Storm Doris - Wednesday PM/Thursday AM

antodeco

I'm due to land in London around 8am Friday morning (from the US) and the out from London to Dublin to land at 12pm Friday.

Will I be in for a bumpy ride it will most of the storm have dissipated by then?

ninebeanrows

Looking at developments I would be thinking an ORANGE land warning may be necessary.

- East Ulster/ north Leinster to take brunt of 'sting' tomorrow morning from around 5-9am...

I'd be erring towards gusts to 100/110kph quite widely in this region with local gusts to 120, even 130kph.

ninebeanrows

Evening model updates are upping the ante..

I hope people have taken precautions...

pad199207

Weathercheck wrote: »

Evening model updates are upping the ante..

I hope people have taken precautions...

Oooooh now that's nasty for the GDA. Certain orange warning territory now

Cantona's Collars

I know it might seem odd for those who suffer from damage from weather events but as a person living in the South East where we get away fairly light apart from floods in Enniscorthy every few years I like a good storm.We tend to miss out on them,watching charts and seeing the storms veer North most of the time.
It's easy to know people down here aren't used to it,the last time we had a big one I met folks walking along back roads with boughs of trees falling around them.Do people really want to get killed or injured for the sake of their evening stroll?

ninebeanrows

Low centre should pass close to this buoy around 7/8pm, will be interesting to see what central pressure hits...

Currently falling rapidly with pressure of 1001.5hPa

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=62095&unit=M&tz=STN

squarecircles

Teresa mannion spots batlight from atop dance rehersal studio*

ninebeanrows

Here is the UK and Ireland view of the 12z ARPEGE

Nastiest I've seen at this time range for Dublin

sword1

zerks wrote: »

I know it might seem odd for those who suffer from damage from weather events but as a person living in the South East where we get away fairly light apart from floods in Enniscorthy every few years I like a good storm.We tend to miss out on them,watching charts and seeing the storms veer North most of the time.
It's easy to know people down here aren't used to it,the last time we had a big one I met folks walking along back roads with boughs of trees falling around them.Do people really want to get killed or injured for the sake of their evening stroll?

You must have been there to meet them, they might have been saying the same thing about you, presume you were driving, sometimes it is safer walking

Meteorite58

Just looking through the ARPEGE on the phone and would appear to be a big upgrade in wind speeds from Connaught across to Leinster from about 02.00 to 09.00 , crossing the country quickly. GFS still not making too much of it.

Could be getting an upgrade in warnings shortly.

Going by the ARPEGE this would bring a lot of counties into Orange warning territory.

cherryghost

I often find this to be accurate within a 24hr timeframe:
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=2&map=330

Compared to last run the storms already looking deeper and more organized hitting the west coast

7am tomorrow in latest run vs last run:
Latest:


This morning:

ninebeanrows

I found this nice /ultra hi res model on Meteociel.

The AROME, some nice graphics.

Picture at 7am IrishTime....Wrap arround occlusion over north Leinster...



Wind gusts 100-120kph in Greater Dublin area...

kittensmittens

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

It will be very windy for a time tomorrow morning in an area (Dublin) where large volumes of people will be on the move going to work. A valid thread on this occasion and well done to OP for starting it in good time

Every time I hear that there may be a risk of wind during busy times in Dublin, the first thing that always comes to my mind is that poor woman that was killed in the south city a couple of years back by a falling tree limb during high wind.
You then get on here and the moaners give out about it "being drama over a bit of breeze".

Well done to all the knowledgeable folks on here who post. NEVER any harm in giving people a bit of a warning to be aware

Oneiric 3

Hi res Arome model gust speeds (based on 6z)

positron

GBX wrote: »

For the first time since I moved office to Clontarf, I may consider public transport because I reckon it'll be a tad wild for my motorbike

Also considering my commute options for tomorrow morning, over the years I've come to a conclusion that I can only handle around 35-40 kmph winds on M1 on the motorbike. Some of the charts posted here shows speeds around 80 kmph and above.

Oscar Bravo

Dublin airport forecast (TAF) updated at 1700 showing strongest winds now earlier between 4am and 6am gusting to 50knots from the west/north west easing back slightly between 6am and 8am but remaining very blustery all day. (Knock and Shannon going for strongest winds between 1am - 3am)

munsterlegend

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Hi res Arome model gust speeds (based on 6z)

That looks very wild for England and Wales.

JCX BXC

I posted an update on the weather tomorrow for Irish airports here:

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=102706188&postcount=272

I don't foresee any disruption

ninebeanrows

Pressure at the M6 buoy has fallen to 998.7 mb (falling rapidly)

Looking at models, that would be close to or a little lower than forecast.

ninebeanrows

Very nasty EURO4 12z. Indications are that Doris is deepening more quickly than expected and Ireland now looks like it is in the firing line for some significant wind gusts..

P_1

Weathercheck wrote: »

I found this nice /ultra hi res model on Meteociel.

The AROME, some nice graphics.

Picture at 7am IrishTime....Wrap arround occlusion over north Leinster...

[IMG]http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome_uk1/runs/2017022212/aromehd-54-19-0.png?22-16[/I.MG] Wind gusts 100-120kph in Greater Dublin area...[/img]

So I should probably leave the bike at home in the morning so

Tropheus

Just back from a walk here in North County Dublin. Although it's starting to rain, it's eerily calm. The proverbial calm before the storm by the looks of it.

horsefarm

kittensmittens wrote: »

Every time I hear that there may be a risk of wind during busy times in Dublin, the first thing that always comes to my mind is that poor woman that was killed in the south city a couple of years back by a falling tree limb during high wind.
You then get on here and the moaners give out about it "being drama over a bit of breeze".

Well done to all the knowledgeable folks on here who post. NEVER any harm in giving people a bit of a warning to be aware

A few weeks ago during the last wind event a tree fell right at school collection time. We all parked our cars, walked over to collect the kids, got back to the cars and the tree was down on top of a car. Had it fallen 5 minutes earlier or 5 minutes later there could have been a very serious accident. Wind events should always be taken seriously

Gaoth Laidir

Weathercheck wrote: »

Very nasty EURO4 12z. Indications are that Doris is deepening more quickly than expected and Ireland now looks like it is in the firing line for some significant wind gusts..

So in that case it will probably track a bit further north than previously forecast.

Oscar Bravo

UPDATE from met eireann

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Dublin, Kildare, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow and Meath.
Update on wind warning:
Winds may increase higher than the general yellow warning, in eastern areas, for a time, later tonight and early Thursday morning, with northwest winds of mean winds of 70 to 80 km/h giving gusts up to 110 to 120km/h possible.

Issued:Wednesday 22 February 2017 17:00
Valid:Thursday 23 February 2017 05:00 to Thursday 23 February 2017 09:00

JCX BXC

Interesting, quite rare for a wind event on the East Coast being stronger than the West Coast

ninebeanrows

Thread level change necessary !

jimmynokia

So do we have an event or just strong winds then....

JCX BXC

jimmynokia wrote: »

So do we have an event or just strong winds then....

Depends on where you are, if you're on the East/South East coast it'll be probably more severe than you're used to, anywhere else and it's just a few strong gusts.

jimmynokia

JCX BXC wrote: »

Depends on where you are, if you're on the East/South East coast it'll be probably more severe than you're used to, anywhere else and it's just a few strong gusts.

Liffey Valley area..Might see my bin blown over then...:D:D