FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

BLIZZARD7

GEM is super at day 4- As kermit alluded to, it's a forecasters nightmare. I don't think this will be decided this evening regardless of which way the ECM goes.

Kermit.de.frog

It certainly won't. Not even if the 18z GFS was an "improvement" it still wouldn't.

Relying on the ECM again to keep the children in order.

Both UKMO and ICON are stubborn enough in their output which is a pretty problem.

Kermit.de.frog

NAVGEM 12z. Notable only because it's jumped from the dark side since this morning more in line with ICON and ECM.






My personal favorite is NASA's model evolution






:troll:

JCX BXC

I'm thinking that temperature progression over Greenland is a litttttleeee too simplified.

BLIZZARD7

ECM looking pretty good early on, -10/-11c 850s into the east Saturday lunch time.

Artane2002

That NASA model is awesome. Just a reminder that it's an experimental model if people didn't know.

sdanseo

GFS has now fallen into line, that's a good sign. Even if the big cold pool straddles that high up Normandy and over the channel we are still in with a great shot of some white gold. And it's the start of a trend northwards.

UKMO would potentially give us a solid few days of cool dry weather next week which would not be a bad outcome either. Anything beats rain.

SleetAndSnow

+120hr, not too shabby ECM!

BLIZZARD7

ECM quite like the GFS up until +120 I feel, not the same as the UKMO anyway. Lots more changes to come with this.

Kermit.de.frog

Arpege




Overall we are no clearer really. ECM has moved a little to the south but not so much as to stop some snow into the east in particular. Would like to see things a little further north overall but still all to play for.

gabeeg

I think we'll have to wait for that low to pass before knowing with any degree of certainty.

Anyways, even if we just get a glancing blow I wouldn't be at all surprised to see another opportunity from the east within a week or two.

BLIZZARD7

By Monday ECM is quite like the UKMO over Ireland, I.e a high in place, cold nights but pleasant sunny days, it is a more amplified pattern though with WAA going north over Iceland.

irishfeen

Is the DWD ICON usually reliable?

nacho libre

gabeeg wrote: »

I think we'll have to wait for that low to pass before knowing with any degree of certainty.

Anyways, even if we just get a glancing blow I wouldn't be at all surprised to see another opportunity from the east within a week or two.

I think we will be looking north or northeast, not east after monday. A mid altantic ridge looks to be the form horse to see out March.
Before that it seems the high is more likely to sink south than go further north, I just hope the ECM and GFS do not eventually fall into line with the UKMO. output.

gabeeg

nacho libre wrote: »

I think we will be looking north or northeast, not east after monday. A mid altantic ridge looks to be the form horse to see out March.
Before that it seems the high is more likely to sink south than go further north, I just hope the ECM and GFS do not eventually fall into line with the UKMO. output.

uhoh

nacho libre

gabeeg wrote: »

uhoh

Yes i just saw that. Beast 3, anyone?:pac:

Nature is having a laugh

km79

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

By Monday ECM is quite like the UKMO over Ireland, I.e a high in place, cold nights but pleasant sunny days, it is a more amplified pattern though with WAA going north over Iceland.

This please

Kermit.de.frog

irishfeen wrote: »

Is the DWD ICON usually reliable?

That's the German met office model. It's been recently upgraded and was very solid for the last cold snap.

It's consistent this time around as well. I wouldn't pay that much attention to snow accumulation charts on any of the models though.

Rebelbrowser

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That's the German met office model. It's been recently upgraded and was very solid for the last cold snap.

It's consistent this time around as well. I wouldn't pay that much attention to snow accumulation charts on any of the models though.

unless they show shed loads of snow obviously.😊

Rebelbrowser

18z gfs makes it a blink at youll miss it affair and even then south and east only.

JCX BXC

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

18z gfs makes it a blink at youll miss it affair and even then south and east only.

Entirely expected though, each and every 06Z and 18Z appears to have the low further south and east than the other, arguably more reliable runs.

SleetAndSnow

colder pool just touching cork and the south east on the 19th. Post here: . 6Z and 18Z both seem to be moving this further south which I would expect.

nacho libre

JCX BXC wrote: »

Entirely expected though, each and every 06Z and 18Z appears to have the low further south and east than the other, arguably more reliable runs.

Yeah it's a consistent trend. I don't think the high will suddenly be corrected north in future run. Still at the moment it looks snowy for south east england and parts of Ireland on some of the models, but it could easily end up a dry easterly for all as per the UKMO if the other models keepings correcting it south. We need that low over Genoa to act as a trigger by moving a tad north to stop the high from sinking quickly. It will be a long time before we see an easterly again after this- maybe in 11 days time:D

esposito

The UKMO seems to be a very good model that should not be underestimated. No wonder the bbc weather forecasters seem so bullish and confident when giving their forecasts. It often turns out to be correct even when the other models are singing from a different hymn sheet.

JCX BXC

Always better to have the UKMO more bullish and other models catching up than the GFS most bullish and others catching up.

Kermit.de.frog

Nothing is nailed yet. Some sharp divergences in the ensembles. Right now i'd favor the sinking high and the cold and instability ending up a little too far south. Don't count any chickens yet though.

Villain

GFS overnight followed UKMO with cold going south but ECMWF is sticking to its guns

Rebelbrowser

Villain wrote: »

GFS overnight followed UKMO with cold going south but ECMWF is sticking to its guns

On a quick view the ECM is the only one that didn't correct substantially south (even it shifted a tad south). GEM, Icon and Aperge all now following the UKMO/ GFS guidance. A glancing blow from the cold looks likely now with SE only real chance of snow (and even that isn't high).

Delighted now I told EVERYBODY about this "event" yesterday morning....

beefburrito

If there's easterly off shore winds I'll be out surfing.....bring it on.
It suits the shape of the wave as it breaks.

Just say Lahinch where it's positioned, and you get a north eastern breeze or wind and south western swell...

The coast light's up.....

Mount Vesuvius

06z ICON wants to throw snowballs again. However Model concensus says glancing blow. See what the 12z Ecm throws up again.