Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 5 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Generally dry in most parts of the country, a little rain on Tuesday morning across the north. The dry spell will intensify towards next weekend as high pressure swells up over Ireland and Great Britain. Temperatures will be reasonably warm in the daytimes, and chilly at night once the residual cloud still around today begins to dissipate. There could be some persistent fog during morning hours especially later in the week when colder temperatures set in at night. On the other hand there could be some longer spells of daytime sunshine as well.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter spells mainly in the afternoon and in the southern counties. A few patches of light rain or drizzle are left over from yesterday and will gradually dissipate. Winds already more moderate will only remain a factor in some northern coastal districts. Highs 15 to 18 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy, fog patches, lows near 7 C.

MONDAY partly cloudy, light rain reaching the northwest coasts by late in the day, highs 15 to 18 C.

TUESDAY rain will move through during the morning, fragmenting to showers further south. A few sunny intervals will follow. Lows near 10 C and highs 14 to 18 C.

From WEDNESDAY on, lasting for about a week, high pressure will build up to the north and east. This will lead to light southeast breezes or calm conditions, widespread clear skies that become foggy after midnight towards mid-morning, and brief warm conditions from mid-day to late afternoon. Lows will be generally 2 to 5 C but some frosts are possible. Highs will be 14 to 18 C, possibly close to 20 C in some sheltered western coastal districts, but could be held down anywhere that fog turns to low cloud. A more disturbed and windy interval looks probable after around Wednesday 15th.

My local weather on Saturday was partly cloudy to overcast with passing showers, generally rather light. The high was around 14 C so it felt like fall. Our colour change is quite gradual this year. In central and eastern states, some highs set daily or even October monthly records near 32 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 6 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Rather cloudy at first, increasing amounts of sunshine through the week; generally dry apart from a rather weak frontal band of rainfall affecting mainly north and west tomorrow. It may stay dry for almost two weeks as high pressure remains strong to the northeast, creating a dry southeasterly flow.

FORECASTS

TODAY some intervals of hazy sunshine in the south and east, mostly cloudy west and north. Highs 15 to 19 C.

TONIGHT rain will spread gradually into northwest, otherwise mostly cloudy but dry, lows 8 to 11 C.

TUESDAY rain will fragment to showers as the weak frontal system drifts further southeast, but some parts of the south and east may not see much if any rain at all. Highs 14 to 17 C.

WEDNESDAY mixture of cloud and sun, lows 5 to 8 C, highs 15 to 18 C.

From THURSDAY on, rather cloudy at times near south coast, mixture of sun and cloud each day further north, dry, some rather cold nights (lows 2 to 5 C) with isolated frost, but days warming to 14 to 18 C range in most places. Some coastal areas will have a narrower range of temperature from 8 to 13 C.

This dry spell as of latest guidance could break down quite gradually as a storm track develops to the south, bringing rain into parts of Britain while Ireland remains generally dry longer.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny with a few cloudy intervals and cool with highs near 13 C. By contrast it was near 30 C in many parts of the central and eastern U.S. and eastern Canada.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 7 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Rather cloudy with slowly increasing amounts of sunshine at least in southern and eastern counties; temperatures close to average, or slightly above later in the interval. Dry apart from some light rain in some areas today.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of drizzle or light rain, perhaps becoming a bit heavier for a while this afternoon in parts of the inland southeast and west Munster. Highs 12 to 15 C.
TONIGHT overcast with a few clear breaks, drizzle ending. Lows 7 to 10 C.
WEDNESDAY cloudy with some sunny breaks developing across parts of the south, central, western counties. Patchy drizzle could continue in some coastal districts at times. Highs 14 to 18 C.
THURSDAY to SUNDAY will bring a settled, partly cloudy interval with some sunshine each day for most areas, more likely to be cloudy in far northern districts. Lows 3 to 7 C, isolated frosts possible. Highs 15 to 19 C. Winds generally light southeasterly.

The settled interval could continue for several more days next week; eventually strong lows well off the west coast moving north could spread in more cloud and frontal rainfalls with winds increasing to moderate southeast to south.

My local weather on Monday was sunny with a few clouds, and cool with highs near 13 C. It remains very warm over central and eastern regions of North America.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 8 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Dry, rather cloudy at first, becoming sunny at times towards the weekend. Winds will become very light and variable under strong high pressure, fog is likely in rural valleys each morning. The settled spell could last up to two weeks.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and some patchy drizzle near north coast. Highs 14 to 17 C.
TONIGHT partly cloudy, fog patches forming towards dawn. Lows 6 to 9 C.
THURSDAY partly cloudy to overcast, highs 15 to 18 C.
FRIDAY partly cloudy, some longer spells of hazy sunshine in southern and central counties. Morning fog may be a little more persistent in places. Lows 3 to 7 C, highs 15 to 18 C.
From SATURDAY into NEXT WEEK, little change from Friday's outlook as high pressure comes to a halt very close to Ireland, fog could become more and more persistent going further into this spell, but also hazy sunshine could become more dominant at times. The end of the spell may come when the high drifts far enough west to allow in a colder flow from the north but this is rather tentative at best, other solutions are quite possible.

Tropical Storm Jerry has formed in the low latitudes north of South America and may be swept up into a nearly stationary mid-Atlantic storm in about a week, after possibly becoming a cat-1 hurricane east of Bermuda for a day or two. This storm will be held in the central ocean realms by the blocking high over western Europe.

My local weather continues to be very pleasant, with clear skies all day and highs near 15 C. A cold front will be putting an end to the four-day warm spell in eastern and central regions of North America.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 9 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Cloudy with a few breaks in the overcast, more frequent in the east; dry apart from some coastal drizzle in the north, light winds. This spell will last until the middle of next week and will then gradually transition to more unsettled conditions although still rather quiet for mid to late October.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and some light mist or drizzle near some northern coasts. Light winds, highs 14 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with fog developing in some inland valleys, lows 4 to 8 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy and mild with light winds, highs 14 to 18 C.

The weekend and early next week will be similar; anywhere the sun manages to pop out for any length of time will easily warm to 17 or 18 C, cloudier spots will be 14 to 16 C. Nights will become more prone to fog and mist, and that may linger well into morning hours in some inland low-lying areas, with overnight lows 3 to 7 C.

Any change in the blocked pattern will likely be gradual and start to show its hand towards a week from now, as Atlantic fronts begin to make some inroads. Stronger disturbances seem likely to remain well out to sea. One of these, non-tropical at present time, is spinning around near 40 deg W. Further southwest is tropical storm Jerry which may become a hurricane, but will be challenged to gain much latitude and could head back eastward at about the latitude of Madeira, south of the Azores. Finally the ingredients for the next tropical storm, Karen, can be found north of Bahamas at present; that one is likely to remain near the U.S. east coast for about a week after it comes together this weekend possibly.

My local weather was apparently about the same as your own, cloudy with some brighter spells thanks to a few gaps in a mid-level cloud deck, and around 16 C, almost no breeze; our autumn colour is near peak now and it was very pleasant for golfing or driving around. Wildlife are on the move getting ready for winter; bears are being seen around the region but not by us recently, but we did see a coyote and two deer (luckily nowhere near each other). Tonight there's a full moon occasionally visible through the broken cloud layers.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 10 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Rather cloudy, mainly dry, with near average temperatures. There could be a few sunny breaks in some parts of the southern and central counties during the weekend.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks possible across the inland south and east. Light winds, highs 14 to 17 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy to overcast, fog patches developing, lows 6 to 9 C.

WEEKEND will continue with mostly cloudy skies, a few sunny breaks possible, and light winds, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 13 to 17 C.

This bland weather regime will continue well into next week before gradually changing to a more unsettled and damp if not overly wet regime as some Atlantic moisture begins to return in stronger southwest winds. Temperatures will stay in the same general range.

In the mid-ocean, the NHC have named the low as Sub-tropical storm Karen, but it will only have those characteristics for a day or two, and will remain trapped between ridges that are not moving much. Jerry looks rather weak and chances of it becoming a hurricane are fading. The next low pressure development closer to the U.S. east coast will struggle to become fully tropical and it is not being tagged yet as a possible named storm, but it will bring considerable rainfall to the mid-Atlantic and northeast coastal regions.

My local weather was mostly sunny with a high near 18 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 11 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Anticyclonic gloom has set in and there are very few breaks in the overcast so far. It could improve slightly to give a few sunny breaks over the coming days, as the high weakens slowly and is no longer directly overhead. But there may be very little noticeable change in the weather until a week from now when a slow return to a more mobile pattern will set in.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy, with a slight chance of brief brighter intervals in a few places. Winds very light, and a bit of an elevated mist that may obscure some higher peaks at times. Highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT mostly cloudy, misty, lows 7 to 10 C.

SUNDAY mostly cloudy, highs 13 to 15 C.

The only change day to day in the coming week will be a slight easterly breeze developing, and some damper conditions at times due to patchy drizzle, highs staying in a range of 13 to 16 C, and nights 6 to 10 C. The lack of clear skies is preventing dense fog from forming at night, if any clearing did develop during the middle of the week, some dense fog would probably form quite easily but it needs to start with temperatures falling to the saturation point which is around 4 C.

Eventually there will be a more mobile pattern, some guidance has gone back to an earlier theme of slight retrogression of the high allowing a colder northerly to develop. But I think it's safe to say the models have little skill at establishing the exact details of how these blocks eventually transition.

My local weather was cloudy to start, then sunshine returned and it was a pleasant 17 C. Meanwhile, the mid-ocean storm (including STS Karen) shows signs of moving north and then west away from Ireland; Jerry is quite a weak system and chances are fading that it will ever be a hurricane. The east coast low for the U.S. looks like being a miserable few days of rain and wind along the coast from the Carolinas northward to New England.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 12 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Mostly cloudy, light winds, patchy drizzle but generally dry, becoming raw and wet towards next weekend as the blocking high breaks down.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with light winds, some mist and drizzle in a few places, brief brighter intervals possible, highs 13 to 15 C.
TONIGHT overcast, misty, lows 6 to 9 C.
MONDAY to WEDNESDAY, little change, mostly cloudy, light easterly winds near coasts, patchy drizzle, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 12 to 14 C.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY are likely to remain similar but with a little stronger east to southeast breezes developing, which may result in some longer bright spells, but also feeling a bit colder due to these breezes of 30-50 km/hr. Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 12 to 15 C.
By next weekend (18th-19th) breezy to windy with occasional rain, rather raw and wet, easterly winds 40 to 70 km/hr, temperatures steady 11 to 13 C.
A more variable pattern appears likely to follow once that disturbance moves away to the southeast, with a larger range in temperatures possible including some rather cold days.
No changes in the tropical and Atlantic storm info from previous report. Jerry has ceased to show much sign of further life but could recover in a few days. Karen is no longer a named storm but the remnant low is drifting north. A strong coastal low is forming near the North Carolina - Virginia border.

My local weather changed to low cloud, mist and drizzle on Saturday with a rather chilly high of about 9 C. This could transition to wet snow on higher slopes around us and once the cloud clears away on Monday I am expecting to see snow-covered peaks for the first time this season.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 13 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … You guessed it, cloudy with light winds, patchy drizzle, and near average temperatures. There may be a gradual improvement mid-week in terms of more frequent brighter spells appearing in more places (it has been noted in a few places over the weekend but not very many). A change to more unsettled conditions will take place near the end of the week and then a regime of alternating dry and wet days will set in, quite normal for late October.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with patchy drizzle and mist, and also a few brighter intervals most likely in the inland southwest. Highs 13 to 16 C.

TONIGHT mostly cloudy, fog or mist patches, lows 6 to 10 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY mostly cloudy with patchy drizzle and mist, a few afternoon sunny breaks possible, highs 13 to 16 C. Overnight lows 6 to 10 C.

FRIDAY partly cloudy, a moderate southeast wind will set in, rain may approach the southwest by afternoon or evening. Highs 12 to 15 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK some rain at times, moderate east to northeast winds, rain could be heavier in the south. Lows near 7 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

Once that disturbance moves on, relatively mild southwest flow will develop, some days will be wet and windy, others will be partly cloudy and dry; timing these intervals would be more or less random this far out, and temperatures will stay rather mild.

My local weather started out cloudy and cold, with the sun dimly visible in a stratus layer just around local peak elevation of 2500 meters. Later on, wet snow that had been falling earlier on the peaks began to fall at our elevation (1000-1100 m) and we now have a coating on the ground of about 2 cm of wet snow. Despite that, mild autumn weather lies ahead once this weak system moves off to the southeast. We still have nearly full leaf cover on our deciduous trees (the local forest is about a 50-50 mix of deciduous and evergreen) so there's a risk of power failures as branches could fall on power lines, or drivers could crash into power poles. So far so good. Meanwhile on the east coast, there are scattered outbreaks of rain and cool northeast winds from a coastal low. Better weather lies over central regions. Recently there have been unusually heavy rainfalls in Arizona and Utah from remnants of a Pacific hurricane; Phoenix has seen 75 mm of rain in the past few days, well above their normal monthly total.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 14 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Mostly cloudy, generally dry until Saturday when some light rain will spread into southwest, becoming a bit more variable by the following week although still rather bland in more of a southwesterly air flow.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter spells, patchy drizzle in a few locations, highs 13 to 16 C.

TONIGHT cloudy, some mist and fog, lows 7 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY the week will progress with little change, cloudy with a few breaks, and patchy drizzle, light southeast winds gradually picking up to 30-50 km/hr near south coast. Lows 7 to 10 C and highs 13 to 16 C.

SATURDAY rain will gradually spread east through most regions, reaching parts of north Leinster and east Ulster by evening. Lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY variable cloud, showers, moderate southwest winds, lows near 9 C and highs near 15 C.

The following week will bring moderate westerly winds backing to southwest later on, and temperatures in the same general range, a little above normal by then.

Lorenzo is the only named storm at present; it is a very small tropical storm well away from any land in the tropical Atlantic and is expected to have a brief and uneventful history. The coastal rain and wind in the eastern U.S. will die off as that low moves further out to sea later today. My local weather began very cold with clear skies over a fresh snow cover of 5-7 cm, which melted away except in a few shaded areas during the afternoon as highs reached 8 C. A drive around the area revealed the lowest elevation of any snow cover was 900 meters (we're at 1050 m) and even around the town snow cover varied considerably with elevation; took in some very nice views of fall colour against a backdrop of snow covered peaks.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 15 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Cloudy, generally dry with patchy drizzle and mist, winds picking up gradually to moderate speeds over the weekend with outbreaks of rain, as a more mobile weather pattern develops. Temperatures close to average.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with patchy drizzle and mist, southeast breezes 30-50 km/hr near south coast. Highs near 14 C.
TONIGHT mostly cloudy, drizzle and mist, lows near 10 C.
THURSDAY mostly cloudy, moderate southeast breezes developing, highs 13 to 16 C, mildest inland southwest.
FRIDAY cloudy with moderate southeast breezes, lows near 10 C and highs 13 to 16 C. Rain by evening in the southwest.
SATURDAY outbreaks of rain, heavy at times in western counties, arriving by afternoon or early evening in north Leinster and east Ulster. Lows near 11 C and highs near 14 C.
SUNDAY variable cloud, some brighter intervals likely, showers, lows near 11 C and highs near 14 C.
MONDAY, breezy, a bit cooler, passing showers and sunny breaks, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
From TUESDAY on towards the following weekend it will be rather mild and wet with moderate to strong southwest winds at times, temperatures around 12 to 16 C. It could turn considerably colder at the end of October.

My local weather was sunny and cool with snow and ice persisting in shady spots, highs near 8 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 16 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... The long spell of dry, cloudy and nearly calm weather is about to give way to a more mobile pattern with frequent rainfall and temperatures staying close to average.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with generally dry conditions in light southeast breezes, patchy drizzle, highs 12 to 14 C.
TONIGHT will be overcast with drizzle at times, lows near 10 C.
FRIDAY cloudy with a few brighter intervals as winds begin to freshen to southeast 30-50 km/hr. Highs 11 to 14 C. Some rain will begin over the southwest by evening.
SATURDAY outbreaks of heavy rain likely across parts of the south and west, moving slowly into central counties while east and northeast remain dry for much of the day. Winds southeast to south 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.
SUNDAY variable cloud, showers and isolated thunderstorms, not as windy, lows near 11 C and highs 13 to 15 C.
MONDAY variable cloud, some persistent light rain in north and east, more showery elsewhere. Lows near 9 C and highs near 13 C.
TUESDAY mostly cloudy with a few breaks, passing showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
A "battleground scenario" appears likely to develop after that as colder air tries to find a way to move south but the Atlantic will be trying to maintain control and take a more southerly course towards eastern Ireland and Britain. Results are not that clear yet, it will probably be wet quite often during the last third of October.

My local weather continued sunny and cool with remnants of the weekend snow still visible in shady spots and on hilltops nearby. It was around 10 C for a maximum. The tropical activity has fully died out for the time being with some threat of a new storm forming in about a week near Cuba.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 17 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Rain will become frequent starting on Saturday, with temperatures a little warmer by Sunday and Monday, falling back to average values after Tuesday. Some hints of a colder week to follow.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with winds slowly increasing to southeast 30-50 km/hr, highs 12 to 14 C.

TONIGHT overcast with rain spreading into the southwest after midnight. Lows 9 to 11 C.

SATURDAY outbreaks of heavy rain, isolated thunderstorms, north Leinster and east Ulster dry to mid-afternoon. Highs 12 to 15 C. Winds southeast to south 40 to 70 km/hr.

SUNDAY variable cloud, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms, lows near 11 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

MONDAY partly cloudy to overcast, intervals of rain, lows near 10 C, highs near 15 C east, 12 C north and west.

TUESDAY variable cloud, isolated showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY rain may be persistent as low pressure arrives and stalls over the Irish Sea, some western counties may see strong west to northwest winds, temperatures steady 10 to 12 C.

Thereafter, it may turn rather cool but this is not yet confirmed as the Atlantic regime may try to reload.

My local weather was sunny to early afternoon and then clouds arrived in advance of a showery frontal system expected to pass later Friday. It was around 15 C after a morning frost.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 18 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Rain will now become frequent, spreading across the country today rather gradually, and returning most days this coming week. A stormy interval will follow around mid-week, and it will then turn colder after several days of near average temperatures. This colder spell looks short in duration and the end of the month could see a return to dry and mild conditions for a time.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be overcast with rain spreading gradually across Munster, reaching south Connacht and south Leinster by afternoon. Other parts will remain dry until this evening. Moderate southeast winds, 15-30 mm of rain in parts of Munster. Highs 13 to 15 C.
TONIGHT rain will be heavy at times, especially over central and eastern counties. Winds moderate southeast to southerly. Lows 11 to 13 C.
SUNDAY variable cloud, heavy showers at first in east and north, followed by a few brighter intervals and a second round of heavy showers possible later. Highs 14 to 17 C.
MONDAY rain will spread back into parts of the south and west, spreading to the east by afternoon. Winds will pick up over Atlantic coastal counties by afternoon, northwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.
TUESDAY variable cloud, showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.
WEDNESDAY into THURSDAY an Atlantic storm will move in and become quite strong by Wednesday night -- this is the system that was on the east coast of the U.S. last week. It may briefly be a tropical storm as it crosses the Atlantic (around Monday northwest of the Azores) but this is where it begins to develop into a stronger entity in any case. Rainfalls of 20-30 mm and winds increasing to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, possibly higher gusts, will spread in across the country by Thursday morning. Temperatures will be steady around 10 to 12 C as the storm develops.
By FRIDAY into SATURDAY a colder northerly flow will be established in the wake of the storm now departing into the North Sea and eventually the Baltic region. Temperatures will fall to values not seen yet this autumn, highs only 6 to 9 C and lows near freezing in some inland locations, in moderate northerly winds and cold showers including some hail and probably sleet on hills.
This colder interval looks like it will only last a couple of days before high pressure builds up again and while it could remain frosty for a few more days, daytime highs will be back into the 10-13 C range after Sunday 26th and could be quite mild towards end of the month as a southwest flow develops without too much wind or rain associated except perhaps near northwest coasts.

My local weather on Friday was cool and unsettled with a few brief passing showers, highs near 10 C, and glimpses of sunshine giving some nice scenes of different lighting conditions on the fall colours still going strong despite some leaf fall in the blustery northwest winds.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 19 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Frequent rain, occasional strong winds, and temperatures near average, falling several degrees by Friday-Saturday, then back to the current range again after that.

FORECASTS

TODAY further heavy showers will move slowly east through Leinster and Ulster, with partial clearing to follow, but more showers could develop after a few sunny intervals. It will turn a bit milder with highs 14 to 17 C.

TONIGHT a few showers, mist or fog patches, lows near 11 C.

MONDAY variable cloud, some morning intervals of rain across the south, then showers in most areas by afternoon, winds gradually increasing to northwest 40-60 km/hr in Atlantic coastal counties. Highs 12 to 15 C.

TUESDAY variable cloud, a few showers, moderate northwest winds dying out by late afternoon. Lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.

WEDNESDAY increasing cloud, becoming quite windy, rain by afternoon and evening, temperatures steady 11 to 13 C.

THURSDAY becoming very windy in some western and later northern counties (west to northwest 70 to 100 km/hr), as bands of rain move across the country. Temperatures steady 11 to 13 C, falling to near 8 C late in the day.

FRIDAY windy and colder, passing showers, sleety on some higher terrain. Winds northerly 40 to 70 km/hr, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 8 to 10 C.

SATURDAY variable cloud, isolated showers wintry on some hills, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 6 to 9 C.

From SUNDAY 26th on, milder again and generally dry for several days before a more unsettled interval develops into early November. Temperatures will return to current range of 12 to 15 C.

My local weather on Saturday was cloudy with a few brighter intervals, with light rain by evening and overnight. Highs were around 12 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 20 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Unsettled with temperatures close to average, colder with strong winds around Friday and Saturday, then back to a milder regime and more settled towards end of month.

FORECASTS

TODAY some light rain will continue to move across the southern counties and later up the east coast towards east Ulster. The areas further north and west will be partly cloudy with a few showers. Winds will gradually increase on Atlantic coasts to northwest 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs 12 to 14 C.
TONIGHT variable cloud, a few showers, breezy (northwest 40 to 60 km/hr) and cool with lows around 8 C.
TUESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, moderate northwest winds, showers. Highs 10 to 13 C.
WEDNESDAY mostly cloudy, breezy to windy (westerly 50 to 80 km/hr), showers, or more persistent rain in some western counties, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
THURSDAY windy and turning colder with passing showers, winds west-northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs 10 to 12 C.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY will be windy and cold days with passing showers, some with hail and (on hills mainly) sleet, highs near 10 C at best, morning lows 4 to 6 C. Winds northwest to north 50 to 90 km/hr.
By SUNDAY the winds will be more moderate and it will not be quite as cool with highs near 11 or 12 C.
The following week will likely be rather mild with a more settled theme as Atlantic disturbances weaken and track further north, highs of 12 to 15 C likely into the first few days of November.

My local weather on Sunday was rather miserable, after 2-3 cm of wet snow started to mix with a cold drizzly rain, and fog moved in, with temperatures only around 4 C at best.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 21 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Rather unsettled in general, and becoming quite windy at times later in the week, turning colder briefly Friday-Saturday, then a much milder spell to end the month.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with occasional showers, more frequent in north and west. Highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with occasional rain, lows near 7 C.

WEDNESDAY variable cloud, outbreaks of rain more persistent near south coast, winds generally variable until a stronger northwest flow begins to dominate from west to east later afternoon and evening. Highs 11 to 14 C.

THURSDAY windy with passing showers, winds westerly 60 to 90 km/hr, quite strong in exposed coastal locations by afternoon (possible gusts there to 110 km/hr). Rather cold with highs around 10 or 11 C.

FRIDAY windy and cold with passing showers, quite frequent in western counties where some hail and thunder possible. Lows near 7 C and highs near 10 C. Winds westerly to northwesterly at 60 to 90 km/hr, local gusts to near 110 km/hr.

SATURDAY windy and cold, showers more isolated away from coastal areas exposed to northwest winds where bands of squally showers will make landfall, winds northwesterly 50 to 80 km/hr, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 8 to 10 C. Feeling colder in the wind though.

SUNDAY not as windy, turning milder, some rain will spread into northwest counties and become more showery after passing over central and eastern counties, south may remain largely dry, lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.

Next week will turn milder in stages in a southwesterly flow. It could be as mild as 14 or 15 C at times. This may activate the Atlantic storms eventually and by early November there could be gales developing.

Just a note, the storm approaching on Wednesday-Thursday evolved a little differently from the original plan, the mid-ocean storm near the Azores will partially fail to phase in and some of that energy will remain out near the Azores while another part moves across the Biscay marine area towards the Channel and southern England. This will largely bypass Ireland and most of the wind in the forecast is coming from the low circulating around to the north, diving southeast to catch up to the other system. Meanwhile the weaker portion out around the Azores will just meander around in that region while the cold spell comes and goes.

My local weather on Monday was mostly cloudy with a few patches of blue sky and it was a bit milder than the weekend at around 9 C, melting what little snow was left over by early morning. We are expecting a bit of a warming trend for several days before another minor winter episode timed for around next weekend. A more powerful winter storm will develop to our east and bring snow to the northern plains states and southern prairies. It will be seasonably mild further east although not much above normal for late October.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 22 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Frequent showers now to Saturday, rather windy at times, turning colder. A mild and dry interval will follow, but it could turn very unsettled or even stormy around the end of the month.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with outbreaks of rain across the south, becoming heavy at times in west Munster this afternoon. Further north, variable cloud and passing showers but smaller rainfall totals in most places. Highs 12 to 14 C. Towards mid-afternoon it will become rather windy across Connacht and west Ulster, westerly 40 to 70 km/hr.
TONIGHT windy and cool with passing showers, as the heavier rain moves east across east Munster into south Leinster. Lows 5 to 7 C.
THURSDAY windy and cool with intervals of rain and some locally heavy showers in moderate to strong westerly winds of 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs 8 to 12 C.
FRIDAY windy and cold with squally showers in a strong northwest wind of 60 to 90 km/hr. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs 8 to 11 C.
SATURDAY partly cloudy, cold in moderate northerly winds, some bands of rather sleety showers. Lows 3 to 5 C and highs 7 to 10 C.
SUNDAY cloudy across the north with occasional light rain, variable cloud and some brighter intervals in the south, milder. Lows 5 to 7 C and highs 12 to 15 C.
MONDAY to WEDNESDAY of next week will continue mild with a few outbreaks of light rain in a southwest flow, more likely to produce rainfall further north. Highs 13 to 15 C.
Around THURSDAY 30th it could begin to turn quite windy and even stormy at times through FRIDAY 31st as potential hurricane Melissa (now a tropical storm near Jamaica) could join the energy of a strong jet stream and accelerate past the Azores towards northwest Ireland. Too early to call any details of course, nine or ten days away, but the setup favours a possible windstorm that we'll need to watch closely in coming days. It could also be briefly near record warm as this pattern brings about a strong southwest flow from near the Azores, 17 C is possible. Once this storm comes and goes there could be a few more strong frontal systems in a zonal (westerly) flow.

My local weather on Tuesday was pleasantly sunny and a bit warmer than the weekend at around 12 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 23 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Cool and windy at times with outbreaks of rain becoming more showery towards the weekend; generally dry by Sunday and staying fairly benign for the first half of next week as it turns milder again. A stormy end of the month is possible but forecast models are having a difficult time trying to anticipate how hurricane Melissa will develop and where it will track once fully evolved. This means that no forecast guidance is all that reliable yet for the last few days of October, one possible scenario is a strong storm across western Europe, but another potential outcome is for most of the hurricane's energy to head towards North America and for less violent storm systems to continue to track towards Europe.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, once an area of rain over central Leinster moves southeast off the coast by mid-day. Further showers will develop in a northwest to northerly flow, and it will feel rather cold with highs 11 to 13 C. Winds northerly 40 to 70 km/hr for most areas already, and these winds will spread into Leinster as the rain departs.
TONIGHT cloudy with outbreaks of rain moving in from the north, cool and breezy with lows 5 to 7 C.
FRIDAY rain will clear south and be followed by bands of showers, some heavy with hail and thunder, in a strong north-northwest wind of 50 to 80 km/hr. Chilly with highs near 10 C in north to about 12 or 13 C near south coast.
SATURDAY variable cloud, showers, and some sunny breaks. Cool with lows 1 to 4 C and highs 8 to 12 C.
SUNDAY mostly cloudy by mid-day, milder, some outbreaks of rain by evening in Connacht and west Ulster mainly. Lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.
MONDAY to WEDNESDAY will be mild with occasional rain mostly over northern counties, lows will be 5 to 8 C and highs 13 to 16 C.
Around THURSDAY 30th and FRIDAY 31st, a stormy interval could develop, especially if extratropical Melissa moves in this direction (not anywhere near a certainty yet). It's likely to be quite mild as the month ends with perhaps a sharp drop in temperature to follow but a continuation of active Atlantic disturbances keeping the overall temperature trend near normal in early November.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy to sunny, and it was around 10 C after morning frosts and fog dissipated.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 24 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Cool and breezy to windy with frequent showers today and tomorrow, briefly dry and less windy by Sunday as a warming trend begins. From Monday to Wednesday, fairly settled in the south with more frequent rain further north, quite mild by mid-week. Thursday to the weekend of 1-2 November will be an unsettled interval with potential for significant wind and rain especially if any remnants of Melissa manage to enter the region.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be breezy to windy with passing showers, some briefly heavy with potential for hail and thunder. Some brighter intervals also, becoming more frequent by later afternoon. Winds west-northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, possibly a few higher gusts near active cells. Highs 10 to 13 C.
TONIGHT rather cold with passing showers, winds northwest 40 to 70 km/hr, lows 4 to 7 C.
SATURDAY a mix of cloud and sun with passing showers, likely in bands so that frequency from one location to another could vary, winds north-northwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Highs 9 to 12 C.
SUNDAY calmer especially inland south where a slight frost could develop in lows 1 to 4 C. Sunny with increasing cloud for the south, overcast all day further north with rain by evening. Highs 10 to 13 C.
MONDAY breezy with early morning rain fragmenting to showers, partial clearing by afternoon, winds westerly 40 to 60 km/hr, then returning to northwest for the afternoon. Lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C south, 11 C north.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY turning quite mild in a southeast to south wind flow, some sunny intervals, lows 3 to 7 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

THURSDAY into FRIDAY very active weather is likely, even if remnants of now tropical storm (expected strong hurricane by Monday) Melissa stay away from this region. That detail remains unresolved as the storm could take a more southerly course towards Spain, or even linger back in the western Atlantic, but a phasing with low pressure more certain to be close to Ireland by late Thursday is also still a possibility. At the least, we can expect showers or intervals of rain, windy conditions and very mild for a time (15 to 17 C). In a worst case scenario there could be a damaging windstorm in some parts of western Europe. Details will not be clear on this for several days at least.
Melissa is currently very slowly gathering strength east of Jamaica and south of Haiti. Various guidance already disagree on short-term trends, some taking the developing hurricane north across Haiti, others west across Jamaica and then across eastern Cuba. Some tracks have more land interaction than others, meaning the potential for intensification varies too. A general trend has emerged where Melissa strengthens to a major hurricane in about four or five days and emerges from the islands towards the eastern Bahamas. From there, it could track north towards eastern Canada, or even swerve west into the U.S. east coast. Or, it could take a track towards the Azores and from there it could enter Spain or France around the first of November. There are a lot of moving parts with strong lows tracking along the jet stream further north, and if Melissa happens to get pulled into one of those it could transfer energy and create an intense storm near Ireland too. I think there is quite a good chance of a moderate storm event around 1st-2nd of November after several days of unsettled weather, but so far would say the chances of an intense storm are about one in ten, so something to be concerned about watching for potential, but not actively preparing for an event at this point.

My local weather was fairly tranquil as mists parted during the morning to give several hours of sunshine before higher cloud from the south moved in. Highs were near 12 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 25 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Rather cool and unsettled at times, although some sunny intervals each day. Somewhat milder for part of next week. Uncertainty grows for events towards the end of next week with forecast models in disagreement about details.

Melissa is about to become a hurricane south of Haiti. Forecast models continue to struggle with its track even during the next three days and by day seven have entirely different scenarios — U.S. model (GFS) brings the hurricane across Jamaica and Haiti towards the central Atlantic but the latest model run weakens it to a remnant low in the central ocean southwest of the Azores; the European and two other models show a track south of Jamaica westward for three days before a northward turn across central Cuba. There is then disagreement about whether Melissa will continue on further north (towards eastern Canada) or just meander around weakening near the Bahamas.

So with all of that uncertainty, I cannot be too confident about details of the forecast for western Europe after mid-week. Forecasts follow …

TODAY will be partly cloudy with some decent sunny intervals especially in southern counties, but also some blustery showers with hail and thunder possible. Cool with north-northwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr at times. Highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT partly cloudy, showers less frequent, cold with localized ground frost, lows 1 to 4 C.

SUNDAY variable cloud, outbreaks of light rain, some sunshine at first though. Highs 10 to 14 C.

MONDAY breezy to windy (westerly 50 to 80 km/hr) with showers or intervals of light rain, mild. Lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY are likely to be fairly similar too with mostly cloudy skies, light rain and a few clear intervals in the mix, highs around 13 or 14 C.

By THURSDAY into FRIDAY we reach a situation where different forecast models begin to diverge because of different storm tracks; there is some chance of it becoming quite stormy with strong winds and a brief spike in temperatures, but also some possibility that the storm track will begin to shift south and place Ireland on the cooler side of some rain-producing lows.

Anything beyond that is very speculative at this point, and depends on what really happens with Melissa, which could easily be something considerably different from what the leading models depict at present. With that part of the picture a big unknown, we should probably wait for a few days before taking much heed of forecast model output for any region in that time frame.

My local weather on Friday was overcast but generally dry and reasonably mild at around 12 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 26 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Mostly cloudy, temperatures near average or slightly above at times, rainfall increasing later in the week. Storm risks remain low to moderate in the interval starting Thursday 30th and running into first week of November.

Melissa has become a major hurricane overnight and is slowly moving west to the south of Jamaica, which is at risk of a landfall by Monday, or a close encounter with the storm's core moving along their southern coastline. From there most guidance has a gradually weakening storm moving across Cuba towards the tropical Atlantic; chances remain low that extratropical Melissa will fully phase in with any Atlantic lows, and its energy could be largely dissipated by around 3rd of November. However a slight chance remains that it would phase into lows approaching Ireland around 2nd of November. Regardless, the interval looks quite unsettled.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy after a few brighter intervals this morning. Rain is gradually spreading into west Ulster and north Connacht, and will eventually cover much of the country by tonight, although a rather light and sporadic rainfall is likely. Highs 11 to 14 C.

TONIGHT intermittent light rain, lows near 7 C.

MONDAY rain tapering to showers, some clearing at times later, highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY variable cloud, isolated showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C.

WEDNESDAY cloudy, breezy with rain at times, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY looking quite unsettled with possible strong winds and rainfalls of 15-30 mm, temperatures steady 10 to 13 C.

The interval from Saturday 1st of November to about the 8th looks quite unsettled with frequent moderate wind and rain events, and the risk of something more intense although no definite indications of that. Temperatures would likely remain a little above average in a generally southwesterly flow.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast with light rain in the afternoon, highs near 8 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 27 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Mostly cloudy with rain most days, more frequent at first in northern counties. A break on Wednesday with more sunshine and lighter winds, then quite unsettled and possibly stormy as October gives way to November.
Hurricane Melissa has reached a strong cat-4 intensity and is crawling slowly westward to the south of Jamaica. Unfortunately most guidance now agrees that the intense hurricane will turn north and track over Jamaica and then east-central Cuba in the next two days. Only a wider turn or a sudden change in intensity could now spare Jamaica from a potentially disastrous situation given the slow forward progress of the torrential rains and damaging winds and storm surge. Cuba will also receive almost as strong a landfall by Tuesday night. The hurricane still looks capable of moving faster across the Atlantic and is now timed to merge with jet stream-driven low pressure near Ireland around Monday, 3rd of November. Hopefully the storm will be well past its strongest extratropical stage by then, but from this coming Thursday on, a chain of strong lows will be tracking past the west coast of Ireland and so there is some risk of a very strong storm developing at some point (this is not currently indicated however) ...

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few breaks in southern counties mainly, and occasional light rain getting somewhat heavier by afternoon in the west and north. Moderate westerly winds 40 to 70 km/hr and highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT breezy and mild with occasional light rain, lows 7 to 9 C.

TUESDAY variable cloud, some rain at times, breezy and a bit cooler with highs 10 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, briefly less windy and lows near 7 C, highs near 13 C.

THURSDAY windy with intervals of heavy rain, winds southeast 60 to 100 km/hr veering to westerly as low pressure tracks north along the west coast. Temperatures steady 12 to 14 C.

FRIDAY continued windy and wet, as a second low tracks towards the south coast. It could be very wet for Halloween night. Temperatures steady 10 to 13 C.

This unsettled weather pattern will continue well into November and as discussed above, remnants of Melissa are likely to join in at some point as the extratropical low takes some kind of track northeast across the Atlantic. Guidance varies as to details more than timing which is now clustered around 3rd of November for the remnants of the hurricane to track past Ireland. Whether it will make much difference to what was going to happen anyway with the strong jet stream in place, remains to be seen, hoping that this won't become a damaging storm (and once again, this is not currently the depiction on most weather models but it is a bit far off to be very certain on that.

My local weather on Sunday was a drab mixture of cold rain and melting snow that has left a bit of slush on some surfaces, with temperatures in the range of 2 to 4 C. Leaf fall has been rapid all weekend and some trees are now almost bare, but others in more sheltered locations still have a good fraction of their leaves still in place.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 28 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Rather unsettled although a brief break tomorrow could bring some sunny intervals. Becoming quite windy by Thursday into Friday. More active weather will follow, and remnants of Melissa appear likely to be joining the storm parade next week, hopefully the intensity will be moderate as shown on most guidance now.

Hurricane Melissa is one of the strongest hurricanes ever seen in the Atlantic basin now, at 901 mbs and a peak wind speed over 150 knots. It is a relatively small hurricane so the core with the most violent conditions is only about 50 to 75 km wide, the threat to Jamaica outside the path of that core will be 500-750 mm of rain. Looking at the population distribution of Jamaica, if this core were to bisect the island the catastrophic winds would not affect as many people as the other two possibilities (east or west). Also there is a faint chance of the hurricane weakening a bit as it still is not moving very rapidly, having made a turn northward towards Jamaica. Most guidance continues to show the track after Jamaica being across eastern Cuba, and then southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and near Bermuda by Thursday night. From there it is expected to merge with frontal systems moving east from North America around Saturday in the central portions of the Atlantic at about 45 N, and so far most guidance does not then develop the merged resulting low to very intense levels as it passes Ireland around Monday 3rd to Tuesday 4th of November. Keeping a close eye on that aspect as it could change.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers, and moderate westerly winds 40 to 60 km/hr, with highs 11 to 13 C.

TONIGHT breezy with occasional light rain, winds west-northwest 40 to 60 km/hr, lows 4 to 7 C cooler inland north as it begins to clear there.

WEDNESDAY sunny with cloudy intervals, any morning isolated showers should clear east before mid-day. Highs 10 to 13 C.

THURSDAY windy with occasional rain, heavy at times, 15-30 mm potential. Winds southeast to south 60 to 100 km/hr, veering to west-southwest 40 to 70 km/hr later. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

FRIDAY variable cloud, showers, breezy to windy with lows near 8 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

SATURDAY rain for part of the day, variable cloud and showers later, lows near 10 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

SUNDAY variable cloud, breezy to windy, showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 12 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY unsettled, windy, intervals of rain. This period is being watched for details of Melissa's participation in the resultant low expected to track well to the north of Donegal. Temperatures around 11 to 13 C.

Further unsettled weather seems likely.

My local weather on Monday was mostly cloudy with a few breaks, and passing snow showers that were fairly brief during the morning, as it warmed a little to near 6 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 29 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... The south will have a bit of a reprieve from the inclement weather today, then it's back to more wind and rain for most areas over the coming days, with risk of a more energetic storm developing towards Tuesday of next week, although no definite threat and guidance all over the place as models struggle to decode future events surrounding extratropical Melissa next week.
The powerful hurricane slowly moved across Jamaica earlier Tuesday where it did considerable damage to a swath of the west-central parishes. It was probably fortunate that it did not come in further west or east, either of those tracks would have unleashed worse damage on a much larger portion of the population, but for a few towns like Black River, Santa Cruz and Mandeville there is widespread severe damage and flooding (which will probably become more widespread as rain continues). The hurricane emerged somewhat weaker and is now gaining some strength again on its way to a second landfall in southeast Cuba just to the west of Santiago de Cuba (expected around 0400h local time). From there the hurricane, slowly weakening towards category 1, will head through the southern Bahamas towards Bermuda and it could even clip outer portions of southeast Newfoundland by Saturday.
The remnants of the storm will circle around in the north central Atlantic for about two days and my concern is that a secondary low could form in the wake of the dying system using all the heat energy it will bring north. There are hints of this on some guidance but nothing too well-defined yet.

FORECASTS
TODAY will remain rather windy in the north near a small-scale low pressure area moving through north Ulster. Bands of squally showers will affect parts of Connacht, Ulster and the midlands to north Leinster. Further south, showers more isolated and generous amounts of sunshine likely. Highs near 10 C north to 14 C inland south. Winds westerly 40 to 70 km/hr in parts of the north, less windy in the south and rather calm inland by afternoon.
TONIGHT increasing cloud with strong southeast winds developing, rain spreading into the south and west. Lows 7 to 10 C.
THURSDAY windy with rain, heavy at times, strong southerly winds 60 to 90 km/hr, veering to southwest 50 to 80 km/hr with partial clearance following into the southwest, highs 12 to 15 C.
FRIDAY variable cloud, windy, showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.
SATURDAY rain tapering to showers, breezy to windy, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
SUNDAY and MONDAY likely to be unsettled and rather mild, then by TUESDAY a storm risk may materialize as we watch developments in the vicinity of the Azores by Monday, along the frontal trough associated with extratropical Melissa likely to be located near Greenland by then. A second alternative is that the models have lost the plot with Melissa and it could remain more powerful and head closer to Ireland anyway (not as a damaging hurricane though). Time will tell; also this unsettled theme is not likely to disappear any time soon apparently.

My local weather on Tuesday got a bit milder despite a lot of low cloud and fog in the area, and it melted off the recent snow cover as temperatures edged up to near 10 C. The east coast of the U.S. has a low pressure system waiting to join forces with Melissa by Friday near Cape Cod and the resulting storm will head towards eastern Canada.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 30 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Mostly cloudy, mild and unsettled for the next week or longer, still watching the interval around Tuesday 4th to Friday 7th as strong storms could develop during the dying phases of Melissa's extratropical stage.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy and rain will spread across most regions, 15 to 25 mm can be expected. Southeast to south winds will veer to southwest, at 50 to 80 km/hr with stronger gusts possible in Atlantic coastal counties. Mild with highs 13 to 15 C.
TONIGHT mostly cloudy, occasional showers, moderate southwest winds, lows 8 to 10 C.
FRIDAY partly cloudy to overcast, showers, moderate southwest winds, highs 13 to 16 C.
SATURDAY early morning rain followed by variable cloud, showers. Moderate southwest winds, lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.
SUNDAY mostly cloudy, some light rain at times, moderate southwest winds, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
MONDAY partly cloudy to overcast, intervals of light rain, lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.
This weather pattern could continue with little change but with extratropical Melissa dying off in the north central Atlantic, and an extensive trough of low pressure over the central ocean regions, conditions could become ripe for any given moderate low travelling along in a steady parade to deepen to more intense levels, with perhaps an indication starting by this weekend if this is actually going to be the case. If so, timing could be anywhere from Tuesday to Friday of next week.

My local weather on Wednesday was mostly cloudy with some patches of blue sky after a light fall of snow in the early morning hours. Cloud bases were near our hillside elevation so we were watching fog banks drifting around on nearby hillsides with some sun getting through at the same time. It was around 7 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 31 October, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Mostly cloudy, rain most days with some heavier falls expected towards middle of next week, temperatures 2 to 4 deg above normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with some afternoon sunny intervals. Some heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms will move through central and northeast counties this morning, 10-15 mm of rain in some locations. More showery elsewhere. Winds south-southwest 40-60 km/hr, very mild with highs 14 to 16 C.

TONIGHT occasional rain, blustery southwest winds, mild. Lows 8 to 10 C.

SATURDAY rain tapering to showers by mid-morning, variable cloud, further rain by evening. Highs 11 to 13 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY variable cloud, showers, moderate southwest winds. Lows near 8 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will continue mild with south to southwest winds, some outbreaks of heavy rain likely, risk of an interval of strong winds depending on how much is left of extratropical Melissa by the time it tracks past the northwest coastal counties. So far guidance is not showing anything too extreme. Temperatures will remain in the range of 8 to 15 C from overnight to daytime hours.

Not much change is expected further along but it may not be as wet.

Melissa is approaching Bermuda now where it will unleash cat-1 to low end cat-2 hurricane winds from the south-southwest. It will clip southeast Newfoundland Saturday and slow down to meet its demise across the Atlantic.

My local weather on Friday was overcast and mild with highs near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 1 November, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Very mild with frequent showery rain but also some brighter spells most days. Quite windy on Monday into Tuesday, the extratropical remnant low of Melissa appears to be moving a bit faster than earlier projections but is still expected to weaken gradually; fortunately there are no strong temperature contrasts or jet stream forcing available to turn this into a severe storm (although its intensity right now to the east of Newfoundland is quite strong, it is expected to weaken steadily while combining with weaker systems nearby. After it brings along some very mild air masses, further low pressure systems forming along its cold front will bring in some intervals of heavy rain mid-week. The pattern remains mobile and generally mild and variable after that phase too.

FORECASTS

TODAY will become partly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts quite variable but could reach 15 mm in a few locations, with brief heavy downpours. Other places will only see 3-5 mm. Very mild with highs 12 to 14 C. Moderate southwest winds.
TONIGHT mostly cloudy, a few showers. Mild, lows 5 to 8 C for most places, a few spots that clear for a while could drop closer to 2 C.
SUNDAY partly cloudy to overcast, mild, moderate southwest breezes and a few showers. Highs 12 to 14 C.
MONDAY partly cloudy to overcast, intervals of rain, strong southwest winds 60 to 90 km/hr, a few higher gusts possible. Lows near 10 C and highs 13 to 15 C.
TUESDAY variable cloud, mild, rain becoming heavier in south towards late afternoon. Lows near 10 C and highs 13 to 15 C.
WEDNESDAY overcast with rain, heavy at times. Lows near 11 C and highs 12 to 14 C. Rainfalls of 20-35 mm are possible with some local flooding.
THURSDAY variable cloud followed by an interval of rain and wind, lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.
It may turn just slightly cooler after that weather system passes but only by a few degrees, and further mild spells appear quite likely towards mid-November.

My local weather on Friday was good for goblins and ghosts, misty and cold with highs of 4 to 6 C. A few snowflakes were in the air but no further accumulations.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 2 November, 2025 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS … Quite mild and frequently wet for the next week, eventually rainfalls could amount to twice average values for a weekly interval, and central counties will be wettest by mid-week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will begin with some partly cloudy weather and a few sunny breaks, then cloud will increase followed by outbreaks of light rain at least in most western and central counties. Highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT overcast, misty, with light rain, lows 7 to 10 C.

MONDAY breezy to windy (southwest 60 to 90 km/hr) with occasional rain, mild with highs between 14 and 16 C.

TUESDAY variable cloud, a few showers, heavier rain pushing in from the south late in the day, lows near 12 C and highs near 15 C.

WEDNESDAY outbreaks of heavy rain, some localized flooding possible, as 20-40 mm rain could fall especially in central counties. Lows near 11 C and highs 13 to 15 C.

THURSDAY rain tapering off to drizzle by morning then a few brighter intervals before a new disturbance arrives from the Atlantic, with lows near 8 C and highs near 12 C.

FRIDAY variable cloud, showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 13 C.

WEEKEND of 8-9 NOVEMBER is likely to be unsettled with possible strong winds and rain at times, but guidance is a bit chaotic by then as the southwesterly flow begins to split which may force some of these lows to dive southeastward approaching Ireland. That could lead to somewhat colder temperatures and alternating spells of wet and dry conditions around mid-month.

My local weather on Saturday was overcast and foggy (rather dark all day actually) with light rain and temperatures steady around 7 or 8 C. Our trees have now lost almost all their leaves but lower down in the valley in sheltered spots there are still a few areas of fall colours (around here that tends to be mostly gold with orange highlights and the odd flaming red bush or tree — also the tamarack which is a western larch variety turns colour to gold at this time of year).

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 3 November, 2025 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS ... Mostly cloudy and very mild, occasional rain becoming heavier by Tuesday night into part of Wednesday, some local flooding is possible.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be windy with occasional rain, and quite mild with highs of 13 to 16 C. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr.
TONIGHT occasional rain, mild, lows near 10 C.
TUESDAY variable cloud, mild, showers. Moderate south to southwest winds. Heavier rain will move into the south by evening, spreading north overnight into Wednesday morning. Temperatures steady 12 to 15 C.
WEDNESDAY rain may persist in some places but also some clearing is possible later, Mild, lows near 11 C and highs near 14 C.
THURSDAY very mild with occasional rain, drizzle and fog. Lows near 12 C and highs near 15 C.
This very mild spell may last for some time before slightly cooler air masses join the mix, but I don't foresee any large shifts in the weather pattern.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny with cloudy intervals, breezy and rather cold with highs near 7 C (it was colder in the nearby mountains where some snow flurries were observed; at present it is snowfree below 1400 meters around here and 3-7 cm of snow cover is on the ground above 1400 meters. A weak disturbance tracking up the U.S. east coast will explode on Tuesday south of Nova Scotia and produce a damaging windstorm for Newfoundland, remnants of that storm may be tracking towards Ireland by next weekend but not in the same intense form.
As mentioned last week, the low off to the northwest today is the remnant low of Melissa, and it was fortunate that with all that potential energy available the atmosphere remained relatively tranquil at higher levels, or today's moderate winds could have been very strong.