable chill near freezing (by now, the average daytime highs around Chicago are well into the 10-15 C range). This cold air is being pushed out of the far western prairies and northern plains states by a mild Pacific flow and further snow is likely at intervals for the next week or two along a storm track that seems almost locked in across the Midwest, lower Great Lakes and interior northeast U.S. -- and now, this March is about 15 degrees colder than last March which was the second warmest on record (behind 1945) in many places. This is actually good news for many because it generally means more soil moisture will likely be available by May-July in drought-prone regions.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny with rather brisk winds that felt cold despite a high near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 19 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for scattered outbreaks of sleet, hail and snow, the snow is most likely today and Wednesday in north Leinster, Ulster and inland Connacht. Some heavy wet snow accumulations could do damage to tender vegetation. ADVANCE ALERT for heavy rainfalls and strong winds on Thursday into early Friday, 30-50 mm rain in south.

TODAY ... Continued very cold for this late in the season, with more widespread mixed wintry showers, increasing risk of snow in north including lower elevations too. Additional snowfalls of 4-8 cm possible in Ulster and far northern Leinster (south Derry-Tyrone-Fermanagh-Cavan-Monaghan appear best situated) ... snow at times in Dublin region is more likely to acccumulate on higher elevations and also during the morning hours as well as overnight ... highs 6-9 C in the south, possibly as low as 3-4 C north. Moderate E to NE winds 20-40 km/hr in north will add wind chill (at times, feeling more like zero to -3 C).

TONIGHT ... Possible heavy wet snow in Ulster (5-10 cm in some places), and higher parts of Leinster and Connacht. Sleet or rain dying out across the south, some clearing later, frost or ice and lows falling to -2 C or lower, but remaining closer to zero C in the snowfall zone.

WEDNESDAY ... Snow or sleet continuing in north (becoming more prevalent in east Ulster later, 5-8 cm accumulations possible) with sleet, hail or rain showers mostly south of Dublin to Mayo but also a few sunny intervals between showers. Morning lows -2 to +1 C and highs 6-9 C south, 2-5 C north.

THURSDAY ... Snow changing to sleet or freezing rain then rain in Ulster, otherwise, periods of rain moving north and becoming heavy at times (30 to 50 mm possible in south, 20-40 mm north-central and east). Winds gradually increasing E-SE 50-80 km/hr by late in the day. Morning lows about zero to 2 C and afternoon highs 6-8 C. Feeling raw and cold but actually a bit milder for the north.

FRIDAY ... Further outbreaks of rain (5-15 mm), becoming showery, and a little milder again, highs near 10-12 C south, 6-8 C north, in moderate SE winds gusting to 70 km/hr, easing to moderate southerlies.

OUTLOOK ... This part of the forecast has become quite uncertain (again) as the models continue to play a form of blind man's bluff with the pattern beyond Friday, now there are some solutions showing continued cold easterly flow (pushing back against the slight mild tendency at the end of the week) and other solutions bringing a very slow warming trend as speculated previously. Most of the more aggressive cold solutions in the past week have proven to be a touch overdone so I would say 60-40 chance of the slight warming trend winning out, but really after such a cold month (going back to about mid-February) the pattern seems stubborn enough to hang around an extra week (or two, etc). We could expect more clarity on this tomorrow, as the strong low pressure for Thursday becomes more clearly defined.


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Continuing outbreaks of heavy sleet or snow in the north with some accumulations mainly in Scotland and inland northeast England of 5-15 cm, cold rain showers closer to sea level and in some parts of the south, hail and thunder possible at times in the southeast. Also, a few sunny intervals in southern England, west Midlands, Wales, with isolated showers of hail or rain (snow on higher slopes). Highs 1-4 C north, 7-10 C south. Some higher parts of Scotland could have temperatures below freezing at times even during the mid-day hours (during snowfall).

TONIGHT ... Heavy snow and very cold in Scotland mixing with rain or sleet in lower elevations of northern England, lows about -4 C in parts of Scotland and -2 C in northern England. Sleet or wet snow, hail further south, lows near zero C.

OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, cold or very cold (although somewhat milder in southeast England). Highs generally 4-7 C all week but colder in parts of Scotland and a bit milder in the southeast. Heavy rain at times in south with potential for flooding in southwest England and south Wales, heavy snow over higher parts of the north and sometimes also closer to sea level. Scotland has a much greater chance of seeing severe wintry conditions than most other regions in Britain or Ireland (Tuesday to Friday and possibly also continuing on the weekend), as the upper air temperatures there will be similar to what was seen in the south last week.


Forecasts for North America

Heavy snow inland northeast, sleet or rain closer to the Atlantic coast, and sleet turning to wet snow in the Great Lakes region as a two-part storm continues to push slowly northeast. Highs 0-2 C but closer to 5 C near the shore. Very warm air covers the south central and southwest states, but in between (southeast U.S., central plains states) cloudy and near normal temperatures. Remnants of a strong cold front will be crossing Florida's northern third today before dying out later. Very cold weather continues in most of inland western Canada but this trends to near normal temperatures on the west coast, with outbreaks of light snow on a weak front across the Rockies.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and cool, highs near 8 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 20 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for more outbreaks of sleet, hail and snow, the snow is most likely today in higher portions of Ulster, inland north Leinster and Dublin, and inland Connacht. This phase of wintry precip should end late tonight except on highest summits, but a return engagement is scheduled for Sunday to Tuesday and that time it may cover a larger proportion of the country (eventually, see forecasts). ADVANCE ALERT for heavy rainfalls and strong winds on Thursday into early Friday, 30-50 mm rain in south, spot flooding likely, and strong E-SE winds gusting to 100 km/hr in exposed locations.

TODAY ... Snow or sleet continuing in north (becoming more prevalent in higher inland portions of Ulster later today, 5-8 cm accumulations possible) with sleet, hail or rain showers in most other regions, some of these rather heavy this morning in Dublin and Meath with slight risk of thunder (hail, sleet, snow at various times) ... but also a few sunny intervals developing later between showers. Winds falling off to light or moderate N-NE then rising towards evening in the south (E-SE 30-50 km/hr) ... highs 6-9 C south, 2-5 C north. Showery rainfalls or equivalent only 2-5 mm but 5-15 mm north.

TONIGHT ... Rain arriving during the evening in the south will make slow progress north and winds will increase to E-SE 40-60 km/hr. Cold but largely frost-free with lows 1-3 C, however, Ulster could see mixed precipitation and temperatures steady near zero or +1 C.

THURSDAY ... Sleet or freezing rain then afternoon rain in Ulster, otherwise, periods of rain moving north and becoming heavy at times (20 to 40 mm possible in south during this daytime period, 15-30 mm north-central and east). Winds gradually increasing E-SE 50-80 km/hr by late in the day. Morning temperatures rather raw about 3-4 C and afternoon or evening highs 6-8 C except 4-6 C north. THURSDAY NIGHT will continue windy and wet with a further 20-30 mm of rain and spot flooding likely in poorly drained locations in south, central and east. Temperatures will be steady 3-5 C and winds could peak at 70-100 km/hr before easing slightly as winds veer ESE to SSE. Foggy especially over hills and in north, inland southeast.

FRIDAY ... Further outbreaks of rain (5-15 mm), becoming showery, and a little milder again, highs near 10 C south and west, 6-8 C north and east, in moderate SSE winds gusting to 70 km/hr, easing to moderate 30-50 km/hr. Fog continuing over hills and parts of north.

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy and colder as winds back into ESE again, at average speeds of 40-60 km/hr. Temperatures steady 3-5 C then falling slightly in north. Light rain or drizzle may begin to turn sleety then mix with ice pellets or snow in north by afternoon. A raw and cold day, especially on higher terrain.

SUNDAY ... Windy and very cold with mixed wintry showers, quite often taking the form of snow or ice pellets, and extending gradually further south and west during the morning and mid-day hours, with temperatures struggling to move upwards from morning values of 2-4 C. Winds easterly 40-70 km/hr.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Windy and very cold, further wintry showers or snow, and the risk of heavy accumulations in Leinster and Ulster, slight risk of some accumulation near south coast and high risk of snow and ice on any terrain above 150m in all regions. Highs only 3-5 C and overnight lows falling somewhat below freezing. Ice will be a bigger problem than frost due to the winds, but agricultural interests should note this will be a prolonged spell of rather severe weather given the time of year. Snow could accumulate to 15 cm or more in some places (details to be worked out closer to the event, but would think north Leinster, inland Ulster prime for this, higher slopes of Dublin and Wicklow mountains also likely).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There are faint signs of a gradual end to this prolonged period of unusual cold and "blocked" weather starting later next week. The details are uncertain in the extreme but it could be closer to seasonable weather (highs 10-13 C) by the Easter weekend and early April.
Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Snow at times in Scotland and northern England. Mixed wintry showers on higher terrain in central England and Wales, isolated rain showers at lower elevations. Not as windy as recent days, highs generally 4-7 C in the south, to 1-3 C north.

TONIGHT ... Further snow in Scotland and northern England, foggy and cold elsewhere, a few light and mixed showers, rain arriving in southwest England and south Wales later. Lows -2 to +2 C.

THURSDAY ... Windy with heavy rain starting as heavy sleet or snow in regions north of about B'ham to Lincoln ... some heavy falls of snow in north. Winds increasing to E-SE 50-90 km/hr with higher gusts near south coast. Temperatures slowly rising to reach 8-10 C south, 4-6 C central, 2-4 C north.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... Mild air will stall then be pushed back south, never reaching Scotland or northeast England, and any sleet or rain in the north will change back to snow as cold east winds redevelop. This snow will move south somewhat erratically (daytime heating will change phase back to rain) but by the end of this period, snow could be falling almost anywhere except perhaps the far southwest, with temperatures very cold for late March (0-2 C).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... See Ireland forecast, same general evolution from Monday onwards (very cold with heavy snow at times in Scotland and northeast England).


Forecasts for North America

Snow moving away from most of New England into Maritime provinces of Canada, but continuing most of the day in Maine. Windy and cold in other parts of the northeast with some flurries well inland, sunshine at times near the Atlantic coast. Cloudy further south, outbreaks of light rain or sleet along a warm front that will be sliding east rather than moving north. Another snowstorm could hit the inland northeast in about five days, so winter is not done yet there either. Meanwhile, very warm in the south central states with a few thunderstorms along a weak cold front just inland from the Gulf into east Texas. Dry and warm further west. Rain is moving inland on the west coast with snow over some parts of the Rockies.

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with light rain or drizzle, and occasional strong wind gusts. It was chilly with the high near 7 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 21 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for heavy rainfalls and strong winds later today into Friday, 30-50 mm rain in south and east, spot flooding likely, and strong E-SE winds gusting to 100 km/hr in exposed locations. ALERT for heavy wet snow in higher parts of east and north later today and Friday, some accumulations of 15-30 cm above 300m, lesser accumulations 150-300m in Ulster, mixing with rain in Leinster ... ADVANCE ALERT for significant cold and isolated heavy snowfalls Sunday to mid-week.

TODAY ... Periods of rain moving north and becoming heavy at times (20 to 40 mm possible in south during this daytime period, 15-30 mm north-central and east). Winds gradually increasing E-SE 50-80 km/hr by late in the day. Morning temperatures rather raw about 3-4 C and afternoon or evening highs 6-8 C except 4-6 C north. Rain may start as heavy wet snow and change to sleet on higher elevations of east and north, remaining heavy snow on hills.

TONIGHT will continue windy and wet with a further 20-30 mm of rain and spot flooding likely in poorly drained locations in south, central and east. Temperatures will be steady 3-5 C and winds could peak at 70-100 km/hr before easing slightly as winds veer ESE to SSE. Foggy especially over hills and in north, inland southeast. Some continued sleet or snow on highest elevations.

FRIDAY ... Further outbreaks of rain (5-15 mm), becoming showery, and a little milder again, highs near 10 C south and west, 6-8 C north and east, in moderate SSE winds gusting to 70 km/hr, easing to moderate 30-50 km/hr. Fog continuing over hills and parts of north. Some risk of heavy snow accumulations in parts of Ulster, above 250m most likely, and even there, snow could change to sleet or rain at times. Temperatures in this mixed precip zone will be 1-2 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy and colder as winds back into ESE again, at average speeds of 40-60 km/hr. Temperatures steady 3-5 C except 5-7 C west Munster, then falling slightly in north. Light rain or drizzle may begin to turn sleety then mix with ice pellets or snow in north by afternoon. Snow may become heavier and accumulate in parts of Ulster as temperatures fall to -1 C. In general, a raw and cold day, especially on higher terrain.

SUNDAY ... Windy and very cold with mixed wintry showers, quite often taking the form of snow or ice pellets, and extending gradually further south and west during the morning and mid-day hours, with temperatures struggling to move upwards from morning values of 2-4 C. Winds easterly 40-70 km/hr. Dry and cold with some sunny intervals in the west, with a few passing flurries. There could be some locally heavy snowfalls in Leinster and Ulster with potential for 5-15 cm accumulations, also from Waterford to Cork on south coast, slight risk of 3-6 cm snow.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Windy and very cold, further wintry showers or snow, and the risk of heavy accumulations in Leinster and Ulster, slight risk of some accumulation near south coast and high risk of snow and ice on any terrain above 150m in all regions. Highs only 3-5 C and overnight lows falling somewhat below freezing. Ice will be a bigger problem than frost due to the winds, but agricultural interests should note this will be a prolonged spell of rather severe weather given the time of year. Snow could accumulate to 15 cm or more in some places (details to be worked out closer to the event, but would think north Leinster, inland Ulster prime for this, higher slopes of Dublin and Wicklow mountains also likely).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There are continuing signs of a gradual end to this prolonged period of unusual cold and "blocked" weather starting later next week. The details are uncertain in the extreme but it could be closer to seasonable weather (highs 10-13 C) by the Easter weekend and early April. One forecast model, however, keeps the region in cold northeast to north winds as far out as early April, so this is not a certainty yet.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Windy with heavy rain (15-30 mm), starting as heavy sleet or snow in regions north of about B'ham to Lincoln ... some heavy falls of snow in north. Winds increasing to E-SE 50-90 km/hr with higher gusts near south coast. Temperatures slowly rising to reach 8-10 C south, 4-6 C central, 2-4 C north.

TONIGHT ... Rain will continue to edge further north, sleet and snow may become heavy over parts of north-central England and southern Scotland. Rain heavy at times in the southwest with flooding in some places. Winds SE 50-80 km/hr.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... Mild air will stall later Friday, and then will be pushed back south, never reaching Scotland or northeast England, and any sleet or rain in the north will change back to snow as cold east winds redevelop. This snow will move south somewhat erratically (daytime heating will change phase back to rain) but by the end of this period, snow could be falling almost anywhere except perhaps the far southwest, with temperatures very cold for late March (0-2 C).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... See Ireland forecast, same general evolution from Monday onwards (very cold with heavy snow at times in Scotland and northeast England).


Forecasts for North America

The dominant weather-maker in North America is a strong arctic high located over north-central Canada where it's mainly clear and about -25 C. This extends a ridge south into the central U.S. and sub-freezing wintry conditions have spread as far south as the Great Lakes, Midwest and parts of the Ohio valley and inland northeast states, after snow fell recently ... today will continue very cold for late March in all these regions with highs -2 to -4 C, trending to partly cloudy and 2-4 C along the east coast where a strong W-NW wind will make it feel just as cold. Snow will develop from an intensifying low moving north into eastern Canada, but this will largely miss New England. Light snow continues to fall in some parts of the inland northeast from the weak secondary low that was following the now-expired storm system. Meanwhile it is quite warm and becoming cloudy with rain to follow in the south central states. This rain turns to sleet then snow further north, and heavy snow will develop later in parts of Montana, North Dakota and Saskatchewan, from a low that is moving through Alberta early morning, bringing a sudden end to a mild chinook event around Calgary and points south. West coast regions are drying out from several days of light rain and can expect partly cloudy skies and near normal temperatures later on.

My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy with a few light showers, and brisk west to northwest winds at times, chilly again with a high of about 7 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 22 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for locally heavy rainfalls this morning in parts of Clare, Galway, possibly extending into Mayo and Roscommon later, 10-20 mm could fall within a three hour period ... also some parts of north and central Leinster could see torrential downpours at times ... after a break in the mixed precipitation, Ulster will begin to see heavy snow at times mid-day intensifying this evening and overnight, some accumulations of 20-40 cm on higher terrain, 10-25 cm with some mixing on lower terrain ... this snow could extend south during Saturday to cover parts of Leinster and inland Connacht but amounts there closer to 5-10 cm. Strong E-SE winds gusting to 80 km/hr in exposed locations now confined mostly to east and north Ulster will abate mid-day ... ADVANCE ALERT for significant cold and isolated heavy snowfalls Sunday to mid-week.

TODAY ... Further outbreaks of rain (5-15 mm south and 10-30 mm north-central), becoming showery, slight risk of a thunderstorm and a little milder again, highs near 11 C south and west, 6-8 C north and east, in moderate SSE winds gusting to 70 km/hr, easing to moderate 30-50 km/hr. Fog continuing over hills and parts of north. After a break this morning in most parts, the risk of heavy snow accumulations resumes in parts of Ulster, above 150m most likely, while closer to sea level, snow could change to sleet or rain at times. Temperatures in this mixed precip zone will fall back to about 1-2 C. By contrast, it may feel spring-like in Munster for parts of the afternoon with passing showers and some brief sunny intervals.

TONIGHT ... Intermittent light rain across most of Ireland but snow becoming heavy in Ulster and a few higher locations elsewhere ... snowfalls of 10-30 cm possible in Ulster by morning ... winds backing to ESE 40-60 km/hr with some higher gusts in east and north, but not as windy in southwest. Further rainfalls in south 5-10 mm. Lows about 2-5 C south, -1 C in Ulster where blizzard conditions will become likely in open areas especially higher routes, travel may be disrupted.

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy and colder, as winds back into ESE for all regions, at average speeds of 40-60 km/hr. Temperatures steady 3-5 C except 5-7 C west Munster, then falling slightly in north. Light rain or drizzle may begin to turn sleety then mix with ice pellets or snow in north by afternoon. Snow may become heavier and accumulate in parts of Ulster as temperatures fall to -1 C. In general, a raw and cold day, especially on higher terrain.

SATURDAY NIGHT ... Evening rain or sleet will change to snow for a time in the south, and some further outbreaks of snow central and northern counties, accumulations generally 3-5 cm but mainly in rural areas and above 100m asl. Lows -2 to +1 C in brisk easterly winds 50-80 km/hr. Feeling as cold as -10.

SUNDAY ... Windy and very cold with mixed wintry showers, quite often taking the form of snow or ice pellets, and extending gradually further south and west during the morning and mid-day hours, with temperatures struggling to move upwards from morning values of 2-4 C. Winds easterly 40-70 km/hr. Dry and cold with some sunny intervals in the west, with a few passing flurries. There could be some locally heavy snowfalls in Leinster and Ulster with potential for 5-15 cm accumulations, also from Waterford to Cork on south coast, slight risk of 3-6 cm snow. Wind chills near -5 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Windy and very cold, further wintry showers or snow, and the risk of heavy accumulations in Leinster and Ulster, slight risk of some accumulation near south coast and high risk of snow and ice on any terrain above 150m in all regions. Highs only 3-5 C and overnight lows falling somewhat below freezing. Ice will be a bigger problem than frost due to the winds, but agricultural interests should note this will be a prolonged spell of rather severe weather given the time of year. Snow could accumulate to 15 cm or more in some places (details to be worked out closer to the event, but would think north Leinster, inland Ulster prime for this, higher slopes of Dublin and Wicklow mountains also likely).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The Easter weekend may see a rather dismal mix of rain, sleet with wet snow at higher elevations, with temperatures about 4-7 C in continuing east winds. There are still signs of a warming trend around the first week of April but nothing too spectacular, perhaps a return to what might be considered cool in a normal spring rather than this current wintry scenario (excluding today in the south). However, I would not abandon hope that the Easter weekend will turn warmer than this model consensus as there are very slight downgrades in the cold parameters in the first five days (not enough to change the forecast much but perhaps a sign of weakening of the blocking set-up).


Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Heavy snow continuing in parts of the Midlands spreading north to cover northern England and southern Scotland later, 10-20 cm in some places, travel disruptions likely. Rain held in its current position across the south, may advance slightly north at times but this trend will be reversed by late today. Highs 8-10 C south, 4-7 C south central, 0-2 C Midlands north and below freezing in some parts of the higher north and inland Scotland. Winds SE 40-70 km/hr but 60-100 km/hr at times in northeast England and eastern Scotland.

TONIGHT ... Snow and blizzard conditions continuing in central and northern regions, some mixing of rain with snow later in south as temperatures there fall to 2-4 C, otherwise temperatures steady near freezing or -1 C. Winds E 40-70 km/hr.

WEEKEND ... Mild air will be pushed back further south, covering most of southern England on Saturday and all of the southwest during Sunday, and any sleet or rain left over will change back to snow as cold east winds redevelop. This snow will move south somewhat erratically (daytime heating will change phase back to rain) but by the end of this period, snow could be falling almost anywhere except perhaps the far southwest, with temperatures very cold for late March (0-2 C).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... See Ireland forecast, same general evolution from Monday onwards (very cold with heavy snow at times in Scotland and northeast England). Winds throughout will be brisk easterly and temperatures near record low values, -3 C overnight, +3 C daytime on average.


Forecasts for North America

A rather small storm system has moved north into eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland and strong winds extend as far back west as about Boston, with snow across parts of eastern Canada today and wind gusts to 120 km/hr. The rest of the northeast U.S. and Great Lakes regions will be dry and cold with scattered lake effect flurries, highs no better than 2-4 C. Extensive cloud and outbreaks of light rain from about Missouri east to the Carolinas, ahead of a developing late winter storm that will bring heavy snow to the mid-Mississippi valley later this weekend, then the Ohio valley by Monday-Tuesday. Continued rather warm to the south near the Gulf coast with highs 23-27 C. Yesterday's disruptive snowstorm in Alberta has moved into Saskatchewan and eastern Montana, very poor driving conditions expected (the storm produced huge multi-vehicle accidents south of Edmonton on Thursday). Partly cloudy and seasonable conditions near the west coast.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny with cloudy intervals, breezy and about 11 C for a high.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 23 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for outbreaks of snow today and tonight in parts of Ulster, north Leinster and inland Connacht, amounts highly variable but isolated 10-20 cm possible ... icy roads and some disruptions in these regions ... ADVANCE ALERT for significant snowfall and unseasonable cold, frosts and icy roads at times Sunday to mid-week, all regions except far southwest.

TODAY ... Not as windy but colder except in parts of Munster, as winds back into ESE for all regions, at average speeds of 35-55 km/hr. Temperatures steady 3-5 C except 6-8 C west Munster, 1-3 Ulster. Light rain or drizzle may begin to turn sleety then mix with ice pellets or snow in north Leinster by mid-day, meanwhile outbreaks of snow, sleet or icy rain will continue in various parts of Ulster. Snow may become heavier and accumulate in parts of Ulster and later in north Leinster as temperatures fall to -1 to +1 C. Sleet may change to snow in higher parts of central Leinster. In general, a raw and cold day, especially on higher terrain. For Dublin especially lower elevations, the raw drizzle will continue at times until evening then mix with snow. Here, temperatures will be steady 4-5 C. Aside from parts of eastern NI, the inland portions of Louth and Meath, and also Westmeath, Longford, Monaghan, Cavan, Leitrim and inland Donegal are most at risk for snow mid-day and afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Evening rain or sleet will change to snow for a time in the south, and there may be some further outbreaks of snow central and northern counties, accumulations generally 3-5 cm but mainly in rural areas and above 100m asl. Lows -2 to +1 C in brisk easterly winds 40-70 km/hr. Feeling as cold as -10 in parts of north Leinster. Not quite as cold in west Munster, lows about 2-3 C, drizzle at times, sleet on hills.

SUNDAY ... Windy and very cold with mixed wintry showers, quite often taking the form of snow or ice pellets, and extending gradually further south and west during the morning and mid-day hours, with temperatures struggling to move upwards from morning values of 2-4 C. Winds easterly 40-70 km/hr. Dry and cold with some sunny intervals in the west, with a few passing flurries. There could be some locally heavy snowfalls in Leinster and Ulster with potential for 5-15 cm accumulations, also from Waterford to Cork on south coast, slight risk of 3-6 cm snow by evening or overnight into Monday morning. Wind chills near -5 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Windy and very cold, further wintry showers or snow, and the risk of heavy accumulations in Leinster and Ulster, slight risk of some accumulation near south coast and high risk of snow and ice on any terrain above 150m in all regions. Highs only 3-5 C and overnight lows falling somewhat below freezing. Ice will be a bigger problem than frost due to the winds, but agricultural interests should note this will be a prolonged spell of rather severe weather given the time of year. Snow could accumulate to 15 cm or more in some places notably inland Meath, Dublin, Kildare, Westmeath, Laois, east Ulster and higher slopes of Dublin and Wicklow mountains also likely to see accumulations ... the usual urban variations around Dublin are likely but this time the distribution may be different than previously).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Further snowfall may develop, mixing with sleet, around Thursday as a low cuts under the cold easterly flow and moves across southern Britain. After that, the Easter weekend may be a period of slow recovery to somewhat more normal temperatures although still a bit below seasonal normals, with some appearances of sunshine and some mixed wintry showers here and there. Frosts will continue but daytime highs could get closer to 10 C eventually.


Forecasts for Britain

THIS WEEKEND ... Mild air will be pushed back further south, as colder air begins to cover most of southern England on Saturday and all of the southwest during Sunday, and any sleet or rain left over will change back to snow as cold east winds redevelop. This snow will move south somewhat erratically (daytime heating will change phase back to rain) but by the end of this period, snow could be falling almost anywhere except perhaps the far southwest, with temperatures very cold for late March (0-2 C). Today, the heaviest falls of snow will be in Wales, west Midlands, parts of Yorkshire, northeast England and eastern Scotland. Tonight, they may become more scattered throughout these regions but also will include portions of east Anglia and the greater London region, south central counties. By Sunday, snowfall will be more isolated and related to east winds from the North Sea, as well as outbreaks near the Channel.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... See Ireland forecast, same general evolution from Monday onwards (very cold with heavy snow at times in Scotland and northeast England). Winds throughout will be brisk easterly and temperatures near record low values, -3 C overnight, +3 C daytime on average. There could be heavy snow again around Thursday-Friday in some higher parts of the south and east, with rain near sea level.


Forecasts for North America

Extensive cloud and rain developing in the south central states will turn to snow over central plains states tonight and Sunday. This snowfall will move through the Ohio valley, lower Great Lakes, inland northeast next 2-3 days, prolonging the already overdrawn winter season. Coastal regions near the Atlantic will stay somewhat milder in mixed rain and snow at times once this storm arrives but most will have a cool, dry weekend with some sunshine at times. Stormy in eastern Canada, some heavy snowfalls. Unseasonably cold in most of western Canada also, further outbreaks of snow likely in Alberta, clear and very cold eastern prairies. Milder and largely dry in far west.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy with outbreaks of isolated hail showers that missed my location. Highs 8-10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 24 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for locally heavy snowfalls and unseasonable cold, frosts and icy roads at times from later today in north, to mid-week central and south, snowfall most likely in parts of north Leinster and Ulster.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, dry in most regions, and very cold in a raw east wind 40-70 km/hr. Highs 2-4 C except 5-7 C in west Munster where not quite as cold. Some sleety showers could develop in parts of Leinster turning more to snow during the afternoon and evening, but coverage may be sparse until perhaps tonight. Watch for updates. Patchy light rain or drizzle in west Munster at times, turning to sleet on hills.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals mainly well to the west, very cold, icy roads developing although humidity levels may be low enough to make this a rather patchy outcome ... lows -4 to -2 C for most, -1 to +2 C in coastal southwest. Risk of some accumulating snow in streamers across parts of north Leinster and east to north Ulster. Amounts generally slight but potential for 5-15 cm.

MONDAY ... Little change with cold east winds, some sunny intervals more likely in the west, some wintry showers including some accumulations of snow mainly in north Leinster and near south coast, also in parts of Ulster. Highs about 2-4 C, winds E 40-70 km/hr.

MONDAY NIGHT through THURSDAY ... The overnight hours will be bitterly cold during the week, lows could reach -8 C near snow cover in the north and otherwise near -5 C although closer to -2 C east coast and south coast due to the slight modifying effects of open water. Some snow could develop at times mostly during evening hours continuing on from daytime developments ... The days mid-week will be very cold with about equal mixtures of cloud and sunshine although tending more sunny in the west, with greater risk of snowfall in isolated streamers near east coast, south coast and parts of Ulster. Amounts with these could at any time reach 5-15 cm in rather limited regions. Over time, Meath, Dublin, Wicklow, Waterford and inland southeast, east Ulster are regions most likely to see at least slight accumulations during the period. Details may change as we pick up indications of trough features or better short-term satellite and radar indications.

FURTHER OUTLOOK for EASTER WEEKEND ... The outlook is very uncertain since model output ranges from continued cold with snow potential (in central and north), sleet or rain potential (in south), to dry cold, to other solutions that include gradual warming and showers. The most likely outcome based on a weighted blend of reliable guidance is for intervals of sleet or snow turning more to rain through the period. It should be noted that there is some potential for a disruptive snow event in the mix, most likely on Good Friday and across inland south and east.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Very cold, outbreaks of snow in east, central regions, some brief sunny intervals in a few places, highs generally near 1 or 2 C but closer to 4 C in the southwest. Winds east 40-70 km/hr. Generally speaking, snowfall amounts lighter than previous days but some local additional 5-8 cm and more blowing and drifting of snow already on ground.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, isolated snow flurries or heavier falls in some parts of east, lows -6 to -3 C but could drop to -10 C in Scotland well inland.

OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland from Monday onward with the same uncertainty about developments around Easter weekend, although in general it will be even colder in central, northern England and most of Scotland. If skies clear extensively at any point, watch for some record low temperatures below -10 C to be recorded.


Forecasts for North America

Snow will move rapidly east from Kansas to cover Missouri, southern IL-IN and most of KY, while rain moves east from Arkansas to cover TN, most of the southeast and severe storms may fire up in north-central Florida affecting among other things the final round of the golf event from Orlando. Dry and cold further north across most of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes states into eastern Canada. Cold and dry in most of western Canada but seasonable near the coast with increasing cloud, rain by tonight.

My local weather on Saturday was cloudy with sunny intervals and pleasant although a bit on the cold side in the shade as the high was 8 C.

M.T. Cranium

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 25 March, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for risk of locally heavy snowfalls and the certainty of unseasonable cold, frosts and icy roads at times from later today in north, to mid-week central and south, any snowfall most likely in parts of north Leinster and Ulster, possibly extending to midlands and south coast at times. ADVANCE ALERT for risk of wintry precipitation over the Easter weekend period, currently assessed as "moderate" or about 50-60 per cent likely as guidance is somewhat split on this outcome.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with cold east winds, some sunny intervals more likely in the west, some wintry showers including some accumulations of snow mainly in north Leinster and east Ulster (Meath, Westmeath, Longford, also Cavan, Monaghan, Louth) and by later today also near south coast and in Wicklow and Wexford. Amounts generally light but potential for 5-15 cm locally in streamers. Highs about 2-4 C, winds E 40-70 km/hr.

TONIGHT through THURSDAY ... The overnight hours will be bitterly cold all through the week, and lows could reach -8 C near snow cover in the north and otherwise near -5 C although closer to -2 C east coast and south coast due to the slight modifying effects of open water. Tonight, snow may continue in some places from developments this afternoon, watch for updates. In general, for overnight hours this week, some snow could develop at times mostly during evening hours continuing on from daytime developments ... The days mid-week will be very cold with about equal mixtures of cloud and sunshine although tending more sunny in the west, with greater risk of snowfall in isolated streamers near east coast, south coast and parts of Ulster. Amounts with these could at any time reach 5-15 cm in rather limited regions. Over time, Meath, Dublin, Wicklow, Waterford and inland southeast, east Ulster are regions most likely to see at least slight accumulations during the period. Details may change as we pick up indications of trough features or better short-term satellite and radar indications. We expect a similar outcome to that seen two weeks ago where one or two locations saw significant snow, quite a few saw snow without much disruption, and many (particularly west) saw just a few flakes in the wind or no snow at all.

FURTHER OUTLOOK for EASTER WEEKEND ... The outlook remains uncertain since model output ranges from continued cold with snow potential (in south mainly inland, central and possibly north), sleet or rain potential (in south), to dry cold, to other solutions that include gradual warming and showers. The most likely outcome based on a weighted blend of reliable guidance is for intervals of sleet or snow turning more to rain but only near the south coast for that, through the period. It should be noted that there is potential for a disruptive snow event in the mix, most likely on Good Friday and across inland south and east. We currently assess this risk at about 30% likely, with another 40% chance of light non-disruptive snowfall and/or sleet.

Any sort of return to more normal by then April weather appears to be pushed back to about the second week of April now. The culprit remains the very strong blocking high over Greenland and nearby parts of the north polar regions including a lot of northern Canada and far northern Europe -- all over that extensive region pressures are 20-40 mb higher than usually seen and while these pressures might not be that notable for any one location, the extent of them is unusual and is maintaining a frigid easterly flow almost around the hemisphere now (although it pushes well north in my time zone, so we are getting a more modified version of this severe cold, however, eastern and central North America are just as far into the deep freeze if not more so, for example south of Chicago there has been a foot of snow in the past day or two. Last year it was close to 80 deg F or 27 deg C there.)

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Very cold, outbreaks of snow in east, central regions, some brief sunny intervals in a few places, highs generally near 1 or 2 C but closer to 4 C in the southwest. Winds east 40-70 km/hr. Generally speaking, snowfall amounts 1-3 cm at most, with some local additional 3-6 cm and a little more blowing and drifting of snow already on ground.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, isolated snow flurries or heavier falls in some parts of east, lows -6 to -3 C but could drop to -10 C in Scotland well inland.

OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland from Tuesday onward with the same uncertainty about developments around Easter weekend, although in general it will be even colder in central, northern England and most of Scotland. If skies clear extensively at any point, watch for some record low temperatures below -10 C to be recorded.


Forecasts for North America

Snow will continue to move east after covering the Ohio valley and mid-Mississippi valley regions with up to 30 cm in places. Further snowfalls there will be 3-5 cm before partial clearing later, and the storm will weaken somewhat to give 10-20 cm amounts in the inland mid-Atlantic states and parts of s PA, NJ, NYC region and Long Island. This storm may largely miss New England but a light snow could develop close to Long Island Sound and on the outer Cape and Islands. Dry and cold further north. Meanwhile, the southeast will be drying out somewhat from heavy rainfalls on Sunday, in a cool and cloudy westerly flow, with mountain flurries as far south as Georgia later today. Highs in Florida will be pleasant near 20 C but otherwise about 10 to 13 C in the southeast at lower elevations. Clear and rather chilly for the central plains and southern plains states once cloud from the eastern low departs this morning. Clear and very cold in parts of the northern plains and Canadian prairies. Cloudy and near normal temperatures further west trending to light rain on the outer coast by late afternoon or overnight.

My local weather on Sunday was cloudy to start, sunny by afternoon, but it continues a bit cooler than normal at 8-9 C (but I would not want to complain given what most regions are seeing).