Storm Doris - Wednesday PM/Thursday AM

Doctor Shivering

JCX BXC wrote: »

See my post earlier. I don't see any distribution personally.

Will update at 11pm once the later TAF's come out.

I think he's safe enough at 1130 am but I do think you're brave calling no disruption at all in Dublin Airport due to this at its peak between 5am and 9am

Cards on table, like most here,I am just an amateur Observer/enthusiast, Is that what you are aswell or do you have actual skin in the weather forecasting game?
You could of course be right but if there's an orange warning in east Leinster and a squal between 6 and 8am,I don't see how Dub would escape disruption however brief

JCX BXC

Doctor Shivering wrote: »

I think he's safe enough at 1130 am but I do think you're brave calling no disruption at all in Dublin Airport due to this at its peak between 5am and 9am

Cards on table, like most here,I am just an amateur Observer/enthusiast, Is that what you are aswell or do you have actual skin in the weather forecasting game?
You could of course be right but if there's an orange warning in east Leinster and a squal between 6 and 8am,I don't see how Dub would escape disruption however brief

In the weather side of things, I'm nothing but a long-time observer like yourself and many on here.

I appreciate you have a different viewpoint, and don't think we should dwell too much on it here on the weather forum, but I'll say this, the rate of arrivals is very low in the morning, most will avoid peak winds. Departures seem to handle poor weather better than arrivals, as long as the crosswind is acceptable, departures generally take off in most weather, unless of course it's heading towards a major cell or squall.

Also, I would like to say, I wouldn't consider 1 or 2 go-arounds or delays under 30mins disruption, as those things can often happen in fair weather!

4068ac1elhodqr

The timing (7am-9am: rush hour) and location (M1 & Airport: peak population/traffic) could signal possible travel delays, as there is a fair few exposed areas along that stretch for the 130kph cross-winds. Would not like to in a high-sided, lightly-loaded vehicle.

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/834491279908204545

ninebeanrows

M6 buoy gone 991.5hPa at 2100hrs. Doris is gearing up and definitely deeper than models have progged. Concerning

discostu1

Many thanks

1

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Sure

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegezoom.php?mode=11&x=2929.43&y=1825.42&ech=4&zoom=1.2

sparrowcar

Weathercheck wrote: »

M6 buoy gone 991.5hPa at 2100hrs. Doris is gearing up and definitely deeper than models have progged. Concerning

That last word as both excited me and made me nervous.

JCX BXC

sparrowcar wrote: »

That last word as both excited me and made me nervous.

It's been one of the most boring winters yet, I think we're all a little excited , even if there is some minor disruption!

Meteorite58

Probably wont be until around midnight before we start to see significant winds appear off the SW / W coast

weisses

JCX BXC wrote: »

It's been one of the most boring winters yet, I think we're all a little excited , even if there is some minor disruption!

I'm happy I can sit this one out in relative ease here in west Kerry .. Nothing we can't handle ... Bit windier in Clare I would say

JCX BXC

weisses wrote: »

I'm happy I can sit this one out in relative ease here in west Kerry .. Nothing we can't handle ... Bit windier in Clare I would say

Doubt it'll be anything we're not used to!

redsteveireland

Graces7 really isn't having much luck, the weather is following her.

coillsaille

redsteveireland wrote: »

Graces7 really isn't having much luck, the weather is following her.

I'm sure she was prepared for it when she moved to the coast at 400ft asl.

ninebeanrows

Latest arpege is brutal from Mayo to Dublin.. Possible RED territory

Gaoth Laidir

JCX BXC wrote: »

In the weather side of things, I'm nothing but a long-time observer like yourself and many on here.

I appreciate you have a different viewpoint, and don't think we should dwell too much on it here on the weather forum, but I'll say this, the rate of arrivals is very low in the morning, most will avoid peak winds. Departures seem to handle poor weather better than arrivals, as long as the crosswind is acceptable, departures generally take off in most weather, unless of course it's heading towards a major cell or squall.

Also, I would like to say, I wouldn't consider 1 or 2 go-arounds or delays under 30mins disruption, as those things can often happen in fair weather!

You're forgetting about the effect on ground ops. A poster earlier said something like 45 knots affected it, 50 knots stopped things (I think). Stairs, cargo doors, etc. With a wind from that direction virtually all stands are affected

ninebeanrows

18z Arpege not for the faint of heart!

Meteorite58

The 18z HIRLAM 925hPa Winds

squarecircles

Wind steadily rising here on the coast,in west Mayo,howling in the chimney now,it was such a notably calm day.

Not sure what to expect here.

ninebeanrows

squarecircles wrote: »

Wind steadily rising here on the coast,in west Mayo,howling in the chimney now,it was such a notably calm day.

Not sure what to expect here.

I think you are about to get slammed with 120kph gusts :eek:

Xenji

squarecircles wrote: »

Wind steadily rising here on the coast,in west Mayo,howling in the chimney now,it was such a notably calm day.

Not sure what to expect here.

Dead calm in Castlebar, eerily so, but have no work tomorrow so its out with the whiskey and wait to see what unfolds.

JCX BXC

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

You're forgetting about the effect on ground ops. A poster earlier said something like 45 knots affected it, 50 knots stopped things (I think). Stairs, cargo doors, etc. With a wind from that direction virtually all stands are affected

I have heard that before, think it was Billie1b who mentioned it.

Worth mentioning that gusts are generally intermittent.

If higher speeds do come off, then there may be some disruption, either way unless the wind gusts above 60 knots I simply don't see major disruption.

cherryghost

Jaysis some upgrade on the storm this evening. West will get a battering from about 2am-6am

ninebeanrows

ARPEGE 4am.. Wow

Oscar Bravo

Latest satellite http://en.sat24.com/en

Oscar Bravo

wow, looks like Mayo is gonna be hit big time

coillsaille

Picking up here now in Connemara. The full length windows are starting to flex in and out, haven't seen that yet this winter.

pad199207

Weathercheck wrote: »

ARPEGE 4am wow :eek::eek:

Possible sting jet associated with that maybe ?

km79

OK that's scary

Four Phucs Ache

Dead calm in laois at the moment.Not even a slight breeze.

Gaoth Laidir

JCX BXC wrote: »

I have heard that before, think it was Billie1b who mentioned it.

Worth mentioning that gusts are generally intermittent.

If higher speeds do come off, then there may be some disruption, either way unless the wind gusts above 60 knots I simply don't see major disruption.

Gusts by definition are intermittent. Everyone knows that.

No one said major disruption, but even so, Aer Lingus have already cancelled flights to the UK (though probably because it will be worse there). So there is already disruption due to this storm. Add to that the effect of the wind on ground ops at DUB (and Belfast, I would say). Then windshear. Crosswind gusts. There is scope for SOME disruption at the busiest time of the day.