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20-02-2017, 20:38   #1
Sleety_Rain
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Storm Doris - Wednesday PM/Thursday AM

Strong wind-storm looks set to track east across the country late Wednesday bringing potentially disruptive winds.

Looks particularly severe due to rapid intensification of low pressure with pressure projected to drop over 30hPa as it tracks east over Ireland undergoing rapid cyclogenesis.

Expect widespread gusts to 90/100kph

Exposed regions gusts to 120kph.

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20-02-2017, 21:00   #2
Darwin
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Yes, winds look fairly strong with this event on Thursday. Interesting that GFS 12z doesn't develop this system at all (isobars form a U shape on the chart)..very strange given we are only 60 hours out.
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20-02-2017, 21:28   #3
Meteorite58
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Yes, winds look fairly strong with this event on Thursday. Interesting that GFS 12z doesn't develop this system at all (isobars form a U shape on the chart)..very strange given we are only 60 hours out.
Was wondering that myself, the WRF not making much of it either, the ARPEGE is showing stronger winds over a longer time.

Met Eireann have mentioned it also: Wednesday: Bright spells are likely across the north and east for a time on Wednesday but cloud is expected to thicken from the west as the day progresses with outbreaks of rain extending eastwards from the Atlantic in association with a rapidly deepening low pressure system. Afternoon temperatures will range from 8 to 12 degrees in strengthening southwesterly winds. The rapidly deepening low pressure system will push eastwards across the country on Wednesday night bringing the risk of gales and some heavy rain. Lowest temperatures of 3 to 6 degrees.




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20-02-2017, 21:43   #4
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I suppose the lack of support from the GFS would explain the lack of media interest.

--- looks like 18z run is beginning to catch up

Last edited by Sleety_Rain; 20-02-2017 at 21:49.
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20-02-2017, 21:59   #5
Meteorite58
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Yes, showing lower pressure and a tighter gradient .In the latest run the pressure drops about 10mbs as it crosses the UK in about 6hrs. Interesting to see if and how much the track and strength will change over the next couple of days.

Edit:The GFS is showing 12mbs of a difference less then the last run for 10.00 and has been tending to pull the center closer to Ireland as it begins to deepen.




Last edited by Meteorite58; 20-02-2017 at 22:17. Reason: Update
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20-02-2017, 23:03   #6
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Lovely ... A windstorm not effecting Kerry to much, nice to get the popcorn out and look to the east for a change

We are very lucky with the lack of storms so far this season
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21-02-2017, 00:03   #7
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The latest 18z runs by the WRF and ARPEGE looking stronger especially by the latter . Looking stronger too along the Atlantic Seaboard late Weds early Thurs morning ( will still get a slap of it here in Kerry weisses )
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21-02-2017, 06:41   #8
Graces7
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met.ie have a yellow gale warning for later today, then Wednesday night for a storm force.
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21-02-2017, 07:51   #9
secman
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Presumably this will be a named event ? Can't remember what letter we are on
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21-02-2017, 08:37   #10
Darwin
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After a quick rummage through my archives...next letter is 'D', so that would be Doris (pity it couldn't be another Darwin )
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21-02-2017, 09:01   #11
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Listened to the 7.55am forecast on Radio 1 and all I heard being mentioned was near gale force winds. Why would this be considered a sever event?
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21-02-2017, 09:16   #12
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Listened to the 7.55am forecast on Radio 1 and all I heard being mentioned was near gale force winds. Why would this be considered a sever event?
I listened as well and she said we are looking at possible distribution on Wednesday/Thursday due to strong winds and to keep listening as they will probably be issuing wind warnings later today.
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21-02-2017, 11:16   #13
Sleety_Rain
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The U.K. MetO have named Storm Doris...

Irish MetO have issued a weather advisory
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21-02-2017, 11:42   #14
JCX BXC
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met.ie have a yellow gale warning for later today, then Wednesday night for a storm force.
They issue a gale warning for every little gust of wind that comes along, it's not a land warning it's a marine warning, it's of no relevance to us at all unless you live in the middle of the Atlantic.
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21-02-2017, 11:57   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fraxinus1 View Post
Listened to the 7.55am forecast on Radio 1 and all I heard being mentioned was near gale force winds. Why would this be considered a sever event?
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They issue a gale warning for every little gust of wind that comes along, it's not a land warning it's a marine warning, it's of no relevance to us at all unless you live in the middle of the Atlantic.
STATUS YELLOW

Weather Advisory for Ireland
A rapidly deepening wave depression will track eastwards over northern parts of Ireland later Wednesday night and early on Thursday. It will bring a period of severe winds and heavy rain, with snow on northern hills. Strong to gale force southwest winds will develop overnight and become gale force northwesterly by Thursday morning with severe gusts, especially in northern and eastern areas.

More detailed updates will follow

Issued:Tuesday 21 February 2017 10:00
Valid:Thursday 23 February 2017 00:01 to Thursday 23 February 2017 11:00
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