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10-02-2014, 16:19   #1
 
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The Great Storm of Wednesday 12/02/2014

Severe storm on the WRF, gusts off the scale on the south coast and into southeast Britain, likely 150kph upwards in places


Last edited by pistolpetes11; 13-02-2014 at 00:09.
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10-02-2014, 16:24   #2
maquiladora
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Severe storm on the WRF, gusts off the scale on the south coast and into southeast Britain, likely 150kph upwards in places

That's using 06Z GFS data. The 12Z run should show the strongest winds a bit further north. Will be rolling out shortly.
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10-02-2014, 16:27   #3
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They give out here about people getting carried away by changes on one run and not rely on it but Met Eireann seem to do the same in their extended forecast every morning. Surely a forecast like now i.e uncertainty and stay tuned would be much better forecasting.
Also I just want to say that I believe Met Eireann do a great job overall and do not issue warning especially in more recent times unless warranted.
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10-02-2014, 16:39   #4
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12Z GEM has a HIRLAM-like track, a bit further north than the GFS.

12Z ECM will be the big one though.

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10-02-2014, 16:44   #5
Oneiric 3
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DMI 12z showing pretty much the same narrow but potent swath of winds running up through the southern half of the country as Maq's chart in above post.
Spoiler:
Now let's hope for further upgrades in later runs
:)
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10-02-2014, 16:45   #6
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Looking violent for Cork
Major headache for Met Eireann when to issue an alert
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10-02-2014, 16:46   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by munsterlegend View Post
They give out here about people getting carried away by changes on one run and not rely on it but Met Eireann seem to do the same in their extended forecast every morning. Surely a forecast like now i.e uncertainty and stay tuned would be much better forecasting.
Evelyn siad that exact thing...
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10-02-2014, 16:50   #8
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Yea here is the DMI Hirlam.



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10-02-2014, 16:55   #9
munsterlegend
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Evelyn siad that exact thing...
I was referring to their written forecast on their website which I read first thing every morning together with MT's forecast!
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10-02-2014, 16:59   #10
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The HIRLAM track is not far off the Dec 1997 track. The white line shows where the strongest winds were in relation to the center, possibly in part due to a sting jet type feature. A difference between 1997 and this storm is that it in 97 the low was still deepening as it crossed the country whereas here it looks like it will peak close to or over the southwest.

Still, even if there are no mesoscale features enhancing the winds, it could still be quite potent, and not just limited to coastal areas.

That's all assuming the HIRLAM/ECM solution is the correct one. This is still 2 days away, things change!

1997 :
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10-02-2014, 17:01   #11
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Looking violent for Cork
Major headache for Met Eireann when to issue an alert
so much change already today that they will probably await for overnight runs or put out a yellow warning later this evening for Wednesday and upgrade accordingly (if necessary).
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10-02-2014, 17:08   #12
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GFS Ensembles have made a significant jog north with the track from the 6z.

Hirlam type track now more preferred.

A few 97' like systems

---------- big 48hr chart to come from the ECMWF tonight!



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10-02-2014, 17:18   #13
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It is interesting that ECM showed a storm potential for this week a few days ago, only to drop it over the last few days, then suddenly to bring it back. Must have picked up on something days ago. IF this low proves to be a vicous as forecast, then the ECMWF model has to be the winner regarding the pinning down of this particular feature.
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10-02-2014, 17:27   #14
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could this bring more flooding to cork city?
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10-02-2014, 17:28   #15
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Holy moly, where did this potential storm come from. Evelyn said no more storms this week and suddenly met e are talking about structural damage. Although I think she was premature making such a sweeping statement.
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