FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

M.T. Cranium

Yes I think so, all models in general agreement on this scenario this morning.

This will turn into quite a remarkable month, perhaps not as cold as March 2013 but coming fairly close if it turns as cold as some maps are showing 29th to 31st. Perhaps more unusual would be the three easterly events with snowfall if that's what happens again. Also very unusual, the highest temperature at the 25 reporting stations of met.ie is only 13.9 C and that does not look like being pushed any higher, if so it would be only marginal and whatever value we have at end of month would be four or five degrees lower than the average maximum for March.

Kermit.de.frog

ECM shows some frontal snow potential as early as 120 hrs.







More possibilities thereafter.

Artane2002

ECM looks good for frontal snowfall. I would prefer if the uppers were just a degree or two lower to be sure. The dew points (very important) look very good for many but not all.

beefburrito

Has something happened in the atlantic to allow all these eastern systems to push her away and take over ?

Danno

Interesting... 1816 the year without a summer, 1917 the year of Ireland's heaviest snowfall, 2018...???

Rebelbrowser

Even a snow nut like me would prefer warmth by Easter I must say.

Akrasia

beefburrito wrote: »

Has something happened in the atlantic to allow all these eastern systems to push her away and take over ?

Look to the north rather than the west. Arctic temperatures are "crazy" at the moment

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/27/arctic-warming-scientists-alarmed-by-crazy-temperature-rises

wakka12

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Even a snow nut like me would prefer warmth by Easter I must say.

You're not a true snow nut..Ill take snow in july!

Say my name

Danno wrote: »

Interesting... 1816 the year without a summer, 1917 the year of Ireland's heaviest snowfall, 2018...???

Pretty sure the early 1700's were bad too.

Ckit1

Danno wrote: »

Interesting... 1816 the year without a summer, 1917 the year of Ireland's heaviest snowfall, 2018...???

Brings a whole new meaning to Climate '101'...

A few centuries back... but in line with the run...



Full article:
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wea.3198#wea3198-note-0004

spookwoman

Ckit1 wrote: »

Brings a whole new meaning to Climate '101'...

A few centuries back... but in line with the run...

Full article:
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wea.3198#wea3198-note-0004

Just reading that and noted the
"January 1814 Dublin Exceptional depth"

Say my name wrote: »

Pretty sure the early 1700's were bad too.

The "Great Frost" of 1740-41, Bliain an Áir, or Year of Slaughter, was a period of unusually cold weather that lasted from around December 1739 to September 1741, it was an event that affected the whole of Europe, though seemed to have its worst effects in Ireland.
Deep frosts only occurred during the winter months, but there was little real respite afterwards as the spring and summer weather was unusually cold and dry leading to the death of livestock and the failure of crops, and therefore an inability to prepare for the second unusually cold winter. Records are scant and the population size only an estimate, guesses as to the loss of life largely through starvation at this period are up to 38% of the population.
Taken from https://www.mapspictures.com/ireland/history/ireland_population.php

There is also the mini ice age
Some good info as well on mostly uk but has a good few irish details go back to 1700 http://www.pascalbonenfant.com/18c/weather.html

Forgot to add 1708 /1709 was also known as great frost over europe.

Villain

As April fools joke go, I would like this one

BLIZZARD7

GFS 12z hinting at maybe a weaker version of this... Can we get one last kick out of this winter?

1st April 1917 - One of the heaviest snowfalls ever recorded in Ireland





GFS 12z, okay so quite a different setup, just showing to illustrate what is achievable at this time of year.

Pangea

Interesting post here
Severe snow-storm on 23rd of February 1933 and on February 1894 when there was 3 feet of snow.
https://www.facebook.com/duchas.ie/posts/719822774888615

sdanseo

Snow potential all but gone from 00z ECM and GFS not looking too hot (or should that be too cold :P ) either.

Hooter23

We might get upgrades again like the last 2 events...have to wait and see;)

Kermit.de.frog

Set fair for the moment. Nothing severe on the horizon. That could change though over the next couple of days.

kingshankly

Hooter23 wrote: »

We might get upgrades again like the last 2 events...have to wait and see;)

Upgrade to some heat would be real nice

sryanbruen

The models are showing a cold and wet Easter period, ugh.

Nothing overly cold to cause wintry conditions but cold enough to make it feel miserable and lots of unsettled weather in with that.

sryanbruen

Now they are beginning to improve, somewhat with a southern correction of the low pressure making cold air easier to flood its way south and high pressure build to the north and west.

ICON 06z at +120 hrs.



GFS 12z has the chances for odd wintry potential to occur but there isn't much precipitation at all on Easter Sunday on this run.

sdanseo

ECM just looks dismal. -4 uppers the whole time meaning 4 to 6 degrees, cool, damp, miserable, dull and generally crap.

Love this country. But hate its weather at times.

Today meanwhile was bloody glorious. Went for a 6hr drive for no apparent reason and basked in sunshine for 5h30 of it.

kingshankly

Check in only three posts today woohoo that means no snow 😅😅

nacho libre

kingshankly wrote: »

Check in only three posts today woohoo that means no snow ����

No snow. However I thought you wanted warm weather, currently there is none of that on offer, it wil be cold for the time of year and quite wet. So I don't see much to get excited about. The jetstream being well to the south is again causing low pressures to meander about near us.

amadangomor

What are the chances we get a prolonged period with the jetstream south of us? I'm talking 4/5 months plus. If so would it mean continuing easterlies in general and the chance of a scorching summer? 1995 springs to mind

jdcv94

amadangomor wrote: »

What are the chances we get a prolonged period with the jetstream south of us? I'm talking 4/5 months plus. If so would it mean continuing easterlies in general and the chance of a scorching summer? 1995 springs to mind

I asked this a few weeks ago, responses were generally along the lines of warmer but damper due to these meandering low pressures from Biscay and us being an island jutting out into an ocean.

beefburrito

amadangomor wrote: »

What are the chances we get a prolonged period with the jetstream south of us? I'm talking 4/5 months plus. If so would it mean continuing easterlies in general and the chance of a scorching summer? 1995 springs to mind

Sounds like a drought could be on the way,the rivers are dangerously low at the moment.
And if the jetstream changes that will mean offshore winds keeping the atlantic away,lakes will go stagnant rivers will clog up with weeds....
More water restrictions, back in 95 there wasn't as much of a demand on water...

Macy0161

beefburrito wrote: »

Sounds like a drought could be on the way,the rivers are dangerously low at the moment.

Are they? Up here in the Wicklow mountains, the ground is still saturated, and stream levels still up. It's been a few years since the Vartry Reservoir has been as high. Or is there an east/ west split water table wise too?

lawred2

kingshankly wrote: »

Upgrade to some heat would be real nice

are there some out there still looking for more cold and snow? surely the novelty has worn off?

beefburrito

Macy0161 wrote: »

Are they? Up here in the Wicklow mountains, the ground is still saturated, and stream levels still up. It's been a few years since the Vartry Reservoir has been as high. Or is there an east/ west split water table wise too?

Definitely, the River Fergus system consists of limestone and the land is very pourous in the Burren.

Unlike granite which is hard rock, limestone is totally different.

It's quite interesting, turloughs, underground lake's and streams it's unique really.

sryanbruen

I'll take the GFS 0z FI please.

Elmer Blooker

sryanbruen wrote: »

I'll take the GFS 0z FI please.

This is more to my liking. Lets squeeze the last drop out of winter!
When does spring even begin Ireland?

DavidJC

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

This is more to my liking. Lets squeeze the last drop out of winter!
When does spring even begin Ireland?

It began and ended on Saturday.

sryanbruen

The latest runs are too unbearable to look at. Basically, very wet and cold into April.

JCX BXC

sryanbruen wrote: »

The latest runs are too unbearable to look at. Basically, very wet and cold into April.

Ah jaysus Syran not like we've never had it before! Never took you as one for sensationalizing!

frash

sryanbruen wrote: »

The latest runs are too unbearable to look at. Basically, very wet and cold into April.

Don't suppose there's one of those Cork shields up?
Heading to West Cork for the Easter break.

nacho libre

No good news on the latest ecm long range forecast for those who crave warmth, it looks like it will stay on the cool side till the third week of April at least.

Kermit.de.frog

Overall unsettled and often wet right out until the 4th of April. No sign of a breakthrough for Spring yet.

nacho libre

the new models say yes:

Now we just need the other models to back it:pac:

Irish Steve

nacho libre wrote: »

the new models say yes:

Now we just need the other models to back it:pac:

And for the watchers who are not as experienced, (like me,) what are they now saying yes to?

It's clear that there's some cooler air coming in from the east (again) what's not clear is if that means just cold, or it it's also going to mean snow, and if there is going to be snow, where, and how much, as those are the sorts of things that are significant over a holiday weekend, where a lot of people will be travelling.

nacho libre

Irish Steve wrote: »

And for the watchers who are not as experienced, (like me,) what are they now saying yes to?
.

Most models are showing it as cold and wet over Easter, not cold enough for snow, though. If there was a likelihood of snow Kermit the Frog would have started a thread about it by now.

pauldry

No temperatures over Easter will be 6 or 7c and -1c at night.

Kermit.de.frog

Outlook is a bit colder now with this morning's models in to April. Still not any concern in terms of snow at low levels but that could be changing.

kingshankly

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Outlook is a bit colder now with this morning's models in to April. Still not any concern in terms of snow at low levels but that could be changing.

Changing to nice weather or changing to snow ?

Kermit.de.frog

kingshankly wrote: »

Changing to nice weather or changing to snow ?

Snow For now, the trend is toward potential snowfall but again still up in the air at the moment.

pauldry

Yes could be borderline for snow at night.

Dont see any warmth at all in charts.

April will be colder than average too

Last year it was 4c on the last week of April but some warmth came in May so maybe we will get similar

When hills/high ground is mentioned, how high is high?

NAGDEFI

Dónal wrote: »

When hills/high ground is mentioned, how high is high?

180-200 metres above sea level generally. You can google my height above sea level to find out for your location by dragging a little icon to the spot:)

Here's one site.. https://www.whatismyelevation.com/

Snow level tomorrow would be around 500m above sea level i'd guess. The higher mountains.

Danno

amadangomor wrote: »

What are the chances we get a prolonged period with the jetstream south of us? I'm talking 4/5 months plus. If so would it mean continuing easterlies in general and the chance of a scorching summer? 1995 springs to mind

Jetstream to our south would deliver a summer similar to the ones from 2007-2012.

We need the jetstream well to our north to deliver a nice summer.

sryanbruen

The GFS is picking up on a snow event to occur next Monday/Tuesday - or at least around these days - locations of snow and timings of it are slightly different with the 0z and 06z but both show a snow event to occur before milder air invades from the south. I've marked the margin lines of mild and cool so it's an indication where snow is possible (not certain). I'm certainly no snow expert, these are just my estimates and interpretations.

0z

+120 hrs



+144 hrs



06z

+120 hrs



+144 hrs

Kermit.de.frog

UKMO is looking wintry over the weekend and in to the start of next week with wintry showers in the east and north of hail, sleet and snow.

The fronts look kept well south to the middle of next week.

Broadly similar to the GFS posted above but that bit colder.