Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

MrMusician18 · 12-04-2021 5:19pm

bombs away wrote: »

The media do nothing of the sort, they pander to public opinion. Social media might be different but then that's essentially non professional with an open agenda depending on the poster. Certain news forums may have an agenda but they are definitely in the minority. And in Ireland I don't know of any with those sort of views. They certainly don't lead it. And that's as a former journalist myself. Jesus, some of the ideas on this forum are just mind boggling.

Of course media steers peoples opinion - sure for example the tag line /intro/slogan for Morning Ireland was "Setting today's agenda". Media picks a point of view and amplifies it. It's always been thus.

A former journalist that's never heard of an editorial seemingly.

Jack1985 · 12-04-2021 5:23pm

https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1381253017169768451

There's a reason for this. There is no variant that has demonstrated high consequence as referred to by the CDC, they classify under the following;

VOI - Variant of Interest
VOC - Variant of Concern
VOHQ - Variant of High Consequence

There is currently no vaccine escape' viral lineage in circulation that can be proven, yet we will spend the Summer obsessed by VOCs to the detriment of any sort of Travel recovery and at the expense of other high GDP contributing industries. It is quite an achievement that NPHET can fixate on issues, usually encouraged to do so by activists.

But as I said previously, get the popcorn ready.

bombs away · 12-04-2021 5:35pm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Of course media steers peoples opinion - sure for example the tag line /intro/slogan for Morning Ireland was "Setting today's agenda". Media picks a point of view and amplifies it. It's always been thus.

A former journalist that's never heard of an editorial seemingly.

Media takes a viewpoint based on the news of the day, it doesn't manipulate the public's opinion certainly not on purpose unless it's some of those rags people are reading nowadays, are you saying that Morning Ireland dictates what the public should express or think based on their tag line? Now that is news to me lol. Most editorials worth reading are thus, they're not designed to grab attention with their catchy intro's. They're just designed to report the facts. Maybe you read a lot of the Mirror by the sounds of it.

No requirement to be a jerk either. I'm expressing a viewpoint as are you but I've found over the years that viewpoints and opinions although varied are mostly full of crap. Goes for yours and mine.

bombs away · 12-04-2021 5:49pm

awec wrote: »

Of course they are not the same thing. This is genuinely getting silly now.

You started this discussion by asserting that the government doesn't care what the public thinks. This, IMO, is an incredibly naive viewpoint. If you believe that the public being opposed to these restrictions would have no impact on government policy or direction regarding covid then you are being naive.

Right now the government is enjoying a time when both NPHET and the public are pretty closely aligned on restrictions that are required. This, IMO, is obvious. They can easily make decisions that keep almost everyone happy and won't suffer too much fallout from either a health perspective or politically.

Therefore, the insinuation that the heavy restrictions on foreign travel are not what people want, or that there's going to be a sudden demand for sun holidays abroad are wide of the mark. I believe that most people have already written off summer 2021 for foreign holidaymaking. The fact that they have written off summer 2021 is of course relevant to the government as it will reduce pressure to open the gates sooner.

I would not be surprised to see travel pick up significantly post-September. Once vaccinations roll out widely then there will be immense pressure to ease restrictions.

If you took the time to read my posts which you obviously haven't, I said the government are not pandering to public opinion at present. Present tense. They were back in December. They are not now. They are now making their decisions based on NPHET viewpoints. Who are not the public. Just because they are both aligned, doesn't mean they are listening to both. They made the mistake of listening to the public before Christmas and look what happened. They now are not concerned by their viewpoint. I'm not saying that will change in the future, I'm just saying that is the case at present. Is it now clear to you?

Jesus I give up.

MrMusician18 · 12-04-2021 5:56pm

bombs away wrote: »

Media takes a viewpoint based on the news of the day, it doesn't manipulate the public's opinion certainly not on purpose unless it's some of those rags people are reading nowadays, are you saying that Morning Ireland dictates what the public should express or think based on their tag line? Now that is news to me lol. Most editorials worth reading are thus, they're not designed to grab attention with their catchy intro's. They're just designed to report the facts. Maybe you read a lot of the Mirror by the sounds of it.

No requirement to be a jerk either. I'm expressing a viewpoint as are you but I've found over the years that viewpoints and opinions although varied are mostly full of crap. Goes for yours and mine.

We are getting away from aviation so I will close out my argument with this and leave it at that. Editorials are designed to put forward the media outlets opinion or point of view. In fact, the Irish Times, the so called "paper of record" is celebrating today a particular 1951 editorial where it was of the opinion that the RCC was in effective control of the country. It certainly wasn't a popular opinion to hold at that time. Media absolutely steers opinion, it's why the wealthy have long sought to own loss making media outlets.

If the Irish media started running a stream of stories about how the curtailment of international travel was grossly unfair, you would certainly see a shift in the public attitudes. In fact I'd guarantee it and it would then become a priority for government to relax.

Nijmegen · 13-04-2021 9:50am

A sorbet for the "government are not pandering to public opinion":

Trust in the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) was at 87%, down four points on the previous year.

Meanwhile back in AV land, the boss of Virgin Atlantic, Shai Weiss, has given an interview to the FT. They're estimating business travel down 20% over the next two years vs pre-pandemic - which is actually a lot less of a drop than I've seen elsewhere, though I imagine their exposure is nowhere near a BA or Lufthansa. He's also joined the "it'll probably never fully recover" line of thinking around corporate travel.

The piece also cites YouGov polling in the UK where 4/10 business travelers say they'll do less of it post pandemic. To be honest, I think those sorts of numbers are on the positive side to where some forecasts are, but it's obviously all still nothing but pie in the sky speculation for now.

https://www.ft.com/content/b8766e60-1a20-41ee-871d-6b97dbee71e8

bombs away · 13-04-2021 10:12am

Nijmegen wrote: »

A sorbet for the "government are not pandering to public opinion":
https://www.ft.com/content/b8766e60-1a20-41ee-871d-6b97dbee71e8

What does that prove? How does that make the point that the government have any interest in what we think at the moment? Have you even read it? We lost trust in politicians and NPHET, wow that's a shocker. You believe they're going to change their strategy based on that? You're having a laugh.

Nijmegen · 13-04-2021 10:28am

bombs away wrote: »

What does that prove? How does that make the point that the government have any interest in what we think at the moment? Have you even read it? We lost trust in politicians and NPHET, wow that's a shocker. You believe they're going to change their strategy based on that? You're having a laugh.

The survey shows that 87% of the public trust NPHET, down 4% on the prior year. That's hardly "lost trust", it's an overwhelming show of trust in the advice they issue, with only a slight decline during a period of significant hardship that emanated from NPHET advice on lockdowns. I actually think the public both trusts what NPHET is saying while at the same time relaxing their approach to some restrictions, as we see in other data, out of exhaustion.

I think the faith of some that if only the public was shown a few more news items on this or that, they'd change their mind, is misplaced. The Irish people trust NPHET even if they're tired of lockdowns and I doubt you'd see major support for, for example, allowing in a load of tourists from abroad over the summer while we're still going through the gears on vaccination.

From an aviation and tourism point of view, 2021 is a relative (to pre pandemic) write off the same as 2020 was. Maybe things are going again a bit by autumn or winter, but that's not a highly profitable time in the life of the industry. The focus now should be on the approaches required to keep things going (state supports, restructuring, domestic demand, etc) rather than shouting into the echo chamber about how unfair it all is and how it's a grand conspiracy by a government out of touch. I just don't think the data supports that and if any decision makers were spending their energy on that line of thinking, it's time they're not spending trying to preserve their business.

bombs away · 13-04-2021 10:59am

Nijmegen wrote: »

The survey shows that 87% of the public trust NPHET, down 4% on the prior year. That's hardly "lost trust", it's an overwhelming show of trust in the advice they issue, with only a slight decline during a period of significant hardship that emanated from NPHET advice on lockdowns. I actually think the public both trusts what NPHET is saying while at the same time relaxing their approach to some restrictions, as we see in other data, out of exhaustion.

I think the faith of some that if only the public was shown a few more news items on this or that, they'd change their mind, is misplaced. The Irish people trust NPHET even if they're tired of lockdowns and I doubt you'd see major support for, for example, allowing in a load of tourists from abroad over the summer while we're still going through the gears on vaccination.

From an aviation and tourism point of view, 2021 is a relative (to pre pandemic) write off the same as 2020 was. Maybe things are going again a bit by autumn or winter, but that's not a highly profitable time in the life of the industry. The focus now should be on the approaches required to keep things going (state supports, restructuring, domestic demand, etc) rather than shouting into the echo chamber about how unfair it all is and how it's a grand conspiracy by a government out of touch. I just don't think the data supports that and if any decision makers were spending their energy on that line of thinking, it's time they're not spending trying to preserve their business.

Still have no idea how that proves that the government care what we think at the moment?

This sums up these idiotic restrictions perfectly, own goal by the country as far as I’m concerned.

Jack1985 · 14-04-2021 12:31am

EU embassies want answers on how the MHQ system operates and why their respective countries were placed on it.

Christ the Gov don't even know how it works.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/state-facing-pressure-from-eu-countries-after-expanding-hotel-quarantine-list-1.4536562?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fireland%2Firish-news%2Fstate-facing-pressure-from-eu-countries-after-expanding-hotel-quarantine-list-1.4536562

NSAman · 14-04-2021 4:18am

So caps are going to be used according to Donnelly. Airlines are going to have to call in advance for places....

As the above letter shows, there are tens of thousands of Irish people here in the states alone wanting to come home. 20 of my own friends got the vaccine(including myself) to be able to travel. Their parent(s) are mostly vaccinated at this stage. So now we are told that the airlines (Aer Lingus for most) will have to implement a no-place-no-fly policy, is that leaving the airlines open to lawsuits themselves? I think the government blocking people coming home is totally breaking the law and may result in court challenges/cases.

It would be interesting to see three or four fully loaded airbus 330’s arrive in Dublin with vaccinated irish citizens.... what the hell would happen?

MadYaker · 14-04-2021 5:50am

bombs away wrote: »

Still have no idea how that proves that the government care what we think at the moment?

This sums up these idiotic restrictions perfectly, own goal by the country as far as I’m concerned.

The government needs the public to vote for them in order to keep their jobs so I’m not sure how you could ever argue that the government don’t care what the people think. Any opinion polls I’ve seen have shown large public for NPHET and restrictions in some form throughout this pandemic.

As regards to the article my understanding is that vaccinated people can still spread the virus so I think until we have a higher % of people vaccinated domestically the MHQ will have to stay. The US has done away with that but they are far ahead of us in terms of vaccination.

bombs away · 14-04-2021 8:10am

MadYaker wrote: »

The government needs the public to vote for them in order to keep their jobs so I’m not sure how you could ever argue that the government don’t care what the people think. Any opinion polls I’ve seen have shown large public for NPHET and restrictions in some form throughout this pandemic.

As regards to the article my understanding is that vaccinated people can still spread the virus so I think until we have a higher % of people vaccinated domestically the MHQ will have to stay. The US has done away with that but they are far ahead of us in terms of vaccination.

I said at present, during an election year of course they care. Any election is years away, they’re pretty safe for now.

Anyone who is vaccinated is at significantly less risk than someone who isn't off spreading it like most of the population of Ireland at the moment who haven't had a vaccine. I'd much rather have people from Israel or the States who are fully vaccinated walking around the streets of Dublin than you or I.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-21/pfizer-biontech-shot-stops-covid-s-spread-israeli-study-shows

Nijmegen · 14-04-2021 9:26am

NSAman wrote: »

So caps are going to be used according to Donnelly. Airlines are going to have to call in advance for places....

As the above letter shows, there are tens of thousands of Irish people here in the states alone wanting to come home. 20 of my own friends got the vaccine(including myself) to be able to travel. Their parent(s) are mostly vaccinated at this stage. So now we are told that the airlines (Aer Lingus for most) will have to implement a no-place-no-fly policy, is that leaving the airlines open to lawsuits themselves? I think the government blocking people coming home is totally breaking the law and may result in court challenges/cases.

It would be interesting to see three or four fully loaded airbus 330’s arrive in Dublin with vaccinated irish citizens.... what the hell would happen?

Up till now the courts have been slow to challenge public health guidelines. And as MadYaker says, we don't have definitive evidence as to whether or not vaccines stop the spread of covid - some seem to, others don't. It's the person you might give it to, not your risk that matters if you're vaccinated (as we do know vaccines are basically stopping serious cases and death).

The stay on MHQ places is real public sector incompetence writ large. They expanded the list but didn't have hotel rooms available so paused the bookings? In a city famously short of hotels.

bombs away · 14-04-2021 9:45am

Would be very difficult to refuse entry to citizens of the country especially if they have been fully vaccinated as right to return legislation is a basic principle of international law which guarantees a person's right to voluntarily return to their country of origin or citizenship.

Airlines certainly won't be able to police this.

Whole thing smacks of serious incompetence on the minister involved.

Tenzor07 · 14-04-2021 9:48am

Nijmegen wrote: »

The stay on MHQ places is real public sector incompetence writ large. They expanded the list but didn't have hotel rooms available so paused the bookings? In a city famously short of hotels.

The Zero Covid Lobby has really sent this Government into a spin bringing in the MHQ, even Simon Coveney's brother has spoken out about it:

https://twitter.com/patrick_coveney/status/1382062554130825216

Jack1985 · 14-04-2021 11:02am

Nijmegen wrote: »

We don't have definitive evidence as to whether or not vaccines stop the spread of covid

Christ what planet are you on?? Provide the evidence to support the statement that vaccines are allowing transmission please.

L1011 · 14-04-2021 11:27am

General discussion of stuff like vaccine efficacy needs to be taken to the main COVID forum

14-04-2021 11:29am

Nijmegen would have you believe that every immunized person is a Typhoid Mary.
If there were any meaningful risk then flu shots would have been banned as they'd be spreading the flu, not protecting from it.

This is the level of disinformation that is being pushed on the general public.

edit: posted while moderation note added at the same time.

Blut2 · 14-04-2021 11:44am

Cork Airport to close for 10 weeks to allow major runway reconstruction -- https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/cork-airport-to-close-for-10-weeks-to-allow-major-runway-reconstruction-1.4537022

It makes logical sense to do the runway work this year while traffic is down, but I really can't see this helping to attract business back to ORK. In the time its closed I'd imagine a lot of what remains of its traffic will migrate permanently to DUB.

Nijmegen · 14-04-2021 12:49pm

I can't really respond or discuss the vaccine stuff, except to say that the science is developing and policymakers are clearly changing their views based on that evidence as it emerges and their response as it impacts on the aviation industry. As the swings and roundabouts on various vaccines prove, this is a moving target and certainties are not in abundance. Personally I do think some measures are less effective than others but I also have sympathy for policymakers who are having to make decisions in a fast moving environment versus the certainty that people in various industries and just at home would like.

EasyJet has announced they plan to run 20% of their normal schedule between April and June and then see an increase over the summer, banking on vaccinated Brits getting to travel around Europe for their holidays. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/easy-jet-to-ramp-up-summer-holiday-flights-as-it-makes-loss-085203147.html

kevinandrew · 14-04-2021 5:49pm

Blut2 wrote: »

Cork Airport to close for 10 weeks to allow major runway reconstruction -- https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/cork-airport-to-close-for-10-weeks-to-allow-major-runway-reconstruction-1.4537022

It makes logical sense to do the runway work this year while traffic is down, but I really can't see this helping to attract business back to ORK. In the time its closed I'd imagine a lot of what remains of its traffic will migrate permanently to DUB.

Vilnius Airport closed for 5-6 weeks in peak summer 2017 for runway resurfacing, the reasoning they gave was the better weather in summer supported the resurfacing. All flights temporarily migrated to Kaunas.

It was a much shorter closure than what Cork is planning and in different circumstances but traffic rebounded almost instantly for Vilnius.

basill · 14-04-2021 9:47pm

Blut2 wrote: »

Cork Airport to close for 10 weeks to allow major runway reconstruction -- https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/cork-airport-to-close-for-10-weeks-to-allow-major-runway-reconstruction-1.4537022

It makes logical sense to do the runway work this year while traffic is down, but I really can't see this helping to attract business back to ORK. In the time its closed I'd imagine a lot of what remains of its traffic will migrate permanently to DUB.

The airlines take a differing view. The planned closures will come about when it is hoped that we are let out to play. The questions being asked are why the works didn't commence 6-12 months ago. What the impact will be of this decision on the airport going forward is the question.

IngazZagni · 14-04-2021 10:21pm

basill wrote: »

The airlines take a differing view. The planned closures will come about when it is hoped that we are let out to play. The questions being asked are why the works didn't commence 6-12 months ago. What the impact will be of this decision on the airport going forward is the question.

I'm pretty sure the airlines agreed this was the best plan. The alternative was to have reduced operating hours for many many months. In that time Ryanair said they would not have an operating base in Cork due to the restrictions. This at least means that the airlines have certainty from December 1st.

Astral Nav · 15-04-2021 1:45am

basill wrote: »

The airlines take a differing view. The planned closures will come about when it is hoped that we are let out to play. The questions being asked are why the works didn't commence 6-12 months ago. What the impact will be of this decision on the airport going forward is the question.

A fair point. Bear in mind Cork is controlled by the DAA who tend to lack a bit of operational insight. If there is a late ‘21 travel recovery then a huge embarrassment for Cork airport and a further shock to the Munster economy.

kevinandrew · 15-04-2021 2:26am

basill wrote: »

The airlines take a differing view. The planned closures will come about when it is hoped that we are let out to play. The questions being asked are why the works didn't commence 6-12 months ago. What the impact will be of this decision on the airport going forward is the question.

Does anyone really believe there’ll be a meaningful return of traffic in September-November? We still seem a very, very long way off a relaxation in travel restrictions and when it does eventually happen it’ll be a slow and painful process.

Why this wasn’t done 6-12 months ago is easily answered by the fact that nobody knew what was happening from one week to the next, the situation was so fluid and unpredictable that airlines couldn’t firm schedules more than a couple of weeks in advance and airports certainly weren’t in the position to consider closures for runway resurfacing.

What’s changed is that reality has finally set in, the short term outlook is still woeful but at least we know what to expect. This time last year we still had hopes for a late summer 2020 boost, now we’re pretty certain summer 2021 is a write off and a winter recovery is going to be slow at best.

The airport has been all but closed for 18 months by the time this work begins, what’s an extra 10 weeks of actual closure in what will more likely than not be a continuation of dramatically reduced flying schedules in a traditionally quiet time of year.

bombs away · 15-04-2021 8:40am

kevinandrew wrote: »

Does anyone really believe there’ll be a meaningful return of traffic in September-November? We still seem a very, very long way off a relaxation in travel restrictions and when it does eventually happen it’ll be a slow and painful process.

Why this wasn’t done 6-12 months ago is easily answered by the fact that nobody knew what was happening from one week to the next, the situation was so fluid and unpredictable that airlines couldn’t firm schedules more than a couple of weeks in advance and airports certainly weren’t in the position to consider closures for runway resurfacing.

What’s changed is that reality has finally set in, the short term outlook is still woeful but at least we know what to expect. This time last year we still had hopes for a late summer 2020 boost, now we’re pretty certain summer 2021 is a write off and a winter recovery is going to be slow at best.

The airport has been all but closed for 18 months by the time this work begins, what’s an extra 10 weeks of actual closure in what will more likely than not be a continuation of dramatically reduced flying schedules in a traditionally quiet time of year.

As much as I dislike Stephen Donnelly, he mentioned on Newstalk last night that he was hopeful that the digital green certificate would allow travel for fully vaccinated people between EU states this summer and that the MHQ was only designed to last until then. So it might come back quicker than you think. Planned to go operational in June and it's legislative so EU states will be required by law to implement it.

https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/coronavirus-response/safe-covid-19-vaccines-europeans/covid-19-digital-green-certificates_en

AnRothar · 15-04-2021 9:01am

Astral Nav wrote: »

A fair point. Bear in mind Cork is controlled by the DAA who tend to lack a bit of operational insight.

Inquitus · 15-04-2021 11:40am

bombs away wrote: »

As much as I dislike Stephen Donnelly, he mentioned on Newstalk last night that he was hopeful that the digital green certificate would allow travel for fully vaccinated people between EU states this summer and that the MHQ was only designed to last until then. So it might come back quicker than you think. Planned to go operational in June and it's legislative so EU states will be required by law to implement it.

https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/coronavirus-response/safe-covid-19-vaccines-europeans/covid-19-digital-green-certificates_en

It doesn't look like enough people in Europe will be vaccinated for it to make a material difference.

IQO · 15-04-2021 12:24pm

Impact on the aviation industry:

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/0415/1209980-covid-19-quarantine/

A spokesman for Dublin Airport said while routes from some countries that have been added to the Government's list today have been busier since the announcement, routes from other countries added to the list have been quieter.

He said flights arriving at Dublin Airport yesterday were more than 60% empty.

It is understood that of the five flights arriving into Dublin from the US between 5am and 9am this morning, around 12 people are entering the country, with an even smaller number transiting to other countries.

One flight had no passengers on board.

Wondering how long these routes can be sustained like this.. possibly the US flights have some cargo on.

Looking at the arrivals board it looks like there are no flights from Italy at all until the end of the weekend.

bombs away · 15-04-2021 1:16pm

Inquitus wrote: »

It doesn't look like enough people in Europe will be vaccinated for it to make a material difference.

Please explain what you're basing that on? Or is that just an assumption?

Here's a link to the ecdc implementation plan which shows a reasonably decent uptake at the moment. Despite some setbacks with AstraZeneca and J&J the EU is still on track for 70% of the adult population to be vaccinated by the summer so I don't know where you're getting the idea that it won't make any material difference? I'd suggest you read the report.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/overview-implementation-covid-19-vaccination-strategies-and-vaccine-deployment

Acosta · 15-04-2021 2:44pm

Astral Nav wrote: »

A fair point. Bear in mind Cork is controlled by the DAA who tend to lack a bit of operational insight. If there is a late ‘21 travel recovery then a huge embarrassment for Cork airport and a further shock to the Munster economy.

I heard if they kept it open while doing the job, it would take 9 months, which means it would run into the summer schedule next year and ultimately they'd lose a lot more passengers than closing it completely for 10 weeks.

Hopefully it will work out for them. Given the slow vaccine rollout, Guards fining people at airports, the media obsession with air travel at moment, hotel qurenteen etc I would think the vast majority have already accepted they won't be going abroad for the rest of the year and have made plans to holiday in Ireland.

PommieBast · 15-04-2021 3:12pm

bombs away wrote: »

As much as I dislike Stephen Donnelly, he mentioned on Newstalk last night that he was hopeful that the digital green certificate would allow travel for fully vaccinated people between EU states this summer and that the MHQ was only designed to last until then. So it might come back quicker than you think. Planned to go operational in June and it's legislative so EU states will be required by law to implement it.

Will it include the UK though? Given how the UK gov't has painted the EU's Covid response as a benefit of Brexit, I doubt it..

bombs away · 15-04-2021 3:21pm

PommieBast wrote: »

Will it include the UK though? Given how the UK gov't has painted the EU's Covid response as a benefit of Brexit, I doubt it..

The UK are implementing their own travel system separate to what the EU are doing. The British government have mentioned that it will be compatible with the EU system dependent on the format.

AnRothar · 16-04-2021 8:05am

Acosta wrote: »

I heard if they kept it open while doing the job, it would take 9 months,.

9 months?
I suspect your source is slightly wrong.
Shannon resurfaced its runway during the night in about 3 months, Knock resurfaced its runway in about the same time.
Shannon closed from midnight to six during the works.

IngazZagni · 16-04-2021 9:18am

AnRothar wrote: »

9 months?
I suspect your source is slightly wrong.
Shannon resurfaced its runway during the night in about 3 months, Knock resurfaced its runway in about the same time.
Shannon closed from midnight to six during the works.

The DAA themselves have said 9 months. Thats because it's not just a runway resurfacing job. It's a substantial upgrade to the airside infrastructure which includes various things like new taxiway lighting and all the stuff you cant see like a new electrical system etc etc.

IQO · 16-04-2021 10:04am

https://twitter.com/IATA/status/1382736957277663237

Acosta · 16-04-2021 10:05am

AnRothar wrote: »

9 months?
I suspect your source is slightly wrong.
Shannon resurfaced its runway during the night in about 3 months, Knock resurfaced its runway in about the same time.
Shannon closed from midnight to six during the works.

It was a Cork Airport representative that said it on local radio.

Tenzor07 · 16-04-2021 10:55am

Well, with the FFFG Government busy closing down the country's travel links and confining it's returning citizens into Hotels it's only inevitable that it's destroying Ireland's position as a leader in Aviation services as well as important travel links which boost the very economy which is going to have to pay for all the Health measures in place now....

AL pulling aircraft out of Ireland and Ryanair putting resources elsewhere:

https://www.newstalk.com/news/ireland-is-last-on-our-list-for-investment-ryanair-ceo-warns-1180488

Inquitus · 16-04-2021 1:25pm

Heathrow CEO comments on current situation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j64qPiMy260

Inquitus · 16-04-2021 1:31pm

bombs away wrote: »

Despite some setbacks with AstraZeneca and J&J the EU is still on track for 70% of the adult population to be vaccinated by the summer

That number is for 1st dose vaccinations, which take nearly 2 months to build actual resistance to the disease and then a lot of countries are delaying the 2nd doses to up to 3 months after the first. To be truly vaccinated you need to have had 2 doses and also have the 8 weeks of resistance build up after the final dose. That adds in the worst cases 12 weeks (delay between doses) + worst case 8 weeks (after 2nd dose for immunity build up) so even if 70% of adults have had one dose by the end of Jun it could be up to another 5 months before they would be entitled to a vaccine passport.

Tenger · 16-04-2021 3:42pm

Inquitus wrote: »

That number is for 1st dose vaccinations, which take nearly 2 months to build actual resistance to the disease and then a lot of countries are delaying the 2nd doses to up to 3 months after the first. To be truly vaccinated you need to have had 2 doses and also have the 8 weeks of resistance build up after the final dose. That adds in the worst cases 12 weeks (delay between doses) + worst case 8 weeks (after 2nd dose for immunity build up) so even if 70% of adults have had one dose by the end of Jun it could be up to another 5 months before they would be entitled to a vaccine passport.

Which countries are included in “a lot”?
As of yesterday I had read about the UK and Denmark delaying the 2nd dose.
Germany is only considering it and it has been mentioned in interviews with Irish Govt members. The CDC in the USA have ruled it out.

And while it is correct to say that full efficacy takes several weeks there is remarkable efficacy (30-50% within 10 days) very quickly. Vaccines are rarely ever 100% but in the current situation their use is to reduce transmissibility. So 'every little helps'.

I just read an article saying that the Pfizer vaccine deliveries 95% efficacy 2 weeks after the second dose;
https://horizon-magazine.eu/article/five-things-you-need-know-about-delaying-gap-between-covid-19-vaccine-doses.html

This Lancet report from 5 weeks ago questions the validity of the UK decision to delay the 2nd dose:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00455-4/fulltext

As a non medical person the publicised numbers do support the gamble by the UK Govt.

From an aviation point of view Im guessing that any 'vaccine oassport' will only count for fully vaccinated people.

VG31 · 16-04-2021 5:26pm

Tenger wrote: »

From an aviation point of view Im guessing that any 'vaccine oassport' will only count for fully vaccinated people.

It's quite unfair to people who get AZ if you must be fully vaccinated since the gap between doses is 12 weeks.

The J&J single shot is very similar to the AZ vaccine and offers comparable protection to the first shot of AZ. It would be a bit ridiculous to consider someone who got J&J as fully vaccinated but not AZ in that situation.

bombs away · 16-04-2021 7:08pm

Inquitus wrote: »

That number is for 1st dose vaccinations, which take nearly 2 months to build actual resistance to the disease and then a lot of countries are delaying the 2nd doses to up to 3 months after the first. To be truly vaccinated you need to have had 2 doses and also have the 8 weeks of resistance build up after the final dose. That adds in the worst cases 12 weeks (delay between doses) + worst case 8 weeks (after 2nd dose for immunity build up) so even if 70% of adults have had one dose by the end of Jun it could be up to another 5 months before they would be entitled to a vaccine passport.

Full efficacy is actually achieved between 7 and 14 days after the second dose. Again you are pulling figures out of your ass.

https://news.weill.cornell.edu/news/2021/02/covid-19-vaccines-and-immunity-how-long-does-it-take-for-the-vaccines-to-provide

And even if only say 20 percent of the EU population had received their second dose by the end of the summer, it's still 20% more than are currently eligible now to travel. I'm pretty sure that's more than "material difference" as you claim. The passport will also apply to people who have recovered from the virus without having received one or both vaccinations or any which counts for a significant amount at present.

Tenger · 16-04-2021 8:35pm

VG31 wrote: »

It's quite unfair to people who get AZ if you must be fully vaccinated since the gap between doses is 12 weeks.

WHO data says between 8-12 weeks.

Under "dosage"
https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/the-oxford-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-what-you-need-to-know

Edit; saw a report on RTE that of the 5 inbound US flights on Thursday there were 12 passengers. One flight was empty.

Gammyeye · 17-04-2021 2:46pm

Are any Ryanair flights going from Shannon these days? I know someone who has a flight to Salou booked for mid May. Are all flights not grounded?

IngazZagni · 17-04-2021 2:56pm

Gammyeye wrote: »

Are any Ryanair flights going from Shannon these days? I know someone who has a flight to Salou booked for mid May. Are all flights not grounded?

Everything suspended until Mid May for now. It's highly likely the restart dates will continue to get pushed back so I hope they don't have high hopes of getting on that flight.

cson · 17-04-2021 5:57pm

Tenger wrote: »

WHO data says between 8-12 weeks.

Under "dosage"
https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/the-oxford-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-what-you-need-to-know

Edit; saw a report on RTE that of the 5 inbound US flights on Thursday there were 12 passengers. One flight was empty.

PHL-SNN is still loaded in AAs system for late summer.

Said it on here a few times, but they'd easily sell those seats (both ways I reckon) if FFFG had a clear pathway to allow vaccinated travel into Ireland. The demand for domestic leisure travel over here is exceeding 2019 levels. There are a lot of folks in the US who'd love nothing more than a week in Ireland blowing a couple of $k.

But the Government, and quite a few folks on here, seem to think that eliminating risk rather than reducing it is the best path forward. It's madness.

donkey balls · 17-04-2021 6:22pm

VG31 wrote: »

It's quite unfair to people who get AZ if you must be fully vaccinated since the gap between doses is 12 weeks.

The J&J single shot is very similar to the AZ vaccine and offers comparable protection to the first shot of AZ. It would be a bit ridiculous to consider someone who got J&J as fully vaccinated but not AZ in that situation.

I received the 1st dose of AZ last month with the 2nd dose to be scheduled 12 weeks later,This is all up in the air at the moment with the them pushing it out to 16 weeks.
Then saying people under the age of 60 should not receive the AZ due to issues with blood clots, No one knows whether the people who received the AZ has to start all over again with a different vaccine.
The so called vaccine passport can anyone really see that working where by you could have a couple with one vaccinated and the other not.

Tenger · 17-04-2021 6:33pm

cson wrote: »

........
........
But the Government, and quite a few folks on here, seem to think that eliminating risk rather than reducing it is the best path forward. It's madness.

I would agree, this virus isn’t going away any time soon. Even once it’s under control it will still be there.

We need to reduce risk and live with it rather than aiming for zero covid.

Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

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