Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 9 March, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain rather cool, wet and sometimes windy, although perhaps less windy from now on; only small amounts of sunshine are likely.

FORECASTS

TODAY a frontal system will gradually drift further east, bringing rain to the east coast soon, and it is quite wet in most parts of Ireland at this time. Colder air will seep into the moist air mass and slowly turn the rain to sleet or wet snow on higher ground after mid-day. It should remain as rain closer to sea level and 20-30 mm could fall in some areas. Temperatures will slowly fall from current levels (7-9 C) to around 3-5 C by afternoon. It will probably become rather foggy on hills by afternoon. Rather blustery winds at present should die down as this frontal system loses energy all day.

TONIGHT some clearing will develop from the west, but drizzle and low cloud will likely persist in the east. Lows -2 to +3 C, colder readings inland west.

THURSDAY will become partly cloudy to sunny for a short time, then increasing cloud will return and rain will arrive by evening. Strong south winds will develop 60-90 km/hr. Highs 7-10 C.

FRIDAY will start out with some blustery showers and local thunderstorms are possible, with hail. Then skies will become more variable with clouds and sunny breaks, scattered showers rather heavy at times. Morning lows near 4 C and afternoon highs 7-9 C.

SATURDAY will be partly cloudy to overcast with scattered outbreaks of light rain. The evening hours will bring on some rain and east winds from another disturbance tracking into the south around midnight. Briefly heavy rain and strong south to southwest winds will follow, parts of the northwest however may escape the worst of this. Lows near 4 C and highs near 8 C. Temperatures steady 6-8 C while the disturbance moves through Saturday night, although colder in some higher parts of the north.

SUNDAY will have cloudy intervals and some sunny breaks, and showers more isolated. Highs near 10 C. Another interval of light rain may develop Sunday night moving up from the southeast, but around this time, a more settled regime will try to build up.

Most of next week should be a little less unsettled and there could even be one or two completely dry days, as frontal boundaries become weaker and a somewhat warmer southeasterly flow develops. There can always be small but active disturbances embedded in this sort of pattern that cannot be predicted very far in advance however. So long as one of those does not interfere, the current prognosis for St Patrick's Day is fairly good (some sunshine at times and highs near 12 C). This southeast flow is associated with the strong and cold arctic high over Russia, but its cold air circulation will take a few days to reach western Europe and replace the transitional mild air that first arrives, and current guidance suggests there will be a sharp drop in temperatures as the easterly flow continues late next week or around the weekend following (19th-20th).

My local weather was overcast and cold, with snow showers at times, and a steady light snow this evening leaving a 2 cm coating. Highs reached only around 1 or 2 C. A strong storm system is taking shape over the south central U.S. and will start to deepen by Friday, then the low will move rapidly north and achieve quite a low central pressure (possibly below 950 mbs) near Labrador. This will lead to some very strong winds over the inland northeast and Great Lakes regions, some locally heavy snowfalls possible there, but likely to be a rain to snow showers scenario on the coast. This storm will die out over the late weekend and early next week west of Greenland.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 10 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 10 to 16 Mar 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values with a generally warming trend later in the interval, so rather cool at first, then milder.

-- Rainfalls will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal values.

-- Sunshine will average 75 per cent of normal, at best.

-- Winds generally moderate and slowly becoming more easterly in source.

FORECASTS

TODAY will see the last of any cloud and drizzle in the east breaking up this morning, with partly cloudy to sunny conditions briefly around mid-day, then another increase in cloud likely with rain by evening in western counties. Rather light winds at first, then southerly 50-70 km/hr by afternoon with gusts to 90 km/hr near Atlantic coasts. Highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will bring rain and gusty southerly winds 70-90 km/hr, easing towards morning. Lows near 5 C.

FRIDAY will have variable amounts of cloud and rather frequent showers, some heavy with local hail or thunder. Moderate southwest winds at around 40 to 60 km/hr. Highs near 9 C. Rainfalls about 10-15 mm.

SATURDAY will continue partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers, some briefly heavy. Rain and strong easterly winds 70-90 km/hr will arrive late afternoon on the south coast and this will push further north overnight. Morning lows 1-4 C, afternoon or evening highs 7-10 C. The rain overnight could become sleety or turn to wet snow inland over higher terrain. Some accumulations of snow are possible by Sunday morning but mostly on hills. This storm could bring 20-40 mm rainfalls to many areas especially the inland south and southeast.

SUNDAY will see the overnight disturbance gradually moving north through Ulster with strong southwest to west winds in its wake for most other regions. This will gradually ease after another 10-15 mm of rain during the day. Highs near 8 C.

MONDAY could see some gradual improvements as a frontal boundary moving in behind the weekend storm may begin to weaken gradually. This would lead to mostly cloudy skies, fog and drizzle in places, and brighter intervals developing, highs 10-12 C.

The rest of next week looks generally more settled and temperatures could be a little more pleasant in the range of 11-14 C. Some nights may produce frosts, however, and there will be the ongoing chance that colder air could accelerate westward from its source over eastern Europe and reach Ireland eventually perhaps by the end of the week or the following weekend. It is difficult to time that and when it seems most probable, some guidance wants to re-establish a zonal Atlantic flow that would push the cold air back to the east fairly quickly.

My local weather on Wednesday was quite cold with fresh snow on the ground all day from an overnight fall of 3-5 cm. Highs failed to reach even -3 C and with clearing skies late in the day it seems likely to drop to around -10 C here overnight. A rather complex storm is developing over the south central U.S. and will bring snow to some parts of the inland southeast and up the Appalachian Mountain chain into PA and upstate NY. Milder temperatures and rain are likely near the coast until the low passes to the northeast, then much colder air will be able to move in. If you're a golf fan and watching the Players Tournament from near Jacksonville FL, expect generally bad weather over the four days and some delays quite possible, becoming very windy and unseasonably cold there on Sunday which may not actually be the final round if they get behind their schedule on Friday and Saturday as appears possible due to thunderstorms. I wouldn't be surprised if the tournament has to play on into Monday.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 11 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain about the same, rather cool and unsettled to Sunday, then a gradual improvement with somewhat warmer temperatures developing.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather wet for many locations, with 15-25 mm rainfalls in much of Connacht, Ulster and Leinster. These are starting to wind down in parts of Munster and partly cloudy skies with isolated thundery showers will follow there. Moderate southeast to south winds 40-60 km/hr will ease when the rain lets up. But that may not be until late afternoon in parts of the east and north. Highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with slight frosts in a few places, isolated sleety showers. Lows -1 to +3 C.

SATURDAY will start out as a fairly nice morning with some sunshine and limited shower development. It will become more overcast by afternoon with the coverage of showers gradually increasing, then a heavy band of rain will move into the south by late afternoon, with stronger east winds developing, reaching 40-70 km/hr. Highs 8-10 C.

SATURDAY NIGHT the rain will slowly move north and may change to sleet or wet snow over higher inland districts. Lows 2 to 4 C.

SUNDAY the rain will continue to edge further north into Ulster, and by then the system will have dropped 20-40 mm in many places with coatings of wet snow on hills. A rather blustery southwest wind 50-80 km/hr will follow, with partial clearing and thundery showers in a few spots. Temperatures rather low in the morning then improving to about 7-9 C later on.

MONDAY a weak frontal boundary will start to break up over the western half of the country with extensive low cloud and mist but some hazy sunshine especially further east, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY will stay bright and mild in parts of the east and south, with cloud and light rain edging into western and then northern counties from a front well out to sea, making limited progress further inland. Lows near 2 C and highs near 12 C.

The rest of the week, fingers crossed, may be quite pleasant with highs 13 to 15 C away from cooling influences of southeast breezes off the ocean or Irish Sea. A colder spell could follow as the southeast flow eventually allows the distant cold air masses from Russia to track further west with time.

My local weather on Thursday was partly cloudy to sunny and temperatures improved slightly to around 4 C. The east coast of the U.S. is bracing for a fast-moving and intense weather system that will drop sleet and briefly heavy snowfalls followed by strong winds and a sharp temperature drop. This low is forming today around Alabama and northwest Florida, and will begin to accelerate up the coast on Saturday. Most guidance suggests it will form an unusually deep low near Labrador by Sunday morning, with central pressures on various models in the 930-940 mb range. Upper level winds will be very strong over eastern Canada at that time and the storm will crash into Greenland and split into two lows on either side of the ice cap. There won't be any direct influence on Irish weather, the Tuesday distant front scenario is an outer spiral band of this large disturbance. Meanwhile the most intense cold for the Ukraine conflict zone (currently around -8 to -10 C in most of the country with wind chill values near -15 C) will modify a little, and gradually during the next few days, but another similar cold spell may follow in about a week. The cold air has reached the Aegean Sea, readings are currently near freezing in both Athens and Istanbul, and -5 to -8 in central Turkey. It will soon be turning colder in the eastern Mediterranean region but readings are fairly close to average there now for time of day (10-12 C in Lebanon and Israel for example, around 0930h local time).

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 12 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 12 to 18 March --

-- Temperatures will average near normal values, with a slight warming trend towards the end.

-- Rainfalls will average near normal, but most of the rain will come in the first two days.

-- Sunshine will end up near average although several days could be overcast.

-- Winds moderate to strong at times this weekend, but trending towards light to moderate later.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be sunny with cloudy intervals, in most regions, but cloud will increase rapidly in the south leading to rain there by afternoon. Winds will become easterly 50-70 km/hr when the rain sets in. Rain will begin to move quickly towards the north by early evening. Highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT will be wet in most places with 15-25 mm rainfalls expected, locally 30-35 mm in some higher parts of Connacht and Munster. Winds east to southeast 50-70 km/hr. Lows 3-6 C. Towards morning some higher districts could see sleet or wet snow.

SUNDAY will continue unsettled with the low tracking north and winds switching around to southwest 50-80 km/hr. Rain will become more showery with widespread thundery showers possible. Highs 8-11 C. Clearing will be slow from the southwest but some sunshine may develop in Munster by afternoon.

MONDAY will be rather chilly and there could be some widespread low cloud or fog in the morning, clearing gradually to hazy sunshine in some areas, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 7 to 10 C.

TUESDAY will remain dry and bright in the southeast, but cloud and some light rain is likely in the west and north, although the front responsible will make only limited further progress east once it does approach the Atlantic coast. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY will be overcast with occasional light rain, and rather cool, with lows near 3 C and highs near 9 C.

THURSDAY 17th still looking better than most (which seems only right) and could bring some milder sunny intervals, highs near 13 C.

FRIDAY will continue fair and mild with highs around 14 C.

A slow return to unsettled weather of Atlantic origin will follow, and colder air seems more and more determined to join the party after the weekend of the 19th-20th, with indications of quite cold weather at times in the last ten days of March, cold enough for mixed wintry showers at times in easterly winds. It could even turn into a snowfall event but that's just an early indication of what may be possible, not a definite promise or threat.

My local weather was rather overcast all day with some light snow accumulating by evening to about 1-2 cm. We are on the outer edges of a very cold air mass in central Canada that is diving south to energize a coastal storm that will move very quickly during the day up the east coast, bringing a sudden change from mild to very cold weather along with 10-15 cm snowfalls and strong northwest winds. This low is still expected to keep on deepening for two days and may reach the 920-930 mb range over the Labrador Sea. Apparently the lowest pressure ever recorded in Canada was 940 mbs (in 1977) in a similar location, northern Newfoundland. So that record may be under threat although the lowest pressures will come over the ocean. Lower pressures of 880 to 910 mbs occur in strong hurricanes even at landfall in the U.S., but for winter cyclonic storms the North Atlantic record low is around 915 mbs from Jan 1993 (a low closer to Iceland than this one). Most of the energy of this deep storm will be dissipated over Greenland and surrounding waters, and secondary lows forming from it will be confined to central Atlantic longitudes well to the west of Ireland.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 13 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week ahead continue as described, except that rainfall will now be around 50% of normal after Saturday's and last night's amounts are removed, leaving only today as a significant source of further rainfall in the coming seven days.

FORECASTS

TODAY: Rain will become more showery with widespread thundery showers possible around mid-day. Highs 8-11 C. Clearing will be slow from the southwest but a few sunny breaks will be in the mix for most regions all day, with some more prolonged sunshine in Munster by afternoon.

TONIGHT will become partly cloudy to clear with patchy dense fog developing, and local frosts, lows -2 to +3 C.

MONDAY will be rather chilly and there could be some widespread low cloud or fog in the morning, clearing gradually to hazy sunshine in some areas, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 7 to 10 C. Winds becoming rather light and variable except in Ulster where a moderate westerly with occasional showers may persist to early afternoon.

TUESDAY will remain dry and bright in the southeast, but cloud and some light rain is likely in the west and north, although the front responsible will make only limited further progress east once it does approach the Atlantic coast. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 7 to 11 C.

WEDNESDAY will be overcast at first with occasional light rain, and rather cool, then partial clearing will bring some afternoon sunny spells, with lows near 3 C and highs near 10 C.

THURSDAY 17th still looking better than most with spells of hazy sunshine, lows -1 to +3 C and hghs 11 to 14 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will continue fair and mild with lows -1 to +3 C and highs 12 to 15 C. A moderate southeast breeze will develop, which may keep somewhat cooler readings in coastal Leinster and near the south coast too.

By SUNDAY (20th) and MONDAY (21st) colder air may arrive from the east, with highs falling back to the 5-8 C range, and sleety showers with the chance of snow on higher ground. That likely won't last too long before milder air starts to return in more of a southerly flow and readings could be back into spring-like values fairly quickly.

The rapidly developing low moving through eastern Canada has fallen below 960 mbs and is still expected to reach a pressure in the 920s over the Labrador Sea late today and tonight into Monday. My local weather on Saturday was cloudy but a little milder with highs reaching 3 C. We currently have a snow cover of about 15-20 cms in the town and 25-35 cms in nearby hilly areas, but only patchy 5-10 cm cover in the nearby lower valley elevations near the Columbia River. Our pattern looks rather slow to warm up so spring will be coming in very gradually around here. Even so, the onset of daylight saving time is this weekend in North America.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 14 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the coming week are rather bland, temperatures close to average and rising slightly towards the weekend, not a lot of rain in some eastern and southern counties, trending to about half normal values in west and north; not very windy in general, and more cloud than sunshine but some bright intervals on most days.

FORECASTS

TODAY will remain somewhat unsettled across the north with more showers feeding in from the Atlantic, while parts of the south and east should enjoy a relatively quiet, dry day with some sunny breaks amidst partly cloudy to overcast skies at times. Highs 7 to 9 C north, 10 to 12 C south and east.

TONIGHT could see a bit of frost in the inland southeast but skies should remain cloudy enough elsewhere that lows will only drop to around 2-5 C. Some light rain will edge into west coast districts towards morning.

TUESDAY light rain will fragment to showers moving further inland, about 2-5 mm of rain could fall in some western and central, northern counties, with some east and south coast locations possibly trace to 2 mm. Mostly cloudy with highs around 10 C.

WEDNESDAY will also be rather cloudy with outbreaks of light rain or drizzle in places, rather chilly with lows near 3 C and highs near 9 C.

THURSDAY (17th) will see a bit of improvement with sunny intervals more frequent in the south and east, isolated showers still possible in west and north, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

FRIDAY will be similar but perhaps a degree or two milder in places, partly cloudy with highs 11 to 14 C.

SATURDAY will see temperatures edging upward again, although with a stronger southeast breeze the opposite effect may be felt near the east coast, otherwise potentially highs 12 to 16 C, slight frosts continuing at night.

The current guidance has backed off a bit on how much colder it could become (briefly) Sunday-Monday, the same general idea is there but perhaps the temperatures will only drop to around 8-10 C, with isolated showers in an east-southeast breeze. Generally warmer again after that brief interruption, highs 11-15 C for most of the last week of March.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with a high near 5 C. It felt cold despite the temperature being that far above freezing, and the overcast while high based was thick enough to obscure the sun completely. The monster low on the east coast has moved out towards southern Greenland and is currently at about 930 mbs central pressure. The lowest reading at a weather station on land in Labrador was 946 mbs at Cartwright which was having an all-out blizzard all day and likely 40-60 cm snowfalls which are not that unusual along that coastal strip. There will likely be even lower readings in Greenland's south coast later today before this very deep low slowly begins to weaken and fill near the Greenland coast. The cold air that rushed in behind this storm is now mostly over the Atlantic and the eastern U.S. can expect a fairly steady warming trend most of this week.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 15 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 15 to 21 March, 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal to 1 deg above normal values.

-- Rainfall will average 50 to 75 per cent of normal, somewhat heavier in the west.

-- Sunshine will average near normal despite a rather cloudy start.

-- Winds often light to moderate southwest backing to southeast later in the interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with a few brighter intervals in the south and east. Outbreaks of light rain will continue in the west and north, making slow progress further inland while fragmenting more to occasional showers. Amounts 2-5 mm. Highs around 10 C.

TONIGHT will become rather cold in parts of the west and north while the remnant showers drift further east continuing to weaken further. Lows around -1 to +3 C for most, closer to 5 C in the southeast.

WEDNESDAY will bring rather chilly temperatures and scattered outbreaks of light rain, with highs 7-9 C.

THURSDAY (17th) unfortunately has the one significant change in the forecast as it may require part of the morning half of the day to clear away the remnants of the frontal rainfall so that some light showers may come and go until mid-day before partly cloudy skies by afternoon, morning lows around 4 C and afternoon highs 11-13 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY look pleasantly mild with some cooling sea breezes possible near east and south coasts, otherwise highs reaching 12-15 C with partly cloudy to sunny skies. Overnight lows could be near the freezing point with slight frosts mostly in rural inland areas.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will bring a slightly cooler batch of air that has drifted west from a cold source region in eastern Europe, but with the March sun and the slow forward motion factored in, temperatures may only drop a couple of degrees to the 8-11 C range, nights possibly a bit colder too.

As before, the guidance shows this colder spell being brief and not too strong before milder air returns from more of a southerly direction, then a battle between mild and cold air masses may set up near Ireland at the end of March with the possibility of some large temperature fluctuations by then (with limited confidence due to the time range involved).

My local weather on Monday was drab to say the least, a light rain fell all day and then when it became heavier in the evening, it started to mix with intervals of sleet and melting snow. Temperatures throughout were around 2 or 3 C. We are at that stage where the snowbanks are starting to reveal all the road grit that was plowed off to the sides and covered up by mid-winter snow, so that we now have just as much dirt as snow in parts of the town, but the snow pack where undisturbed has shrunk gradually to about 15 cms now. Getting a bit sun deprived here after a fairly long spell of mostly cloudy weather; the desert calls.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 16 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the coming week will be rather dry, with temperatures near or slightly above average, and sunshine near or slightly below average. It will not be windy, with moderate breezes at most and those from directions starting off southwesterly and backing to southeast later.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring some bright sunny intervals to most regions, starting a bit later for the east coast which has the last of some cloud and drizzle around for another hour or two. Widely scattered showers will develop near the west coast towards mid-afternoon and may drift some distance inland before darkness falls. Highs 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT will bring increasing cloud and showers over western counties, lows 3 to 6 C. A slight frost is possible in a few places further east before the cloud spreads in.

THURSDAY (17th) will be a rather cloudy day with a few brighter intervals by afternoon in the south, and occasional showers with 3-5 mm rainfall potential in parts of Connacht and Ulster. The east midlands are most likely to remain dry. Highs 11 to 13 C.

FRIDAY will become partly cloudy to sunny, after a rather chilly start with scattered frost inland, morning lows -2 to +3 C, then milder by mid-day and highs reaching 12 to 14 C.

SATURDAY looks like the warmest day of the month with some sunshine and light winds, lows 1 to 4 C and highs 13 to 16 C.

SUNDAY will continue reasonably mild with a few cloudy intervals, somewhat cooler near the south and east coasts in a freshening southeast wind, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

MONDAY and part of TUESDAY may be influenced by a colder air mass circulating around the slowly advancing Russian high which will be starting to develop a centre near the North Sea next week. This colder segment could see daytime readings of 8 to 11 C, and scattered showers forming over the Irish Sea moving inland over parts of Leinster.

That phase will be rather brief and milder air will return from the south once the colder packet has come and gone, allowing temperatures to return to fairly warm levels for a few days; however, as the Russian high transfers entirely to an Atlantic high with retrograde tendencies, that could open the door to colder air from a northerly source eventually, around the end of the month.

It should be noted also that another very cold interval is developing over Ukraine today as temperatures near -10 C on the eastern border begin to push west, and some outbreaks of snow are likely near the Black Sea coasts, as fully arctic air mass conditions spread west again. Moderation in this severe cold is expected to set in around Friday although nothing very warm is on the horizon.

My local weather has continued rather drab all day with fresh snow on the ground in the morning melting away to slush in an intermittent light rainfall with temperatures stalled at about 4 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 17 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 17 to 23 March 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average near normal with perhaps a larger range from cool nights to mild days than usual.

-- Rainfalls will average 10 to 25 per cent of normal, and much of that could be today, also a bit more around Monday in the east. Some places that avoid rain today could stay dry throughout.

-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above normal.

-- Moderate southwest winds today will be about the strongest of the whole interval, and wind direction will gradually back to the southeast.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy with passing showers in the morning, some of them briefly heavy but amounts will be limited to 2-5 mm in most places, in Connacht, the midlands and Ulster. Even fewer showers are expected in some parts of the east and south but 1-3 mm amounts are possible. Highs will reach about 12 C for most, 14 C in a few parts of the inland south with better sunshine totals.

TONIGHT will turn mostly clear and cold with frosts likely inland. Lows -2 to +3 C. The moon will be full (the exact timing is

FRIDAY will be partly to mostly sunny except for patchy low cloud that may come and go near the south coast at times. Light to moderate southerly breezes, highs 11 to 14 C.

SATURDAY will also be sunny and quite pleasant with lows -1 to +4 C and highs 12 to 15 C.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny, with lows 1 to 4 C and highs 10 to 13 C. Rather fresh southeast breezes could keep things a bit cooler near the south coast and some parts of the east coast.

MONDAY will turn a few degrees cooler with a slight chance of showers near the Irish Sea, in southeast winds 30-50 km/hr. Lows near 3 C and highs near 9 C east to 12 C west.

TUESDAY will continue partly cloudy with isolated showers, and lows near 3 C, highs 10 to 13 C.

High pressure will dominate the rest of the week and it may stay slightly cooler than the peak temperatures expected in coming days, but close to seasonal averages, with highs 11 to 14 C, and slight frosts likely at night. A more unsettled end to the month is possible as the high breaks down by about the weekend of the 26th-27th.

My local weather on Wednesday was partly cloudy with highs around 5 C in our area, to 8 C in the nearby valley, and the sun is beginning to feel quite warm in sheltered spots, but melting of snow continues at a rather slow pace. On our short excursion we found that snow cover was fairly solid down to near the bottom of the valley but has become rather spotty near the river so the snow line is about 500m asl now. I would prefer it to be 1500m so I can still see snowy peaks but otherwise it would then be gone.

Clear skies prevail over most of Ukraine and it's very cold for mid-March, visible satellite shows what look like several sources of smoke around Kiev drifting south. If you look, greyer looking cloud masses further north are probably just natural low cloud and larger expanses of bright white cloud in southern Ukraine are probably snow clouds as there's a weak disturbance in the western Black Sea moving southwest.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 18 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue mainly dry, temperatures gradually rising to 2-3 deg above normal values at times, and generous amounts of sunshine likely with some threat of low cloud or sea fog intruding near south coast, in moderate southeast to south wind flow.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly sunny with some increase in cloud near south coast later on, highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT will be clear except for a few fog patches and lows generally near -1 C on average, a few coastal areas milder, and scattered frosts inland.

SATURDAY will bring more hazy sunshine and highs 13 to 16 C, except possibly a bit cooler near south and east coasts.

SUNDAY will have more of a mixture of sun and cloud with temperatures in a similar range, highs again into the mid-teens.

MONDAY the colder segment rotating around high pressure that we've been tracking now appears to be confined to Britain although it may interact with the stable air mass to create a bit more cloud and isolated showers in east Ulster and north Leinster. Highs may remain in the mid-teens for some western counties and fall off a bit to 11-13 C in the east.

From TUESDAY to near the end of the week or even the following weekend, little change in this dry and pleasant weather pattern, highs for most areas will stay in a similar range of 13 to 16 C. Nights will continue to be rather cool but with some increase in cloud the frost factor may be less widespread. The end or breakdown of this spell is difficult to time given the uncertainty that always goes with the two week time frame, but somewhere around the end of March a change to more unsettled weather is likely.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast but dry with temperatures around 5 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 19 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, mild to warm days, cool nights, mostly dry apart from small amounts of rain in western counties possible around Sunday, moderate southeast winds that may bring local cooling to south and east coast locations, and generous amounts of sunshine.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly sunny and quite mild with highs around 15 or 16 C in most areas, 12 to 14 C near south and east coasts. Moderate southeast winds 30-50 km/hr in more exposed locations, will probably be less of a factor well inland.

TONIGHT will see increasing cloud across parts of the south and west, with clear skies remaining for east and north. Lows will therefore vary from the range of 6-9 C under the cloud to 1-4 C under clear skies.

SUNDAY some cloud and isolated outbreaks of light rain will brush past the west coast and could bring some locations trace to 2 mm amounts, but further east it should stay dry and there will be some sunny breaks despite widespread cloud. Highs 12 to 15 C.

MONDAY will have variable amounts of cloud, isolated showers possible, quite warm for the western half of the country with highs 13 to 17 C, not quite as mild in the east and near the south coast, highs 10 to 14 C.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY will continue mild to warm and dry, with quite frequent clear skies so that a large range from cool overnight lows (1-4 C with local frosts inland) to highs 13 to 18 C, some cooling near east and south coasts. In fact this trend might continue into the weekend of 26th-27th and start to break down around Monday 28th. Colder air could come in from the north if the friendly high to our east (generally strongest from Norway to Scotland) breaks down and gives way to a northerly flow. So at the moment we are tracking the potential for a somewhat wintry outbreak just around the end of this month.

My local weather on Friday was mostly cloudy again but a few degrees milder with highs close to 8 C. A slow melt of large snowbanks continues but on lawns the snow cover has dwindled to about 10-15 cm and south facing slopes tend to be bare now although devoid of any sign of spring yet.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 20 March, 2022 __ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the coming week remain dry and somewhat warmer than average in most areas, cooler near some coasts in a southeast wind flow that will range from light to moderate in speeds, and some sunshine in the mix most days.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather cloudy in the western and central regions, with isolated drizzle in a few places, highs 12 to 14 C. More sunshine will prevail further east and into much of Ulster, with highs 13 to 15 C, cooler readings along the Irish Sea coast in southeast breezes 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT will bring somewhat clearer skies where cloud had prevailed earlier, trending to partly cloudy in general, lows 2-5 C.

MONDAY will have a mixture of cloud and sunshine with isolated showers, with highs 13 to 16 C.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY will continue rather similar to that, with perhaps one or two showers around on Wednesday from a weak frontal boundary edging in from the south. Each day will have highs between 13 and 17 C with warmer readings generally inland west and central counties, cooler near east and south coasts. Overnight lows will range from near freezing in a few spots to around 5 C.

The weekend of 26th-27th should be fairly warm also with winds becoming southwesterly, perhaps shifting the warmest temperatures more towards the eastern counties. Highs 14 to 18 C.

The week starting 28th of March looks considerably colder as north to northeast winds replace the warm flow, bringing temperatures closer to 7-10 C in the daytime hours. Eventually the Atlantic will try to generate systems to push that cold air back, leading to some chilly rainfall scenarios that could even see late appearances of wet snow or sleet. So enjoy this nice spell of weather while it lasts.

My local weather on Saturday was fairly grim, a cold rain started to mix with snow in temperatures around 3-4 C, then it turned to a heavy wet snow for a while, before clearing up around sunset to allow the slushy mess to freeze up under colder temperatures.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 21 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS will be fairly specific to regions this coming week. The east and south are likely to remain close to average temperature with cooling sea breezes and more cloud in the mix, moderate southeast breezes at times, and little if any rainfall. Central to western inland counties will be warmer than average and also fairly bright most days, with a mixture of cloud and sunshine prevalent. Winds there will be less noticeable than on the coasts. The west coast and parts of the north will be oscillating between that warmer regime and coastal cloud and chilly sea breezes at times.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with some breaks at times, isolated showers mostly in Ulster and parts of north Leinster, Connacht. Highs 13 to 16 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with lows 3-7 C.

TUESDAY will be partly cloudy and somewhat warmer again with highs 14 to 17 C. Isolated showers are possible but will not likely drop much rain.

WEDNESDAY to SATURDAY will continue partly cloudy to overcast at times, best sunshine likely to be in the central and western inland counties, where also the warmest highs will occur (15 to 18 C possibly), while other regions are a bit cooler under somewhat more cloud on average. Little if any rain is expected.

The mild to warm and dry spell will break down gradually after Saturday, with cooler air spreading in from the northeast, at about the same time as unsettled weather from the Atlantic tries to push in from the west. At this time range, it's hard to nail down the details but in general it should be turning somewhat cooler and wetter at times after Sunday 27th.

My local weather on Sunday was partly cloudy with a few light snow flurries and highs reaching about 5 or 6 C. The weather is much more active in eastern North America with a severe weather event forming over Texas today. This will spread further east tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 22 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar, rather warm in most regions, dry apart from very isolated and brief showers, and partly cloudy on average, more cloud near the south coast than most other locations, a better chance of sunshine in central counties and western inland areas, as the coast might be subject to some afternoon cloudiness there. Winds southeast in the light to moderate range will slowly veer around more to the southwest by the weekend, remaining quite light especially around Thursday-Friday when pressure gradients will be slacker.

FORECASTS

(once again, regional differences are probably more important than day to day variations in this pattern, so the forecasts are arranged by regions to around Sunday) ...

SOUTH COAST region will see extensive cloud most days, sometimes thinning to hazy sunshine. The cloud and onshore flow will keep temperatures a bit cooler than elsewhere, in the 12-14 C range. There will be a better chance of sunny breaks towards the end of the week and into the weekend, when it might become as warm as further inland at times. Some mist or fog most nights and lows 7-10 C.

EASTERN COUNTIES especially within 30 kms of the Irish Sea will feel some chill from sea breezes but will enjoy at least moderate warmth not quite up to the same levels as further inland, highs most days 13-16 C, and overnight lows 4-7 C.

MOST REGIONS otherwise will have intervals of warm sunshine and cloudy periods, with highs 15-19 C all the way through to the weekend. Nights will be somewhat colder in a few spots if skies remain clear but overall the range of lows will be 4-7 C.

Some coastal fringes and in particular the north coast could see cooler conditions and more cloud, also a somewhat higher chance of brief showers as weak disturbances may be located over the Atlantic west of Scotland at times. Highs in those areas most often 13-16 C. Lows 5-8 C.

By about Sunday 27th this spring-like pattern is expected to break down gradually. MONDAY 28th may be a transitional day with only a slight drop in temperatures and winds changing more to the northeast at 20-40 km/hr. By TUESDAY 29th it could be considerably cooler with variable cloud and isolated showers, lows 3-5 C and highs 10-12 C. By WEDNESDAY 30th a more unsettled and somewhat wet pattern is likely to replace both the mild and cool dry air masses which will both drift further east and do battle over the North Sea and central Europe while the Atlantic takes over the regime in Ireland. The weather in the conflict zone looks almost featureless with somewhat warmer temperatures developing as the old polar air mass in place sits in place and receives some warmth from the spring sunshine. Let's hope saner heads prevail soon there.

My local weather was rather cloudy on Monday with a high near 6 C. Our very gradual spring melt continues but the snow seems to be evaporating faster than it is melting so there is very little runoff being generated, even in local streams, they haven't risen much above their usual mid-season levels.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 23 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue warm and dry to around Sunday, turning colder thereafter.

FORECASTS

Yesterday I went with a regional forecast format since it seems likely that differences will be more significant from region to region than from day to day until this warm, dry spell ends. No changes in the basic outlook there. Central inland regions will have the warmest temperatures and this will sometimes extend out towards the west coast where only weak sea breezes are likely until near the end of the warm spell this weekend, as winds turn more to the southwest. The east coast will be pleasantly warm too, but slightly cooler due to sea breezes. The south coast will take more cloud and a more significant cooling effect which may occasionally weaken towards the weekend too. Highs in most areas will be in the range of 16 to 19 C, one or two places could touch 20 degrees, and some coastal areas will be a bit cooler (13-16 C). Nights will be fairly cool and where skies remain clear there could be a ground frost in low-lying rural areas.

That will all prevail until Sunday by the looks of current guidance.

By Monday, a colder air mass will be pressing in from the north, turning winds to the northeast, with probably a fairly dry cold frontal passage that might generate one or two brief showers in Ulster and the north central midlands. It now appears that the colder air will be fairly significant and will dig in just before the Atlantic wakes up and realizes the warm spell is over, so the first wave of moisture around Tuesday night or Wednesday of next week could involve wintry falls on higher ground in the north. Temperatures by Tuesday may be as far below average as they are currently above, which is to say, around 5-8 C. That colder spell will become more unsettled towards the end of next week and from then on it looks like an active pattern with generally cool temperatures although oscillating up and down on either side of 12 C as disturbances move through.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast and just slightly milder than recent days with a high near 7 C. Meanwhile, an active frontal system that rocked Texas with severe weather on Monday moved into Louisiana and Mississippi on Tuesday, where multiple tornadoes were reported. It sounds like there has been considerable damage in the New Orleans and Biloxi regions, full assessment awaits the arrival of daylight in a few hours. (current local time is 0200h CDT).

It has been quite warm in many parts of Europe and readings of 21 C were reported in Belgium yesterday. Milder weather is spreading into Ukraine with recent highs close to 15 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 24 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 24 to 30 March 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average about 2 to 3 deg above normal values, with a higher anomaly until Sunday, then a gradual colder trend to mid-week. It may actually end up below normal by a week from now.

-- Rainfalls will amount to 50-75 per cent of normal, mostly towards the end of this interval.

-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal.

-- Light winds to Monday, then a moderate east to northeast wind flow expected.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy with sunny intervals developing, after some morning mist and fog clears away. Some showers are expected in Ulster and a few other parts of the north central counties. Dry for most other areas though. Quite warm especially inland where highs of 16 to 19 C are likely. Highs closer to 14 C near some coasts and in Ulster generally.

TONIGHT will be overcast at times, lows 5 to 8 C. Any locations that remain clear could drop a few degrees lower to about 1-3 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY this warm and settled weather pattern will continue although it is being eroded away on all sides; partly cloudy or sunny skies in the daytime hours and some mist or fog at night, highs continuing rather warm in the 15-18 C range, and overnight lows generally around 5-8 C.

MONDAY will be slightly cooler although continued dry and partly cloudy to sunny, a slight east wind will add some cooling effects in Leinster, with highs further inland 13-16 C.

TUESDAY will be cooler again with cloudy skies, scattered outbreaks of light rain, and northeast breezes 30-50 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs 9 to 11 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will be rather cold with scattered showers, some potential for wintry falls on northern hills as colder air moves gradually south across all parts of Britain and the northern portions of Ireland. Temperatures will be down several more degrees and could be only 5-8 C in the daytime hours, -1 C to +3 C at night.

A cooler brand of high pressure will then set up over Ireland and Britain for a brief stay with sharp frosts possible, daytime readings 7-10 C. This is expected to give way to an unsettled westerly flow pattern with more frequent and substantial rainfalls by early April.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast and somewhat milder again with highs around 9 C. Checking the latest reports on the tornado outbreak on Tuesday, despite a lot of damage done, the death toll seems remarkably low even up to the end of a full day of search and rescue efforts (still reported as only one person killed), but there are apparently many severely damaged houses and apartments with the tornado rated as F-3. The system lost some of its vigour yesterday as it moved through the southeast and Mid-Atlantic states with less tornadic storms as a result.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 25 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 25 to 31 March 2022

-- Temperatures will average about 2 to 3 deg above normal values, with a higher anomaly until Sunday, then a gradual colder trend to mid-week. It may actually end up below normal by a week from now. Guidance is starting to diverge on how cold it may become by about the last day of this interval.

-- Rainfalls will amount to 50-75 per cent of normal, mostly towards the end of this interval. There is also some spread in the guidance on this trend, but it should remain dry to Monday in most places.

-- Sunshine will average near normal to 25 per cent above normal.

-- Light winds to Monday, then a moderate east to northeast wind flow expected. Some sources have more of a west to northwest flow at that point.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be cloudy in some parts of Leinster and Connacht with sunny intervals developing by afternoon, while sunshine may prevail from earlier on in parts of Munster and also east Ulster. Isolated showers are possible but dry for most other areas though. Quite warm especially inland where highs of 15 to 18 C are likely. Highs closer to 14 C near some coasts.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy with lows 5 to 8 C and rather extensive mist or fog by morning. Any locations that remain clear could drop a few degrees lower to about 1-3 C.

WEEKEND will continue partly cloudy and warm with some areas of persistent cloud near south coast. Highs 15-18 C and overnight lows generally around 5-8 C.

MONDAY will be slightly cooler although continued dry and partly cloudy to sunny, a slight east wind will add some cooling effects in Leinster, with lows around 4-7 C and highs further inland 13-16 C, 11-14 C eastern counties.

TUESDAY will be cooler again with some threat of cloudier skies, possibly leading to scattered outbreaks of light rain, and northeast breezes 30-50 km/hr. Lows near 4 C and highs 9 to 11 C. Guidance is beginning to diverge and models have switched sides in the dispute too, the other outcome being suggested is a slower break down of the mild, dry weather although not a complete absence of cooler temperatures.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY have moved into the "wait and see" column with some guidance showing cold air flooding in from the north, other sources giving more of a quick return to unsettled westerly flow which would be several degrees milder. So there is some chance of seeing temperatures falling into the 5-8 C range with sleety rain possible in north to northeast winds, or a milder unsettled regime with rain and 10-13 C. With the models tending to switch roles in this ongoing "debate" I am finding it hard to pick the form horse and will just say either/or.

From that uncertain point, the next step would be either a gradual relaxation of the colder regime through several days of early April, or a series of frontal disturbances embedded in an ongoing westerly flow. That option looks rather energetic at times so it could produce gusty winds and thunderstorms embedded around 2-4 April if that's the outcome that prevails.

My local weather on Thursday was pleasant for a change, with sunshine dimmed by increasing high cloud and a high of about 12 C. The air mass is quite dry and snow is evaporating faster than it can melt, but we are seeing the "plow piles" slowly diminishing and natural snow cover otherwise is dwindling to 10-15 cms. The nearby valley has essentially lost all but the most sheltered snow and largest leftover piles, and down at the coast spring blooming has begun with cherry blossoms out and other inducements to travel down there. Much colder weather is about to hit the eastern half of the continent now that the severe weather producing system is out to sea in the western Atlantic.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 26 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 26 March to 1st April 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average about normal, as quite warm conditions today to Monday transition to quite cold (3 to 5 deg below normal) later in the period.

-- Rainfalls will average about 50 per cent of normal, with a range of 30 to 70 per cent likely from south (drier) to north (wetter).

-- Sunshine will average about normal for late March (which is around 4 hours a day now).

-- Winds light and variable at first, becoming north to northeast mid-week and increasing to moderately strong at times.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to sunny once any fog and mist dissipate, and warm again with highs 15 to 18 C.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy, becoming misty or foggy in some places, lows 4 to 7 C. Some clearer locations could drop to around freezing with slight frosts possible.

SUNDAY will be partly cloudy to sunny with highs 15 to 18 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy and continued rather warm, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 13 to 16 C.

TUESDAY will become mostly cloudy with a few showers mainly in northern counties later in the day, lows near 2 C and highs near 12 C.

WEDNESDAY will be a transitional day to colder weather, by most guidance this will be a fairly rapid change but that model disagreement that I mentioned yesterday has now been reduced to a matter of timing the onset of cold with the holdouts still delaying the arrival. So the most likely scenario is for a gradual drop in temperatures in an increasingly northwest to northerly wind of about 30-50 km/hr, outbreaks of sleety rain possible and even changing to sleet or snow on hills if the transition is fast enough. Temperatures likely will be falling slowly from near 7 C to near 2 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY are looking unseasonably cold with the chance of some wintry showers especially near the Irish Sea and off the Atlantic in parts of Connacht and west Ulster, in north to northeast winds 40-70 km/hr. Lows near -2 C and highs near 5 C both days.

This is likely to be followed by clearing skies and sharp to severe frosts (potential for around -5 C) around Saturday 2nd April then a rather slow warming trend (daytime readings staying quite low, 5-8 C, then 8-10 C a few days later), but followed by more outbreaks of rather cold air going further into April, with occasional rain or sleety mixed falls at times.

My local weather was pleasantly mild under dim sunshine through high cloud layers, highs around 14 C. Enjoy the last few days of this current warm spell where you are too (assuming that is in Ireland). It all begins to change around Tuesday.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 27 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

Note: clocks have moved forward overnight, welcome to "summer time" and the weather is co-operating.

TRENDS remain similar to yesterday: warm for two more days, then much colder in stages, rainfall may only reach about 25-50 per cent of normal and sunshine at least average if not slightly better, becoming rather windy by mid-week (north to northeast).

FORECASTS also similar and basically just extended from yesterday's message ...

TODAY SUNDAY 27th will be partly cloudy to sunny with highs 15 to 18 C.

TONIGHT some clear intervals, fog and mist patches, lows -1 to +4 C.

MONDAY will be partly cloudy and continued rather warm, lows -1 to 4 C and highs 13 to 16 C.

TUESDAY will become mostly cloudy with a few showers mainly in northern counties later in the day, lows near 2 C and highs near 12 C.

WEDNESDAY will be a transitional day to colder weather, by most guidance this will be a fairly rapid change but that model disagreement that I mentioned has almost disappeared with a compromise in effect: the most likely scenario is for a gradual drop in temperatures in an increasingly northwest to northerly wind of about 30-50 km/hr, outbreaks of sleety rain possible and even changing to sleet or snow on hills if the transition is fast enough. Temperatures likely will be falling slowly from near 7 C to near 2 C in the north, from 12 C to near 7 C in the south.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY are looking unseasonably cold with the chance of some wintry showers especially near the Irish Sea and off the Atlantic in parts of Connacht and west Ulster, in north to northeast winds 40-70 km/hr. Lows near -2 C and highs near 6 C both days.

This is likely to be followed by clearing skies and sharp to severe frosts (potential for around -4 C) around Saturday 2nd April then a rather slow warming trend (daytime readings staying quite low, 5-8 C, then 8-10 C a few days later), but followed by more outbreaks of rather cold air going further into April, with occasional rain or sleety mixed falls at times.

My local weather on Saturday was cloudy with a bit of dim sunshine at times, and continued rather mild, high of 12 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 28 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 28 March to 3 April --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal despite today's warmer than average readings.

-- Rainfalls will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal, possibly more but that comes right at the end on Sunday 3rd with some uncertainty about how much is possible then.

-- Sunshine will average about 25 per cent above normal values although some days will be rather cloudy mid-week.

-- Winds will begin to increase to moderate northeasterly at times mid-week and towards the weekend, falling back to light again then.

FORECASTS

TODAY will feature one last day of warm sunny conditions except for a few places in Leinster which could stay rather misty or foggy due to colder surface temperatures out in the Irish Sea. Highs for most 15 to 18 C, east coast 10 to 13 C. Warmer temperatures will be encountered gradually moving further inland. Isolated showers may develop in some parts of the north central counties.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy to clear with mist and fog patches, lows -1 to +3 C. Some frost possible.

TUESDAY will be a few degrees cooler although still pleasantly mild in parts of the west, with moderate east to northeast breezes developing. Highs near 14 C inland west and south, 10-12 C elsewhere. Isolated showers possible north and central inland counties.

WEDNESDAY will turn colder with northeast winds 30-50 km/hr and some higher gusts near coasts. Scattered outbreaks of light rain may become wintry on hills in the north. Morning temperatures around 7 C south, 4 C north will not rise much before falling back in the afternoon.

THURSDAY will be breezy and cold with a decent amount of sunshine in many areas but scattered bands of mixed wintry showers are likely in parts of Ulster, coastal Leinster, and also off the Atlantic in north Connacht. Lows near -2 C and highs near 7 C.

FRIDAY will be mainly sunny at first, with considerable cloud mid-day and afternoon, cold with isolated wintry showers. Lows near -3 C and highs around 5 to 8 C.

SATURDAY will probably have a sharp frost with lows -2 to -4 C, then sunshine with highs near 7 C during the day.

SUNDAY somewhat uncertain at present but with potential for occasional rain. Highs likely around 9 to 11 C.

It looks somewhat milder again around Monday 4th to Wednesday 6th April but then more cold air will be trying to push back south at times in the following days and overall it could be a rather chilly first half of April similar to last year.

My local weather on Sunday was mostly cloudy and mild with highs reaching 12 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 29 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 29 March to 4 April --

-- Temperatures will average 3 to 4 deg below normal values, despite a fairly mild day today.

-- Rainfalls will average 25 per cent of normal values.

-- Sunshine will average 25 to 50 per cent above average.

-- Winds will become moderate north to northeast for most of the interval after today's lighter wind regime.

FORECASTS

TODAY will bring increasing cloud in the north and later central regions, with outbreaks of showers expected in those regions. Highs 13 to 15 C. Partly cloudy to sunny and continued rather mild further south. Highs 14 to 17 C.

TONIGHT will be mostly cloudy with showers, turning sharply colder in northern regions. Lows near 2 C in the north, 7 C in the south.

WEDNESDAY the colder air will move steadily south and end the milder conditions in Munster by afternoon. Otherwise quite cold all day with a north to northeast breeze and scattered showers, some of which could turn wintry on higher ground. Highs near 7 C in the north, 10-12 C south (early to mid-day however).

THURSDAY to SATURDAY look very cold for this time of year, with partly cloudy skies each day, morning lows -2 to -5 C, and afternoon highs 4 to 8 C. There could be isolated wintry showers mostly over higher terrain or in bands coming in from the Irish Sea and North Atlantic in north to northeast winds of 40 to 60 km/hr. Towards Saturday winds less blustery and becoming more variable due to a weak disturbance moving south across Britain and bringing some risk of a brief interval of wet snow or sleet.

SUNDAY will probably stay quite cold but should be mostly sunny, lows near -5 C and highs near 7 C.

Although it could turn a bit milder from Monday 4th to Wednesday 6th April, highs will do well to reach normal values of 12-14 C then, and another cool to cold spell is expected later that week with daytime temperatures below 10 C again.

My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy with isolated sprinkles of rain but quite warm when the sun came out, reaching about 15 C here and 18 C down in the nearby valley for a daily record high. Very cold in the northeast U.S. but this will soon be replaced by a warm southerly flow and central regions of the U.S. will have a strong severe weather outbreak mid-week that looks potentially quite damaging for states near Tennessee and Kentucky.

After a very dry month in the conflict zone of Ukraine, spring rains are on the way, and this may complicate matters. Temperatures there have been a bit colder again in recent days but will be heading up towards 15-18 C this week.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 30 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue cold and fairly dry at first, becoming moderately wet from north to south later in the interval, with 50-75 per cent of normal amounts expected eventually. Some sunshine at times but probably not quite reaching a normal amount (for a change). Moderate northeast winds backing later to northwest.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be partly cloudy to overcast, with a few showers in northern counties. Turning colder in stages, highs around 7 C north, 10 C central and 12 to 14 C southwest.

TONIGHT will be breezy and very cold with a few wintry showers developing in parts of the north and east. Winds northeast 40-60 km/hr, lows -2 to -4 C except closer to zero in some coastal areas.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will continue partly cloudy with isolated wintry showers, and very cold for time of year, highs both days 5 to 8 C, Friday morning low also around -4 C. Some snow on hills is possible. Winds northeast to north 40-60 km/hr. Some sleet or snow accumulations are possible in eastern England at this time.

SATURDAY will be mostly cloudy with a few sleety showers, northerly winds 40-60 km/hr. Lows near -2 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY will turn somewhat milder in northwesterly winds. Early morning rain or sleet will mark the passage of a warm front, then partly cloudy with showers, winds northwest 50-70 km/hr, highs near 11 C.

Next week is looking closer to seasonal normals at this point but a reload of the cold pattern may reappear in the outlook.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and very warm, with a high close to 20 C in the nearby Columbia valley, which attracted us down there, while it reached about 15 C up here. Central states of the U.S. are bracing for an outbreak of severe storms later today and tonight from low pressure tracking through Kansas and Missouri.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 31 March, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 31 March to 6 April 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average 2-3 deg below normal. Milder Monday and Tuesday otherwise colder than the average.

-- Rainfalls will average 25 to 50 per cent of normal values. Monday-Tuesday will be the timing for most of that light rainfall.

-- Sunshine will average near normal with a few sunny days combined with mostly cloudy conditions for much of the interval.

-- Winds moderate northeast becoming moderate northwest and returning to northerly later in the interval.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly sunny with a few places closer to partly cloudy with isolated wintry showers most likely to be encountered in southeast coastal regions and in parts of Ulster and Connacht close to the Atlantic. Winds north-northeast 40-60 km/hr adding a chill to near-record cold daytime temperatures of only 4 to 7 C.

TONIGHT will become mostly clear with any wintry showers dying out, lows -2 to -4 C.

SATURDAY will bring a more extensive mixture of cloud and sunny breaks, with more widespread wintry showers possible, snow a definite possibility on higher terrain and mixed falls closer to sea level. Even so this wintry precipitation will be rather hit or miss and maximum amounts of snow on some higher terrain around 1-2 cm. Highs 4 to 7 C.

SUNDAY early morning wintry showers clearing south, a frosty start again with clear skies for a time, then increasing cloud from northwest to southeast ahead of a warm front expected to pass Sunday night. Morning lows -1 to -3 C then afternoon highs 7 to 10 C. Only slightly cooler Sunday evening.

MONDAY intervals of light rain at first, which could start as sleet in higher areas of the southeast. Variable cloud and milder by mid-day and afternoon. Highs 10 to 13 C, higher values in west Munster.

TUESDAY will be mostly cloudy with intervals of light rain or drizzle in the north and some central counties, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.

WEDNESDAY will be partly cloudy and colder with passing showers, northerly breezes 40-60 km/hr, lows near 4 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy and cold with a risk of wintry showers again, lows near -2 C and highs near 6 C.

FRIDAY 7th April will be breezy and milder with outbreaks of rain which will become rather heavy by Saturday 8th. This milder turn will bring temperatures back to the 12-14 C range before somewhat colder air spreads in from the west with occasional showers by Sunday 9th and highs 8-10 C.

The following week is expected to be unsettled and rather cool for mid-April.

My local weather on Wednesday became overcast and some rain fell during the morning, after which partial clearing set in, but the lack of sunshine more than any change in air mass kept the highs below 10 C. Widespread severe thunderstorms are now sweeping through the states of MS, TN and AL heading for the southeast U.S. Notable also, the first widespread rains are developing in the Ukraine conflict zone. Temperatures there will be in the range of 12 to 16 C.

secman

Just saying.. you left out tomorrow in the above MT

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 1 April 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

Sorry about the mix-up yesterday, I think there was enough similarity in a couple of the days that I blended them together into one (Saturday) forecast. Anyway, that sort of thing should happen today more so, I guess.

FORECASTS

TODAY will start out sunny and cold, with increasing cloud in many parts of the north and central counties. A sleety rain mixing with wet snow on higher ground will move into Ulster after mid-day and arrive in parts of north Leinster and the north midlands before sunset. Other regions may hold dry other than isolated wintry showers possible near the Atlantic or Irish Sea, winds northeast to north 30-50 km/hr. Highs 6 to 9 C.

TONIGHT some sleety mixed precipitation could continue off and on through the night in eastern counties, with more isolated wintry showers elsewhere. Some clearing may occur and bring back a threat of frost. Lows -3 to +2 C. Any snow that falls would be on higher terrain and 1-3 cm coatings there, melting sleety mixtures expected lower down. Some rather poor driving conditions may result especially in those higher areas.

SATURDAY will continue somewhat unsettled with mixed wintry showers continuing at times, with a gradual clearing trend by mid-day and afternoon. Less breezy but still a northerly direction, and quite chilly with highs 7 to 9 C.

SUNDAY will probably start out frosty and bright, then turn a bit milder mid-day, with cloud thickening by afternoon. Highs 10-13 C. Rain overnight into Monday amounting to 5-10 mm. Overnight lows 5-8 C.

MONDAY will be cloudy with a few breaks, rain tapering to showers, and mild with highs of 12-15 C.

TUESDAY will bring variable amounts of cloud and more frequent showers later in the day, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.

WEDNESDAY turns colder again with north to northeast winds returning, showers perhaps wintry by evening, temperatures steadily falling to around the 2-5 C range late in the day.

THURSDAY will be cold with isolated wintry showers and lows near -3 C, highs near 7 C.

On FRIDAY 8th April it will then start warming up again with rain, highs near 12 C. This rain will be heavy at times into Saturday 9th before turning to showers, with temperatures steady 12-14 C. Slightly colder for Sunday 10th. Variable temperature trends expected into mid-April, possibly a few warmer days in the mix towards the Easter weekend (which is the 16th-17th).

My local weather on Thursday was cold with heavy snow showers at times, not leaving much by way of accumulation, melting on contact, as temperatures were between 2 and 5 C. After our taste of real spring weather this is a setback but it's the nature of the season.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 2 April, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 2 to 8 April --

-- Temperatures will average 2 to 3 deg below normal. Somewhat milder Monday-Tuesday than the rest of the week.

-- Rainfalls will amount to 50-75 per cent of normal values.

-- Sunshine will also be in that range, with considerable cloud most days. Tomorrow might be the brightest day of the week.

-- Winds often moderate northerly, with a westerly intrusion from mid-day Monday to late Tuesday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will have a rather unsettled start, with a rather small-scale wave of low pressure now in the east midlands dropping south towards Wexford, Carlow, Kilkenny and Waterford by mid-day. Counties in this track might have an interval of rather heavy showers with hail possible and some snow on higher ground. Towards the end of its trek, this area might develop some thundery showers too. Further west, showers more isolated and briefer in duration. Also a few showers lingering in the wake of this disturbance but skies gradually brightening this afternoon. Cold with a rather brisk northerly breeze at times. Highs 7 to 10 C.

TONIGHT will see clearing skies and a sharp frost with lows -4 to -1 C.

SUNDAY will warm up reasonably fast and it will feel milder by mid-day in sunshine becoming dimmed by higher clouds. Thicker clouds with lower bases will follow, then rain will develop across the north during the late afternoon, reaching other regions by evening. Highs 9 to 12 C.

MONDAY will be partly to mostly cloudy after morning rain tapering to showers, moderate northwest winds backing to westerly 30-50 km/hr, lows around 5-8 C and highs 11-14 C.

TUESDAY will be quite cloudy in general, some brief brighter spells possible in the south, but a steady light rain across the north advancing slowly south, with some heavier bursts developing towards late afternoon and evening. Lows near 5 C and highs 9 to 12 C from north to south.

WEDNESDAY will turn sharply colder again with possible mixed wintry showers in the north, a cold showery regime further south, lows near 2 C and highs near 8 C at best.

THURSDAY will stay rather cold with isolated wintry showers followed by a dry interval with overcast skies spreading back from the south and west. Lows near -3 C and highs near 9 C.

FRIDAY will turn briefly milder with rain and highs near 13 C.

The current guidance suggests another cold spell quickly developing on the weekend of the 9th-10th followed by a rather cold mid-month, but this is enough of a reversal from a warm theme in yesterday's guidance that I suspect the models may be into a sort of flip-flop mode for a few days now, so any outcome has low confidence.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy to overcast but dry with highs near 8 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 3 April, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS remain similar to yesterday's report, a rather cold week despite a brief warmup tomorrow, off and on rainfalls not overly heavy, and rather limited sunshine after today, until perhaps later in the week. Models have made some changes for Friday and there seems like less chance of rain at the end of the week. Winds will often be from a northerly direction.

FORECASTS

TODAY will slowly warm up after a very cold start this morning with several locations reporting -4 C recently. The air is quite dry so only a few shady spots will have much of a problem with lingering frost. Sunshine will fade behind increasing cloud at about mid-day (earlier in the north) as rain moves into Ulster around early afternoon, spreading gradually south across most other regions by evening. Highs 10 to 13 C.

TONIGHT the rain will taper off to drizzle and 5-10 mm can be expected, lows around 5-8 C.

MONDAY will be milder than recent days, rather cloudy but with some brighter intervals developing, with isolated showers. Highs 11 to 14 C.

TUESDAY will be rather breezy and showers will be frequent in the north, but may hold off for most of the day in the south, with intermittent showers in central regions. Winds westerly 40-60 km/hr, lows 4-7 C and highs 10-12 C.

WEDNESDAY will become windy during the morning as a cold front moves in from the northwest, reaching the east coast around early afternoon. Intervals of rain with winds veering to northwest 50-70 km/hr, highs only 5-8 C in Ulster and north Connacht, 9-11 C further south where temperatures will fall off during the afternoon. The evening hours could bring some sleet or wet snow in parts of the north.

THURSDAY will be colder with partly cloudy skies, isolated and perhaps wintry showers, lows near -3 C and highs near 7 C.

FRIDAY currently looking more settled than previously advertised as that weather system seems to have been delayed to late in the weekend now. At the moment we'll go with partly cloudy and cool with highs 7 to 10 C.

SATURDAY will bring increasing cloud and possibly some rain by later in the day, highs 10 to 12 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY look rather wet now with highs around 13 C.

Temperatures are expected to slide back down during the course of the following week heading towards the Easter weekend. There are some indications of quite a cold turn again with blocking high pressure possibly taking up residence over northern Europe around mid-month.

My local weather on Saturday was partly cloudy and cool with one or two passing flurries in the morning, highs reaching about 7 C in the afternoon. Clear and quite cold this evening.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 4 April, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 4 to 10 April 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal, despite today and Tuesday being a bit milder.

-- Rainfalls will amount to 50 per cent of normal values.

-- Sunshine will be held down to about 50-75 per cent of normal.

-- Winds generally moderate from the west to northwest at first, more northerly later on.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be rather cloudy with a few more outbreaks of light rain or drizzle. Rather misty over higher terrain especially this morning, some improvements later particularly in the west and south. Highs 12 to 14 C.

TONIGHT will remain mostly cloudy with occasional rain spreading back into the north and some central counties, moderate westerly winds. Lows around 7 C.

TUESDAY will continue cloudy with further outbreaks of rain, heavier and more persistent in the north. Highs 10 to 12 C. Moderate westerly winds will be stronger in the north at 40-60 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY will bring showers and rather chilly west to northwest winds, lows near 7 C and highs near 10 C. Temperatures will likely fall rather steadily in the afternoon and evening in most areas, with an outbreak of rain through southern counties that could become sleety on higher ground. Showers in the north will also become wintry near the end of the day.

THURSDAY will be partly cloudy with isolated showers, wintry on higher ground. Lows near -2 C and highs near 7 C.

FRIDAY will also be cloudy with a few breaks, and either showers or intervals of light rain, staying rather cool, highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY will likely turn somewhat warmer but there may be rain at times with highs 12 to 14 C.

The current outlook for next week is reasonably mild but with colder air making another push towards Ireland this time from more of an east-northeast source over Scandinavia. This development is rather uncertain at the time range we are talking about (ten days to two weeks).

My local weather on Sunday was overcast and rather chilly with the odd passing snow flurry just leaving traces of snow or hail, and temperatures continued to range from 3 C to 7 C depending on the nearby presence of showers. We are expecting a rather wintry mixed fall later Monday then some nicer weather mid-week. The coast is preparing for very strong winds on Monday but those should moderate by the time the frontal system blows through here Monday night.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 5 April, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS for the week of 5 to 11 April, 2022 --

-- Temperatures will average 1 to 2 deg below normal. There will be some moderation in the trends after Saturday, so the average to Saturday will be around 3 to 4 below normal, and near normal after that.

-- Rainfalls will average about 75 per cent of normal. In some areas later today and tonight will be rather wet, and in all areas Sunday looks wet. Most other days will be generally dry or just showery.

-- Sunshine will be in the range of 50 to 75 per cent of normal values, which have increased to about 4 to 4.5 hours a day.

-- Winds generally moderate will peak tomorrow afternoon with some strong gusts at times then. Moderate northerly winds will set in later tomorrow and will become light to moderate easterly towards the weekend and strengthen to moderate southeast by Sunday and Monday.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be mostly cloudy, with outbreaks of rain mostly confined to the north, a few showers further south. The heavier rainfalls (5-15 mm) in the north will begin to drop further south by this evening. Highs 11-13 C. Winds moderate westerly 40-60 km/hr.

TONIGHT will continue rather wet with moderate westerly winds, lows near 7 C.

WEDNESDAY will become partly cloudy at times with passing showers that may be rather squally especially in Connacht and Ulster. Winds will increase to 50-80 km/hr west to northwest by afternoon. Some stronger gusts are possible around Donegal Bay. Highs will range from about 8 C in Ulster and north Connacht to 10 C across central counties and 12 C near the south coast. Turning colder there by late afternoon.

THURSDAY will be quite cold and breezy with passing showers that could be somewhat wintry on higher ground at least. The stronger winds will be confined to east Ulster in the morning, after which the northerly flow should moderate. Some rain at first across the south before the coldest air arrives there. Lows around -2 C in parts of the inland north, otherwise zero to 3 C. Highs 6 to 10 C.

FRIDAY will be partly cloudy and cool with isolated showers, perhaps somewhat wintry again, with lows near -3 C and highs near 8 C.

SATURDAY will continue partly cloudy and cool with lows near -3 C and highs near 8 C north, 10 C south. Increasing cloud late in the day.

SUNDAY will be wet and windy, winds turning easterly 50-70 km/hr, 10-20 mm rainfall potential. Highs around 12 C.

By MONDAY the rain will be fragmenting to patchy outbreaks of drizzle, with partial clearing and highs around 14 C.

The regime for the middle of next week looks rather bland with a general frontal boundary setting up near Britain between this somewhat milder air mass and much colder air working west out of the Baltic regions. Whether that ever arrives in Ireland or is pushed back to the east remains an open question, looks borderline at this point.

My local weather on Monday was dismal, a mixture of rain, snow and pellets with some quite heavy mixed showers at times, as a Pacific storm moved inland across our region. We escaped the winds although it was a bit breezy at times, and the highest temperature was about 4 C. No signs of spring at our elevation yet. If you're a golf fan, the weather expected for the Masters (after some heavy rain today and tomorrow) is cool and breezy for the first two days, highs near 15 C, then sunny and around 20 C on Saturday, partly cloudy and 25 C on Sunday. Good luck to the Irish contingent.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 6 April, 2022 ___ Forecasts for Ireland

TRENDS continue similar to yesterday's report, cold and unsettled at first, then cool and dry, followed by some rain by Sunday night and Monday, milder temperatures developing then.

FORECASTS

TODAY will be blustery with outbreaks of rain, rather heavy this morning across Munster into south Leinster. There may be isolated thunderstorms embedded, 10-15 mm rainfalls expected. Becoming windy around mid-day especially in north Connacht and west Ulster. Most regions will have west to northwest winds of 50-80 km/hr but there could be stronger winds (70-110 km/hr) around Donegal Bay this afternoon. Temperatures steady in the range of 8-10 C, then falling off gradually from north to south by late in the day.

TONIGHT will continue rather windy and cold with showers becoming more wintry, a mixture likely on higher terrain especially in the north where some snow seems likely on hills. Winds northwest 40-70 km/hr, lows 1 to 3 C but feeling colder.

THURSDAY will become less windy but will remain quite cold, with a few isolated wintry showers. Highs 7 to 9 C.

FRIDAY will also be cold but isolated showers will die out and there will be longer bright spells, morning lows -3 to +2 C and afternoon highs 7 to 11 C.

SATURDAY will be sunny with increasing high cloud in the south and west, still rather chilly after morning frosts, lows -4 to +2 C and highs 9 to 13 C.

SUNDAY will bring mostly cloudy skies, some rain at times near the south and west coasts, but this looks like it might hold off for at least part of the day before moving into other regions. A rather raw southeast wind of 40-70 km/hr, lows near 4 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

MONDAY will bring intervals of light rain and southeast breezes 30-50 km/hr, somewhat milder, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

The rest of the week holds some uncertainty but continues to look fairly bland and mild for Ireland, a bit colder in Britain as they get more of an outflow from a cold high over Scandinavia that is shown linking to an Atlantic high so that any cold east winds will die out over southern England and northern France, but that could of course change closer to the time so the outlook should contain at least a low percentage chance of colder weather at some point. However, if the milder pattern holds, it could then turn quite warm for a day or two near the Easter weekend or just afterwards. Hoping that's the case and would welcome the same here, Tuesday was another quite cold day here with more light snow flurries sometimes blowing around in a moderate westerly wind, highs reaching about 7 C when the sun came out. But we are expecting a few nicer days to end the week.