The Great Storm of Wednesday 12/02/2014

maquiladora

downwiththatsor wrote: »

Another gfs based gust speed with numbers from here-
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

The numbers are sustained winds, the colours are gusts.

JanuarySnowstor

Hard to know wc. History of watching weather models tells us they are not to be trusted n quite often over estimate events.
I would think we ( us and met eireann) should hold off on major warnings until after the 12s tomorrow afternoon and if they still show then get major warnings out tomorrow night and use the news media etc.

downwiththatsor

Thanks, maq, worse than i thought then.

Weathercheck any thoughts on the 12z Ecmwf control run at +48hrs?

relaxed

High tide Fenit pier for example is 3.20pm Wednesday, what time is peak storm force winds expected along the west coast?

Stella Virgo

NegativeCreep wrote: »

Being really selfish here but I hope this happens. Dublin hasn't had any real exciting weather at all Everywhere else is hogging it. cheek.

ya wont be so chirpy, when ya have to re roof the house....;)

maquiladora

downwiththatsor wrote: »

Thanks, maq, worse than i thought then.

Yes but remember it's just one run and it has shifted track from it's last run. Just because this run is showing the strongest winds impacting us doesn't mean that the next run can't drop further south again, or show a less intense low on a similar track. Same for the ECM etc.
This thing is still thousands of miles away on the other side of the Atlantic ocean and it only really gets going a few hours before reaching our shores so there can still be a lot of changes between now and Wednesday morning and it wouldn't take a very big change to make a very big difference. We have seen track changes and downgrades in intensity at under 24 hours several times.

Just something to keep in mind, while this looks more likely now, it's still far from certain.

Villain

I really hope this downgrades, I love extreme weather but this is just dangerous!

I'm supposed to be flying out if Knock Thursday morning to the UK.

What do you think my chances are ?

JanuarySnowstor

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm supposed to be flying out if Knock Thursday morning to the UK.

What do you think my chances are ?

The storm is Wednesday

Steopo

relaxed wrote: »

High tide Fenit pier for example is 3.20pm Wednesday, what time is peak storm force winds expected along the west coast?

Based on current GFS track would probably be worst on South/Southwest around 1pm Wed & West/East around 4pm/5pm with still very strong winds at 7pm (less so in Southwest at that stage)

Although the high tide is that time bear in mind that we are not at astronomical high tides (i.e. the high spring tides we had for the last two coastal events where the gravitational pull of the moon & earth create higher tides) so this reduces the risk of coastal impacts. Also because this is rapidly developing and does not have as long a track as last few storms across the atlantic the storm surge won't be as significant

Nevertheless don't underestimate this, if it comes off it's a major wind storm across a much larger part of the country than any of the recent storms

fr wishy washy

Villain wrote: »

I really hope this downgrades, I love extreme weather but this is just dangerous!

Looks pure evil:eek:

howlinwolf

Villain wrote: »

I really hope this downgrades, I love extreme weather but this is just dangerous!

agreed, i was enjoying the run of storms over the last month or so but this is probably a step too far especially considering that were right in the firing line here in the southeast ( on the latest models anyway). As maq has stated this is on the other side of the atlantic and not even developed at the moment so the exact track is far from certain but i fear for anyone who ends up in its path, both ourselves and southern england have been hammered already and this would surely cause damage wherever it hit......all eyes will be on the models for the next 24hrs:eek:

JanuarySnowstor

With the 18z hirlam in support am starting to think time has run out for possible downgrades.
Its very likely now that a major will hit our shores but tomorrow will hold the key.

What Met Eireann should do is highlight both the dangers and the uncertainty.
Sometimes the pros try to get it too correct when the general public will be very understanding of just being honest

maquiladora

A sting in the tail?

BorneTobyWilde

Quite wondy here

_Whimsical_

A very windy night in Galway tonight. Not damaging type windy but certainly very gusty.

relaxed

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Quite wondy here

Keep waving it and we might get some snow:D

omicron

Villain wrote: »

, I mean Met Eireann have issued an Orange Warning which is a serious threat yet we only see a level 1 here for a system which is over 48 hours away.

Just to go back to this point briefly, Met Eireann haven't issued any warning at all. The currently valid orange warning is a snow/ice warning for Donegal, valid for tonight and tomorrow. The only wind warning in operation in a yellow warning for gusts up to 100km/hr on south and west coasts valid for tonight.

Villain

omicron wrote: »

Just to go back to this point briefly, Met Eireann haven't issued any warning at all. The currently valid orange warning is a snow/ice warning for Donegal, valid for tonight and tomorrow. The only wind warning in operation in a yellow warning for gusts up to 100km/hr on south and west coasts valid for tonight.

I meant that while an Orange warning is in place by Met Eireann there is no warning here for it but there is already a level 1 warning here for an event 48 hrs away, I don't want to harp on as mods have made it clear they don't want me overstating my opinion on it

M.T. Cranium

The GEM also updates at 18z with its 48h RGEM, the 36h panel pretty much confirms what the GFS 18z is saying, the 48h panel does not extend as far east as Ireland but anyway, the general idea is to reinforce the 18z GFS from a model that has been spot on with just about every storm at short range this past winter. FYI the 06z Wed position is 51.8N 16.2W and 962 mbs on the RGEM.

This has already drifted north on most models now by 2 deg in the past two major runs, so what's the potential for further northward shifting and what would that mean to the forecast? I don't see much potential for further shifting, and any northward adjustment would likely come with a lower central pressure which might cancel out the differences to wind speed forecasts. There is probably something like a 20% chance of a southward adjustment before event time but not enough to avoid very strong winds in some parts of Ireland.

Therefore I think the thread is on track, and if things still look this way after the 00z runs we should probably go to a level 2 then upgrade to level 3 if 12z Tuesday confirms.

maquiladora

Another look at the 18Z HIRLAM. The darkest area here running along the southwest coast indicates Force 12 winds.

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

Another look at the 18Z HIRLAM. The darkest area here running along the southwest coast indicates Force 12 winds.

Might ring up Sherkin island and see do they have a bed for the night? lol

delw

Villain wrote: »

I really hope this downgrades, I love extreme weather but this is just dangerous!

Looks dangerous alright but is a thing of beauty to look at,god knows when we will see a chart like that over us

BuilderPlumber

This has got to be the longest November ever! Happy Christmas.

JanuarySnowstor

maquiladora wrote: »

Another look at the 18Z HIRLAM. The darkest area here running along the southwest coast indicates Force 12 winds.

Is that sustained or gusts?

maquiladora

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Is that sustained or gusts?

Sustained.

Cantremember

This thread is the best of boards. Knowledgable people and a look at what's out there!

red_bairn

Iancar29 wrote: »

Might ring up Sherkin island and see do they have a bed for the night? lol

I'll join you and keep you safe. ("/)

Rebelbrowser

maquiladora wrote: »

Sustained.

Forgive my ignorance but if you have sustained force 12 winds - well isn't there a word for that? Begins with "H"?

Mr Cumulonimbus

18Z WRF at +45 hrs. Does it appear as aggressive as the corresponding GFS?