Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 29-08-2022 06:31AM

Monday, 29 August, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue similar to previous reports, near normal to slightly warmer than average temperatures, not much rainfall expected until later in the week, then turning rather heavy in parts of the south and west. Rather cloudy but with some sunshine at times.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy and warm in most areas, highs 21-24 C, overcast with occasional light rain in Ulster, north Connacht and north Leinster, highs 16-18 C there. Somewhat cooler (17-19 C) due to onshore breezes in eastern counties too. Where rain does fall in the north, about 3-5 mm is expected.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with a few breaks, lows 10 to 12 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy and rather warm again, highs 19 to 22 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with lows 8 to 11 C and highs 18 to 21 C.

THURSDAY mostly cloudy, some outbreaks of light rain expected, lows 9 to 12 C and highs 18 to 21 C.

FRIDAY variable cloud, some outbreaks of moderate to heavy rainfall, 15-25 mm potential in some parts of Munster and the midlands. Lows near 13 C and highs 18-20 C.

From that point onward, low pressure areas will continue to approach from the southwest, but will tend to be blocked for much further progress northeast by distant high pressure over Scotland and the North Sea. The net result will be some outbreaks of rain across the south and west mostly, variable cloud further north, staying a bit warmer than average in southeast breezes with highs often around or just above 20 C.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny with afternoon cloudy intervals, getting a bit warmer again at 24 C. Hot sunshine expected most of the week as another strong upper level ridge builds over our region.

M.T. Cranium · 30-08-2022 06:34AM

Tuesday, 30 August, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain generally dry and warm to end of this week, with rain starting to become a bigger player by Friday and next weekend. Temperatures will be 1 to 2 deg above normal but will be falling to rather cool values near the weekend. Sunshine more likely today than most other days.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals and warm in many areas, highs 22 to 24 C. More cloud and some light drizzly rain at times can be expected in Ulster. Highs there 17 to 20 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy, hazy and mild with lows 10 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with somewhat more cloud likely by afternoon and evening, highs 19 to 22 C.

THURSDAY will bring increasing cloud and some scattered light showers, lows near 12 C and highs near 19 C.

FRIDAY variable cloud and outbreaks of rain, rather heavy in some central and northern counties. Lows near 14 C and highs 18-20 C.

SATURDAY further showers or outbreaks of rain, lows near 12 C and highs 16 to 18 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and cool with some rain at times, lows near 11 C and highs 15 to 17 C.

Next week, low pressure areas will be trying to move north from the Biscay region of the Atlantic towards the Irish Sea. Some will manage to break through and a persistent frontal zone over north, central and east Ulster and southwest Scotland could lead to very heavy rainfalls there, guidance indicates 50-100 mm or more. A second zone that may see moderately heavy 40-70 mm rainfalls would be across parts of the midlands and even the inland southeast. These trends will be monitored as the events are still over a week away. But it seems fairly predictable that the week will be unsettled with temperatures around 17-20 C most days.

My local weather was sunny and rather warm again on Monday with a high near 25 C. A heat wave is developing for the rest of the week here.

M.T. Cranium · 31-08-2022 06:35AM

Wednesday, 31 August, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 31 Aug to 6 Sep 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal but it will be turning cooler, so the first few days will be 2-3 above normal, the last few below normal.

-- Rainfall will slowly begin to reappear late this week and over the weekend, increasing to locally heavy rainfalls next week. Some parts of the midlands could eventually see twice their normal amounts.

-- Sunshine may be fairly limited after today.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny to partly cloudy, with a trend towards overcast skies later. Highs 18 to 22 C.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with lows 12 to 14 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with some sunny breaks, isolated showers, highs 17 to 21 C.

FRIDAY, heavy rain at times especially in Connacht, midlands and inland southeast (15-25 mm). Lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

SATURDAY occasional rain, cool, breezy (southeast 40-70 km/hr). Lows near 10 C and highs 16 to 18 C.

OUTLOOK ... frequent heavy rainfalls may develop in a regime dominated by Atlantic low pressure. Temperatures rather cool to about Friday 9th then warming as a dry spell develops, possibly returning to the 20s for a time.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and hot with a scorching high of 36 C. We have a few more days like that ahead.

Please note, Thursday 1 Sep forecast is likely to appear closer to 0830h possibly, as I'm off on a road trip for the day here.

M.T. Cranium · 01-09-2022 07:38AM

Thursday, 1 September, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 1-7 Sep 2022

-- Temperatures will average about 1 deg below normal values with today somewhat warmer, then values as low as 3-4 deg below normal at times by this weekend.

-- Rainfalls will increase to 50-75 per cent above normal values.

-- Sunshine will be rather infrequent after today. The total for the week may be close to normal but that will require a clearing trend to be quite generous towards the end of the interval, adding to today's good start.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny at first in some districts, then partly cloudy to overcast later, with isolated showers. Highs 17 to 21 C.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with some outbreaks of light rain, lows 8 to 10 C.

FRIDAY will bring outbreaks of rain, of variable intensity, some regions seeing 5-15 mm. Highs 17 to 19 C.

SATURDAY will be rather wet in most places, with moderate southeast winds developing 40-70 km/hr, lows near 12 C and highs near 16 C.

SUNDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud and some further showers, heavier rain redeveloping by Sunday night into Monday. Both days will have lows near 12 C and highs 15-17 C. By MONDAY there could be some outbreaks of heavy rain accompanied by strong southeast winds of 50 to 80 km/hr.

TUESDAY this rainfall event could be continuing for at least part of the day with temperatures near 15 C, total two-day rainfalls may be in the range of 30 to 70 mm. Watch for updates on this developing situation.

The low producing all this rain and wind will slowly move away around Wednesday and some clearing may follow. After that, remnants of a tropical storm that is expected to form soon near the Azores will reach Ireland, with perhaps moderate confidence at best this appears to be likely by Friday 9th. The impacts of this tropical remnant should be regarded as basically unknown this far in advance, we'll slowly be getting some idea of what it could produce and that might not be too much so I would not be overly concerned especially given that a stronger system of non-tropical origin is more likely to come and go first.

I was asked about the Electric Picnic weather prospects and those would appear to be variable at best with the risk of some prolonged periods of rain and briefer intervals of heavy rain and strong winds. I would say hope for the best and prepare for the worst in this situation. Saturday might be the worst of the three days.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny to partly cloudy and hot, with a weak outbreak of heat-related showers and thunderstorms that produced a brief interval of gusty winds and a few raindrops basically not even settling the dust that was blowing around for a brief time. Other than that evening outburst, we enjoyed some fairly good weather for a day trip which was (not entirely by accident) into cooler regions to our north where some lakes kept temperatures closer to 30 C than the 37 C that was reported here in our absence.

M.T. Cranium · 02-09-2022 06:34AM

Friday, 2 September, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 Sep 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 deg below normal values.

-- Rainfall will be 50 to 100 per cent above normal, heaviest in the southwest.

-- Sunshine will be quite limited and may struggle to reach 50% of normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring increasing cloud after some bright intervals this morning especially in eastern counties. Rain will follow onto the west coast this evening. Highs 17 to 21 C.

TONIGHT rain will spread gradually further east, probably reaching the east coast late during the overnight hours. Lows 8 to 11 C.

SATURDAY some further outbreaks of rain heaviest in the inland southeast. Cool to raw southeast winds at times especially near Irish Sea coasts. Highs only 13 to 16 C east, 16 to 19 C west as some breaks in the overcast can be expected there. Total rainfalls 10-20 mm.

SUNDAY will bring some breaks in the unsettled weather at times, with variable skies and some further outbreaks of rain, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C. Heavy rain and strong southeast winds will develop late in the day across the south coast and some parts of the west.

MONDAY will bring the worst of this unsettled spell, with intervals of strong winds and heavy rains especially early in the day and over parts of Munster. Further north and east it might not be so bad although a few intervals of rain and wind may break away and spread in there also. Lows of about 9 C and highs 15 to 17 C, winds peaking southeast 60-90 km/hr at times near southwest coast, 40-70 km/hr more widespread.

TUESDAY will bring some further outbreaks of rain and variable cloudiness, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.

From WEDNESDAY 7th to about SATURDAY 10th, a somewhat more settled interval is possible as northeast winds push in with high pressure well to the north, and what is expected to be remnants of Hurricane Danielle off to the southwest. Rather cool in this interval, highs only 15 to 18 C, overnight lows 7 to 9 C.

Around SUNDAY 11th and MONDAY 12th remnants of Danielle may be near the south coast, looping around and eventually pushing further east along the south coast. Some guidance suggests a potential for heavy to excessive rainfalls near the south coast (although the worst impacts are just about off the coast) so this interval will need to be watched closely for actual developments, I wouldn't want to be too specific this far in advance when model guidance is not that reliable, but for what it's worth, the GFS model does show 100-150 mm rainfalls during this interval although as mentioned the core of that just off the south coast. The margin of error at this distance is certainly larger than the entire land mass of Ireland meaning that storm's impact if correctly assessed could fall anywhere over Ireland or on the other hand could miss further to the south. There is also the question of whether the intensity is correctly estimated.

If this very wet and windy spell does materialize, it would likely be followed by slowly improving weather for several days, near normal temperatures, and some sunshine at times towards the middle of September.

My local weather remained sunny and hot with highs reaching 35 C on Thursday.

M.T. Cranium · 03-09-2022 06:55AM

Saturday, 3 September, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead continue as described yesterday, rather cool, lots of rain especially in the south, and rather cloudy most of the time.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see slow-moving bands of rainfall in Ulster and Leinster moving gradually east but there could be several more hours of steady rain accompanied by chilly and perhaps raw southeast winds with temperatures only 11-13 C during the rainfall. Partly to mostly cloudy further west with further showers developing, highs 15 to 18 C there. Another 10-15 mm rain is possible in the east.

TONIGHT will bring some further outbreaks of rain spreading northeast, moderate breezes from the east-southeast at times. Lows 8 to 10 C.

SUNDAY could see some breaks from the overcast and rain, with the worst of this spell of inclement weather likely to come Sunday night into Monday morning. Highs on Sunday 17 to 19 C.

MONDAY will start out with strong southeast winds and locally heavy rain especially in some parts of west Munster where 20-30 mm could fall. This rainfall will tend to move north in pulses that become more showery than sustained. Lows near 10 C and highs 13 to 16 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with showers or intervals of rain, lows near 9 C and highs 15 to 19 C.

WEDNESDAY the persistent low circling around near the west coast will finally drift past the south coast and allow a gradual clearing trend to develop across the north. The south will likely remain overcast with a few showers or intervals of light rain. Lows near 8 C and highs 14 to 18 C (likely to be warmest inland north).

THURSDAY to SATURDAY could see some improvement to partly cloudy with more isolated showers and lows 7-10 C, highs 15-18 C.

Yesterday I mentioned that remnants of Danielle could move towards Ireland by about Sunday 11th. It now appears that Danielle will keep trying to escape the blocking high west of Ireland by moving north; some guidance suggests that it gets all the way out and reaches Iceland in a weakened form, but now also we're seeing a more complex pattern where Danielle fails to escape, meanders around and is absorbed into the next tropical remnant system that catches up from behind. This combined storm deepens around Monday to Tuesday 12th-13th and does basically the same thing as we were discussing yesterday. I'm not sure what name this might take on with two tropical systems and the non-tropical storm naming in place, we'll have to wait and see of course if any of this materializes (the interval will likely be unsettled at the very least though). I don't expect much clarity in the guidance for this until maybe mid-week (around Wed 7th). The bottom line is that there could be a heavy rainfall event and most likely that would be in the south coast counties and possibly further north. But an estimate of probability at this point would have to be 50% or less.

My local weather remains mostly clear and hot (35 C again on Friday). There was a moderate amount of forest fire smoke from a distant source spreading in by late afternoon and this layer is thick enough to obscure all the bright stars and planets except Jupiter which I just observed looking more like a faint background star, but everything else was obscured completely. Hoping this smoke goes away as upper level winds shift around, but we are stuck with the heat for another week it would seem.

M.T. Cranium · 04-09-2022 07:03AM

Sunday, 4 September, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue similar, rather cool, frequently wet with nearly twice normal rainfalls possible, and rather limited sunshine overall.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see the last of the current outbreak of rainfall moving northwest beyond Ulster, to be followed by a partly cloudy interval with some sunny intervals and some isolated showers, warmer again with highs 18 to 21 C. Strong southeast winds and rain will approach the south coast towards evening.

TONIGHT windy with outbreaks of heavy rain sweeping north across most of the country overnight, 15-30 mm possible, winds SE 50-80 km/hr near exposed coasts and 30-50 km/hr more widespread. Lows 12 to 14 C.

MONDAY further pulses of rain will follow with a few breaks between them, another 5-15 mm rain likely during the day, winds sometimes strong from the southeast to south, and highs 15 to 17 C.

TUESDAY will see little change with further pulses of rainfall separated by partly cloudy to overcast skies, breezy and rather cool, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue much the same as the low responsible loops around several more times before finally giving up and moving east late Thursday. Partly cloudy to overcast with showers or outbreaks of steady rain, about 5-10 mm each day possibly, lows around 7 to 9 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

FRIDAY could see a brief break with partly cloudy skies and any showers relatively brief and isolated. Lows 6-8 C and highs 15-17 C.

The latest indications are that Danielle will move a little faster and maintain a track to the south of Ireland around Saturday of next weekend. Some moderate to heavy rain could spread inland as far as central counties, with east winds and temperatures 14 to 16 C. Some breaks in the cloud further north, and a more widespread break around Sunday (11th) before a more northerly sourced low spreads in another interval of cloud and rain around Monday 12th. Temperatures fairly cool during all of these developments, then quite chilly in north to northeast winds for much of the following week.

A stronger hurricane is now expected in the western Atlantic in about a week, but so far no indications that this one will have any impacts in Ireland as the track appears to be more north towards Greenland.

My local weather on Saturday was rather cloudy with moderate smoke from forest fires located in northern Idaho. Other fires further east in the Rockies were spreading a lot of thick smoke into southern Alberta too. It would have been hotter without this smoke, probably, as our high was capped at 27 C.

M.T. Cranium · 05-09-2022 06:11AM

Monday, 5 September, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue similar, temperatures near average and rainfall above normal in the south, closer to average in some parts of the east and north. Sunshine rather limited especially mid-week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast to start, rain will start to spread into west Munster this morning and will cover some other parts of the south and at times central counties, 10-15 mm totals are now expected. Winds moderate southeasterly 40-70 km/hr near some coasts, less gusty inland (30-50 km/hr). Highs 16-18 C south, 18-20 C north central where less rain and more frequent breaks in the cloud will allow for somewhat warmer highs.

TONIGHT further rain likely across the south, 5-10 mm in places, moderate southeast winds, partly cloudy to overcast further north, isolated outbreaks of rain, lows generally 10-12 C.

TUESDAY more outbreaks of rain likely, again more frequent and heavier in Munster, but at times spreading to most other regions, also still some intervals of gusty southeast winds near coasts. Highs 15 to 18 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY the low continues to dawdle around near the southwest coast and will only begin to move east later Thursday, so a couple more days of similar unsettled and cool weather with a bit more rain each day, heaviest near south coast. Winds generally backing to east and northeast during this interval. Lows both days near 11 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

FRIDAY there could be a slight break between systems and skies will become partly cloudy, lows 7 to 10 C and highs 17 to 19 C.

The future of Hurricane Danielle now located to the northwest of the Azores continues to challenge the models, the latest solutions are rather complicated with a number of areas of low pressure developing once the hurricane weakens and becomes extra-tropical around next weekend. Eventually several of these lows approach Ireland, first towards west Ulster then later near the southwest coasts. This will probably lead to several days of rather unsettled weather spanning next weekend (10-11 Sep) and the following Monday at least. Some rain each day, likely heavier near south coast especially towards Monday 12th. Temperatures will be no better than 16 to 18 C daytime but won't fall very much lower at night. Eventually if this complex of lows tracks far enough east, Ireland would feel the effects of a cooler northeast to north wind regime and temperatures could fall a few degrees lower, with variable cloud and some further showers probable.

My local weather turned sunny again with the forest fire smoke not bothering us locally, allowing highs to reach 30 C. A weak cold front has passed since late afternoon, and it has cleared again, with temperatures likely to be a few degrees cooler this coming few days, although still a bit above our normals (which are about 24 C at this point).

M.T. Cranium · 06-09-2022 07:23AM

Tuesday, 6 September, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain rather cool and wet, temperatures will average near normal mostly due to milder than average nights. Not much sunshine with the north coming closer to reaching normal totals.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with just a few sunny breaks in parts of the north. Showers or longer intervals of rain will spread gradually further north from Munster and south Leinster. Some amounts of 15-30 mm are possible in the inland south and southeast. Moderate southeast breezes and highs 16 to 19 C.

TONIGHT further rain likely especially near the south coast, where another 10-15 mm possible. Lows 12 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will continue unsettled with rain continuing to be more frequent and persistent in the south than elsewhere, lows 12 to 15 C, highs 15 to 18 C.

FRIDAY partly cloudy with showers more isolated and confined mainly to eastern regions with more frequent sunny breaks in the northwest. Lows 8 to 11 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

SATURDAY will bring partly cloudy skies with longer sunny breaks, lows near 10 C and highs near 20 C; at this point the day looks dry as Danielle is predicted to be both slow moving and unable to gain latitude eventually slipping into the southern Biscay regions by Sunday-Monday. However, some rain from associated low pressure may brush southwest counties on SUNDAY, other regions could remain dry if rather cloudy. Highs then around 18 C.

This extension of Danielle's distant and dying circulation may eventually be pushed south again allowing for some fairly pleasant weather in the following week (after Tuesday 13th) with Earl (predicted to become a hurricane near Bermuda) slowly tracking in from the southwest, possibly its rather weakened remnant will approach western Ireland around Friday 16th or the weekend of 17th-18th. That might lead to a rather windy and unsettled period after the projected dry interval.

My local weather on Monday (Labour Day here) was sunny with a cooler feel thanks to a weak cold front but by afternoon it was already back up to around 27 C. Some high cloud at times but a generally clear evening, chilly at this elevation (around 10 C).

M.T. Cranium · 07-09-2022 06:43AM

Wednesday, 7 September, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 7 to 13 Sept --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values with nights milder than average, daytime readings below.

-- Rainfalls will amount to about 50 per cent above normal in parts of the south, closer to average further north.

-- Sunshine will be held to about 75 per cent of normal values, cloudy skies will prevail.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with widespread showers, isolated thunderstorms possible. Moderate southeast winds backing to easterly later in the day. About 10-20 mm rain with potential for near 30 mm on south coast. Highs 15 to 18 C.

TONIGHT further showers will continue, lows 10 to 12 C.

THURSDAY little change with outbreaks of light rain, 5-10 mm additional amounts, highs 15 to 18 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy, showers more confined to eastern counties, sunny intervals developing further west. Lows 8-11 C and highs 15-18 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with lows near 9 C and highs near 19 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY are likely to be at least showery if not subject to long intervals of rainfall from lows associated with approaching Danielle, which may be further south but a large area of disturbed weather will be associated. Lows around 10 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

Most of next week could see slight improvements after this slow-moving complex passes, the north standing a better chance of clearing sooner than the south may do. Eventually another interval of showery weather will follow. Temperatures may be rather cool at times with a northerly flow developing mid-week with potentially strong north to northwest winds at times. Indications of a better spell of autumn weather later in the month after these lows pass.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and warm with highs near 28 C. Good views this evening of a low-hanging nearly full moon on the southern horizon, Saturn and Jupiter visible further east. Mars is becoming quite prominent in the eastern skies after midnight now.

M.T. Cranium · 08-09-2022 06:36AM

Thursday, 8 September, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 Sep --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, but it will be rather cool in daytime hours relative to normal, mild at night.

-- Rainfalls up to 50 per cent above normal can be expected in the east and south, contrasting with below average rainfall in the northwest.

-- Sunshine will be challenged to reach even 50 per cent of normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY, as the persistent low slowly drifts east towards Wales, winds will turn more easterly, feeding in persistent bands of showers and isolated thunderstorms from the Irish Sea. Rainfalls of 10-15 mm are likely for the south and east, some central counties also, 5-10 mm or less in some western and northern counties. Highs 17 to 19 C.

TONIGHT further showers, mostly in Leinster, and parts of the midlands further west. Lows 10 to 13 C.

FRIDAY the showers will continue in parts of Leinster, with partial clearing further west. Highs 17 to 20 C.

SATURDAY partly cloudy skies for much of the country, isolated showers. Lows near 9 C and highs near 19 C.

SUNDAY to TUESDAY lows associated with Danielle (which will weaken steadily and move towards Portugal) will bring bouts of moderate or even heavy rainfall especially to Leinster in an east to northeast flow pattern. Rather cool, highs 15 to 18 C, cooler during rainfall. About 40-60 mm of rain is possible in the Dublin region, lesser amounts for most other regions. Some parts of the Atlantic coast and Ulster may see only showers.

Later in the week, some guidance shows prolonged rainfall but other sources suggest that it will ease off for a while, so mark that interval as uncertain except that temperatures are not likely to be far from average for mid-September.

The remnants of Earl are currently expected to be weak by late next week and will move closer to Iceland than Ireland. However a broad southwest flow will capture this weakened storm and there could be showers in general for several days with somewhat warmer temperatures. That will likely be followed by cool northerly winds turning easterly and then another warmer interval towards the end of the month.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy and warm with highs around 26 C. A weak cold front has passed but temperatures will stay a bit above normal here for several more days, although feeling rather chilly overnight and for a brief interval on Thursday. Further south, Pacific hurricane Kay is moving up the west coast of Baja California (northwest Mexico) and may bring an unusual rainfall to San Diego and even Los Angeles by the weekend. A severe heat wave in California will ease as a result although more so in southern California than further north. Highs have been in the 40s (C) in many places in the southwestern states recently.

M.T. Cranium · 09-09-2022 06:59AM

Friday, 9 September, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar to previous report. Rather wet in the south around Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near normal. Improvements expected after Tuesday of next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY some further showers, some prolonged, will continue in the midlands and Leinster, while further west skies will be variable with just a few isolated showers. Where rain does fall, 5-15 mm can be expected. Highs near 20 C in the inland west, near 17 C further east.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy to clear with ground fog and mist forming, lows 7 to 10 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy with frequent sunny intervals in parts of the north, central and eastern counties. Highs 18 to 21 C.

SUNDAY will see rain, heavy at times, moving into the south and later central to northern counties. 15 to 30 mm can be expected. Highs will be near 16 C in the south, 18 C north.

MONDAY some further rain likely but more confined to the south coast and southeast, partly cloudy skies further north. Lows 12-14 C and highs 17 to 19 C.

TUESDAY a trailing wave could bring further rain at times in the south coastal counties although it may just stay slightly offshore most of the day. Partly cloudy to overcast further north. Lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

The rest of next week looks improved now, with some sunshine each day, and reasonably pleasant temperatures typical of mid-September, highs around 17 to 20 C. Nights will see lowest readings of 6 to 9 C.

A more unsettled regime may eventually follow when winds become more southwesterly again around the 20th or later.

My local weather on Thursday featured some sunny skies and some intervals of dense haze or forest fire smoke but it was rather intermittent, with highs of about 22 C.

M.T. Cranium · 10-09-2022 06:51AM

Saturday, 10 September, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, temperatures generally close to normal values, wet especially south and midlands tomorrow and Monday, drier trend after that, not much sunshine after today until near end of week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny to partly cloudy at times, then overcast by afternoon or evening at least in the west and south. Highs 17 to 21 C, warmest inland western counties.

TONIGHT rain will slowly advance from the south to cover parts of west Munster, overcast elsewhere. Lows 9 to 12 C.

SUNDAY rain may become heavy and persistent in Munster and parts of the midlands, somewhat more showery east coast and north, west coast. Rainfalls of 15-30 mm will be common in Munster and the midlands, 5-15 mm elsewhere. Highs 16 to 18 C. Rather foggy over high terrain and in all areas by evening and overnight as rain or drizzle continue.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with some additional rainfall, especially over the east and south. Lows near 11 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

TUESDAY partly cloudy with showers more isolated, lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C.

From mid-week through the weekend of 17th-18th to about Monday 19th, it seems likely to be more settled at least most of the time with weak high pressure systems trying to create a different regime. Eventually this will break down to strong south to southwest winds and some renewed rainfalls although away from higher ground in the west, amounts may not be all that large when this second change occurs. Temperatures throughout could be a bit below September normals with some chilly nights which we haven't seen very often in recent months. Slight frosts are possible in a few places but not widespread or "killing" frosts.

My local weather on Friday was sunny, hazy at times with just a touch of smoke from distant fires (the worst of them are in the Cascade Mountains closer to the coast than to here). It was pleasantly warm at about 24 C after a cool start. Lovely full "harvest" moon tonight, midway between Jupiter and Saturn in the sky (if it was midway in space, we wouldn't be able to see it). I think there may be northern lights displayed but the full moon makes them a bit less of a spectacle; the Sun has been in storm mode recently. Luckily the most intense solar flares have been directed away from the earth or there could have been more impact on our power grids.

M.T. Cranium · 11-09-2022 07:16AM

Sunday, 11 September, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, wet today, mostly dry and cool most of next week with only small additional rainfalls. Some sunshine mid-week but total amounts probably a bit below average.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be overcast with rain, heavy at times, moving through Munster and south Leinster into midlands and eventually further north. Amounts 20-30 mm inland south, 10-20 mm further north. Highs 16 to 18 C.

TONIGHT rain tapering to drizzle and foggy at times, lows 10 to 13 C, dense fog possible in valleys.

MONDAY will start off with variable cloud and a few remnant showers mostly through central counties, and this weak frontal trough will drift back southward dying out entirely by late in the day, leaving partly cloudy skies for most. Highs 15-18 C.

TUESDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sunshine, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.

WEDNESDAY also partly cloudy, lows near 6 C and highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with a few showers, not much accumulation expected, lows near 9 C and highs 15 to 17 C.

FRIDAY and the following weekend will continue similar with cloudy skies sometimes clearing briefly, and isolated showers, cool, lows generally 5 to 8 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

The following week could turn somewhat warmer again, at least for a few days, but colder days could then follow. It will not be overly wet despite a few frontal passages, and winds could become stronger at times than this coming week when typical wind speeds will only be 20 to 40 km/hr.

My local weather on Saturday was very hazy with sunshine rather dimmed at times by heavy smoke haze, and it was very warm with highs close to 30 C. At the moment it is still clear but very hazy, and besides the nearly orange moon and Jupiter (which appear quite close) it is difficult to find any other planets or stars in the smoke haze.

M.T. Cranium · 12-09-2022 06:19AM

Monday, 12 September, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS will be cool and dry with near normal sunshine. A few parts of the country will see small amounts of rain today, but after that it may be over a week before any further rain develops and even then that could be patchy. High pressure to the west of Ireland today will slowly edge in, will be overhead by Saturday, and will then edge further east just as gradually. Therefore winds will be mostly northwest to north until the weekend, light and variable on the weekend, and southeast to east the following week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with some sunny breaks developing across the north and a few parts of the inland south. A weak and dying frontal boundary from about Galway to Meath will produce scattered outbreaks of light rain this morning, 1-3 mm could fall from that, and another trough near the south coast may produce similar results there. Other regions are unlikely to see much more than traces of rain from brief showers. Highs 17 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with clear intervals, and chilly, lows 4 to 7 C in rural areas, 7 to 10 C near some coasts and in larger cities.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy with good sunny spells in most areas, isolated showers over hills in the northwest possibly. Highs 16 to 18 C.

WEDNESDAY will be more cloudy with some sunny breaks in the south and east, light showers possible near Donegal Bay and north Ulster. Lows about 7 C and highs about 16 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy with lows around 6 C and highs around 18 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny with lows around 6 C and highs around 18 C.

SATURDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sunshine, any low cloud might be persistent near coasts due to a slack wind gradient. Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 15 to 19 C.

SUNDAY also partly cloudy with some places overcast at times, lows near 6 C and highs near 18 C.

The following week looks similar although with a more noticeable southeasterly breeze at times, lows 7 to 10 C and highs 16 to 19 C. Patchy drizzle or light rain will eventually arrive over some parts of the south from weak frontal systems trying to push into the slowly retreating high pressure by then over Scandinavia.

My local weather on Sunday was hazy with weak sunshine at times, as forest fire smoke haze continued to plague much of western Canada and the nearby border states too. It's not so much that the fires are large but that they are numerous and the wind flow is almost nonexistent so that smoke is more or less trapped in most valleys now. The air quality was particularly bad in the lower Fraser valley and greater Vancouver on Sunday with health hazards for those vulnerable. Where I live, it was more moderate which is good because last year when it was worse than anything seen this year, I got quite ill from the toxic smoke (and or COVID). Nothing like that recurring so far.

M.T. Cranium · 13-09-2022 06:47AM

Tuesday, 13 September, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 13-19 Sep --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.

-- Rainfalls will be slight and some places will remain dry.

-- Sunshine will be near mid-September normal values (3.5 to 4 hrs daily)

FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with a few cloudy intervals, except near the south coast where the sun will be dimmed by extensive mid-level cloud layers at times. Winds north-northeast 20-40 km/hr except 40-60 km/hr near south coast and parts of the southeast. Highs 17 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will start out clear and clouds will slowly increase after midnight. It will become overcast in the north. Lows 4 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY morning cloud and isolated brief showers near north coast, partial clearing by afternoon, highs 15 to 18 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers near the north coast, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

FRIDAY to MONDAY will continue cool and dry with some intervals of cloud and some sunny breaks each day, nights varying from clear to overcast and rather chilly. Light winds in general as high pressure drifts across the country. Lows 3 to 7 C in rural areas, 7 to 10 C near coasts and in larger cities. Highs 14 to 18 C.

By TUESDAY of next week, and from then on, most of the rest of the month will see cloudy skies with stronger south to southwest winds at times, and rain will edge into western counties by mid-week, but may not make it much further than the midlands to west Munster, as other regions could remain essentially dry. Rather windy at times especially in Atlantic coastal counties. Temperatures near the seasonal average, but not as cold at night as this coming week.

Lows 8 to 11 C, highs 15 to 19 C.

My local weather on Monday was overcast, rather cool with highs near 18 C, and with smoke layers that could be seen better from a higher vantage point in the nearby hills, as the smoke settles into valleys from various sources on both sides of the nearby border. Most of our local smoke seems to be coming from fires near the Washington-Idaho border a few miles south of the international border, and at times a light grey ash was falling like snow here. Fires further west are sending even thicker smoke layers into the coastal regions where it gets trapped by an inversion and held in place until any strong winds arrive to disperse it (or the fires go out which does not seem imminent with a lot of dry weather in our forecast).

M.T. Cranium · 14-09-2022 06:47AM

Wednesday, 14 September, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain cool and dry with sunshine trying to keep pace with seasonal averages of about 3.5 hours a day. Light to moderate northerly winds to the weekend, then light and variable winds, becoming southeast next week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and cool, with isolated showers in north and west Ulster, and over higher terrain in Connacht. Highs 14 to 17 C, winds northerly 20-40 km/hr.

TONIGHT will continue rather cloudy with a few clear intervals, isolated showers in the north. Lows 7 to 10 C.

THURSDAY will continue partly cloudy to overcast and cool, with northerly winds possibly increasing for a time near eastern coasts (to 30-50 km/hr) but elsewhere little change in the moderate northerly breezes. Highs 14 to 16 C.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with some sunny intervals, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 14 to 16 C.

SATURDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sun, with light winds. Any place that clears during the early morning could see ground frost as lows drop to 4-7 C. Highs 14 to 17 C.

SUNDAY could see an improved mix of cloud and sun with temperatures edging up as a result, lows 4-7 C and highs 15 to 19 C.

MONDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, lows 5-8 C and highs 16 to 20 C.

Next week seems likely to remain dry for most, with increasing cloud and a fresher southeast to south wind. Some disturbances are expected by about the last week of September and it could begin to rain again around the 26th according to current guidance.

It's interesting to note that remnants of Danielle are now dying off the northwest tip of Spain (maximum wind gusts around 50 km/hr) with another associated low in the southeast Bay of Biscay, and a third one south of the Channel. Each one has some rain associated (including parts of southern England), but a more significant complex of heavy storms has formed over the south of France near the lower Rhone valley. That may help put out some fires in that region. Also of interest, the water temperatures in the Med are very toasty, 27 or 28 C readings are widespread, which may mean we will see one of those small-scale tropical storm or Medicane systems forming this autumn most likely somewhere between Sicily and Crete but possibly anywhere with those high sea surface temperatures. The southern North Sea and Channel are also running several degrees above long-term averages at 18-20 C in places. If we get into a stormy pattern this autumn, these high values (which to some extent also apply to waters around Ireland) could intensify any Atlantic gales.

My local weather on Tuesday improved slightly to hazy sunshine without the ash fall we saw the previous day, and it was very warm at about 29 or 30 C.

M.T. Cranium · 15-09-2022 07:01AM

Thursday, 15 September, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain cool and dry, with just small amounts of rain possible near northwest coasts and over higher terrain in Connacht and Ulster. Some sunshine likely most days although cloudy enough that it may not exceed normal values.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few sunny intervals, probably the best of those near the south coast. Light to moderate northerly breezes, and rather cool, highs 14 to 16 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with cold overnight lows of 3 to 6 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy and cool, highs 14 to 16 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY will feature light winds, some areas of cloud and some more prolonged sunny breaks, lows 3 to 6 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

MONDAY will begin to turn slightly warmer, lows 5 to 9 C, highs 15 to 19 C, with a southerly breeze.

The rest of next week will continue fairly close to seasonal normals for temperatures, with small amounts of rainfall returning to the mix but only in the western and northern counties at first. Highs during the week will average 18 to 21 C, lows 7 to 11 C.

The final week of the month could turn rather unsettled with more vigorous frontal systems bringing stronger winds at times.

My local weather on Wednesday started out with some loud thunder and a bit of rain before sunrise, then fog rolled in with clouds thicker below our elevation than above, highs about 18 C. Summer is beginning to transition to autumn here finally.

M.T. Cranium · 16-09-2022 07:32AM

Friday, 16 September, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 16-22 Sep --

-- Temperatures will average 2 deg below normal values.

-- Rainfalls generally slight until near end of the interval when some rain is likely in west, still well below average after that though.

-- Sunshine near normal amounts.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with some generous sunny intervals in central and southern , some eastern locations. Light winds, highs around 16 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to clear with scattered ground frost in valleys well inland, lows 2 to 6 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy also with light winds, highs around 15 C.

SUNDAY will continue very similar with a chilly start, lows 2 to 6 C, and highs 14 to 16 C.

MONDAY partly cloudy to overcast and slightly milder with lows 3 to 7 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

TUESDAY becoming mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks, light rain may develop near Atlantic coasts. Lows 6 to 10 C, highs 17 to 19 C.

WEDNESDAY some outbreaks of light rain near southwest coasts, variable cloud elsewhere, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue partly cloudy to overcast with some chance of rain mostly near west and south coasts, lows around 7 C and highs around 15 C.

The following weekend looks even cooler as the storm track in the Atlantic briefly relaxes to allow a quite cold northerly sourced air mass to drop over Britain and Ireland. Highs could be held down to the low teens. The following week, a stronger southerly flow seems likely with occasional rain but not large amounts away from the coastal regions, and temperatures up slightly into the 15-18 C range.

My local weather on Thursday was hazy with sunshine and cloudy intervals, highs around 19 C.

M.T. Cranium · 17-09-2022 06:23AM

Saturday, 17 September, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, cool and generally dry for the south and east, also dry to mid-week in the west and north but then about 10-20 mm of rain will boost them towards 50% of normal. At least normal amounts of sunshine, more frequent today to Monday.

FORECASTS

TODAY, after a frosty start in the central counties (Mountdillon as low as zero C), gradually warming to highs near 15 or 16 C under partly cloudy skies, with light winds.

TONIGHT, more scattered frost possible, lows 0 to 5 C under partly cloudy to clear skies.

SUNDAY, a mixture of cloud and sunshine, still rather cool, highs 14 to 16 C.

MONDAY, little change, lows 1 to 5 C and highs 15 to 18 C with partly cloudy skies perhaps more overcast late in the day especially western counties.

TUESDAY, overcast, a bit more breezy (southerly 30-50 km/hr), some light rain near western coastlines. Lows 3-8 C and highs 15-18 C.

WEDNESDAY, rain in some western counties spreading to Ulster, brief showers later elsewhere if any rain at all, winds southwest 40-60 km/hr, lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY are likely to see temperatures falling back slowly in a northwest flow, largely dry with partly cloudy to overcast skies, lows near 6 C and highs near 15 C.

WEEKEND of 24th-25th will remain cool and dry, lows 2-5 C and highs 13-16 C.

A slight warming trend is likely in the final week of September with occasional rain especially further west.

My local weather was mostly cloudy with glimpses of the sun, followed by a heavy rain shower in the evening marking passage of a rather weak cold front. Highs reached about 17 C. Tropical storm Fiona is approaching Guadeloupe and will later become a hurricane east of or near the Bahamas and Bermuda although some guidance brings it closer to the U.S. east coast. With that name you might expect it to head for Ireland but it's too early to say whether any remnants of Fiona will reach the eastern Atlantic at all. If so, it would be towards the 25th-28th of the month.

M.T. Cranium · 18-09-2022 07:24AM

Sunday, 18 September, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, almost all the rain likely to fall in the coming week will fall on Wednesday and Thursday, amounts now look a little more similar in all regions (10-20 mm), then another dry spell will begin. Temperatures will be generally rather cool for mid to late September, possibly 2 or even 3 deg below normal values. Sunshine will try to keep pace with normal, with a lot of cloud around mid-week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, with best sunshine likely to be found in the south and southeast. It may brighten up gradually where cloudy this morning. Highs 14 to 16 C, mostly dependent on sunshine.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy with clear intervals and cold again, especially in the inland southeast where some local frosts are possible. Lows 0 to 4 C there, 3 to 7 C generally in other regions.

MONDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sunshine, still with light winds, and highs 15 to 18 C, highest around Clare and Kerry.

TUESDAY will become partly to mostly cloudy, lows 3 to 7 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

WEDNESDAY will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain spreading into western counties, continuing further east overnight. Lows 7 to 10 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

THURSDAY, rain becoming more showery then partial clearing from west to east, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

FRIDAY to about the middle of the following week look rather settled, cool and sometimes sunny by day, clear by night although cloud will also be fairly widespread at times. Temperatures will remain about the same, but given that temperatures normally fall about 1-2 deg a week in the autumn, they will be closer to normal as a result.

My local weather was partly cloudy and cool with a high near 16 C, currently clear and about 10 C, with a slight warming trend for the coming week here. Fiona will soon be a hurricane and will cross Puerto Rico then head for the eastern Bahamas and a possible brush with Bermuda. It seems more likely to end up in its dying phases near Greenland than anywhere further east.

M.T. Cranium · 19-09-2022 06:54AM

Monday, 19 September, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 19-25 Sep --

-- Temperatures will average near normal or slightly below.

-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of average, but most of it will occur Wednesday night to mid-day Friday.

-- Sunshine will be challenged to keep pace with normal, due to considerable low-level cloud at times.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and a bit milder, with highs 16 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast, lows 9 to 12 C unless clouds break anywhere, to allow for somewhat colder readings in a few locations.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, highs 16 to 18 C.

WEDNESDAY will be mostly cloudy, rain slowly pushing into western counties late in the day. Lows 10 to 13 C, highs 16 to 19 C.

THURSDAY rain will taper off to showers, 10-20 mm will be fairly widespread totals. Lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY to about TUESDAY 27th will be rather cool in moderate northwest to northerly breezes 40-60 km/hr. Skies will be partly cloudy to overcast with just isolated showers. Highs 13 to 16 C, after morning lows 6 to 8 C.

The rest of the week following will be somewhat milder in more of a westerly flow, at this point little further rain is indicated with that, highs 15 to 17 C, lows 5 to 9 C.

My local weather on Sunday was dry with a rather persistent high overcast which began to break slightly to allow filtered sunshine, and it was rather cool at 15 C. Now hurricane Fiona is passing over eastern parts of the Dominican Republic and lashing Puerto Rico with heavy rains. It has a more intense forecast at peak, reaching cat-3 possibly mid-week near eastern Bahamas, then impacting Bermuda and eventually eastern Newfoundland.

M.T. Cranium · 20-09-2022 08:17AM

Tuesday, 20 September, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue similar, temperatures will average near normal values, a bit warmer at first, then turning cooler after a widespread significant rainfall Wednesday night and Thursday, amounting to at least 75 per cent of normal weekly values. Some sunshine at times but overall rather cloudy.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with slowly increasing southerly breezes, highs 16 to 19 C.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy, lows 7 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY cloudy with rain developing late in the day across western counties, highs 17 to 19 C.

THURSDAY will bring outbreaks of heavy rain to some parts of west Munster and the midlands (25-40 mm possible), with somewhat lesser amounts elsewhere. Lows near 12 C and highs 15-17 C.

FRIDAY and the WEEKEND will be partly cloudy to overcast and cooler, with lows 5-8 C and highs 13-16 C. A few isolated showers are likely, mostly in northern counties.

The following week will become somewhat warmer again, highs mostly around 17 C, with a continued warming trend into early October when temperatures appear likely to reach the low 20s at times. This stretch will likely be mostly dry with small amounts of rain at times in western counties.

My local weather on Monday was mostly sunny with cloudy intervals in the afternoon, quite pleasant and warm with a high near 22 C. Meanwhile, Hurricane Fiona continues to strengthen after crossing the Dominican Republic and seems destined to become the first major hurricane of the rather weak 2022 season (so far) near the eastern Bahamas, going on to threaten Bermuda and then parts of Newfoundland (possibly western regions on latest guidance).

M.T. Cranium · 21-09-2022 08:12AM

Wednesday, 21 September, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, after a significant rainfall tonight and Thursday approaching a normal weekly total amount, generally dry and rather cool with limited amounts of sunshine.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, rather warm with highs 17 to 20 C. Rain will push slowly into western coastal areas by afternoon.

TONIGHT the rain will gradually spread through all regions, becoming heavy at times in parts of west Munster, Connacht and the midlands. By morning about 20-25 mm likely there, 10-15 mm further east. Lows 12 to 15 C.

THURSDAY the rain will continue to push gradually eastward and will become more showery by mid-day with a partial clearing trend to follow from the west. A further 10-15 mm rain likely. Highs 15 to 17 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy and cooler with isolated showers mainly in western counties, lows near 7 C and highs 13 to 15 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy and cool, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 13 to 15 C.

SUNDAY will be mostly cloudy with scattered showers later in the day, small accumulations away from Atlantic coasts. Lows 5 to 8 C and highs 14 to 16 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY of next week look rather cool, with partly cloudy to overcast skies, lows 5 to 7 C and highs 13 to 15 C.

There will be a slight warming trend after that, and mostly dry weather with slight frosts returning. Highs will continue to be in the mid-teens until somewhat warmer in early October (17-20 C) followed by more significant wind and rain around the 6th-7th.

My local weather on Tuesday was excellent, sunny with highs around 20 C. It remains clear overnight. Hurricane Fiona is still intensifying north of Haiti and moving through parts of the southeast Bahamas, possibly peaking tomorrow as a cat-4, then passing close to Bermuda on its way to a landfall (as a strong extratropical storm) in Cape Breton (eastern Nova Scotia) and western Newfoundland. Wind speeds by then could still be over 140 km/hr, but peaking close to 210 km/hr tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium · 22-09-2022 08:11AM

Thursday, 22 September, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 22 to 28 Sep --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal values.

-- Rainfall after today's event ends will be slight for most, with about 10-15 mm left to go in the ongoing event.

-- Sunshine will amount to 50-75 per cent of normal.

-- Moderate northwest to north winds will dominate.

FORECASTS

TODAY some further bursts of heavy rain in Leinster, tapering to showers elsewhere, and then gradual clearing from northwest to southeast by late afternoon. Highs 15-17 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and cool, lows 4 to 7 C, isolated showers near Atlantic coasts.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast at times, cool, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms inland west to north. Highs 13 to 16 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast and cool, breezy (west to northwest 40-60 km/hr), isolated showers mainly near western coasts and hills, lows 5 to 8 C and highs 13 to 15 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, breezy, with outbreaks of light rain by evening. Lows near 7 C, highs near 17 C.

MONDAY will be chilly with moderate northwest winds, showers ending but staying rather cloudy. Lows near 5 C and highs near 13 C.

TUESDAY to about FRIDAY of next week will continue mainly cool and dry with winds generally northwest to north, 40-60 km/hr. Lows each day around 5 C and highs around 14 C.

The following week of early October will be more sunny and daytime readings could edge up slightly as a result, but overnight lows could be near the frost range at times.

My local weather continued sunny and pleasantly warm at around 21 C. Now cat-4 Fiona is pulling away from the eastern Bahamas, will give Bermuda a rather glancing blow by Friday night, and will likely slam into parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland at about the same strength as Ophelia in Ireland did, perhaps just transitioning to extra-tropical status, but still producing wind gusts in some places of 140-170 km/hr. Cape Breton Island seems to be the target.

M.T. Cranium · 23-09-2022 07:57AM

Friday, 23 September, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 23-29 Sep --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal.

-- Rainfall will amount to 25-50 per cent of normal values.

-- Sunshine rather infrequent, may struggle to reach 75 per cent of normal (currently about 3.5 h daily)

-- Winds often moderate northwesterly.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring a few sunny intervals although rather cloudy in general, with a few passing showers one or two of which could become briefly rather heavy, however 1-3 mm of rain will be the typical outcome. Highs 15 to 17 C.

TONIGHT will be clear at times, with ground fog forming, then more overcast towards dawn. Lows 3 to 7 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, cool and mostly dry with isolated showers, moderate northwest winds, and highs 13 to 16 C.

SUNDAY variable cloud, becoming rather windy late in the day, with outbreaks of rain from north to south overnight into Monday. Lows near 5 C and highs near 15 C.

MONDAY will be windy and cool with showers ending, winds northwest 40-70 km/hr, lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY little change, partly cloudy to overcast, lows each day 5-7 C and highs 13-15 C, isolated showers or outbreaks of light rain at times each day.

FRIDAY and next weekend (30th Sep to 2nd Oct) now looking rather unsettled and windy as strong Atlantic disturbances arrive in a westerly flow, temperatures near average (highs 15-17 C). There may be a few more settled days to follow.

My local weather on Thursday was mostly cloudy with some late afternoon sunshine, still relatively warm at 19 C. Meanwhile, Fiona is charging north past Bermuda, a little too far west to deliver a highly damaging blow there although cat-1 hurricane conditions will likely develop during the day. Landfall still appears to be in Cape Breton Island (eastern Nova Scotia) around Saturday morning.

M.T. Cranium · 24-09-2022 07:09AM

Saturday, 24 September, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 24-30 Sep ...

... temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal

... rainfalls will be 75 to 100 per cent of normal

... sunshine will amount to 50-75 per cent of normal in a cloudy, northwesterly flow.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with scattered showers, mainly rather light. Cool with highs 13 to 16 C.

TONIGHT will bring some clear intervals at first, then more widespread cloud, lows 4-7 C inland southeast and 7-9 C elsewhere.

SUNDAY will also be partly cloudy to overcast with dry conditions for most, but some rain late in the day in the northwest. Winds will increase and back to westerly 40-70 km/hr. Highs 13-16 C.

MONDAY rain tapering to showers, winds northwesterly 40-70 km/hr, cool with highs 13-15 C.

TUESDAY partly cloudy to overcast, breezy, cool with a few showers. Lows 6-9 C and highs 14-16 C.

From then on, rather unsettled and sometimes quite windy as Atlantic fronts pass on a regular basis, winds varying from west to northwest at moderate strength (40-70 km/hr). Lows 6-8 C and highs 14-17 C each day. This pattern may gradually change back to a drier cool northwest flow for a while once into October.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with a high near 17 C.

Hurricane Fiona transitioning to an extratropical cyclone is making landfall in eastern Nova Scotia, as it is middle of the night, few live reports from isolated shorelines but the general result will be similar to Ophelia given the differences in population and a more barren rocky coastline. Further west around Halifax, very strong northerly winds all day but probably only scattered minor tree damage there.

M.T. Cranium · 25-09-2022 07:31AM

Sunday, 25 September, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 25 Sep to 1 Oct remain similar to past reports, rather cool and cloudy with rainfall reaching almost normal amounts, possibly a bit of rain each day, in a northwesterly flow that will become stronger and more westerly by about Friday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather cloudy but should remain dry in most areas until a late afternoon to evening frontal system dropping south brings some outbreaks of rain. Rather breezy by afternoon, west to northwest 50-70 km/hr,. Highs 14 to 16 C.

TONIGHT will see further outbreaks of rain and gusty west to northwest winds, 50-70 km/hr. Lows near 11 C.

MONDAY the overnight rain will taper off to showers and some brighter intervals, with strong northwest breezes at 50-70 km/hr. Chilly with highs only 12 to 14 C.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will bring outbreaks of light rain and continued unseasonably cool with lows 7 to 9 C and highs 11 to 14, possibly a bit milder in west Munster (14 to 16 C). Tuesday may have somewhat more persistent light rain of the two days, total amounts from tonight to mid-week likely to be in the range of 10 to 15 mm for most, and 15 to 25 mm in some northwestern locations.

THURSDAY could see slight improvements to partly cloudy and isolated showers, lows 4 to 7 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY are likely to bring stronger winds from the west-southwest as more organized Atlantic disturbances develop and move quickly through northern counties towards central England. Highs both days about 15 C. Some rain at times, perhaps heavy in parts of Ulster and north Connacht.

There are some hopeful signs that the jet stream will lift north after that unsettled spell, with high pressure that had been out in the central Atlantic possibly drifting east to take up a new position over western Europe. That could lead to some considerably nicer weather for early October if it works out that way.

The remnants of rapidly weakening Fiona will move up into the western coastal areas of Greenland, the Tuesday-Wednesday rain for Ireland will be produced by weak lows that break off from that system near the south tip of Greenland, and head southeast in the jet stream from there (so not directly associated with Fiona). Gaston is moving west away from the Azores and will soon be extinct, while Hermine has pretty much come and gone near the northwest coast of Africa. Now we are tracking Ian, from south of Jamaica, possibly developing into a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, crossing Florida and Georgia on or about Thursday, and redeveloping into a tropical storm east of the Carolinas next weekend. Remnants of Ian would likely head northeast and if the idea of high pressure building up in early October comes to pass, would head rather harmlessly into the far northern Atlantic, but if that idea were to prove incorrect then remnants of Ian could be closer to Ireland by about the 4th to 7th of October.

My local weather was sunny with high cloud spreading in late in the day, rather warm at 21 C. We are now due to have several days in the low to mid 20s as a ridge builds over this region.

M.T. Cranium · 26-09-2022 06:48AM

Monday, 26 September, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue similar to past days' reports, cool and unsettled with near-normal amounts of rain likely and perhaps half to two-thirds of normal sunshine. It will become windy at times.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few showers, most likely in east Ulster and north Leinster. Strong and gusty northwest winds especially for the morning hours, 50-70 km/hr. Cool with highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will bring some clear intervals in the east but an increase in cloud towards morning, as rain moves into Connacht and Munster from the northwest. Lows 7-10 C.

TUESDAY the light rain in western counties will continue as showers and may spread to other regions, but amounts rather small (3-7 mm). Quite cool with highs 12 to 14 C, but not as breezy.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few showers, cool, lows 6-8 C and highs 13-15 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy with a dry start but possibly a rather wet evening and overnight period, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C. Winds will increase steadily to reach westerly 50-70 km/hr.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY look windy and unsettled with the risk of some heavy rainfalls in parts of Ulster, passing heavy showers further south, in very brisk westerly winds sometimes reaching 70-90 km/hr. Lows both days near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

By SUNDAY a slight warming trend should be underway, rain will become increasingly confined to the north, and highs in the south could be into the range of 17 to 19 C at times in early October. This may last for much of the first week of October then a more unsettled westerly flow with cooler temperatures may return.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and very warm, with highs reaching 27 C. We have about three days of this ahead, a bonus interval of summer. Meanwhile, Ian will likely soon be at hurricane strength passing near western Cuba towards the west coast of Florida by late in the week. Although expected to strengthen to about cat-3, the forecasts are not as extreme as they were for Michael a few years ago on a similar track.

M.T. Cranium · 27-09-2022 07:12AM

Tuesday, 27 September, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS will continue quite cool and relatively wet this week, although total rainfalls will be generally close to average.\

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals in east Ulster and north Leinster this morning. Rain will feed down from the northwest into western counties at first, then the midlands. Quite cool, and in the midlands it could turn a few degrees cooler still when the rain begins, highs only 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will be overcast with light rain at times, lows 6 to 9 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with showers, highs 14 to 16 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy and generally dry until late in the day when rain and stronger winds may set in. Lows 4 to 6 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

FRIDAY will be windy and wet, especially in parts of the inland north, where 15-20 mm could fall. Winds southwest to west 70 to 90 km/hr. Lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY will also be rather unsettled, with westerly winds 40-70 km/hr, lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY (2-3 Oct) will be partly sunny and milder, lows 7-9 C and highs 15-18 C.

This mild, dry interval could last for about a week before it becomes unsettled again.

My local weather was sunny and very warm on Monday, the high reaching about 28 C. The latest guidance for Hurricane Ian continues along the same lines as recent days with a major hurricane predicted for the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Although it won't be a direct hit on Tampa Bay, that region is likely to see significant wind and storm surge from the passing hurricane, but the landfall is estimated to be further north around Cedar Key, FL.

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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