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M.T. Cranium

Friday, 3 June, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

With a bank holiday weekend approaching, the weather looks a little better in the northwest than most regions, with the south not all that promising, however, it may look threatening for rainfall more often than it's actually raining if you follow my drift.

Slow-moving and sluggish weather systems usually bring long intervals of fairly bland but slow-to-change weather, and this seems no exception. The rather heavy rain that developed over parts of Leinster late Thursday is mostly off the east coast now but some remnants of it are feeding back gradually to the west and eventually, after quite a cloudy day in most places, rain could develop in the east, midlands and south later today. Amounts are not likely to be very great, 3-7 mm would be a rough estimate of the range. Further north and near the west coast, it may stay dry either longer, or altogether, and the sun could break through clouds from time to time. Highs today around 17 C, a rather humid feel whether it rains or not.

Overcast with spotty rain tonight, lows 10-12 C. On Saturday, more moisture is slowly spreading west near the south coast. Forecast models show a rather heavy rainfall out over the near Atlantic just off the coast of Cork and Waterford, with some of that spreading some distance inland at times. Conditions are likely to be rather variable with pulses of rainfall separated by brighter spells. Further north, it should stay dry more of the time and eventually one might find themselves in partly cloudy to sunny weather in some parts of Connacht and Ulster. So in general, it will be a more pleasant day further north but also the southern rainfall could be quite hit or miss which means some places in the south could come away with a reasonable day after all. Highs around 18 C but near 20 C in any sunnier locations especially away from coastlines.

Saturday night is likely to be cloudy with some breaks further north, just sporadic light rain at worst in the south, lows 11-13 C.

By Sunday, there will be some breaks in this westward moving drift of cloud and rain (in the south) but another pulse will develop by afternoon and evening, and this time it could become somewhat heavier over south Leinster and parts of Munster with 5-15 mm potential. Further north into central and especially northern regions, a mix of cloud and sun is more likely with only isolated showers. Highs near 16 C in the wetter south, 18-21 C further north.

Monday looks generally more settled in all regions as higher pressure builds up over Ireland briefly. Partly cloudy to sunny skies, perhaps some coastal low cloud and fog in a few spots, lows near 11 C and highs near 21 C.

By Tuesday, the Atlantic finally starts pushing back, and will start by returning all that westward-moving moisture to home base, so anyone who misses it on the weekend might get a second chance to receive some rainfall by Tuesday, with highs around 17 C.

A second and potentially more active frontal system will follow along and arrive late Wednesday, lasting into Thursday. There could be some breaks in the showery regime before that arrives, with stronger winds at times, and chance of thunderstorms as some rather moist and unstable air from the southwest will be drawn in. Highs each day around 20 C, with a humid feel.

Unfortunately this seems to be the pattern that will lock in for a while, fairly frequent unsettled weather that while relatively mild will not allow any really summery warmth to develop for the foreseeable future. Possibly this summer will start out rather unsettled and turn warmer with more sunshine later into July and or August.

My local weather on Thursday was cloudy with a few breaks, and rather warm, with highs near 23 C. Some heavy showers are moving into the province overnight but it hasn't rained here yet.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 4 June, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 June --

-- Temperatures will average near normal for early June.

-- Rainfalls will amount to near average in the north, possibly a bit higher than average in the south.

-- Sunshine will be held down to about half of normal values in the south, more like 80% in the north.

-- Winds light easterly most of this weekend will gradually turn south to southwest and pick up to moderate speeds.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy across the south with intermittent showers, heaviest around west Munster this afternoon. Most central and northern regions will have a partly cloudy day. Highs 16-18 C south, 18-21 C central and north.

TONIGHT will remain rather cloudy in the south with a few light showers, partly cloudy further north, lows 8-10 C.

SUNDAY will be similar, with cloud and outbreaks of rain again by mid-day and afternoon in the southeast, briefly rather heavy near higher terrain in the southeast, then showers spreading into the south midlands later as the system spreads out and loses energy, dying out overnight. Partly cloudy skies further north will tend to become overcast in some central regions with isolated showers. Highs near 17 C south to 21 C north.

MONDAY will see improvements for the south and a similar trend to previous days further north, with partly cloudy, hazy skies expected in all regions, any sunshine will feel warm and the highs will reach about 19-22 C after lows near 10 C.

TUESDAY will bring increasing cloud and rain by afternoon west, evening east. About 10-15 mm can be expected.

The balance of next week looks rather unsettled with several more frontal systems likely to move through, eventually becoming quite breezy to windy at times late in the week. Temperatures will be held down by the cloud and rain but the air masses will be moderately warm, so highs should stay in the range of 17 to 20 C for most, nights quite mild and sometimes misty or foggy.

My local weather on Friday was overcast, misty and sometimes drizzly, with highs around 17 C. A tropical disturbance is bringing heavy rain to southern and central Florida, and may briefly become the first named North Atlantic tropical storm when it moves north of the Bahamas into the gulf stream this weekend. It would be Alex or if not named, tropical depression number one. The eastern Pacific off the west coast of Mexico has already had its first named storm (Agatha) which moved inland in southeast Mexico on May 30th.

For your interest, these are the names to be used (to some extent at least) in the coming Atlantic 2022 season: Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Martin, Nicole, Owen, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobias, Virginie, Walter. The U.S. weather service predicts around 18 named storms, 7 to 10 hurricanes and 3 or 4 of them becoming major. This is similar to most expert opinion and in a forecast contest for amateur weather enthusiasts, a similar range was suggested, the contest mean was 19, 9 and 4. I entered at 20, 10 and 3. Nowadays it seems like a growing trend for weak systems that might have escaped detection or at least naming in past decades to have brief cycles as named tropical storms. That 20,10,3 might have been more like 16,9,3 in past decades, and that's a fairly mundane season close to the thirty year averages. A few people seem to think it could flare up into another very active season with higher numbers. An unusually long La Nina event continues its grip and La Nina tends to be correlated with more active seasons and hot summers in eastern North America generally.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 5 June, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue similar to last report, cloudy, rather wet at times, limited sunshine.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with some brighter intervals in parts of the north. Outbreaks of rain in southern and central counties may become heavier at times, especially over higher parts of inland southeast and south midlands. Risk of a thunderstorm in those areas. Highs 15 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with some mist and fog, as rain gradually tapers off in some southern counties. A few breaks may develop after midnight. Lows around 12 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy with some coastal areas continuing to see extensive low cloud and mist but longer sunny breaks may develop in central and northern counties. Highs 17 to 21 C.

TUESDAY will bring increasing cloud and rain by afternoon and evening, 5-15 mm potential. Lows near 10 C and highs 15-18 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with showers more isolated, until rain arrives later in the day. Lows near 11 C and highs 15-18 C.

THURSDAY could be a soaker, an Atlantic disturbance feeding out of the energy of the tropical system that crossed Florida earlier (and which could briefly become Tropical Storm Alex) will head in towards Ireland from the southwest. No indications yet of anything too severe but 15-25 mm rainfalls would not be surprising. Highs near 16 C.

The pattern after that remains unsettled and takes a somewhat cooler turn with more of a northerly component to the flow for a time. It could eventually lead to blocking with higher pressure getting a chance to take its turn, but details on all that will be hard to estimate for at least another week.

My local weather on Saturday was densely overcast with fog and mist at times, and intermittent rain, rather warm despite that, near 17 C. As mentioned the first tropical system of the season, so far not getting a designation of even "tropical disturbance one" but acting like a tropical storm nevertheless, brought south Florida soaking rainfalls of 150-300 mm and moderate wind gusts in the 60-80 km/hr range. If the structure changes over the Atlantic later today, it could become "Alex" for a day or so. Then what's left of it will track relentlessly onward to reach Ireland on Thursday. Impacts should be moderate rather than severe.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 6 June, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 6-12 June --

-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg above normal with warmest readings around Thursday-Friday.

-- Rainfall will average 50-75 per cent of normal values.

-- Sunshine will average about 75 per cent of normal.

-- The winds will be mostly south to southwest in direction, light to moderate at first, moderate to strong by Thursday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sunshine, sometimes dimmed by higher cloud layers. Isolated showers may develop but many places will remain dry. Highs 17 to 20 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with lows around 10 to 12 C.

TUESDAY will be cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, 5-15 mm potential. Highs 15 to 18 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 18 C.

THURSDAY will be breezy, rather warm and muggy, with light rain at times near Atlantic coasts. Winds increasing to southwest 40-70 km/hr. Lows near 11 C and highs 17 to 20 C.

FRIDAY will also be breezy, rather warm and muggy with winds southwest 50-80 km/hr, some rain at times in Connacht and Ulster. Lows near 13 C and highs near 20 C.

The weekend will become more unsettled with showers more widespread, temperatures falling back slightly to around 17 C.

There are faint signs of a slow improvement as higher pressure begins to build in the Atlantic the following week. This may give longer dry intervals and somewhat more sunshine overall, with brief unsettled intervals from passing frontal systems.

My local weather on Sunday was mostly cloudy with showers and one brief thunderstorm late in the afternoon, highs around 17 C. Tropical Storm Alex did make an appearance and is somewhat stronger than expected with winds near 110 km/hr now northwest of Bermuda. The track has shifted somewhat further north and Ireland will benefit from a warmer southwest flow as a result, with perhaps less rain than earlier indicated, as most of the moisture heads past Ireland towards the Faeroes, however this could change again so there is still some chance of a more direct impact of post-tropical Alex around late Thursday into Friday.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 7 June, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for week of 7 to 13 remain similar with mostly cloudy skies, temperatures warming slowly to Friday then back to current levels, and becoming more windy especially Thursday and Friday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out with some brighter intervals despite mainly cloudy skies, then rain will move in and a few heavier showers will develop across the midlands by afternoon. Rainfalls of 5-15 mm can be expected by evening. Moderate south to southwest winds across the southern counties. Highs about 14 C north to 17 C south.

TONIGHT will bring further showers, moderate southwest winds, lows near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with passing showers, moderate southwest to west winds 40-60 km/hr. Highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY will become rather warm and humid, with a few outbreaks of rain but also some brighter spells especially across the southeast by afternoon. Lows near 12 C and highs 17-21 C. Winds increasing to south-southwest 40-70 km/hr. Some higher gusts possible in Connacht and west Ulster by late in the day.

FRIDAY will continue rather breezy and almost as warm, with lows 14-16 C and highs 17-19 C, skies variable with passing showers, winds southwest at about 50-80 km/hr in exposed western locales and otherwise 40-70 km/hr.

The coming weekend looks reasonable although by no means stunning, with a mixture of cloud and sun, a few passing showers, and near average highs of about 17 C.

That sort of weather is likely to continue most of the following week, a few brief intervals of heavier showers with frontal passages, and a bit of sun each day. Highs will continue to be rather moderate in the 16-19 C range.

Current guidance shows some unusually inclement weather developing around the middle of the month towards the summer solstice (21st June). We'll have to keep an eye on those developments, could fade out of the forecast models before reaching what we call "reliable time" (or the next five minutes as some would say).

My local weather was rather grim all day with passing showers and one briefly heavy thunderstorm, highs only about 15 C. We are hoping the weather will improve as suggested on forecast models as we are going on a short road trip later this week. As a result of that, you may have the services of actual experts for a few days, then it will be back to moi. Oh well.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 8 June, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 June --

-- Temperatures will be slightly above normal by 1 to 1.5 degrees.

-- Rainfall will likely amount to totals somewhat below an average weekly amount but some places in the north and west could approach normal.

-- Sunshine may improve slowly to reach near normal totals with Sunday and Monday looking fairly bright.

-- Moderate, at times strong, southwest winds will prevail.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks across Munster and the south midlands. Rather frequent showers in Connacht, west Ulster and the north midlands, spreading at times into Leinster. Amounts of 5-8 mm typical in those regions. One or two squally showers with blustery winds and hail, possibly thunder. Winds occasionally gusting to 50-60 km/hr from the west-southwest but not all the time, in fact weather today could be very localized with large differences possible. Highs 15 to 17 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy as showers abate, lows 8 to 11 C.

THURSDAY will bring drizzly outbreaks of rain from a warm front during the morning to mid-day hours, followed by a warm southwest flow and variable cloud cover, winds increasing to southwest 50-80 km/hr near exposed coasts. Highs 18 to 21 C.

FRIDAY will remain rather warm and blustery with passing showers most frequent near Atlantic coasts and across the north, winds southwest 50-80 km/hr in exposed locations, lows 12-14 C and highs 17-20 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy and breezy with isolated showers, lows near 9 C and highs near 19 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with longer sunny intervals, lows near 8 C and highs near 20 C.

MONDAY will also bring sunny intervals and similar temperatures, lows about 10 C and highs about 19 C.

by TUESDAY a frontal system may bring occasional rain and gusty winds, highs near 18 C.

The rest of the week should improve again, until about the weekend of the 18th-19th, around which time a cooler northerly flow may set in and bring cloud, light rain and chilly temperatures for the summer solstice (21st).

My local weather improved to mostly sunny skies with large buildups of cumulus cloud at times, followed by an increase in higher cloud in advance of a weak front moving in from the southwest. It was around 21 C for a high. Back tomorrow for one last forecast before taking a brief break, as we continue to track the remnants of Alex now located about 500 miles east of Newfoundland, heading towards the Faeroes. The strongest winds will stay out to sea as it passes by Connacht and Ulster on Thursday night and Friday morning. Nothing extreme even over the open Atlantic, possibly force 10 or around 80-110 km/hr. Large waves and swells are likely to hit the west coast on Thursday and Friday.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 9 June, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue similar, somewhat drier and warmer for several days. There should also be a gradual improvement in sunshine. Moderate southwest winds will continue.

FORECASTS

TODAY will turn quite warm and muggy with outbreaks of rain gradually clearing to the east, some brighter spells by afternoon and evening, winds southwest 40-70 km/hr for most, 50-80 km/hr in exposed coastal areas. About 5-10 mm rainfalls are expected. Highs 17-21 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with a few passing showers in the west and north mainly, lows 12-14 C.

FRIDAY will be blustery at times, with a few showers or outbreaks of rain, as well as some brief sunny spells. Highs 17-20 C. Southwest winds gradually easing by late afternoon.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with a few showers, moderate southwest breezes and lows near 10 C, highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny at times, with showers quite isolated and most places staying dry. Lows near 9 C both days and highs 17-20 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with showers, highs near 19 C.

The rest of next week should improve to mainly sunny skies at times. Temperatures will be in the 17-21 C range.

After the weekend of 18-19 June cooler with more frequent rain as winds turn more northerly.

My local weather was mostly cloudy with a few brief sunny breaks, and highs near 21 C.

Taking a break for several days, will be back on-line middle of next week.

sryanbruen

Friday, 10 June, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

Apologies for the delay on the post. MT asked me to fill in for him whilst he takes a well deserved break.

TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 June --

-- Temperatures are expected to be average to somewhat above average for the time of year but no great deviation. Generally mid-teens by day and upper single figures at night, always warmest in the south of the country. Could become warmer by the end of the forecast period for a brief period of time.

-- Rainfall will be below average for the coming week with mostly dry weather in store courtesy of a ridge building from the south. Slightly wetter towards the northwest closer to weather fronts.

-- Sunshine may be somewhat below average due to a mean southwesterly airflow drawing in a fair amount of cloud to the country at times.

-- Remaining windy and blustery to start the period but calming down as days pass.

TODAY Very blustery southwesterly winds will continue with heavy showers spreading eastwards. Some of these could involve the odd rumble of thunder and hail. Sunny spells in between these showers. Afternoon highs of 15-19C ranging from north to south.

TONIGHT Clear skies will develop, particularly towards the east of the country as shower risk eases off to an extent but expected to continue in the west with some of these merging into longer spells of rain possibly in the northwest towards morning. It will remain windy with lows of 9-12C.

SATURDAY Another windy day with more heavy showers pushing eastwards. Slightly cooler generally than today as the wind veers more west with highs of 14-18C. Wind reducing in strength later in the day.

SUNDAY Shower risk will have diminished greatly becoming well isolated and more sunny spells will be on offer. Westerly breeze will be blustery at first but will calm down again later in the day. Afternoon highs of 14-18C.

MONDAY A similar day to Sunday with well scattered showers and varying sunny spells now and then. Moderate southwesterly winds will freshen by nightime ushering in light rain from the west. Afternoon highs of 14-19C.

TUESDAY Mainly cloudy to overcast with light rain or drizzle pushing eastwards through the day. Feeling rather humid with afternoon highs of 16-19C, possibly 20C if the sun comes out.

WEDNESDAY Cloud will attempt to clear but may stick around for a fair portion of the early day in the north and east with drizzle. Timing as always to be determined closer to the timeframe. Afternoon highs could widely get up to the high teens and touching 20C in any sunshine. Always cooler closer to the north and northwest.

FURTHER OUTLOOK There is the prospect for a ridge to bring improved temperatures for a time towards the end of next week from the Azores but it looks a transient feature at most i.e. temporary. Nonetheless, if Ireland gets a direct hit from the warm air advecting northwards out of Iberia, getting into the mid-20s nearing 25C is not out of the realms of possibility by the Friday. Once this is gone, it is likely we'll go back into unsettled conditions with temperatures down towards average or even below average for June.

sryanbruen

Saturday, 11 June, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 11 to 17 June --

-- Average temperatures for the time of year with a tendency towards above average at the end of the forecast period.

-- Rainfall will be below average for the coming week for most of the country but showers during the weekend and rain mid-week could total up in the north and northwest leading to above average weekly values here.

-- Sunshine may be somewhat below average due to a mean southwesterly airflow drawing in a fair amount of cloud to the country at times, particularly during the early to mid part of next week.

-- Unseasonably windy to start but calming down by mid-week.

TODAY Unseasonably windy again today with gusty southwesterly winds ushering in occasional heavy showers. These will be the heaviest in the northwest with afternoon highs of 14-18C but feeling cooler than that in the strong wind. Sunny spells as always inbetween showers.

TONIGHT Winds will ease generally and clear skies will develop though showers may still occur in the north and west. A couple of mist patches possible inland as the wind falls light. Remaining windy towards northwestern coasts. Minimum temperatures ranging 8-10C.

SUNDAY Sunshine and well isolated showers with moderate to fresh westerly winds. The shower risk will be lighter than previous days. Afternoon highs no change however ranging from 14-18C.

MONDAY Variable sunny spells and cloud cover with isolated showers again. Moderate westerly winds will ease as the day goes along. Afternoon highs still around 14-17C.

TUESDAY Mostly cloudy with rain or drizzle towards the northwest of the country. Could be some sunny spells at times in the east of the country in light southerly breezes. Afternoon highs generally 14-18C but 19C or 20C is possible in the southeast in sunshine.

WEDNESDAY Timing now looks like the east will start off dry with the cloud and rain slowly making its way through the course of Wednesday instead. Any rain will attempt to fizzle out as it does so. Afternoon highs ranging from 14C in the cloud and rain to 20 or 21C in clearer skies towards the south and east. Breezes remaining light in nature.

THURSDAY, FRIDAY Both expected to be relatively warm days with plenty of dry weather. Some scattered showers are still possible. Variable cloud cover but prolonged sunshine likely at times. Afternoon highs are most likely to be widely in the high teens to low 20s but can't rule out closer to mid 20s.

FURTHER OUTLOOK A northerly airflow is likely to develop next weekend bringing temperatures back down to below average for the time of year. How unsettled it gets is dependent on how close the mid-Atlantic ridge that causes the northerly to reside near Ireland and fend off troughs in the flow to our east. Cool and showery weather would be probable. Some runs have developed a full on -NAO pattern with a washing machine of low pressure circulating around Ireland akin to the summers of 2007 and 2012 but these are over the top and a more toned down changeable scenario is likely.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 14 June, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

Thanks to sryanbruen for providing some forecasts while I enjoyed a break.

TRENDS for the week of 14 to 20 June --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg above normal, largest departures expected in the southeast, midlands. It will be near normal at first, warming steadily to Friday, then turning slightly cooler but starting a second warming trend through Sunday-Monday.

-- Rainfalls will be slight in most areas, possibly 25% of normal in a few parts of the north, near zero possibly in the south and east.

-- Sunshine will approach normal values despite a rather cloudy start today and tomorrow.

-- Light southwest winds for most days, somewhat stronger northwest breezes at times this weekend.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather cloudy but the sun may break through higher cloud layers at times. Patchy light drizzle could hit some parts of west Ulster and northwest Connacht, otherwise mainly dry. Highs 16 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast and mild with lows 10 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY, similar in general to today, highs 17 to 19 C.

THURSDAY, clouds will begin to break somewhat to partly cloudy skies, allowing warmer temperatures to develop. Lows 9 to 12 C and highs 18 to 23 C, warmest inland southeast, midlands. Some light showers will pass through a few parts of Connacht and west Ulster, amounts 1-3 mm at most.

FRIDAY will feature some warm hazy sunshine in parts of the south, east and central counties. Lows near 12 C and highs 23 to 26 C. Rather more cloud will prevail in parts of Connacht and Ulster but it may still manage to reach 21 to 24 C inland, near 19 C along exposed Atlantic coasts.

SATURDAY will remain rather warm and partly cloudy in the south, winds gradually turning northwesterly, highs near 23 C. This weak push of cooler air will be more noticeable in Connacht and Ulster, parts of the midlands and north Leinster, with isolated showers possible, highs near 20 C.

By SUNDAY another warming trend will already begin and winds will fall off to light westerly, with variable amounts of cloud produced by a weakly defined warm front, highs 21 to 24 C.

MONDAY to about THURSDAY of next week will be quite warm again with highs generally into the 23-27 C range. Some west coast and northern counties might remain a bit cooler with highs 20-23 C.

The warm spell will end around Friday 24th on current guidance, with a cooler spell expected to finish off the month, sometimes turning unsettled, highs 16 to 19 C by late June.

My local weather on Monday was overcast with fog, light rain and drizzle, and chilly with highs only around 12 C. On the days we were down at the coast it was partly cloudy each day and highs were around 19 C, and our trip down there last Thursday was through occasional heavy rainfall but we did manage to escape the rain for most of the time so it was a pleasant break despite the rain during our travels (we returned late Sunday and it was as cold as 5 C on the highest portions of our route, otherwise 13-16 C, raining on and off most of the way). Quite cold air aloft has prompted a snowfall warning for the highest sections of mountain pass highways in southern BC and persistent heavy rain around Calgary has led to widespread flooding problems there. Locally we have limited flood potential but rivers are slowly reaching low flood stages. Our trip allowed us to see that severe damage to one major highway back in November, with traffic still forced to share the one remaining side of the freeway for about two miles while construction proceeds.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 15 June, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

Quite possibly you heard some changes to the forecasts for the weekend but some of those changes in guidance have been restored to the drier scenario that was discussed here yesterday morning. It does underscore the uncertainty of developments especially for the south, as I will try to explain going forward ...

TRENDS are likely to work out rather warm and dry for most areas, on average, although warmest tomorrow and Friday, then again towards Tuesday of next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see a few more breaks developing in the cloud cover, with some places in the south and east seeing equal amounts of sun and cloud, with highs edging up to around 20 C. It will remain more cloudy in the west and north with isolated patchy drizzle. Highs 15-17 C there.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with a chance to see the full moon at times, quite low in the southern sky. Lows 8 to 12 C.

THURSDAY will bring some intervals of warm, hazy sunshine in parts of the south and east, while staying rather cloudy in the west and north where some outbreaks of light rain will develop, especially close to Donegal Bay. Highs 18-23 C where brighter weather prevails, 16-19 C under more persistent cloud.

FRIDAY will also be pleasantly warm with sunny intervals for most areas, turning rather breezy from the west to northwest 40-60 km/hr by mid-day or afternoon further south, lows around 12 C and highs 21-25 C. Parts of the north may get an earlier cold frontal passage and see temperatures stalling out around 19-20 C. The front is expected to be generally dry but an isolated shower is possible.

SATURDAY will continue rather breezy with variable cloud and a few outbreaks of light rain are possible around Wexford and Waterford; that development along the slow-moving front was looking more ominous in some earlier guidance which is why the forecasts have been swinging back and forth to some extent. Away from the southeast most places should remain dry with variable amounts of cloud and some sunny breaks, lows 12-14 C and highs 17-19 C.

The cycle of forecast model changes also affects SUNDAY which had some risk of seeing that rain spreading back north to some extent, but that looks less than definite again, and in fact the day could turn out relatively dry throughout. Would say the forecast here is rather uncertain though, my best estimate is partly cloudy and around 17 C.

By MONDAY and TUESDAY, a gradual warming trend returns, some cloud may be present but skies will vary from partly cloudy to sunny with brief overcast intervals possible especially near the west coast. Highs may edge back into the low 20s.

Guidance is quite uncertain past mid-week; there could be an earlier cool push from the northwest but other sources indicate that a more prolonged warm and dry spell could develop lasting all week. The most likely outcome would be a compromise partly cloudy near normal scenario with highs not far from 20 C. Even if it's warmer in general, coastal areas would likely stay close to 20 C with sea breezes more likely the warmer it gets.

My local weather was close to record-breaking cold for mid-June; highs barely scraped past 10 C and a bit of drizzle lingered into the morning with reports of snow as low down as 1400 metres. As skies cleared in the evening we could see the fresh snow on local hilltops. Meanwhile, it was a roasting 37 C in Chicago, and forecast models show some further heat wave conditions from time to time in central and eastern regions of North America. We can thankfully look forward to a return to more normal conditions here although not all that warm in the low 20s.

I may update the forecast by afternoon if I feel that another round of guidance changes is shifting the most likely outcome (again).

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 16 June, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 16-22 June --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 3 deg above normal.

-- Rainfall will be rather slight except in parts of Ulster which could see 25 per cent of normal amounts.

-- Sunshine will be near or somewhat above average in the south, central regions, somewhat below average in the north.

-- Light southwest winds will increase to moderate west to northwest briefly around late Friday and Saturday, then back to rather light winds next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will feature a mixture of cloud and sunshine in most areas, while cloud and occasional light rain moves through the northwestern counties. Highs for most 21 to 23 C, 17 to 19 C where cloud prevails.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and mild with lows 11 to 14 C.

FRIDAY will continue sunny, hazy and warm in the south where highs will reach 21 to 25 C. Central regions will see increasing cloud around late morning to afternoon, isolated showers, highs 19 to 22 C. The north will start out overcast with outbreaks of rain, followed by variable cloud and cooler temperatures, highs in the morning near 17 C. Winds in all regions will pick up when a cold front arrives, reaching westerly 40-60 km/hr with higher gusts in some exposed locations in the north.

SATURDAY will be rather cloudy at times, with the best of any sunshine further north. Outbreaks of light rain are possible later in the day near the south coast but most places will remain dry. After overnight lows of 9-12 C, somewhat cooler in the daytime with highs 14 to 17 C north, 15 to 19 C central and south. Moderate northwest breezes at times will tend to die out during the late afternoon and evening.

SUNDAY will become partly cloudy with morning lows 6-9 C and afternoon highs 17-20 C.

MONDAY to THURSDAY will be a generally dry and partly cloudy to sunny interval with temperatures around 18-21 C, possibly a bit higher well inland as there will be cooling sea breezes setting up in an overall light westerly wind flow. Thursday could see increasing cloud and showers in parts of the north and west. Nights generally rather cool with lows 5-9 C in some rural areas, otherwise 7-10 C.

From FRIDAY 24th on, more unsettled with temperatures closer to 17 C. Some improvement will slowly develop after several days of cool northerly winds.

My local weather improved to partly cloudy with the brief sunny intervals allowing temperatures to recover to a more normal reading of 20 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 17 June, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar to previous days' discussions. Another peak of warmth will occur next Thursday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out quite warm in the southern half of the country. A cold front currently moving through Connacht and Ulster will reach a Dublin to Clare line about noon and will reach the south coast mid-afternoon. At present, the front is rather active with intervals of rain and the risk of a brief thunderstorm with gusty winds. This will begin to change to brief intervals of light rain as the front moves further south and a few places near the south coast will probably have a dry frontal passage. Skies ahead of the front are a mixture of blue sky and grey-white altocumulus clouds that will make for a dramatic looking sky. Once the front has cleared south, skies turn partly to mostly cloudy and the temperature falls into the mid-teens from morning to mid-day highs of 21-25 C. Winds westerly 40-60 km/hr with isolated higher gusts, turning northwesterly 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast, generally dry, possibly a few sprinkles of rain near north coast, lows 7 to 10 C.

SATURDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, scattered light showers in parts of Ulster, and cooler with highs 13 to 16 C north, 15 to 18 C south.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with longer sunny breaks developing, lows near 8 C and highs 17 to 19 C.

MONDAY will start out rather cloudy in some areas, breaking to sunny skies later. Lows near 7 C and highs 18 to 20 C.

TUESDAY some light rain could brush Ulster during the morning, otherwise, variable cloud followed by some sunny intervals, lows near 10 C and highs near 20 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy and somewhat warmer, lows near 10 C and highs 19 to 22 C.

THURSDAY will bring hazy sunshine and warm temperatures, lows near 11 C and highs 21 to 24 C.

By FRIDAY a cold front will gradually move in and there may be a similar result to today with moderate gusty winds and a rapid decline in temperatures from a warm morning reading near 22 C to afternoon values closer to 16 C. A few showers may develop too.

The following weekend and Monday 27th are expected to be rather cool and unsettled with northerly breezes and highs in the 15-18 C range. It may warm up gradually after that into the last few days of June.

My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy with one active shower cell that passed around 5 p.m., and it was pleasantly warm at 22 C. Some heavier cells on radar to our west look thundery but they are moving due north over mountain ranges. The severe heat in parts of the Midwest and southeast is slowly easing and a much cooler weekend will follow after thunderstorms in many areas of eastern North America.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 18 June, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 June --

-- Temperatures will average 1-2 deg above normal values, warmest Wednesday-Thursday.

--There will not be much rain even in the north where 25% of normal amounts could fall, mainly on Tuesday. Many central and southern locations will be quite dry.

-- Sunshine will likely keep pace with normal for the time of year (about 5 hours a day) and some places could do better.

--Rather light winds generally, with westerly direction on average.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals. A thicker band of cloud through central counties at present marks a weak frontal boundary that could produce a few spotty showers, trace amounts expected. The slightly cooler air to the north could have one or two isolated showers also, these most likely around higher northern parts of Ulster. Highs in the north 15 to 17 C, south 17 to 19 C. With winds not overly strong, it will be a reasonably pleasant day for outdoor activities.

TONIGHT will remain partly cloudy to overcast, with lows 8 to 10 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with highs 17 to 19 C.

MONDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, except rather cloudy further north. Lows 6-9 C and highs 17-20 C.

TUESDAY some light rain or showers will move through Ulster into parts of Connacht and north Leinster, with amounts of about 3-5 mm possible. This will fragment to light showers and some parts of Munster will remain dry. Some sunny intervals will follow by afternoon. Lows near 10 C and highs 17 to 20 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will see rather warm air moving in, surface temperatures will depend on whether or not cloud from the Atlantic breaks up each day to allow sunshine to boost temperatures. Under cloud it would likely remain around 18 to 21 C, with much sunshine it could easily climb to 23-25 C. Morning lows both days 8-10 C. Some light rain will probably develop across Ulster by late Thursday.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with showers, cooler with highs 16 to 18 C.

Unsettled at times for several more days, and temperatures staying a bit cooler, but some improvements towards end of June.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with a few outbreaks of light rain, clearing for a time in the evening, and reasonably mild at 19 C. Expecting more rain on and off all weekend here.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 19 June, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, warming up through mid-week, then cooler near the weekend of 25th-26th; rather dry, with some rain on Tuesday and a little more by Friday into Saturday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals, becoming more frequent by afternoon. A few scattered light showers may occur in parts of Ulster and (briefly this morning) west Munster. Moderate northwest breezes 30-50 km/hr, highs 16 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will have partly cloudy skies sometimes clearing, and rather chilly lows 6 to 9 C. \

MONDAY will be partly cloudy with highs near 19 C.

TUESDAY some light rain will develop across most of the northern and then central regions, tending to fragment more to light showers as it moves further south. Lows near 10 C and highs near 19 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny, lows near 9 C and highs near 22 C away from cooler coasts, north also not quite as warm. \

THURSDAY will feature warm spells of hazy sunshine with some cloudy intervals, more frequent further north where possibly associated with coastal drizzle. Lows near 11 C and highs 20 to 24 C.

FRIDAY will remain partly cloudy and warm to afternoon in some eastern counties, as cloud and showers move slowly into western regions. Lows near 12 C, highs 17-19 C west, 19-21 C east.

The weekend of 25th-26th is likely to become rather cool and unsettled with highs closer to 17 C. This trend may continue for several days before any improvements return.

My local weather was overcast all day with a few light showers, highs near 17 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 20 June, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 20 to 26 June --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg above normal, warmest around Thursday.

-- Rainfalls will average 25 to 75 per cent of normal, starting to increase somewhat this coming weekend.

-- Sunshine may amount to near average totals.

-- Rather light and variable winds from day to day.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, becoming overcast in the north by evening. Highs 17 to 21 C.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy in the south and east, overcast with light rain at times north and west. Lows 8 to 12 C.

TUESDAY will be rather cloudy with outbreaks of rain heavier near the west coast; on latest guidance amounts have been downgraded for the east, with the west possibly seeing 5-10 mm in places. A general if partial clearing trend will follow. Highs 17 to 19 C. Note that the summer solstice occurs at 10:13 a.m. (0913h UTC).

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with lows 8-11 C and highs 18-22 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny and warm, although hazy, with lows 9-13 C and highs 19-24 C. Some isolated showers may develop in western counties by late in the day.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy and rather warm again in the east, with rain at times further west, highs near 20 C west to 23 C east.

From SATURDAY to about TUESDAY 28th, the weather will be fresher and more unsettled with low pressure making a large-radius loop around Britain and Ireland in a counter-clockwise direction. Some areas of rain or showers will develop each day with a few brighter intervals. Temperatures will be close to 17 C each day, nights around 10-12 C.

My local weather on Sunday was mostly cloudy with a few late sunny breaks, and one or two heavy showers in the morning. The high was around 16 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 21 June, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS unchanged, after a rather slight rainfall today (in most places) fairly dry although cloudy and humid at times, then increasing amounts of rainfall likely from Friday on, albeit not likely to exceed the normal for a week in late June which is around 20 mm.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brief brighter intervals here and there this afternoon. Also some patchy and rather drizzly showers, other than some more robust showers currently noted in parts of west Kerry. Those will soon slide south into the Atlantic, so most places will have to rely on other sources such as the weak frontal trough now in north Leinster, which looks to have only 1-3 mm potential. Highs 16-18 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast and mild, humid with lows 11-13 C.

WEDNESDAY will be cloudy to start, then brighter intervals may appear if the sun can work its way through low cloud layers, where it does highs will easily reach 22 C, otherwise readings about 18-20 C and feeling rather close with the humidity.

THURSDAY will have somewhat better chances of seeing sunny intervals but there will likely be some cloudy intervals in most places too, light showers could begin in the north and west late in the day. Rather warm and humid. Lows near 13 C and highs 20 to 23 C.

FRIDAY will stay rather warm and humid, but showers in the west and north will gradually spread further east. Lows near 15 C and highs 19 to 22 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY are looking unsettled with showers, highs 17 to 19 C. Mild overnight readings likely, 12-14 C.

Most of next week looks a bit unsettled also, but there may be some slight improvements into early July. Nothing remarkable showing up on longer range charts, could be worse and could be better.

My local weather very much in that frame also, some sunny breaks, passing showers, and dramatic looking skies at times without any actual delivery of active weather. Highs near 20 C and rather humid by local standards. The big event of the day was an appearance on the main street of a large brown bear with two very small cubs. They were a bit out of range for a good photo sadly.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 22 June, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 June --

-- Temperatures will begin to cool after tomorrow, and will be close to seasonal averages the rest of the seven-day period, so the initial warmth will be shown in overall averages near 1.5 above normal.

-- Rainfalls will begin to collect most of a normal amount or perhaps a bit more than normal in parts of the west which could see 50% above by Tuesday.

--Sunshine will be infrequent in most places and may only reach half to two-thirds of normal amounts, closer to 3 hours a day than the usual 5-6.

-- Winds rather light at first will be more moderate starting around Saturday but rarely exceeding 50 km/hr in gusts.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy at first with a few patches of drizzle, then it may slowly brighten to partly cloudy and warm by afternoon, highs 20-23 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast and rather muggy with lows 12-15 C.

THURSDAY will be rather cloudy too at times, but perhaps with a bit more sunshine in the southeast, isolated showers developing during the afternoon mostly in the Ulster-Leinster-Connacht border counties. Highs 21 to 24 C.

FRIDAY will become generally overcast and rain will begin before mid-day in the west and some parts of the southeast, then this light rain will spread into other regions by afternoon. About 5 mm is expected by evening. Lows near 15 C and highs 18-21 C.

SATURDAY will be a fresher day with outbreaks of rain and a few brighter spells too, about 5-10 mm rain can be expected, with lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C.

SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy with showers, and risk of thunderstorms, lows near 12 C and highs 15 to 17 C.

MONDAY will continue partly to mostly cloudy with occasional rain, lows near 11 C and highs 14 to 16 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY, little change, overcast with a few breaks, occasional rain each day, highs near 17 C.

At the moment the first third of July is not looking much different either.

My local weather was sunny with cloudy intervals and warm, the high reaching 24 C. It finally looks and feels like summer and the snow is disappearing from the higher peaks we can see from here, although it's still present above 1800 metres elevation. Bears found somewhere new to explore today.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 23 June, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, the warmth will fade to cooler temperatures, increasingly unsettled with rain and occasional moderate southerly to southwesterly winds.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out cloudy in some areas, with a hazy sunshine slowly developing, warming up temperatures further to around 23-24 C inland, near 20 along some coasts. It may stay somewhat cooler in parts of coastal Connacht and Ulster. A few isolated showers could develop.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with a few showers in the west mainly, and muggy, lows 13-15 C.

FRIDAY will see rain slowly spreading further east, but heavier pulses of rain could develop in Connacht with local rainfall potential of 20-40 mm. Most other locations could see 10-20 mm. Cooler and fresher once the rain begins, highs near 19 C.

SATURDAY will bring some rather blustery south to southwest winds especially over Connacht and west Ulster where gusts to 80 km/hr are possible. Rainfalls of 10-20 mm combined with the wind will make this quite an unpleasant day in many areas. There could be some spots in the southeast that escape the worst of this and eke out a somewhat more agreeable day with only showers and the winds 30-50 km/hr. Highs for all areas around 15 C.

SUNDAY will also be unsettled, the strong winds should ease, and rain will become more showery. Lows near 10 C and highs 14-17 C.

MONDAY will be rather wet in the north and will improve slightly in the south to partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows near 9 C and highs near 16 C.

TUESDAY will see the return portion of the looping low pressure coming back for a second go round, and another interval of heavy rain is possible in the west, 10-30 mm rainfall potential, lows near 8 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

There likely will not be great improvements going forward towards the end of June and first week of July, although it could warm up somewhat.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy and warm with a few showers around, all of them managing to miss our location. The high was around 24 C. We are looking at a hotter period of weather here next week; it may hit 30 C but nothing too severe is predicted as we approach the anniversary of last year's historic "heat dome" when we reached the low 40s for the last four days of June and first three in July.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 24 June, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 24-30 June 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average near or slightly below normal values, more so during the daytime.

-- Rainfalls will average 50 to 75 per cent above normal values in western counties, near average in the east. There will be some outbreaks of heavy rain also spreading into the east late in the interval and on 1st of July the current guidance shows very heavy rainfalls in Leinster but this is subject to revisions.

-- Sunshine will average only 25 to 50 per cent of normal; it will be very cloudy for late June.

-- Winds occasionally moderate to strong south to southwest. 

FORECASTS

TODAY any bright spells this morning in the east will fade behind increasing cloud followed by rain, with that rainfall already well underway in western counties. Some embedded thunderstorms could produce locally heavy amounts especially over higher parts of the south-central counties to Connacht; totals today will range from 5-10 mm east coast to 20-35 mm west. Some intervals of blustery southeast winds may develop, and highs will occur early, 18-21 C, after which temperatures may drop off gradually.

TONIGHT further rainfalls of 10-20 mm, strong southerly winds at times near Atlantic coasts and some distance inland to central counties, lows near 10 C. 

SATURDAY will be a blustery and cool, wet day, with outbreaks of rain continuing, winds rather strong south to southwest 40-70 km/hr at first, risk of higher gusts near Atlantic coast. About 10-20 mm further rainfall expected, highs 12-16 C. 

SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy with showers or intervals of rain, 5-10 mm additional. Lows 8-10 C and highs 13-17 C. 

MONDAY some bursts of heavier rain resuming over the west, showery further east, moderate south to southwest winds, lows 7 to 9 C and highs 12 to 16 C. 

TUESDAY heavy rain clearing east, some brighter intervals developing. Lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C. 

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY look unsettled but could have some brief brighter intervals between showers, highs near 17 C. 

FRIDAY (1st of July) some guidance shows a heavy rainfall from a new system that will impact the eastern counties with a potentially heavy rainfall of 20-40 mm. Keeping an eye on this, guidance may change well before the time, so just a heads up at this point. Temperatures would be cool, around 16 C. 

The first week to ten days of July now look a little more promising with a trend back towards dry and settled conditions evident.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and a bit cooler with a constant strong west to northwest breeze, highs near 17 C. Clear now for a change, might go out and check the night sky as we have hardly had any views of it for many months here. 

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 25 June, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

Going to a blog format today, the trends remain about the same as stated yesterday. 

TODAY, low pressure drifting off the northwest coast is feeding in clusters of heavy showers, and this will probably intensify later in the day as currently a lot of the most active weather is on the seaward side of that low ready to rotate around and track over Ireland later on. So there could be a few breaks in the overcast this morning in parts of the south and east, with more extensive showers in the north and west. Later that might change to a more general coverage of the entire land mass of Ireland with outbreaks of rain. During any rain, temperatures will be quite low for this time of year (around 12 C) but in any breaks the temperature could be as high as perhaps 15 or 16 C. Throughout there will be a moderate and at times strong southwest wind 40-70 km/hr. That should gradually abate overnight. 

TONIGHT further showers will occur and by midnight some places will have had 20-30 mm of rain, others just 5-10. Overnight lows will drop a few degrees to around 9 or 10 C. 

SUNDAY is going to remain similar as the low is only going to drift away to the north very gradually, but there could be some slight improvements in parts of the south by afternoon. Highs will reach about 14 to 17 C. A further 5-15 mm of rain is likely. 

MONDAY there could be a brief break as the weekend low breaks away to the north, while a new frontal system approaches from the west. It will definitely become wet in western counties by afternoon, but the east could have a longer break before they see further rainfall. Highs on Monday will be about 15 C west to 18 C east. 

TUESDAY the remnants of the front will slowly cross all other parts of the country bringing an interval of steady rain that will gradually clear from the west by afternoon. Rather breezy at times with that, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C. 

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY look quite unsettled too, at least the threat of something particularly heavy on Friday has been somewhat downgraded but a more general unsettled theme has replaced it so in total there could be almost as much rainfall just spread out over several days (eventually another 20-30 mm seems likely; by Friday 1st of July, any rainfall deficits should be largely overcome by all this rain expected during the week). Temperatures seem likely to stay in the same range of 15-17 C by day and 8-11 C at night. 

The first week to ten days of July look just a bit better than this coming week, although by no means a complete reversal at this point, just more average than particularly unsettled. Temperatures may come up a degree or two and average closer to 19 C for the daytime highs.

I am still thinking that this summer will slowly improve and that August might be a fairly good month. 

My local weather was a mixture of cloud and sunshine, the real heat has not quite built in yet so the high was about 22 C but it's predicted to reach the low 30s by Sunday and Monday. That is melting the unseasonably late mountain snow packs and bringing an unusual threat of what would normally be spring flooding from snow melt in early summer. Hopefully this warm spell will allow that to be gradual enough that the results are not too extreme. In any case, locally it is not an issue as there are only a few very small creeks around us and they are all in deep ravines or underground. The main weather hazard here is windstorms rather than flooding. 

Well then, have as nice a weekend as possible under the circumstances. There may be enough breaks in the rain to make it tolerable. 

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 26 June, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 26 June to 2 July --

-- Temperatures will continue 2 to 3 deg below normal values, most of the chill coming during daytime hours as nights will be closer to average.

-- Rainfalls will be 25 to 50 per cent above normal and somewhat heavier in the east for the next few days. A drying trend will begin around the 1st of July though.

-- Sunshine will be well below average at first, possibly more generous on 1st and 2nd, the blend should be around 75 per cent of normal.

-- Rather windy at times from the southwest to west. This tendency will fade out later in the period.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be overcast with rain to start in eastern counties, and winds rather strong from the south to southwest at 40-70 km/hr. Further west, variable cloud with frequent showers redeveloping, some of these may become thundery. Highs 12 to 16 C. About 10 to 20 mm further rain can be expected.

TONIGHT showers will gradually ease off and become isolated, lows near 8 C.

MONDAY will have some morning bright spells in a break between systems, while the west will cloud over and see rain becoming rather heavy in the afternoon and evening. That will reach Leinster by evening. Highs around 15 to 17 C.

TUESDAY the rain will gradually clear east and the skies will become partly cloudy. Rather breezy southwest 40-60 km/hr. About 15-25 mm rainfalls through this Mon-Tues event. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will be rather cloudy also with frequent showers, about 10 mm of rain each day, lows near 9 C and highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY (1st of July) now looking less ominous (in part because the evolution has sped up) so that it may see the transition away from this unsettled weather to brighter, dry weather for several days. Partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C.

SATURDAY to MONDAY (2-4 July) currently looking like a much nicer stretch with sunshine and highs in the low 20s.

It may become somewhat more unsettled again after that break, but the pattern looks rather "average" rather than this current spell of particularly unseasonable conditions.

My local weather was more or less postcard perfect sunshine and a few clouds with low humidity but a warm high of about 27 C. We're supposed to be into the low 30s for a few days now with the low humidity continuing.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 27 June, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue similar, rather wet and cool this week, improving after Friday 1st, a dry spell of several days to follow.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out sunny with cloudy intervals in eastern counties, with isolated showers possible. Cloud and rain will soon move into western counties and that rain could become rather heavy at times this afternoon. Highs 17-19 C east, 15-17 C west.

TONIGHT will be breezy with rain, heavy at times, 10-25 mm amounts are expected. Lows near 12 C.

TUESDAY will bring a gradual clearing from west to east, rain ending in Leinster during the morning, and there may be some sunshine at times by afternoon with highs 16 to 18 C.

WEDNESDAY will be cloudy with occasional rain, some heavy showers in the south. Lows near 9 C and highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY will also be cloudy with showers, lows near 9 C and highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY will become partly cloudy and showers will be more isolated and mostly confined to the inland north. Lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C.

The weekend of 2-3 July and most of the following week are looking more settled and highs could be a bit above average in the low 20s. This does not look like settling into a long dry spell and further unsettled intervals seem likely to come and go in July but the trends are mildly encouraging anyway.

My local weather has turned quite hot now with sunshine and low humidity, highs near 32 C. We are reminded that a year ago we had the unprecedented heat dome and 42 C so this is just our normal summer heat this time.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 28 June, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 28 June to 4 July --

-- Temperatures will average close to normal with a slow increasing trend towards 2-3 above normal next week.

-- Rainfalls will continue to be frequent to about Friday then a drier trend will develop; that will mean that seven-day totals will be near normal but almost all of it comes by Friday so twice normal rates to then.

-- Sunshine will also improve gradually and may reach almost normal totals if next week turns sunny.

-- Moderate southwest winds will prevail.

FORECASTS

TODAY will continue wet this morning in the east, then drier and partly cloudy skies further west will spread in, with a few more showers likely after a few sunny breaks mid-day. Winds south to southwest 40-70 km/hr. Highs near 18 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast with occasional showers. Lows 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and showers or periods of rain, about 10 mm expected, with highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY will be similar, mostly cloudy, occasional showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with showers more isolated, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.

SATURDAY will also be partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly in northern counties, lows 7-10 C and highs 17-19 C.

By SUNDAY, sunny with cloudy intervals, lows near 9 C and highs near 20 C.

NEXT WEEK looks promising with at least some sunshine each day, very little rainfall expected, and highs into the low or even mid 20s by later in the week. That better weather will not last indefinitely but the more unsettled regime expected for the week beyond next week is not looking as rainy or cool as this week, fairly close to normal mid-summer conditions.

My local weather continued sunny and hot on Monday with a high of 34C; some high cloud spread in at times. We're expecting this hot spell to end with thunderstorms later Tuesday so rather looking forward to a bit of active weather.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 29 June, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain essentially the same as discussed yesterday, a very slow improvement from cool and sometimes wet weather towards a dry and seasonably warm pattern by middle of next week. It may take a couple of oscillations in the pattern to completely remove this upper level trough but models continue to show much higher pressure building in from the Atlantic next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy at first with isolated showers mainly west and north. Later on, these will expand in coverage and utilize the daytime heating to develop into more robust showers with some thunderstorms possible in the midlands. Highs 16 to 18 C. About 5-15 mm rainfall expected.

TONIGHT will once again see the daytime showers reduced to a few isolated sprinkles, rather cool for late June, lows 6 to 9 C. Ground fog or mist will be fairly widespread by dawn.

THURSDAY will become overcast again with more heavy showers possible, isolated thunderstorms. Highs 16 to 18 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy with a few showers redeveloping, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with somewhat more sunshine than previous days, still a few showers but mainly confined to the the northern counties, lows near 7 C and highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will probably continue in the partly cloudy mode with a few showers around, and there could be one last frontal passage to come on Monday before that high finally takes over mid-week. Highs 18-20 C. By midweek with the longer sunny intervals, highs 20-23 C, nights could be quite cool briefly before sunrise but that happens so early nowadays that it should be nicely warmed up when most people are out and about. The pattern beyond that dry spell continues to look rather "average" for mid-July, nothing very far from seasonal normals.

My local weather produced one last day of sunshine and heat, a few storms developed and looked intense on radar in a few spots but they sailed past us on either side during the afternoon with the occasional very strong wind gust near 80 km/hr despite the cells being 10-20 kms away. It looks like parts of southern Alberta will get the worst of these storms as they cross the Rockies. Meanwhile, a more organized second front is heading in overnight from the Pacific and it should be quite a bit cooler here for several days now after hitting 30 C again on Tuesday.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 30 June, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 30 June to 6 July 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, slightly cooler at first, to about 2 deg above normal by late next week.

-- Further rainfalls will be about half to three-quarters of a normal amount for seven days; it will become mostly dry after Monday except in parts of the north.

-- Sunshine will gradually improve and may reach at least normal amounts by end of the seven days although it will be rather cloudy at times to begin.

-- Moderate westerly winds will dominate.

FORECASTS

TODAY the most persistent showers will be near the east coast this morning. Once those slowly move out to sea, a partly cloudy regime further west will replace the rain for a time, then all areas can expect a buildup of scattered and in a few places thundery showers, rather hit or miss in terms of rainfalls, 2 to 5 mm will be typical. Highs 17 to 19 C.

TONIGHT mostly cloudy with a few more showers, partial clearing by morning, lows near 9 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few showers, some heavy. Highs 16 to 18 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy and the showers will be more isolated at first and generally mostly confined to Connacht, midlands and Ulster. Some spread further south in this activity may occur by afternoon. Lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy with longer sunny intervals and lows near 7 C and highs 17 to 20 C. Any showers brief and isolated in parts of the north.

MONDAY will see a weak disturbance with scattered showers but probably rather hit or miss, some sunny breaks likely too. Lows near 8 C and highs around 20 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy in the south and some central regions, rather overcast in the north with some light rain or drizzle near coasts as a warm front slowly pushes past Connacht and Ulster. Likely remaining dry in many areas though. Lows near 8 C north and east to 12 C south and west, highs 17 to 22 C.

Warmer weather will slowly develop as high pressure drifts in from the Atlantic. Highs could reach 22-25 C later next week and towards the weekend of the 9th and 10th. This will reverse as gradually as it develops, apparently, with weak disturbances slowly eroding the high pressure and bringing brief showery intervals but it looks likely to stay rather warm when that happens (low 20s at least).

My local weather turned mostly cloudy and there was one brief thunderstorm around late afternoon with highs reaching 24 C. Two tropical systems in the Gulf of Mexico and near the coast of Colombia both threaten to intensify and the southern one could become a weak hurricane near Nicaragua in a few days; the Gulf system would likely move inland later today over south Texas.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 1 July, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue similar, a gradual improvement into next week ...

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy, with showers becoming more frequent by afternoon. About 5-10 mm rain can be expected. Highs 16 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy at times, with showers ending. Lows near 9 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with just a few isolated showers, mainly in northern counties. Highs near 17 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny, with lows near 8 C and highs near 20 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 20 C.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY of next week should see a gradual warming trend and at least some sunshine each day, more so away from a rather cloudy northern third where warm frontal drizzle may brush the coasts at times mid-week. Highs should gain about one degree each day and end up in the 23-26 C range by late in the week. The following weekend appears likely to remain warm and dry as the high building in is quite strong and will take a while to break down. The following week will see that breakdown process in southerly winds but it will likely be a warmer unsettled period than this past week with some summertime thunderstorm potential at times (most likely towards end of the week or around mid-July). My long-range outlook for July is generally rather warm and with a somewhat dry theme especially in the south and east, but there will be potential for some decent thunderstorms if you enjoy that sort of thing.

My local weather on Thursday was very pleasant, sunny with a few clouds, and moderately warm at 25 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 2 July, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 July --

-- Temperatures will slowly warm up by about 1 deg per day all the way through to next weekend. That will make the average for the week about 1-2 deg above normal, but starting off a bit cooler than average today.

-- Rainfall is just about done, although drizzly showers will continue for today and then just isolated showers with areas of light rain in the far north to mid-week, and a dry spell likely towards end of the week. Total rainfalls will only be around 5-10 mm for most places.

-- Sunshine will improve at the same rather sedate pace as the temperatures; there won't be a lot of sun today although perhaps a bit brighter than yesterday, then increasing amounts, at least away from the cloudier northern counties through mid-week. Eventually some southern locations could exceed the normal amount.

-- Winds rather light to moderate westerly on average, becoming quite light and variable as it warms up later in the week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks. There will be a few drizzly showers around, 1 to 3 mm seems to be the most likely outcome, with central and northern counties seeing a bit more persistent drizzle than the south. Highs 16 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with drizzle at times, then partial clearing will develop after midnight. Lows near 10 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy, any remnant showers will be brief and mainly confined to north Connacht and west Ulster. Moderate westerly breezes may be more noticeable. Highs 17 to 20 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers in parts of the north, generous sunny intervals in parts of the south. Lows near 8 C and highs near 21 C south, 18 C north.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will be similar days, mostly cloudy in the north, partly cloudy and a bit warmer in the south. Some light drizzly rain could brush parts of the Donegal Bay region. Lows around 9 C and highs around 22 C south, 18 C north.

From THURSDAY on, high pressure will be quite close to Ireland and there could be a fair amount of sunshine away from any cloudy coastlines where low cloud or sea fog are prone to drift in and out from time to time. Quite warm inland, highs 22 to 25 C through the weekend of the 9th-10th. Still some patchy drizzle in the far north at times but likely to remain dry in most places. Light and variable winds with sea breezes developing.

This better stretch of weather could persist for a while with any luck, as the high is strong and slow-moving, but eventually it will probably break down to somewhat more unsettled conditions after a week or so of fine weather. So just one more really mediocre day to go now, and perhaps not that bad in places, and on to an improving trend.

My local weather is going in the opposite direction, we had several fine and very warm days, now there's a lot more cloud and scattered although weak showers and distant rumbles of thunder at times. We're expecting a more sustained rainfall by Sunday here. Temperatures are back down to the low 20s from the low to mid 30s we enjoyed for several days.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 3 July, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead remain the same as discussed yesterday, gradual improvement to warmer, drier conditions with more widespread sunshine by end of the interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with brief sunny intervals and isolated rather spotty showers, trace to 2 mm amounts will be typical. Highs 17 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, lows near 9 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy with a few showers mostly in northern and later central counties. Amounts of rain expected to be slight. Highs 18 to 20 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will be similar days, overcast in parts of the north with occasional light rain or drizzle mostly confined to east Ulster and parts of north Connacht, north Leinster, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C. More breaks in the cloud further south and warmer there, lows near 10 C and highs 20 to 23 C.

THURSDAY to about MONDAY (7th to 11th) will bring a warm, dry spell with better prospects for sunshine in the south and east, but some sunny intervals even in the cloudier north. Highs 22 to 25 C in parts of the inland south and east, 19 to 22 C in the north and west.

This warm spell may gradually become more unsettled at times towards the middle or end of the following week, or around mid-July. With temperatures expected to remain quite warm, this may introduce some summery thunderstorms to the outlook. Highs will most likely edge up further with time too, and could reach the high 20s at times.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny with increasing high cloud, as rain edges closer from the southwest; it was quite warm (27 C) but the next two days look wet and therefore rather cool.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 4 July, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 July --

-- Gradually turning warmer, average 2 to 3 deg above normal (starting near normal today)

-- Generally dry apart from spotty drizzle, slight rainfalls expected in northern counties mid-week.

-- Slowly improving sunshine although rather cloudy at first, average overall.

-- Light to moderate westerly breezes will die out later in the week, sea breeze regimes will set up in warmer weather expected then.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, more frequent away from the Atlantic coast and the north. Some spotty drizzle at times and slightly heavier rain possible in north Connacht and west Ulster. Highs 17 to 20 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast, lows 10 to 12 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will both be partly cloudy in the south, mostly cloudy further north with outbreaks of light rain near the north coast. Lows both days 11 to 13 C, highs near 22 C south, 20 C central, 18 C north.

THURSDAY to the WEEKEND, a little more sunshine each day, as the cloud slowly begins to break up, and an end to the light rain in northern counties. Highs near 24 C could climb a bit higher by Sunday, and overnight lows will remain in the 10 to 13 C range. Some local sea fog or low cloud could drift inland at times and winds will be light and variable allowing sea breezes to develop.

The outlook for the following week is for very warm temperatures to continue and possibly even rise a few more degrees at times, eventually some inland locations could be recording high 20s to near 30 C, and there is no obvious sign of a particular end to this developing very warm spell. It will however be prone to the occasional thundery outbreak and probably won't remain absolutely dry all week (11-15 July or more so beyond that).

My local weather on Sunday was fairly placid for the morning, overcast and near 20 C, then heavy thunderstorms rolled in from the south and lasted several hours, followed by a return to the more placid conditions by evening. I estimated 20-30 mm rain in a two hour span and numerous close lightning strikes, but we never lost power.