Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 5 July, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 5-11 July and beyond --

-- Temperatures will continue to warm up slowly, peaking around the interval 11-15 July, when it will be a strong warm spell that may or may not meet heat wave criteria in Ireland; it looks quite likely to do so in southern Britain, and could be considered that way in parts of southeast Ireland next week. I don't set the official criteria, for me a heat wave is something like three consecutive days with highs of 30 C or higher, but that's probably not a standard used everywhere. Best plan, expect a warm spell and don't be surprised if it becomes warm enough for some to call it a heat wave.

-- Almost no rain is likely to fall until near the end of next week, so a ten day dry spell is in the forecast for all but some northern coastal fringes. Those might see 2-5 mm in total which is only 10% of a normal amount there.

-- There will be a slow improvement in sunshine, in fact, it's mainly the amount of sunshine each day that will determine the temperatures because the warmer air is already filtering in overhead, and this is making the lower levels quite stable and keeping that stratus cloud deck intact. Slowly but surely the cloud will tend to dissipate in more places and earlier in the day. I was watching some golf from Ireland (Adare, Limerick to be precise) and noticed the sun was making occasional appearances later in the day. By the end of this week, there will probably be more sunshine than cloud but it won't entirely eliminate the cloud, parts of next week might be more "wall to wall" sunshine.

-- With all this warmth, winds will be rather light especially after today when there could be some moderate westerly breezes again.

FORECASTS

TODAY will feature partly cloudy skies in some parts of the south, mostly cloudy central and overcast north, with a bit of drizzle or light rain over north coast districts at times. Otherwise it should be dry apart from some very light spotty drizzle in a few places. A bit warmer with highs 19 to 21 C for most, 17 to 19 C closer to north and west coasts. Some moderate westerly breezes at times, especially over western third of the country,.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy, lows 11 to 13 C.

WEDNESDAY will be similar to today only perhaps a degree or two warmer and with slightly more sunshine and less cloud in the mix. Highs 20 to 23 C.

THURSDAY on into the weekend and next week will bring more sunshine than cloud in most regions and temperatures will continue to climb gradually, reaching perhaps 22-24 C Thursday, 23-25 C Friday, and a similar slight increase until reaching about 26-28 C at times late in the weekend and next week. There could be an isolated 29 or 30 C reading, but that would depend on there being lots of sunshine in a place that doesn't get cooling sea breezes. Some parts of the north could remain a bit cooler with somewhat more cloud, and some outer coastal fringes of the west and south coast could have cooling sea breezes and drifting sea fog or low cloud at times. This will tend to burn off within a few miles of the shorelines. Temperatures might be close to 18 C along some coasts and 20-23 C a few miles inland, then 24-27 C a good distance inland. But it will feel quite warm in the sun even where there is that bit of sea breeze cooling.

Any breakdown of this forthcoming warm spell is likely to be well on into July and the timing of this suggests that it may gradually turn into one of those warmer than average summers, so it may be a case of several of these warm spells in succession. The recent brief spell of heavier rain will prove to be a blessing, I think, if these trends settle in because there could be a shortfall in moisture from now on in some parts of Ireland and even more so in parts of Britain. But at the same time, you can also get localized heavy thunderstorms after these warm spells break down, despite a general dry regime.

My local weather stayed cool, cloudy and wet most of the day. We had a few distant rumbles of thunder in the morning and about 5-10 mm more rain. It is such a contrast to a year ago when we had a scorching heat wave to about this same time.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 6 July, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar with a gradual warming trend and slowly increasing amounts of sunshine, generally dry.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly to mostly cloudy, highs 18 to 21 C. Some light drizzle could fall over parts of inland north central Ulster near border, and skies will be less likely to show any breaks further north. Winds west to northwest 20 to 40 km/hr.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast, lows 12 to 14 C.

THURSDAY will be rather cloudy too, but there may be longer bright spells over parts of the inland south and southeast. Highs 19 to 22 C.

FRIDAY will be more of a mix of cloud and sunshine as a slow clearing trend sets in, making it warmer by a degree or two. Lows 12 to 14 C and highs 20 to 23 C.

The WEEKEND and MONDAY should see sunshine perhaps a bit more dominant than lingering cloud, but a few coastal and northern districts could stay rather cloudy. Lows 11 to 15 C and highs 21 to 25 C in most places, possibly a bit lower near some cloudier coasts.

Guidance for the following week has become a bit jumbled with some models showing a tendency for slightly cooler air to return around mid-week with another warmer interval following after a few days, while other guidance keeps the previously forecast warm week in place. It may be just one of those one-day loss of plot occasions as I suspect the continued warm/dry scenario is still fairly well supported. But watch for updates in case there's a change in the trend developing.

My local weather turned out much better despite some ominous looking clouds most of the morning; those began to break up and drifted away to the north leaving us with blue skies nicely accented with high cloud of both natural (cirrus) and man-made varieties (contrail debris that was fairly prominent, a sign of stable conditions in the upper atmosphere -- I can see from satellite imagery that you have a lot of contrail debris over parts of Ireland this morning but it's likely difficult to see it from below the low cloud deck covering 90% of the country. Hoping that reduces to 80% then 70% etc with each passing few hours). It was quite warm as a result of our sunny afternoon and peaked at about 26 C.

One final point, you may have read this elsewhere, but apparently in Ireland a "heat wave" is officially defined as five consecutive days at or above 25 degrees. On both points (the duration and reaching 25 at all) this situation looks rather marginal so I think "warm spell" is probably the more accurate, and of course that will depend on clouds breaking although almost all numerical guidance at this point shows most of the country reaching 22-24 C on the weekend.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 7 July, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar; turning warmer with more frequent sunny intervals; south largely dry, north may see rain on Tuesday (5-15 mm) and very slight amounts before that.

Note that the previous post showing a forecast for the UK applies to parts of England but so far it does not look like it would be quite warm enough to produce official "heat wave" conditions in Ireland. Post should probably be in a different thread.

FORECASTS

TODAY will probably see gradual improvement in terms of sun breaking through the widespread cloud, already parts of the southeast and midlands are seeing breaks in the overcast. This will allow temperatures to rise slightly to the 20-23 C range in many areas. The north will likely remain cloudier and see highs near 18 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and hazy, rather warm with lows 12 to 15 C.

FRIDAY will also be partly cloudy and warm, can't rule out an isolated brief shower in the midlands or north. Highs 21 to 24 C for most, 18 to 21 C close to west coast and most parts of Ulster.

SATURDAY to MONDAY will be the warmest part of this current warm spell, with at least some sunshine in most areas each day, and highs 22 to 25 C. Overnight lows 13 to 16 C.

By TUESDAY there will be rain at times in Connacht, Ulster and north Leinster to about Dublin and Kildare, much of Munster and south Leinster will perhaps remain dry as this disturbance tracks east. Highs 18 to 21 C with the rain, 21 to 24 C further south under partly cloudy skies.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY of next week look similar to the past two days and could see a return to fairly widespread cloud in Ireland with breaks near the south coast, highs 18 to 21 C north and central, 20 to 23 C south. Nights will remain quite mild (12 to 15 C).

Then by end of next week, warmer again but breaking down to showers or thunderstorms fairly quickly into the weekend of the 16th-17th.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with light rain during the morning, then partly cloudy with highs near 24 C by afternoon. We are looking at a slow warming trend as well, ours may peak a bit later into next week (at around 33 C which is not unusually warm for here, the July average is about 28 to 29).

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 8 July, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 8 to 14 July --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 4 deg above normal, peaking around Monday. Some days later in the interval will be closer to average similar to days earlier this week.

-- Rainfall will be mostly confined to one event, around Tuesday morning, and that may be limited to parts of Connacht, Ulster and north Leinster where 10-15 mm could fall. Some southern areas will remain dry. This amounts to a maximum of about 50% of normal in a few parts of the north. Light drizzle in a few places on other days will not leave any significant amount of moisture.

-- Sunshine may manage to approximate the normal amount at least away from the cloudier west coast and north.

-- Rather light winds to Monday, then moderate southwest winds veering more westerly and easing later in the period.

FORECASTS

TODAY will produce a mixture of cloud with localized drizzle, and partly cloudy skies with some warm, hazy sunshine in places. It may not be quite as widespread as yesterday but some areas could manage to reach similar highs of 21 to 24 C. Anywhere that stays cloudy would likely stay closer to 18 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast and rather muggy with lows 13 to 15 C.

SATURDAY will also have mixed skies with cloudy intervals and some hazy sunshine, highs 20 to 24 C.

SUNDAY will likely manage more sunshine with high pressure cresting over Ireland. Even so, the slack wind gradient means that any remnant cloud will be stubborn to move, and the most likely places to find that cloud would be near west coast and in parts of the north. Conditions may be quite variable there. Otherwise, highs 21 to 25 C after morning lows 13 to 16 C.

MONDAY could be a very warm day with sunny intervals, some cloud at times, and moderate southwest winds keeping sea breezes from forming on the east coast. Lows 13 to 17 C and highs 23 to 27 C, in many areas, but a few coastal and northern locations could be closer to 20-23 C. MONDAY NIGHT will be quite warm especially around Dublin and parts of the midlands, lows may not fall much below 18 C.

TUESDAY expect some rain and possibly a brief thunderstorm in counties north of a Galway to Dublin line. Amounts of rain will be heaviest in south to east Ulster (10-15 mm) and will perhaps reach 5-10 mm further south into the midlands and north Dublin. Some parts of the south may remain dry or see only brief showers. Staying quite warm in the south (highs 22 to 25 C) but cloudy with highs around 17 C with the rainfall in the north. Moderate southwest to west winds could be gusty at times.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY of next week may be somewhat similar to the past few days with another Atlantic high building in, stable air and extensive low to mid level cloud, some sunny breaks near south and east coast. It will be moderately warm especially where the sun does break through. Highs 18 to 23 C. Nights will be mild at around 12-14 C.

Another warmer interval could follow around Saturday 16th, and the pattern after that looks relatively warm although with some days close to average, others warmer. Some rain can be expected, in other words, it won't be absolutely dry, but the amounts may not be all that great in some parts of the south, east or even central counties so there is some danger of drought developing in some of those areas. Heavier rainfalls seem more possible further north in the longer range.

My local weather on Thursday was mostly cloudy with a few outbreaks of light rain, trending to sunshine later, with highs near 19 C. Warmer air is moving in gradually and a heat wave is expected for much of next week here. Meanwhile severe thunderstorms with some tornadic damage occurred just north of Calgary with good videos available of rapidly rotating although rather small-scale cells.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 9 July, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue similar to previous days, warm and dry with a brief interruption in some central and northern regions on Tuesday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring a mixture of cloud and hazy sunshine, with perhaps more cloud in some coastal and northern areas, and most places should warm to about 22 to 25 C. A few coastal and northern locations especially those with any sea fog or low cloud might stay closer to 18-20 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy, mild to warm and hazy, lows 12-15 C.

SUNDAY will be sunny with a few cloudy intervals although some places may not see much cloud. Very warm with highs 22-26 C. A few coastal locations will remain closer to 20 C.

MONDAY will be sunny to partly cloudy at times, very warm with sea breezes cooling the west coast. Lows 13-16 C and highs 22-26 C for most. Some rain at times by Monday night, which will remain uncomfortably warm with lows only 16 to 19 C.

TUESDAY some outbreaks of rain will cross central and northern counties, with parts of Munster and south Leinster staying drier, with some brighter intervals there. Highs 18-21 C in the north to 21-24 C southeast, near 20 C in general in central counties. The latest guidance shows the rain taking a somewhat more southerly track so the limit may be south Clare to central Wicklow now.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will be dry and at least rather mild if not quite as warm as this weekend, with highs 20 to 22 C in part because there may be a bit more cloud than sunshine in many areas as the air mass will be stable like it was earlier this past week. If some places get more sunshine they could see highs 22 to 24 C. Nights will be quite mild in the 12 to 15 C range.

The weekend of 16-17 July could warm back up to the mid-20s in Ireland and current guidance shows severe heat developing over France and southern England around that time. Hopefully this will not spread quite as far north and west as any parts of Ireland but I'm keeping a close eye on it, the guidance at present suggests 24-27 C readings possible in Ireland, but 34-38 C in southern England and above 40C in parts of northern France and Belgium.

The pattern does begin to look somewhat more "normal" beyond that heat spike with the possibility of some significant rainfalls developing (for Ireland at least) by about the week of 18th to 22nd. But in the past, summers that turn hot in mid-July often see several more heat waves. Examples of hot summers with a cool first week of July include 1911, 1995 and 2003. All three of them stayed hot into mid-August.

My local weather on Friday was mostly cloudy with passing shower clouds although they stayed over higher terrain and no rain fell right here, though it was obviously raining just up the hill to our west. The high was about 23 C. We're expecting a gradual rise into the mid-30s by Tuesday, then cooler again.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 10 July, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 July --

-- Temperatures will average 2 or 3 deg above normal in most areas, somewhat cooler around Tuesday to Thursday than either end of the weekly interval. This cooler regime will be close to July averages so that some of the warmer days could be 4 to 6 above normal.

-- Rainfalls now look very slight, the Tuesday frontal system seems to be losing most of its moisture before arriving, and amounts from that could be quite small, otherwise very dry apart from some scattered showers possible around Friday.

-- Sunshine will average near normal on the larger scale with variations about 50 per cent either side of that average, as some cloud will be rather slow to move or dissipate in a few spots.

-- Not overly breezy most of the time but a bit more ventilation around mid-week perhaps.

FORECASTS

TODAY will feature some fairly widespread hazy sunshine and a few areas of rather stubborn cloud, expected to concentrate in the midlands then perhaps break up by afternoon there. Highs 23 to 25 C.

TONIGHT will be clear to partly cloudy, hazy and very mild, lows 13 to 16 C. You'll find there's a waxing three-quarter moon low in the south, nearby is a bright star (Antares). If you want to look after midnight you would see Saturn, Jupiter and Mars appearing in that order; there aren't very many bright stars in that portion of the sky to confuse the issue. Venus is only visible at sunrise as it pops up just ahead of the Sun and it is visible well into the dawn twilight. The moon will be full later in the week and passing near Saturn, then Jupiter next weekend (in the sky, not in three-dimensional space, we can't afford to let our only moon go that easily).

MONDAY could see a bit more cloud from the southwest but still some sunny intervals and quite warm, highs 23 to 26 C. (somewhat cooler near some western and northern coasts)

TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy, with a few brighter intervals later in the day. A rather weak front will push through and drop small amounts of rain in a few places, but this feature has lost about 80% of the energy it was expected to have a couple of days ago, so rainfall amounts might only be 2-5 mm at most. Also the front is speeding up which means temperatures will likely be in a similar range throughout, lows 14 to 18 C and highs 18 to 21 C, possibly dropping from those values in the afternoon in some places (inland south where the front will be still trying to produce a bit of rain by then).

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with variable conditions of sun and cloud from place to place, lows near 11 C and highs near 19 C.

THURSDAY will also be partly cloudy to overcast with lows near 10 C and highs near 20 C.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with a few showers along a weak warm front, many places could remain dry however. Some warmer sunny intervals could develop in the southwest particularly. Lows near 13 C and highs near 22 C.

WEEKEND of 16th-17th _ Severe heat is expected to cover most of France after building up all week, and will spill over into parts of southern England. Fortunately, Ireland will likely escape this and remain quite moderate with some sunny intervals both days and highs somewhere in the 22 to 27 C range, depending on some unknowns this far out such as cloud cover or lack thereof, sea breeze potential, and whether any of the heat mixes in or stays entirely confined to a separate air mass. At some point a rather active front will develop near the southeast coast and parts of southern Britain, with thunderstorms likely along that (in the Monday 18th to Wednesday 20th time frame). Temperatures in most of Ireland will be in the 17-21 C range when this sets up, and the severe heat will be swept away from whatever places it manages to reach by Sunday-Monday. A more variable period will probably follow and eventually there could be some rather cool spells before any renewal of the warmth.

I should mention that while severe heat seems unlikely to hit Ireland, travel into parts of southern England and all of France late next week would be a risky business -- the heat likely won't be severe very far north of London to Bristol, Wales and the Midlands should be considerably more moderate (highs 28-32 C possibly). As for the British Open golf event (at St Andrews, in eastern Scotland) their weather will likely resemble the predicted conditions for Ireland. It will be quite dry as it already is, and pleasantly warm by local standards.

My local weather on Saturday was partly cloudy to sunny, quite pleasant also at about 24 C. Good views of the aforementioned sky highlights tonight.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 11 July, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain same as discussed yesterday ...

FORECASTS also quite similar, perhaps a touch warmer for Sunday 17th and Monday 18th.

TODAY will be partly cloudy with hazy sunshine at times, increasing high and then later mid-level clouds. Light rain could brush the northwest coastal fringes by afternoon. Highs 22-25 C. Some areas of sea fog near south coast possible.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy and rather muggy with lows only dropping to 14-18 C. Some light rain in places, mainly western counties. Only slight amounts to 5 mm expected.

TUESDAY will see that sporadic light rain moving further east, although very brief outbreaks in some areas, with further trace to 3 mm amounts possible. Some partial clearing may follow. Highs 18-22 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY will be partly cloudy on average, with more of those localized variations between full sunshine and stubborn cloud possible, although the guidance suggests a somewhat better outcome with sunshine perhaps winning more of these battles in light westerly breezes. Some onshore fog banks may develop at times, and a few isolated showers could accompany a weak warm front around Friday. Highs generally close to 20 C but perhaps edging up to 22-24 C in parts of the south. Nights fairly fresh in some inland counties, lows 8-11 C there, 10-13 C in larger urban areas and near coasts in general terms.

By SATURDAY it should be warmer again with some hazy sunshine and local cloud, lows 11-14 C and highs 22-25 C.

SUNDAY could become very warm or locally hot, with highs of 26 to 29 C possible in partly cloudy to sunny weather conditions. Some coastal and northern areas a bit cooler.

MONDAY rather warm also, possible localized showers and thunderstorms and turning cooler from northwest to southeast later. Highs 22-25 C.

Around SUNDAY to TUESDAY next, severe heat could develop over France and southern England and spread further north. Ireland looks to be on the outer edges of this heat dome and while it won't likely be as severe, as the forecast above indicates, it will be rather hot in some parts of the south and east in particular.

The further outlook calls for a briefly cooler regime followed by the strong possibility of further very warm spells.

My local weather on Sunday was partly cloudy to overcast with widespread towering cumulus that wasn't quite managing to produce any appreciable rainfall anywhere, as there is a strong inversion over our region ahead of a warmer spell expected to set in today. The high on Sunday was about 24 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 12 July, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain warm and dry, somewhat cooler Wed-Thurs then very warm by the weekend. Some small outbreaks of rain but few locations seeing much more than 25% of normal over the interval. Sunshine about normal.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with occasional light rain ending later this morning, generally dry by afternoon except for one or two isolated remnant showers. Some partial clearing later, highs 20 to 22 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with clear intervals, a nearly full moon visible low in the south. Overnight lows 7 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will both be partly cloudy with some areas of generous sunshine and others with stubborn cloud, rather cool at night, pleasantly warm in the daytime hours. Lows 7 to 10 C and highs 18 to 21 C.

FRIDAY will see some morning cloud and isolated showers, after lows near 12 C, then hazy sunshine may break through the cloud by afternoon as it warms to near 24 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny and warm, isolated showers are possible but may not be very widespread. Lows 12-14 C and highs near 25 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny and very warm, or hot in some central counties. Lows near 14 C and highs 25 to 29 C, could see 30 C at Shannon or one or two other "hot spots" while Dublin around 25 C due to a weak sea breeze in south-southeast winds 20-40 km/hr. The sea breeze cooling may not push inland very far on the east coast.

MONDAY could start out just as warm or hot but a cold front seems likely to arrive at least in west and north, bringing some localized showers, temperatures gradually falling behind that front, but highs could reach 25 C before it arrives, closer to 18 C behind it.

TUESDAY partly cloudy to overcast with a few showers or outbreaks of rain possible, lows near 12 C and highs near 20 C.

Another Atlantic high will build in around Wednesday 20th and a more settled interval will follow. Temperatures then will be near July normal values but could rise a bit late in that week or towards the following weekend.

Still looking at several days of severe heat in France and parts of England around Sunday to Tuesday (in France, already quite hot in the south, that does not push north very much most of this week and starts moving north on Saturday). Some of the more severe solutions are perhaps less likely now but even so, 37 to 41 C highs are possible in some places. The heat is spreading out more than earlier expected, which is why Ireland is perhaps getting the outer edges of the heat dome by Sunday-Monday now, and also it may spread further north in Britain. Unless you like extreme heat, I would advise people not to travel to those regions in the given time frame if not absolutely necessary.

It was also sunny and hot here in western Canada on Monday, our high was 34 C, the hottest day of the year so far.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 13 July, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain very warm and dry, except for some light rain possible in the north at times.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring a mixture of sunshine and cloud, somewhat more cloud further north, and increasing cloud in western regions, isolated outbreaks of light rain possible in the northwest. Highs 20 to 23 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with overcast skies in the north, some light rain possible there. Lows 10 to 13 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with some sunny breaks, isolated showers further north. Highs 20 to 23 C.

FRIDAY will be cloudy at first, then some hazy sunshine will appear. Isolated showers in some central counties, little accumulation of rain expected. Lows near 13 C and highs 22 to 24 C.

SATURDAY will bring hazy sunshine and very warm, lows 14-16 C, highs 23 to 26 C.

SUNDAY very warm to hot, hazy sunshine, lows 16-18 C, highs near 28 C inland, 22-24 C near coasts.

MONDAY also very warm to hot, hazy sunshine, isolated showers possible in Ulster. Lows 17-19 C and highs 29-31 C in some areas, cooler near some shorelines due to sea breezes.

TUESDAY will turn considerably cooler with northerly winds 30-50 km/hr and some chance of brief outbreaks of rain although it could manage to stay dry as most potential for rain including thunderstorms skirts past to the southeast on most guidance. Highs 18 to 21 C.

Another warm, dry interval is indicated for later in the week.

My local weather was once again sunny and hot with a high near 34 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 14 July, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 14-20 July --

-- Temperatures will average 4 to 6 deg above normal values, peak values Monday could be near record levels. Rapid cooling by Wednesday 20th.

-- Rainfalls will be slight until Tuesday 19th, then 10-20 mm potential exists but details a bit unclear, as the heat breaks down with showers likely, and thunderstorms possible.

-- Sunshine will be near average due to fairly frequent cloudy intervals but some places may get a bit more sunshine than average in the southeast.

-- Light winds generally, turning more southeasterly after light and variable regime under high pressure.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with some decent sunshine in some parts of the east and south, more cloud likely in west and north, some very light rainfalls in a few places in Ulster. Highs 21 to 24 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to overcast with lows 12 to 15 C.

FRIDAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks, becoming more sunny by afternoon. Isolated showers are possible but very few places will get measurable rain from them. Highs 22 to 25 C.

SATURDAY will feature some hazy sunshine, some cloudy intervals, and warm temperatures for most. Lows 13 to 16 C, highs 23 to 27 C. Some sea breeze cooling possible around most coasts, not pushing very far inland.

SUNDAY will be sunny, hazy and very warm, with lows 13 to 17 C and highs 24 to 28 C.

MONDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, very warm or hot, lows 14 to 18 C and highs 25 to 30 C, some potential for even higher maximum values in parts of the inland south and southeast. A few coastal areas will benefit from cooling sea breezes.

TUESDAY at this point looks very warm and humid with scattered showers and a risk of thunderstorms, perhaps most frequent by late in the day. Lows 17 to 21 C and highs 24 to 28 C, temperatures could fall several degrees later in the day in parts of the northwest in association with the late arriving cold front.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy, breezy and much cooler, morning lows near 14 C and daytime highs around 18 to 22 C.

Another warm, dry interval will follow as Atlantic high pressure builds back in fairly quickly.

Two tips I can offer for beating the heat (to some extent, this from experience with a few severe heat waves in my own past) ... let the cooler air of the next one or two nights into your home as much as possible even if it cools down to an indoor value you find a bit on the cold side, then trap that cold air in your house for the duration of the warm spell. It will then take longer to heat up inside. ... and if you're feeling the heat, try a cool bath where you run very cold water into it as you get used to the water temperature, it cools off the core and refreshes you even if you start into it quite heat-stressed. Don't try going straight into the cold water though, it works better to change the temperature as you go.

How hot is it where this heat is already going full blast? Near the border of Spain and Portugal, some locations had highs of 43-44 C and have dropped only to near 30 C this morning. It is basically the same conditions as they had in the Sahara desert in central Algeria. In southwest France, highs on Wednesday reached 37 C and even Paris was 36 C. That heat is going to stay trapped in France until about Saturday and will then start moving north. As I've mentioned before, it could reach near 40 C in parts of Britain by Monday and Tuesday.

My local weather on Wednesday was cloudy with sunny breaks, as a rather weak front moved in from the north. There was a slight drop in our temperature to highs near 29 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 15 July, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS are similar to yesterday's discussion, very warm to hot and dry until Tuesday in most places, then showers and thunderstorms with a much cooler regime replacing the heat by Wednesday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks, and for most of the southern and central counties, becoming more sunny by afternoon. Isolated showers are possible this morning mostly, but very few places will get measurable rain from them other than a few locations in Northern Ireland where 1-3 mm is possible. Highs 22 to 25 C, except 18 to 20 C in Ulster on either side of the border, and possibly in one or two locations in north Connacht and north Leinster.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy to clear, hazy and quite mild. Lows 13 to 16 C.

SATURDAY will feature some hazy sunshine, some cloudy intervals, and warm temperatures for most. Highs 23 to 26 C. Some sea breeze cooling possible around most coasts, not pushing very far inland, and chance of isolated showers in west Ulster and higher northern parts of Connacht.

SUNDAY will be sunny, hazy and very warm, with lows 13 to 17 C and highs 24 to 28 C.

MONDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, very warm or hot, lows 14 to 18 C and highs 25 to 30 C, some potential for even higher maximum values in parts of the inland south and southeast. A few coastal areas will benefit from cooling sea breezes. There could be isolated showers or thunderstorms late in the day in the northwest.

TUESDAY will be very warm and more humid with scattered showers developing, and a risk of thunderstorms, perhaps most frequent by late in the day. Lows 17 to 21 C and highs 24 to 28 C, temperatures could fall several degrees later in the day in parts of the northwest in association with the late arriving cold front which could be north-south through the midlands by evening.

WEDNESDAY some further showers will continue in the early morning and possibly to almost mid-day in some places, eventually it will become partly cloudy, breezy and much cooler, morning lows near 14 C and daytime highs around 18 north and west to 22 C in the southeast, around 20 C from Dublin to Limerick and Cork.

THURSDAY may remain rather unsettled as a weak warm front develops and pushes back against this cooler air mass, highs near 20 C and some outbreaks of rain possible.

From next FRIDAY to the weekend of the 23rd-24th, warmer again although not expecting more hot temperatures, merely 22-24 C with some sunshine at times. The last week of July currently looks closer to average with highs generally in the 18-22 C range and some unsettled intervals.

As advertised here and elsewhere for many days now, severe heat is likely to push north through France over the weekend, building up almost as quickly in southern England, which may eventually reach record values of 38 to 41 C by Monday and Tuesday. The main factor preventing that extreme an outcome in Ireland is the moderation of a longer sea crossing for this hot air moving out of western France, which is why some forecasts are hedging bets a little by saying it could be "even hotter" than 30 C in some parts of Ireland. It would also depend on there being lots of sunshine and little by way of cloud as this very warm air arrives on Sunday and builds up further on Monday. The places most likely to be near 30 degrees C in Ireland would be the midwest, other parts of the midlands, and possibly as far east as Kildare and Laois. Dublin will more likely reach highs around 28 or 29 C in some parts of the metropolitan area.

The all-time record high in Ireland is 33.3 C observed way back in June 1887 in Kilkenny. Some regard more recent highs between 32 and 33 as more reliable. In any case, there is some chance this record could fall (most possibly on Monday). My own day on Thursday was a bit hotter than that at 36 C and I am acclimatized to that sort of heat here (low humidity helps) so I can't say it really played a huge role in how my day went. Last year's heat dome 42-44 C was a different story.

One good thing about the approaching heat, it won't last overly long -- perhaps we could say Saturday to Tuesday, although for some further west and north, it might be more like just Sunday and Monday. Keep an eye on your elderly family members and neighbours, the heat may be more of a problem for them.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 16 July, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 16 to 22 July --

-- Temperatures will average 4 to 6 deg above normal, despite some days from Wednesday on being near average. Very warm to hot Sunday-Monday.

-- Rainfalls will be quite variable, mostly created by frontal showers and thunderstorms around Tuesday which could be hit or miss. Some places will remain in a very dry regime as a result.

-- Sunshine will be near average and possibly a bit above normal in the south and east.

-- Light south to southeast winds to Tuesday, then a switch around to moderate west to northwest for a few days, eventually back to lighter southwest winds by the end of the week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast at times in the north, warming to 23-24 C, isolated showers could develop late afternoon around higher parts of Connacht and west Ulster. Hazy sunshine, a few cloudy intervals, and very warm further south, highs 24-27 C.

TONIGHT will be fair and hazy with rather oppressive temperatures most of the night, lows 13 to 16 C briefly before sunrise.

SUNDAY will bring on the heat with hazy sunshine and highs 26 to 29 C in many places, somewhat cooler near some coasts.

MONDAY will be oppressively warm to hot with some hazy sunshine, some cloudy intervals, and lows 14 to 18 C, highs 28 to 32 C. Once again, a few coastal areas will benefit from cooling sea breezes but these might be quite confined to near the beachfront in most cases.

TUESDAY will remain warm and humid for part of the day in eastern counties, and there are likely to be outbreaks of rain, with some potential for thunderstorms, moving gradually west to east. Forecast models are having some difficulty resolving the details so far and there is quite a spread in forecast guidance, other than the fact that it seems very likely to turn much cooler in western counties by evening. Lows 17 to 21 C will make Monday night quite oppressive. Daytime readings 22 to 26 C likely in the east, 19 to 23 C west, all subject to late cooling trends.

WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy after morning showers move east, rather windy at times (west to northwest 40-60 km/hr) and refreshingly cooler with morning lows 12-14 C and afternoon highs 18-21 C.

The rest of the week will see a gradual warming trend but no return to hot temperatures, highs 22 to 25 C by Friday into weekend 23rd-24th.

My local weather on Friday was sunny and hot again with highs near 35 C. So we're all in this together despite many thousands of miles between us. Getting a good view of a close conjunction of waning full moon very low in the southeast, and Saturn. If you have clear enough skies over the weekend check after midnight for these (the Moon will have moved to the left of Saturn by tonight) and Jupiter and Mars rising in the east shortly after midnight to 0100h. With the heat and a certain amount of Saharan dust likely to be making the trip north along with the heat, the Moon is likely to be an eerie sort of orange or even faintly red colour. Stay cool.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 17 July, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, very warm to Tuesday, then closer to average for mid-July; some rain possible Tuesday into Wednesday, and a few light showers near end of the interval too. Amounts could be quite variable though.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with hazy sunshine at times, very warm to hot for some areas inland, highs generally 24 to 28 C. Some slight relief from the heat might be found along coastal areas but only within a kilometre or two of the shoreline in most cases.

TONIGHT will continue warm and rather muggy with lows only dropping to 15-18 C and that briefly before sunrise.

MONDAY will bring more hot, hazy sunshine with some cloudy intervals and isolated showers over higher parts of the west and north. Highs 27 to 31 C for many inland areas, slightly more moderate near the sea (22-25 C in some places).

TUESDAY will start out warm again after a very oppressive night with lows 16 to 21 C. Somewhat cooler air will work gradually through western counties dropping or holding temperatures there to the 17-21 C range, while central counties may stall at 24 C and eastern counties near 27 C. Some showers and thunderstorms may develop although guidance still has some areas staying dry despite the frontal passages. Skies are likely to be variable between sunshine and overcast spells.

WEDNESDAY will become generally cooler and there could be a few more showers with partial clearing and strong west to northwest breezes 40-60 km/hr. Lows 12-14 C and highs 16-20 C.

THURSDAY will also be partly cloudy with isolated showers, breezy and pleasantly cool with lows 10-13 C and highs 15-19 C.

A slight warming trend is likely from Friday to Saturday, highs 20-22 C. Some showers may be part of the mix next weekend.

The severe heat is still expected to cover most of France and southern to central England from today to Tuesday, with highs possibly reaching 39 to 43 C in France and 37 to 41 C in England (more like 32-35 C in England today though).

My local weather has also been hot with sunshine again on Saturday here, and highs in the low 30s.

If you go for a late night walk tonight to cool off, you may see the waning full moon near Jupiter in the southeastern sky (visible after about 0130h). I am planning to have a look for that here as it looks like an "all-nighter" coming up to watch the Open. The weather there is likely to be fairly warm, variable with perhaps some light rain for a while. A weak front moved through northern counties of Ireland overnight, and is now pushing into southern Scotland. It has some slight rainfalls associated.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 18 July, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 18 to 24 July --

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 4 deg above normal, this mostly because of exceptional heat today and some lingering warmth on Tuesday, the rest of the weekly interval will be back down near the July average. 

-- Rainfalls will amount to 25-50 per cent of normal values. 

-- Sunshine will be near average in most places, perhaps slightly above in the south and east. 

-- Light southeast breezes with the heat, then moderate west to northwest, backing later to southwest, during the cooler second half of the week. 

FORECASTS

TODAY will be hazy and hot in most areas, with a mixture of sunshine and patchy higher cloud. Highs 28 to 32 C. Some slight relief may be found near some coasts but this will not likely extend very far inland. 

TONIGHT will be oppressively warm especially in the east, midlands and south, lows 18 to 21 C. Some parts of the west and north may fall to 14-16 C. 

TUESDAY some rather warm and hazy sunshine continuing in parts of the east, at least to mid-day or early afternoon. Variable cloud further west with a risk of showers and thunderstorms, somewhat localized, so that some places may experience a largely dry transition to cooler weather encroaching into western counties during the morning. Temperatures will peak at 26-28 C in parts of the east, 23-25 C midlands and south coast, 20-22 C further west and north where also the afternoon may cool further to 17-20 C. 

WEDNESDAY will be breezy and refreshingly cool, with a few outbreaks of light rain possible, also some brighter intervals, with winds WNW 40-60 km/hr. Lows near 11 C and highs 17 to 20 C. 

THURSDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy with a few showers and cool, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C. 

FRIDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, a bit warmer again, lows 8 to 10 C and highs 18 to 21 C. 

SATURDAY will become quite warm again with highs 21 to 24 C. This may persist into Sunday, or even Monday, as guidance begins to diverge on developments by next weekend. The other alternative is for a cooler spell to develop by late Sunday and Monday. 

My local weather on Sunday remained sunny and very warm with highs near 30 C. A weak disturbance is approaching overnight and may bring us a brief thunderstorm around daybreak Monday here, with clearing skies expected by afternoon. This will travel further east becoming more intense and setting off heavy to severe storms in parts of the border regions of the prairies and northern plains states. 

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 19 July, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 19 to 25 July --

-- Temperatures will average 1-2 deg above normal, but only close to average after a warm start today, which could remain 4-6 deg above normal in parts of the east.

-- Rainfalls will gradually return to more normal values, a small amount is expected later today, substantially more around Sunday, and totals could reach 75% of normal as a result.

-- Sunshine will likely average about 5-6 hours a day which is near the July normal.

-- Stronger breezes mainly from the west, later southwest, will replace the current light breeze regime.

FORECASTS

TODAY will continue warm but with a gradual cooling trend from west to east. Highs will reach about 22-25 C in central counties (north to south), and will remain near 18-21 C on the western side of the country. It could be as warm as 28 C in the east if there's enough sunshine. A few showers seem likely although a lot of guidance fails to develop anything measurable except near the Atlantic coast and much later in the southeast where that potential may be realized in the overnight forecast period.

TONIGHT further showers and risk of thunderstorms in the southeast, otherwise largely dry but with isolated showers possible, as the cooler Atlantic air continues to push slowly into all remaining parts of the country. Lows 10-12 C except 13-15 C in the southeast corner.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, northwesterly breezes at 30 to 50 km/hr. Highs 18 to 21 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy with lows near 9 C and highs 17 to 20 C.

FRIDAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, lows near 8 C and highs 18 to 21 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, warm and rather humid, late showers or thunderstorms in parts of the west. Lows around 10 C and highs 21-24 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY look rather unsettled with showers and moderate southwest to west winds, highs near 18 C.

The trends after that look near normal and sometimes a bit on the cool side of average. Heat may return to parts of England and France at times but not necessarily covering much if any of Ireland over the next few weeks in more of a southwest flow.

Note that extreme heat is expected today in most of England and France. Some heavy thunderstorms have erupted over Brittany near the leading edge of cooler air but this front will make slow progress northeast into south Wales and southwest England. Some remnants of this could reach Wexford later today too. The heat meanwhile could hit all-time record values of 41 C in some parts of England, and similar readings are expected in northern France, even into Belgium later today.

My local weather on Monday started out cloudy with isolated showers that developed a lot further moving east of here, into a severe thunderstorm outbreak for parts of Alberta and then Saskatchewan. Our skies then cleared but it was a bit cooler than recent days, closer to 26 C.

M.T. Cranium

Adding a heavy thunderstorm watch for parts of Munster later possibly spreading further north and also into south Leinster. Frequent lightning strikes displayed off the south coast and likely to move inland around Cork. This may fade out and redevelop, a lot of the guidance was rather weak on this potential but the extreme heat further east is making this system quite volatile. While there may be locally heavy downpours, other storms may prove to be rather dry with frequent lightning which could prove dangerous in terms of igniting wildfires over hilly areas of the south.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 20 July, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue similar to previous report, with the temperatures now settling into a cooler near average regime, rather dry to the weekend when heavier rainfalls may set in for about two or three days, heaviest west and north. Rather limited sunshine may not total up to an average amount for late July.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and widely scattered showers in a few locations, mostly just trace to 1 mm amounts likely from those. Cool northwest to northerly breezes. Highs 16 to 20 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with isolated showers and lows around 8 to 10 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with sunny breaks, and a few showers will develop through the midlands and parts of Munster, staying mostly confined to those regions, where locally 2-5 mm could fall later in the day. Many places will miss those and stay dry with perhaps just a few brief light sprinkles. Highs 17 to 21 C.

FRIDAY will be sunny with increasing cloud, some rain by evening in the west. Lows near 8 C and highs near 21 C.

SATURDAY will be rather warm and humid with scattered showers and risk of a thunderstorm. Rainfalls of 10-20 mm are possible especially over the Atlantic coastal counties and west midlands, parts of the north also. Eventually significant rain is likely further east, possibly not until the overnight hours. Lows near 12 C and highs 19 to 23 C.

SUNDAY will continue rather warm and humid, with further showers and thunderstorms. Another 5-10 mm rain is likely. Lows near 14 C and highs near 20 C.

MONDAY will become breezy and cooler with occasional rain, winds westerly 40-60 km/hr, lows near 14 C and highs near 18 C.

The rest of next week appears likely to stay a bit unsettled with temperatures rising slightly to reach the low 20s at times.

Record heat is moving away from Britain now but it will still be quite warm there today, in most regions. Much of France has cooled down slightly also, with a slow-moving line of showers and thunderstorms bringing some relief from drought in some central regions. It will be Germany and Denmark seeing the record heat today, although it remains very warm in southeast France and northern Italy.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny with pleasant breezes and highs around 29 C. Heat is building up from the plains states towards the east coast of the U.S. which up until now has not seen exceptionally hot weather since the end of May.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 21 July, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue same as discussed yesterday, near normal in most regards, most of the expected rainfall this coming weekend.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sunny intervals, probably more cloud than sun in western counties and this trend will influence central counties later. An area of persistent showers is expected to develop by afternoon and evening in and around county Cork where 5-10 mm could fall. This will be fairly isolated and confined mainly to that region, with remnants of the rainfall moving north and dissipating overnight. Highs today 17 to 20 C.

TONIGHT any further showers will tend to die out over west-central counties, some clear intervals possible further east and north. Lows around 8 to 10 C.

FRIDAY will be a partly cloudy to sunny day with some areas seeing some generous amounts of sun, highs 18 to 22 C.

SATURDAY will bring increasing cloud, some rain at times in western regions mainly, spreading further east by late in the day. Rather warm and humid, lows 12 to 14 C and highs 18 to 22 C. Moderate southwest winds will develop during the day, 40 to 60 km/hr near coasts.

SUNDAY will be cloudy with occasional showers, moderate southwest winds continuing. Lows near 14 C and highs near 19 C.

MONDAY will be mostly cloudy with a few more showers, winds veering to west then northwest at 40-60 km/hr, lows near 13 C and highs near 18 C.

The rest of next week may improve with higher pressure building in, some sunshine likely most days, highs near 20 C or perhaps slightly above especially in the south and east. During this interval heat may return to France and Britain but so far it appears unlikely to spread into Ireland although that was an early indication this past episode, so ... it might happen.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and quite hot with highs reaching 34 C. Luckily it cools off nicely here after sunset with the low humidity. Severe heat is spreading east now to the eastern seaboard of the US, New York City had temperatures in the mid to high 30s today (or 96-100 F if you prefer).

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 22 July, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain near late July averages in most aspects.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be generally partly cloudy and dry with just a few isolated drizzly showers in parts of the north. Some longer sunny intervals will likely develop around mid-day. Increasing cloud will move into western counties before sunset. Highs 18 to 22 C.

TONIGHT will become rather wet in most of the western and later central counties with 10-15 mm rain in some places. Overcast but mainly dry further east. Lows 10 to 13 C.

SATURDAY some outbreaks of rain will develop here and there lasting for several hours but tending to dissipate allowing some brighter spells for other parts of the day. Rather warm and humid, on average about 5-10 mm rain in most areas, highs 19 to 22 C.

SUNDAY will also be partly cloudy to overcast, warm and humid, with scattered showers and risk of a thunderstorm. Lows near 14 C and highs 19 to 22 C.

MONDAY will be mostly cloudy, occasional rain, and moderate west to northwest winds sometimes reaching 50-70 km/hr. Cooler, lows near 12 C and highs 16 to 19 C, more noticeably cool in northern and western counties.

The rest of the week will become more settled with rain more confined to western coastal districts at times, seasonable temperatures with highs not far from 20 C.

There may be a gradual further improvement as the first week of August looks a bit warmer with more sunshine.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and hot with the high near 35 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 23 July, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue near late July normal values, most of the rainfall expected in the next seven days will be this weekend with smaller amounts mid-week.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few outbreaks of rain but also some dry intervals for most. Rainfalls of 10-15 mm north and west, trending lower (5-10 mm) south and east. Highs 19-23 C, warmest in southeast.

TONIGHT will continue unsettled with showers and lows 13 to 16 C.

SUNDAY will become quite breezy (southwest 40-60 km/hr, higher gusts near Atlantic coasts). Warm and humid with further showers, risk of a thunderstorm. Highs 18 to 22 C.

MONDAY will turn cooler with showers ending, winds veering to west then northwest 40-60 km/hr. Lows generally 10-12 C, highs only 15-17 C in north and west, 17-19 C south and east.

TUESDAY will bring partly cloudy skies, a mostly dry day with isolated showers possible. Lows 8-10 C and highs 17-20 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with scattered showers, some places will remain dry however. Lows 8-10 C and highs 18-21 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will turn a bit warmer with some sunny breaks both days, highs 20 to 23 C.

The weekend of 30th-31st July will likely be similar to this weekend although the southeast could be a bit warmer around 22-24 C.

A fairly pleasant start to August is the current long-range projection.

My local weather on Friday was sunny with afternoon cloud and isolated showers nearby, making for an interesting sky, although the rain missed us here. It remained hot although a bit more moderate at 32 C.

Shepards Delight

Good evening guys

The updated forecast for Galway and the West of the country till next Friday.

Sunday 24th

Showery activity for much of the day sometimes longer spells of rain in places.

Monday 25th

A very similar day to Sunday temperatures much like Sunday 17-20c in the west of the country but lots of cloud and quiet humid showery day till about 4pm and a drier scene should take hold over ireland

Tuesday 25th

A much more settled day about still might be a few showers in coastal districts of the west but a mainly dry day in store

Wednesday 26th

A dry settled day and temps should reach 21 in places. More in the way of sunshine also

Thursday 27th

a settled day in store and should be clear and sunny in places cloud might be in places at times but should be dry in all of the country.

Friday 28th

This is when there might be a change could see rain reaching our west coast possibly around 12-1pm lunch time

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 24 July, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain quite close to late July normal values, the total rainfall in the next week should be about average in the west and north but perhaps as little as 25-50 per cent of normal in the southeast.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, frequent showers or outbreaks of rain, isolated brief thunderstorms possible, in Connacht spreading to Ulster by late morning. Some parts of Leinster and Munster may avoid much of this activity, especially those counties southeast of a Dublin to Cork line, so would expect 5-10 mm rain in north and west, only 2-5 or less in south and east. Highs near 22 C in the southeast, closer to 18 C in the more rainy west and north. Some blustery southwest winds may develop late in the day near the Clare, Limerick and Kerry coasts.

TONIGHT will continue partly cloudy to overcast with showers, moderate westerly winds and lows 12 to 14 C.

MONDAY will start out rather cloudy with passing showers, moderate west to northwest winds, becoming rather strong at times over parts of Connacht and Ulster by afternoon with gusts to 70 km/hr. Turning cooler especially in those regions, highs 15 to 17 C for most, 17 to 19 C in the southeast. Gradual clearing by evening.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy and less breezy with a few passing showers, not all areas will see measurable rainfalls. Lows 8-10 C and highs 17-20 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY should be more settled with some sunshine at times, only a few isolated showers, many places may remain dry. Lows both mornings 8 to 11 C and highs both afternoons around 21 C.

FRIDAY will bring increasing cloud with a threat of showers. Rather warm and humid, lows 12-14 C and highs 20-23 C.

The following weekend (30-31 July) will likely be somewhat unsettled but may also be rather variable with the southeast perhaps warming up slightly to 22-24 C while other regions remain closer to 20 C. The first week of August from this distance looks fairly settled although with weak frontal systems perhaps bringing some cloud and isolated showers at times. Temperatures will continue near or slightly above normal values.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny to mid-afternoon, as rather weak shower clouds built up over all surrounding hills, then these merged into a rather diffuse cloud system that had very little motion or mobile shower activity, so it never rained here despite looking quite black in various directions. This kept the temperature from rising much past 29 C. It has since cleared up and a recent check showed no signs (yet) of aurora borealis as has been predicted because of the recent solar flares.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 25 July, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 25 to 31 July --

-- Temperatures will average near normal to possibly 1.0 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfall will be around 50-75 per cent of average, somewhat heavier in south-central counties due to an expected rainfall there next Saturday, otherwise rather light rainfalls in general.

-- Sunshine will be about 75 per cent of normal.

-- Moderate northwest breezes at first, then rather light winds most of this week, becoming southwest by end of the interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy, frequent showers or intervals of light rain likely in parts of Connacht and Ulster, less frequent showers elsewhere, with a partial clearing trend late in the day. Blustery northwest winds 40-60 km/hr, higher gusts near Atlantic coasts. Highs 14-16 C north/west and 16-18 C south/east.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy and cool, lows 7 to 10 C.

TUESDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sunny intervals, with just a few isolated showers. Highs 17 to 20 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy with lows 7 to 10 C and highs 18 to 21 C.

THURSDAY rather cloudy with a few showers, lows near 11 C and highs near 19 C.

FRIDAY intervals of cloud and sun, isolated showers, a bit warmer, lows near 13 C and highs 20 to 23 C.

SATURDAY cloudy with showers, chance of an isolated thunderstorm, lows near 14 C and highs 20 to 22 C.

SUNDAY will become partly cloudy and rather warm, lows near 14 C and highs 21 to 24 C.

This warmer spell will last for a few days into August then more unsettled conditions are expected to return.

My local weather on Sunday was partly cloudy and warm with highs near 30 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 26 July, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 26 July to 1 August --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values.

-- Rainfalls will total about 50 per cent of normal, but this is uncertain as heavier rain may be approaching near the end of the seven day interval (for Tuesday, 2 Aug).

-- Sunshine will likely fall short of average by at least 25%.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast at times, better sunshine may develop further west this afternoon. Isolated showers are likely in the north and east. Highs 17 to 20 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to clear at times, with lows 7 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with occasional showers developing across Munster by afternoon, spreading to some parts of Connacht and Leinster. Just a few isolated showers are expected further north, and even where more persistent, rainfalls rather small (2-4 mm will be typical perhaps). Highs 17 to 20 C.

THURSDAY will bring a mixture of cloud and sun with showers developing again during the afternoon and spreading north through western and some central counties, once again rather limited amounts are expected. Lows 10 to 12 C and highs 18 to 21 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, rather humid, with rain developing across western counties later in the day, spreading east overnight. This band will be heavier with 10-15 mm potential. Lows near 13 C and highs near 21 C.

SATURDAY the rain will begin to taper off to showers in eastern counties, with partial clearing further west. Lows near 14 C and highs near 21 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy and rather warm with isolated showers, lows near 14 C and highs near 22 or 23 C.

MONDAY (1st of August) will be another rather warm day with chance of showers increasing, lows near 15 C and highs near 22 or 23 C.

TUESDAY (2nd of August) could bring heavier showers or even thunderstorms by the looks of current guidance. Highs around 20 C.

The pattern looks to remain quite bland and sometimes unsettled for the first half of August.

My local weather is heading into a heat wave, Monday was sunny with a high of 35 C and we are expecting near 40 C for several days now. It's quite a dry heat and cools down reasonably well overnight, to lows around 18 C, but even so quite warm inside at this late hour. Heat has spread across most regions which is not that surprising for late July which is the hottest part of the summer.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 27 July, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue near average in most regards, with peaks of rainfall over the weekend, not likely to exceed normal values even so.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather cloudy with best chances for sunshine likely to be in north Leinster and east Ulster. A few light showers will develop in a few parts, but only later on around Cavan and Monaghan is there any indication of a measurable rainfall, and that rather slight at 1-2 mm. Highs 17 to 20 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with a few clear intervals, lows around 8 to 11 C.

THURSDAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals, and a few light showers again, the only areas likely to see even 1-3 mm would be central Leinster and the midlands. Even there, this shower activity may be hit or miss. Highs 17 to 20 C.

FRIDAY will be mostly cloudy, dry at first, then some rain moving into western counties by afternoon and evening, 5-15 mm potential, and that will spread further east overnight. Lows near 12 C and highs near 21 C.

SATURDAY, variable cloud, outbreaks of rain across some central and northern counties, showers further south. Warm and humid with lows near 14 C and highs near 22 C.

SUNDAY will be similar with further outbreaks of rain and temperatures in a similar range, lows near 14 C, highs 20 to 23 C.

MONDAY will be another rather warm and humid day with showers and chance of thunderstorms, lows near 15 C, highs 20 to 23 C.

TUESDAY should begin to clear gradually from west to east, ending the somewhat wet spell, and later in the week the weather pattern looks fairly pleasant with more sunshine than during this coming few days. Highs may respond by climbing a bit higher into the low twenties.

My local weather was sunny and hot on Tuesday, highs reached 36 C and we're in for several more days that might even be slightly warmer. Got my cold drinks ready in some considerable quantities, we're used to this and we can always find slightly cooler places nearby with lakes around us. It seems that extreme heat is going to be the theme for central and then eastern regions of the U.S. going forward into August. This may sound familiar, New York City weather enthusiasts are looking at model forecasts showing all-time record highs for them, and wondering how reliable that may prove to be. As that is ten days away (at least) I am not all that convinced (yet) but it seems very likely to be over 35 C at times there. All-time record is 41 C (some other locations 42-43 C).

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 28 July, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain rather close to average, perhaps a bit warmer than normal in some parts of the south by a degree or so, and also more likely to reach normal rainfalls in the northwest than elsewhere, with 50 per cent of normal most likely in the southeast. Frequent light showers rather than downpours will contribute to this outcome. It will be rather cloudy and few places will do much better than 50% of normal sunshine.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter spells, with showers developing in parts of the midlands to central Leinster. A lower cloud base may be observed in parts of west Munster with marine layers moving inland. The best prospects for a few sunny breaks, and therefore the warmest highs, would be near and to the east of Galway. Highs there could reach 21-23 C but other regions may stay closer to 18-19 C.

TONIGHT will be rather cloudy at first, and may become misty or foggy in places. Clear intervals could develop well inland. Lows 7 to 10 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, rather warm and humid. Some rain will eventually spread into the northwest and will move east overnight. Highs 21 to 23 C, warmest inland southeast.

SATURDAY will continue rather cloudy with further outbreaks of light rain more frequent in the north. Total rainfalls about 5-10 mm but could be less in the south. Lows near 14 C and highs near 19 C north to 23 C southeast.

SUNDAY will be rather similar with a few more showers in partly cloudy to overcast, but warm and humid weather conditions. Lows near 14 C and highs 19 to 23 C.

MONDAY may see more organized bands of rain with a stronger frontal system, especially across the northern half. Lows near 15 C and highs 20 to 23 C.

TUESDAY will bring gradual clearing with any remnant showers moving off to the east. Lows near 13 C and highs near 21 C.

The rest of next week looks fairly average with occasional brief unsettled intervals but rather typical midsummer weather conditions.

My local weather has heated up to record highs on Wednesday, reaching 38 C locally. It's not quite as bad as last year's heat dome but this has been our hottest day this summer. Humidity levels remain quite low and it's tolerable in the shade but quite a burning sun. These conditions spread out across most of the northwestern U.S. but further south where it's normally hotter, unusually cool in relative terms in desert regions, some places reaching only 30 to 33 C where normals are in the low to mid 40s, and widespread monsoon thunderstorms bringing some localized flooding. A separate area of severe heat has developed over Texas and Oklahoma.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 29 July, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar ... somewhat warmer than average from now to middle of August, it appears, and rainfalls not far from normal amounts, although details keep changing so regional outcomes may vary.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy, rather warm and humid. Some light rain will slowly approach the west coast but should hold off in most areas until this evening. Highs around 20 to 23 C.

TONIGHT rain will move through most northern counties and by morning will be mainly over north Leinster and east Ulster. About 5 to 10 mm of rain will fall across some parts of the north, considerably less if any further south. Lows 12 to 14 C.

SATURDAY will bring variable cloud and a few more showers, warm and humid, highs near 20 C north and 23 C south.

SUNDAY will be similar with partly cloudy to overcast skies, a few showers in some parts, lows near 14 C and highs near 22 C.

MONDAY some early morning rain will spread through south-central counties into south Leinster. This rain may be locally heavy with 15-20 mm maximum potential. Later in the day some brighter intervals, quite warm and humid still. Lows near 15 C and highs 21 to 23 C.

TUESDAY will see the departure of the remnants of the rainfall systems and possibly a brief change to a dry regime mid-week. Highs 22 to 24 C.

The middle of next week then looks rather warm and sunny at times with highs in the 23-25 C range for several days (somewhat cooler in the north as usual though).

This warmer theme may become more of a developing trend into mid-August now.

My local weather on Thursday remained very hot, with the high close to 40 C. Sunny most of the day, but cloud from weak attempted storm development that could spark some early morning thunderstorms over local mountains. Otherwise we are set to remain in this heat wave until Monday, then more average summer temperatures return hopefully.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 30 July, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS _ Rather warm and humid with more frequent rainfalls, amounts may exceed normal values in some places. Cloudy much of the time to mid-week then brighter.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy, rather warm and humid, with outbreaks of rain gradually increasing in coverage and intensity. A more organized band of moderate rain is expected across the inland south by late afternoon to evening. Highs 20 to 23 C.

TONIGHT the rainfall will continue across the inland south, 10-15 mm possible by morning there. More hit or miss showers further north, 2-5 mm. Quite mild and muggy, lows 14 to 16 C.

SUNDAY will continue rather cloudy, warm and humid, with showers, and risk of an isolated thunderstorm. Lows near 14 C and highs near 22 C.

MONDAY further outbreaks of rain may become rather heavy in Connacht, the midlands and south Ulster (15-20 mm possible). A more showery outlook further south but some bursts of heavy rain possible there later. Quite warm in the south also, lows near 15 C and highs 22 to 24 C, temperatures closer to 20 C further north.

TUESDAY a few more showers are likely, gradual clearing late in the day. Lows near 13 C and highs near 21 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy, breezy and a bit cooler, lows near 12 C and highs 18 to 20 C.

A high pressure ridge building in after mid-week could bring a gradual warming to the mid 20s by the following weekend (6-7 Aug). Modified heat and humidity may follow and this is even more likely for nearby southern Britain and France. It's quite possible that there will be another significant warm spell this summer.

Certainly no shortage of heat for your obedient servant, I am either in western Canada or the Sahara desert, with sunshine and 40 C for the high on Friday. We have two days left of this rather brutal heat as a few thunderstorms roll past well to our north at the present time, marking a frontal boundary that won't move very much until Monday. With us getting the usual desert weather, they are getting unusually heavy rainfalls, Las Vegas had severe urban flooding in the recent day or two.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 31 July, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 31 July to 6 August --

-- Temperatures will average about 1.5 deg above normal values, somewhat cooler towards mid-week. Warmer again in the second week ahead.

-- Rainfalls near normal but most of it expected on Monday, some more on Tuesday, then mostly dry.

-- Sunshine poor at first, may improve to give an outcome near average.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with a few outbreaks of light rain, also a few brighter intervals, quite warm where the sun comes out. Highs 21 to 23 C.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with rain spreading into south-central counties and parts of Connacht. Some heavier bursts may develop. Lows 13 to 16 C in the south but 7 to 10 C in parts of Ulster.

MONDAY will bring further outbreaks of moderate to heavy rain, some places may total around 20-25 mm. Isolated thunderstorms possible. Highs 18 to 21 C.

TUESDAY partly to mostly cloudy, further showers, warm. Lows near 16 C and highs near 23 C.

WEDNESDAY, breezy and turning cooler, some sunny breaks by afternoon. Winds west to northwest 40 to 60 km/hr. Lows near 13 C, highs 17 to 19 C.

THURSDAY partly cloudy, lows 7-10 C, highs 18 to 21 C.

A long interval of settled and warmer weather could follow, highs eventually well into the mid 20s.

My local weather has remained hot and sunny with highs near 38 C on Saturday.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 1 August, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for 1-7 Aug remain similar, most of the expected rain will fall today with a bit more tomorrow, heavier in parts of Connacht and Ulster than in most of Munster or Leinster. Temperatures will average near to slightly above normal. Not much sunshine until midweek then more frequent sunny intervals.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain spreading into western counties this morning, heaviest in south Connacht. This rain will move towards south Ulster and the midlands by afternoon. About 15-25 mm is expected. Lesser amounts are predicted for east Munster and most of Leinster. Highs near 21 C south, 15-18 C in the north.

TONIGHT will be cloudy with further outbreaks of rain, foggy at times. Lows 13 to 16 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with a few showers, warm and muggy. Highs 21 to 24 C.

WEDNESDAY will be cooler with partly cloudy to overcast skies, a few remnant showers but a partial clearing trend, and fresh westerly winds 40-60 km/hr. Lows near 13 C and highs 17 to 19 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy and cool with lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny with lows 4 to 7 C and highs 17 to 20 C.

A gradual but significant warming trend will follow, highs will slowly increase towards a peak of 25-28 C by the middle of the following week. It may become very hot again in France and England.

My local weather went into the fifth day of severe heat on Sunday with highs almost 40 C. Apart from some forest fire smoke layers to our north by late in the day, skies were clear but hazy. We are expecting a slight break in this heat after a sixth day of it today.