Storm Doris - Wednesday PM/Thursday AM

Cloudio9

Aer Lingus have cancelled 12 flights to and from UK tomorrow.

tayto lover

This will probably turn out like the "no snow" a few weeks ago.

Doctor Shivering

Darwin up rooted several trees on my farm and put out the lecky for 4 days and that's on the east coast
The peak of Darwin here was 2 to 3 hrs but enough to do that damage
Northwest or west winds at my location are tempered by the Wicklow mtns though

JCX BXC

Cloudio9 wrote: »

Aer Lingus have cancelled 12 flights to and from UK tomorrow.

Wind more severe over in the UK, Birmingham for example is forecasting gusts of 60knots, and Heathrow up to 50 knots (Heathrow gets delays in a fine mist or a strong breeze!)

JCX BXC

Glasgow and Edinburgh airports are forecasting a chance of heavy snow for a time tomorrow morning!

Meteorite58

Looking very wet and squally also which will make driving conditions pretty tough in those winds

ninebeanrows

Down to 996.9hPa at Buoy M6 at 1700hrs. A few hPa lower than estimates for this time

munsterlegend

Weathercheck wrote: »

Thread level change necessary !

Great call WC..you were on the ball early with this one.

SEPT 23 1989

ominously calm in west dublin

Meteorite58

Regional Forecasts


Leinster
22 February 2017- updated at 18:00
Tonight

Becoming very windy this evening as southwesterly winds increase moderate to fresh and gusty. The rain will clear eastwards overnight but will be quickly followed by further showers which will be heavy at times. Winds will veer northwesterly in the morning, strengthening further, strong to gale force, with severe gusts in eastern coastal areas. Lowest temperatures of 4 or 5 degrees.

Tomorrow

Continuing very windy and blustery for tomorrow morning's commute with strong to gale force northwesterly winds, possibly storm force for a time along the east coast, making driving conditions challenging. Winds will ease slowly through the day, moderate to fresh by evening. It will be a cold day, with bright or sunny spells developing and some scattered showers. Highest temperatures of 5 to 6 degrees.

Gaoth Laidir

12Z ECM 925 hPa winds pretty much identical to the 00Z run. 65-70 knots 500-550 metres up so gusts not far off 60 knots at the surface along the east IMO. Also some very strong winds for Waterford and Wexford tonight.

Meteorite58

Pangea

What time are peak winds for us in the North West?

Meteorite58

Pangea wrote: »

What time are peak winds for us in the North West?

04.00 -05.00

ninebeanrows

I get the feeling this could be a nasty one. Buoy M6 now 995.3hPa at 1900hrs

pedigree 6

What's causing this potential storm?

I know you could say what causes any storm.
But is it cold air coming into contact with the unseasonal warm conditions we're having at the moment?

Thanks in advance.:)

ninebeanrows

pedigree 6 wrote: »

What's causing this potential storm?

I know you could say what causes any storm.
But is it cold air coming into contact with the unseasonal warm conditions we're having at the moment?

Thanks in advance.:)

In simple terms very tight thermal Gradient in north Atlantic causing high velocity winds aloft (jet stream) /jetstream.

If a surface wave interacts with the jet at right time and place ( right entrance or left exit)

It can develop rapidly forming a potent cyclone

ninebeanrows

Will stick my neck on line! Estimating Dublin Airport max gust of 63kt (117kph).

Deagol

You guys still estimating no disruption at the airports? Due to land at ~11:30 tomorrow morning, will be sickened if we're diverted to SNN!!

Villain

Large number of flights cancelled tomorrow so check with airline but by 11:30 you should be OK

Iancar29

Starting to look interesting on the RGB composite and Water vapour imagery.





Note the area of strong convection near the center. Could be the main cold front taking shape.

Meteorite58

Haven't used these detailed predictions before, will be interesting to look back and see how accurate they were.

Note: Gusts

Sammy2012

What was the wind direction for storm darwin. We had a lot of structural damage to buildings from that storm and just wondering is tomorows wind direction the same?

Iancar29

Sammy2012 wrote: »

What was the wind direction for storm darwin. We had a lot of structural damage to buildings from that storm and just wondering is tomorows wind direction the same?

Southwesterly...

discostu1

Wow thats cool would you have a link to that site by any chance if you dont mind sharing

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Haven't used these detailed predictions before, will be interesting to look back and see how accurate they were.

JCX BXC

Deagol wrote: »

You guys still estimating no disruption at the airports? Due to land at ~11:30 tomorrow morning, will be sickened if we're diverted to SNN!!

See my post earlier. I don't see any distribution personally.

Will update at 11pm once the later TAF's come out.

Meteorite58

Wow thats cool would you have a link to that site by any chance if you dont mind sharing

Sure

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegezoom.php?mode=11&x=2929.43&y=1825.42&ech=4&zoom=1.2

ninebeanrows

M6 at 993.3hPa at 2000.

M.T. Cranium

Strongest winds with Darwin were from about 250 deg (WSW) veering to 290 deg (WNW). Doris will be more like 270 veering to 310. Also the swath of wind damage from Darwin was further south than this event is likely to be. The two areas that should expect possible wind damage, in my opinion, would be coastal and higher exposed parts of Connacht late evening, then coastal east north of Wicklow, if locally well exposed to northwest (some places will be blocked out by hills). Drogheda to Dundalk might be worst affected other than some coastal areas of the northwest that are probably less populated and more used to damaging wind gust speeds. For north Leinster I would say 0400-0800h the critical time tomorrow morning. In the northwest, around midnight to 0300h.

This will be quite gusty in the southwest too but probably not a level 2 there, possibly not even a level one in some parts of the south but I wouldn't want anyone to think this storm is all that predictable given the spread in model guidance at 12h from event time.

M.T. Cranium

One other thing, a recent satellite image suggested centre is developing near 54N 19W which is about 200 miles west of the M6 buoy. The track is just slightly north of due east. Approximate central pressure now 985 mbs. The Arpege model probably shows the worst case scenario in terms of gradient and explosive development which takes place around 00-06z as the centre crosses Ulster. I am about 90% confident that this will verify level 2 wind warnings locally, and it could reach level 3 conditions over in Britain mid-day Thursday. The strongest wind gust potential in Ireland is probably 130 km/hr but plus or minus 15 on that given the uncertainty. Darwin got fairly close to 160 km/hr.