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Your daily forecasts from weather forum (NO CHAT)

  • 01-06-2009 6:56am
    Registered Users Posts: 13,920 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium

    Daily forecasts from weather forum

    Here's a new idea that is an expansion of what tends to happen on the forum whenever there is interesting weather ahead, a forecast forum where all can pitch in. My suggestion to get it started is as follows. Since I live eight time zones away and I am "up all night" in terms of your time zone, it is relatively easy for me to post a forecast at something like 0400 or before most people are up and about. Then other experienced weather followers on can update the forecasts they find as needed. It will be relatively informal, with perhaps more details than you'd expect from other sources, and you never know, perhaps glimpses of accuracy on rare occasions.

    I hope three or four other of the usual suspects would like to collaborate and get into this. As it grows into a regular feature, it could attract more general forum users to drift into the weather forum and perhaps we'll encourage more people to join in.

    So here goes the very first effort -- massive blizzard, oh sorry, that's left over from 2-3 February.

    Forecast for Ireland, Monday 1st June, 2009

    TODAY will continue to be warm and sunny in many parts of Ireland. The exceptions will be narrow coastal zones in the east and south where the steady E to SE breeze brings in colder marine air and perhaps some low cloud or fog. Also, there are some morning fog patches further inland that will quickly burn off in the warm sunshine. So by mid-day, look for mostly sunny skies in almost all parts of Ireland, just a few fog patches hugging the south or southeast coasts in places, and offshore from the west coast near some islands. For most people on land, highs will reach 22 to 26 C in bright sunshine, trending down to about 18 C a few kms inland from the south and east coasts, and 15 C right near the water in those areas.

    In this regime, Dublin tends to straddle all three zones, so it will depend how far inland you are and how high up above sea level to escape the sea breeze cooling. The city centre should get some periods of fog early and some warm sunshine later and highs near 19 or 20 C. Further inland it could be 23 C.

    TONIGHT will continue mostly clear and rather warm until well after midnight, so pleasant for evening activities, quite chilly for a brief period 0300-0600 around sunrise, when lows in some rural districts could fall to 5-7 C, closer to 10 C in the larger towns and cities, but then all inland parts of Ireland will be warming quickly in the early morning sunshine. Some shallow but in places dense fog will once again form in a few coastal and even inland locations, expect sudden changes in visibility on the roads in a few parts.

    TUESDAY is looking fairly similar to TODAY, if perhaps the sea breezes make more of a run inland on a stronger gradient wind, chilling some places 5-10 kms inland a few degrees lower than today's highs. Otherwise, most people should notice little if any change from today. There is a very slight risk of one isolated thundershower forming well inland, very few would see this however.

    WEDNESDAY is also looking fabulous for many as the warm ridge drifts further west and keeps Ireland under its influence while edging away from the UK. Their loss may be (our) gain as some of the warmest air available moves over Ireland, so it could even be a touch warmer than today for some. There may be a slightly greater risk of one or two isolated thundershowers at mid-afternoon. The fog and sea breezes will still be local issues near the south coast in particular.

    THURSDAY and FRIDAY will bring a cooling trend with partly cloudy weather, more chill to the breeze from the northeast and highs closer to 18-20 C for most, with overnight readings close to 7 C. Showers may break out for a few places, and by Saturday some will have recorded a few millimetres, although other districts could remain dry to the weekend.

    THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK is generally for unsettled weather and some chance of a steadier rain before a more mobile westerly pattern develops.

    Feel free to update or present alternative concepts ... and caveat emptor, I am but a humble scribe.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,920 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium

    C'mon lads, help me out ...

    So far, the pattern described in yesterday's forecast has not shifted very much if at all through the forecast period. So here's the Tuesday update ...

    Tuesday, 2 June, 2009 _ 0545h

    TODAY will be another fabulous warm and sunny day almost everywhere in Ireland. Like yesterday, it will be a touch cooler close to the east and south coasts, and quite a bit cooler right at the waterfront and out over the nearby waters (which are about 12-14 C about now). This will result in highs generally reaching 23 to 26 C in most parts today, with the same gradual reduction to near 15 C at the seafront. In those cooler locations, some fog may form although right now, it seems rather sparse compared to yesterday.

    TONIGHT will be clear and warm until well past midnight, then bottoming out only near 9 or 10 C at the lowest, but more like 14 C in some larger towns and near the west coast. Expect some more fog patches to develop after about 0200h.

    WEDNESDAY could even be a degree or two warmer as the heart of the ridge drifts back westward from around the southern UK, so it will be bringing even warmer air heated over southern England along for the ride. Highs could be 24 to 28 C in much of the country, and even near the east and south coasts it may be near 20 C as sea breezes will be quite weak. There is always the very slight risk of a shower near the centre of Ireland as regional breezes converge.

    THURSDAY now looks just about as warm, as the cooling influence about to descend on the UK will be held back behind a front that only reaches parts of Ulster late in the day from the east. That front could have some showers with it, but otherwise, expect another warm sunny day, lows near 11 C and highs near 24 C.

    FRIDAY is looking quite a bit cooler in strong NE'ly breezes that bring lines of swelling cumulus clouds that turn into brief showers at times. Sunshine may be quite limited except if you are lucky enough to find yourself between two of these many features. Lows of about 7 C will be followed by highs of about 17 C.

    SATURDAY will also be showery and cooler with mostly cloudy conditions and higher humidity, lows near 6 C and highs near 15 C.

    SUNDAY from this distance looks rather variable and might turn out not too badly for some as the cloud and showers will tend to break up slowly during the day. Lows of about 4-6 C will be followed by highs near 16 C.

    NEXT WEEK looks wet for a time, then it should try to return to this hot dry pattern but the next warm spell could have a more dramatic thundery breakdown.

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭force eleven

    Nice summary there MT. The cooling trend certainly seems to be dissapating somewhat to what the models were predicting late last week - i.e temps down to mid teens by Wedsneday widely. Clearly that won't happen,although the cooler weather is on its way for Thursday - high teens to 20 ain't bad in my book. Hopefully a reload on its way for next week,but too early to have any confidence yet....:cool:

    28C reached today in the west - according to Met Eireann - could be the peak of this particular spell...

  • Registered Users Posts: 112 ✭✭paulhac

    havnt been on here for a long time :( but great summary MT. I like the chance of a reaload even more a thundery breakdown but judging from some charts it could be a couple of weeks before the real heat builds back in

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,920 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium

    Forecasts for Wednesday, June 3, 2009 _ 0530h

    TODAY could bring the warmest readings yet in this long warm spell, especially in the western two thirds of Ireland. With mostly sunny skies again, expect highs of 25 to 29 C. Could it hit 30 C in one spot? Perhaps. Also, could there be a brief but intense thunderstorm? Yes, and the most likely area for these would be around Birr to Kilkenny. There is a very weak front drifting west, marked mostly by higher cloud, and this may trigger the storms around mid-day. East coast locations today could have a stronger and more noticeable sea breeze, so highs around Dublin may vary considerably from 16 C at the seafront to 24 C in places like Casement. We'll keep an eye on the radar and issue any updates to the storm potential.

    TONIGHT will be more cloudy than previous nights but still with some clear periods, and it could be quite warm and close (I would say humid here). The really cool air won't arrive in Ireland until after sunrise, so lows could be as mild as 12-15 C in some places. If there are any thunderstorms earlier, they could leave a potential for dense fog in valleys.

    THURSDAY will see subtle but eventually noticeable cooling trends in stages as the warmer air is forced to retreat to the southwest quarter of Ireland and then off to sea by nightfall. Highs in the southwest might reach 24-27 C again with a risk of a thundershower. From Donegal southeast to about Wexford there will be an intermediate zone with partly cloudy skies and highs of about 21-22 C. In Ulster and (if I am allowed to say this) NI, there may be lower cloud and drizzle in places with highs of 14-17 C. Dublin is likely to be cloudy with sunny periods and around 19 C.

    FRIDAY will bring quite a shock to the system (but not as bad as Scotland is going to get) as chilly air and strong NE breezes arrive. This will lead to widespread low cloud, some brief showers or prolonged periods of mist and drizzle, and a few sunnier locations mostly downwind from hills and mountains. After morning lows of 6-10 C the afternoon readings will be in the range of 12-16 C with the higher readings in Kerry and the Limerick area. Winds will increase to NE 25-40 knots over water and 20-30 mph over all but most exposed locations on land.

    SATURDAY is somewhat uncertain due to the chance of a strong low forming near Brittany and throwing some steady rain into the south. If that happens together with brisk east winds, it will be a pretty nasty day in the southern third of the country, and not a lot better further north although probably only light, spotty rain or drizzle there. Temperatures will stay steady in the range of about 8 to 13 C and rainfalls could be 10-30 mms in the south, 2-5 mms further north. Winds will be ENE 20-35 mph.

    SUNDAY will bring partly cloudy to overcast skies, about 3-5 hours of sunshine in total for some parts, and a few light showers here and there. Winds will not be as strong (from current indications) and the temperature range will be typically lows of 7 to highs of 15 C.

    NEXT WEEK ... I will leave that for later or for somebody who wants to tackle the subject. I have not seen the new guidance for it yet.

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 677 ✭✭✭darc

    So the latest forecast is scorching hot for today and a near possiblity of snow for the weekend! :)- Ahh, the Irish Weather!!

    Thanks for the updates - will put bbq & garden furniture back in covers til next year.

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭force eleven

    Thanks MT - nice summary again,particularly on the coming breakdown of this settled spell. I think you may hve overcooked todays temps by 2 or 3 degrees. Its about 2 C cooler here in the midlands than it was yesterday at this time - still very nice though, and a slight NE breeze now, which wasnt there yesterday. My guess is a top temp of 25- 26 further south of here. Not that we're complaining!

    Next week looks a bit unsettled, and temperatures around or slightly below normal - but early June often brings cool unsettled weather in the best summers so I'm hopeful we will get more decent weather over the next few weeks...

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,920 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium

    UPDATE _ 3:45 pm

    Radar shows development of some showers that may become thundery over the Mountains of Kerry near Glencar. This may signify later development over some other higher parts of the southwest. As this observer will be away from the internet shortly, any other experienced radar watcher might want to update further as needed.

    Also, much cooler air has begun to creep into coastal sections of the northwest and far west and this may lead to dense fog forming overnight in some of these areas, because the stronger push of deep-level cooler air is still some distance back to the northeast across the UK. This implies that the sea breeze incursions in the west would bring in additional moisture that will quickly saturate the air mass present after solar heating ends this evening.

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 26 obrienmichael

    Looking at the monthly outlook on the bbc website they say that it is to warm up from the 15th to the 28th June after this breakdown with the Azoures high building and moving up over the uk with some very warm days expected and some thundery outbreaks expected in the southeast of the uk. We usually get the same as the uk so i guess it's looking good. :cool:

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,920 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium

    Thursday, 4 June, 2009

    TODAY will be partly cloudy and still reasonably warm in many parts of Ireland, with more extensive cloud in the southeast where one or two showers could develop later. Highs will be 19 to 22 C for most, but a little cooler along the east coast and in some far northern parts of Donegal where 16 C might be the top reading.

    TONIGHT will be cloudy with some clear breaks, and one or two brief showers for some parts, with lows generally 6 to 8 C but locally as low as 4 C.

    FRIDAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks, these mostly in the Midlands and southwest, but there could be some lower cloud in places near the east coast and drizzle or light rain at times. It will be rather chilly with a raw northeast breeze as highs reach 12 to 15 C.

    SATURDAY will continue about the same only with more extensive areas of drizzle or light rain developing, and some locally heavier rain in the south. Amounts now appear likely to be 8-12 mms across some of the south and 2-4 mms across much of the northern half of the country. Lows will be around 6 to 9 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

    SUNDAY will see steady rain and northerly winds across the Irish Sea and parts of the southern UK, and this could back up into the Dublin area at times as well as affecting Wicklow and the southeast, but further west it may try to clear for a time, with unstable cumulus developing into locally heavy showers, bright intervals and passing showers for most, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

    NEXT WEEK looks wet to start with waves of moisture heading for Ireland from the southwest. Eventually these fronts start to produce a more northerly storm track that allows very warm and humid air to flow into the south and east, possibly generating some heavier thunderstorms at times. Highs next week are likely to start out near 15 C and head up into the lower 20s eventually. The time scale makes this far less than certain but around ten days from now it could be a case of tropical warmth heading north from France into the UK and setting up some possibly heavy storms for Ireland which would be under a frontal boundary between this hot air and much cooler air over the near Atlantic. Something to watch anyway.

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,920 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium

    Friday, 5 June, 2009

    TODAY will become more cloudy than sunny by afternoon, and then some light rain may develop in a chilly NE wind (15-30 mph). Highs will generally be around 15 or 16 C, but could reach 18 C in a few parts of the southwest.

    TONIGHT will be chilly and damp with periods of rain or drizzle, the raw NE breeze continuing, and lows around 7 or 8 C.

    SATURDAY may bring periods of heavier rain especially to the south and east with winds increasing at times to NNE 20-35 mph. With highs of about 12-14 C it may feel much colder than this past week has been. Some far western locations could see the odd glimpse of sun between passing showers, but it will be "umbrella weather" on any golf courses more likely than not.

    SATURDAY NIGHT is likely to be quite nasty as the rain gets heavier in places and reaches totals of 30-40 mms. Lows will be around 7-9 C. Winds will continue to back around slowly from NE to NNW over most of the country.

    SUNDAY will bring slight improvement although there is a risk that the steady rain will persist in Dublin and Wicklow regions. The further west or north you go on Sunday, the longer the dry intervals and occasional sunny breaks might become, although it won't necessarily be dry anywhere all day. Winds will become more NW'ly as the disturbance moves slowly away to the east, and highs will likely reach about 16 C although some places might be held to 13 C.

    MONDAY to WEDNESDAY is looking like a generally unsettled period with waves of moisture moving through Ireland fairly frequently, separated by drier and windy spells in a brisk SW'ly flow of Atlantic origins. Temperatures will be slowly moving up but only towards 18-19 C.

    LATER NEXT WEEK could be quite warm and thundery at times the way the models are developing a very warm pattern over France and England; in fact there are some indications that the very warm air will push into at least the southeast quadrant of Ireland at times. It should be an interesting period of potentially stormy weather if it continues to develop as indicated.

    Have a fabulous weekend despite any rain you may encounter, lots to do out of the rain I would have to imagine.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,920 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium

    UPDATE _ 5 June 1815h

    There is no large change in the situation or forecast but I am adding an (unofficial, personal basis only) heavy rainfall alert for parts of eastern and southern Ireland over the next 48 hours. Some places could get 40 to 60 mms of rain with strong NE winds at times and very chilly temperatures. Be prepared if you're planning any extended time outside, it will be quite unpleasant and a shock to the system after a week of really warm and dry conditions. I see from the latest observations that the first signs of this change are already evident in Dublin in the form of cool temperatures and stronger NE winds. The rain will follow later.

  • Registered Users Posts: 112 ✭✭paulhac

    thanks MT. yes its gone quite cold here in dublin now stiff cold wind. what are the chances of tstorms out of this

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,920 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium

    Will take a look at that possibility at forecast time (say around 0500) but first impression is, cold air rather stable and most of the precip is falling from relatively low-topped clouds so unlikely to be much thunder ... no thunder reports from the UK so far where tomorrow's Irish weather is now developing, but there is snow above 1,500 feet in the Peak District, I hear. :eek:

  • Registered Users Posts: 15,289 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre

    Will take a look at that possibility at forecast time (say around 0500) but first impression is, cold air rather stable and most of the precip is falling from relatively low-topped clouds so unlikely to be much thunder ... no thunder reports from the UK so far where tomorrow's Irish weather is now developing, but there is snow above 1,500 feet in the Peak District, I hear. :eek:

    yes. can you imagine the fun we would have if this was winter time.

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,920 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium

    Saturday, 6 June, 2009

    TODAY will become wet in most districts with showers evolving into longer periods of rain by late morning and afternoon. Winds will pick up to NE 20-35 mph with some higher gusts near northern coastlines. Highest temperatures will only be 12 to 14 C in most cases. Rainfalls of about 20-30 mms are possible especially through central districts then southern parts later.

    TONIGHT will continue damp, the rain may taper to drizzle in some central and northern, western locations but a steady rain may continue in the southeast. Lows will be about 5 to 7 C and winds NNE 20-30 mph.

    SUNDAY will bring slight improvements especially in western and some northern counties, where the sun could break through the heavy low overcast at times. Further east it may remain overcast all day with occasional showers, but to the west any showers are likely to be briefly heavy and could bring a rumble of thunder with them. Highs will reach about 16 C.

    MONDAY will also be cloudy with scattered showers or outbreaks of rain at times, with highs near 15 C.

    THE REST OF NEXT WEEK is looking rather wet with frequent frontal bands of rain moving up from the southwest across Ireland. Hopefully this pattern will eventually shift far enough north to allow warmer air into the southeast and allow for some thunderstorm development (to give the weather crew something interesting to watch).

    If anyone feels like updating this during the day, be my guest, I expect to be away from the internet for most of Saturday.

  • Fair play to you for this thread MT and you were and are on the ball.
    Theres a low off the southeast as we speak and looking at the circulation and radar-it's going to remain wet and very wet for the next 12 hours in the areas it's currently raining.

    There are some pulses of downpour rain over wales at the moment that are likely to circulate their way westwards into Ireland tonight.

    Some large totals are indeed likely.
    Here in south wicklow,I've recorded 11.2mm since noon and most of that has been since about 2pm and I've only been on the edge of the band,it's worse elsewhere,a lot worse.

  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno

    Max of just 10.8c here today, some light rain before noon, got heavy around 2 to 3pm with heavier outbursts on and off all afternoon. Currently 12.8mm recorded with some more to come.

  • Registered Users Posts: 15,289 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre

    as i suspected earlier in the week we escaped the rain altogether today. i doubt we'll be so fortunate if normal service is resumed from the south west during next week.

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,920 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium

    Monday, 8 June, 2009

    TODAY will start out relatively calm and dry except for some drizzle in a few southern districts. Eventually, some light rain will develop from the south and reach about as far north as Limerick to Dublin. This will come with gusty E to NE winds by late afternoon. Highs will reach about 14 C in the south, east and northeast, and as high as 16 C in the northwest, where some longer sunny intervals could develop.

    TONIGHT will be cloudy with more light rain in the south, to partly cloudy in the far north. Lows will generally be 7 to 9 C.

    TUESDAY will bring an interval of dry and perhaps sunny weather before more cloud spreads in, bringing another steady rainfall this time to most of the country, by evening. Highs will reach 15 to 17 C.

    WEDNESDAY will start out with rain and this could become thundery in places, with lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

    THURSDAY will bring a cooler northerly wind to start the day, as the rain moves east and some clearing develops. By afternoon and evening there may be a fair amount of sunshine and highs near 15 to 17 C.

    FRIDAY appears likely to bring another rainfall, possibly heavy at times, as more humid air arrives with a frontal system. The morning lows will be around 13 C, then afternoon temperatures 17 or 18 C.

    NEXT WEEKEND is looking unsettled and possibly thundery at times, with some sunny intervals as well, as fronts and troughs sweep across Ireland from the southwest. It will be relatively warm and rather humid, with highs around 19 or 20 C.

    I have the feeling that details will change fairly often especially on the timing of various periods of rain this week, and I hope the experisnced weather watchers will post plenty of updates as things evolve.

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,920 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium

    Just a brief update, it would appear that this evening's showers will be mostly confined to the western third of Ireland, and when these develop they have a tendency to move from east to west, so (this for the more novice readers out there) if you're thinking of some outside activities and wondering if you'll get wet or stay dry, have a look not to the west as you might normally do, but over to the east or northeast for any approaching showers. One or two of them could be thundery by the looks of the radar.

    From this evening to the weekend, see the above forecast, nothing much has changed on more recent forecast runs. The weekend is looking very interesting from the weather point of view, with very warm and humid air moving north out of France towards southern England, and deep low pressure developing south of Ireland and moving across the country on Saturday. This would suggest development of a strong frontal system with lots of energy for thunderstorms to form (on Saturday afternoon and evening) to be followed by more unstable and possibly thundery weather on Sunday. Stay tuned then.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,920 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium

    Tuesday, 9 June, 2009

    Well, as interesting as last week's weather may have been, this week is setting a new standard for dullness in more ways than one. Weak, low-energy weather systems are drifting northeast across the southern parts of Ireland and the UK, with brief dry if not clear spells in between.

    TODAY will see the last of the rain in the southeast from the overnight disturbance, then very gradual clearing should follow although sunshine may be at a premium anywhere but Donegal and Mayo, which could get some longer spells. (amended to read, another area of rain will form over the southwest and drift slowly towards south central Ireland late today, 10-15 mms possible here.) Highs today will reach 14 or 15 C, could be held down to 12 C by persistent cloud in a few eastern locales.

    TONIGHT should see a brief clearing trend early on in the northern half of the country, followed by more cloud moving in ahead of another weak trough. Some light rain will persist in the south and may spread towards the Dublin area later on. Lows will be generally 6 to 9 C, to 10-11 C in the southwest.

    WEDNESDAY will bring mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers, some of these possibly thundery, although this disturbance is so weak that it could just become a case of localized showers and some sunny breaks for a lucky few. Highs will reach about 15 C.

    THURSDAY should see some low cloud in the early morning and perhaps some clearing in the west around dawn, this spreading slowly east all morning to give a partly sunny mid-day and afternoon, although we can't totally rule out an isolated shower. Lows will be about 5 to 8 C and highs around 16 or 17 C.

    FRIDAY is looking showery and a bit warmer or at least more humid making it feel warmer, lows of about 10 C and highs near 18 C. One or two of these showers could have thunder, probably in the south inland from the coast.

    THE WEEKEND was looking more interesting on some earlier forecast runs, now it looks warm and rather dry under a weak ridge of high pressure, but this seems subject to more change so I'll just say, watch this space until we get a more definitive set of maps later today perhaps. I'm sure the general public will like warm, dry whereas the weather crew here will be rooting for thunderstorms. :D

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,920 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium

    The forecast continues very similar with a succession of weak troughs and ridges in a slack southwesterly flow pattern.

    Wednesday, 10 June, 2009

    TODAY will be mostly cloudy with showers and possibly a brief thundershower mainly confined to the southern half of Ireland. Some places could have a few hours of sunshine, especially the far north. Highs will be 14 to 16 C.

    TONIGHT will remain cloudy with a few more showers at first, tending to clear slowly from west to east around sunrise. Lows will be 7 to 9 C and there will be a chilly northerly breeze over eastern districts and the Irish Sea.

    THURSDAY will bring some longer intervals of sunshine, with just a slight risk of an isolated shower over the central parts of Ireland. Highs will be 17 or 18 except close to the south coast where it may be held to 14 C by sea breezes.

    FRIDAY will become partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers, and risk of a brief thundershower. Highs will be about 18 C.

    THE WEEKEND is looking fairly warm with at least some sunshine each day, and a low probability of showers, mainly in the southwest. Highs may reach 20 to 22 C in some inland sections.

    NEXT WEEK promises some unstable conditions with frontal systems developing and moving into this warmer air mass around late Monday and Tuesday, so this is when there may be some thunderstorm action (notice how this keeps moving back, as the models pick up on blocking over western Europe, but eventually this should break down and allow the fronts to develop).

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,920 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium

    Thursday, 11 June, 2009

    TODAY will be somewhat cloudy to start in northern and eastern districts, and there could be light showers in a few places. Sunshine will develop early in western and southern parts and spread to the east later, while the north stays partly cloudy. Highs will be around 16 or 17 C.

    TONIGHT will start out clear, and quite cool, with rural districts dropping to about 6 or 7 C by midnight or 0100h, cities closer to 10 C, but later in the night cloud will spread in and temperatures will be closer to 12 C by daybreak.

    FRIDAY will bring mostly cloudy skies, a few showers or periods of light rain, and the chance of a brief heavier thundershower. Highs will be 17 or 18 C.

    SATURDAY is looking cloudy in the west, partly cloudy further east, and there will be a threat of showers or even thundershowers in western districts; some eastern parts of the country may stay dry. Lows will be around 12 C and highs around 19 or 20 C.

    SUNDAY also looks partly cloudy and rather warm with a few more showers or thunderstorms mainly in western districts. Lows will be 10-12 C and highs around 19 to 21 C.

    MONDAY is looking cloudy with showers, and TUESDAY into WEDNESDAY could see some more organized thunderstorm development and gusty SW winds at times. Temperatures through this period should be near 20 C in the daytime and near 12 C overnight.

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,920 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium

    Friday, 12 June, 2009

    TODAY, light rain or drizzle at first in regions north of Dublin, then an interval with hazy and rather warm conditions mid-day in most regions, followed by some heavy showers with risk of a thundershower in the southwest around mid-day, these arriving further east by late afternoon. Highs generally 17 or 18 C.

    TONIGHT will see further showers with warm and humid conditions, lows of about 10 to 13 C.

    SATURDAY and SUNDAY will both be warm, humid with occasional showers, heavier in the western parts of Ireland, with some risk of thunderstorms. There may be some longer intervals of sunshine in the east, and highs both days should reach 21 or 22 C in some inland sections, 18 to 20 C more likely near the coasts.

    MONDAY will also be unsettled with heavy showers and risk of a thunderstorm, and highs near 19 or 20 C.

    TUESDAY may bring some longer dry intervals and some sunshine in places, followed by periods of rain later in the day and overnight, highs near 20 C.

    WEDNESDAY is looking warm, with thundery showers and strong SW breezes, highs near 21 C.

    LATER NEXT WEEK it should start to turn cooler with gusty W to NW winds, showers, and highs only 14-15 C by about Friday.

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,920 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium

    UPDATE _ Friday, 7:20 pm

    If you happen to be near Lough Derg, there are heavy showers and probably some thunder embedded, from their radar appearance, moving slowly northeast across that district. The rest of the evening should be dry in most of Ireland other than a few clusters of heavy showers in the west (to centre eventually), it doesn't look as though any of this activity will drift into the Dublin region for example. Seems that the chilly sea breeze has held firm today near the shoreline in eastern Ireland too.

    Tomorrow looks like a repeat performance in general, some residual showers or low cloud left over from tonight's dying showers, then a hazy and warm mid-day followed by more heavy showers and possible thunderstorms developing mostly over the western half of the country. Sorry that it's a little difficult to be very precise on any of this, one thing that is known is that whatever develops, will tend to move slowly northeast, the gradient winds expected tonight through to Sunday are mainly light southerly winds of 5-10 knots.

  • Registered Users Posts: 112 ✭✭paulhac

    Thanks M.T. for all your updates during the week. You mention Dublin there .I think it will be Monday before we see any sparks if at all
    Cheers Paul

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,920 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium

    Saturday, 13 June, 2009

    TODAY will start out rather cloudy in most areas, hazy sunshine in some western districts, and the odd shower possible this morning around Dublin, before hazy sunshine takes over for a while, and then more afternoon and evening heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms move into western districts from the Atlantic. Highs will range from 21 C in some central districts to about 17 C near most of the coastal sections.

    TONIGHT will become misty or foggy as the showers die out, and rather warm with lows only 11-14 C.

    SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy with more showers and thunderstorms developing, this time possibly more towards the eastern part of the country as well. Highs will be generally 18-20 C.

    MONDAY will bring frequent showers and the possibility of a heavy thundershower, lows near 13 C and highs near 17 C.

    TUESDAY will see some clearing and warm temperatures near 21 C.

    WEDNESDAY will be showery and warm with risk of a thunderstorm. Highs will be about 20 to 22 C.

    What has changed is the outlook for later in the week -- at this time, the computer models have scrubbed the cooling trend and are keeping things quite warm through Friday and next weekend. In fact it could turn even somewhat warmer by then.

    Have a fabulous weekend whatever the weather brings.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,685 ✭✭✭Mobhi1

    Thanks M.T. These forecasts are great. A bit more specific than most others. One of the first places I go now if I want a reliable forecast.

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,039 ✭✭✭force eleven

    Thanks MT. Certainly saw the thunderstorms today here, after a lovely first half to the day. More of the same tomorrow it seems and for part of next week, the hit and miss nature of storms make them infuriating to the observer though...:rolleyes:

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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,920 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium

    Thanks, I hope you won't be offended that I had to look up the location of Moate (and I found it too) although I guessed it was central from your comment. Just a quick update, radar certainly shows an area of very heavy and no doubt thundery rain near Thurles moving in the general direction of Tullamore and further northeast this evening, so if you're in that part of the country, expect about an inch of rain. At the moment, it looks as though Dublin and the southeast should remain dry at least until near midnight if not longer, as this heavier rain keeps tracking northeast towards Ulster and only the odd rogue shower seems likely further east, although they have come and gone a few times, but nothing substantial. Meanwhile to the west of the main band of rainfall it is likely to become misty and then locally foggy quite readily as humidity levels are high after earlier showers.