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The Great Storm of Wednesday 12/02/2014

  • 10-02-2014 4:19pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Severe storm on the WRF, gusts off the scale on the south coast and into southeast Britain, likely 150kph upwards in places

    nmmuk-11-59-0_fdm8.png


«13456785

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Harps wrote: »
    Severe storm on the WRF, gusts off the scale on the south coast and into southeast Britain, likely 150kph upwards in places

    nmmuk-11-59-0_fdm8.png

    That's using 06Z GFS data. The 12Z run should show the strongest winds a bit further north. Will be rolling out shortly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    They give out here about people getting carried away by changes on one run and not rely on it but Met Eireann seem to do the same in their extended forecast every morning. Surely a forecast like now i.e uncertainty and stay tuned would be much better forecasting.

    Also I just want to say that I believe Met Eireann do a great job overall and do not issue warning especially in more recent times unless warranted.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z GEM has a HIRLAM-like track, a bit further north than the GFS.

    12Z ECM will be the big one though.

    gem-0-48.png?12


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    DMI 12z showing pretty much the same narrow but potent swath of winds running up through the southern half of the country as Maq's chart in above post.
    Now let's hope for further upgrades in later runs
    :)

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Looking violent for Cork
    Major headache for Met Eireann when to issue an alert


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    They give out here about people getting carried away by changes on one run and not rely on it but Met Eireann seem to do the same in their extended forecast every morning. Surely a forecast like now i.e uncertainty and stay tuned would be much better forecasting.

    Evelyn siad that exact thing...


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Yea here is the DMI Hirlam.

    52f8f515ba211.gif

    52f8f5179ce7d.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Evelyn siad that exact thing...

    I was referring to their written forecast on their website which I read first thing every morning together with MT's forecast!


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    The HIRLAM track is not far off the Dec 1997 track. The white line shows where the strongest winds were in relation to the center, possibly in part due to a sting jet type feature. A difference between 1997 and this storm is that it in 97 the low was still deepening as it crossed the country whereas here it looks like it will peak close to or over the southwest.

    Still, even if there are no mesoscale features enhancing the winds, it could still be quite potent, and not just limited to coastal areas.

    That's all assuming the HIRLAM/ECM solution is the correct one. This is still 2 days away, things change!

    1997 :
    IhQPF5z.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Looking violent for Cork
    Major headache for Met Eireann when to issue an alert

    so much change already today that they will probably await for overnight runs or put out a yellow warning later this evening for Wednesday and upgrade accordingly (if necessary).


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    GFS Ensembles have made a significant jog north with the track from the 6z.

    Hirlam type track now more preferred.

    A few 97' like systems

    big 48hr chart to come from the ECMWF tonight!

    gens-5-1-54.png?12

    gens-11-1-60.png?12


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    It is interesting that ECM showed a storm potential for this week a few days ago, only to drop it over the last few days, then suddenly to bring it back. Must have picked up on something days ago. IF this low proves to be a vicous as forecast, then the ECMWF model has to be the winner regarding the pinning down of this particular feature.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,315 ✭✭✭sunbabe08


    could this bring more flooding to cork city?:(


  • Registered Users Posts: 58 ✭✭snowstorm2013


    Holy moly, where did this potential storm come from. Evelyn said no more storms this week and suddenly met e are talking about structural damage. Although I think she was premature making such a sweeping statement.


  • Registered Users Posts: 921 ✭✭✭MiNdGaM3


    A very clear northward shift on the NMM out to t42

    1biijUc.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    UK fax 12z appears to have track very slightly more south than hi res models on landfall, but pretty much the same tight gradient on S and SW flank.

    293186.PNG

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 95 ✭✭Aimsir


    what day is this storm for. have some tech problems on map at mo


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,505 ✭✭✭✭Xenji


    Aimsir wrote: »
    what day is this storm for. have some tech problems on map at mo

    Wednesday/Thursday


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    UK fax 12z appears to have track very slightly more south than hi res models on landfall, but pretty much the same tight gradient on S and SW flank.

    293186.PNG

    It looks like they left the fax unchanged from the 12Z UKMO global model.

    U48-21UK.GIF


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    ECMWF resolutely sticking to its guns..

    Looking severe or even dangerous.

    ECM1-48.GIF?10-0


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Note to mods: Time for the thread to be updated with warning etc!


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Batten down the hatches...

    ECU1-48.GIF?10-0


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z ECM has 850mb winds >100 knots just off the southwest coast at 48 hours.

    It's almost identical to yesterday's 12Z run.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    EURO4 not in agreement with ECM/HIRLAM. A complex/messy looking center with the strongest winds further south.

    14021212_1012.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,876 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Well a red alert going by tonights models.
    However time for it to downgrade so pbly wise for both Met Eireann and ourselves to see the morning runs first.
    Its all or nothing here for the South


  • Registered Users Posts: 227 ✭✭diceyd


    sorry if already mentioned,sky news has snow over us tomorrow,is this likely?


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,009 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    diceyd wrote: »
    sorry if already mentioned,sky news has snow over us tomorrow,is this likely?

    Hey dicey

    Check the updates in the Winter Thread :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,017 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    A good forecast on rte there from met eireann "more trouble on the way" . Violent storm force 11 in the south. Batten down the hatches!


  • Registered Users Posts: 95 ✭✭Aimsir


    M.T. what's your take on the storm?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Evelyn Cusack just talking about it on the weather forecast - not certain as to its track (please go north!)


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