FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

BLIZZARD7 · 13-03-2018 5:17pm

GEM is super at day 4- As kermit alluded to, it's a forecasters nightmare. I don't think this will be decided this evening regardless of which way the ECM goes.

gem-0-96.png?12

Kermit.de.frog · 13-03-2018 5:26pm

It certainly won't. Not even if the 18z GFS was an "improvement" it still wouldn't.

Relying on the ECM again to keep the children in order.

Both UKMO and ICON are stubborn enough in their output which is a pretty problem.

Kermit.de.frog · 13-03-2018 6:34pm

NAVGEM 12z. Notable only because it's jumped from the dark side since this morning more in line with ICON and ECM.

navgem-0-102.png?13-18

My personal favorite is NASA's model evolution

geos-0-123.png?13-11

:troll:

JCX BXC · 13-03-2018 6:59pm

I'm thinking that temperature progression over Greenland is a litttttleeee too simplified.

BLIZZARD7 · 13-03-2018 7:19pm

ECM looking pretty good early on, -10/-11c 850s into the east Saturday lunch time.

ECM1-96.GIF?13-0

Artane2002 · 13-03-2018 7:23pm

That NASA model is awesome. Just a reminder that it's an experimental model if people didn't know.

sdanseo · 13-03-2018 7:26pm

GFS has now fallen into line, that's a good sign. Even if the big cold pool straddles that high up Normandy and over the channel we are still in with a great shot of some white gold. And it's the start of a trend northwards.

UKMO would potentially give us a solid few days of cool dry weather next week which would not be a bad outcome either. Anything beats rain.

SleetAndSnow · 13-03-2018 7:28pm

+120hr, not too shabby ECM!

IMG_1944.PNG.fd6bf52d2d96d58faf459224ad979a8c.PNG

BLIZZARD7 · 13-03-2018 7:29pm

ECM quite like the GFS up until +120 I feel, not the same as the UKMO anyway. Lots more changes to come with this.

120_mslp850uk.png?cb=27

Kermit.de.frog · 13-03-2018 7:30pm

Arpege

Overall we are no clearer really. ECM has moved a little to the south but not so much as to stop some snow into the east in particular. Would like to see things a little further north overall but still all to play for.

gabeeg · 13-03-2018 7:32pm

I think we'll have to wait for that low to pass before knowing with any degree of certainty.

Anyways, even if we just get a glancing blow I wouldn't be at all surprised to see another opportunity from the east within a week or two.

BLIZZARD7 · 13-03-2018 7:33pm

By Monday ECM is quite like the UKMO over Ireland, I.e a high in place, cold nights but pleasant sunny days, it is a more amplified pattern though with WAA going north over Iceland.

ECM1-144.GIF?13-0

irishfeen · 13-03-2018 7:40pm

Is the DWD ICON usually reliable?

nacho libre · 13-03-2018 7:47pm

gabeeg wrote: »

I think we'll have to wait for that low to pass before knowing with any degree of certainty.

Anyways, even if we just get a glancing blow I wouldn't be at all surprised to see another opportunity from the east within a week or two.

I think we will be looking north or northeast, not east after monday. A mid altantic ridge looks to be the form horse to see out March.
Before that it seems the high is more likely to sink south than go further north, I just hope the ECM and GFS do not eventually fall into line with the UKMO. output.

gabeeg · 13-03-2018 7:59pm

nacho libre wrote: »

I think we will be looking north or northeast, not east after monday. A mid altantic ridge looks to be the form horse to see out March.
Before that it seems the high is more likely to sink south than go further north, I just hope the ECM and GFS do not eventually fall into line with the UKMO. output.

uhoh

nacho libre · 13-03-2018 8:06pm

gabeeg wrote: »

uhoh

Yes i just saw that. Beast 3, anyone?:pac:

Nature is having a laugh

km79 · 13-03-2018 8:35pm

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

By Monday ECM is quite like the UKMO over Ireland, I.e a high in place, cold nights but pleasant sunny days, it is a more amplified pattern though with WAA going north over Iceland.

This please

Kermit.de.frog · 13-03-2018 9:00pm

irishfeen wrote: »

Is the DWD ICON usually reliable?

That's the German met office model. It's been recently upgraded and was very solid for the last cold snap.

It's consistent this time around as well. I wouldn't pay that much attention to snow accumulation charts on any of the models though.

Rebelbrowser · 13-03-2018 9:24pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That's the German met office model. It's been recently upgraded and was very solid for the last cold snap.

It's consistent this time around as well. I wouldn't pay that much attention to snow accumulation charts on any of the models though.

unless they show shed loads of snow obviously.ðŸ˜Š

Rebelbrowser · 13-03-2018 11:11pm

18z gfs makes it a blink at youll miss it affair and even then south and east only.

JCX BXC · 13-03-2018 11:21pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

18z gfs makes it a blink at youll miss it affair and even then south and east only.

Entirely expected though, each and every 06Z and 18Z appears to have the low further south and east than the other, arguably more reliable runs.

SleetAndSnow · 13-03-2018 11:22pm

GFSOPUK18_132_2-1.png.77f1408b73a2843ef5a33b6f4f6b91a8.png

colder pool just touching cork and the south east on the 19th. Post here: . 6Z and 18Z both seem to be moving this further south which I would expect.

nacho libre · 13-03-2018 11:32pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

Entirely expected though, each and every 06Z and 18Z appears to have the low further south and east than the other, arguably more reliable runs.

Yeah it's a consistent trend. I don't think the high will suddenly be corrected north in future run. Still at the moment it looks snowy for south east england and parts of Ireland on some of the models, but it could easily end up a dry easterly for all as per the UKMO if the other models keepings correcting it south. We need that low over Genoa to act as a trigger by moving a tad north to stop the high from sinking quickly. It will be a long time before we see an easterly again after this- maybe in 11 days time:D

esposito · 14-03-2018 12:08am

The UKMO seems to be a very good model that should not be underestimated. No wonder the bbc weather forecasters seem so bullish and confident when giving their forecasts. It often turns out to be correct even when the other models are singing from a different hymn sheet.

JCX BXC · 14-03-2018 12:10am

Always better to have the UKMO more bullish and other models catching up than the GFS most bullish and others catching up.

Kermit.de.frog · 14-03-2018 12:36am

Nothing is nailed yet. Some sharp divergences in the ensembles. Right now i'd favor the sinking high and the cold and instability ending up a little too far south. Don't count any chickens yet though.

Villain · 14-03-2018 7:18am

GFS overnight followed UKMO with cold going south but ECMWF is sticking to its guns

Rebelbrowser · 14-03-2018 10:01am

Villain wrote: »

GFS overnight followed UKMO with cold going south but ECMWF is sticking to its guns

On a quick view the ECM is the only one that didn't correct substantially south (even it shifted a tad south). GEM, Icon and Aperge all now following the UKMO/ GFS guidance. A glancing blow from the cold looks likely now with SE only real chance of snow (and even that isn't high).

Delighted now I told EVERYBODY about this "event" yesterday morning....

beefburrito · 14-03-2018 10:21am

If there's easterly off shore winds I'll be out surfing.....bring it on.
It suits the shape of the wave as it breaks.

Just say Lahinch where it's positioned, and you get a north eastern breeze or wind and south western swell...

The coast light's up.....

Mount Vesuvius · 14-03-2018 1:19pm

06z ICON wants to throw snowballs again. However Model concensus says glancing blow. See what the 12z Ecm throws up again.

Rebelbrowser · 14-03-2018 4:42pm

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

06z ICON wants to throw snowballs again. However Model concensus says glancing blow. See what the 12z Ecm throws up again.

12z ICON just rolling is sticking to its guns thankfully. Very cold and decent snow chance on Sunday.

BLIZZARD7 · 14-03-2018 4:49pm

Indeed ICON is very different early on, snow showers possible from Saturday evening and has the high retrograde somewhat, staying north of us and keeping a cold flow into Tuesday...

gabeeg · 14-03-2018 4:57pm

The GFS has a correction North too

gfs-1-84.png?12

Don't just sit there, get to a Lidl immediately, you fools!

ninebeanrows · 14-03-2018 4:58pm

GFS 12z a decent correction northwards of upper cold pool.

gfs-0-96.png?12

Will be interesting to see upcoming evening suites...

ninebeanrows · 14-03-2018 4:59pm

UKM corrects northwards also...

UW72-21.GIF?14-16

BLIZZARD7 · 14-03-2018 5:02pm

Beat me to it WC, Pretty decent correction northwards accross the models so far, UKMO at +72 hours is a very nice chart. High might not sink so quickly either if the ICON route gains anymore traction.

Might just be a bit more than a glancing blow looking at these changes early on.

BLIZZARD7 · 14-03-2018 5:07pm

If the energy coming East via the southern tip of Greenland here stays more on a more southerly trajectory then our high may take a trip to Iceland ala the ICON rather than immediately sinking...
One to watch out for, 12z GFS already slower sinking the high.

gfs-0-114.png?12

Rebelbrowser · 14-03-2018 5:08pm

Just to illustrate the difference even the limited northern corrections just now made, see below from GFS for Sunday evening...

102-574UK.GIF?14-12

Kermit.de.frog · 14-03-2018 5:19pm

Just a little further north please...

sdanseo · 14-03-2018 5:29pm

Ah Jaysus my stomach.

I was almost all in on Monday although would have held off the thread creation until yesterday or today.

Yesterday it was all off.

Now it may be all back on again.

It’s too much I tells ya. I hope Kermit has deep pockets to pay my psychologists bills!

wakka12 · 14-03-2018 5:34pm

sdanseo wrote: »

Ah Jaysus my stomach.

I was almost all in on Monday although would have held off the thread creation until yesterday or today.

Yesterday it was all off.

Now it may be all back on again.

It’s too much I tells ya. I hope Kermit has deep pockets to pay my psychologists bills!

Called the rollercoaster for a reason :P