The Great Storm of Wednesday 12/02/2014

Harps

Severe storm on the WRF, gusts off the scale on the south coast and into southeast Britain, likely 150kph upwards in places

maquiladora

Harps wrote: »

Severe storm on the WRF, gusts off the scale on the south coast and into southeast Britain, likely 150kph upwards in places

That's using 06Z GFS data. The 12Z run should show the strongest winds a bit further north. Will be rolling out shortly.

munsterlegend

munsterlegend wrote: »

They give out here about people getting carried away by changes on one run and not rely on it but Met Eireann seem to do the same in their extended forecast every morning. Surely a forecast like now i.e uncertainty and stay tuned would be much better forecasting.

Also I just want to say that I believe Met Eireann do a great job overall and do not issue warning especially in more recent times unless warranted.

maquiladora

12Z GEM has a HIRLAM-like track, a bit further north than the GFS.

12Z ECM will be the big one though.

Oneiric 3

DMI 12z showing pretty much the same narrow but potent swath of winds running up through the southern half of the country as Maq's chart in above post.

Now let's hope for further upgrades in later runs

JanuarySnowstor

Looking violent for Cork
Major headache for Met Eireann when to issue an alert

Iancar29

munsterlegend wrote: »

They give out here about people getting carried away by changes on one run and not rely on it but Met Eireann seem to do the same in their extended forecast every morning. Surely a forecast like now i.e uncertainty and stay tuned would be much better forecasting.

Evelyn siad that exact thing...

ninebeanrows

Yea here is the DMI Hirlam.

munsterlegend

Iancar29 wrote: »

Evelyn siad that exact thing...

I was referring to their written forecast on their website which I read first thing every morning together with MT's forecast!

maquiladora

The HIRLAM track is not far off the Dec 1997 track. The white line shows where the strongest winds were in relation to the center, possibly in part due to a sting jet type feature. A difference between 1997 and this storm is that it in 97 the low was still deepening as it crossed the country whereas here it looks like it will peak close to or over the southwest.

Still, even if there are no mesoscale features enhancing the winds, it could still be quite potent, and not just limited to coastal areas.

That's all assuming the HIRLAM/ECM solution is the correct one. This is still 2 days away, things change!

1997 :

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Looking violent for Cork
Major headache for Met Eireann when to issue an alert

so much change already today that they will probably await for overnight runs or put out a yellow warning later this evening for Wednesday and upgrade accordingly (if necessary).

ninebeanrows

GFS Ensembles have made a significant jog north with the track from the 6z.

Hirlam type track now more preferred.

A few 97' like systems

---

big 48hr chart to come from the ECMWF tonight!

Oneiric 3

It is interesting that ECM showed a storm potential for this week a few days ago, only to drop it over the last few days, then suddenly to bring it back. Must have picked up on something days ago. IF this low proves to be a vicous as forecast, then the ECMWF model has to be the winner regarding the pinning down of this particular feature.

sunbabe08

could this bring more flooding to cork city?:(

snowstorm2013

Holy moly, where did this potential storm come from. Evelyn said no more storms this week and suddenly met e are talking about structural damage. Although I think she was premature making such a sweeping statement.

MiNdGaM3

A very clear northward shift on the NMM out to t42

Oneiric 3

UK fax 12z appears to have track very slightly more south than hi res models on landfall, but pretty much the same tight gradient on S and SW flank.

Aimsir

what day is this storm for. have some tech problems on map at mo

Xenji

Aimsir wrote: »

what day is this storm for. have some tech problems on map at mo

Wednesday/Thursday

maquiladora

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

UK fax 12z appears to have track very slightly more south than hi res models on landfall, but pretty much the same tight gradient on S and SW flank.

It looks like they left the fax unchanged from the 12Z UKMO global model.

ninebeanrows

ECMWF resolutely sticking to its guns..

Looking severe or even dangerous.

ninebeanrows

Note to mods: Time for the thread to be updated with warning etc!

ninebeanrows

Batten down the hatches...

maquiladora

12Z ECM has 850mb winds >100 knots just off the southwest coast at 48 hours.

It's almost identical to yesterday's 12Z run.

maquiladora

EURO4 not in agreement with ECM/HIRLAM. A complex/messy looking center with the strongest winds further south.

JanuarySnowstor

Well a red alert going by tonights models.
However time for it to downgrade so pbly wise for both Met Eireann and ourselves to see the morning runs first.
Its all or nothing here for the South

diceyd

sorry if already mentioned,sky news has snow over us tomorrow,is this likely?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

diceyd wrote: »

sorry if already mentioned,sky news has snow over us tomorrow,is this likely?

Hey dicey

Check the updates in the Winter Thread

Oscar Bravo

A good forecast on rte there from met eireann "more trouble on the way" . Violent storm force 11 in the south. Batten down the hatches!

Aimsir

M.T. what's your take on the storm?

mike65

Evelyn Cusack just talking about it on the weather forecast - not certain as to its track (please go north!)

maquiladora

sunbabe08

:eek: just checked as well, high tide is around 4 on Wednesday.:(

maquiladora

sunbabe08 wrote: »

:eek: just checked as well, high tide is around 4 on Wednesday.:(

I don't think coastal flooding will be a concern with this. At least not as much as previous storms anyway.

sunbabe08

maquiladora wrote: »

I don't think coastal flooding will be a concern with this. At least not as much as previous storms anyway.

well that's one good thing.

leahyl

:-O I've missed a lot this afternoon it seems!!! Is it bad to be excited about this?! Would there be rain involved also if this comes off?

cyclops999

Latest from MT:

UPDATE _ Monday 10 February 2014 _ 7 p.m.
________________________________________

ALERT for 3-5 cm of snow accumulating on some higher terrain above 150m above sea level on Tuesday, also more widespread hail or sleet showers, all of which will produce locally poor driving conditions but most notably in Connacht and Ulster, also higher parts of Kerry and west Limerick.

ADVANCE ALERT for potential damaging south-southwest veering to westerly wind gusts to 140 km/hr in exposed parts of the south and east, possibly as far north as a Galway to east Ulster line, with models now showing an intensifying storm tracking northeast across Ireland on Wednesday afternoon. The details on this may continue to change, watch for updates.

maquiladora

This is from the 0Z ECM, but 12Z seems to be pretty similar. Take it with a grain of salt as other models aren't showing something this severe. But this is what Evelyn was worried about on the forecast.

These are 10m gusts in knots. This would be stronger than any previous storms this winter or probably any winter since 1997 for southern parts.



Meanwhile, the UK Met Office don't seem to be buying this track at all. Their own models suggest a more southerly track with the strongest winds heading for Wales/Southwest England. Even their "alternative track" is further south again.

leahyl

This is all very tense stuff! Maq, at this stage is it likely that the South will get some fairly strong winds?

red_bairn

Well if Clare gets hit badly, they might want to rethink about the report they sent to the government.

goat2

i hope this does not come to pass this forecast that evelyn gave, MT is giving forecast for wind also, he is always spot on, wind storm after storm, must be loosening tiles with each storm, hopefully we will come out of it as we have the past storms,
just started light rain at moment,

what will friday morning early bring, i have a long journey to travel is there anything showing for that far on yet,

Villain

Very complex situation with subtle differences within +50 and while the difference are subtle the impact difference on land is huge.

Also anyone from Donegal needs to note that there is an Orange warning in affect for Donegal for next 24 hrs. I get why this thread is needed for this event but if this warning was for Dublin I think the thread would either include it or another thread with a Level 2 would be created.

Mr Cumulonimbus

maquiladora wrote: »

Meanwhile, the UK Met Office don't seem to be buying this track at all. Their own models suggest a more southerly track with the strongest winds heading for Wales/Southwest England. Even their "alternative track" is further south again.

Yes. 12Z Euro4 at +48hrs has a belt of strong winds to the south of Ireland.

munsterlegend

goat2 wrote: »

i hope this does not come to pass this forecast that evelyn gave, MT is giving forecast for wind also, he is always spot on, wind storm after storm, must be loosening tiles with each storm, hopefully we will come out of it as we have the past storms,
just started light rain at moment,

what will friday morning early bring, i have a long journey to travel is there anything showing for that far on yet,

Nothing certain about this storm yet. So much change in track already today but won't be tomorrow before any certainty. Interesting couple of days of weather though!

goat2

it is brilliant to be able to look up weather ahead here, i am thankful for this
.
i have a query,
i have one of those old weather clocks, i bought at car boot sale about 20 yrs ago and it is so accurate still, it hangs inside door in hall,
but now that we have these deadly storms, i have noticed, that the needle has hit the bottom, but it is when the needle is rising i see the more severe wind,
is it my clock or is this normal

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

This is all very tense stuff! Maq, at this stage is it likely that the South will get some fairly strong winds?

The potential is there.

Danno

goat2 wrote: »

is it my clock or is this normal

Usually the strongest winds occur just after pressure has hit the lowest and is starting to rise again, so yes it is normal.

You can compare with many other websites around, such as the one in my sig.

maquiladora

goat2 wrote: »

it is brilliant to be able to look up weather ahead here, i am thankful for this
.
i have a query,
i have one of those old weather clocks, i bought at car boot sale about 20 yrs ago and it is so accurate still, it hangs inside door in hall,
but now that we have these deadly storms, i have noticed, that the needle has hit the bottom, but it is when the needle is rising i see the more severe wind,
is it my clock or is this normal

This might help.

http://www.sciencecompany.com/-w135.aspx

Speak Now

Fingers crossed for the UKMO solution.

Harps

Hard to believe that we don't even know what country this storm is going to hit yet and it's less than 48 hours away. A more southerly track has been the more frequent solution though the ECMWF and Hirlam are usually the most accurate models for this part of the world so it's anyone's guess at the moment, definitely going to be glued to the models tomorrow.

je551e

Strong wind and heavy rain in Kerry now