Storm Doris - Wednesday PM/Thursday AM

Mantis Toboggan

Barely a breeze here in central Dublin

mickger844posts

I would be confident enough to say this storm will be the biggest in the South East since storm Darwin. We normally just get the tail end of Atlantic storms but it's not the case this time. My station record gust of 104km/h could go. Don't take it lightly as this is the real deal.

Live YouTube stream on my website

www.waterfordcityweather.com

JCX BXC

Certainly picking up at the moment here in West Clare.

sparrowcar

JCX BXC wrote: »

I have heard that before, think it was Billie1b who mentioned it.

Worth mentioning that gusts are generally intermittent.

If higher speeds do come off, then there may be some disruption, either way unless the wind gusts above 60 knots I simply don't see major disruption.

That was me and you are downplaying to lightly.

Ground ops stop at 40-40kts. Pushbacks won't happen at 50kts so aircraft might be able to take off in that wind but not if they can't get off their stands.

I would expect a decent amount of disruption tomorrow at DUB. If early morning departures are delayed and stands are not vacated then there will be a knock on with slots in/out of DUB as the morning goes on.

fepper

getting windier here in kerry ,hopefully we wont get the darwin effect this time as it hit us dead on the last time

Doyler99

Nice little visual of the storm developing:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-9.69,50.15,1709/loc=23.880,34.456

JCX BXC

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Gusts by definition are intermittent. Everyone knows that.

No one said major disruption, but even so, Aer Lingus have already cancelled flights to the UK (though probably because it will be worse there). So there is already disruption due to this storm. Add to that the effect of the wind on ground ops at DUB (and Belfast, I would say). Then windshear. Crosswind gusts. There is scope for SOME disruption at the busiest time of the day.

I am talking about disruption at DUB as a result of winds there, not as a result of winds in the UK, which I'm sure will have much more disruption.

Although Windshear would be a problem, and if this storm was occurring 12 hours later I would not be saying the same thing about minimal disruption. Between 5am and 7:30am there is only 7 arrivals into Dublin, with a gap of 1hr 20mins with no arrivals between 5:25 and 6:45.

Anyway, the 11pm TAF is out soon and we can see what the gusts will be like, if they are higher, then I'll admit there may be some disruption, but it will be minimal at current forecasted values.

I'm going to burst if I say the word disruption again!

RobertKK

I am exposed from the southwest to north, sticking out on a hill at over 750ft asl, here in Kilkenny, storms from a SW to N direction are usually lively.
Will be happy to avoid a Darwin type storm which was very destructive in Kilkenny, I don't like storms that are passing over Ireland that are still deepening, the potential to be stronger than forecast is very real.

JCX BXC

sparrowcar wrote: »

That was me and you are downplaying to lightly.

Ground ops stop at 40-40kts. Pushbacks won't happen at 50kts so aircraft might be able to take off in that wind but not if they can't get off their stands.

I would expect a decent amount of disruption tomorrow at DUB. If early morning departures are delayed and stands are not vacated then there will be a knock on with slots in/out of DUB as the morning goes on.

Ah apologies.

I don't think I can say anything further that I've not already said.

ninebeanrows

Interesting to see what Mace Head reports at 2am. If Arpege is in the ballpark should be 65/70kt gust

Gaoth Laidir

JCX BXC wrote: »

I am talking about disruption at DUB as a result of winds there, not as a result of winds in the UK, which I'm sure will have much more disruption.

Although Windshear would be a problem, and if this storm was occurring 12 hours later I would not be saying the same thing about minimal disruption. Between 5am and 7:30am there is only 7 arrivals into Dublin, with a gap of 1hr 20mins with no arrivals between 5:25 and 6:45.

Anyway, the 11pm TAF is out soon and we can see what the gusts will be like, if they are higher, then I'll admit there may be some disruption, but it will be minimal at current forecasted values.

I'm going to burst if I say the word disruption again!

We get it, you don't see any disruption tomorrow morning.

JCX BXC

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

We get it, you don't see any disruption tomorrow morning.

I'll be dreaming the word tonight!

Gaoth Laidir

Latest aviation warnings:

EISN PR WRNG 01 VALID 222100/230300 EISN SURFACE PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE VALUES 997HPA AND 981HPA IN THE SHANNON FIR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD N OF N5425 AND E OF W00930=

EIDW AD WRNG 01 VALID 230230/231000 SFC WIND SW 20-25KT MAX 35-40 BECMG 2303/2306 W 35-40 MAX 50-55 BECMG 2306/2309 NW 25-30 MAX 40-45 FCST =

EICK AD WRNG 01 VALID 230100/231000 SFC WIND SW 20-25KT MAX 35-40 BECMG 2301/2304 W 25-30 MAX 40-45 BECMG 2304/2306 NW 20-25 MAX 35-40 FCST =

EINN AD WRNG 01 VALID 230030/230800 SFC WIND SW 20-25KT MAX 35-40 BECMG 2301/2303 W 30-35 MAX 45-50 BECMG 2303/2305 NW 25-30 MAX 40-45 FCST =

EIKN AD WRNG 01 VALID 230000/230800 SFC WIND SW 20-25KT MAX 35-40 BECMG 2301/2303 NW 25-30 MAX 40-45 BECMG 2303/2305 NW 20-25 MAX 35-40 FCST =

EIME AD WRNG 01 VALID 230000/231000 SFC WIND SW 20-25KT MAX 35-40 BECMG 2302/2305 W 35-40 MAX 50-55 BECMG 2306/2308 WNW 25-30 MAX 40-45 FCST

squarecircles

Looks like I'm going to get a battering here,in louisburgh,west Mayo,1 mile from the sea.

km79

squarecircles wrote: »

Looks like I'm going to get a battering here,in louisburgh,west Mayo,1 mile from the sea.

Yikes!
Be safe

Gaoth Laidir

Dublin's 2300Z TAF still only going for 50-kt gusts from around 3-9 am. I reckon they can add 5-10 knots to that.

JCX BXC

11pm TAF for Dublin gives the wind as 35kts G 50kts from 3am-5am, after which it drops to 7am-9am 30kts G 45kts.

I don't see any reason to expect disruption, unless the winds are higher than forecast.

Oscar Bravo

Cold front now gathering just off the west coast and will be very squally.

ninebeanrows

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Dublin's 2300Z TAF still only going for 50-kt gusts from around 3-9 am. I reckon they can add 5-10 knots to that.

Looks too short to me. I'd prob have gone 58 if providing to airport you have a +- 5kt range at EIDW

Gaoth Laidir

JCX BXC wrote: »

11pm TAF for Dublin gives the wind as 35kts G 50kts from 3am-5am, after which it drops to 7am-9am 30kts G 45kts.

I don't see any reason to expect disruption, unless the winds are higher than forecast.

No, BECMG 50 knots some time between 3 and 5 am, then staying at that until it starts to BECMG 45 knots from 7 to 9 am. So theoretically, we should see the strongest gusts defintely between 5-7 am but also possibly outside of that window too. Scores of flights in that period.

Doctor Shivering

You know those scenes in star wars where Obi one first says to the imperial guard in Moss Isley " There will be no disruption
There's nothing to see here
Move along now "

JCX BXC

We shall see. I see no reason to expect disruption based on that forecast, which has been consistent all day.

pnpweirdo

The ground is saturated here in limerick since it hasn't stopped raining since the early hours of Sunday morning. Non stop. Not a night to be out driving trees could early be up rooted.

M.T. Cranium

We are about to find out if the Arpege is state of the art, or just in a state.

My hunch is that its early depictions are a bit overdone but not by much, the later portions are probably on the money (from eastern Ireland onwards).

Predicting peak gusts of 75 knots Belmullet, 60 knots Dublin A and near 70 knots on east coast north of Dublin, 80 knots exposed locations Isle of Man and Lancs. You can pretty much double those numbers to estimate km/hr. (minus 7%).

Gaoth Laidir

JCX BXC wrote: »

We shall see. I see no reason to expect disruption based on that forecast, which has been consistent all day.

But I've been saying all day that it seems too low.

Brianmeath

The calm before the storm. Not a breeze here in meath.

Oscar Bravo

11pm reports, gusts starting to come in, Mace head and Belmullet both gusting 34 knots. they are the ones to watch in the coming few hours. 990hpa now at Belmullet

Fiskar

Flight at 6.25 from DA, wondering if it will be delayed?

coillsaille

Fiskar wrote: »

Flight at 6.25 from DA, wondering if it will be delayed?

Ah jaysus..

JCX BXC

Fiskar wrote: »

Flight at 6.25 from DA, wondering if it will be delayed?

I say no, others think yes.

Overall, maybe.