Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 16-05-2013 4:32pm

UPDATE _ Thursday 16 May 4:30 p.m.
__________________________________

ALERT for locally torrential rainfalls with spot flooding likely, in a zone extending from south central Ulster through the midlands towards Cork. Amounts of 10-20 mm in three hour periods are being reported and may continue with slow movement of cells or even stationary bands of heavy rainfall. Some roads in this region may experience standing water conditions, travel delays or disruptions can be expected. These conditions could redevelop tomorrow in different locations, the inland west to west coast appear most at risk.

M.T. Cranium · 17-05-2013 7:31am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 17 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for possible isolated heavy rainfalls later today in west-central counties from slow-moving or stationary showers, with some flood risk. Another area of showers could also become heavy across inland north Leinster. ADVANCE ALERT for widespread heavy rainfalls 20-40 mm on Saturday mostly during afternoon and evening, accompanied by gusty N-NE winds 40-60 km/hr and risk of spot flooding.

TODAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, showers and a few thundershowers developing mostly after mid-day, some of these becoming heavier in the west, with an east to west drift -- possible heavy downpours and local spot flooding near west coast and inland, but possibly a better day than most recent ones in parts of the inland east and south where sunshine could at least match cloud or even win out in a few places. Highs 12-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Any lingering showers ending around midnight then some clear intervals with risk of a slight frost in some inland locations of west Munster and south Connacht although closer to midnight than dawn, lows elsewhere generally 2-5 C west and 5-8 C east, clouding over in most places around 02h to sunrise from an easterly direction, followed quickly by light rain arriving in east Ulster.

SATURDAY ... Some morning sunny intervals in west Munster and Atlantic coast further north, otherwise rapidly increasing cloud (becoming scudding low cloud, climbing discouraged as weather will rapidly deteriorate), rain arriving during the morning except for west Munster (mid-day there), becoming heavier by afternoon or evening in the east in particular, as winds increase to NW veering to NE 40-65 km/hr. Highs 11-14 C but quite chilly in the evening rain (7-9 C). Rainfalls of 20-40 mm by midnight then rain ending rather quickly in the early morning hours.

SUNDAY ... Early morning rain tapering off to drizzle and fog, with NE winds peaking around 0200h to 0600h then easing slowly with partial clearing later in the day especially across Connacht which could become sunny, winds by mid-day NE 30-50 km/hr. Morning lows 6-8 C and highs 10-13 C.

MONDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, possibly a dry day for some, as showers will be rather isolated and most likely in northwest as well as parts of east Ulster and Wicklow-Wexford (Irish sea rain or hail streamers may develop), lows 3-6 C and highs about 14-16C . Winds NE backing to N 30-50 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sun, a bit warmer, lows 3-7 C and highs about 15-18 C. Winds generally NW 30-50 km/hr, more chance of cloud or isolated showers near northwest coasts.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The ongoing speculation about how long this warmer dry spell could last continues unresolved with models taking an intermediate approach between an extension of dry weather and a complete collapse back to wind and showers, so a mixture of cloud and sun in gusty northwest winds and isolated showers seems to be the consensus (but all options are possible at this distance). If the weather does become somewhat unsettled again by Thursday or so, it would be more noticeable in Ulster as well as Scotland and northern England than other parts of Ireland and Britain. Some parts of northern Scotland could actually become very cold and almost wintry late next week, so that's how close the call is about a week ahead.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Increasing cloud with outbreaks of rain heavy at times in east, some isolated showers elsewhere with sunshine at times, winds strengthening from the east at 30-50 km/hr, highs 12-16 C (milder inland west).

TONIGHT and SATURDAY ... Heavy rain (30-50 mm) across south-central regions, some sun at times in Scotland but passing showers especially southern half in gusty east to northeast winds. Highs about 12 to 14 C. Winds ENE 45-70 km/hr except for some areas of NW winds in southwest England, falling off somewhat near low pressure centre tracking west through Wales. Low cloud ceilings and dense fog on hills, not overly cold so rain to peak elevations. Some flash flooding possible in Severn, Ouse, Trent, Humber watersheds on smaller tributaries. Roadway flooding possible, travel with caution.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather cloudy overall, some dry days possible next week, see Ireland forecast beyond Tuesday for longer-range trends. Scotland seems more likely to become unsettled later in the week again.

Forecasts for North America

Unsettled in the southeast U.S. but limited severe potential now, as a new energy centre is forming in the plains states, and this will become the focus of any strong thunderstorms by later today (in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska mainly). Widespread light rain further north and west as secondary lows form over the Rockies. The northeast U.S. has turned a bit cooler than recent days but will still enjoy fairly pleasant sunny conditions in the 14-17 C range.

My local weather on Thursday was mostly sunny with a high near 17 C.

(at this time of year recently, as seen from the Craniatorium, "good weather for ducks anyway")

M.T. Cranium · 18-05-2013 7:04am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 18 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for widespread heavy rainfalls 20-30 mm on Saturday mostly during afternoon and evening, accompanied in north and west by gusty N-NE winds 40-60 km/hr with risk of spot flooding most likely in a zone from Louth to Galway, rainfall heaviest in parts of Ulster, north Leinster and Connacht ... see accompanying map ....

TODAY ... Some morning sunny or bright intervals in west Munster and near the Atlantic coast further north, otherwise rapidly increasing cloud (becoming scudding low cloud, climbing discouraged as weather will rapidly deteriorate), rain arriving during the morning except for south and west Munster and parts of southeast (mid-day there), becoming heavier by afternoon or evening in the north-central and inland east in particular, as winds increase to NW veering to NE 40-65 km/hr. Winds further south will be more moderate and will start from a NW direction, perhaps falling off light or calm near disorganized centres of low pressure moving west ... Highs 11-14 C but quite chilly in the evening rain (7-9 C). Rainfalls of 20-30 mm by midnight then rain ending rather quickly in the early morning hours. See accompanying map for regional forecasts, heaviest rain likely near south Ulster, Meath, Westmeath, Longford, Roscommon and east Galway.

TONIGHT ... Rain gradually tapering off to drizzle and fog then ending in some parts of north and east, dense fog especially on higher terrain, winds rather variable but trending northeasterly 20-40 km/hr. Lows 6-9 C.

SUNDAY ... Early morning rain tapering off to drizzle and fog, with NE winds peaking around 0200h to 0600h then easing slowly with partial clearing later in the day especially across Connacht which could become sunny, winds by mid-day NE 30-50 km/hr and highs 13-15 C (values dependent on any sunshine but it will feel rather muggy).

MONDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, possibly a dry day for some, as showers will be rather isolated and most likely in northwest as well as parts of east Ulster and Wicklow-Wexford (Irish sea rain or hail streamers may develop), lows 3-6 C and highs about 14-16C . Winds NE backing to N 30-50 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sun, a bit warmer, lows 3-7 C and highs about 15-18 C. Winds generally NW 30-50 km/hr, more chance of cloud or isolated showers near northwest coasts.

WEDNESDAY ... Sunny intervals but mostly cloudy in north, isolated showers, highs 17-20 C south-central, 14-16 C north. Moderate westerly breezes stronger in north.

OUTLOOK ... Computer models are becoming somewhat more optimistic but we are not really sold (yet) on a prolonged improvement, there are still some signs of a return to unsettled and cooler weather featuring northwest winds and showers at some point towards end of the week or weekend. However, chances are perhaps equal that a dry spell will become established and remain in place, so it's a case of remaining hopeful at this point.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Heavy rain (30-50 mm) across most central regions, some sun at times in Scotland but passing showers especially southern half in gusty east to northeast winds. Highs about 12 to 14 C. Winds ENE 45-70 km/hr except for some areas of NW winds in southwest England, falling off somewhat near low pressure centre tracking west through northern England and north Wales. Low cloud ceilings and dense fog on hills, not overly cold so rain to peak elevations. Some flash flooding possible in Severn, Ouse, Trent, Humber watersheds on smaller tributaries. Roadway flooding possible, travel with caution. Further south, the rain will be more showery and may arrive in narrow bands mid-day or afternoon from a westerly direction as the moisture from the frontal system wraps around the low. Rainfall amounts 5-15 mm in parts of southern England.

TONIGHT and SUNDAY ... Misty or foggy overnight and for a time Sunday morning, then some sunny intervals developing, isolated but potentially thundery showers, a bit warmer too, highs near 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather cloudy overall, some dry days possible next week, see Ireland forecast beyond Tuesday for longer-range trends. Scotland seems more likely to become unsettled later in the week again.

Forecasts for North America

Widespread and increasingly heavy showers, thunderstorms in central plains states, some very severe in Kansas, Nebraska. Hot and dry further south, highs 37-42 C in parts of west Texas, New Mexico and Arizona. Much cooler anywhere north of the Grand Canyon to Denver Colorado, with outbreaks of rain and mountain snow well north into western Canada. Heavy rain spreading through parts of Dakotas into western Minnesota and Manitoba. Dry and warm in eastern U.S. generally, highs 24-27 C.

My local weather on Friday was cloudy with light rain at times, highs near 15C.

M.T. Cranium · 18-05-2013 8:04am

UPDATE _ Sat 18 May 2013 0800h
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Please note also, the heavy rainfall may include thunderstorms with hail in some northern and central regions by afternoon and these will be moving from ENE to WSW at about 50 km/hr.

M.T. Cranium · 19-05-2013 7:03am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 19 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Widespread low cloud, fog or mist, then partial clearing later in the day especially across inland Connacht and midlands which could become sunny, winds by mid-day NE 20-35 km/hr and highs 13-17 C (values dependent on any sunshine, it will feel rather muggy).

TONIGHT ... Mist or fog, low cloud, mild. Lows 6-9 C.

MONDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, possibly a dry day for some, as showers will be rather isolated and most likely in northwest as well as parts of east Ulster and Wicklow-Wexford (Irish sea rain or hail streamers may develop), and highs about 14-16C . Winds NE backing to N 30-50 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sun, a bit warmer, lows 3-7 C and highs about 15-18 C. Winds generally NW 30-50 km/hr, more chance of cloud or isolated showers near northwest coasts.

WEDNESDAY ... Sunny intervals but mostly cloudy in north, isolated showers, highs 17-20 C south-central, 14-16 C north. Moderate westerly breezes stronger in north.

OUTLOOK ... From about Thursday on, temperatures may slide back down by several degrees to about 13-15 C with more cloud than sun, and some areas of light rain or drizzle in east to northeast winds. However, there will also be some sunshine well inland and some places will remain dry. Nights will be fairly mild at 5-8 C.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Misty or foggy this morning, then some sunny intervals developing, isolated but potentially thundery showers, mostly confined to southeast, and a bit warmer too, with highs near 17 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, mild, a few showers mainly in southwest and Wales. Lows about 6-9 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, highs 14-17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather cloudy overall, some dry days possible next week, see Ireland forecast beyond Thursday for longer-range trends. Scotland seems more likely to become unsettled later in the week again.

Forecasts for North America

Widespread rain across the Midwest and northern plains states, parts of eastern Canadian prairies, upper Great Lakes, highs near 15 C in these regions. Showers and some severe thunderstorms in the central plains states, highs 27-32 C, trending to hot and dry in west Texas, 37-42 C. The east coast will be cloudy in general with isolated showers but mostly dry in New England, highs about 15-18 C.

My local weather on Saturday was mostly cloudy with hazy sunshine for brief intervals, one or two very light showers, and muggy with a high of 17 C.

M.T. Cranium · 20-05-2013 7:35am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 20 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A dull start with rather low cloud ceilings, some mist or drizzle more likely in Connacht and midlands, slowly brightening in some regions to become partly to mostly cloudy, a dry day for some, as any measurable rainfall (1-2 mm at most) in showers will be rather isolated and most likely in northwest as well as parts of east Ulster and Wicklow-Wexford (rather weak Irish Sea rain or hail streamers may develop), and highs about 12-15C for most, possibly 16 or 17 C inland south if enough sun gets through the murk. Winds N backing to NW 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Further drizzle near Atlantic coasts, mist or fog, low cloud, mild. Winds falling off to light except in most exposed coastal locations, with overnight lows of 6-9 C for most, 10-11 C Atlantic coastal fringes.

TUESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sun, a bit warmer, lows 3-7 C and highs about 15-18 C. Winds generally NW backing to W 30-50 km/hr (not as strong a breeze inland south or east), more chance of low cloud from an elevated sea fog, mist and isolated showers or drizzle near northwest coasts. A dry day for most, sunshine may be somewhat late to develop but a few parts of the inland east and south could have longer intervals of sunshine.

WEDNESDAY ... Sunny intervals but remaining mostly cloudy in north, with isolated showers or drizzle there, highs 17-20 C south-central, 14-16 C north. Moderate westerly breezes stronger in north.

THURSDAY ... Fresher northwest winds returning, still fairly dry for most, isolated showers as it will be mostly cloudy in north, partly cloudy south and east. Winds NW 40-60 km/hr near coasts, morning lows 6-8 C and afternoon highs 13-17 C with the milder readings south, east coast and Dublin region.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... Cool with moderate northwest winds, isolated showers becoming somewhat more prevalent although still quite a few places dry, mixtures of cloud and sun, highs 13-16 C and possibly only 11-13 C in the north. Frosts not expected but lows only 3-6 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There are hints of this pattern developing nearby low pressure again, near Belgium and northeast France, promoting a moist easterly flow with fog or mist and some light rain towards end of the weekend, and that could be followed by a warmer spell of continental air streaming in from the east to northeast at some point near the end of May or into early June. It's encouraging to see hints of the Azores high linking to the Russian high as both have been fairly prominent but unconnected features recently, disrupted by troughs closer to Ireland that link Mediterranean low pressure to Icelandic lows. If we can see a breakdown of that trough, a prolonged warm, dry spell is possible despite all the recent colder than average weather.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, isolated showers although more prevalent in eastern Wales and later in the west Midlands, Severn valley, highs 14-17 C. Any sunshine may be rather limited but a few spots could become sunny and this is most likely near south coast and in parts of central, western Scotland.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather cloudy overall, some dry days possible next week, see Ireland forecast beyond Tuesday for longer-range trends. Scotland seems more likely to become unsettled later in the week again as the northwest flow will be stronger there, in fact northeast Scotland could become very chilly with mixed wintry showers near the end of the week. That should remain confined to regions north and east of Aberdeen to Stornoway.

Forecasts for North America

Sunday's very widespread severe storm outbreak (OK-KS-NE-SD-IA-MO) will probably redevelop somewhat further east today with more tornadoes likely, hot and humid otherwise with highs 27-32 C. Heavy rain further north is spreading to regions around Minnesota and Lake Superior including parts of Canada within 150 km of the border, with east winds, fog and temperatures there about 12 C. To the south and west of the storm there's a pocket of very warm, dry air that ends with a slowly advancing front closer to the Pacific, to the west and north of that, it's raining in most areas with widespread cloud.

Meanwhile, the eastern states and southern Ontario remain somewhat less active with areas of showers and widespread cloud, highs 17-21 C.

My local weather on Sunday was cloudy with sunny intervals, with a high around 15 C.

M.T. Cranium · 21-05-2013 7:39am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 21 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... After another dull start with low cloud in many locations, the cloud should begin to break up to a mixture of cloud and sun, and it will become a bit warmer, with highs about 15-18 C. Winds generally NW backing to W 30-50 km/hr (not as strong a breeze inland south or east), then by afternoon, more chance of low cloud from an elevated sea fog, mist and isolated showers or drizzle near northwest coasts. A dry day for most, and although sunshine may be somewhat late to develop but a few parts of the inland east and south could have longer intervals of sunshine.

TONIGHT ... Rather cloudy again, mild, lows 5-8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Sunny intervals but remaining mostly cloudy in north, with isolated showers or drizzle there, highs 17-20 C south-central, 14-16 C north. Moderate westerly breezes stronger in north. There could be a few showers moving south through parts of east and central Ulster, north Leinster, in association with a cold front mid-day, and temperatures behind this feature will drop to 12-15 C.

THURSDAY ... Fresher northwest winds returning, cooler but still fairly dry for most, isolated showers as it will be mostly cloudy in north, partly cloudy south and east. Winds NW 40-60 km/hr near coasts, morning lows 6-8 C and afternoon highs 13-17 C with the milder readings now expected to be confined to south coast.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... Cool with moderate northwest winds, isolated showers becoming somewhat more prevalent although still quite a few places dry, mixtures of cloud and sun, highs 13-16 C and possibly only 11-13 C in the north. Frosts not expected but lows only 3-6 C. Saturday should be somewhat sunnier than Friday and this may boost temperatures a degree or two.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There are hints of this pattern developing nearby low pressure again, near Belgium and northeast France, promoting a moist easterly flow with fog or mist and some light rain towards end of the weekend, lasting several days with further light rainfalls, but that could be followed by a warmer spell of continental air streaming in from the east to northeast at some point near the end of May or into early June.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, these most frequent in southern Scotland and parts of inland northern England, and also near the south coast. One or two isolated showers still possible but most locations dry. Highs 13-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, mild, lows 5-8 C. Some patchy drizzle developing.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather cloudy overall, generally rather dry west, showers and turning unseasonably cool in east by Thursday, highs there may struggle to reach 10-12 C while 13-15 C further west, in northerly winds that could increase to about 40-60 km/hr in east coast regions. Remaining quite cool to about Saturday then slight improvements but also a risk of rain spreading into the south from central Europe on easterly winds.

Forecasts for North America

The massive severe storm outbreak is not done, but will redevelop further east today in regions between Michigan and Arkansas, northeast Texas. There will continue to be some storms further west also, and rain further north spreading into the central Great Lakes region behind Monday's showers and storms there. Some parts of the interior west are dry and near normal in temperature, if perhaps cloudy, but closer to the west coast, rain is developing with heavy falls expected in parts of southern B.C. and Washington state the next 2-3 days.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and cool with highs near 15 C.

M.T. Cranium · 22-05-2013 8:13am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 22 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A rather cloudy start with some sunshine again, probably about half as much as yesterday in various locations, with isolated showers or drizzle breaking out across the north, highs 16-18 C south-central, 13-15 C north. Moderate westerly breezes stronger in north and veering to northwest 35-55 km/hr. There could be a few showers moving south through parts of east and central Ulster, north Leinster, in association with a cold front mid-day, and temperatures behind this feature will drop to 11-14 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few showers, colder with lows 4-6 C.

THURSDAY ... Fresher northwest winds returning, cooler but still fairly dry for most, isolated showers as it will be mostly cloudy in north, partly cloudy south and east. Winds NW 40-60 km/hr near coasts, and afternoon highs 11-15 C with the milder readings now expected to be confined to south coast.

FRIDAY ... Cool with moderate northwest winds, isolated showers becoming somewhat more prevalent although still quite a few places dry, mixtures of cloud and sun, highs 13-16 C and possibly only 11-13 C in the north. Frosts not expected with morning lows only 3-6 C.

SATURDAY ... Becoming partly cloudy with temperatures a degree or two higher again near 15-16 C. isolated afternoon or evening showers mainly in the north and west, moderate northwest winds backing to westerly.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, more frequent showers developing although still mainly in north and west, highs near 16 C.

OUTLOOK ... Monday to Wednesday are now expected to be cool and unsettled with a westerly to northwesterly flow of chilly air from the Greenland region, highs only 11-14 C. Various models have been trying to transform that pattern into a warm dry spell but the latest European model has backed away from that ten-day outlook for now and maintains a cool, unsettled pattern to the end of May. I would say there's still some chance of a better outcome as the Euro is not infallible at that time range and various other models actually have very warm sunny conditions indicated around the 30th of May onward.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Rather cloudy overall, generally rather dry west, showers and moderate west to northwest winds, highs 11-13 C Scotland to 14-17 C southern England.

TONIGHT and THURSDAY ... Rather chilly for most tonight with lows of about 5-7 C and showers, then turning unseasonably cool in east by morning, highs there may struggle to reach 10-12 C while 13-15 C further west, in northerly winds that could increase to about 40-60 km/hr in east coast regions.

OUTLOOK ... Remaining quite cool to about Saturday then slight improvements on the weekend, unsettled most of next week with below normal temperatures. Looks like the month will end up 1-2 degrees below normal on balance.

Forecasts for North America

The severe storm outbreak has lost its more violent characteristics now and is heading further east to a zone from the lower Great Lakes to the Tennessee valley. Cool and dry now from Texas north through the plains states with slight warming near the Rockies and into the Great Basin from hot, dry air sourced in Arizona. Cool and wet in the Pacific northwest states and most of British Columbia with higher elevation snowfalls coming down as low as some mountain passes on highways (1500m), temperatures only 9-12 C even closer to sea level. Rain becoming more showery near the coast.

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and cool with showers developing and highs near 13 C.

M.T. Cranium · 23-05-2013 8:15am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 23 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Fresher northwest winds returning, cooler but still fairly dry for most, isolated showers becoming more widespread in east Ulster and north Leinster, with some risk of hail and thunder mid-day near east coast ... mostly cloudy in north, partly cloudy south and east. Winds NW 40-60 km/hr near coasts, and afternoon highs 11-15 C with the milder readings now expected to be confined to south coast. In fact temperatures in east Ulster could be as low as 7-9 C during showers mid-day, possibly 10-12 C north Leinster. There is a slight risk of a severe thunderstorm developing around Meath or Kildare as winds aloft are very strong at present.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, passing showers, chilly, with lows 3-5 C ... any prolonged clearing inland west or south could promote a touch of frost but in general the wind and cloud should prevent this. I would not be amazed to hear about snow on higher summits by morning as freezing levels will be as low as 800m.

FRIDAY ... Cool with moderate northwest winds, isolated showers with risk of hail or thunder, although still quite a few places dry, mixtures of cloud and sun, highs 13-16 C and possibly only 11-13 C in the north.

SATURDAY ... Becoming partly cloudy with temperatures a degree or two higher again near 15-16 C. isolated afternoon or evening showers mainly in the north and west, moderate northwest winds backing to westerly.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, more frequent showers developing although still mainly in north and west, highs near 16 C.

OUTLOOK ... Monday to Wednesday are now expected to be cool and unsettled with a westerly to northwesterly flow of chilly air from the Greenland region, highs only 11-14 C. Yesterday I said the following and today it appears there is little change ... Various models have been trying to transform that pattern into a warm dry spell but the latest European model has backed away from that ten-day outlook for now and maintains a cool, unsettled pattern to the end of May. I would say there's still some chance of a better outcome as the Euro is not infallible at that time range and various other models actually have very warm sunny conditions indicated around the 30th of May onward.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Turning unseasonably cool in east by morning, highs there may struggle to reach 10-12 C while 13-15 C further west, in northerly winds that could increase to about 50-70 km/hr in east coast regions. Showers could include hail and thunder with snow on peaks of higher mountains in Wales, Cumbria and northeast Scotland.

OUTLOOK ... Remaining quite cool to about Saturday with outbreaks of rain from the northeast that will largely avoid Ireland, then slight improvements by Sunday, unsettled most of next week with below normal temperatures. Looks like the month will end up 1-2 degrees below normal on balance.

Forecasts for North America

Widespread showers, thunderstorms in the eastern time zone but clearing and cooler in central regions trending to near normal and cloudy further west then outbreaks of heavy rain over the northwest U.S. and western Canada, 25-50 mm in some places, and quite cool (9-12 C).

My local weather on Wednesday stayed partly cloudy with rain on all sides, but now it's raining hard and chilly, 7 C. Reports of 5-10 cm snow in mountain passes earlier today at 1200-1500m.

M.T. Cranium · 24-05-2013 6:26am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 24 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cool with moderate northwest winds, isolated showers with risk of hail or thunder, although still quite a few places dry, mixtures of cloud and sun, sunshine more frequent in south and parts of west, with highs 13-16 C but possibly only 11-13 C in the north.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, quite cold for late May, even a slight risk of frost in the usual frost-prone low-lying areas inland, lows -1 to +4 C.

SATURDAY ... Becoming partly cloudy with temperatures a degree or two higher again near 15-16 C. afternoon or evening showers mainly in the north and west, moderate northwest winds backing to westerly. Sunshine more likely to be generous in eastern counties for a change.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, more frequent showers developing although still mainly in north and west, morning lows about 3-5 C and highs 14 to 16 C.

MONDAY ... Breezy to windy with showers or periods of rain, risk of hail and thunder ... winds WSW 50-80 km/hr. Morning lows 2-5 C and afternoon highs about 12 or 13 C, feeling quite cold especially out of the sunshine which may come and go during the day.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY will continue in that same cool, unsettled air mass although winds may be considerably lighter as the low responsible drifts ever closer and then overhead. Highs will continue to be suppressed to the 12-14 C range.

OUTLOOK ... Things could improve slightly beyond mid-week but we are yet to see really strong indications of substantial warming so at best temperatures might edge up to near normal at times. By first week of June, normal highs would be 15-17 C.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Very cool and rather windy with frequent showers or outbreaks of rain, isolated thunder and hail. Winds north to northeast 40-60 km/hr, highs only 9-12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Similar to Ireland throughout the weekend and next week, possibly a degree or two warmer in southern England but otherwise similar conditions and temperatures.

Forecasts for North America

The long-lasting heavy rainfall system is now almost clear of the east coast allowing cooler, dry weather to flood eastward as a strong north-south ridge of high pressure drifts across the Midwest and Great Lakes. To the west of that, rather cool east winds but sunshine to almost the Rockies before cloud and a few showers develop along a narrow warm front edging into Kansas and Oklahoma. Severe storms likely near the Texas panhandle and western Oklahoma. Continued unsettled further northwest into parts of the inland Pacific northwest region, partly cloudy near the west coast with below normal temperatures.

My local weather on Thursday was cloudy with brief sunny breaks, showers in the vicinity although not overhead, and highs only 12-14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 25-05-2013 7:23am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 25 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: Full moon occurred at 0526h IST which means that my location in western Canada has a view of it tonight.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with highs near 15-16 C. Some light morning rainfall mostly in Connacht and west Munster will slowly spread further east but could miss parts of eastern Munster and south Leinster altogether. Even where this rain does arrive later, amounts will be relatively slight, 3-5 mm amounts can be expected, and rain will be somewhat showery. The end of the day will be misty with drizzle in these regions, and mostly overcast further south, but there could be brief sunny intervals by late afternoon or evening in parts of west Munster.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy with some clearing towards morning, drizzle may continue in some parts of the northwest, lows about 5-7 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers developing mainly in north and west, some eastern and southern locations will remain dry, with highs of 14 to 17 C.

MONDAY ... Breezy to windy with showers or periods of rain, risk of hail and thunder. The steady rain will likely sweep through overnight and into Monday morning, followed by partial clearing and squally showers ... winds from south overnight becoming WSW 50-80 km/hr during the day. Morning lows 5-8 C and afternoon highs about 12 to 14 C, feeling quite cold especially out of the sunshine which may come and go during the day.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY will continue in that same cool, unsettled air mass although winds may be considerably lighter as the low responsible drifts ever closer and then overhead. Highs will continue to be suppressed to the 12-14 C range.

OUTLOOK ... Things could improve slightly beyond mid-week and there is now some chance of rather substantial warming in June with higher pressures developing near Ireland ... temperatures might edge up to near normal at times before May ends. By first week of June, normal highs would be 15-17 C but some current guidance projects a spell closer to 20-23 C.

MY LONG-RANGE SUMMER FORECAST has been issued and details are elsewhere on the forum, the basic summary is that I foresee a warmer and drier summer than recent years with some chance of prolonged warm or even hot spells. Check on the forum for the longer version.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Sunshine at times in most regions, as weak frontal bands begin to break apart. Increasing cloudiness later from west in Wales and some parts of western England. Highs 14-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Becoming mostly cloudy, lows 4-7 C in rural districts and most of north, Scotland, 7-10 C near coasts and in larger towns and cities.

OUTLOOK ... Similar trends to Ireland from Sunday onward, very windy at times Monday in western Scotland.

Forecasts for North America

Rain will hang on for much of the weekend in the northeast U.S. with temperatures well below average at 11-14 C. West of this frontal zone, a largely clear and cool weather regime stretches across most of the Midwest and central U.S., with warmer air only flowing as far north as Kansas before it lifts off the surface, promoting severe storms in parts of Kansas, Nebraska and southeast Wyoming, eastern Colorado. Further north an associated frontal wave in Montana is bringing rain to parts of western Canada and temperatures only 8-12 C, trending to about 15 C and partly cloudy on the west coast.

My local weather on Friday was sunny with cloudy intervals, a cool breeze and highs near 14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 26-05-2013 7:40am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 26 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers developing mainly in north and west, watch for some of the cloud to break up under the mid-day sun, and some eastern and southern locations will remain dry, with highs of 15 to 18 C. Winds freshening to SSW 25-45 km/hr by late afternoon and evening.

TONIGHT ... Periods of rain may become heavy in some parts of the north around midnight, as winds become blustery (SSW 35-60 km/hr). This rain will likely reach the east coast a little after sunrise. Lows 7-9 C. Rainfalls of about 10-15 mm possible in north, 2-5 mm south.

MONDAY ... Breezy to windy with showers or periods of rain, risk of hail and thunder. The steady rain from overnight and into Monday morning will be followed by partial clearing and squally showers ... winds from south overnight becoming as strong as WSW 50-80 km/hr in more exposed coastal locations and 40-70 km/hr elsewhere during the day. Afternoon highs about 12 to 14 C, feeling quite cold especially out of the sunshine which may come and go during the day. Rainfalls of 5-10 mm likely in most regions.

TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers and risk of a brief thunderstorm, not as windy but rather breezy in coastal northwest and later southwest, 30-50 km/hr, morning lows 4-7 C and afternoon highs 12-15 C. Rainfalls 3-7 mm.

WEDNESDAY will continue unsettled with some clearing towards late afternoon and evening spreading from the west. Highs will continue to be suppressed to the 13-15 C range.

OUTLOOK ... Gradual improvement overall, but Friday could bring a weak frontal disturbance with a few showers, otherwise the longer range trend is towards dry and somewhat warmer weather with highs edging closer to 18-20 and possibly higher into the first full week of June.

MY LONG-RANGE SUMMER FORECAST has been issued and details are elsewhere on the forum, the basic summary is that I foresee a warmer and drier summer than recent years with some chance of prolonged warm or even hot spells. Check on the forum for the longer version.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Sunshine fading behind higher cloud in most regions, although eastern England north of Lincs and most of southeast Scotland could stay sunny until well on into the afternoon. Reasonably warm with highs 15-18 C.and some parts of western England. Light rain could arrive in some parts of the northwest during the afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, lows 7-11 C with fog or drizzle in some western and northern locations. Heavy rain arriving near dawn in western Scotland and northwest England, north Wales.

MONDAY ... Windy and unsettled with showers and thunderstorms, blustery south to southwest winds reaching 50-80 km/hr in parts of Scotland, 30-60 km/hr further south. Highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Similar trends to Ireland from Tuesday onward.

Forecasts for North America

Unseasonably cold and windy in the northeast U.S. and eastern Great Lakes regions, wet in Atlantic Canada, all due to strong low pressure near Nova Scotia drifting northward. Highs generally closer to 10 C than the normal 20, and even some snow in higher parts of New England.

Not that cold further west although slightly below normal in most of the eastern half of the U.S. and near normal in central states as the current push of warmer air is rather weak and involves just a return flow of last week's colder air mass after a time over the Gulf of Mexico, so the southerly flow is rather cloudy and features temperatures near 26 C. Isolated severe storms in the northern and central plains states, rain in parts of western Canada.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny with cloudy intervals, a few sprinkles of rain not leaving any accumulations, and highs near 15 C.

M.T. Cranium · 27-05-2013 8:02am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 27 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... The heavier downpours in the east should end mid-morning, then becoming partly cloudy, breezy to windy with showers and the risk of hail and thunder. Winds will be as strong as WSW 50-80 km/hr in more exposed coastal locations (Connacht and west Ulster in particular) and 40-70 km/hr elsewhere during the day. Afternoon highs about 12 to 14 C with further rainfalls of 5-10 mm likely in most regions.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, passing showers becoming more confined to west and north after midnight, rather cold with lows 4-7 C. Winds WSW 30-50 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showers and risk of a brief thunderstorm, not as windy but rather breezy in coastal northwest and later southwest, 30-50 km/hr, afternoon highs 12-15 C. Rainfalls 3-7 mm.

WEDNESDAY will continue unsettled with some clearing towards late afternoon and evening spreading from the west. Highs will continue to be suppressed to the 13-15 C range.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, only a few isolated showers mainly in north, lows 3-5 C and highs 14-17 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, one or two showers likely, 2-5 mm rainfalls, lows about 7 C and highs about 16 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Sunny intervals, showers more isolated and confined to north, a bit warmer too, highs near 19 C and possibly low 20s in some parts of inland south and east.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There continue to be indications of a warm spell with an easterly source as higher pressure develops from the Azores to northern Scandinavia. Highs could be in the 18-23 C range at times in early June. The models seem to have a considerable agreement on a warmer trend and the fact that it's quite gradual may be taken as a good sign that pattern change may be underway.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Western and northern regions will become windy and unsettled with showers and thunderstorms, blustery south to southwest winds reaching 50-80 km/hr in parts of Scotland, 30-60 km/hr further south. Highs near 15 C. Southeast England may hold on to sunshine for part of the day with increasing cloud by afternoon, the blustery showers dying out as they reach that part of England. Rainfalls in general 10-30 mm in north, central, but 2-7 mm southeast, 7-15 mm southwest.

TONIGHT ... Further showers, breezy, lows 7-10 C.

TUESDAY ... Frequent showers, cool, breezy, highs 13-15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Similar trends to Ireland from mid-week onward. In any prolonged spell of east winds, the warmth is often less spectacular in North Sea coastal regions where low cloud and fog can drift some distance inland with temperatures reduced locally by 3-5 C deg or more compared to further inland.

Forecasts for North America

Further outbreaks of severe storms in the central plains states today, although becoming more severe on Tuesday as a larger clash of air masses develops. The very cold regime in the northeast U.S. will begin to relax its hold with the cloud breaking up and rain moving into far eastern Canada, so that temperatures will recover to about 15-18 C in the large cities of the northeast and the Great Lakes region, trending to 20-23 C in the Midwest and 23-25 C in the southeast states. Hot and dry in most of Texas and the southwest states, while further outbreaks of rain and mountain snow likely in the rather chilly Pacific northwest region and western Canada.

My local weather on Sunday was cloudy and quite cool, mainly dry with rain spreading inland to the east of here, highs only 12-14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 28-05-2013 7:47am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 28 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Western regions will be mostly cloudy, showers and risk of a brief thunderstorm, not as windy but rather breezy in coastal northwest and later southwest, 30-50 km/hr, afternoon highs 12-15 C. Rainfalls 3-7 mm. Eastern regions will start out partly cloudy with decent sunny intervals, then showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop, highs 14-16 C, rainfalls 2-5 mm.

TONIGHT ... Showers generally dying out, but a period of steady rain could develop in the southeast towards morning, moving back in from the northeast, while other regions become partly cloudy to clear, with lows 4-8 C.

WEDNESDAY will continue unsettled at least in most eastern regions, with some clearing towards late afternoon and evening spreading from the west, where some parts could have an entirely dry day. Highs will continue to be suppressed to the 13-15 C range except where sunny intervals are longer to allow for highs 16-18 C inland south and west.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, only a few isolated showers mainly in north, lows 3-5 C and highs 14-18 C. A few locations could flirt with 20 degrees if there's enough sunshine and a breeze from land (inland south is favoured).

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, one or two showers likely, 2-5 mm rainfalls, lows about 7 C and highs about 16 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Sunny intervals, showers more isolated and confined to north, a bit warmer too, highs near 19 C and possibly low 20s in some parts of inland south and east.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There continue to be indications of a warm spell with an easterly source as higher pressure develops from the Azores to northern Scandinavia. Highs could be in the 18-23 C range at times in early June. There would be either one long unbroken dry spell, or two dry spells with a brief interruption from cooler, showery conditions, depending on which guidance for the second week ahead proves to be the more accurate.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Frequent showers or periods of light rain, cool, breezy, highs for most regions 13-15 C and as low as 10 C in some parts of central England and Wales.

TONIGHT and WEDNESDAY ... Further outbreaks of rain, cool. Lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C. Rain becoming confined to narrower bands with some limited sunshine developing in some areas.

OUTLOOK ... Similar trends to Ireland from Thursday onward. In any prolonged spell of east winds, the warmth is often less spectacular in North Sea coastal regions where low cloud and fog can drift some distance inland with temperatures reduced locally by 3-5 C deg or more compared to further inland.

Forecasts for North America

Heavy rainfalls and locally severe storms developing with a frontal wave in Michigan and Ontario, parts of Illinois, Indiana and northern Ohio. Highs about 17 C in this zone, but warm and humid further south, highs 25-27 C with thunderstorms developing. Severe storms fairly widespread in Kansas and Oklahoma, risk of a tornado or two. Widespread rain in western Canada and the Pacific northwest, warm to hot and dry in the southwest U.S.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with periods of rain, about 20 mm fell, and it was chilly (highs 12-14 C).

M.T. Cranium · 28-05-2013 9:41pm

UPDATE _ Tuesday 28 May 2013 _ 9:45 p.m.
________________________________________

An area of moderate rain in the Irish Sea will slowly advance westward and will eventually cover most of Wicklow, Dublin and Meath with 10-20 mm rainfalls overnight, but it is expected that the rainfalls will become less intense within a few hours as the area spreads out further to the southwest before dissipating on Wednesday morning, so that amounts further inland should be closer to 5 mm.

M.T. Cranium · 28-05-2013 9:42pm

UPDATE _ Tuesday 28 May 2013 _ 9:45 p.m.
________________________________________

An area of moderate rain in the Irish Sea will slowly advance westward and will eventually cover most of Wicklow, Dublin and Meath with 10-20 mm rainfalls overnight, but it is expected that the rainfalls will become less intense within a few hours as the area spreads out further to the southwest before dissipating on Wednesday morning, so that amounts further inland should be closer to 5 mm.

M.T. Cranium · 29-05-2013 7:53am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 29 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: A celestial happening may be viewable this evening, planets Venus, Jupiter and fainter Mercury are close together in the western skies after sunset. I have included a sketch at the end of this forecast to indicate how the grouping should appear tonight. You may need binoculars to see them easily.

TODAY ... Clouds in some parts of west and south, and any lingering showers, will gradually break up, with a sunny start already underway in parts of Ulster and north Leinster. This sunshine may help boost temperatures into the warmer 15-18 C range but any persistent cloud would keep readings around 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals, then partly cloudy, rather mild with lows in the range of 6-10 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, only a few isolated showers mainly in north, highs 14-18 C. A few locations could flirt with 20 degrees if there's enough sunshine and a breeze from land (inland south is favoured).

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, one or two showers likely, 2-5 mm rainfalls, lows about 7 C and highs about 16 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Sunny intervals, showers more isolated and confined to north, a bit warmer too, highs near 19 C and possibly low 20s in some parts of inland south and east.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There continue to be indications of a warm spell with an easterly source as higher pressure develops from the Azores to northern Scandinavia. Highs could be in the 18-23 C range at times in early June. There would be either one long unbroken dry spell, or two dry spells with a brief interruption from cooler, showery conditions, depending on which guidance for the second week ahead proves to be the more accurate.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Further outbreaks of light rain in central regions, and highs 14-16C. Rain becoming confined to narrower bands with some limited sunshine developing in some areas.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, lows 5-8 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, a bit warmer, highs 16-19 C.

OUTLOOK ... Similar trends to Ireland from Friday onward. In any prolonged spell of east winds, the warmth is often less spectacular in North Sea coastal regions where low cloud and fog can drift some distance inland with temperatures reduced locally by 3-5 C deg or more compared to further inland.

Forecasts for North America

The heavy rainfalls and locally severe storms will continue across the lower Great Lakes but much warmer air is trying to push north and will establish a stronger presence in the northeast states and bring highs up towards 26 C.

Severe storms can be expected in many parts of the central and southern plains states, with highs before they develop near 32 C.

Slightly improved weather is finally replacing days of steady rain in the far west but it's still cloudy and showery with highs 14-17 C.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with light rain at times, and it continues rather chilly for late May, 13-14 C.

_______________________________

This sketch will portray the view of Jupiter, Venus and Mercury (in that order above the horizon) at about 10 p.m. after sunset this evening. Later this week or early next week, Venus and Mercury will have moved off a bit higher into the evening sky while Jupiter sinks ever closer to a rendezvous with the Sun on 18-19 June.

M.T. Cranium · 30-05-2013 7:42am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 30 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly sunny except for some cloudy intervals near outer coasts in some western and northern counties. Highs 18-21 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals at first, increasing cloud later. Lows 6-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, isolated showers becoming somewhat more widespread by afternoon in parts of Connacht and Ulster, amounts variable but generally 2-5 mm. Highs 14-17 C north, 17-20 C south.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy intervals to start, patchy light rain in parts of the north and west, more isolated drizzly morning showers in east, south may remain dry in places, but improvements spreading in later with sunshine at times during the afternoon and evening. Lows 6-10 C and highs 17-20 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, isolated showers or drizzle from sea fog near coasts possible in northwest but most places dry, lows 5-8 C and highs 17-21 C.

OUTLOOK ... The main question about next week is whether it will become very warm or just somewhat warmer than the weekend, and if there might be any significant interruption to a warm, dry spell. But we expect the week to start with plenty of sunshine away from possibly misty Atlantic coasts, with highs in the low and possibly mid 20s, with calm conditions or light east winds not really strong enough to bring much cooling to east coast. Longer term forecasts are of course less certain but there appears to be potential for further warm, dry spells from time to time and some chance of very warm weather developing. We can't promise highs above 23 C but they do become possible in some of the longer-term model guidance.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Widespread light rain continuing, some of this becoming heavier mid-day in central England. Cool with highs 13-16 C. A few parts of western Scotland and coastal Wales, southwest England might enjoy more similar weather to Ireland with some sunshine and 15-17 C highs.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, drizzle or fog, then partial clearing, lows 6-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers more isolated then becoming frequent in parts of western Scotland, northwest England, highs 16-19 C.

OUTLOOK ... By the weekend, the weather in Britain should also be improving gradually and it will eventually become warm and dry except near the North Sea where easterly winds although rather light could bring in some cooler fog-laden conditions. Highs otherwise near 20 C or a bit higher in west.

Forecasts for North America

Heavy rainfalls and some severe storms again in central plains states, but very warm and humid, largely without rainfall now, in eastern states and parts of the Gulf coast, highs there near 30 C. Heavy rainfalls also in south Florida from a subtropical disturbance in the Bahamas. Heavy rain expected in parts of Montana and Alberta, lighter rain in the Pacific northwest states and southern British Columbia.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with light rain, highs near 14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 31-05-2013 7:42am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 31 May, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy to start with a few sunny intervals in the south and east, isolated showers becoming somewhat more widespread by afternoon in parts of Connacht and Ulster, amounts variable but generally 1-3 mm. Parts of the south and east could remain dry. Highs 14-17 C north, 17-20 C south.

TONIGHT ... Continuing rather cloudy with patchy drizzle in north, mild, lows about 7-10 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy intervals to start, patchy light rain in parts of the north and west, more isolated drizzly morning showers in east, south may remain dry in places, but improvements spreading in later with sunshine at times during the afternoon and evening and highs 17-20 C except 14-16 C in north.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, isolated showers or drizzle from sea fog near coasts possible in northwest but most places dry, lows 5-8 C and highs 17-21 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, some persistent low cloud possible near outer coasts, warm especially inland with highs 18-22 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals with further coastal fog possible, light winds, warm or very warm, highs 19-24 C.

OUTLOOK ... The pattern gradually develops a stronger northeasterly wind flow and a weak disturbance embedded in that will drift across Britain mid-week then Ireland later in the week. It may amount to little more than isolated showers and localized thundershowers that in similar patterns are more likely in the inland west. However, one day around Thursday or Friday could see more significant outbreaks and this could hold down temperatures to about 16-18 C due to the additional cloud cover. Models sometimes struggle with blocked patterns like this and the actual outcome may be a series of warm, dry spells with brief interruptions. However, if you're planning by probabilities, there's perhaps at least an equal chance of a more mixed outcome with a few days that are not as fine as the rest.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, warmer for most regions, showers becoming frequent in parts of western Scotland, northwest England, otherwise a fine, dry day with highs 16-21 C.

OUTLOOK ... By the weekend, the weather in Britain should also be improving gradually and it will eventually become warm and dry except near the North Sea where easterly winds although rather light could bring in some cooler fog-laden conditions. Highs otherwise near 20 C or a bit higher in west. See the outlook for Ireland but note the timing of a weak disturbance in that time frame. The pattern then looks more significantly disrupted for Scotland and northeast England than other regions (meaning that they would be significantly cooler late in the week with more frequent showers possible).

Forecasts for North America

Showers and thunderstorms in parts of Midwest, central plains states, otherwise hot and humid with highs 31-34 C in much of eastern and central regions. Rain becoming heavy across the northern plains states and some parts of the Canadian prairies near the Rockies and U.S. border. Dry and cool further north. Variable cloud and showers further west.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with very light rain at times, no further accumulations with highs near 15 C.

Tomorrow I reach the four-year mark with these daily forecasts which means I have to campaign for re-election (or look for my vice-president).

M.T. Cranium · 01-06-2013 7:36am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 1 June, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy to start, patchy light rain in parts of the north and west (only 1-3 mm), more isolated drizzly morning showers in east, while the south may remain dry in places, with general improvements spreading in later, sunshine at times during the afternoon and evening and highs 17-20 C except 14-16 C in north.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy and mild, lows 7-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, isolated showers or drizzle from sea fog near coasts possible in northwest but most places dry, rather warm with highs 17-21 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, some persistent low cloud possible near outer coasts, warm especially inland with lows 6-9 C and highs 18-22 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals with further coastal fog possible, light winds, warm or very warm, lows 6-9 C and highs 19-24 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... Little change, mainly sunny inland, some more persistent low cloud or sea fog near some coasts (mainly south) and a slight risk of isolated thundershowers inland west. Lows 6-10 C and highs inland into the low or mid 20s, 17-20 C near exposed coasts in a freshening east wind.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Possibly somewhat cooler with more extensive cloud and showers towards the following weekend although this trend may not be too extreme, highs about 16-19 C. The warmer, dry pattern could reload after that.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy with a few light showers in some western regions, with highs 16-21 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, mild, drizzle in some western districts, lows 7-10 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, warmer. Highs 19-23 C except closer to 16 C near North Sea and in parts of Scotland.

OUTLOOK ... Similar trends to Ireland from mid-week, except that cooling effects of east winds can be stronger near North Sea (because it's larger, and colder at present time, than the Irish Sea).

Forecasts for North America

Showers and some severe storms redeveloping a bit further east from the lower Great Lakes to the Gulf coast near Louisiana. Some parts of the east coast and mid-Atlantic will hold on to hot, dry weather for one more day with highs near 34 C. A cooler air mass with highs 22-26 C will press south to replace yesterday's hot humid and stormy conditions in Oklahoma and other parts of the southern plains states, and this air mass extends from a source in central Canada where highs are only 13-16 C. Weak weather systems in the far west with isolated showers and more cloud than sunshine.

My local weather on Friday was cloudy with a few sunny intervals, but dry for a change, highs near 16 C.

M.T. Cranium · 02-06-2013 8:55am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 2 June, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A cloudy start in some parts of the north and west, outbreaks of drizzle or light rain coming and going within that cloud mass, meanwhile partly cloudy to sunny at times in south and some central to western districts, and a cloudy morning likely in most eastern counties with some brighter intervals developing (light winds will prevent much organization from developing in this somewhat haphazard cloud pattern) but for most, rather warm and feeling rather muggy, with highs 17-21 C except 14-17 C in areas affected by marine cloud layers or sea fog.

TONIGHT ... Foggy or misty in most places, some clear intervals possible well inland and mild, lows 9-12 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals developing perhaps rather slowly at first, with some persistent low cloud possible near outer coasts, warm especially inland with lows 6-9 C and highs 18-22 C except 14-17 C near south, west coasts ... probably closer to 18 than 22 near east coast. Some inland locations could become very warm and it may feel oppressively muggy.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals with further coastal fog possible, light winds, warm or very warm, lows 6-9 C and highs 17-22 C. The light wind flow (from southeast) will make it difficult to predict where cloud will break up or hold firm, and this will be the main determining factor in afternoon temperatures which could potentially hit 23 or 24 C in a few spots if there's enough sunshine.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... Little change, cloudy with sunny spells inland, some more persistent low cloud or sea fog near some coasts (mainly for the south coast but also the outer Atlantic and north coasts) and a slight risk of isolated thundershowers inland west. Those could become heavy in a few isolated locations due in part to slow motion of any cells or even a stationary life cycle for them. During this spell, lows 6-10 C (possibly 10-13 C near coasts and in cities) and highs inland into the low or mid 20s, 16-19 C near exposed coasts in a freshening east wind.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The models have really backed away from any major changes but with the ridge apparently breaking down somewhat, it will possibly turn a bit cooler in general with more extensive cloud and showers towards the following weekend with highs generally about 16-19 C. The warmer, dry pattern could reload after that. The GFS model shows heat wave conditions possible around mid-June with the Azores high setting up over Ireland -- this will be something to monitor as it would be a very good sign for a prolonged warm spell for most (away from outer coasts which could be quite foggy under the inversion conditions of the high pressure this early in the summer).

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY and MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, warmer. Highs 19-23 C except closer to 16 C near North Sea and in parts of Scotland.

OUTLOOK ... Similar trends to Ireland from mid-week, except that cooling effects of east winds can be stronger near North Sea (because it's larger, and colder at present time, than the Irish Sea). In general about equal amounts of cloud and sunshine are likely inland but mostly cloudy near east coast in this spell.

Forecasts for North America

Frequent showers in eastern regions with a few storms embedded, highs 23-27 C. Some very heavy rainfalls in parts of the southeast, 100-200 mm possible in parts of Georgia and Alabama. To the west of this frontal system, a second much weaker front in the Great Lakes region could bring a few showers but generally a near normal and dry if cloudy pattern, trending to warm sunshine further west with highs 22-25 C, hot and dry in Texas and parts of the southwest U.S. (34-42 C).

Extensive rain and mountain snow in the central and northern Rockies of the western U.S., with a more showery pattern further north into the Canadian Rockies but slow clearing closer to the west coast as higher pressure builds in slowly.

My local weather on Saturday was cloudy with sunny intervals and rather warm with highs near 19 C.

M.T. Cranium · 03-06-2013 6:59am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 3 June, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny intervals developing perhaps rather slowly at first, with some persistent low cloud possible near outer coasts, warm especially inland with lows 6-9 C and highs 18-22 C except 14-17 C near south, west coasts ... probably closer to 18 than 22 near east coast. Some inland locations could become very warm and it may feel oppressively muggy.

TONIGHT ... Misty or foggy although some clear intervals possible in a few locations, lows 8-11 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals with further coastal fog possible, light winds, warm or very warm, lows 6-9 C and highs 17-22 C. The light wind flow (from southeast) will make it difficult to predict where cloud will break up or hold firm, and this will be the main determining factor in afternoon temperatures which could potentially hit 23 or 24 C in a few spots if there's enough sunshine.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... Little change, cloudy with sunny spells inland, some more persistent low cloud or sea fog near some coasts (mainly for the south coast but also the outer Atlantic and north coasts) and a slight risk of isolated thundershowers inland west. Those could become heavy in a few isolated locations due in part to slow motion of any cells or even a stationary life cycle for them. During this spell, lows 6-10 C (possibly 10-13 C near coasts and in cities) and highs inland into the low or mid 20s, 16-19 C near exposed coasts in a freshening east wind.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The models have really backed away from any major changes but with the ridge apparently breaking down somewhat, it will possibly turn a bit cooler in general with more extensive cloud and showers towards the following weekend with highs generally about 16-19 C. The warmer, dry pattern could reload after that. The GFS model continues today to show heat wave conditions possible around mid-June with the Azores high setting up over Ireland -- this will be something to monitor as it would be a very good sign for a prolonged warm spell for most (away from outer coasts which could be quite foggy under the inversion conditions of the high pressure this early in the summer).

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Sunny intervals, rather warm. Highs 18-22 C except closer to 16 C near North Sea and in parts of Scotland.

OUTLOOK ... Similar trends to Ireland from mid-week, except that cooling effects of east winds can be stronger near North Sea (because it's larger, and colder at present time, than the Irish Sea). In general about equal amounts of cloud and sunshine are likely inland but mostly cloudy near east coast in this spell.

Forecasts for North America

Showers continuing to move away from the east coast today, but a few will linger in mostly cloudy conditions, highs 19-23 C. Heavy rain easing off in the southeast but some flooding as a result, highs 23-26 C. Cool and dry central plains states, trending to hot and dry in Texas, with isolated storms developing in west Texas and New Mexico, spreading towards Kansas later.

Rain, heavy at times, northern Rockies including parts of Alberta. Dry and warmer near the west coast as a ridge builds just offshore.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny with highs near 21 C.

M.T. Cranium · 04-06-2013 7:17am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 4 June, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny intervals more widespread today with some long or unbroken spells of warm suhsnine although with some coastal fog possible, light winds from the east to southeast, and warm or very warm, highs 17-24 C (warmest inland west, midlands).

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, fog mostly confined to outer coasts, some more persistent cloud in parts of Ulster, lows 7-11 C. Slight risk of an isolated thundershower inland west by late afternoon. This trend will gradually increase later in the week.

WEDNESDAY to SUNDAY ... The outlook has become even better than previously with sunshine and rather warm temperatures now expected to prevail into the weekend, although with some cloudy intervals here and there and the ongoing slight risk of a shower or thunderstorm mostly in western counties. Highs each day about 21-23 C except 17-20 C in onshore sea breezes close to the south and east coasts mainly, also outer west and north coasts at times. Friday could be even warmer than other days with highs closer to 23-25 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Beyond the weekend, the models have gone off their earlier flirtation with strong high pressure and heat wave conditions, but that may simply indicate a longer period for warm spells given that this current one seems to be extending further into the weekend period. I don't believe that we are going to see very reliable guidance in the 7-14 day time frame as long as this rather chaotic blocking pattern persists. But in statistical terms there is probably a good chance of a brief cloudy or wet interruption to the warm, dry spell and then a reload of pleasant or even very warm conditions later in June.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Sunny intervals and quite warm away from the chilly east coast, highs 19-24 C except 15-19 C east coast and far north. Some localized sea fog drifting inland in parts of Yorkshire and northeast England.

OUTLOOK ... Similar trends to Ireland from mid-week, except that cooling effects of east winds can be stronger near North Sea (because it's larger, and colder at present time, than the Irish Sea). In general about equal amounts of cloud and sunshine are likely inland but mostly cloudy near east coast in this spell. Some showers likely at times later in the week in Scotland where slightly cooler air will arrive from the northeast, making little progress beyond an Aberdeen-Skye frontal boundary.

Forecasts for North America

Eastern regions clearing and rather cool in west to northwest breezes, highs a few degrees below normal at 17-20 C. Rain has spread out of the Rockies and into the northern plains states overnight and will continue to spread towards the Midwest today, covering that region tomorrow. Highs only 14-17 C in the rain, severe storms further south (Nebraska-Kansas), and hot/dry south of that. Tropical moisture and even the chance of the season's first named storm are filling the southern Gulf of Mexico. Warm and dry on the west coast.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and pleasantly warm at 21 C.

M.T. Cranium · 05-06-2013 7:55am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 5 June, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny with the slight risk of coastal fog and isolated afternoon showers or a thunderstorm, but all of that would probably affect only a very small portion of the country, as most will enjoy unbroken sunshine and highs in the 22-25 C range except 17-20 C closer to the south coast, east coast and some outer portions of west and north coasts.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, possible haze, mist or fog developing, mild. Lows about 7-10 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunshine through rather extensive higher cloud, muggy and warm with risk of an afternoon thundershower in western inland districts, highs similar to today.

FRIDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, warm, isolated storms possible, coastal sea fog. Highs 22-26 C but 17-20 C near coasts.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... It should remain warm and dry with at least partial sunshine, but there's a slight risk of low cloud and drizzle moving some distance inland in the south coastal districts with rain further offshore, however, this is not universally supported on the model runs and even so would not be much of a blemish on the weekend overall. Highs 21-24 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Trends beyond the weekend are of low reliability in this pattern, but in general the model consensus is for a return to more normal temperatures and some unsettled intervals but with the prospect of a return to warm, dry weather lurking beyond that interruption and always the chance of a very warm outcome with such strong Atlantic high pressure not that far away on ten to fifteen day maps.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Rather cloudy to start, some persistent low cloud and sea fog in east, but also some warmer sunny intervals developing, highs 22-25 C in west and central, south, but 14-18 C east and most of Scotland.

OUTLOOK ... Similar trends to Ireland with a larger difference between east and west due to the colder and more extensive North Sea.

Forecasts for North America

Becoming warmer across the east today, some outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms in the Midwest and Great Lakes. Hot and dry in the south central and southwest states, warm and dry on the west coast.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and quite warm at 23 C.

M.T. Cranium · 06-06-2013 7:46am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 6 June, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunshine through rather extensive patchy higher cloud, muggy and warm with risk of an afternoon thundershower in southern and later western inland districts, highs 21-24 C inland, 16-20 C closer to east and south coasts. There is a slight risk of a severe thunderstorm developing (generally around midlands, watch for updates).

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, fog and mist patches, mild. Lows 7-11 C.

FRIDAY ... Hazy sunshine with cloudy intervals, warm, isolated storms possible again, rather extensive coastal sea fog is possible. Highs 22-26 C (as long as some sunshine prevails, 17-20 C in more frequent cloud in a few locations) but generally 16-20 C near coasts.

SATURDAY ... Hazy sunshine, some increase in cloud in south, warm. Highs about 21-24 C but 16-20 C near coasts.

SUNDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, continued rather warm, highs about 18-22 C but 15-19 C near coasts.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud will lead to showers in western districts by about Monday night or Tuesday morning. This rain may spread all the way across the country eventually. By that time it will probably be rather welcome too, amounts at this point look like being moderate (5-15 mm in general). Highs will be closer to normal at 17-19 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The model evolution beyond this unsettled spell early next week hints at the rebuilding of warm ridge conditions and there could be another warm spell to come, with the slight chance of hot conditions developing eventually. That looks somewhat more likely for southeast England long-range as some maps would support 30 C near London within two weeks, for now we'll say a return to the low 20s not out of the question for Ireland.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Rather cloudy to start, some persistent low cloud and sea fog in east, but also some warmer sunny intervals developing, highs 20-24 C in west and central, south, but 14-18 C east and most of Scotland, although 10-14 C in northeast Scotland which will be in a cooler air mass that has drifted in from the Norwegian Sea -- that air mass will be held in place by stationary fronts.

OUTLOOK ... Similar trends to Ireland with a larger difference between east and west due to the colder and more extensive North Sea. As noted, southeast England could eventually see very warm weather redeveloping with an even warmer spell before the end of June.

Forecasts for North America

Tropical Storm Andrea has formed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and is heading for a landfall late tonight in northern Florida. After that it will move up the Georgia and Carolina coastal plains (an inland track) spreading 150-250 mm rainfalls to a large area. Heavy showers will develop ahead of the tropical storm rainfalls in the mid-Atlantic states today. Dry and seasonable in central regions and sunny, warm to hot in most of the western third.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny with a pleasant high of 22 C.

M.T. Cranium · 07-06-2013 8:01am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 7 June, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine with a few cloudy intervals, very warm and feeling rather muggy, isolated storms while possible again, seem rather unlikely; some patchy coastal sea fog is also possible. Highs 22-26 C for central and western districts, but generally 16-20 C nearer to south and east coasts in light easterly breezes that may freshen as sea breezes in Dublin and the southeast.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals but hazy, becoming misty or even foggy in some coastal locations, lows 7-10 C.

SATURDAY ... Hazy sunshine, some increase in cloud in south, warm. Highs about 21-24 C but 16-20 C near coasts. Sea breezes likely weaker but still a factor close to south and east coasts.

SUNDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, continued rather warm, highs about 19-23 C but 15-19 C near coasts.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud will lead to showers in western districts by about Monday night or Tuesday morning. This rain may spread all the way across the country eventually. You may hear that Tropical Storm Andrea is involved, but the system will have weakened almost to extinction by the time any remnants arrive in western Europe. By that time any rain will probably be rather welcome too, amounts at this point look like being moderate (5-15 mm in general). Highs will be closer to normal at 17-19 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Yesterday's scenario has not changed much in the past day of model updates ... the model evolution beyond this unsettled spell early next week hints at the (gradual) rebuilding of warm ridge conditions and there could be another warm spell to come, although it may take about a week to overcome the rather lethargic return to Atlantic influences, with the slight chance of hot conditions developing eventually closer to the end of the month. That looks somewhat more likely for southeast England long-range as some maps would support 30 C near London within two weeks, for now we'll say a return to the low 20s not out of the question for Ireland.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Sunny intervals for most, scattered thunderstorms possible in the south, spreading some distance northwest into parts of Wales later. Rather warm in most regions, highs 19-23 C but cool and possibly foggy at times in eastern counties, highs 14-18 C in light to moderate E-NE breezes. Northern Scotland remains in a much different and cooler, cloudy air mass with highs around 11-13 C.

OUTLOOK ... The weekend and even Monday in east should remain rather warm and generally clear to partly cloudy except for patchy sea fog and isolated showers in the south. Highs will be about 22-24 C inland, and 17-20 C closer to the coasts. Beyond the weekend, similar trends to Ireland with a breezy and wet interval in Scotland around Monday night and Tuesday, which may spread to some parts of northern England. Only showers further south where some places may remain dry. As noted, southeast England could eventually see very warm weather redeveloping with an even warmer spell before the end of June.

Forecasts for North America

Andrea has picked up speed and is already into the Carolinas, spreading 50-100 mm rainfalls through the mid-Atlantic and northeast states later on. By tomorrow mid-day the circulation, no longer tropical, will be over Nova Scotia and by Monday night weak remnants of it could be absorbed into a frontal system due to break down the dry spell for Ireland (but all of this will likely not produce very heavy rainfall beyond Nova Scotia). Meanwhile, a western low is bringing widespread showers to western Canada today and these will spread southeast into the northern Rockies of the U.S., by tonight and Saturday, with an outbreak of severe storms likely to follow on the weekend in the central plains. A more isolated early phase of that will hit parts of north Texas, eastern New Mexico and eastern Colorado this afternoon and evening.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and quite warm at 24 C. It has clouded over this evening in advance of expected showers on Friday afternoon here.

M.T. Cranium · 08-06-2013 8:11am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 8 June, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

Astronomy note: New moon occurs this afternoon at about 4:57 p.m.

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine, some increase in cloud in south, warm. Highs about 22-25 C but 16-20 C near coasts. Slight risk of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm in western counties. Sea breezes likely weaker but still a factor close to south and east coasts.

TONIGHT ... Clear with a few coastal fog patches, lows 7-11 C.

SUNDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, continued rather warm, highs about 19-23 C but 15-19 C near coasts. Scattered afternoon or evening thunderstorms may develop mainly west and north.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud will lead to showers in western districts by about Monday night or Tuesday morning. This rain may spread all the way across the country eventually. You may hear that Tropical Storm Andrea is involved, but the system will have weakened almost to extinction by the time any remnants arrive in western Europe. By that time any rain will probably be rather welcome too, amounts at this point look like being moderate (5-15 mm in general). Highs will be closer to normal at 17-19 C. Winds will swing around to the south then southwest during this unsettled period and may gust to about 50 to 70 km/hr as a frontal system approaches later Tuesday.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A somewhat more settled interval should follow with clearing on Wednesday, some sunshine again on Thursday and highs near 18 and possibly 20 C. The pattern beyond that suggests a second round of showers and gusty winds Friday-Saturday once again followed by clearing and possibly the onset of a late June warm spell that could even become a hot spell given the time of year.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Sunny intervals for most, scattered thunderstorms possible in the southwest. Rather warm in most regions, highs 19-24 C but cool and possibly foggy at times in eastern counties, highs 14-18 C in light to moderate E-NE breezes. Northern Scotland remains cooler and unsettled in places with highs around 12-15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Sunday and Monday should remain rather warm and generally clear to partly cloudy except for patchy sea fog and isolated showers in the south and by late Monday in the west. Highs will be about 22-24 C inland, and 17-20 C closer to the coasts. Beyond Monday, similar trends to Ireland with a breezy and wet interval in Scotland around Monday night and Tuesday, which may spread to some parts of northern England. Only showers further south where some places may remain dry. As noted, southeast England could eventually see very warm weather redeveloping with an even warmer spell before the end of June.

Forecasts for North America

After a very wet Friday in the northeast, rain ending this morning but some local flooding, highs near 20 C. Similar but a bit warmer in the mid-Atlantic states but heavy showers at times in the southeast from a wave trailing the remnants of Andrea. This feature will head out to sea rather than heading northeast. Remnants of Andrea will make for a wet and blustery day in eastern Canada with highs near 15 C. Further west, there's extensive dry and rather cool weather in central states and provinces, then an outbreak of heavy storms in the western plains. The west coast is mainly dry under a developing ridge, with yesterday's morning showers now across the Rockies and spreading into Alberta.

My local weather on Friday was cloudy with late sunny breaks, and morning showers, not very heavy (about 5 mm total) with a high of 19 C.

M.T. Cranium · 09-06-2013 7:52am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 9 June, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly sunny and very warm although somewhat more cloud in west than recent days and the slight risk of an isolated thunderstorm developing. Highs about 19-24 C but 15-19 C near coasts.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, very mild, lows 8-13 C warmest in western counties. Slight chance of drizzle developing outer portions of the northwest coast.

MONDAY ... Western regions cloudy with light rain developing at times near the coast, highs there 17-20 C ... eastern regions sunny to partly cloudy and warm. highs 21-24 C. Winds southeast to south 20-40 km/hr will promote strong sea breeze cooling near the south coast.

TUESDAY ... Showers and chance of a thunderstorm, rainfalls generally about 5 to 15 mm, heavier inland southwest and west. Winds southerly 20-40 km/hr becoming southwest 40-60 km/hr by evening. Highs 17-20 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy, showers clearing to the northeast then some sunny intervals, morning lows 11-13 C and afternoon highs 17-19 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, warm. Lows 7-10 C and highs 18-22 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, warm. Rain possible especially in Connacht and west Munster by later in the day. Lows 7-12 C and highs 17-21 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... The current model outlook generally suggests an unsettled weekend with a brief period of heavier showers and stronger winds. Watch for trends in this forecast because sometimes in warmer spells, events like this can sweep further north as models get a better handle on details, and the outlook may improve.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... If that unsettled weekend does materialize, the trend beyond the 16th should be slowly improving back to warm and dry conditions with continued hints of very warm weather possible by about the 20th to 25th of June.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy to partly cloudy, rather warm in west, cloudy with isolated showers in east, cool due to east winds off North Sea. Highs will range from about 14 C in east coast districts to 22 C inland west.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, some mist and fog developing especially in cooler east, lows 7-12 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm. Highs 17-23 C.

OUTLOOK ... Tuesday becoming cloudy and showery with strong winds developing in Scotland and some parts of northern England by the overnight hours. Highs 17-20 C. From mid-week, the same trends and comments as in the Ireland forecasts apply to Britain. The trends are close to average for mid-June but relatively pleasant weather conditions in general, although another period of strong wind and heavy showers could hit Scotland around the weekend of the 15th-16th. Southern England eventually see very warm weather redeveloping with an even warmer spell before the end of June.

Forecasts for North America

The final act for Andrea will be heavy rainfalls in Newfoundland this morning, after which the disturbance will head across the Atlantic. Remnants will be absorbed into the frontal system due in Ireland on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another heavy rainfall event has formed in the south central states and threatens to bring 100-200 mm rains to parts of Louisiana and Mississippi through the day. East Texas and Oklahoma will slowly clear out after heavy overnight rains. Somewhat cooler air will seep south behind this front which will also bring more moderate rains to the Midwest and Tennessee valley regions. Hot, dry conditions (38-44 C) are developing over Utah, Arizona, southern Colorado and western New Mexico. The west coast is also dry but closer to seasonable 20-23 C temperatures.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny with afternoon cloud, and highs near 17 C.

M.T. Cranium · 10-06-2013 8:05am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 10 June, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Western regions cloudy with light to moderate rain developing at times in coastal counties, highs there 16-19 C and rainfalls about 5 mm ... eastern regions sunny to partly cloudy and warm although some smoke haze could develop from fires in hills southwest of Dublin. The southeast will have morning cloud, some mid-day brighter intervals, then light rain by evening. Highs in east and north about 19-22 C. Winds southeast to south 20-40 km/hr will promote strong sea breeze cooling near the south coast (14 C in outer coastal districts).

TONIGHT ... Further showers moving east to cover some dry areas in Ulster and Leinster, but rainfall becoming rather patchy, 2-5 mm likely. Mild and humid with lows about 10-13 C.

TUESDAY ... Showers and chance of a thunderstorm, rainfalls generally about 5to 15 mm, heavier inland west and northwest. Winds southerly 20-40 km/hr becoming southwest 30-50 km/hr by evening. Highs 17-20 C. The afternoon will be very muggy and rather warm inland in the south and east.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy, showers clearing to the northeast then some sunny intervals, but another round of showers due later with stronger winds developing by evening from the south veering to westerly by evening. Morning lows 11-13 C and afternoon highs 17-19 C. Another 5 to 10 mm rain in some places. At the moment, I think the heavier rain will tend to stay near the northwest coast and some parts of the south and east could remain in modified drought despite these showers coming and going.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, reasonably warm although fresher to start in the morning due to brisk westerly winds. Lows 7-10 C and highs 16-20 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, warm. Rain possible especially in Connacht and west Munster by afternoon as winds increase rapidly to SW 50-70 km/hr. Morning lows 7-12 C and highs 17-21 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... The current model outlook generally suggests an unsettled weekend with a brief period of heavier showers and stronger winds. Watch for trends in this forecast because sometimes in warmer spells, events like this can sweep further north as models get a better handle on details, and the outlook may improve (but so far it hasn't).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... If that unsettled weekend does materialize, the trend beyond the 16th should be slowly improving back to warm and dry conditions with continued hints of very warm weather possible by about the 20th to 25th of June. (Added Monday, still looks this way, and some maps look quite toasty around the middle of the week or about ten days from now).

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy to partly cloudy, rather warm in west, mostly cloudy in east, cool due to east winds off North Sea. Highs will range from about 14 C in east coast districts to 22 C inland west.

TONIGHT ... Partly to mostly cloudy, showers developing, lows 10-13 C.

TUESDAY ... Showers, heaviest in western Scotland and parts of Wales, could remain dry in parts of southeast England. Highs 17-20 C.

OUTLOOK ... Tuesday becoming cloudy and showery with strong winds developing in Scotland and some parts of northern England by the overnight hours. Highs 17-20 C. From mid-week, the same trends and comments as in the Ireland forecasts apply to Britain. The trends are close to average for mid-June but relatively pleasant weather conditions in general, although another period of strong wind and heavy showers could hit Scotland around the weekend of the 15th-16th. Southern England eventually see very warm weather redeveloping with an even warmer spell before the end of June.

Forecasts for North America

Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms from the lower Great Lakes to the Gulf coast of northern Florida and Alabama. Highs generally a bit below normal in this region although feeling warm and humid at 22-25 C.

Hot and dry (35-42 C) in the southwest, south central and western half of the central plains regions ahead of a slow-moving and largely dry system moving out of the Rockies. A few showers or periods of rain will develop later today across the northern Rockies.

My local weather on Sunday was partly cloudy with brief showers. It cleared up during the evening and I had another chance to view Mercury. If anyone in Ireland has clear skies this evening (which looks doubtful) you'll find Mercury in binoculars fairly close to the upper right of the crescent new moon perhaps a half hour after sunset, with Venus quite bright and setting lower down at that point.

M.T. Cranium · 11-06-2013 7:48am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 11 June, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Morning rain will continue to move off to the northeast, followed by partly cloudy skies with isolated showers and chance of a thunderstorm developing, further rainfalls generally about 3 to 10 mm, with the heavier amounts for Ulster where rain will continue to mid-day. Winds southerly 20-40 km/hr becoming southwest 30-50 km/hr by evening. Highs 17-20 C. The afternoon will be very muggy and rather warm inland in the south and east. Watch for updates in case any heavier storms develop.

TONIGHT ... Mild and humid with fog and mist, intervals of light rain or drizzle, about 5 mm in some western and northern counties. Lows 11-14 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy, showers clearing to the northeast then some sunny intervals around mid-day, but another round of showers and thunderstorms due later with some heavy falls between Limerick and Dublin during the afternoon and evening (potential for 20 mm there, lesser amounts to north and south of this zone). Stronger winds developing by evening from the south to southwest, veering to westerly by evening. Afternoon highs 17-19 C.

THURSDAY ... Following some overnight showers with lows 7-10 C, sunny intervals will develop in central and southern counties, and it will become reasonably warm (highs 16-20 C) although fresher to start in the morning due to brisk westerly winds that will back to southerly later. Isolated showers may develop in parts of the north and west later in the day.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud east, rain likely from early morning in Connacht and west Munster, spreading across the country by afternoon as winds increase rapidly to SW 50-70 km/hr. Morning lows 7-12 C and highs 17-21 C in the east, 14-17 C west.

SATURDAY ... Windy at first (W 50-70 km/hr), showers ending, then some clearing and less windy by afternoon and evening. Lows 11-13 C and highs about 15-17 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy although some longer sunny intervals possible in the midlands, some rain or showers may be developing across the south and possibly the east (Dublin southward) in northeast winds of 20-40 km/hr, but there remains a chance that the day will be largely dry in most places, if low pressure stays far enough south as it moves by ... lows near 7 C and highs near 15 to 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some of the models have become more unsettled for the week following next weekend, but this may be a good thing as we've been seeing an ebb and flow in model evolution, and as the next change could be the final one it may be good that we're in this pattern of changes with a week to ten days left to the outcome. This morning's European model (the most reliable on average) seems to be hinting at a slow reloading of the warm easterly flow pattern that made the first ten days of June so enjoyable. On the whole, we'd have to say that chances seem fairly good that another warm spell could develop before the end of June, and there's a slight chance of that being warm enough to call a hot spell (perhaps a one in three chance for southern England but one in five for Ireland). We should get better clarity on all this towards the end of this week. The maps that have been on display recently in that time frame also hint at thunderstorm potential so it could be an interesting scenario if heat does build up over France then southern England about a week to ten days from now.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Showers, heaviest in western Scotland and parts of Wales, lighter but persistent showers in the south and east. Highs in the south about 18 C, 14-16 C north.

OUTLOOK ... From mid-week, the same trends and comments as in the Ireland forecasts apply to Britain. The trends are close to average for mid-June but relatively bland weather conditions in general, although another period of strong wind and heavy showers will likely hit Scotland around the weekend of the 15th-16th. Southern England could eventually see very warm weather redeveloping with highs back towards the mid-20s later next week.

Forecasts for North America

Heavy rainfalls continue to move east through parts of the eastern U.S. including the lower Great Lakes including parts of eastern Ontario and southern Quebec. The central regions remain largely dry and warm, trending to hot in Texas and Oklahoma. As a frontal system advances out from the Wyoming portion of the Rockies, rain will slowly develop in the northern plains states but heavier falls are expected tomorrow when this reaches eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota and Iowa. Meanwhile, it remains very hot and dry in the southern Rockies and across the desert southwest into the southern plains, with highs close to 40 C.

My local weather on Monday was sunny with cloudy intervals, and the high was a pleasant 18 C.

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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