Storm Doris - Wednesday PM/Thursday AM

Clonmel1000

fraxinus1 wrote: »

It's a Irish February typical wind event. Seriously we are turning into the USA... a bit of bad weather and there are tv reporters hyping everyone up with live reports showing a few puddles or a blown down 3 year old 'tree'.

You wouldn't want to read some of the snow "event" threads here if you think that's bad but you're point is well made.

Oscar Bravo

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

You wouldn't want to read some of the snow "event" threads here if you think that's bad but you're point is well made.

Haha that's for sure

Meteorite58

The ARPEGE has brought the winds down further S with the SW getting the winds first and then the E coast getting the strongest winds somewhere between 06.00-10.00 , thereafter the storm becomes it's strongest as it moves across the UK.

The WRF not showing anything as strong for Ireland at this stage.

The GFS similar to the ARPEGE

Gaoth Laidir

John Eagleton (it definitely was him this evening) made no mention of disruption or wind warnings on the 17.55 radio broadcast. Just said windy overnight Wednesday.

Doctor Shivering

fraxinus1 wrote: »

It's a Irish February typical wind event. Seriously we are turning into the USA... a bit of bad weather and there are tv reporters hyping everyone up with live reports showing a few puddles or a blown down 3 year old 'tree'.

Well tbh,120-130kmph winds in Wicklow ala that arpege posted wouldn't be that common...

sword1

loveisdivine wrote: »

Could do without this. Live on a hill just outside Dundalk and the strong winds we had for a couple of days last week broke 3 of our fence panels and a few other items.

To be honest if it did damage last week then the fence is not up to the job and it might be safer knock it now rather than wait for the pieces of it to do other damage if we actually get a storm this winter. The wind was mainly easterly last so maybe your fence will be sheltered from this breeze

Iancar29

fraxinus1 wrote: »

It's a Irish February typical wind event. Seriously we are turning into the USA... a bit of bad weather and there are tv reporters hyping everyone up with live reports showing a few puddles or a blown down 3 year old 'tree'.

Theres a criteria for dangerous weather as set by Europe. Wether you think its just a soft day for your location or not, there is still potential for disruption and, to an extent a risk to life. So by all means we have the reason to discuss it here in a scientific manner and not, as per some media outlets, hype it up.

kittyn

Iancar29 wrote: »

Theres a criteria for dangerous weather as set by Europe. Wether you think its just a soft day for your location or not, there is still potential for disruption and, to an extent a risk to life. So by all means we have the reason to discuss it here in a scientific manner and not, as per some media outlets, hype it up.

I think your either damned if you do and damned if you don't when it comes to putting up warnings on here and Met Eireann ........

My definition of a disruptive wind event, is when I can't light my cigarette with my Zippo.

Meteorite58

Well the APERGE 18z is rolling out just now and is coming up far stronger then the previous run, the GFS is coming up weaker . The central UK looks like it is going to get hammered.

What do people think, the French model got a better handle on it ? Orange warning some Eastern counties perhaps for a brief time Thurs morning.

Meteorite58

Just adding this in here to show how Storm Doris is just beginning to strengthen when it passes over us , the chart below is when it slams into the Netherlands . High tide there about 12.00 , next Spring tide 5 days off.

Mean wind speed in Kt's.

ninebeanrows

Looks like Greater Dublin area is in for a decent whallop for tomorrow mornings rush hour. Westerly winds gusting 100-110km/HR from approx 4am-7am potentially reaching 120km/HR in places 7-9am before gradually easing.

Graces7

Seriously wondering if I have done a Rip Van Winkle and this is Wednesday as it is ferocious up here. Beginning to think wind is the default weather here. West Galway 400ft asl ish.

ninebeanrows

Tomorrow's system looks relatively similar to the storm of 2 January 1976. Now it currently isn't progged to be quite as severe but the synoptic chart looks quite similar, the 1976 storm was somewhat more developed just off our west shore but only by around 5hPa and we are yet to see Doris begin its rapid development phase.

Here is the reanalyses of the 1976 storm

ninebeanrows

Weathercheck wrote: »

Tomorrow's system looks relatively similar to the storm of 2 January 1976. Now it currently isn't progged to be quite as severe but the synoptic chart looks quite similar, the 1976 storm was somewhat more developed just off our west shore but only by around 5hPa and we are yet to see Doris begin its rapid development phase.

Here is the reanalyses of the 1976 storm

I would not be surprised to see an Orange warning issued today as it looks like somewhere will record at least a 60 knot gust as Doris races east.

Looks dangerous for parts of north/central England... Potential 70/75 knot gusts, even inland

fixXxer

spookwoman wrote: »

Looking at sea swell reports not going to be much waves

Where did you see this? Was thinking of hanging around the Dun Laoghaire coast to look out for photo ops.

DOCARCH

fixxxer wrote: »

Where did you see this? Was thinking of hanging around the Dun Laoghaire coast to look out for photo ops.

With wind off the land/from the west, there would not be much to see in DunLaoghaire.

Doctor Shivering

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looks like Greater Dublin area is in for a decent whallop for tomorrow mornings rush hour. Westerly winds gusting 100-110km/HR from approx 4am-7am potentially reaching 120km/HR in places 7-9am before gradually easing.

That will definitely impact early departures at Dublin Airport and quite possibly the early USA arrivals
Dublin Airport is very exposed to westerlies

ninebeanrows

Doctor Shivering wrote: »

That will definitely impact early departures at Dublin Airport and quite possibly the early USA arrivals
Dublin Airport is very exposed to westerlies

Yea it is exposed but that direction is right down the throat of the runway so unsure of cross-wind? Might affect ground ops nonetheless.

pedigree 6

Will the wind direction dampen down the strength and possible damage done from this system i.e for the east coast when the wind is coming from the land dumbing down the speed as opposed to coming from the open water of the sea with no obstacles?

One to watch but it be could be much worse if there was a different wind direction.



(I think I've resorted to talking to myself and answering my own questions. ):)

Graces7

Orange alert warning now on met.ie as was predictable.

munsterlegend

DOCARCH wrote: »

fixxxer wrote: »

Where did you see this? Was thinking of hanging around the Dun Laoghaire coast to look out for photo ops.

With wind off the land/from the west, there would not be much to see in DunLaoghaire.

MT in his morning forecast also made the point of very low tides in the east as will be going towards England /wales. A trip out to the airport to watch the planes may be more interesting.

fixXxer

munsterlegend wrote: »

MT in his morning forecast also made the point of very low tides in the east as will be going towards England /wales. A trip out to the airport to watch the planes may be more interesting.

Cheers, may give it a look so

Mantis Toboggan

Graces7 wrote: »

Orange alert warning now on met.ie as was predictable.

Still showing yellow for me?

Graces7

Tyson Fury wrote: »

Still showing yellow for me?

ah referring to the marine gale warning.. will follow.... so near the coast here that always watch the marine

Doctor Shivering

Tyson Fury wrote: »

Still showing yellow for me?

It's the small craft warning that's orange
Normal forecast is still yellow

A bit academic as what small craft would in their right mind be in the Irish Sea in well flagged enough in advance 120kmph winds?

Darwin

The Orange is a marine warning only.

Gaoth Laidir

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Will the wind direction dampen down the strength and possible damage done from this system i.e for the east coast when the wind is coming from the land dumbing down the speed as opposed to coming from the open water of the sea with no obstacles?

One to watch but it be could be much worse if there was a different wind direction.



(I think I've resorted to talking to myself and answering my own questions. ):)

It'll probably be gustier (higher gust factor) so windshear will be a factor for aircraft at DUB. Also, these gusts will be more from a crosswind (northerly) direction for runway 28, so we may see them using runway 34 more than normal tomorrow morning (they usually use it for morning rush hour takeoffs anyway).

Also, Doris will have a sex-change as she crosses the English Channel as the Germans have named the storm Thomas.

RuthieRose

My sister is supposed to be getting a flight at 2pm tomorrow from London to Dublin. Do you think there will be delays from Dormas (Doris/Thomas - see what I did there!!)

Wanderer78

Gaoth Laidir wrote:

Also, Doris will have a sex-change as she crosses the English Channel as the Germans have named the storm Thomas.

This transgender stuff is getting out of hand!