Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 04-02-2013 9:30am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 4 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for very strong winds (W or WNW 80-130 km/hr) combined with squally wintry showers and some outbreaks of heavy snow, these mainly in the north and west but possible at times in other parts of the country. Although already quite windy, the full alert will apply from about 1300h today in Donegal with slightly later onset times further east and south, and the alert may persist until mid-day Tuesday, with a brief interval of less severe conditions followed by a resumption in a second phase of the storm Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. ... The situation further ahead is more of a "watch" than an alert, as model guidance has once again diverged to several different outcomes, but these include some risks of snowfall and more severe cold in the time frame of Friday to well into the following week -- however, the outcome remains highly uncertain and none of those risks may actually materialize in Ireland (the chances are greater in Britain).

TODAY ... Windy and turning colder in stages, with showers or drizzly rain to mid-day in a strong to gale force westerly reaching 60-100 km/hr at first, temperatures steady 6-7 C during the morning, then slowly falling to about 3 or 4 C mid-day and afternoon, with later showers possibly becoming wintry especially in Connacht and West Ulster in a very blustery W to WNW wind reaching 80-130 km/hr by late afternoon. There could be some hail and thunder with a second cold front arriving in the late afternoon with snow beginning on hills in the north and west. Rainfall or equivalent about 3-7 mm for most, 7-12 mm possible in parts of Ulster and Connacht. This may include falls of 3-5 cm snow by end of daylight and hail elsewhere.

TONIGHT ... Very windy (WNW 80-130 km/hr) with blustery showers of sleet, hail and snow, and possibly some thunder, with temperatures not far from 1-2 C on average (except 3-5 C near Atlantic coasts).

TUESDAY ... Very windy and cold with mixed wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow (accumulating to 3-7 cm on some northern hills) with west to northwest gale force winds 80-120 km/hr, and temperatures steady in the 2-4 C range possibly dropping to 0-2 C where snow accumulates. The rain-snow line will rapidly fall to about 150m or lower and some of the passing squally showers could be thundery with large hail or snow. Blizzard-like conditions may develop in higher sections of the north and occasionally may appear almost anywhere as strong convective showers move rapidly across the country. The sun may come out briefly between these heavy showers. It will feel exceptionally cold in the wind and conditions may become severe for livestock in higher elevations especially. By afternoon and evening, a somewhat less severe interval with temperatures 4-6 C will turn most of the showers back to rain except on highest elevations, but the wind will continue very strong from the northwest. This feature will appear in the north first and Munster could see intervals of snow before it arrives there about sunset.

TUESDAY NIGHT ... Continued very windy with mixed wintry showers as temperatures begin to fall back to the 0-3 C range and the balance between rain and snow returns to about where it had been earlier ... further accumulations of snow on hills in the north and towards end of the night, possible streamers near the east coast and occasionally hitting land south of Dublin with mixed wintry showers, snow on hills. Winds by morning will be about NNW to NNE 60-100 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and very cold with passing showers of hail, sleet or snow, morning lows -1 to +1 C and afternoon highs 3-5 C but possibly colder over snow-covered areas. Not quite as windy as the previous day (NW 50-80 km/hr). There may be frosty and icy conditions by evening and overnight, especially in higher elevations of the east and north.

THURSDAY ... Breezy to windy (NW to N 40-70 km/hr) and continued rather cold with passing mixed wintry showers, morning lows -2 to +2 C and afternoon highs 5-8 C in west, 3-6 C east. Some further snow accumulations on higher ground mostly. It may feel quite a bit milder by afternoon in the western half of the country.

FRIDAY ... After morning lows close to freezing with isolated frost and some icy roads in higher parts of the north, there could be a brief interval of rain across the southwest as a weak rebound of milder air pushes back slightly, but this could set off mixed wintry precipitation elsewhere in variable winds, highs generally 3-5 C but possibly a bit milder in Kerry, Cork and Limerick into parts of Clare (5-8 C).

WEEKEND and FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Colder again with the possibility of some snow, sleet or rain in various regions as there appears to be a chance of a frontal boundary with low pressure sliding southeast, but the more uncertain aspect will be how much, if any, feed of colder air remains in place from the east to interact with the Atlantic moisture. One possible outcome is relatively mild with drizzle and fog, highs 6-8 C. Another equally plausible outcome is for rain in the southwest, sleet from about Mayo to Waterford and snow further east. A third possibility is that snow will dominate the mix with sleet only in the south coast and southwest regions. This situation will probably remain indefinite in forecasts until mid-week. Beyond that, all outcomes seem "on the table" but there continue to be signs of a westward push of very cold air that could reach at least the eastern half of the country at times, and possibly accompanied by some snow.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY through TUESDAY ... Very windy with temperatures gradually falling in the south and central regions, and cold throughout in Scotland although with some variations as milder air rotates around the deep low tracking close to the Shetlands by Tuesday afternoon. Scotland may see blizzard like conditions at times with westerly winds 90-140 km/hr. Mixed wintry showers are likely further south with winds WNW 80-120 km/hr. Temperatures will generally be in the 3-5 C range but could fall to 0-2 C in snow showers. Heavy falls of snow are likely on higher ground in all regions and hail could be widespread at lower elevations.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Britain will be very likely to see wintry conditions for several more days with heavy snow showers in eastern England and much of Scotland on strong northerly winds Wednesday, some areas of snow further west where streamers come inland from Irish Sea in NNW - NNE winds 60-100 km/hr, highs only 1-3 C, then in a general clearing trend but very cold, possibly some isolated heavy snowfalls as well as severe frosts to -7 C or lower, as the flow becomes increasing northerly to northeasterly. This severe cold could persist for quite some time. There will also be frequent snowfalls across northern France and most of western-central Europe during this cold spell, with travel disruptions likely to develop.

Forecasts for North America

A heavy snowfall will spread across Maine, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick with rain in Newfoundland as deepening low pressure moves due north into the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The pattern further west remains rather cold with a weak frontal wave moving east across Illinois and later Indiana and Ohio bringing 3-5 cm snowfalls in places. Further south, the dry and warmer air mass of the weekend is slowly clouding up with light rain developing here and there in an associated frontal wave in Texas; the two waves will combine offshore around Wednesday in the Atlantic to form another northeast-moving low. The southwest is also seeing an increase in cloud and some outbreaks of rain, and further north the weather is mostly cloudy with near normal temperatures and outbreaks of rain and mountain snow. The high arctic is seasonably cold (around -30 C) and a shallow remnant of the previous cold air mass is slowly modifying in place over the Canadian prairies and northern Ontario, temperatures are generally -15 to -10 C.

My local weather on Sunday was cloudy and somewhat foggy again, with periods of rain in the afternoon, and highs about 8 C.

There is an active thread discussing the current stormy weather potential that is sure to have all the latest details on the approaching wintry blast. I should emphasize that the worst of this blast will be felt in the north and west but it will be considerable elsewhere and in all cases the worst of it should be late today, overnight, and tomorrow morning, with slight easing from north to south around mid-day Tuesday.

M.T. Cranium · 05-02-2013 9:07am

UPDATE _ Tues 5 Feb _ 0800h
______________________________

Full forecast to follow around 0820, check back ... wanted to let early viewers know that there are no big changes in the forecast and all sorts of uncertainty about Friday to Monday which will take some time to describe. But for the immediate future, expect the current strong winds and wintry showers to continue for a few more hours with a milder trend sweeping across Ireland from north to south during the afternoon and evening, lasting 3-6 hours, followed by a renewed colder and wintry trend by Wednesday early morning.

Full forecast coming along in a few minutes. -- MTC

M.T. Cranium · 05-02-2013 9:49am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 5 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

Situation report: The ALERT from yesterday is maintained for strong winds and wintry showers until mid-day and continued for strong winds until late tonight. There may be a second round of snowfall later tonight, after a brief spell of somewhat milder weather in a warm sector rotating around the low which is moving down the east coast of Britain towards Holland and Belgium by morning. This will swing the wind directions around almost to due northerly by morning and there could be a brief time of NNE winds in Wicklow that would bring Irish Sea streamers of mixed wintry showers onto land. The air mass behind the storm is moderately cold and may prove to have more resistance to the Atlantic in some eastern regions when the Atlantic comes calling around Thursday night into Friday. Then model uncertainty becomes the dominant theme for the weekend and Monday, with several plausible solutions, ranging from a return to milder weather in general, to a wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow, to a full-on snowfall (for the east relatively severe). That naturally creates further uncertainty about how cold, if at all, next week will then become. I will give some percentage estimates of the chances of various outcomes because, without the time machine working, I have to guess just like you, which model solution will work out and all I can add to the mix is a bit of research insight and my hunches about the model performances in this situation.

TODAY ... Very windy and cold with mixed wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow (accumulating to 3-7 cm on some northern hills) with west to northwest gale force winds 80-120 km/hr, and temperatures steady in the 2-4 C range until afternoon, possibly dropping to 0-2 C where snow accumulates. Some wintry showers could be thundery with large hail or snow. Blizzard-like conditions may develop in higher sections of the north and occasionally may appear almost anywhere as strong convective showers move rapidly across the country. The sun may come out briefly between these heavy showers. It will feel exceptionally cold in the wind and conditions may become severe for livestock in higher elevations especially. By afternoon and evening, a somewhat less severe and milder interval will develop (earlier in Connacht and Ulster than in Munster or South Leinster) with temperatures 4-6 C and this will turn most of the showers back to rain except on highest elevations, but the wind will continue very strong from the northwest. Watch for updates in case the warm front moving south activates a band of snowfall in the southern inland regions, there is some chance of a 3-5 cm burst of snow before milder air arrives.

TUESDAY NIGHT ... Continued very windy with mixed wintry showers as temperatures begin to fall back to the 0-3 C range and the balance between rain and snow returns to about where it had been earlier ... further accumulations of snow on hills in the north and towards end of the night, possible streamers near the east coast and occasionally hitting land south of Dublin with mixed wintry showers, snow on hills. Winds by morning will be about NNW to NNE 60-100 km/hr. Roads may become icy in many regions before the morning commute time (slush hour?).

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and very cold with some sunshine in places but passing showers of hail, sleet or snow, morning lows -1 to +1 C and afternoon highs 3-5 C but possibly colder over snow-covered areas. Not quite as windy as the previous day (NNW 50-80 km/hr). There may be frosty and icy conditions by evening and overnight, especially in higher elevations of the east and north.

THURSDAY ... Breezy to windy (NW to N 40-70 km/hr) and continued rather cold with passing mixed wintry showers, morning lows -2 to +2 C and afternoon highs 5-8 C in west, 3-6 C east. Some further snow accumulations on higher ground mostly. It may feel quite a bit milder by afternoon in the western half of the country. There is some risk of sleet or snow ahead of a band of rain trying to move east into the western coastal counties, as colder air will remain banked up over the Irish Sea and Britain. Some models suggest it will also be present from about Tyrone to Waterford and east.

FRIDAY ... After morning lows close to freezing with isolated frost and some icy roads in higher parts of the north, there could be a brief interval of rain across the southwest as a weak rebound of milder air pushes back slightly, but this could set off mixed wintry precipitation elsewhere in variable winds, highs generally 3-5 C but possibly a bit milder in Kerry, Cork and Limerick into parts of Clare (5-8 C) and some chance of much milder conditions 7-11 C in coastal west and southwest.

WEEKEND and FURTHER OUTLOOK ... One plausible outcome will be a simple return to milder weather for Ireland and western Scotland with colder air rather weak and shallow, confined to southeast England mainly. In that scenario, highs would be 7-10 C in Ireland and there might be outbreaks of light rain. This one gets a 30% probability rating (from me, probably 80% from some). ... Another plausible outcome is a "slider" low that begins when the warm fronts on Friday run into so much resistance that they can't push any further east than central Ireland, and low pressure slides southeast, bringing a wintry mix to the east and a cold rain to the west. In that scenario, the highs would be 5-8 C west, 2-5 C east and some snow could accumulate on hills. I rate this one around 50% likely. ... Then there is a third outcome, strongly featured on the UK model this morning, where the slider merges with another low over France and there is plenty of cold air left over to work up a snowfall event Sunday or Monday, with significant accumulations. I tend to think this is very likely for southern England over the weekend and less likely but possible for Ireland, so I am rating this one 20% possible. Now there might be other variations so these three should be treated as leading rather than only possible outcomes.

All of that should be a massive tip-off that the forecast beyond Monday is so uncertain that it is probably just best to say any outcome remains on the table and it could be mild, so-so or quite cold, depending on which air mass wins this battleground scenario, or if the battleground continues to be active, which is quite plausible. Most models do show hints of a much colder interval becoming almost inevitable given the mix of signals. I tend to think this is most likely next week and perhaps lasting into the following week, but it may come and go in that time frame, as the Atlantic, while weakened, seems to be staggering around still.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Very windy with temperatures gradually falling in the south and central regions, but turning milder now in western Scotland as milder air rotates around the deep low tracking close to the Shetlands by mid-day and then down the east coast of Scotland (then England tonight). Central regions of Britain may see blizzard like conditions at times with westerly winds 80-120 km/hr. Mixed wintry showers are likely across the south with winds WNW 80-120 km/hr. Temperatures will generally be in the 2-4 C range (5-7 C briefly in western Scotland) but could fall to 0-2 C in snow showers in Wales and the Midlands especially. Heavy falls of snow are likely on higher ground in all regions and hail could be widespread at lower elevations.

TONIGHT ... The milder sector will tend to fade after it crosses Ireland and Wales, and will be just a slight upturn in temperatures for southern England as winds continue to veer from WNW towards NNE at 50-90 km/hr ... a brief interval of mostly rain showers in the evening will turn back to mixed wintry showers then mostly snow towards morning and there could be near-blizzard conditions in eastern England by Wednesday morning. Overnight lows 1-3 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Some sunshine west, strong NE to N winds, heavy snow squalls and blowing snow east, with sunny intervals here and there, very cold, temperatures steady 0-3 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Britain will be very likely to see wintry conditions for several more days with heavy snow showers in eastern England and much of Scotland on strong northerly winds Wednesday, some areas of snow further west where streamers come inland from Irish Sea in NNW - NNE winds 60-100 km/hr, highs only 1-3 C, then in a general clearing trend but very cold, possibly some isolated heavy snowfalls as well as severe frosts to -7 C or lower, as the flow becomes increasing northerly to northeasterly. This severe cold could persist for quite some time. There will also be frequent snowfalls across northern France and most of western-central Europe during this cold spell, with travel disruptions likely to develop. There are increasingly reliable signs of a snowfall event in southern England and parts of eastern England and Scotland on the weekend into Monday. Highs could be -2 C in the inland central regions by Sunday-Monday. This cold spell may relent slightly then reload later in the week.

Forecasts for North America

The pattern is gradually relaxing and the depth of cold air is shallower every day across the eastern U.S. and Great Lakes. This is allowing temperatures to drift up towards more normal values close to 2 C by day. Yesterday's approaching low has moved past most of the Maritime provinces now and is heading up the Labrador coast to die west of Greenland, but it will spin off a weak frontal wave on the eastern side of Greenland and that could be the genesis of any "slider" for the weekend in Ireland. Meanwhile, western and central regions of North America are turning milder in stages across northern states and western Canada, and turning even warmer than before in the south, in a generally settled pattern with light snow along warm fronts in SK and ND.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy and mild with a high near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 06-02-2013 8:59am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 6 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy and rather cold with sunshine fading behind increasing cloud and somewhat isolated wintry showers, more frequent in the west especially Mayo and west Galway, Clare and Kerry. There may be an incursion of streamers from the central Irish Sea into parts of Wicklow and Wexford by mid-day with potential for snow or hail. Some inland eastern locations may remain mostly sunny until mid-afternoon. Highs 4-7 C mildest south coast and coldest in Ulster and higher portions of Connacht. Winds NNW 40-70 km/hr with some higher gusts in exposed locations (possibly NNE for a time in Wicklow and Wexford).

TONIGHT ... Clear at first, frosty with icy roads developing shortly after sunset. Coldest temperatures may be around midnight to 0300h as cloud followed by sleet may move into western regions (all rain at lower elevations near the coast). Lows may reach -4 C inland and east, -1 C west but rising to about +3 C in the rain. Some ice fog may develop in eastern and central counties.

THURSDAY ... Rain will move steadily east and could turn to sleet or even snow over some higher parts of Connacht and Ulster, then a rain-snow mix is possible by late afternoon in Leinster. Winds will become less blustery for a time and it could become rather foggy. Rather cold in most places with highs about 4-7 C, but possibly as mild as 10 C in the coastal southwest, 8 C in coastal northwest to about Donegal Bay. This situation has "surprise snowfall" potential and may require updates.

FRIDAY ... The early morning will see more frost and ice developing as the rain, sleet or wet snow end and move away to the southeast. Lows will be about -2 C to +3 C in coastal west. Then the day will become blustery and rather cold in a moderate northwesterly with further showers developing, some of them wintry in higher parts of the north. Highs 4-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Here we have a very uncertain situation as a frontal wave develops to the northwest and drops down across central counties later in the day. The most likely outcome is a dry start followed by cold rain that could mix with snow or sleet in the north and east. Lows near -3 C and highs about 3-5 C east, 5-9 C west.

SUNDAY ... The precipitation may end before mid-day but could also turn to snow in some northern and eastern regions, while remaining sleet or rain in the south and west. Highs about 5 C on average.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some guidance shows a milder trend but other models want to bring colder air to the Irish Sea and some distance into Ireland at times. This may mean further forecasting headaches and even the slight chance of a really wintry pattern developing later this month (for Ireland, I think it will be really wintry from today on in parts of Britain and nearby continent).

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Windy and cold with mixed wintry showers becoming mainly snow at times in eastern England, sunshine more widespread elsewhere, but some snow showers in Wales and southwest England courtesy of the Irish Sea. The highs will be 3-6 C and winds NNW (western regions) to NNE (eastern regions) at about 50-90 km/hr with quite a strong wind-chill effect in exposed areas.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, very cold, isolated wintry showers. Lows about -2 to -6 C coldest inland east.

THURSDAY to SATURDAY ... Generally quite cold and sometimes cloudy but patchy snow (sleet southwest) at times, ice fog possible. Lows near -6 C or colder, highs 2-4 C at best.

SUNDAY-MONDAY ... Snow appears likely in the central and northeastern regions, and could change to sleet or rain across parts of the south, then back to snow. Highs generally 2-4 C and lows around -3 C to -10 C in any clear spots further north.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There is a high risk of severe wintry conditions spreading in from the east at any point especially mid-week and through the second half of February.

Forecasts for North America

The general theme is warm across the south and seasonably cold across the northern half of the U.S. with light snow in a few places between Chicago and New York City but few places seeing more than 3 cm. Lake effect is also mainly subdued now as winds have dropped off. A weak secondary low has formed in the wake of the earlier strong low in eastern Canada and that may spread snow across parts of Newfoundland before it moves towards Greenland. The most significant weather story is potentially the outcome of low pressure now developing in Montana and heading for Lake Michigan, pulling in some Gulf moisture that will spread showers into east Texas today where temperatures are near 26 C. That storm system will not be very active in the plains states today (milder air will move a bit further north) with 3-5 cm snowfalls in parts of the upper Midwest, but as the low reaches the east coast late tomorrow into Friday, it could explode into a major snowstorm for New York City and Boston, with 30-50 cm snowfalls possible on strong east to northeast winds (this will not be a "nor'easter" as it is coming from the continent rather than up the eastern seaboard, but some will be calling it that anyway).

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy, mild with periods of rain, and some heavy bursts late afternoon, highs near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 07-02-2013 8:25am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 7 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for possible snow or sleet mainly in higher elevations of eastern counties this afternoon and evening, visibility may be reduced by fog in lower elevations later today ... ADVANCE ALERT (watch situation) for possible snowfall Sunday-Monday as models now indicate a better chance of cold air mixing into a moist frontal system over eastern counties -- confidence about 50-60 per cent at this time.

TODAY ... Rain will move steadily east and could turn to sleet or even snow over some higher parts of Connacht and Ulster, then a rain-snow mix is possible by late afternoon in Leinster with snow more likely above 300m in the Dublin and Wicklow mountains. Winds will be rather light ahead of a windshift line arriving later and moderate NW winds will affect mainly coastal west and southwest, as other regions could then become rather foggy during and after the rain or sleet. Rather cold in most places with highs about 4-7 C, but possibly as mild as 10 C in the coastal southwest, 8 C in coastal northwest to about Donegal Bay. Rain or equivalent about 7-12 mm on average.

TONIGHT ... Rain or sleet ending, foggy east and north, becoming quite windy in west (NW 50-80 km/hr) and rather cold with lows -1 to +3 C east, 2-6 C west.

FRIDAY ... The early morning will see more frost and ice developing as the rain, sleet or wet snow end and move away to the southeast. Then the day will become blustery and rather cold in a moderate northwesterly with further showers developing, some of them wintry in higher parts of the north. Highs 4-7 C.

SATURDAY ... The situation remains uncertain, as a frontal wave develops to the northwest and drops down across central counties later in the day. The most likely outcome is a dry start followed by cold rain that could mix with snow or sleet in the north and east. Lows near -3 C and highs about 3-5 C east, 5-9 C west. There could be some rather heavy falls of sleety rain west-central.

SUNDAY ... The latest guidance indicates that precipitation may start as rain but could turn to snow in some northern and eastern regions, while remaining sleet or rain in the south and west. Highs about 2-4 C on average in north and east, to about 5-8 C in south and west. There is some chance of accumulating snow and a drop in temperature late in the day to near or below freezing with moderate to strong east winds and Irish Sea snow streamers, this possibility will be re-assessed in an update around 7-8 p.m. from later guidance.

MONDAY ... Although this is not a high confidence forecast, the model consensus has begun to suggest snow in some regions, sleet and rain further west, in a cold east to northeast wind flow and temperatures in the 1-3 C range. The actual outcome might be even colder, or rain might dominate in a slightly milder outcome, but the trend in forecast models is definitely towards a colder solution at this time.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... I have a strong feeling that a colder outcome will develop as some of the model guidance appears to under-estimate the potential "locking" effect of the link-up between the milder Azores high and the cold Scandinavian high that is showing up now on forecast charts. In the past, there were frequently situations where cold air won these battleground situations, so we'll have to see if this will prove to be the case this time around. Another wild card is a very strong storm system now expected to develop off the east coast of North America on the weekend. That could run into this pattern and cause its own unforeseen results, and frankly I have very little confidence in the model output beyond Monday at this stage (and only moderate confidence in the output beyond tomorrow).

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Some sunny intervals and cold, but becoming mainly cloudy with outbreaks of sleet or snow, cold rain in southwest later, turning to snow on higher ground in Wales and southwest England. Highs generally 2-5 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain, sleet or snow in western regions, lows 1-3 C, but some clear intervals further east with ice fog and lows -5 to -2 C.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... Generally quite cold and sometimes cloudy but patchy snow (sleet southwest) at times, ice fog possible. Lows near -6 C or colder, highs 2-4 C at best.

SUNDAY-MONDAY ... Snow appears likely in the central and northeastern regions, and could change to sleet or rain across parts of the south, then back to snow. Highs generally 2-4 C and lows around -3 C to -10 C in any clear spots further north. Some heavy snowfalls could develop in the Midlands, Wales and perhaps the southeast, with 20-30 cm possible. The rain-snow line may advance some distance north then retreat back to the south coast during this period.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There is a high risk of severe wintry conditions spreading in from the east at any point especially mid-week and through the second half of February.

Forecasts for North America

A frontal wave in Iowa will move across the lower Great Lakes today and begin to merge with another weak system that is developing in the southeast states. Most of the precipitation will be rain or sleet with 3-5 cm snowfalls in the upper Midwest and parts of the Great Lakes region. New England and the inland northeast will be clear to partly cloudy and cold, and further north it will be very cold under strong high pressure. These two systems will merge into a powerful low near Long Island on Friday night and this will bring 30-60 cm snowfalls (possibly even more in places) to New England, 10-30 cm to NYC, Long Island and New Jersey. The storm will have minimal impact south of about Atlantic City NJ to Baltimore MD, it will stay above freezing in the mid-Atlantic states and it should remain quite mild across the southeast and south central states. The west remains largely mild and dry with outbreaks of rain on the coast. The Canadian prairies are turning a bit milder now that the cold high has begun to reposition north of Lake Superior. Snow may turn to freezing drizzle in parts of Alberta and Montana as a warm front edges further east into SK-ND. ... My local weather on Wednesday was mild with periods of rain and highs near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 07-02-2013 8:26am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 7 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for possible snow or sleet mainly in higher elevations of eastern counties this afternoon and evening, visibility may be reduced by fog in lower elevations later today ... ADVANCE ALERT (watch situation) for possible snowfall Sunday-Monday as models now indicate a better chance of cold air mixing into a moist frontal system over eastern counties -- confidence about 50-60 per cent at this time.

TODAY ... Rain will move steadily east and could turn to sleet or even snow over some higher parts of Connacht and Ulster, then a rain-snow mix is possible by late afternoon in Leinster with snow more likely above 300m in the Dublin and Wicklow mountains. Winds will be rather light ahead of a windshift line arriving later and moderate NW winds will affect mainly coastal west and southwest, as other regions could then become rather foggy during and after the rain or sleet. Rather cold in most places with highs about 4-7 C, but possibly as mild as 10 C in the coastal southwest, 8 C in coastal northwest to about Donegal Bay. Rain or equivalent about 7-12 mm on average.

TONIGHT ... Rain or sleet ending, foggy east and north, becoming quite windy in west (NW 50-80 km/hr) and rather cold with lows -1 to +3 C east, 2-6 C west.

FRIDAY ... The early morning will see more frost and ice developing as the rain, sleet or wet snow end and move away to the southeast. Then the day will become blustery and rather cold in a moderate northwesterly with further showers developing, some of them wintry in higher parts of the north. Highs 4-7 C.

SATURDAY ... The situation remains uncertain, as a frontal wave develops to the northwest and drops down across central counties later in the day. The most likely outcome is a dry start followed by cold rain that could mix with snow or sleet in the north and east. Lows near -3 C and highs about 3-5 C east, 5-9 C west. There could be some rather heavy falls of sleety rain west-central.

SUNDAY ... The latest guidance indicates that precipitation may start as rain but could turn to snow in some northern and eastern regions, while remaining sleet or rain in the south and west. Highs about 2-4 C on average in north and east, to about 5-8 C in south and west. There is some chance of accumulating snow and a drop in temperature late in the day to near or below freezing with moderate to strong east winds and Irish Sea snow streamers, this possibility will be re-assessed in an update around 7-8 p.m. from later guidance.

MONDAY ... Although this is not a high confidence forecast, the model consensus has begun to suggest snow in some regions, sleet and rain further west, in a cold east to northeast wind flow and temperatures in the 1-3 C range. The actual outcome might be even colder, or rain might dominate in a slightly milder outcome, but the trend in forecast models is definitely towards a colder solution at this time.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... I have a strong feeling that a colder outcome will develop as some of the model guidance appears to under-estimate the potential "locking" effect of the link-up between the milder Azores high and the cold Scandinavian high that is showing up now on forecast charts. In the past, there were frequently situations where cold air won these battleground situations, so we'll have to see if this will prove to be the case this time around. Another wild card is a very strong storm system now expected to develop off the east coast of North America on the weekend. That could run into this pattern and cause its own unforeseen results, and frankly I have very little confidence in the model output beyond Monday at this stage (and only moderate confidence in the output beyond tomorrow).

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Some sunny intervals and cold, but becoming mainly cloudy with outbreaks of sleet or snow, cold rain in southwest later, turning to snow on higher ground in Wales and southwest England. Highs generally 2-5 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain, sleet or snow in western regions, lows 1-3 C, but some clear intervals further east with ice fog and lows -5 to -2 C.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... Generally quite cold and sometimes cloudy but patchy snow (sleet southwest) at times, ice fog possible. Lows near -6 C or colder, highs 2-4 C at best.

SUNDAY-MONDAY ... Snow appears likely in the central and northeastern regions, and could change to sleet or rain across parts of the south, then back to snow. Highs generally 2-4 C and lows around -3 C to -10 C in any clear spots further north. Some heavy snowfalls could develop in the Midlands, Wales and perhaps the southeast, with 20-30 cm possible. The rain-snow line may advance some distance north then retreat back to the south coast during this period.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There is a high risk of severe wintry conditions spreading in from the east at any point especially mid-week and through the second half of February.

Forecasts for North America

A frontal wave in Iowa will move across the lower Great Lakes today and begin to merge with another weak system that is developing in the southeast states. Most of the precipitation will be rain or sleet with 3-5 cm snowfalls in the upper Midwest and parts of the Great Lakes region. New England and the inland northeast will be clear to partly cloudy and cold, and further north it will be very cold under strong high pressure. These two systems will merge into a powerful low near Long Island on Friday night and this will bring 30-60 cm snowfalls (possibly even more in places) to New England, 10-30 cm to NYC, Long Island and New Jersey. The storm will have minimal impact south of about Atlantic City NJ to Baltimore MD, it will stay above freezing in the mid-Atlantic states and it should remain quite mild across the southeast and south central states. The west remains largely mild and dry with outbreaks of rain on the coast. The Canadian prairies are turning a bit milder now that the cold high has begun to reposition north of Lake Superior. Snow may turn to freezing drizzle in parts of Alberta and Montana as a warm front edges further east into SK-ND. ... My local weather on Wednesday was mild with periods of rain and highs near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 07-02-2013 8:50pm

Looks like the forecast got posted twice, not sure how that happened, maybe there is another MTC in an alternate universe. Anyway, here's an update on the potential for any snow in the Sunday-Monday-Tuesday time frame.

UPDATE _ Thursday 7 February 2013 _ 8 p.m.
____________________________________________

Model consensus today has been in favour of slightly colder solutions to the pattern developing over Ireland later this weekend, and this raises somewhat the chances that cold rain or sleet will change over to snow in some places on Sunday afternoon or evening, and continue to mix in as snow at times on Monday. There is also a chance of cold air crossing the Irish Sea to set off snow streamers on Tuesday.

These chances have not changed dramatically enough for an advance alert yet, but one will be issued tomorrow morning if confidence levels improve on snowfall. In any case, the snow would be mainly confined to higher portions of Leinster, east Munster, and possibly Ulster and inland Connacht. The guidance is still not quite robust enough to guarantee snow near sea level, but the most likely elevation from today's guidance is down to about 150m on average which gets snow into the forecasts for quite a few people reading this, and of course that's only an approximate dividing line, snow could fall lower down for a time.

Meanwhile, the northeast U.S. and New England in particular are preparing for the onslaught of a major winter storm tomorrow and Saturday; snowfall forecasts of 50 to 100 cm are being discussed for southern New England, and northeast winds gusting over 130 km/hr along the coast, a true blizzard and oddly coming 35 years after the epic 1978 blizzard. The two storms had one thing in common -- a new moon timed close to the event, raising high tide levels in storm surge conditions.

M.T. Cranium · 07-02-2013 8:50pm

Looks like the forecast got posted twice, not sure how that happened, maybe there is another MTC in an alternate universe. Anyway, here's an update on the potential for any snow in the Sunday-Monday-Tuesday time frame.

UPDATE _ Thursday 7 February 2013 _ 8 p.m.
____________________________________________

Model consensus today has been in favour of slightly colder solutions to the pattern developing over Ireland later this weekend, and this raises somewhat the chances that cold rain or sleet will change over to snow in some places on Sunday afternoon or evening, and continue to mix in as snow at times on Monday. There is also a chance of cold air crossing the Irish Sea to set off snow streamers on Tuesday.

These chances have not changed dramatically enough for an advance alert yet, but one will be issued tomorrow morning if confidence levels improve on snowfall. In any case, the snow would be mainly confined to higher portions of Leinster, east Munster, and possibly Ulster and inland Connacht. The guidance is still not quite robust enough to guarantee snow near sea level, but the most likely elevation from today's guidance is down to about 150m on average which gets snow into the forecasts for quite a few people reading this, and of course that's only an approximate dividing line, snow could fall lower down for a time.

Meanwhile, the northeast U.S. and New England in particular are preparing for the onslaught of a major winter storm tomorrow and Saturday; snowfall forecasts of 50 to 100 cm are being discussed for southern New England, and northeast winds gusting over 130 km/hr along the coast, a true blizzard and oddly coming 35 years after the epic 1978 blizzard. The two storms had one thing in common -- a new moon timed close to the event, raising high tide levels in storm surge conditions.

M.T. Cranium · 08-02-2013 8:35am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 8 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for icy roads in some parts of inland north and east later tonight ... ADVANCE ALERT (watch situation) for possible snowfall Sunday-Monday as models now indicate a better chance of cold air mixing into a moist frontal system over eastern counties -- confidence about 60-80 per cent at this time.

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, rather windy (NW 40-70 km/hr) with scattered showers or drizzle but becoming mostly dry with longer sunny intervals developing this afternoon. Highs 6-10 C mildest in southwest.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy to clear, some fog patches, icy roads developing in some inland eastern and northern counties, lows -2 to +3 C.

SATURDAY ... The day should start out dry if cloudy, then by afternoon or evening, rain that could begin to mix with snow or sleet in the north and east by evening. Highs about 4-6 C east, 7-9 C west. There could be some rather heavy falls (15-25 mm) of sleety rain west-central.

SUNDAY ... Overnight and morning precipitation may start as rain but could turn to snow in some northern and eastern regions, while remaining sleet or rain in the south and west. Morning lows about 1-3 C, then highs about 2-4 C on average in north and east, to about 5-8 C in south and west. The chance of snow increases later in the day at elevations above 150m in the east.

MONDAY ... Intervals of rain, sleet or snow with the better chance for wintry precipitation on higher ground in east and north. Cold in most regions, highs about 2-4 C east, 4-7 C west. There could even be some heavy falls of snow on hills in eastern counties.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The leading European model is trending cold and dry most of the week, with slight risk of isolated snow streamers on Tuesday in eastern counties. Some other guidance is trending milder in the second half of the week but with potential reload of the colder weather later on. The balance suggests below normal temperatures much of the time with highs generally in the 3-6 C range and lows -4 to -1 C but it could be a bit colder than that especially if any snow cover were to develop. Rain later in the week in western counties is also a possibility.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Generally quite cold and mostly cloudy with patchy wintry showers including some of snow (sleet southwest) at times, highs 3-6 C.

TONIGHT ... Cold with widespread ice fog possible. Lows near -4 C or colder,

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated wintry showers, some rain or sleet developing in southwest later, highs 2-4 C at best.

SUNDAY-MONDAY ... Snow appears likely in the central and northeastern regions, and could change to sleet or rain across parts of the south, then back to snow. Highs generally 2-4 C and lows around -3 C to -10 C in any clear spots further north. Some heavy snowfalls could develop in the Midlands, Wales and perhaps the southeast, with 20-30 cm possible. The rain-snow line may advance some distance north then retreat back to the south coast during this period.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There is a high risk of severe wintry conditions spreading in from the east at any point especially mid-week and through the second half of February. The current indications favour a cold, dry week with lows generally -9 to -5 C and highs -2 to +3 C. Ice fog may be persistent in some central regions. Sunshine could be fairly frequent in western regions, and wintry showers or snow most likely (after Monday's snowfall ends) in the east.

Forecasts for North America

A frontal wave now in northern Ohio will move across the lower Great Lakes and New York state today and begin to merge with another low that is moving northeast across Virginia early today, with outbreaks of rain or drizzle across much of the east-central U.S., and snow across the lower Great Lakes. New England and the inland northeast will start out clear to partly cloudy and cold, while further north it will be very cold under strong high pressure. These two systems will merge into a powerful low near Long Island about midnight and this will bring 30-60 cm snowfalls (possibly as much as 80 cm in places) to New England, 15-40 cm to metro NYC, Long Island and New Jersey. The storm will have minimal snow impact south of about Atlantic City NJ to Baltimore MD, it will stay above freezing in the mid-Atlantic states with locally heavy rainfalls 20-50 mm, and it should remain quite mild across the southeast and south central states, although cloudy in many places (near 15 C to 22 C Gulf coast). The west remains largely mild and dry with outbreaks of rain on the coast. The Canadian prairies are turning milder from west to east now that the cold high has moved north of Lake Superior and into central Quebec. Snow may turn to freezing drizzle in parts of SK-ND.

My local weather on Thursday was colder but pleasant due to some rather rare (recently) sunny intervals, towering cumulus and virga but little if any precipitation -- had any fallen, it would have most likely been hail as highs were about 6-7 C. Finally a good view of snow cover on the local hills, and the snow line appears to be about 400m.

Watch for updates if there is any definitive change in the outlook for Sunday-Monday, but I'm rather expecting a lack of forecast clarity there until the system actually begins to develop on Saturday. The track is key, the further west it drops southeastward, the more likely snow would be eventually. The range of suggested tracks at present is basically the width of Ireland from west to east. Another factor of some importance will be how far south the low centre comes to rest for about 24 hours -- if this is too far south, moisture may not reach eastern Ireland at the coldest time of this scenario, but if too far north, the precipitation might stay all rain due to lack of cold air. The best location for the low in terms of bringing snow potential seems to be the western approaches to the Channel.

M.T. Cranium · 09-02-2013 8:49am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 9 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for scattered outbreaks of heavy rainfall later today, tonight and Sunday, some amounts in the 25-40 mm range, local spot flooding could result, mostly in central counties although the axis of heavier rain could drift west later in the period ... ADVANCE ALERT for possible snow and icy roads returning briefly to eastern and northern counties around Sunday night, Monday and Tuesday. Confidence on this is moderate at best as model guidance remains both scattered and somewhat indefinite, but higher parts of the east are favoured to see these conditions.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain mostly for eastern half of the country at first, this becoming more showery for a while mid-day, when some sunny intervals could develop ... rather mild for most regions, highs about 7-9 C east and 9-11 C west. There could be some rather heavy falls (15-25 mm) of rain west-central and inland east to southeast, later afternoon into the overnight period.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming more widespread, some heavy falls possible with spot flooding, lows 4-7 C. Rainfalls of 15-30 mm in places.

SUNDAY ... Rain at times, but becoming steadily colder in eastern and northern portions of Ireland, with some risk of the rain changing to sleet and then (at least on higher terrain) snow by evening. Winds becoming northeast at about 30-50 km/hr, highs in the morning about 6-8 C but temperatures steady in the west, falling slowly in the east and parts of Ulster, to reach 2-4 C later and into the overnight hours.

MONDAY ... Rain in parts of the west becoming more showery, sleet central and sleet-snow mix possible east, highs will range from about 5-8 C southwest to 2-4 C east and northeast. There is some slight risk of accumulating snows at relatively low elevations, but icy roads should be confined to higher parts of Leinster and inland Ulster, especially during overnight hours.

TUESDAY ... Brighter but cold, with isolated snow or hail streamers possible in a moderate east to northeast wind, morning frosts and lows to -3 C, highs about 4-7 C west, 1-4 C east.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... With rather low confidence, the model consensus seems to be towards a milder interval mid-week and possibly back to rather cold weather late in the week. There is probably some chance that the earlier cold spell will intensify and hold back this milder weather, so we will keep monitoring this situation.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Variable cloud, isolated wintry showers, some rain or sleet developing in southwest later, highs 2-4 C at best, except 5-8 C parts of Wales and southwest.

TONIGHT ... Rain in parts of west, sleet or snow developing inland especially north of London, lows about -1 to +3 C.

SUNDAY-MONDAY ... Snow appears likely in the central and northeastern regions, and could change to sleet or rain across parts of the south, then back to snow. Highs generally 2-4 C and lows around -3 C to -10 C in any clear spots further north. Some heavy snowfalls could develop in the Midlands, Wales and perhaps the southeast, with 20-30 cm possible. The rain-snow line may advance some distance north then retreat back to the south coast during this period.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There is a high risk of severe wintry conditions spreading in from the east at any point especially mid-week and through the second half of February. The current indications favour a cold, dry week with lows generally -9 to -5 C and highs -2 to +3 C. Ice fog may be persistent in some central regions. Sunshine could be fairly frequent in western regions, and wintry showers or snow most likely (after Monday's snowfall ends) in the east. Milder weather could spread back into Scotland and parts of northwest England, Wales mid-week, but the colder regime could try to hold on under a weak ridge of high pressure in the southeast.

Forecasts for North America

A severe blizzard-like snowstorm will continue most of the day in New England with snowfalls (already 20-40 cm on the ground) reaching 40-80 cm with severe blowing and drifting in N-NE winds reaching 100-150 km/hr in some open areas. Temperatures are generally near -10 C with wind chills of -30 C. This storm will hit eastern Canada later today with somewhat less severe conditions as the storm weakens slightly during the second half of the day, but winds still 80-120 km/hr and snowfalls 20-40 cm.

Further west (NYC, NY state, PA) less severe snow ending mid-day, cloudy and cold in moderate to strong NW winds. Great Lakes clearing gradually with localized snow squalls in NW winds, Midwest clear and turning a bit milder with highs 4-7 C. Southern and central plains states mild with rain developing in a southerly flow, highs 10-15 C. Further north, some snow or freezing drizzle, shallow cold air mass becoming foggy over snow cover. Mild further west with weak frontal systems, some sunshine here and there.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy and mild with highs 8-10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 10-02-2013 8:19am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Astronomy note: New moon today around sunrise at 07:21h.

Sunday, 10 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

[ALERT for scattered outbreaks of heavy rainfall today, tonight and Monday, some further amounts in the 25-40 mm range, local spot flooding could result, mostly in east-central counties although the axis of heavier rain could drift west later in the period ... ADVANCE ALERT for possible snow and icy roads returning briefly to eastern Ulster and higher parts of Leinster around Monday and Tuesday. Rain could turn to sleet at lower elevations in eastern and northern counties by Monday night.

TODAY ... Rain at times, becoming slightly colder in eastern and northern portions of Ireland, with some risk of the rain changing to sleet and then (at least on higher terrain) snow by evening. Winds becoming northeast at about 30-50 km/hr, highs in the morning about 6-8 C (to near 10 C in southwest) but with temperatures then steady in the west, while falling slowly in the east and parts of Ulster, reaching 2-4 C later and into the overnight hours there. Some rainfalls of 15-30 mm, spot flooding possible.

TONIGHT ... Generally colder with rain becoming sleety in parts of east and north, continuing rather heavy central and southern counties, some further rainfalls of about 10-20 mm. Snow may accumulate on higher slopes in Ulster and Leinster. Lows generally 2-5 C.

MONDAY ... Rain in parts of the west becoming more showery, sleet central and sleet-snow mix possible east, highs will range from about 5-8 C southwest to 2-4 C east and northeast. There is some slight risk of accumulating snows at relatively low elevations, but icy roads should be confined to higher parts of Leinster and inland Ulster, especially during overnight hours.

TUESDAY ... Brighter intervals for some parts of the east but cold, with isolated snow or hail streamers possible in a moderate east to northeast wind, morning frosts and lows to -3 C, highs about 1-4 C ... remaining cloudy with drizzle, fog or light rain in parts of west, lows near 2 C and highs near 6 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Possible frosts as skies clear overnight, then increasing cloud, possibly some sleet turning to rain, lows near -2 C and highs near 5 or 6 C. Some chance of snow if the oncoming remnants of the U.S. storm fail to push the frontal boundary back to the east.

THURSDAY ... Model guidance for late in the week splits into two camps, one is dry with light winds or a slight easterly flow, with some clearing and rather cold especially east-central while the other possibility is mild west to northwest winds ... this mainly depends on how effectively the approaching remnants of the formerly strong U.S. low are able to push back the stalled frontal boundary mid-week; some indications suggest that this low will really be so weak that it will merely be absorbed into the messy frontal boundary and renew the sleety precipitation. Longer term, there are indications of fairly sharp frosts and below normal temperatures in the second half of the month.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Rain with some sleet or wet snow further north or on hills in south, rather cold with highs 4-6 C south, 2-4 C central.

TONIGHT ... Rain, sleet or wet snow continuing, with a trend towards more sleet and snow, lows 1-3 C.

MONDAY ... Rain in south and southwest, sleet a bit further north but snowfall in parts of northeast, central England, sunny and cold inland and over much of Scotland. Highs 0-3 C except 3-7 C southwest.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... It is likely to remain quite cold except possibly in western Scotland mid-week. Ice fog may be persistent in some central regions. Sunshine could be fairly frequent in western regions, and wintry showers or snow most likely (after Monday's snowfall ends) in the east. Milder weather could spread back into Scotland and parts of northwest England, Wales mid-week, but the colder regime could try to hold on under a weak ridge of high pressure in the southeast.

Forecasts for North America

The east coast storm is now in a weaker state and will bring 5-15 cm snow to parts of Newfoundland, clearing further west. Winds have dropped off considerably to about 50-80 km/hr. Sunny and a bit milder over the deep snow in the northeast and Great Lakes, increasing cloud later, highs 2-5 C. Rain spreading north into the Midwest with fog and highs 5-8 C. Showers further south and 12-15 C. Some snow or freezing rain in the northern plains and eastern prairies, mild and dry further west.

My local weather on Saturday was partly to mostly cloudy and about 7 C.

M.T. Cranium · 11-02-2013 7:56am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 11 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain in parts of the west becoming more showery, heaviest in Kerry and Cork for rest of the morning, 15-25 mm locally, otherwise patchy and rather light drizzly rain that becomes more sleety in central and eastern counties, snow on some hills in east and north. Highs will range from about 5-8 C southwest to 2-4 C east and northeast.

TONIGHT ... Partly to mostly cloudy, cold, scattered outbreaks of sleet or light snow, mostly in higher elevations, lows -2 to +3 C.

TUESDAY ... Brighter intervals for some parts of the east but cold, with isolated snow or hail streamers possible in a moderate east to northeast wind with temperatures steady about 1-4 C in north and east until late afternoon and evening when milder air present over western counties (5-8 C) may return ... cloudy with drizzle, fog or light rain in parts of west, lows near 2 C and highs near 6 C although could reach 8-9 C by evening.

WEDNESDAY ... Most likely outcome is cloud with periods of rain (5-15 mm) and somewhat milder, highs 7-9 C. Moderate S to SW winds veering westerly. There is a slight chance that this will turn into another heavy rainfall but guidance for that is considered weaker.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, a bit colder again, lows 1-3 C and highs 5-7 C.

FRIDAY ... Dry and chilly, morning frosts, lows -3 to 0 C, afternoon highs about 5-8 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The most likely trend is towards dry and rather cold weather under modified arctic high pressure, frosts each night but not staying too cold mid-day, so generally lows about -3 C and highs about 6 to 8 C.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Rain in south and southwest, sleet a bit further north, mixing with wet snow north of London, but heavier snowfall in parts of northeast, central England, south-central Scotland ... sunny and cold where not snowing and highs near 1-3 C except 3-7 C southwest.

TONIGHT ... Further snow (some accumulations 5-10 cm) and frosty, lows about -2 C on average but could reach -8 C or lower in clearing over parts of Scotland and northern England well inland.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... It is likely to remain quite cold except possibly in western Scotland mid-week. Ice fog may be persistent in some central regions. Sunshine could be fairly frequent in western regions, and wintry showers or snow most likely (after Monday's snowfall ends) in the east. Milder weather could spread back into Scotland and parts of northwest England, Wales mid-week, but the colder regime could try to hold on under a weak ridge of high pressure in the southeast.

Forecasts for North America

Milder with rain over the heavy snow pack of the northeast, some melting will take place although it won't lead to severe flooding as highs of 8-10 C and brief duration will not melt enough snow, but some urban "ponding" could cause problems and roof collapses may occur especially where roofs are flat and not sloped ... this milder weather will end in the Midwest and central plains states where it will turn a bit colder again with highs near 5 C. Persistent rain and isolated severe storms in the southeast U.S., GA-SC and nFL most likely to see severe storms today. Rather bland patterns over the west with rain developing gradually near the coast.

My local weather on Sunday was pleasant and sunny with highs near 8 C.

M.T. Cranium · 12-02-2013 8:17am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 12 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Brighter intervals for some parts of the east but cold, with isolated snow or hail streamers possible in a moderate east to northeast wind with temperatures steady about 3-5 C in north and east until late afternoon and evening when milder air present over western counties (6-9 C) may return ... cloudy with drizzle, fog or light rain in parts of west, highs reaching 8-9 C by evening.

TONIGHT ... Rain, drizzle and fog spreading gradually further east, 5-15 mm likely in west, 2-5 mm east. Turning milder in east, temperatures likely to rise from 2-4 C to about 6 C. Mild through the night in west, lows near 7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with periods of rain (a further 5-15 mm in all regions) and milder, highs 8-11 C. Moderate S to SW winds 40-70 km/hr veering westerly by evening. Some spot flooding is possible in western counties.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers and turning slightly colder again, lows 1-3 C and highs 5-7 C. Winds west to northwest 30-50 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Dry and chilly, morning frosts, lows -3 to 0 C, cloudy with sunny intervals for most, light rain possible in southwest, afternoon highs about 7 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Rather mild in west this weekend, highs 10-12 C possible, with partly cloudy to overcast skies. Not quite as mild in eastern counties due to southeast winds, highs 7-9 C. Foggy at night inland, could stay dry although rain will threaten from southwest at times.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... During next week, there may be an outbreak of colder weather from the east, according to the European model, this could be the coldest weather since mid-January and possibly colder. Confidence on this is about 60%, other models are not totally in agreement although most show colder temperatures than the weekend.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, scattered outbreaks of sleet or snow, generally slight accumulations. Highs 2-5 C.

TONIGHT ... Cold in the southeast, turning milder elsewhere, rain arriving in Wales, Scotland, northwest England. Temperatures about -3 to +2 C southeast but rising to about 5 C elsewhere.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with rain, possibly mixing with wet snow in southeast England. Highs generally 7-9 C but closer to 4 C in southeast.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The somewhat milder spell will fade on Thursday back to slightly colder weather, and higher pressure will bring a spell of cold, foggy conditions for southern and eastern England, somewhat milder in southwest England, Wales and western Scotland. This spell will trend towards more widespread cold and fog through the weekend and could eventually lead to much colder weather in about a week.

Forecasts for North America

Widespread rain across the southeast states may become heavy in some areas, while a mixture of rain and wet snow (generally light) moves out of New England and into eastern Canada. Dry with near-normal temperatures across large sections of the northeast U.S., Great Lakes, and Midwest, with light snow further north. Mild and dry in plains states, trending to cloudy with light rain further west, snow over higher mountains. The rain in the southeast could push northeast bringing 5-15 cm snow by Thursday to regions that saw a heavy snowfall last weekend.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy with light rain or drizzle and rather chilly with highs about 6 C.

M.T. Cranium · 13-02-2013 8:04am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 13 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with periods of rain (a further 5-15 mm in all regions, with the heavier amounts in north) and milder, highs 8-11 C. Moderate S to SW winds 40-70 km/hr veering westerly by evening. Some spot flooding is possible in parts of Connacht, Ulster, north Leinster.

TONIGHT ... A few more showers with a sharp cold front, winds veering to westerly 50-80 km/hr then turning colder, lows by morning about 2-4 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers and somewhat colder again, highs about 5-7 C. Winds subsiding to west-northwest 30-50 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Dry and chilly, morning frosts, lows -3 to 0 C, cloudy with sunny intervals for most, light rain possible in southwest, afternoon highs about 7 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Rather mild in west this weekend, highs 10-12 C possible, with partly cloudy to overcast skies. Not quite as mild in eastern counties due to southeast winds, highs 7-9 C. Foggy at night inland, could stay dry although rain will threaten from southwest at times.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... During next week, the first day or two should continue rather mild especially for western counties, but there may be an outbreak of colder weather from the east, according to the European model, and this could be the coldest weather since mid-January and possibly colder. Confidence on this is about 60%, other models are not totally in agreement although most show colder temperatures after about Tuesday 19th.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with rain, possibly starting as or mixing with wet snow in southeast England. Highs generally 7-9 C but closer to 4 C in southeast. Some freezing rain is possible for a time around Cambridge, Luton before milder air mixes fully down to lower levels. Foggy with the onset of rain.

TONIGHT ... Rain to showers, temperatures about 5-8 C falling off to 2-4 C in some western regions before morning.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The somewhat milder spell will fade on Thursday back to slightly colder weather, and higher pressure will bring a spell of cold, foggy conditions for southern and eastern England, somewhat milder in southwest England, Wales and western Scotland. This spell will trend towards more widespread cold and fog through the weekend and could eventually lead to much colder weather in about a week. Milder air that might make it fairly easily into western Ireland will only get into parts of western Scotland, otherwise colder air is likely to remain more in control over much of Britain, and when colder air still arrives from the east, snow could develop again in southeast England. It remains to be seen whether this will spread much further to the west at that time (in about a week).

Forecasts for North America

Heavy rain tapering off to showers in parts of the southeast, and as moisture spreads north, it may turn to wet snow for Washington DC, parts of New Jersey and Delaware, Maryland then later Long Island. A rain-snow mix is likely in larger cities due to urban heat island effects. This rather minor event will not spread much further north than the coast and it will remain largely dry and seasonable in the Great Lakes and Midwest, trending to somewhat milder than normal in the south central states. A weak push of colder air from the Canadian prairies will seep into the northern plains states dropping temperatures a few degrees below freezing, but milder air is now moving inland from the Pacific coast and even at high latitudes around the southern Yukon and NWT, temperatures will be approaching 3-5 C.

My local weather on Tuesday was partly cloudy with highs near 7 C.

M.T. Cranium · 14-02-2013 8:03am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 14 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

"Don't you just love this model ? "

TODAY ... Variable cloud including some sunny intervals (probably more prolonged in eastern counties), showers diminishing and largely confined to west, highs about 6-9 C. Winds west-northwest 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals, colder, isolated frost. Lows -3 to +2 C. Fog may develop in some inland valleys.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, light rain by evening in west, amounts only 1-3 mm, afternoon highs about 7-9 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Rather mild in west this weekend, highs 10-13 C possible (it could be quite warm in fact in parts of west Munster), with partly cloudy to overcast skies and a few intervals of drizzle or light rain possible. Not quite as mild in eastern counties due to southeast winds, highs 7-10 C. Foggy at night inland, could stay dry although rain will threaten from southwest at times. Overnight lows generally -2 to +3 C but staying milder in west (4-7 C).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... During next week, the first day or two should continue rather mild (8-11 C) especially for western counties, but there may be an outbreak of colder weather from the east, still being aggressively promoted by the European model, and arriving by Tuesday night in the east. This could drop temperatures close to freezing in the daytime and towards -5 C at night, and snow is possible, but we await a larger model consensus. The Canadian GEM model is starting to show a similar trend with the latest run.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Rain ending soon in east, and later this morning across south coast, then partly cloudy, rather breezy (W 40-70 km/hr) and temperatures steady in the range 6-8 C east, 8-10 C west. A few more showers could develop this afternoon mostly near west-facing slopes.

TONIGHT ... Gradual clearing, turning colder in most regions except western Scotland, lows generally -3 to +2 C (3-7 C western Scotland).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The somewhat milder spell will fade on Friday back to slightly colder weather, and higher pressure will bring a spell of cold, foggy conditions for southern and eastern England, somewhat milder in southwest England, Wales and western Scotland. This spell will trend towards more widespread cold and fog through the weekend and could eventually lead to much colder weather in about a week. Milder air that might make it fairly easily into western Ireland will only get into parts of western Scotland, otherwise colder air is likely to remain more in control over much of Britain, and when colder air still arrives from the east, snow could develop again in southeast England. It remains to be seen whether this will spread much further to the west at that time (in about a week). On the current guidance of the European model, there could be heavy snow in eastern England at times by mid-week, and temperatures as low as -5 C.

Forecasts for North America

Generally a rather quiet weather pattern now, with a weak disturbance spreading 1-3 cm of wet snow across Long Island and southeast Massachusetts today, dry and seasonable further north and clearing in NJ-PA where a bit of snow fell overnight ... rain becoming more isolated in southeast, sunny with highs near 17 C in Texas, trending to 8-10 C under cloud in central plains states and -2 C with light snow in northern plains, as a weak low drifts southeast from Saskatchewan. Rather cold in most of central-western Canada but near normal in B.C. and Alberta.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy with a high near 8 C.

M.T. Cranium · 15-02-2013 8:12am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 15 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy west, cloudy with sunny intervals east, light rain or drizzle will edge onto west coast later this morning and then make some further progress east by evening, amounts only 1-3 mm, afternoon highs about 7-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals, rather cold inland east and north, fog patches, drizzle ending. Lows 3-6 C on average.

SATURDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, quite mild in western counties, highs about 11-13 C, closer to 9-10 C east. There may be a few outbreaks of drizzle but generally it should be a dry day with light southerly winds (trending to southeast near east coast).

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, a bit cooler as winds back to southeast 20-40 km/hr, mostly dry but some outbreaks of drizzle possible near coasts. Morning lows -1 to +3 C and highs 7-11 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... At this point, the consensus is cloudy, possible rain at times south and west, winds SE 30-50 km/hr, and temperatures fairly steady in the range 6-8 C although possibly milder in southwest.

WEDNESDAY to SUNDAY 24th ... This period is indicated to be colder than normal, in east to southeast winds. The depth of cold air may be rather shallow and temperatures may fall only slightly in the west and south, but somewhat further towards 2-4 C in the east and north. This may bring a risk of mixed wintry precipitation at times in those regions. Some models are hinting at a colder, snowy outcome during the period, but there's not enough consensus on that to rate it as the most likely outcome.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, mostly dry with a few outbreaks of drizzle near coasts, colder again with highs generally 4-7 C. Some parts of northern Scotland will have more frequent showers and will be milder (9 C).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Higher pressure will bring a spell of cold, foggy conditions for southern and eastern England, somewhat milder in southwest England, Wales and western Scotland. This spell will trend towards more widespread cold and fog through the weekend and could eventually lead to much colder weather developing in stages Monday through Wednesday; snow could develop again in southeast England around Tuesday and following days. It remains to be seen whether this will spread much further to the west at that time; also, the coldest air may then shift a bit further north to bring higher risks of snow in Yorkshire and northeast England, eastern Scotland.

Forecasts for North America

Weather patterns are changing rather slowly, rain continues to dissipate to scattered showers in the southeast but an area of thunderstorms will develop in Florida. Sunny and a bit warmer today in the south central states (22-25 C) and cloudy, mild further north. Milder air is also pushing across the Rockies into the prairies and any light snow will end with above freezing temperatures and a chinook warming event. Quite warm in the southwestern states.

The northeast remains mostly cloudy and near normal in temperature, but the weekend brings the risk of another fairly substantial snowfall event especially for eastern New England and the inland parts of the Canadian Maritime provinces, amounts could be 20-30 cm or even more. New York City would be on the western edge of this snowfall and might see anywhere from 2 to 10 cm in gusty north to northwest winds by Sunday.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with drizzle, and highs near 8 C.

M.T. Cranium · 16-02-2013 8:27am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 16 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

Model consensus continues to indicate much colder weather arriving near the end of next week, and it could be cold enough to snow (especially over eastern counties and possibly the south coast). I think the chances are realistically better than 60% but models can be wrong, even when they all show a similar outcome at 5-7 days. So we're into a watch situation rather than an alert at this distance. In the meantime, the weather will be changing very gradually as this currently mild air mass loses its upper support and this may lead to an increase in fog and mist especially over central and inland eastern, northern counties.

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, quite mild in western counties, highs about 11-13 C, closer to 9-10 C east. There may be a few outbreaks of drizzle but generally it should be a dry day with light southerly winds (trending to southeast near east coast).

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some drizzle and fog or mist, any clearing would lead to colder temperatures but generally it should remain relatively mild in the range of 4-7 C. Winds light to moderate southeasterly.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, a bit cooler as winds back to southeast 20-40 km/hr, mostly dry but some outbreaks of drizzle possible near coasts with highs 7-11 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Overcast for most, a few brighter intervals in east and north, possible light rain at times south and west, winds SE 30-50 km/hr, and temperatures fairly steady in the range 6-8 C although possibly milder in southwest. Overnight lows 2-4 C and possibly slight frosts returning to central and inland eastern counties.

WEDNESDAY to SUNDAY 24th ... This period is indicated to be colder than normal, in east to southeast winds. The depth of cold air (which appeared rather shallow at this time on yesterday's model runs) appears somewhat more substantial especially across Leinster and Ulster, so that temperatures may fall to 2-5 C in the west and south, but somewhat further towards 0-3 C in the east and north. This may bring a risk of mixed wintry precipitation at times in those regions. Some models are still hinting at an even colder, snowy outcome during the period, but I would like to see that trend become better established before venturing to rate it as a very likely outcome. I would set the probability of some accumulating snow (away from milder west coast) at about 50-60 per cent on the current guidance (most likely to happen Friday to Sunday). I would rate the chance of a more severe outbreak with heavy snow or severe cold more like 20-30 per cent for eastern Ireland although if you read the forecasts for Britain below, you'll see that it appears very likely there.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY and SUNDAY ... Both days are likely to be rather misty or foggy away from the south coast which will likely be partly cloudy to overcast, or western Scotland where it should be overcast with a few showers. Highs for most regions will be 4-7 C, but it could stay colder in a few spots due to a general lack of mixing down of any milder air above inversions, whereas some coastal locations could be milder with a breeze from the warmer surrounding waters (about 8-10 C). Overnight lows could fall to -3 C with dense freezing fog in parts of the Midlands and south central counties.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This gradual cooling of a stagnant air mass could eventually lead to much colder weather developing in stages Monday through Wednesday; snow could develop again in southeast England around Tuesday or Wednesday and on several of the following days. It remains to be seen whether this will spread much further to the west at that time; also, the coldest air may then shift a bit further north to bring higher risks of snow in Yorkshire and northeast England, eastern Scotland. The chances of a severe cold spell with significant snowfall is probably about 50-60 per cent for eastern England now, and 40 per cent for regions further west and north although more like 30 per cent for western Scotland. The guidance now available from most global models would suggest 15-30 cm snow potential in parts of the south and east, as well as overnight lows further inland near -7 C and possibly lower if snow cover develops there first before clearing sets in.

Forecasts for North America

The weekend forecasts for the northeast states are somewhat uncertain as snowfall may spread back to the west from a rapidly developing but offshore low; Maine and New Brunswick are most likely to see heavy snowfalls from this, and not until later Sunday. Light snow is already occurring in areas just north of New York City and that snow will spread further east before being incorporated into the larger storm which is just now getting some circulation going east of Florida. The track appears to be about 200 miles east of Long Island into Nova Scotia; eastern parts of the Maritime provinces will see snow at first but that will change to rain in southeast gale force winds Sunday. Boston could see anywhere from 2 to 15 cm of snow depending on how powerful the low becomes later tonight near Cape Cod.

The picture is a lot clearer in central states which are in the developing warm sector of a low well to the north over Alberta and Saskatchewan, where snow may develop in central regions later today and tonight. That low will move slowly to the southeast bringing a rain-snow mix to the Great Lakes by Sunday night and Monday, but the rest of the weekend should be dry and near seasonable normals in the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. The far west remains rather mild with a weak frontal disturbance spreading cloud and some rain inland towards regions as far south as Oregon, but it should remain dry further south.

My local weather on Friday was sunny with cloudy intervals and quite mild, highs were about 8-10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 17-02-2013 8:22am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 17 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

The forecast guidance continues to show a prolonged cold and dry spell with slight potential for localized snowfalls in the south. If any details of this set-up change then the potential for snow could change more than the other variables. This might turn out to be rather pleasant weather in parts of the north which could be in sunny and almost calm conditions, and as many are saying on weather chat threads, the trade-off of temperature for sunshine is welcome at this point. However, we continue to watch this very closely, because there is still some chance of snow becoming more prominent in the forecast. And of course, this is all still four or five days away, with a gradual cooling trend between now and then.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, a bit cooler as winds back to southeast 20-40 km/hr, mostly dry but some outbreaks of drizzle or light rain possible near west coast with highs 7-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Somewhat colder than previous nights and a few clear intervals with mist or fog developing, lows 2-6 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Overcast for most, a few brighter intervals in east and north, possible light rain at times south and west, winds SE 30-50 km/hr, and temperatures fairly steady in the range 6-8 C although possibly milder in southwest. Overnight lows 2-4 C and possibly slight frosts returning to central and inland eastern counties.

WEDNESDAY to SUNDAY 24th ... There may be little change on Wednesday especially in the west, but Thursday and Friday should see considerably colder weather with sharp frosts at night, lows to -5 C and highs around 2-4 C. There will be a mixture of cloud and sunshine and some passing wintry showers on moderate easterly winds are possible although it looks like a dry pattern in general. By the weekend of 23-24 Feb, the current guidance would suggest cold and dry weather with moderate east winds in the south, trending to light southeast or calm further north. Temperatures would likely remain about the same (range near -5 to 3 C) but it could get a bit milder in sheltered parts of the north during the day under the bright and warming late February sun. This picture is not necessarily carved in stone, there could be a lot more cloud if the gradient tightens and some snow showers would then be possible, or rain and sleet in west Munster if the models have overdone the strength of the cold push to any extent. These details remain uncertain, but we can be fairly confident that temperatures will average at least 3-5 degrees below normal.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Rather misty or foggy away from the south coast which will likely be partly cloudy to overcast, or western Scotland where it should be more overcast with some drizzle at times. Highs for most regions will be 4-7 C, but it could stay colder in a few spots due to a general lack of mixing down of any milder air above inversions, whereas some coastal locations could be milder with a breeze from the warmer surrounding waters (about 8-10 C). Overnight lows could fall to -3 C with dense freezing fog in parts of the Midlands and south central counties.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This gradual cooling of a stagnant air mass could eventually lead to much colder weather developing in stages Monday through Wednesday; snow could develop again in southeast England around Tuesday night or Wednesday and on several of the following days. It remains to be seen whether this will spread much further to the west at that time; also, the coldest air may then shift a bit further north to bring higher risks of snow in Yorkshire and northeast England, eastern Scotland, but the greatest chance for snow is likely to be in the London region and along the south coast especially west of the Isle of Wight. The chances of a severe cold spell with significant snowfall is probably about 60-80 per cent for eastern England now, and 50 per cent for regions further west and north although more like 30 per cent for western Scotland. The guidance now available from most global models would suggest 15-30 cm snow potential in parts of the south and east, as well as overnight lows further inland near -7 C and possibly lower if snow cover develops there first before clearing sets in.

Forecasts for North America

An intense storm will develop mid-day and hit eastern Canada and nearby eastern Maine with 20-40 cm of snow and very strong NNE winds; this snow will change to freezing rain and rain east of Halifax NS in veering winds to south then southwest, and Newfoundland will only see a bit of snow before a heavy rain arrives on very strong southeast winds. The rest of New England could see a brief period of moderate snow overnight and early morning then cloudy, windy and colder weather with light snow at times. That will generally be the trend all day further west except for some locally heavy lake effect snow squalls, with temperatures near -5 C (normals are now closer to +4 C).

Much milder just to the west of the Great Lakes across most of the central states, with a rain to snow mix over the far northern plains states and eastern prairies. Mild and dry on the west coast and sunny, warm in the inland southwest with cloud and stronger winds near the California coast, some showers developing.

My local weather on Saturday was very pleasant for a change, sunny with nearby shower clouds over the mountains, and mild. Highs reached 12-14 C.

M.T. Cranium · 18-02-2013 8:43am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 18 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Overcast for south and west, rain may brush Kerry at times, partly sunny in east and north, winds SE 30-60 km/hr, and temperatures fairly steady in the range 6-8 C although possibly milder in southwest.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals east, north but cloudy in south and west, lows about 4-6 C under that cloud, but -1 to +2 C under clearing skies and about 3 or 4 C near east coast ... possibly slight frosts in a few places in central and eastern counties.

TUESDAY ... Little change with cloud in most of south and west, clear to partly cloudy skies in east and north, winds SE 30-60 km/hr and highs 5-7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Extensive cloud is likely with a few passing sleety showers near south coast, but largely dry and turning colder in brisk E-SE winds. Morning lows 1-3 C and afternoon highs 4-6 C.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY ... The guidance has not changed much for Ireland in this cold but largely dry spell ... Thursday and Friday should see considerably colder weather with sharp frosts at night, lows to -5 C and highs around 2-4 C. There will be a mixture of cloud and sunshine and some passing wintry showers on moderate easterly winds are possible although it looks like a dry pattern in general. By the weekend of 23-24 Feb, the current guidance would suggest cold and dry weather with moderate east winds in the south, trending to light southeast or calm further north. Temperatures would likely remain about the same (range near -5 to 3 C) but it could get a bit milder in sheltered parts of the north during the day under the bright and warming late February sun. There could be a lot more cloud if the gradient tightens and some snow showers would then be possible, or rain and sleet in west Munster if the models have overdone the strength of the cold push to any extent. We should also be aware of the potential for a front to develop across Connacht and Ulster with milder air to the north, but so far the models are keeping this a very weak and dry feature. These details remain uncertain, but we can be fairly confident that temperatures will average at least 3-5 degrees below normal. Highs most days should be about 4-6 C for most but could be as cold as 2-4 C, or as high as 7-9 C in some sheltered northwestern locations that will be furthest from the gradual push of the colder air. Overnight lows in this cold spell could fall to -3 to -6 C and even lower in a few places.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY and TUESDAY will remain moderately cold with highs generally 6-8 C although lingering fog might keep it closer to 3-5 C in some inland southeastern locations. Tomorrow morning's lows will be about -3 to +2 C from rural to urban settings, and about +4 C in the southwest. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy but some places will see a bit of weak sunshine through higher cloud layers.

On WEDNESDAY, much colder air will flood into eastern England and snow could develop in the southeast. Wintry sunshine will break out somewhat further north and west, but the former cloud mass will still be present to the west of that, and temperatures will range from -2 C in Kent to +7 in south Wales and Devon-Cornwall, as well as parts of northwest England and western Scotland.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY will be bitterly cold except in parts of northwest Scotland. Highs will be -2 to +4 C and lows -10 to -4 C. Some additional snow is likely each day in the southeast and this may spread to Dorset, Devon and Cornwall at times by Thursday night and Friday. Winds will be moderate E-SE 40-60 km/hr in the south, to 20-40 km/hr in Scotland.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY could see widespread light to moderate snow in southern and eastern England, trending to cold sunshine in Wales and central-northwestern England, and sunny, more seasonable conditions in Scotland, despite sharp frosts at night. Highs will continue well below normal in the range of -3 to +3 C, lows -12 to -7 C except closer to -3 C in onshore coastal regions in the continuing brisk E or ESE winds. Highs about 5-8 C in western Scotland where the weather may not feel all that cold partly due to lighter winds.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Cold but less severe as time goes on, especially in northern regions which could become quite mild later in the period 25 Feb to 3 March. Some further snow risks could develop in the south.

Forecasts for North America

Windy with rain and fog in Newfoundland, then very windy and colder (winds becoming SW 60-100 km/hr). Snow ending across the rest of eastern Canada from west, but continuing in squalls from Gulf of St Lawrence in strong W-NW winds. Clearing and cold in New England, sunny and cold in other parts of northeast, highs near -5 C. Milder in Great Lakes and Midwest, highs 3-7 C east to 7-12 C west, and this milder air will reach the mid-Atlantic states and the southeast also, bringing temperatures back up above 10 C again. Very mild (17 C) in some places further west such as Memphis, Louisville until a sharp cold front arrives with showers and thunderstorms, and a few severe storms possibly. This will be the leading edge of colder air pushing south from central-western Canada behind a snowfall event in the eastern prairies ending today with 20 cm on the ground. Temperatures in this new push of arctic air will be moderate, -2 to -4 C. Mild and dry further west.

My local weather on Sunday was cloudy with some brighter intervals and rather chilly compared to recent days, only about 7 C.

Updates will be posted this evening if the model runs this afternoon are suggesting any changes in the outlook for cold weather later this week.

M.T. Cranium · 19-02-2013 8:20am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 19 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ADVANCE ALERT for moderately severe cold Thursday to about Tuesday, more prolonged in the inland south and east, and the slight risk of coastal snow in east and south around the weekend. Details in forecasts.

TODAY ... Cloud will persist in south and west, clear to partly cloudy skies in east and north once any mist or fog dissipates, winds may be calm in most inland locations at first, then will increase later to SE 30-60 km/hr with highs 5-7 C for most, 7-9 C west Munster.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy intervals, breezy, cold except in far southwest. There may be a few traces of sleet with a weak front arriving late in the night in eastern counties. Lows -1 to +3 C (except 4-6 C in west Munster).

WEDNESDAY ... Extensive cloud is likely with a few passing sleety showers near south coast, but largely dry and turning colder in brisk E-SE winds with highs 4-6 C.

THURSDAY ... Cold and breezy with a slight risk of snow showers near east and south coasts, sunny for most although some cloudy intervals especially south, west ... morning lows -2 to +3 C, highs 4-7 C.

FRIDAY ... Very cold and breezy with risk of isolated snow showers, mainly near south and east coast, partly sunny after any morning ice fog dissipates ... morning lows -5 to -2 C and afternoon highs -1 to +3 C for most, probably a bit milder in southwest and possibly Donegal-Derry (4-6 C).

SATURDAY ... Very cold with risk of some snow at times in east, and near south coast, some sunshine inland, morning lows -7 to -3 C, afternoon highs about -1 to +3 C for most, 4-6 C in southwest and some far northern counties.

SUNDAY ... More sunshine and less cloud, still very cold ... morning lows around -7 to -3 C, afternoon highs near 2 to 5 C. Northern counties may actually be milder than elsewhere, as the east winds will abate somewhat across the south and nearly calm conditions prevail in the north.

OUTLOOK ... The most likely scenario is that the cold high will hang around for days slowly modifying to almost seasonable (by then early March) temperatures and then a second cold spell may begin from a more northerly origin. That one may then break down with stormy weather and a return to rain after some snow or sleet, so use the dry spell to your advantage.

Forecasts for Britain

ALERT for severe cold and locally heavy snowfalls, the cold almost everywhere in Britain except possibly northern Scotland, and the snow most likely in Kent, Essex, greater London, Surrey and then also in south to southwest coastal regions, possibly also east Midlands and Yorkshire.

TODAY will remain moderately cold after the deep chill this morning fades, with highs generally 5-7 C although lingering fog might keep it closer to 2-4 C in some inland southeastern locations.

TONIGHT will be cold again although cloud spreading in from east may actually raise temperatures for a while, lows about -4 C on average.

WEDNESDAY will bring cloud, an interval of light rain turning to sleet and then snow, and colder east winds reaching about a Sheffield to Oxford line by evening. The changes will be more subtle further north under partly cloudy skies. Highest temperatures in west about 6-8 C, in east 4-6 C steady then falling to 2-3 C. Winds becoming E 40-70 km/hr in southeast, some accumulating snows near and east of London by evening.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny for most, very cold, with locally heavy snow at times in southeast England and frigid temperatures generally near -8 C overnight and -2 C daytime, possibly a bit above freezing near coasts. Wind chills near -15 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Heavy snow possible in southeast (15-30 cm), light snow further west and north except heavy snow or sleet in Cornwall-Devon. Some wintry sunshine in Wales, northwest England, Scotland. Very cold with lows in -11 to -7 C range, highs -3 to +1 C (near 5 C in western Scotland and the Isles).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Slow moderation of the severe cold ending sooner in north-central regions and later in southeast especially over persistent snow cover. Highs will come slowly back up towards 5 C by mid-week. Overnight lows could remain very cold as skies will be clear at times.

Forecasts for North America

An active cold front (mainly non-severe) is rapidly moving east towards the Atlantic coast and should arrive there by afternoon (evening in Boston). Rain will become heavy in strong southerly winds, there may be brief thunder and then a colder westerly wind tonight. Highs 10-15 C anywhere ahead of the front, then temperatures falling to near 5 C and eventually a bit below freezing with sleet or wet snow showers followed by clearing that has already set in west of a Chicago to St Louis to Little Rock line. This air mass is not particularly cold and will bring highs near 8-10 C to the plains states. Meanwhile, a frontal wave near Houston TX is going to spread heavy rains east across the Gulf states and hold the cold front up for a day before it goes through Atlanta or Birmingham AL.

A somewhat colder northwest flow is pushing south across snow-covered west-central Canada, as the snowstorm there moves off towards Lake Superior and northern Ontario (15-30 cm will fall). Blowing snow in the eastern prairies has been causing road closures overnight. Much milder in the far west, however.

My local weather on Monday was mostly cloudy with light rain at times, and chilly highs of 5-7 C.

M.T. Cranium · 20-02-2013 8:39am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 20 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for moderately severe cold Thursday to about Tuesday, more prolonged in the inland south and east, and the slight risk of coastal snow in east and south around the weekend. Details in forecasts.

TODAY ... After some brief sunny intervals, extensive cloud is likely with a few passing sleety showers near south coast, but largely dry and turning colder in brisk E-SE winds rising later to 40-70 km/hr, with highs 6-9 C. Some western counties could briefly touch 10 C as a small wedge of mild air is pushed ahead of the rapidly advancing arctic front (which will be across western Britain by tonight).

TONIGHT ... The first stages of a colder regime may not appear any colder than recent nights as more cloud keeps the temperature from falling too low, but it will feel a lot colder in a brisk southeast wind, with spits of sleety rain or hail in places. Lows mostly 1-3 C (3-5 C west Munster) and winds SE 40-70 km/hr. A few isolated clear patches could allow temperatures to fall below freezing and create a bit of ice on a few roads.

THURSDAY ... Cold with brisk SE winds 40-70 km/hr and a slight risk of snow showers near east and south coasts, partly cloudy to sunny for most although some longer cloudy intervals especially south, west ... morning lows -2 to +3 C, highs 4-7 C.

FRIDAY ... Very cold with brisk SE winds 35-60 km/hr with risk of isolated snow showers, mainly near south and east coast, partly sunny after any morning ice fog dissipates ... morning lows -5 to -2 C and afternoon highs -1 to +3 C for most, probably a bit milder in southwest and possibly Donegal-Derry (4-6 C).

SATURDAY ... Very cold with risk of some snow at times in east, and near south coast (amounts potentially 2-4 cm), some sunshine inland mainly west and north of Laois, morning lows -7 to -3 C, afternoon highs about -1 to +3 C for most, 4-6 C in southwest and some far northern counties.

SUNDAY ... More sunshine and less cloud, still very cold ... morning lows around -7 to -3 C, afternoon highs near 2 to 5 C. Northern counties may actually be milder than elsewhere, as the east winds will abate somewhat across the south and nearly calm conditions prevail in the north.

OUTLOOK ... The most likely scenario is that the cold high will hang around for days slowly modifying to almost seasonable (by then early March) temperatures and then a second cold spell may begin from a more northerly origin. That one may then break down with stormy weather and a return to rain after some snow or sleet, so use the dry spell to your advantage. This still appears to be the most likely outcome as of Wednesday morning.

Forecasts for Britain

ALERT for severe cold and locally heavy snowfalls, the cold almost everywhere in Britain except possibly northern Scotland, and the snow most likely in Kent, Essex, greater London, Surrey and then also in south to southwest coastal regions, possibly also east Midlands and Yorkshire.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, an interval of light rain turning to sleet and then snow inland east, and colder east winds reaching about a Sheffield to Oxford line by evening. The changes will be more subtle further north under partly cloudy skies. Highest temperatures in west about 6-8 C, in east temperatures will be steady around 4-6 C then later falling to 2-3 C. Winds SE 20-40 km/hr becoming E 40-70 km/hr in southeast England and 30-50 km/hr further north, some accumulating snows possible near and east of London by evening.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny for most, very cold, with locally heavy snow at times in southeast England and frigid temperatures generally near -8 C overnight and -2 C daytime, possibly a bit above freezing near coasts. Wind chills near -15 C. Kent and parts of greater London could see about 10-15 cm snow in some places and 2-5 cm more widespread.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Heavy snow possible in southeast (15-30 cm), light snow further west and north except heavy snow or sleet in Cornwall-Devon. Some wintry sunshine in Wales, northwest England, Scotland. Very cold with lows in -11 to -7 C range, highs -3 to +1 C (near 5 C in western Scotland and the Isles).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Slow moderation of the severe cold ending sooner in north-central regions and later in southeast especially over persistent snow cover. Highs will come slowly back up towards 5 C by mid-week. Overnight lows could remain very cold (-9 to -5 C) as skies will be clear at times and there could be remnant snow cover. The mildest part of the U.K. will be northern Scotland for most of the next week or two.

Forecasts for North America

A significant storm is developing over southern and central California tonight with rain and mountain snows, and this will spread into Nevada, Utah and Arizona by morning, with snow becoming more widespread except in south-central Arizona. That system will be into the plains states by late tonight and Thursday. Warmer today in Texas with rain and thunderstorms spreading north, but cool and rainy across the southeast except in south-central Florida.

The northeast states will see wet snow flurries moving slowly out of the region on moderate WSW winds, and clear, rather cold conditions will follow from their current base in the Midwest. The central and northern plains states will be around 4-6 C under cloud and east to southeast winds ahead of the desert southwest storm system. Tomorrow they will have heavy snow (freezing rain in parts of n TX, OK and AR into se KS). The Canadian west is generally clear and rather cold.

My local weather was sunny and rather cool with highs only about 5 C, and this evening is clear with a good view of the Moon approaching its northern declination maximum (over the right shoulder of Orion if he's facing us, and that reminds me, I neglected to mention as an astronomy note that the Moon had passed Jupiter yesterday).

Check the discussion threads for more details on the cold and limited snow potential (I believe it's limited anyway, perhaps very limited, but the situation is subject to change if any kind of organized disturbance develops either in the cold southeast flow, or to the south of Ireland around Sunday-Monday).

M.T. Cranium · 21-02-2013 8:39am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 21 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for moderately severe cold from tonight to about Tuesday, more prolonged in the inland south and east, and the risk of snow in east and south around the weekend. Details in forecasts.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and cold with brisk SE winds 40-70 km/hr and a slight risk of brief sleet or snow showers near east and south coasts, partly cloudy to sunny inland north but some longer cloudy intervals southeast, central and west ... highs about 4-7 C, mildest in southwest.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals, brisk SE winds 30-60 km/hr, and colder with lows -5 to -2 C in most regions, +1 to +4 C in west Munster. There could be brief snow showers in a few locations near the south and southeast coasts.

FRIDAY ... Very cold with brisk SE backing to E winds 35-60 km/hr with risk of isolated snow showers, mainly near south and east coast, further west some sunny intervals may develop after any morning ice fog dissipates ... morning temperatures of -5 to -2 C will be slow to moderate, and afternoon highs -1 to +3 C for most could feel closer to -4 C, although probably a bit milder in southwest and possibly Donegal-Derry (4-6 C).

SATURDAY ... Very cold with risk of some snow at times in east, and near south coast (amounts potentially 2-4 cm), some sunshine inland mainly west and north of Laois, morning lows -7 to -3 C, afternoon highs about -1 to +3 C for most, 4-6 C in southwest and some far northern counties. Winds rather slack in north but E-NE 20-40 km/hr across central and southern counties. Slight risk of heavier snow developing near Dublin, Wicklow as very cold air drains out from Wales and crosses the Irish Sea.

SUNDAY ... A little more sunshine and less cloud, still very cold ... morning lows around -8 to -4 C, afternoon highs near 2 to 5 C. Some continuing risk of localized snowfalls near east coast in moderate NE winds at times, also some risk of lingering ice fog inland. There could also be pockets of somewhat milder weather in the northwest, particularly Donegal and Derry, with highs about 4-7 C and possibly more sunshine than elsewhere.

OUTLOOK ... The most likely scenario is that the cold high will hang around for days slowly modifying to almost seasonable (by then early March) temperatures with the moderation more notable in the north at first, nights remaining quite cold, and then a second cold spell may begin from a more northerly origin about 2-3 March. Expect some wintry showers when that colder spell begins, a cold, dry spell to follow, then that may break down with stormy weather and a return to rain after some snow or sleet, so use the dry spell to your advantage.

Forecasts for Britain

ALERT for severe cold and locally heavy snowfalls, the cold almost everywhere in Britain except possibly northern Scotland, and the snow most likely in Kent, Essex, greater London, Surrey and then also in south to southwest coastal regions, possibly also east Midlands and Yorkshire.

TODAY, TONIGHT and FRIDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy for most, and very cold, with locally heavy snow at times in southeast England and frigid temperatures generally near -2 to +2 C today, -8 C overnight and then near or below -2 C daytime on Friday, although possibly a bit above freezing near east and southwest coasts. Wind chills near -15 C. Kent and parts of greater London could see about 10-15 cm snow in some places and 2-5 cm more widespread. Northern Scotland will not be quite as cold, highs near 4-6 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Heavy snow possible in southeast (15-30 cm), light snow further west and north except heavy snow or sleet in Cornwall-Devon. Some wintry sunshine in Wales, northwest England, Scotland. Very cold with lows in -11 to -7 C range, highs -3 to +1 C (near 5 C in western Scotland and the Isles). Snow may become sleety or mix with rain at times by Sunday night into Monday morning as somewhat milder air enters the circulation from the southeast, briefly. This may only persist a few hours before sleet changes back to snow.

Note: The snowfall in the London region is likely to affect Gatwick Airport more than Heathrow, but there could be some disruptions to travel in eastern England and locally in the southwest and east-central counties at times between tonight and Monday.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Slow moderation of the severe cold ending sooner in north-central regions and later in southeast especially over persistent snow cover. Highs will come slowly back up towards 5 C by mid-week. Overnight lows could remain very cold (-9 to -5 C) as skies will be clear at times and there could be remnant snow cover. The mildest part of the U.K. will be northern Scotland for most of the next week or two. The cold spell (or settled spell for Scotland) will break down gradually around 2-3 March with wintry showers developing in advance of a strong northerly outbreak that may last a few days with further snow possible.

Forecasts for North America

A significant storm is moving into the plains states overnight and later today. Warmer across Texas with rain and thunderstorms spreading north, freezing rain in parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas and Missouri, heavy snow further north spreading towards Chicago and the Midwest. Rather cool and cloudy with isolated showers across Georgia and the Carolinas, but warm and humid in south-central Florida where some heavy thunderstorms could develop later.

The northeast states will be dry and cold with isolated snow showers, and the Midwest, Ohio valley will start out cool and dry with mixed wintry precipitation later and Friday. Mild and dry in parts of the inland southeast, with severe storms developing overnight and Friday.

Rain at times on the west coast and mountain snows spreading further inland and merging over Utah-Colorado with the plains low. Some heavy snowfalls are likely around Denver.

Meanwhile, my local weather on Wednesday was overcast with rain, heavy at times in the morning, drizzly later, and cool -- highs only 5-6 C so that hail and snow were reported at elevations not much above 150m.

M.T. Cranium · 22-02-2013 8:17am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Friday, 22 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for moderately severe cold from today to about Tuesday, more prolonged in the inland south and east, and the risk of snow in east and south around the weekend. Details in forecasts.

TODAY ... Very cold with brisk SE backing to E winds 35-60 km/hr with risk of isolated snow showers, mainly near south and east coast, further west some sunny intervals may develop ... morning temperatures of -4 to -1 C will be slow to moderate, and afternoon highs -1 to +3 C for most could feel closer to -4 C, although probably a bit milder in southwest and possibly Donegal-Derry which will not get the full effects of the colder air until tonight (today's highs about 4-6 C).

TONIGHT ... Cloudy east, south with some clear intervals west and north, brisk E-SE winds and very cold, lows -4 to -1 C on average, a few locations in central and inland western counties might drop to -6 C. A few brief snow flurries could fall near the Wicklow and Wexford coasts but most places are likely to remain dry. With the low humidity levels in this cold air mass, frost will be slight and most roads won't get too icy but a few locations could become very slippery so drive with caution as conditions might change rapidly.

SATURDAY ... Very cold with risk of some snow at times in east, and near south coast (amounts potentially 2-4 cm), some sunshine inland mainly west and north of Laois, morning lows -7 to -3 C, afternoon highs about -1 to +3 C for most, 4-6 C in southwest and some far northern counties. Winds rather slack in north but E-NE 25-45 km/hr in central counties, and 35-60 km/hr across southern counties. Slight risk of heavier snow developing near Dublin, Wicklow as very cold air drains out from Wales and crosses the Irish Sea. "Radar watching" times ahead.

SUNDAY ... A little more sunshine and less cloud, still very cold ... morning lows around -8 to -4 C, afternoon highs near 2 to 5 C. Some continuing risk of localized snowfalls near east coast in moderate NE winds at times, also some risk of lingering ice fog inland. There could also be pockets of somewhat milder weather in the northwest, particularly Donegal and Derry, with highs about 4-7 C and possibly more sunshine than elsewhere. The cold spell will moderate first in the coastal northwest.

OUTLOOK ... The most likely scenario is that the cold high will hang around for days slowly modifying to almost seasonable (by then about Friday 1st of March) temperatures (7-9 C) with the moderation more notable in the north at first, nights remaining quite cold (-5 to -2 C), and then a second cold spell may begin from a more northerly origin about 2-3 March. Expect some heavy wintry showers around 2-3 March when that colder spell begins on strong NW winds, then a cold, dry anticyclonic spell to follow, and then that may break down with stormy weather and a return to rain after some snow or sleet (this all around 8-10 March), so use the dry spells to your advantage, as I foresee the second half of March becoming rather wet.

Forecasts for Britain

ALERT for severe cold and locally heavy snowfalls 10-20 cm or more, the cold almost everywhere in Britain except possibly northern Scotland, and the heavier snow most likely in Kent, Essex, greater London, Surrey and then also in south to southwest coastal regions, possibly also in a few parts of the east Midlands and Yorkshire ... there will also be more widespread light snowfalls in the 1-3 cm range.

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy for most, sunny intervals in parts of western England and Wales, and very cold, with locally heavy snow at times in southeast England and frigid temperatures generally near -2 to +2 C today, feeling closer to -5 C. Kent and parts of greater London could see about 10-15 cm snow in some places and 2-5 cm more widespread. Northern Scotland will not be quite as cold, highs near 4-6 C.

TONIGHT ... Some continuing heavy snow in southeast and spreading into southwest at times, light snow further north, clear and very cold in Wales and parts of western England, northwest England and western Scotland, cloudy with light mixed wintry showers eastern Scotland and northeast England. Lows about -2 C near North Sea coasts and southwest, also greater London, to -7 C inland west.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Heavy snow possible in southeast (15-30 cm), light snow further west and north except heavy snow or sleet in Cornwall-Devon. Some wintry sunshine in Wales, northwest England, Scotland. Very cold with lows in -11 to -7 C range, highs -3 to +1 C (near 5 C in western Scotland and the Isles). Snow may become sleety or mix with rain at times by Sunday night into Monday morning as somewhat milder air enters the circulation from the southeast, briefly. This may only persist a few hours before sleet changes back to snow.

Note: The snowfall in the London region is likely to affect Gatwick Airport more than Heathrow, but there could be some disruptions to travel in eastern England and locally in the southwest and east-central counties at times between tonight and Monday.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Slow moderation of the severe cold ending sooner in north-central regions and later in southeast especially over persistent snow cover. Highs will come slowly back up towards 5 C by mid-week. Overnight lows could remain very cold (-9 to -5 C) as skies will be clear at times and there could be remnant snow cover. The mildest part of the U.K. will be northern Scotland for most of the next week or two. The cold spell (or settled spell for Scotland) will break down by weekend of 2-3 March with wintry showers developing in advance of a strong northwesterly to northerly outbreak that may last a few days with further snow possible.

Forecasts for North America

The northeast states and the Great Lakes (eastern half) are cold and dry in advance of an expected winter storm with mixed precipitation over the weekend; further snowfalls of 5-10 cm across parts of the Midwest, western Great Lakes, sleet near lower Great Lakes, rain across the Ohio valley, mid-Atlantic states and southeast with 15-30 mm on average, some severe storms possible in Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida. Mild to warm and dry in most of Texas, trending to cold and overcast in central plains states after the snow or freezing rain end, some lingering snow near Rockies, and heavier snowfalls moving inland in Pacific Northwest states and interior British Columbia, with rain near the coasts.

My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy to overcast with a bit of light rain at times. Highs were about 6 C. Snow has been falling above 400m in the region.

M.T. Cranium · 23-02-2013 7:39am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Saturday, 23 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for slippery or icy roads and local snow, freezing drizzle in the Dublin and Wicklow region from early morning, possibly extending to a few other places in eastern and southern counties later. .

TODAY ... Very cold with outbreaks of snow mixed with freezing drizzle at times in east, possibly extending later to parts of south coast (amounts at somewhat higher elevations potentially 2-4 cm but the icy road conditions will be the larger issue), some sunshine developing further inland mainly west and north of Laois, afternoon highs about zero to +3 C for most, 4-6 C in southwest and some far northern counties. Winds rather slack in north but E-NE 20-40 km/hr in central counties, and 25-45 km/hr across southern counties.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy but some clear spots developing, very cold, some roads becoming icy ... lows -3 to -7 C.

SUNDAY ... A little more sunshine and less cloud, still very cold ... morning cold may be slow to moderate, afternoon highs near 2 to 5 C. Less risk of localized snowfalls near east coast but one or two flurries possible, also some risk of lingering ice fog inland. There could also be pockets of somewhat milder weather in the northwest, particularly Donegal and Derry, with highs about 4-7 C and possibly more sunshine than elsewhere. The cold spell will moderate first in the coastal northwest.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, continuing quite cold although moderating somewhat in the north. Morning lows -5 to -2 C and afternoon highs 3-6 C on average. Winds light and variable.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, a bit milder in most places, after another cold night ... lows -5 to -2 C and afternoon highs 5 to 8 C. Winds westerly in northern regions, 20-40 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... The most likely scenario is that the cold high will hang around for days slowly modifying to almost seasonable (by then about Friday 1st of March) temperatures (7-9 C) with the moderation more notable in the north at first, nights remaining quite cold (-5 to -2 C), and then a second cold spell may begin from a more northerly origin about 2-3 March. Expect some heavy wintry showers around 2-3 March when that colder spell begins on strong NW winds, then a cold, dry anticyclonic spell to follow, and then that may break down with stormy weather and a return to rain after some snow or sleet (this all around 8-10 March), so use the dry spells to your advantage, as I foresee the second half of March becoming rather wet.

Forecasts for Britain

ALERT for severe cold and locally heavy snowfalls 10-20 cm or more, the cold almost everywhere in Britain except possibly northern Scotland, and the heavier snow most likely in Kent, Essex, greater London, Surrey and then also in south to southwest coastal regions, possibly also in a few parts of the east Midlands and Yorkshire ... there will also be more widespread light snowfalls in the 1-3 cm range.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Heavy snow possible in southeast (10-20 cm), light snow further west and north except heavy snow or sleet in south coast of Cornwall-Devon. Some wintry sunshine in Wales, northwest England, Scotland. Highs today about -2 to +3 C, very cold tonight with lows in the -8 to -3 C range, highs Sunday -3 to +2 C (near 5 C in western Scotland and the Isles). Snow may become sleety or mix with rain at times by Sunday night into Monday morning as somewhat milder air enters the circulation from the southeast, briefly. This may only persist a few hours before sleet changes back to snow.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Slow moderation of the severe cold ending sooner in north-central regions and later in southeast especially over persistent snow cover. Highs will come slowly back up towards 5 C by mid-week. Overnight lows could remain very cold (-9 to -5 C) as skies will be clear at times and there could be remnant snow cover. The mildest part of the U.K. will be northern Scotland for most of the next week or two. The cold spell (or settled spell for Scotland) will break down by weekend of 2-3 March with wintry showers developing in advance of a strong northwesterly to northerly outbreak that may last a few days with further snow possible.

Forecasts for North America

The Midwest storm is decaying into areas of light snow today as it pushes slowly into the Great Lakes region. Rain moving northeast from the Gulf coast and Tennessee valleys will begin to turn to sleet and snow over higher parts of West Virginia, Pennsylvania tonight. This will turn into a moderate snowstorm for the northeast on Sunday (amounts 5-10 cm).

Near normal temperatures in the southern plains and moderating across the chilly inland southwest under mostly sunny skies at first, with showers to follow. Rain or snow across most of the northwest states and British Columbia.

My local weather on Friday was cloudy with periods of rain (heavy at times in the morning) and highs near 7 C.

M.T. Cranium · 24-02-2013 8:46am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Sunday, 24 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for slippery or icy roads in many parts of the country (patchy in nature because the air mass is rather dry, but could be locally severe, so take care on the roads) and a bit more local snow, freezing drizzle in the Dublin and Wicklow region, possibly extending to a few other places in eastern and southern counties later -- not expecting as much as yesterday but a few flurries could leave a light coating especially in higher parts of Dublin and Wicklow.

TODAY ... A little more sunshine and less cloud, but colder for most places than yesterday ... morning cold may be slow to moderate, afternoon highs should make it up to near 3 C but a few inland locations may remain colder. Less risk of localized snowfalls near east coast but one or two flurries possible, also some risk of lingering ice fog inland. There could also be pockets of somewhat milder weather in the northwest, particularly Donegal and Derry, with highs about 4-7 C and possibly more sunshine than elsewhere. The cold spell will moderate first in the coastal northwest.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy with some clear intervals, ice fog developing in many inland regions, very cold again, some roads becoming icy ... lows for most places -3 to -7 C ( zero to 2 C in coastal southwest and possibly some larger urban centres).

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, continuing quite cold although moderating somewhat in the north. Morning lows -5 to -2 C and afternoon highs 3-6 C on average. Winds light and variable with a slight easterly flow, risk of isolated mixed wintry showers in east.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, a bit milder in most places, after another cold night ... lows -5 to -2 C and afternoon highs 5 to 8 C. Winds westerly in northern regions, 20-40 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... The most likely scenario is that the cold high will hang around for days slowly modifying to almost seasonable (by then about Friday 1st of March) temperatures (7-9 C) with the moderation more notable in the north at first, nights remaining quite cold (-5 to -2 C), but the models have begun to backtrack on that second cold outbreak from the north, suggesting more recently that this may become confined to Scandinavia, with the Atlantic trying to return in some strength -- this may just trap the high already present and prevent it from being swept away but this new scenario may also be replaced by something else before too long -- the early March northerly is probably not a dead issue yet.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and cold, some sunny intervals developing further west, outbreaks of sleet or snow in the southeast becoming rather heavy at times (snow accumulations may be heavier above 100m asl). Highs generally in the range -2 to +3 C.

TONIGHT ... Somewhat more clearing will allow colder temperatures to develop across most regions, except the cloud-covered southeast. Lows may drop to -8 C or so, except -2 C in the London region and southeast England.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Slow moderation of the severe cold ending sooner in north-central regions and later in southeast especially over persistent snow cover. Highs will come slowly back up towards 5 C by mid-week. Overnight lows could remain very cold (-9 to -5 C) as skies will be clear at times and there could be remnant snow cover. The mildest part of the U.K. will be northern Scotland for most of the next week or two. The cold spell (or settled spell for Scotland) will break down by weekend of 2-3 March with wintry showers developing in advance of a strong northwesterly to northerly outbreak that may last a few days with further snow possible, although this may be rather subdued and confined to eastern Scotland on the basis of later guidance ... the situation beyond five days is basically very uncertain.

Forecasts for North America

A weak storm off the New England coast is spreading rain to coastal regions and sleet or wet snow further inland. Another weak system in the Great Lakes region will bring 3-5 cm snowfalls to some regions before being dragged into the northeast U.S. system by tonight. Temperatures are generally a few degrees below late February normals (which are 5-8 C) in this region. Further south, cloudy with some light rain in places, not particularly cold but below average by a degree or two (meaning 12-14 C in the southeast states). This chill moderates further west with near normal sunny weather and 20 C highs in Texas, increasing cloud over the southwest states (showers late) and outbreaks of snow or sleet further north in the central Rockies. Another system will bring rain to coastal B.C. and Washington state, and snow to the mountains.

My local weather on Saturday was pleasant except for a rather cool breeze, sunny through high cloud and highs near 9 C.

M.T. Cranium · 25-02-2013 8:32am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Monday, 25 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for slippery or icy roads in many inland parts of the country (patchy in nature because the air mass is rather dry, but could be locally severe, so take care on the roads) ... these conditions will return each night for the foreseeable future and will persist into the morning until 0930h or later in some shaded areas ... but the situation should gradually moderate over the next week.

Astronomy note: The Moon will be full when it rises this evening, reaching full stage at 8:27 p.m. today.

TODAY ... Partly to mostly sunny, continuing quite cold although moderating somewhat in the north and southwest. Morning temperatures of -5 to -2 C may be slow to moderate in some areas, and afternoon highs will reach 3-6 C on average but could feel more like 7-10 C in the sun as winds will be light and variable with a slight easterly flow ... only a very slight risk of further isolated mixed wintry showers in east.

TONIGHT ... Another clear, cold night for most, ice fog possible and some icy roads developing, lows inland -6 to -3 C, closer to -2 to +2 C in large urban centres and outer coasts.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, a bit milder in most places, after another cold night ... lows -5 to -2 C and afternoon highs 5 to 8 C. Winds westerly in northern regions, 20-40 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... The most likely scenario is that the cold high will hang around for days slowly modifying to almost seasonable (by then about Friday 1st of March) temperatures (7-9 C) with the moderation more notable in the north at first, nights remaining quite cold (-5 to -2 C) ... meanwhile, the once-discussed cold northerly for next week is still a slight risk although it appears more likely that this northerly will be too slow to overcome a breakdown from the southwest as the high stagnates and weakens through next weekend. So, it may stay dry and a bit milder into early March, followed by a period of cool and wet weather with moderate southeast to east winds ... highs would most likely be in the 6-8 C range and frost would dissipate under the cloud, but the rain that seems inevitable could be sleety.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, milder than recent days in the east where sleet or even light rain is possible at times, highs 3-5 C. Continued rather cold in the south and west, highs 1-3 C, isolated flurries.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, as cloud and sleety showers move further west before largely dying out. Lows -3 to +2 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Slow moderation of the cold spell, ending sooner in north-central regions and later in southeast especially over persistent snow cover. Highs will come slowly back up towards 5 C by mid-week. Overnight lows could remain very cold (-9 to -5 C) where skies clear. Same comments as in the Ireland forecast would apply to the longer range, although Scotland stands a somewhat greater chance of seeing at least a brief and moderate version of the northerly next week (but it may just hang up over Iceland and dissipate there).

Forecasts for North America

Another rather strong storm system forming over Texas tonight will bring heavy rainfalls and developing severe storms to the Gulf coast region later today. Highs will reach 22-25 C near the Gulf, but much colder air will push east to reach the south central states further north by evening. That will be felt earlier in the day in most of central-western Texas with sunshine, strong W to NW winds developing and highs of only 8-10 C. The desert southwest will start clear and frosty but should warm up somewhat compared to yesterday's chilly readings. The northern plains and parts of the Rockies will see outbreaks of snow, meanwhile, the east coast will now start to see milder weather as the Texas storm slows down and turns more to the northeast tonight, bringing rain as far north as Chicago and Detroit towards Toronto by tomorrow morning. That rain will push into the northeast states on Tuesday and could be heavy at times, and temperatures that are close to normal today (7-10 C) will push a little higher towards 10-13 C on Tuesday.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with rain and fog, highs 6-8 C, and snow above 400m that was quite heavy in the alpine apparently.

M.T. Cranium · 26-02-2013 9:02am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Tuesday, 26 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

ALERT for slippery or icy roads in many inland parts of the country (patchy in nature because the air mass is rather dry, but could be locally severe, so take care on the roads) ... these conditions will return each night for the foreseeable future and will persist into the morning until 0930h or later in some shaded areas ... but the situation should gradually moderate over the next week.

TODAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny, a bit milder in most places, after another cold start in most locations ... some persistent cloud in parts of north, and near east and south coasts ... afternoon highs 5 to 8 C. Light and variable winds, some smoke from gorse fires could drift west to north from origins in Kerry (and in these stable calm conditions, layers may not break down very quickly).

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals although partly cloudy for most, still quite cold inland with lows to -4 C in places, closer to zero or +1 C under more persistent cloud.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, winds light and variable (easterly 10-20 km/hr in south) ... some coastal drizzle may develop, but generally dry with highs about 6-9 C, mildest inland north.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY ... There is increasing confidence in a dry and somewhat milder pattern (highs 8-11 C) although it could turn a few degrees colder (6-9 C) with a weak push of colder air from the northeast around the weekend. Skies will be mostly cloudy with some clear intervals, and nights may remain somewhat on the frosty side inland, likely closer to +2 C in urban centres and around the coasts. Drizzle may be observed at times but it is likely to be a largely dry period.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Just as colder air tries to re-establish itself around Monday 4 March, the Atlantic begins to take some interest in the weather again and possibly a wintry mixture of sleety precipitation in east winds could develop, although about equally likely would be a milder southeast flow in rather windy conditions, rain and 8-10 C temperatures. These details should slowly become clearer as we approach the weekend.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals further west and north, overcast in most central and eastern districts, where sleet or even light rain is possible at times, highs 4-7 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, some light sleet or drizzle in places, fog or ice fog in some valleys, and lows -3 to +2 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Slow moderation of the cold spell, ending sooner in north-central regions and later in southeast especially over persistent snow cover. Highs will come slowly back up towards 5 C by mid-week. Overnight lows could remain very cold (-9 to -5 C) where skies clear. Same comments as in the Ireland forecast would apply to the longer range, although Scotland stands a somewhat greater chance of seeing at least a brief and moderate version of the northerly next week (but it may just hang up over Iceland and dissipate there).

Forecasts for North America

The Texas storm we were discussing yesterday created a 40-50 cm blizzard for the Texas panhandle and western Oklahoma and although that has weakened somewhat, 20-30 cm of snow could fall in eastern, central Kansas and western Missouri then that could extend as 15-25 cm snow across Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and southern-central Ontario in the next day or so. Meanwhile milder air with widespread fog and rain will push north from the Gulf coast into the Ohio valley, the mid-Atlantic states and the southern portions of the lower Great Lakes with highs 5-10 C. Much warmer in the southeast states as tropical air heads north and that could lead to severe storms by tonight when the cold front arrives in Alabama, Georgia.

Further west, a dry pattern for most of the far west now, as mountain snows move further east across the Rockies towards a merger with the plains states storm around Wyoming and Nebraska.

My local weather on Monday was bright and quite cold with the recent snow on local hills apparently down almost to the level of the higher parts of the north shore urban areas (which would be 300m asl), no sign of snow very close to my location and the ground drying out after becoming slightly waterlogged in the recent wet spell (as wet as we've had it this rather dry winter season).

M.T. Cranium · 27-02-2013 9:09am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 27 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, winds light and variable (easterly 10-20 km/hr in south) ... some coastal drizzle may develop, but generally dry with highs about 6-9 C, mildest inland north.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with patchy light drizzle, mist ... lows 3-5 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, relatively mild with highs about 8 to 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, some sunny intervals developing, morning lows 2-4 C and highs 9 to 11 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Just a little colder as the winds turn more to the southeast, chance of some patchy drizzle and highs about 8 C, overnight lows may be back slightly below freezing in a few locations.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Eventually the Atlantic circulation will return and it may not be very mild at that point either, so a sleety or even wintry mix is possible although it seems more likely to be mostly rain in the south and west (by the end of next week), as southeast to east winds become stronger, reaching perhaps 50-70 km/hr with temperatures in the 5-8 C range -- raw but not that unusual.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with some sunny intervals further west and north, overcast in most central and eastern districts, where isolated light outbreaks of sleet or rain are possible at times, highs 6-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, some light sleet or drizzle in places, fog or ice fog in some valleys, and lows -3 to +2 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Friday will be somewhat milder but cloudy with highs near 9 or 10 C, then a colder turn is expected as winds back to northeast with drizzle near east coast. Nights will become frosty again, and eventually a sleety mix or wet snow could develop in some central and northern regions, cold rain in south, towards the end of next week, in moderate E-SE winds. It will probably become milder in stages around mid-March. Scotland stands a somewhat greater chance of seeing at least a brief and moderate version of the once threatened northerly next week (but it may just as likely hang up over Iceland and dissipate there as the high seems to have no way of escaping in any direction now).

Forecasts for North America

The plains states blizzard is now transferring most of its energy to a weaker system that crawled up the east coast on Tuesday with heavy rainfalls in some parts, and this may give it a second life over northern New England as a rain-snow mix in the lower Great Lakes runs into even colder air banked up over Quebec. Upstate NY and Vermont, eastern Ontario and southern Quebec could see 15-30 cm of snow, with lesser amounts around Albany to Boston and sleet or cold rain in NYC and Long Island. Further west the remnants of the blizzard will slowly dissipate but there's perhaps 3-5 cm of wet snow left in that system yet and it won't clear until Thursday in Chicago, even then, cold northerly winds could set off lake effect snow. Further west, there is not much happening as a weak ridge of high pressure is stalled waiting for all these messy weather systems to move, and then an arctic high is dropping south into the central plains to hold things up for a few more days, so the west coast will remain under cloudy skies and light rain at times while the inland southwest is dry and rather chilly by their standards but without the strong winds of the past weekend.

My local weather on Tuesday was a non-descript cloudy and drizzly sort of winter's last gasp that was not nearly as interesting as an aerial battle between crows, seagulls and a lone eagle (really) that seemed to be mainly about ownership of a bag of garbage that had fallen off a truck into the street. It was about 8 C as I watched this unfolding. Eventually the truck driver returned to collect his mess and the birds all disappeared except for the crows who plague this entire region in huge numbers. You're welcome, Tourist Board.

M.T. Cranium · 27-02-2013 9:09am

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Wednesday, 27 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, winds light and variable (easterly 10-20 km/hr in south) ... some coastal drizzle may develop, but generally dry with highs about 6-9 C, mildest inland north.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with patchy light drizzle, mist ... lows 3-5 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, relatively mild with highs about 8 to 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, some sunny intervals developing, morning lows 2-4 C and highs 9 to 11 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Just a little colder as the winds turn more to the southeast, chance of some patchy drizzle and highs about 8 C, overnight lows may be back slightly below freezing in a few locations.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Eventually the Atlantic circulation will return and it may not be very mild at that point either, so a sleety or even wintry mix is possible although it seems more likely to be mostly rain in the south and west (by the end of next week), as southeast to east winds become stronger, reaching perhaps 50-70 km/hr with temperatures in the 5-8 C range -- raw but not that unusual.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with some sunny intervals further west and north, overcast in most central and eastern districts, where isolated light outbreaks of sleet or rain are possible at times, highs 6-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, some light sleet or drizzle in places, fog or ice fog in some valleys, and lows -3 to +2 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Friday will be somewhat milder but cloudy with highs near 9 or 10 C, then a colder turn is expected as winds back to northeast with drizzle near east coast. Nights will become frosty again, and eventually a sleety mix or wet snow could develop in some central and northern regions, cold rain in south, towards the end of next week, in moderate E-SE winds. It will probably become milder in stages around mid-March. Scotland stands a somewhat greater chance of seeing at least a brief and moderate version of the once threatened northerly next week (but it may just as likely hang up over Iceland and dissipate there as the high seems to have no way of escaping in any direction now).

Forecasts for North America

The plains states blizzard is now transferring most of its energy to a weaker system that crawled up the east coast on Tuesday with heavy rainfalls in some parts, and this may give it a second life over northern New England as a rain-snow mix in the lower Great Lakes runs into even colder air banked up over Quebec. Upstate NY and Vermont, eastern Ontario and southern Quebec could see 15-30 cm of snow, with lesser amounts around Albany to Boston and sleet or cold rain in NYC and Long Island. Further west the remnants of the blizzard will slowly dissipate but there's perhaps 3-5 cm of wet snow left in that system yet and it won't clear until Thursday in Chicago, even then, cold northerly winds could set off lake effect snow. Further west, there is not much happening as a weak ridge of high pressure is stalled waiting for all these messy weather systems to move, and then an arctic high is dropping south into the central plains to hold things up for a few more days, so the west coast will remain under cloudy skies and light rain at times while the inland southwest is dry and rather chilly by their standards but without the strong winds of the past weekend.

My local weather on Tuesday was a non-descript cloudy and drizzly sort of winter's last gasp that was not nearly as interesting as an aerial battle between crows, seagulls and a lone eagle (really) that seemed to be mainly about ownership of a bag of garbage that had fallen off a truck into the street. It was about 8 C as I watched this unfolding. Eventually the truck driver returned to collect his mess and the birds all disappeared except for the crows who plague this entire region in huge numbers. You're welcome, Tourist Board.

M.T. Cranium · 28-02-2013 8:23am

Yesterday's forecast appeared twice and I'm really not sure how -- we'll try for just one appearance today.

Important: Please note legal disclaimer which can be seen at bottom of post 2565 dated 24 July 2012.

Thursday, 28 February, 2013

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, relatively mild with highs about 8 to 10 C. Some lingering fog or mist should dissipate around 10:30 or so. Winds from a northeast to southeast direction for most of the south, light and variable in the north.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals but extensive low cloud and mist or fog, lows about 2-4 C on average, possibly a bit colder where clouds are absent.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, some sunny intervals developing, morning lows 2-4 C and highs 9 to 11 C. Winds light and variable.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, patchy light rain or drizzle developing near south coast, morning lows 0-2 C and afternoon highs 7-9 C.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, morning lows -1 to +1 C and afternoon highs about 7-9 C again, winds becoming somewhat stronger from the southeast.

MONDAY ... Cloudy, drizzle or fog and mist in south, slightly milder with east winds 15-30 km/hr, lows 2-5 C and highs 7-11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Eventually the Atlantic circulation will return and it may not be very mild at that point either, so a sleety or even wintry mix is possible although it seems more likely to be mostly rain in the south and west (by the end of next week), as southeast to east winds become stronger, reaching perhaps 50-70 km/hr with temperatures in the 5-8 C range -- raw but not that unusual. There are signs of another cold spell beyond the weekend of 9-10 March, but it's too far off to have much confidence about it yet.

Forecasts for Britain

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with some sunny intervals further west and north, overcast in most central and eastern districts, highs 6-9 C. Some patchy ice fog this morning may be slow to dissipate in parts of the west Midlands and Severn valley.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, fog or ice fog in some valleys, cloudy in east and south, and lows -3 to +2 C except 3-5 C under cloud in south.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Friday will be somewhat milder but cloudy with highs near 9 or 10 C, then a colder turn is expected as winds back to northeast with drizzle near east coast. Nights will become frosty again, and eventually a sleety mix or wet snow could develop in some central and northern regions, cold rain in south, towards the end of next week, in moderate E-SE winds. It will probably become milder in stages around mid-March. Scotland stands a somewhat greater chance of seeing at least a brief and moderate version of the once threatened northerly next week (but it may just as likely hang up over Iceland and dissipate there as the high seems to have no way of escaping in any direction now).

Forecasts for North America

Northern New England, southern Quebec and eastern Ontario will continue to see heavy wet snow reaching depths of 20-40 cm across the region, but southern New England will have a cold rain with some sleety mixture on hills, while further west the remnants of the old storm will be fragmenting into areas of light sleet or wet snow as far west as Chicago. Further west there will be sunshine and relatively mild conditions, but to the north of the decaying storm a new push of arctic air from a strong high in Canada's eastern arctic will spread -10 C temperatures southward into the northern Great Lakes region and -20 C in the northeast prairies. Somewhat milder towards the Rockies, then very mild and wet on the west coast as a system known locally as the "Pineapple Express" brings heavy rain and mild temperatures from a subtropical air mass that started out near Hawaii. This rain will not hit much further south than Portland Oregon so it will be warm and dry in the southwest states.

My local weather was about the same as the previous day, absent the dramatic aerial battles.

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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