FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

ninebeanrows

Is this a spoof! Madness. 12z EC !!!

BLIZZARD7

sdanseo wrote: »

ECM looks very cold, -10 to -12 uppers. But Irish Sea only at 6 to 7 degrees and has cooled if anything since two weeks ago.

For decent convection, 15 to 18 degrees difference needed at least?

Something that struck me as well. Snow depth charts are innacurate at this range, that we know. BUT the ECM snow depths from a few days in advance performed very well I thought. And for this potential event now only showing a couple of cm in Leinster.

Without a decent front we might get very cold clear skies for a few days.

They may have performed okay for Emma, I.e a frontal event. Pretty useless for convective showers. Also the March sun will set off showers even over land, better for areas further West than it would be mid winter.

13 degrees is the required differential, anything approaching 18 degrees or more can deliver very heavy snow showers. If we get sub -10c 850s I would be confident of heavy showers. The wind direction is very nice for Leinster on Saturday /Sunday on the ECM run.

BLIZZARD7

EC looking pretty decent for the weekend, op run not without support at all - impressive cold shot

SleetAndSnow

Seems to think snow is possible for large parts of the country, with mainly the south in east in particular (Trying to hop onto the hype train)

gabeeg

I've heard many times that the CFS is rubbish, and I'm not arguing.

Is it typically this bad though?

Kermit.de.frog

Bit of a trend on across the models to deepen this cold pool slightly with each run. Be interesting to see how long that continues.

sdanseo

gabeeg wrote: »

I've heard many times that the CFS is rubbish, and I'm not arguing.

Is it typically this bad though?

That's a chart for +1,074hrs? :eek:

May as well use a wet fish to predict the weather.

sryanbruen

sdanseo wrote: »

That's a chart for +1,074hrs? :eek:

May as well use a wet fish to predict the weather.

Only 6756hrs away. :pac:

Siobhan speaking of 'strong signals' for cold weather at the weekend there on the forecast. Lets see now if the GFS wants cold too.

nacho libre

sdanseo wrote: »

That's a chart for +1,074hrs? :eek:

May as well use a wet fish to predict the weather.

Yes it's usually a cannon fodder model, but if you recall M.T.Cranium mentioned that April might have blocking. Also some stratosphere experts were saying given what happened in the past few weeks we may have a cool spring overall, so maybe that CFS chart isn't as outlandish as it seems. Anyway it appears i might have to eat my socks:eek: Absolutely incredible stuff. It could be a brilliant weekend for various reasons- if you like snow and Rugby that is:D

gabeeg

sdanseo wrote: »

That's a chart for +1,074hrs? :eek:

May as well use a wet fish to predict the weather.

I've tried dry fish to predict the weather and got nowhere. Thanks for the tip.

What is the CFS for then?
Did they really make a model that isn't very good, give it a huge timeframe and then make it publicly available?

Kermit.de.frog

Slight upgrade to 120 hrs for potential on the 18z ICON run.

nacho libre

The GFS has the cold a bit further west at an earlier stage. We just need the UKMO to come on board for confidence to increase in this easterly happening.

dacogawa

GFS has quickened up from the last run at bring the cold in

-10s over the whole country a day later. Bonkers.............

dacogawa

GFS and ECM pretty much in agreement at 144 hours out...

dacogawa

dacogawa wrote: »

GFS and ECM pretty much in agreement at 144 hours out...

Good signs of precipitation at that stage too.

nacho libre

Is this really happening? Have we time travelled back to two weeks ago:D

SleetAndSnow

I was all prepared for the potential ''heatwave'' charts this late in March, not a second beast in the space of two weeks. The east looks damn cold, just need it go go a bit further west so we can get in on more of the fun in the south :P

nacho libre

How about a northerly airflow after the brief easterly? As i said those looking for spring warmth book a flight to somewhere warm, because based on most of the current output there is none to be had anytime soon for Ireland.

mickger844posts

Having looked at the trends of the various models I feel this Easterly 2.0 is locked in now. Should we be surprised this is happening again No. Maybe no storm Emma blizzard this time but plenty of showers off The Irish Sea which can dump lots of snow. We had over 8 hours of snow from Streamers here in Waterford the day before Emma so accumulations can build from an Easterly source

gabeeg

nacho libre wrote: »

How about a northerly airflow after the brief easterly? As i said those looking for spring warmth book a flight to somewhere warm, because based on most of the current output there is none to be had anytime soon for Ireland.

That booking could go very badly if you're not careful.

nacho libre

mickger844posts wrote: »

Having looked at the trends of the various models I feel this Easterly 2.0 is locked in now.

Well i would still be a bit cautious given the UKMO model are not really on board at the moment. They just keep the low out to the west of Ireland too close, Hopefully they'll do something favourable with it on the next run.

sicknotexi

nacho libre wrote: »

Well i would still be a bit cautious given the UKMO model are not really on board at the moment. They just keep the low out to the west of Ireland too close, Hopefully they'll do something favourable with it on the next run.

Met Eireann are already forecasting snow for Saturday evening/night and Sunday.

nacho libre

sicknotexi wrote: »

Met Eireann are already forecasting snow for Saturday evening/night and Sunday.

Surprising they committed to it so soon, normally they are more cautious. Also when an employee was interviewed they said it was an uncertain outlook. If their main model(ECM) shows something akin to the last UKMO run(hopefully it won't) that forecast will change.

nacho libre

UKMO is not great,
the high is too close to Ireland.

GEM gets the cold in earlier

GFS is much better, the high goes far enough north to ensure we get one last dance with winter.



if it then went a bit further to the north west, we would sustain the cold and get a north easterly.

Icon is very snowy:)

nacho libre

Hopefully it's a case of the UKMO doing what the ECM did(dragging its heels) in the last cold spell, before eventually placing the high further north in future runs to ensure a snowy episode. Lets see what the ECM does later.

nacho libre

There would be plenty of convective snow/streamers around in the east if these upper temps came off. Hopefully it's right, so we can get one final visit from the beast from the east, instead of the continent getting it.

BLIZZARD7

Arpege isn't messing about... All output is absolutely superb this morning except for the UKMO - it should come on board on the 12z today. This is looking like yet another notable spell of weather. Between this,what's come so far and also early next winter I suspect 2018 will be a major year in weather folklore.

Mount Vesuvius

Yes Blizzard7.
" May you live in interesting times" comes to mind.
Just the UKMO not hitting the target just yet. But definitely looking very chilly and snowy for parts of the East,South East and South going by what the others are showing us this morning.

derekon

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Arpege isn't messing about... All output is absolutely superb this morning except for the UKMO - it should come on board on the 12z today. This is looking like yet another notable spell of weather. Between this,what's come so far and also early next winter I suspect 2018 will be a major year in weather folklore.

Hi Blizzard7, may I ask what you mean by "and also early next winter"?........I thought more than five days was outside the reliable time frame?

D

beefburrito

derekon wrote: »

Hi Blizzard7, may I ask what you mean by "and also early next winter"?........I thought more than five days was outside the reliable time frame?

D

I think a lot of the ocean and stratospheric currents are all over the place.

Were going to have an epic July and August, can't wait to be surfing in board shorts.......

nacho libre

nacho libre wrote: »

Surprising they committed to it so soon, normally they are more cautious. Also when an employee was interviewed they said it was an uncertain outlook. If their main model(ECM) shows something akin to the last UKMO run(hopefully it won't) that forecast will change.

The 07.55 forecast on Radio 1 called for snow showers on Saturday & Sunday but becoming cold & dry into the start of next week.

gabeeg

derekon wrote: »

Hi Blizzard7, may I ask what you mean by "and also early next winter"?........I thought more than five days was outside the reliable time frame?

D

The sun goes through a roughly 11 year cycle of activity, producing what it are called sunspots.
Lots of sunspots means more solar radiation and higher temps.

We are now in or approaching what is called a solar-minima, meaning there are very few sunspots expected and a colder than usual winter can be hoped for.

Billcarson

gabeeg wrote: »

The sun goes through a roughly 11 year cycle of activity, producing what it are called sunspots.
Lots of sunspots means more solar radiation and higher temps.

We are now in or approaching what is called a solar-minima, meaning there are very few sunspots expected and a colder than usual winter can be hoped for.

Indeed and looking forward to the next few winters. What we have got this month is like a trailer for what could come regards cold weather.

Not as much precipitation being indicated on the latest GFS run as compared to the earlier one.

patneve2

Looking like a 24 hour window for snow showers at least in a frigid ENE wind if charts dont downgrade. Convective potential not as good as the end of feb but you'd expect at least a few inches off that. Atm looks like a better version of the mid march 2013 cold snap i think-hoping for those who live in E Leinster that the winds stay lighter than that episode though. Cannot believe im going to miss this one (if it happens)

JanuarySnowstor

patneve2 wrote: »

Looking like a 24 hour window for snow showers at least in a frigid ENE wind if charts dont downgrade. Convective potential not as good as the end of feb but you'd expect at least a few inches off that. Atm looks like a better version of the mid march 2013 cold snap i think-hoping for those who live in E Leinster that the winds stay lighter than that episode though. Cannot believe im going to miss this one (if it happens)

Your kinda wrong I'm
It looks mainly dry and frosty

Rebelbrowser

GFS definitely has cold pool more south east. With GFS though, as you know, comparing 0z to 6z to 12 z etc is sometimes not the way to go. Yesterday's 6z undoubtedly had it a lot further south east again. still, just shows this is not fully nailed on. Kinda sorry I've been ramping to friends, may have jinxed it!

BLIZZARD7

Yeah GFS 06z has the core of the cold into Northern France, the ICON on the other hand... -12c 850s in Saturday am. A very cold and probably snowy weekend if that's accurate.

Runswithfeet

Farmer popping in here,living in NW,are we likely to see a frosty weekend?

BLIZZARD7

Runswithfeet wrote: »

Farmer popping in here,living in NW,are we likely to see a frosty weekend?

There's a high chance of that at this stage yes.

BLIZZARD7

12z runs kick off with a very cold and snowy ICON run -

Rebelbrowser

Yeah, nothing to see here...

BLIZZARD7

GFS and UKMO very different to the ICON at just day 4 - hmmm



Cold pool goes into France on the UKMO

BLIZZARD7

Although the GFS 12z is actually slightly better than its 06z run, high and cold pool a bit further north.

Rebelbrowser

We've had worse charts than this....

Kermit.de.frog

Very difficult to give a forecast on the output so far. Marked differences in outcomes by Saturday.

Big ECM this evening. UKMO solid in taking cold air south in to the continent.

patneve2

ICON and ECM looking very good for the E Coast. GFS less so even though -10s uppers do make it to Ireland. Pressure however is too high so not as much precipitation as the more favourable models if it verified. ECM 12z will be crucial and hopefully won't tend towards the UKMO and GFS. In any case, out of this world output for this time of the year and honestly it's a bit of waste...would be nice to see these charts at the start of January!

Rebelbrowser

GEM is good too...