Storm Doris - Wednesday PM/Thursday AM

ninebeanrows

Strong wind-storm looks set to track east across the country late Wednesday bringing potentially disruptive winds.

Looks particularly severe due to rapid intensification of low pressure with pressure projected to drop over 30hPa as it tracks east over Ireland undergoing rapid cyclogenesis.

Expect widespread gusts to 90/100kph

Exposed regions gusts to 120kph.

Darwin

Yes, winds look fairly strong with this event on Thursday. Interesting that GFS 12z doesn't develop this system at all (isobars form a U shape on the chart)..very strange given we are only 60 hours out.

Meteorite58

Darwin wrote: »

Yes, winds look fairly strong with this event on Thursday. Interesting that GFS 12z doesn't develop this system at all (isobars form a U shape on the chart)..very strange given we are only 60 hours out.

Was wondering that myself, the WRF not making much of it either, the ARPEGE is showing stronger winds over a longer time.

Met Eireann have mentioned it also: Wednesday: Bright spells are likely across the north and east for a time on Wednesday but cloud is expected to thicken from the west as the day progresses with outbreaks of rain extending eastwards from the Atlantic in association with a rapidly deepening low pressure system. Afternoon temperatures will range from 8 to 12 degrees in strengthening southwesterly winds. The rapidly deepening low pressure system will push eastwards across the country on Wednesday night bringing the risk of gales and some heavy rain. Lowest temperatures of 3 to 6 degrees.

ninebeanrows

I suppose the lack of support from the GFS would explain the lack of media interest.

--- looks like 18z run is beginning to catch up

Meteorite58

Yes, showing lower pressure and a tighter gradient .In the latest run the pressure drops about 10mbs as it crosses the UK in about 6hrs. Interesting to see if and how much the track and strength will change over the next couple of days.

Edit:The GFS is showing 12mbs of a difference less then the last run for 10.00 and has been tending to pull the center closer to Ireland as it begins to deepen.

weisses

Lovely ... A windstorm not effecting Kerry to much, nice to get the popcorn out and look to the east for a change

We are very lucky with the lack of storms so far this season

Meteorite58

The latest 18z runs by the WRF and ARPEGE looking stronger especially by the latter . Looking stronger too along the Atlantic Seaboard late Weds early Thurs morning ( will still get a slap of it here in Kerry weisses:) )

Graces7

met.ie have a yellow gale warning for later today, then Wednesday night for a storm force.

secman

Presumably this will be a named event ? Can't remember what letter we are on

Darwin

After a quick rummage through my archives...next letter is 'D', so that would be Doris (pity it couldn't be another Darwin :pac: )

fraxinus1

Listened to the 7.55am forecast on Radio 1 and all I heard being mentioned was near gale force winds. Why would this be considered a sever event?

Storm 10

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Listened to the 7.55am forecast on Radio 1 and all I heard being mentioned was near gale force winds. Why would this be considered a sever event?

I listened as well and she said we are looking at possible distribution on Wednesday/Thursday due to strong winds and to keep listening as they will probably be issuing wind warnings later today.

ninebeanrows

The U.K. MetO have named Storm Doris...

Irish MetO have issued a weather advisory

JCX BXC

Graces7 wrote: »

met.ie have a yellow gale warning for later today, then Wednesday night for a storm force.

They issue a gale warning for every little gust of wind that comes along, it's not a land warning it's a marine warning, it's of no relevance to us at all unless you live in the middle of the Atlantic.

Iancar29

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Listened to the 7.55am forecast on Radio 1 and all I heard being mentioned was near gale force winds. Why would this be considered a sever event?

JCX BXC wrote: »

They issue a gale warning for every little gust of wind that comes along, it's not a land warning it's a marine warning, it's of no relevance to us at all unless you live in the middle of the Atlantic.

STATUS YELLOW

Weather Advisory for Ireland
A rapidly deepening wave depression will track eastwards over northern parts of Ireland later Wednesday night and early on Thursday. It will bring a period of severe winds and heavy rain, with snow on northern hills. Strong to gale force southwest winds will develop overnight and become gale force northwesterly by Thursday morning with severe gusts, especially in northern and eastern areas.

More detailed updates will follow

Issued:Tuesday 21 February 2017 10:00
Valid:Thursday 23 February 2017 00:01 to Thursday 23 February 2017 11:00

JCX BXC

Not the warning I was talking about, also note that was issued at 10am and the post I quoted was at 6am which was referring to the Marine gale warning.

Iancar29

This will come down to a nowcast situation, with the rapid cyclogenesis expected, we will need to watch out for the possibility of a sting jet on it's southern flank (see sample below). Atm it looks like its main period of rapid intensification will be just as its starts moving over Ireland so Nothern England, S. Scotland could see the worst of it.




Highlands of Scotland could see nearly a foot of snow in places...

Marginal case though for snow over here, only on the highest peaks id imagine for a few cms IMO.

Sting Jet 3rd Jan, 2012 ( Note the "scorpion tale" )

Graces7

JCX BXC wrote: »

They issue a gale warning for every little gust of wind that comes along, it's not a land warning it's a marine warning, it's of no relevance to us at all unless you live in the middle of the Atlantic.

As I am coastal it does apply :rolleyes:

JCX BXC

Graces7 wrote: »

As I am coastal it does apply :rolleyes:

I am also coastal, and most of these unaccompanied marine warnings are nothing more than a breezy day.

Oscar Bravo

1336 met eireann update

Wednesday night: Heavy rain developing countrywide, as southwesterly winds increase strong to gale overnight, with strong gale to storm force gusts developing along western, southern and eastern coasts. Rain turning to squally showers, some thundery with a risk of hail, sleet and hill snow, especially in northern areas, as winds veer strong to gale force northwesterly. Lows of 3 to 6 degrees generally, but possibly 1 or 2 degrees by dawn in Ulster.

Graces7

JCX BXC wrote: »

I am also coastal, and most of these unaccompanied marine warnings are nothing more than a breezy day.

Bless you!

loveisdivine

Could do without this. Live on a hill just outside Dundalk and the strong winds we had for a couple of days last week broke 3 of our fence panels and a few other items.

Cantona's Collars

UKMO image:



This focuses on the UK but we'll get it first:

Oscar Bravo

Update from Met Eireann on "Doris"

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Munster, Connacht and Leinster.
Some severe winds expected later Wednesday night and on Thursday morning, in association with storm Doris.
Southwest winds of mean speeds 50 to 65km/h will develop giving gusts of 90 to 110km/h. Winds will veer northwesterly later in the night. Winds will be strongest in coastal counties.

Issued:Tuesday 21 February 2017 14:00
Valid:Thursday 23 February 2017 00:01 to Thursday 23 February 2017 11:00

whippet

i'm on the north east coast .. should be a good tester for the new shed I put in the garden during the summer

squarecircles

any chance of this turning into a 'real' storm ?, orange warning,sting jets,squall lines etc.

110kmph is childs play in Mayo.

none the less, after such a quiet winter,wind wise,im sure it will come as a shock.

Armchair Andy

Any chance of airport disruptions tomorrow or Wednesday? Flying Thursday from Dublin?

spookwoman

Looking at sea swell reports not going to be much waves

secman

whippet wrote: »

i'm on the north east coast .. should be a good tester for the new shed I put in the garden during the summer

What colour is it ? I'll keep an eye out for it in Dublin for you:)

JCX BXC

Armchair Andy wrote: »

Any chance of airport disruptions tomorrow or Wednesday? Flying Thursday from Dublin?

Nope.

fraxinus1

It's a Irish February typical wind event. Seriously we are turning into the USA... a bit of bad weather and there are tv reporters hyping everyone up with live reports showing a few puddles or a blown down 3 year old 'tree'.

Clonmel1000

fraxinus1 wrote: »

It's a Irish February typical wind event. Seriously we are turning into the USA... a bit of bad weather and there are tv reporters hyping everyone up with live reports showing a few puddles or a blown down 3 year old 'tree'.

You wouldn't want to read some of the snow "event" threads here if you think that's bad but you're point is well made.

Oscar Bravo

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

You wouldn't want to read some of the snow "event" threads here if you think that's bad but you're point is well made.

Haha that's for sure

Meteorite58

The ARPEGE has brought the winds down further S with the SW getting the winds first and then the E coast getting the strongest winds somewhere between 06.00-10.00 , thereafter the storm becomes it's strongest as it moves across the UK.

The WRF not showing anything as strong for Ireland at this stage.

The GFS similar to the ARPEGE

Gaoth Laidir

John Eagleton (it definitely was him this evening) made no mention of disruption or wind warnings on the 17.55 radio broadcast. Just said windy overnight Wednesday.

Doctor Shivering

fraxinus1 wrote: »

It's a Irish February typical wind event. Seriously we are turning into the USA... a bit of bad weather and there are tv reporters hyping everyone up with live reports showing a few puddles or a blown down 3 year old 'tree'.

Well tbh,120-130kmph winds in Wicklow ala that arpege posted wouldn't be that common...

sword1

loveisdivine wrote: »

Could do without this. Live on a hill just outside Dundalk and the strong winds we had for a couple of days last week broke 3 of our fence panels and a few other items.

To be honest if it did damage last week then the fence is not up to the job and it might be safer knock it now rather than wait for the pieces of it to do other damage if we actually get a storm this winter. The wind was mainly easterly last so maybe your fence will be sheltered from this breeze

Iancar29

fraxinus1 wrote: »

It's a Irish February typical wind event. Seriously we are turning into the USA... a bit of bad weather and there are tv reporters hyping everyone up with live reports showing a few puddles or a blown down 3 year old 'tree'.

Theres a criteria for dangerous weather as set by Europe. Wether you think its just a soft day for your location or not, there is still potential for disruption and, to an extent a risk to life. So by all means we have the reason to discuss it here in a scientific manner and not, as per some media outlets, hype it up.

kittyn

Iancar29 wrote: »

Theres a criteria for dangerous weather as set by Europe. Wether you think its just a soft day for your location or not, there is still potential for disruption and, to an extent a risk to life. So by all means we have the reason to discuss it here in a scientific manner and not, as per some media outlets, hype it up.

I think your either damned if you do and damned if you don't when it comes to putting up warnings on here and Met Eireann ........

My definition of a disruptive wind event, is when I can't light my cigarette with my Zippo.

Meteorite58

Well the APERGE 18z is rolling out just now and is coming up far stronger then the previous run, the GFS is coming up weaker . The central UK looks like it is going to get hammered.

What do people think, the French model got a better handle on it ? Orange warning some Eastern counties perhaps for a brief time Thurs morning.

Meteorite58

Just adding this in here to show how Storm Doris is just beginning to strengthen when it passes over us , the chart below is when it slams into the Netherlands . High tide there about 12.00 , next Spring tide 5 days off.

Mean wind speed in Kt's.

ninebeanrows

Looks like Greater Dublin area is in for a decent whallop for tomorrow mornings rush hour. Westerly winds gusting 100-110km/HR from approx 4am-7am potentially reaching 120km/HR in places 7-9am before gradually easing.

Graces7

Seriously wondering if I have done a Rip Van Winkle and this is Wednesday as it is ferocious up here. Beginning to think wind is the default weather here. West Galway 400ft asl ish.

ninebeanrows

Tomorrow's system looks relatively similar to the storm of 2 January 1976. Now it currently isn't progged to be quite as severe but the synoptic chart looks quite similar, the 1976 storm was somewhat more developed just off our west shore but only by around 5hPa and we are yet to see Doris begin its rapid development phase.

Here is the reanalyses of the 1976 storm

ninebeanrows

Weathercheck wrote: »

Tomorrow's system looks relatively similar to the storm of 2 January 1976. Now it currently isn't progged to be quite as severe but the synoptic chart looks quite similar, the 1976 storm was somewhat more developed just off our west shore but only by around 5hPa and we are yet to see Doris begin its rapid development phase.

Here is the reanalyses of the 1976 storm

I would not be surprised to see an Orange warning issued today as it looks like somewhere will record at least a 60 knot gust as Doris races east.

Looks dangerous for parts of north/central England... Potential 70/75 knot gusts, even inland

fixXxer

spookwoman wrote: »

Looking at sea swell reports not going to be much waves

Where did you see this? Was thinking of hanging around the Dun Laoghaire coast to look out for photo ops.

DOCARCH

fixxxer wrote: »

Where did you see this? Was thinking of hanging around the Dun Laoghaire coast to look out for photo ops.

With wind off the land/from the west, there would not be much to see in DunLaoghaire.

Doctor Shivering

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looks like Greater Dublin area is in for a decent whallop for tomorrow mornings rush hour. Westerly winds gusting 100-110km/HR from approx 4am-7am potentially reaching 120km/HR in places 7-9am before gradually easing.

That will definitely impact early departures at Dublin Airport and quite possibly the early USA arrivals
Dublin Airport is very exposed to westerlies

ninebeanrows

Doctor Shivering wrote: »

That will definitely impact early departures at Dublin Airport and quite possibly the early USA arrivals
Dublin Airport is very exposed to westerlies

Yea it is exposed but that direction is right down the throat of the runway so unsure of cross-wind? Might affect ground ops nonetheless.

pedigree 6

Will the wind direction dampen down the strength and possible damage done from this system i.e for the east coast when the wind is coming from the land dumbing down the speed as opposed to coming from the open water of the sea with no obstacles?

One to watch but it be could be much worse if there was a different wind direction.



(I think I've resorted to talking to myself and answering my own questions. ):)