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Storm Doris - Wednesday PM/Thursday AM

  • 20-02-2017 9:38pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    Strong wind-storm looks set to track east across the country late Wednesday bringing potentially disruptive winds.

    Looks particularly severe due to rapid intensification of low pressure with pressure projected to drop over 30hPa as it tracks east over Ireland undergoing rapid cyclogenesis.

    Expect widespread gusts to 90/100kph

    Exposed regions gusts to 120kph.

    ECU1-72.GIF


«13456722

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,526 ✭✭✭ Darwin


    Yes, winds look fairly strong with this event on Thursday. Interesting that GFS 12z doesn't develop this system at all (isobars form a U shape on the chart)..very strange given we are only 60 hours out.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Darwin wrote: »
    Yes, winds look fairly strong with this event on Thursday. Interesting that GFS 12z doesn't develop this system at all (isobars form a U shape on the chart)..very strange given we are only 60 hours out.

    Was wondering that myself, the WRF not making much of it either, the ARPEGE is showing stronger winds over a longer time.

    Met Eireann have mentioned it also: Wednesday: Bright spells are likely across the north and east for a time on Wednesday but cloud is expected to thicken from the west as the day progresses with outbreaks of rain extending eastwards from the Atlantic in association with a rapidly deepening low pressure system. Afternoon temperatures will range from 8 to 12 degrees in strengthening southwesterly winds. The rapidly deepening low pressure system will push eastwards across the country on Wednesday night bringing the risk of gales and some heavy rain. Lowest temperatures of 3 to 6 degrees.


    BSisGWI.png

    94CKdEh.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    I suppose the lack of support from the GFS would explain the lack of media interest.

    --- looks like 18z run is beginning to catch up


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Yes, showing lower pressure and a tighter gradient .In the latest run the pressure drops about 10mbs as it crosses the UK in about 6hrs. Interesting to see if and how much the track and strength will change over the next couple of days.

    Edit:The GFS is showing 12mbs of a difference less then the last run for 10.00 and has been tending to pull the center closer to Ireland as it begins to deepen.

    rgKhEY5.gif

    HwBztzm.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,107 ✭✭✭ weisses


    Lovely ... A windstorm not effecting Kerry to much, nice to get the popcorn out and look to the east for a change :D

    We are very lucky with the lack of storms so far this season


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The latest 18z runs by the WRF and ARPEGE looking stronger especially by the latter . Looking stronger too along the Atlantic Seaboard late Weds early Thurs morning ( will still get a slap of it here in Kerry weisses:) )


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,517 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    met.ie have a yellow gale warning for later today, then Wednesday night for a storm force.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,623 ✭✭✭ secman


    Presumably this will be a named event ? Can't remember what letter we are on :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,526 ✭✭✭ Darwin


    After a quick rummage through my archives...next letter is 'D', so that would be Doris (pity it couldn't be another Darwin :pac: )


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 240 ✭✭ fraxinus1


    Listened to the 7.55am forecast on Radio 1 and all I heard being mentioned was near gale force winds. Why would this be considered a sever event?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,454 ✭✭✭ Storm 10


    fraxinus1 wrote: »
    Listened to the 7.55am forecast on Radio 1 and all I heard being mentioned was near gale force winds. Why would this be considered a sever event?

    I listened as well and she said we are looking at possible distribution on Wednesday/Thursday due to strong winds and to keep listening as they will probably be issuing wind warnings later today.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    The U.K. MetO have named Storm Doris...

    Irish MetO have issued a weather advisory


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Graces7 wrote: »
    met.ie have a yellow gale warning for later today, then Wednesday night for a storm force.

    They issue a gale warning for every little gust of wind that comes along, it's not a land warning it's a marine warning, it's of no relevance to us at all unless you live in the middle of the Atlantic.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭ Iancar29


    fraxinus1 wrote: »
    Listened to the 7.55am forecast on Radio 1 and all I heard being mentioned was near gale force winds. Why would this be considered a sever event?
    JCX BXC wrote: »
    They issue a gale warning for every little gust of wind that comes along, it's not a land warning it's a marine warning, it's of no relevance to us at all unless you live in the middle of the Atlantic.

    STATUS YELLOW

    Weather Advisory for Ireland
    A rapidly deepening wave depression will track eastwards over northern parts of Ireland later Wednesday night and early on Thursday. It will bring a period of severe winds and heavy rain, with snow on northern hills. Strong to gale force southwest winds will develop overnight and become gale force northwesterly by Thursday morning with severe gusts, especially in northern and eastern areas.

    More detailed updates will follow

    Issued:Tuesday 21 February 2017 10:00
    Valid:Thursday 23 February 2017 00:01 to Thursday 23 February 2017 11:00


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Not the warning I was talking about, also note that was issued at 10am and the post I quoted was at 6am which was referring to the Marine gale warning.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭ Iancar29


    This will come down to a nowcast situation, with the rapid cyclogenesis expected, we will need to watch out for the possibility of a sting jet on it's southern flank (see sample below). Atm it looks like its main period of rapid intensification will be just as its starts moving over Ireland so Nothern England, S. Scotland could see the worst of it.

    hirlamuk-2-48-0_xlg6.png


    Highlands of Scotland could see nearly a foot of snow in places...
    hirlamuk-1-48-0_vso9.png
    Marginal case though for snow over here, only on the highest peaks id imagine for a few cms IMO.

    Sting Jet 3rd Jan, 2012 ( Note the "scorpion tale" )
    120103_met9_wv_anim.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,517 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    They issue a gale warning for every little gust of wind that comes along, it's not a land warning it's a marine warning, it's of no relevance to us at all unless you live in the middle of the Atlantic.

    As I am coastal it does apply :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Graces7 wrote: »
    As I am coastal it does apply :rolleyes:

    I am also coastal, and most of these unaccompanied marine warnings are nothing more than a breezy day.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,392 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    1336 met eireann update

    Wednesday night: Heavy rain developing countrywide, as southwesterly winds increase strong to gale overnight, with strong gale to storm force gusts developing along western, southern and eastern coasts. Rain turning to squally showers, some thundery with a risk of hail, sleet and hill snow, especially in northern areas, as winds veer strong to gale force northwesterly. Lows of 3 to 6 degrees generally, but possibly 1 or 2 degrees by dawn in Ulster.


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,517 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    I am also coastal, and most of these unaccompanied marine warnings are nothing more than a breezy day.

    Bless you!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,460 ✭✭✭ loveisdivine


    Could do without this. Live on a hill just outside Dundalk and the strong winds we had for a couple of days last week broke 3 of our fence panels and a few other items.


  • Registered Users Posts: 33,709 Cantona's Collars


    UKMO image:

    3D7B489C00000578-4245058-Storm_Doris_pictured_on_Thursday-m-10_1487682198827.jpg

    This focuses on the UK but we'll get it first:

    3D7B9B8A00000578-4245058-image-a-8_1487677779284.jpg

    3D7B9B8E00000578-4245058-image-m-7_1487677774969.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,392 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    Update from Met Eireann on "Doris"

    STATUS YELLOW

    Wind Warning for Munster, Connacht and Leinster.
    Some severe winds expected later Wednesday night and on Thursday morning, in association with storm Doris.
    Southwest winds of mean speeds 50 to 65km/h will develop giving gusts of 90 to 110km/h. Winds will veer northwesterly later in the night. Winds will be strongest in coastal counties.

    Issued:Tuesday 21 February 2017 14:00
    Valid:Thursday 23 February 2017 00:01 to Thursday 23 February 2017 11:00


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,531 ✭✭✭ whippet


    i'm on the north east coast .. should be a good tester for the new shed I put in the garden during the summer


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭ squarecircles


    any chance of this turning into a 'real' storm ?, orange warning,sting jets,squall lines etc.

    110kmph is childs play in Mayo.

    none the less, after such a quiet winter,wind wise,im sure it will come as a shock.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,847 Armchair Andy


    Any chance of airport disruptions tomorrow or Wednesday? Flying Thursday from Dublin?


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,457 ✭✭✭ spookwoman


    Looking at sea swell reports not going to be much waves


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,623 ✭✭✭ secman


    whippet wrote: »
    i'm on the north east coast .. should be a good tester for the new shed I put in the garden during the summer

    What colour is it ? I'll keep an eye out for it in Dublin for you:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Any chance of airport disruptions tomorrow or Wednesday? Flying Thursday from Dublin?

    Nope.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 240 ✭✭ fraxinus1


    It's a Irish February typical wind event. Seriously we are turning into the USA... a bit of bad weather and there are tv reporters hyping everyone up with live reports showing a few puddles or a blown down 3 year old 'tree'.


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