The Great Storm of Wednesday 12/02/2014

maquiladora

bigroad wrote: »

One of the other models further back in this thread shows 100kt thats 115mph.Have we ever had that wind speed before.
That sort of wind will cause big trouble.

Those were winds at 1500m, not at the surface, though sometimes higher level winds can be brought down to the surface in events like this.


That's if it even happens as some of these models suggest....let's not get too far ahead of ourselves yet!

Mr Cumulonimbus

bigroad wrote: »

One of the other models further back in this thread shows 100kt thats 115mph.Have we ever had that wind speed before.
That sort of wind will cause big trouble.

I think that was a chart of the winds at an atmospheric pressure level of 850 mb, i.e. at about 3000 ft above the surface at that time.

bigroad

Not so bad thanks.No need for a underground shelter,I will put the shovel back now.

_Whimsical_

Is it likely to be as bad in the west (Galway) as it looks in the charts posted here? I thought it was more of a south event but it looks almost countrywide on some charts.

Mr Cumulonimbus

maquiladora wrote: »

Those were winds at 1500m, not at the surface, though sometimes higher level winds can be brought down to the surface in events like this.


That's if it even happens as some of these models suggest....let's not get too far ahead of ourselves yet!

Piece on 'sting jets' from the UK Met Office.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/p/Sting_Jet_Flyer.PDF

ThaitaniumM

GFS showing Hurricane force winds off the west coast :eek:
Will be such a storm if it comes off of course.

Mr Cumulonimbus

bigroad wrote: »

Not so bad thanks.No need for a underground shelter,I will put the shovel back now.

Unless you have your house on top of Lugnaquilla...........

bigroad

No i am only at about 250ft.I do think there has been an increase in wind over the last few years.Time for a wind turbine i think.We might aswell get some use from it.

sdanseo

0Z GFS rolling out. To me this looks like an upgrade for the southwest and a slight downgrade for the midlands, with the track being slightly further south of that shown by the WRN chart above for the same time (WRN doesnt seem to have a 0Z run out yet).

Max gusts at +36h just on the southern tip of west Kerry are shown here as 150-160km/h :eek:

Max gusts at +39h across the midlands shown here as 120km/h with max gusts in the Dublin region 130km/h.

sunbabe08

i know i said yesterday that it needs to hit dublin in order to get any warning now, but that was not a request, i was joking. jeez almighty that looks bad :(

should i not bother attending college tomorrow.

ninebeanrows

Remains a vicious storm on the 0z with the track much more consistent now across models.

One of the most major storms in recent Irish history could be on route.

leahyl

Good god, tbh I was expecting a downgrade overnight....still looks like the South/southwest is going to get the worst of it - it looks vicious!!

JanuarySnowstor

Ukmo has a weaker system.
We dont really know what the ecm does because of the timeframe.
My punt this am is stormy for favoured parts but a backing away from last nights extreme

Redsunset

And we're gone to Orange.

Batten down the hatches folk. Looks potentially very dangerous.

maquiladora

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Ukmo has a weaker system.
We dont really know what the ecm does because of the timeframe.
My punt this am is stormy for favoured parts but a backing away from last nights extreme

0Z ECM is near unchanged to the 12Z ECM. 956mb low making landfall over Clare/Galway.

The12thMan

Woke up to this:
@RyanMau Any folks in Ireland awake yet? This warm seclusion cyclone may be worst of winter on WED -- 956 mb
:eek:

Eight Ball

Tis just a bit of wind.

vickers209

Redsunset wrote: »

And we're gone to Orange.

Batten down the hatches folk. Looks potentially very dangerous.

Mets warning

National Weather Warnings

STATUS ORANGE
[
Wind Warning for Wexford, Galway, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick and Waterford

Stormy weather will develop tomorrow, Wednesday, on the south and southwest coast as westerly winds reach mean speeds of 70km/h to 80km/h with gusts to 130km/h.
Issued:
Tuesday 11 February 2014 07:00
Valid:
Wednesday 12 February 2014 09:00 to Wednesday 12 February 2014 18:00

maquiladora

Very rare to see Force 10 winds forecast for inland areas like this.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Very rare to see Force 10 winds forecast for inland areas like this.

was expecting downgrades this morning but still on track it seems. Do you think a red warning is likely Maq for down South? winds look up to 150km/hr on some models which would justify it.

Harps

Definite downgrade on the WRF overnight, max gusts around 130kph with the storm further north again, still a severe storm obviously but it was showing upwards of 150kph last night so a 20-30kph downgrade in gusts. Doesn't mean much really though as its looking like a nowcast with so many different variations at such a short timescale, better to prepare for the worst case which could be a storm rivalling 97

force eleven

Gerry Fleming forecast at 7.55 only mention stormy conditions south & southwest coastal areas - 'violent gusts'. But doesn't seem to be highlighted as extreme elsewhere.

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

was expecting downgrades this morning but still on track it seems. Do you think a red warning is likely Maq for down South? winds look up to 150km/hr on some models which would justify it.

The ECM does show potential for 150+ km/h gusts on the southwest coast. But it's still too early to say. EURO4 still going for a more southerly track compared to the other models and the latest HIRLAM is slightly weaker so you have to be a bit conservative at this stage still.

snowstorm2013

Met Eireann are suggesting the violent winds will stay offshore. Thankfully. Some of the charts on here show very severe winds as far north as Dublin, which could be very damaging in a densely populated area not use to such gusts.

hsilgnede

Be grand sure. Whats the worst that could happen. I mean its not hurricane Charlie

Macy0161

In my illogical head, Met Eireann are treating the threat serious if they've rolled out the Head of Forecasting for the 11.55pm and the 7.55am forecasts! Level 2 if it's the Eagle, Level 3 if it's Gerry.

red_bairn

hsilgnede wrote: »

Be grand sure. Whats the worst that could happen. I mean its not hurricane Charlie

Parents were distraught that year. They couldn't make it to Superquinn, Bray during that storm to do their shopping.

KingdomRushed

Well UK Met have it significantly further north than they did yesterday, with southern and central Ireland seemingly in the mix for 80 - 90mph gusts (145 km/hr)

M.T. Cranium

06z RGEM has dropped the 06z Wed pressure 6 mbs to 956 at almost the identical spot from the 18z run (now it's about 51N 17W). Uppers look stronger and everything else about the same. This would suggest GFS might also give a stronger scenario in a few minutes.

There is not much point in being too specific about wind speeds on land yet, given how short-cycle this storm is. As long as it has not peaked before 15z Wed then I think some severe gusts inland are quite probable.

maquiladora

Doesn't seem to be any noticeable change on the 06Z HIRLAM.