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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,462 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    UKMO 12z is teasing an easterly to take place. High pressure is forming to the east of Europe trying to go up to Scandinavia as the low pressure stalls over Ireland.

    ZCWgQNe.gif

    GFS 12z gets here too by +240hrs.

    o5qt8Qr.png

    1sbaIkM.png

    Low pressure stalling over Ireland, Scandinavian High forming. Two precursors to an easterly, let's see how she goes.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    We’d be much better off if the fledgling azores high to the southwest on that ukmo model ridged northeast
    Snow and cold with all due respect can Feck off now
    That’s my hopecast based on that chart
    Low teens next week anyway,that’s a start


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    The trend is for a quite decent pooling of frigid air over far NE Europe with 1 or maybe 2 final cold waves coming down somewhere in Europe before winter is over. Anybody fancy some nice April snow? Funnily enough it was a snowfall in mid April 1999 that ignited my passion for cold and snowy weather. 6cm in Dublin airport that morning, melted by midday.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    I don’t disagree on the probability whilst the jet is into Morocco
    However when that rebounds back to where it’s supposed to be,any residual cold will move further east into Russia never hopefully to bother Ireland at least (maybe briefly east anglia) untill next winter
    I’d expect that by the time further artic leakage occurs that the jet will be back hopefully before


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,508 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I
    I’d expect that by the time further artic leakage occurs that the jet will be back hopefully before

    Hopefully not. As when the zonal winds reverse it will take some time for the jet to return to normal. Bring on a late Match or April snow storm, ala 1917:D
    If the possibility of an Easterly is mentioned in the latest UKMO update then it might be time to take notice.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Hopefully not. As when the zonal winds reverse it will take some time for the jet to return to normal. Bring on a late Match or April snow storm, ala 1917:D
    If the possibility of an Easterly is mentioned in the latest UKMO update then it might be time to take notice.
    The jet isn’t going to stay barreling into Morocco for 4 or 5 weeks on the trot,it would be unprecedented ,the Sahara would flood
    No nature I expect will say enough is enough and the jet will move more north
    You’d need the jet down there for at least another fortnight for Siberian balls to be played
    Highly unlikely,it’s a scientists fantasy in my opinion and it better be only that
    I never rule out anything


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,508 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The jet isn’t going to stay barreling into Morocco for 4 or 5 weeks on the trot,it would be unprecedented ,the Sahara would flood
    No nature I expect will say enough is enough and the jet will move more north
    You’d need the jet down there for at least another fortnight for Siberian balls to be played
    Highly unlikely,it’s a scientists fantasy in my opinion and it better be only that
    I never rule out anything

    While it's unlikely, as you say can't we rule anything out. Nature has been flipped on its head at the moment.
    We are in unprecedented territory with the major straospheric warming followed by an even more extreme Canadian warming(which has never happened before in February) - without which our easterly would likely have failed.
    As a result we have seen bizzare charts in the last couple of weeks.
    Also as i mentioned in the other thread after December 2010, you'd have probably said it was highly unlikely you'd see an event akin to 1982 within 8 years.
    Whatever happens strat experts will be studying the year 2018 for years to come. It seems we have a long way to go in fully understanding what goes on up there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,508 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    gfs-0-240.png?12



    Close to round 2, albeit not as severe, if this verifies.


    Also I notice the UKMO are in fact hinting at the possibility.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    gfs-0-240.png?12



    Close to round 2, albeit not as severe, if this verifies.


    Also I notice the UKMO are in fact hinting at the possibility.

    Yeah I always thought that 2-3 weeks after the initial blast we would see some sort of reload, how severe that may be is anyone's guess. It would be very unusual to see another potent blast but given the unusual strat developments I wouldn't rule it out. The Jet is all over the place still.

    Paddy's weekend/following week to turn cold to very cold under a flow somehwere North of East is my call. Winter to have atleast one more go at us.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    They may be studying rare events but they’re also studying normality
    I haven’t had a 1982 since 1982
    Long time

    2010 was fine it happened in winter at the start of winter
    I see no evidence that this episode will continue into summer as some fringe lunatics (none here) would like
    So expect me to look for signs of spring in this thread tbh and only comment on wintry weather if it’s at greater than 50% probability
    Currently I’d put it at 10


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    They may be studying rare events but they’re also studying normality
    I haven’t had a 1982 since 1982
    Long time

    2010 was fine it happened in winter at the start of winter
    I see no evidence that this episode will continue into summer as some fringe lunatics (none here) would like
    So expect me to look for signs of spring in this thread tbh and only comment on wintry weather if it’s at greater than 50% probability
    Currently I’d put it at 10

    Yeah to be fair I would also enjoy warmer weather at this stage but I never turn my back on snow. I would go for a 50% chance of a colder spell before months end and a 10-15% chance of it being severe. Only basing this on our highly unusual current setup from a northern Hemisphere point of view and also I'm expecting this blank sun to really start to show its hand in the coming months.
    It would not surprise me if we end the month with An IMT close to March 2013.

    Anyway time will tell, hopefully our summer ends up dry and sunny and not like every other recent summer of years ending with the number 8.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,508 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    They may be studying rare events but they’re also studying normality
    I haven’t had a 1982 since 1982
    Long time

    There are people in your county who say last week was equivalent to what happened in 1982. One thing is for certain, despite our love to complain, we are better equipped now to handle major snowfall now than we were back then. So perhaps your perception has been altered.

    I do however agree such events are rare here. Some of us, if not most of us posting here, will more than likely be dead before an event like last week happens again.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Oh I had more snow than in 1982
    That’s just because Emma dropped more moisture into the cold
    The drifts in 82 lasted a month though because they were twice the size of Emma’s and had a week long freeze before a thaw
    They won’t this time
    Why were they smaller drifts?
    Because here anyway Emma ripple drifted
    It dropped drifts in the middle of fields aswell as at ditches meaning it’s drifts weren’t as high but they could have been

    If the jet returns north, and it will, artic spillage will be muted on our side of Europe
    It would be very unusual for it to stay put that far south outside of the norm for a month which it would be in 2 weeks time


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,508 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    If the jet returns north, and it will, artic spillage will be muted on our side of Europe
    It would be very unusual for it to stay put that far south outside of the norm for a month which it would be in 2 weeks time

    The zonal winds are very weak now, and they are set to reverse after the third week in March, it would be unlikely the jet can return to its normal abode before April. It's not a certainity but it's very unlikely. As i keep saying we are in unprecedented territory. A few days of an easterly or a north easterly is not the form horse, more likely a continuation of the current situation, but when the UKMO mention the possibility it's worth taking note of.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,065 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Why were they smaller drifts?

    Because the snow was wetter? Here in West Clare all drifts stopped when the temperature snook a little above 0c.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Because the snow was wetter? Here in West Clare all drifts stopped when the temperature snook a little above 0c.
    Oh I agree as one explanation where that was the case in an area too
    I don’t think the temp went above zero during the entire storm here,even the wet bulb
    The snow never went flakey either
    I just think in this area it was sheer quantity of snow
    I walked across a 20 acre field during the storm Friday morning and I was Wellington deep,knee deep waist deep Wellington deep knee deep etc at various stages (and there was snow underneath that,I wasn’t sinking full depth)
    The wind wasn’t fit to blow it all
    Hence it’s still around today in great measure a week later despite several rains and lots of warm sunshine
    That storm truly was a taste of Boston at home

    Anyway we better shut up! This is the model output thread :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,508 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Judah Cohen @judah47

    It is late in the winter but this latest #PolarVortex forecast is supportive of yet another drainage of #cold air from Siberia towards Europe. #BeastFromTheEast, the sequel.

    Ding. Ding.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,299 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    There are signals there I pointed out the night before last. Seeing this drift in to some of the models. UKMO in particular but the GFS as well in upping thise heights over Scandinavia again...

    gfs-0-192.png?12

    Delicate evolutions though...


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,508 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    gfs-1-240.png.220d601fa93abffc9daf17d36a05ad7f.png

    Getting Closer.

    Hopefully M.T. Cranium is wrong, and it makes its way to Ireland in time for Easter:D

    With April snowfall in mind, here is an article from the late Philip Eden about a snowfall in April 1908:

    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/philip-eden/The-1908-snowstorm.htm


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,008 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    I've noticed that we could have a very cold second half of March but I'm not sure if I have the energy or interest for another chase.
    The SSW and the most exciting charts we've seen in years had this forum buzzing and all for what? - a three day cold snap. Time for a break and here's hoping for next winter.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,508 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I've noticed that we could have a very cold second half of March but I'm not sure if I have the energy or interest for another chase.
    The SSW and the most exciting charts we've seen in years had this forum buzzing and all for what? - a three day cold snap. Time for a break and here's hoping for next winter.

    I just don't get where you are coming from. A three day cold snap that delivered the snowfall of a life time for many, yet you are still not happy. You should have known with a west based nao the chances of the cold spell being sustained was long odds. Scandi highs don't tend to stay around long, but at least with an east based nao it would more than likely have retrogressed to Greenland, rather than Canada. No snowy episode will be perfect- either it's too late in the year for some, not long enough, or too early in the year to deliver proper convective snow. We are a tiny island surrounded by a vast ocean, that brings mild currents our way, we have to
    take what we can get. I'd love if we had a prolonged freeze with copious amounts of snow every winter, but they are exceedingly rare, sadly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,299 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    icon-0-180.png?09-12

    YQlGXC.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,299 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    ECM 168 hrs

    ECM1-168.GIF?09-0

    giphy.gif


    So eh, yeah...things are looking more and more interesting.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Kermit I’m going to get a dog after that cat...


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    ECM has a child of the beast knocking on our door - Could this really happen again? I'm thinking maybe...

    ECM0-192.GIF?09-0


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,508 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    ECM has a child of the beast knocking on our door - Could this really happen again? I'm thinking maybe...

    ECM0-192.GIF?09-0

    You beat me to it. Gerry Murphy might have to take another vacation:D


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    A slight shift north and we get a direct hit... Now haven't we been here before?

    ECM1-240.GIF?09-0


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,299 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The trigger is as soon as 144 hrs on the ECM

    ECM1-144.GIF?09-0

    A lot of evolution to go yet but steps in the cold direction this afternoon for sure.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,508 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    My confidence will increase if the next UKMO run shows something similar. This must be the Canadian warming coming into play,but as Sryan said the zonal wind reversal will not be as pronounced as last time so perhaps the odds against it happening are higher this time.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    My confidence will increase if the next UKMO run shows something similar. This must be the Canadian warming coming into play,but as Sryan said the zonal wind reversal will not be as pronounced as last time so perhaps the odds against it happening are higher this time.

    The thing is these patterns can establish with any zonal wind reversal, it doesn't have to be particularly deep (although it would help). This time of year is when zonal winds weaken anyway and we are approaching final strat warming time so I see little reason to think this couldn't happen again. Other than the fact twice in such a short space of time would be very unusual - we know neither weather or probability works like that though.

    u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png

    As kermit points out the trigger isn't really that far into FI so if this is going to happen we should know pretty soon - there shouldn't be the delays like with the first round.

    Even if we get a direct hit again the sun will be that bit stronger again and so we would require deep deep cold for it to be high impact weather. I wouldn't rule it out though...


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