FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

06z ICON wants to throw snowballs again. However Model concensus says glancing blow. See what the 12z Ecm throws up again.

12z ICON just rolling is sticking to its guns thankfully. Very cold and decent snow chance on Sunday.

Indeed ICON is very different early on, snow showers possible from Saturday evening and has the high retrograde somewhat, staying north of us and keeping a cold flow into Tuesday...

gabeeg

The GFS has a correction North too

gfs-1-84.png?12

Don't just sit there, get to a Lidl immediately, you fools!

ninebeanrows

GFS 12z a decent correction northwards of upper cold pool.

gfs-0-96.png?12

Will be interesting to see upcoming evening suites...

ninebeanrows

UKM corrects northwards also...

UW72-21.GIF?14-16

Beat me to it WC, Pretty decent correction northwards accross the models so far, UKMO at +72 hours is a very nice chart. High might not sink so quickly either if the ICON route gains anymore traction.

Might just be a bit more than a glancing blow looking at these changes early on.

If the energy coming East via the southern tip of Greenland here stays more on a more southerly trajectory then our high may take a trip to Iceland ala the ICON rather than immediately sinking...
One to watch out for, 12z GFS already slower sinking the high.

gfs-0-114.png?12

Just to illustrate the difference even the limited northern corrections just now made, see below from GFS for Sunday evening...

102-574UK.GIF?14-12

Just a little further north please...

sdanseo

Ah Jaysus my stomach.

I was almost all in on Monday although would have held off the thread creation until yesterday or today.

Yesterday it was all off.

Now it may be all back on again.

It’s too much I tells ya. I hope Kermit has deep pockets to pay my psychologists bills!

wakka12

sdanseo wrote: »

Ah Jaysus my stomach.

I was almost all in on Monday although would have held off the thread creation until yesterday or today.

Yesterday it was all off.

Now it may be all back on again.

It’s too much I tells ya. I hope Kermit has deep pockets to pay my psychologists bills!

Called the rollercoaster for a reason :P

PokeHerKing

th?id=OIP.FUTCt5472fiF1OKxU_sXTQHaEv&pid=Api

thomasj

wakka12 wrote:

Called the rollercoaster for a reason

All aboard the snowlercoaster

Definite northward movement on the GFS ensembles.

A little more and things get very interesting...

UKMO 12z yesterday day 4 vs Today day 3 - That's what you call an upgrade!

UW96-21.GIF?13-12

ECM looking similar to 0z run, small bit better if anything. A relatively decent afternoon / evening model watching for snow lovers

Hmmm UKMO is now a bit better than the ECM, GFS is quite similar though, just a little more shifting north please...

ECM1-96.GIF?14-0

EPS in-line with the UKMO option - Nice improvements this evening -

18z ICON is a slight upgrade for snow potential Saturday night

sdanseo

Greeland express anyone?

ECM1-240.GIF?14-0

YanSno

Latest 18z gfs has the cold air bit more to the north west

Yes, another slight nudge north. Further north the better (or worse depending on perspective).

nacho libre

Well, well, i thought this was done dusted. A great surprise to see these northward corrections. Surely it cant up grade any further, can it?
It could be snowy at Twickenham on Saturday afternoon!

Quite a few GFS ensemble member runs take things a bit further north. Something like this would see heavy convective snow showers fairly widespread.

Mount Vesuvius

UKMO is back in the room. Big upgrade. ICON aslo feeling the love. GFS still feeling it too but not there yet

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

UKMO is back in the room. Big upgrade. ICON aslo feeling the love. GFS still feeling it too but not there yet

yeah, change in UKMO from 2 runs ago is huge. GEM is great too. Sunday and Monday now looking similar to the Tuesday evening to Thursday morning bit of last Easterly. Suddenly feeling pretty smug about telling everyone about this days ago! Think met.ie are going to have to start putting out an advisory for cold (certainly) and snow (potential now for appreciable snow).

nacho libre

E155AD31-D098-42B1-8218-3D8D165E13BD.png.f9ab7f4ae19bc683dc7121243aa79952.png

I thought i'd never experience temperatures like this again in March:eek: Even if they end up being a degree or two higher, absolutely incredible stuff.