The Great Storm of Wednesday 12/02/2014

Oneiric 3

Oscar Bravo

Blustery enough here across the west at the moment with persistant rain and a gust of 51kts at Mace Head.

Jeju

So if this turns out to be as violent as the charts suggest and the previous wind events we were advised to seek shelter should the schools be advised to close early on Wednesday or just stay closed?
My little one is picked up at 1:30 I just dont like the idea of it.

Oscar Bravo

Its fast approaching five to midnight so if you have a radio/ Sky (0160) put on RTE Radio 1 for the latest in the general and sea area forecast

Oscar Bravo

WOW! Gerald Flemming on the RTE radio 1 forecast!! now things must be serious! (and he said "rumble of thunder" lol)

maquiladora

10m winds.



100 knot 850mb winds over the midlands/east.

Larbre34

Proper extra-tropical cyclone?

andrew

He could be forecasting the end of days and it would probably still sound somewhat reassuring.

Oneiric 3

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

WOW! Gerald Flemming on the RTE radio 1 forecast!! now things must be serious! (and he said "rumble of thunder" lol)

What did he say? (missed it)

Mr Cumulonimbus

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

What did he say? (missed it)

Mentioned Force 11 winds at times off the SW and S coasts at times on Wednesday.

Oscar Bravo

he said pretty much what is on the met.ie forecast . its been ages since I heard him. but on a serious note he said Violent storm force 11 is possible in the SW on wednesday. tomorrows updates will be crucial.

maquiladora

I don't have access to the charts, but seemingly the 12Z ECM is showing 10m gusts up to 90-95 knots according to Ryan Maue.

Yikes...

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

I don't have access to the charts, but seemingly the 12Z ECM is showing 10m gusts up to 90-95 knots according to Ryan Maue.

Yikes...

Who is Ryan Maue when he is at home Maq?

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

Who is Ryan Maue when he is at home Maq?

He develops the model output for WeatherBell.

Mr Cumulonimbus

WRF at +47 hrs focusing on the UK & Ireland. Doesn't look good at all. What wind speeds does the pale part inside the 130 kmh region represent?

maquiladora

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

WRF at +47 hrs focusing on the UK & Ireland. Doesn't look good at all. What wind speeds does the pale part in the middle represent?

140-150 km/h

vickers209

maquiladora wrote: »

140-150 km/h

Would that be gusts or substaned wind speeds?

M.T. Cranium

Apparently 140 km/hr ... looking back on historic storms, this one as currently depicted reminds me of Feb 26-27, 1903 which as you probably know was considered the worst windstorm since 1839 in Ireland and uprooted thousands of trees. The track was similar and maps don't show pressures as low as this one either.

However, still theorizing yet, the actual disturbance was a 1003 mb low south of Nova Scotia at 18z Monday and from ship obs I have it at 997 mbs south of the Avalon peninsula of Newfoundland now. The 1903 storm only formed about 24h before landfall on the map sequences but followed this general track.

Mr Cumulonimbus

maquiladora wrote: »

140-150 km/h

Bloody hell!!

18Z Euro4 at +45 hrs giving a different story.........

pauldry

this may indeed be the last of the major storms and maybe it will end it all in shtyle by blowing Ireland into Russia

andrew

maquiladora wrote: »

140-150 km/h

netbeatz

This is scary stuff...what are the probabilities of the current track over the S/SE holding firm? Could we see a significant downgrade?

Smidge

The chart at the top of the page says 6pm local time. Will it be with us much before that and after? What kind of gust speeds are the charts showing?

Mr Cumulonimbus

vickers209 wrote: »

Would that be gusts or substaned wind speeds?

That chart showing gusts. The mean speeds chart for the same time is indicating 80 to 90 kmh winds in parts of the central belt of the country.

maquiladora

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

Bloody hell!!

18Z Euro4 at +45 hrs giving a different story.........

Not as severe as other models, though it has shifted the core of strong winds further north than on the 12Z run. It looks like some strong winds pass over the southwest between 42-45. It's a very fast moving low so you won't always catch the best view on some of these models.

M.T. Cranium

Also, it's the upper level wind pattern that is concerning, with many of the deep lows all winter, the 500 mb flow did not distort the way it is shown to do in this approaching event. This is the ingredient that models are apparently translating as a sting jet set-up and enhanced surface winds.

maquiladora

There is a chance it may turn out something similar to Dec 24 1997. It's too early to tell yet.

Some Met Eireann reports on that event :

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Dec1997_storm.PDF
http://www.met.ie/climate/MonthlyWeather/clim-1997-Dec.pdf

Mr Cumulonimbus

maquiladora wrote: »

Not as severe as other models, though it has shifted the core of strong winds further north than on the 12Z run. It looks like some strong winds pass over the southwest between 42-45. It's a very fast moving low so you won't always catch the best view on some of these models.

Interesting to see what the Euro4 does later today. If all the models coalesce around the current GFS & WRF output, it's serious stuff, and the East (Dublin, Kildare etc) will be in the firing line too.

twistables

Do I need to border up the house and take the day off work?

bigroad

One of the other models further back in this thread shows 100kt thats 115mph.Have we ever had that wind speed before.
That sort of wind will cause big trouble.