The Great Storm of Wednesday 12/02/2014

maquiladora

sunbabe08

:eek: just checked as well, high tide is around 4 on Wednesday.:(

maquiladora

sunbabe08 wrote: »

:eek: just checked as well, high tide is around 4 on Wednesday.:(

I don't think coastal flooding will be a concern with this. At least not as much as previous storms anyway.

sunbabe08

maquiladora wrote: »

I don't think coastal flooding will be a concern with this. At least not as much as previous storms anyway.

well that's one good thing.

leahyl

:-O I've missed a lot this afternoon it seems!!! Is it bad to be excited about this?! Would there be rain involved also if this comes off?

cyclops999

Latest from MT:

UPDATE _ Monday 10 February 2014 _ 7 p.m.
________________________________________

ALERT for 3-5 cm of snow accumulating on some higher terrain above 150m above sea level on Tuesday, also more widespread hail or sleet showers, all of which will produce locally poor driving conditions but most notably in Connacht and Ulster, also higher parts of Kerry and west Limerick.

ADVANCE ALERT for potential damaging south-southwest veering to westerly wind gusts to 140 km/hr in exposed parts of the south and east, possibly as far north as a Galway to east Ulster line, with models now showing an intensifying storm tracking northeast across Ireland on Wednesday afternoon. The details on this may continue to change, watch for updates.

maquiladora

This is from the 0Z ECM, but 12Z seems to be pretty similar. Take it with a grain of salt as other models aren't showing something this severe. But this is what Evelyn was worried about on the forecast.

These are 10m gusts in knots. This would be stronger than any previous storms this winter or probably any winter since 1997 for southern parts.



Meanwhile, the UK Met Office don't seem to be buying this track at all. Their own models suggest a more southerly track with the strongest winds heading for Wales/Southwest England. Even their "alternative track" is further south again.

leahyl

This is all very tense stuff! Maq, at this stage is it likely that the South will get some fairly strong winds?

red_bairn

Well if Clare gets hit badly, they might want to rethink about the report they sent to the government.

goat2

i hope this does not come to pass this forecast that evelyn gave, MT is giving forecast for wind also, he is always spot on, wind storm after storm, must be loosening tiles with each storm, hopefully we will come out of it as we have the past storms,
just started light rain at moment,

what will friday morning early bring, i have a long journey to travel is there anything showing for that far on yet,

Villain

Very complex situation with subtle differences within +50 and while the difference are subtle the impact difference on land is huge.

Also anyone from Donegal needs to note that there is an Orange warning in affect for Donegal for next 24 hrs. I get why this thread is needed for this event but if this warning was for Dublin I think the thread would either include it or another thread with a Level 2 would be created.

Mr Cumulonimbus

maquiladora wrote: »

Meanwhile, the UK Met Office don't seem to be buying this track at all. Their own models suggest a more southerly track with the strongest winds heading for Wales/Southwest England. Even their "alternative track" is further south again.

Yes. 12Z Euro4 at +48hrs has a belt of strong winds to the south of Ireland.

munsterlegend

goat2 wrote: »

i hope this does not come to pass this forecast that evelyn gave, MT is giving forecast for wind also, he is always spot on, wind storm after storm, must be loosening tiles with each storm, hopefully we will come out of it as we have the past storms,
just started light rain at moment,

what will friday morning early bring, i have a long journey to travel is there anything showing for that far on yet,

Nothing certain about this storm yet. So much change in track already today but won't be tomorrow before any certainty. Interesting couple of days of weather though!

goat2

it is brilliant to be able to look up weather ahead here, i am thankful for this
.
i have a query,
i have one of those old weather clocks, i bought at car boot sale about 20 yrs ago and it is so accurate still, it hangs inside door in hall,
but now that we have these deadly storms, i have noticed, that the needle has hit the bottom, but it is when the needle is rising i see the more severe wind,
is it my clock or is this normal

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

This is all very tense stuff! Maq, at this stage is it likely that the South will get some fairly strong winds?

The potential is there.

Danno

goat2 wrote: »

is it my clock or is this normal

Usually the strongest winds occur just after pressure has hit the lowest and is starting to rise again, so yes it is normal.

You can compare with many other websites around, such as the one in my sig.

maquiladora

goat2 wrote: »

it is brilliant to be able to look up weather ahead here, i am thankful for this
.
i have a query,
i have one of those old weather clocks, i bought at car boot sale about 20 yrs ago and it is so accurate still, it hangs inside door in hall,
but now that we have these deadly storms, i have noticed, that the needle has hit the bottom, but it is when the needle is rising i see the more severe wind,
is it my clock or is this normal

This might help.

http://www.sciencecompany.com/-w135.aspx

Speak Now

Fingers crossed for the UKMO solution.

Harps

Hard to believe that we don't even know what country this storm is going to hit yet and it's less than 48 hours away. A more southerly track has been the more frequent solution though the ECMWF and Hirlam are usually the most accurate models for this part of the world so it's anyone's guess at the moment, definitely going to be glued to the models tomorrow.

je551e

Strong wind and heavy rain in Kerry now

downwiththatsor

Worried as to what damage violent storm force 11 could bring down here.

weisses

je551e wrote: »

Strong wind and heavy rain in Kerry now

True ... Heavy rain and strong gusts

aboyro

downwiththatsor wrote: »

Worried as to what damage violent storm force 11 could bring down here.

same here. i'm fed up of being "tested". i'd like to see "the bad man go-away" now. these intense wind episodes are wearing on me:(

CB19Kevo

weisses wrote: »

True ... Heavy rain and strong gusts

Nothing of note yet in South East Kerry.
The odd gust and drizzle.

snowstorm2013

Is it true this storm is going to miss us altogether? Heres hoping

microsim

Mind yerselfs!

Villain

snowstorm2013 wrote: »

Is it true this storm is going to miss us altogether? Heres hoping

Not certain yet, tune into RTE1 after the news and Met Eireann will have the latest data along with their own thoughts.

Oneiric 3

Villain wrote: »

I get why this thread is needed for this event but if this warning was for Dublin I think the thread would either include it or another thread with a Level 2 would be created.

To be honest, I think there is too much emphasis on the 'warning levels' on this forum. It is supposed to be an amateur weather enthusiast chat thread, not a national warning one. Pretty sure most people reading this thread and forum have an idea of what may come regarding the severity of any given weather situation that may - or may not - evolve.

ninebeanrows

Raw ECMWF data going for sustained 108 km/h - Violent storm @ Valentia midday Wednesday.

It shows sustained 91 km/h - Storm @ Dublin City Centre

Villain

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

To be honest, I think there is too much emphasis on the 'warning levels' on this forum. It is supposed to be an amateur weather enthusiast chat thread, not a national warning one. Pretty sure most people reading this thread and forum have an idea of what may come regarding the severity of any given weather situation that may - or may not - evolve.

I would agree with you only there has been a lot of comments here in the past where people have had a go at Met Eireann and said they trust forecasts here etc.

I think the Alert Levels here should either echo Met Eireann's or not be present at all, I mean Met Eireann have issued an Orange Warning which is a serious threat yet we only see a level 1 here for a system which is over 48 hours away.