The Great Storm of Wednesday 12/02/2014

Villain

Some subtle changes on GFS 06z

maquiladora

06Z GFS keeps the stronger winds a bit further south. Still very strong winds along southern coastal areas, less severe inland compared to the 0Z.

leahyl

maquiladora wrote: »

06Z GFS keeps the stronger winds a bit further south. Still very strong winds along southern coastal areas, less severe inland compared to the 0Z.

What are we looking at in terms of sustained winds and/or gusts Maq?

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

What are we looking at in terms of sustained winds and/or gusts Maq?

Around 130-140 km/h gusts on the south coast.

ninebeanrows

Latest GFS has gone a bit further south placing sig winds in far south

ninebeanrows

However as Maq alludes to, 6z hirlam keeps a severe storm with high winds well inland.

Which model would I follow? Hirlam.

munsterlegend

Weathercheck wrote: »

However as Maq alludes to, 6z hirlam keeps a severe storm with high winds well inland.

Which model would I follow? Hirlam.

Small changes can make a huge difference to this small island! Will be interesting this afternoon models!

The12thMan

How often do the models update?

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

Small changes can make a huge difference to this small island! Will be interesting this afternoon models!

Thats true, it only takes a very small change in the track or even the structure of the low to change where the strongest winds will be placed.

It's a bit like trying to hit the bullseye on a moving dartboard.

adox

Am I right in thinking this will be relatively short lived? Maybe 5 or 6 hours?

caustic 1

Know nothing of the charts sorry, Donegal looking to escape or am I wrong?

pad199207

Shes called Tini

luimneachboy

New to this but have been following with weeks. Can someone advise what wind expected at present in west limerick.... Is it the worst so far

maquiladora

06Z GFS data viewed through the WRF model still looks pretty strong on the UCD website. Still looking at a period of strong gales inland, storm force in places inland from the coast and storm force to violent storm force in coastal areas.

All subject to change again in a few hours of course...

Steopo

maquiladora wrote: »

Thats true, it only takes a very small change in the track or even the structure of the low to change where the strongest winds will be placed.

It's a bit like trying to hit the bullseye on a moving dartboard.

With cross wind gusts of 100knts blowing the darts

goat2

right now it is windy with hailstone coming down, feels raw outside,

pauldry

Id say 80knots Sherk
75 Val
60 to 70 rest of southern Munster

65 Dublin
66 Cork

Cause cork likes to be better

sunbabe08

lmao!!! well that's because we are better :D although this storm is scary

Villain

Highres 06z

red_bairn

goat2 wrote: »

right now it is windy with hailstone coming down, feels raw outside,

Where are ye located, goat2?

goat2

red_bairn wrote: »

Where are ye located, goat2?

west kerry

Mr Cumulonimbus

06Z Euro4.

maquiladora

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

06Z Euro4.

Yes, EURO4 has shifted north a bit, now showing sustained 70-75 mph winds along the southwest coast.



Moving quickly, 3 hours later the strongest winds just off the Wexford coast, again 70-75 mph. Looks less severe inland compared to other models but it's hard to tell with such a fast moving system at 3 hour intervals.



The Met Office have updated their warning.

There remains some uncertainty regarding the exact track of the vigorous depression and hence the areas more likely to be affected by the worst of the winds. However, current ideas suggest that parts of western England, Wales and northern England will bear the brunt with gusts of 60-70 mph widely, perhaps with gusts of 80-90 mph in exposed parts of north and west Wales and northwest England.

ninebeanrows

EURO4 beginning to come around. Certainly has been playing catch up, should have better representation by 12z, but again this feature has hardly recognizable yet!

To think in 24 hours it could be brining some record high winds!

KingdomRushed

When does the next HIRLAM come out again?

maquiladora

KingdomRushed wrote: »

When does the next HIRLAM come out again?

3:30

Oscar Bravo

Orange wind alert issued by met eireann for counties Galway limerick cork Waterford wexford Clare and Kerry for tomorrow. Valid from 0900 tomorrow.

ninebeanrows

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Orange wind alert issued by met eireann for counties Galway limerick cork Waterford Clare and Kerry for tomorrow.

Yea i don't get that to be honest. Including Galway yet excluding a number of places that would get hit if the track brought Galway under threat!!

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I hope that isn't the only warning they issue or else could be some surprised and annoyed people tomorrow night.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Yea i don't get that to be honest. Including Galway yet excluding a number of places that would get hit if the track brought Galway under threat!!

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I hope that isn't the only warning they issue or else could be some surprised and annoyed people tomorrow night.

Probably because they are the most likely counties to be impacted, too early to be refining the warning when there is still uncertainty about the track and intensity.

There will be more detailed warnings by this tonight when we should have better model agreement.

I think most people take more notice of the TV forecast than the specifics of the warnings on the website anyway...

Macy0161

maquiladora wrote: »

I think most people take more notice of the TV forecast than the specifics of the warnings on the website anyway...

Without getting into the pro's and con's of the warning, the radio station news and online sources (such as The Journal), do tend to run with any warnings issued.