FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

charts looking very promising, last week I was in the mind of we've seen enough snow for this season, but now I want the east to bring everything it's got for us, I want to see whiteouts.

To Alcohol

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yes, important ECM this evening. Good signs overall for some much colder weather (if that's what you want!).

Its the 12th March. Surely a frog should be longing for some nice spring weather?

BLIZZARD7

Arpege looking like a direct hit too...

Kermit.de.frog

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Arpege looking like a direct hit too...

Beat me to it Blizzard!

sjb25

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Arpege looking like a direct hit too...

Ah here I knew opening the pubs on Good Friday was a mistake

YanSno

Looks like we in for colder weather next weekend. Let's see if Ecm follows

BLIZZARD7

ECM says YES! A white paddy's day with heavy snow moving into the east, sub -10c uppers.



I just hope the rugby isn't affected...

Kermit.de.frog

I think that i'll do on the ECM.

Sure, i'll put something together and have it up in about an hour...

PRELIMINARY...

BLIZZARD7

That's a bloody remarkably cold shot for this time of year at day 5 - Records would be under pressure again. -12c 850s into the North East. 10-12c below normal.

sdanseo

ECM looks very cold, -10 to -12 uppers. But Irish Sea only at 6 to 7 degrees and has cooled if anything since two weeks ago.

For decent convection, 15 to 18 degrees difference needed at least?

Something that struck me as well. Snow depth charts are innacurate at this range, that we know. BUT the ECM snow depths from a few days in advance performed very well I thought. And for this potential event now only showing a couple of cm in Leinster.

Without a decent front we might get very cold clear skies for a few days.

ninebeanrows

Is this a spoof! Madness. 12z EC !!!

BLIZZARD7

sdanseo wrote: »

ECM looks very cold, -10 to -12 uppers. But Irish Sea only at 6 to 7 degrees and has cooled if anything since two weeks ago.

For decent convection, 15 to 18 degrees difference needed at least?

Something that struck me as well. Snow depth charts are innacurate at this range, that we know. BUT the ECM snow depths from a few days in advance performed very well I thought. And for this potential event now only showing a couple of cm in Leinster.

Without a decent front we might get very cold clear skies for a few days.

They may have performed okay for Emma, I.e a frontal event. Pretty useless for convective showers. Also the March sun will set off showers even over land, better for areas further West than it would be mid winter.

13 degrees is the required differential, anything approaching 18 degrees or more can deliver very heavy snow showers. If we get sub -10c 850s I would be confident of heavy showers. The wind direction is very nice for Leinster on Saturday /Sunday on the ECM run.

BLIZZARD7

EC looking pretty decent for the weekend, op run not without support at all - impressive cold shot

SleetAndSnow

Seems to think snow is possible for large parts of the country, with mainly the south in east in particular (Trying to hop onto the hype train)

gabeeg

I've heard many times that the CFS is rubbish, and I'm not arguing.

Is it typically this bad though?

Kermit.de.frog

Bit of a trend on across the models to deepen this cold pool slightly with each run. Be interesting to see how long that continues.

sdanseo

gabeeg wrote: »

I've heard many times that the CFS is rubbish, and I'm not arguing.

Is it typically this bad though?

That's a chart for +1,074hrs? :eek:

May as well use a wet fish to predict the weather.

sryanbruen

sdanseo wrote: »

That's a chart for +1,074hrs? :eek:

May as well use a wet fish to predict the weather.

Only 6756hrs away. :pac:

Siobhan speaking of 'strong signals' for cold weather at the weekend there on the forecast. Lets see now if the GFS wants cold too.

nacho libre

sdanseo wrote: »

That's a chart for +1,074hrs? :eek:

May as well use a wet fish to predict the weather.

Yes it's usually a cannon fodder model, but if you recall M.T.Cranium mentioned that April might have blocking. Also some stratosphere experts were saying given what happened in the past few weeks we may have a cool spring overall, so maybe that CFS chart isn't as outlandish as it seems. Anyway it appears i might have to eat my socks:eek: Absolutely incredible stuff. It could be a brilliant weekend for various reasons- if you like snow and Rugby that is:D

gabeeg

sdanseo wrote: »

That's a chart for +1,074hrs? :eek:

May as well use a wet fish to predict the weather.

I've tried dry fish to predict the weather and got nowhere. Thanks for the tip.

What is the CFS for then?
Did they really make a model that isn't very good, give it a huge timeframe and then make it publicly available?

Kermit.de.frog

Slight upgrade to 120 hrs for potential on the 18z ICON run.

nacho libre

The GFS has the cold a bit further west at an earlier stage. We just need the UKMO to come on board for confidence to increase in this easterly happening.

dacogawa

GFS has quickened up from the last run at bring the cold in

-10s over the whole country a day later. Bonkers.............

dacogawa

GFS and ECM pretty much in agreement at 144 hours out...

dacogawa

dacogawa wrote: »

GFS and ECM pretty much in agreement at 144 hours out...

Good signs of precipitation at that stage too.

nacho libre

Is this really happening? Have we time travelled back to two weeks ago:D

SleetAndSnow

I was all prepared for the potential ''heatwave'' charts this late in March, not a second beast in the space of two weeks. The east looks damn cold, just need it go go a bit further west so we can get in on more of the fun in the south :P

nacho libre

How about a northerly airflow after the brief easterly? As i said those looking for spring warmth book a flight to somewhere warm, because based on most of the current output there is none to be had anytime soon for Ireland.