Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

HTCOne

I think it is basically just their Scandinavian ops left on the CRJ now right?

Jack1985

Ryanair August results out;

Load Factor - 73% comparable to previous Winter periods in earlier Great Recession.
Pax - 7m in Aug 20 (14.9m in Aug 19) down 53% with 60% capacity in operation.
Rolling basis, annual traffic down 40% to 88.9m

Lots of price discounting to achieve above, Winter plan is to ground aircraft and slash capacity, take stock, and plan for recovery from Mar 21. Severe cuts planned for ROI.

Not bad results considering the anxiety out there perpetuated on travelling public, it could have been a whole lot worse.

Van.Bosch

Jack1985 wrote: »

Ryanair August results out;

Load Factor - 73% comparable to previous Winter periods in earlier Great Recession.
Pax - 7m in Aug 20 (14.9m in Aug 19) down 53% with 60% capacity in operation.
Rolling basis, annual traffic down 40% to 88.9m

Lots of price discounting to achieve above, Winter plan is to ground aircraft and slash capacity, take stock, and plan for recovery from Mar 21. Severe cuts planned for ROI.

Not bad results considering the anxiety out there perpetuated on travelling public, it could have been a whole lot worse.

Yeah was surprised it was so high, obviously yield is likely muck.

sparrowcar

Jack1985 wrote: »

Ryanair August results out;

Load Factor - 73% comparable to previous Winter periods in earlier Great Recession.
Pax - 7m in Aug 20 (14.9m in Aug 19) down 53% with 60% capacity in operation.
Rolling basis, annual traffic down 40% to 88.9m

Lots of price discounting to achieve above, Winter plan is to ground aircraft and slash capacity, take stock, and plan for recovery from Mar 21. Severe cuts planned for ROI.

Not bad results considering the anxiety out there perpetuated on travelling public, it could have been a whole lot worse.

Ryanair more or less single handedly kept DUB going the past 2 months. With their scale back along with other this winter will be very bleak.
March next year can't come soon enough.

smurfjed

Poster in PPRuNe stating that Emirates have reduced the number of Airbus pilots from 1800 to 800.

Oman Air have released all expatriate pilots.

Vietnam Airways offering new contracts paying $400 for up to 25 hours and $25 per hour after that. (That’s not a misprint.)

Growler!!!

smurfjed wrote: »

Poster in PPRuNe stating that Emirates have reduced the number of Airbus pilots from 1800 to 800.

Operational aircraft numbers speak volumes of the flight deck losses. Figures from Sir Tim.

123 out of 155 B777's operating.
6 (Yes only 6) out of 115 A380's operating.

Locker10a

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-norwegian-air-results/norwegian-air-aims-to-secure-more-cash-this-year-as-losses-balloon-idUSKBN25O0HZ

"Norwegian Air aims to secure more cash this year as losses balloon"

Gael23

Should Ryanair’s threat to leave Ireland during the winter be taken seriously?

davebuck

Gael23 wrote: »

Should Ryanair’s threat to leave Ireland during the winter be taken seriously?

I would think the DAA would be very concerned by this.... lets face it Ryanair are flying the most at Dublin by a considerable amount.

California Dreamer

Gael23 wrote: »

Should Ryanair’s threat to leave Ireland during the winter be taken seriously?

Oh that old threat. Its a yearly thing in an effort to get a better deal.

Chris_5339762

Even if the unthinkable happened and they went completely, they'll be back with bells on once restrictions are relaxed. Where theres money to be made.

Gael23

Once travel restrictions are lifted, do we think air travel will quite rapidly get back to normal or will there be a reluctance to fly for a time after?

L1011

Gael23 wrote: »

Once travel restrictions are lifted, do we think air travel will quite rapidly get back to normal or will there be a reluctance to fly for a time after?

There'll be reluctance and on the other end there'll be pent up demand for leisure travel from those that aren't reluctant.

Business travel is going to take a lot longer

Gael23

L1011 wrote: »

There'll be reluctance and on the other end there'll be pent up demand for leisure travel from those that aren't reluctant.

Business travel is going to take a lot longer

That pent up demand depends on airlines strategy: low fares to entice people on board or hike up prices to make up for lost time

Locker10a

L1011 wrote: »

There'll be reluctance and on the other end there'll be pent up demand for leisure travel from those that aren't reluctant.

Business travel is going to take a lot longer

I know this will be dismissed as rubbish among older people but honestly, among younger people there’s a genuine fear of shame with going on holidays at the moment, and this will last until the virus is no longer mainstream news.
I frequently hear friends say “I really miss planning trips etc, but you couldn’t be seen to be going now”
I know one friend who booked a trip to Greece, a green list country, and other mates say things like “I wonder will he go, god you couldn’t put anything about it on Facebook or Instagram”
In Ireland for the next 6-12 months, once’s there’s still cases of the virus, people won’t travel or if they do so it will be their shameful secret.
This isn’t my opinion it’s what I see/feel among peers, and it’s a reflection of attitudes to travel right now. It’s NOT Instagram trendy to go on holidays right now, quite the opposite...

duskyjoe

Locker fully agree with you. Mid 30s people are also driving the crusade to rid the streets or cars irrespective of the consequences. I agree shame if u travel irrespective green /red

cson

duskyjoe wrote: »

Locker fully agree with you. Mid 30s people are also driving the crusade to rid the streets or cars irrespective of the consequences. I agree shame if u travel irrespective green /red

This is an excellent thing, there is virtually no downside to pushing a reduction in car usage (particularly single occupant) in cities provided we invest in public transport and pivot toward cycling.

PommieBast

Gael23 wrote: »

Once travel restrictions are lifted, do we think air travel will quite rapidly get back to normal or will there be a reluctance to fly for a time after?

Think real question is logistics. Might take 3-6 months for people to get used to fear-free flying, but reversing the cuts in capacity might be more like 1-2 years.


I would like to spend xmas 2021 in New Zealand but I think that is towards the optimistic end of a recovery in aviation.

AnRothar

PommieBast wrote: »

Think real question is logistics. Might take 3-6 months for people to get used to fear-free flying, but reversing the cuts in capacity might be more like 1-2 years.


I would like to spend xmas 2021 in New Zealand but I think that is towards the optimistic end of a recovery in aviation.

Lots of random information on this thread but most of the rest is a mix of conjecture and speculation.
Some informed but most is not.

No one knows what things will be like in 6 months not to mention 18.
Most posters here think they "know" and some will be proven right.
Those whose postulates turn out to be correct will proclaim this from the rooftops when the time comes.
Those who were wrong will simply say nothing.

You want to go to New Zealand next Christmas then start planning accordingly.

That is my conjecture and speculation.

W1ll1s

Looks like the pandemic is making it financially impossible for Air Canada to continue to offer flights to remote communities who rely on them to a large extent...

https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/266292928/cities-across-canada-devastated-by-airline-reduction-in-flights

California Dreamer

Another grab for Stobart Air perhaps?

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/cityjet-owner-falko-in-talks-to-acquire-stobart-air-39502051.html

Doylers

W1ll1s wrote: »

Looks like the pandemic is making it financially impossible for Air Canada to continue to offer flights to remote communities who rely on them to a large extent...

https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/266292928/cities-across-canada-devastated-by-airline-reduction-in-flights

Interesting the article did say they should have incentives to help break the AC monopoly. Maybe a little self inflicted by making it so hard for low cost carries to enter ?

Deatr

Don’t think it’s so much as a grab, looks like Stobart want to get rid of their Aviation arm. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them try offload SEN soon as well. It makes more sense anyway having one large Irish regional/wet lease operator

MadYaker

L1011 wrote: »

There'll be reluctance and on the other end there'll be pent up demand for leisure travel from those that aren't reluctant.

Business travel is going to take a lot longer

Business travel will never return to what it was. At least 50% of the trips happening were not necessary and companies are realising this now, certainly the one I work for anyway. There will still be some things that require meetings in person but it'll never go back to the way it was. A good thing imo.

Dublinflyer

MadYaker wrote: »

Business travel will never return to what it was. At least 50% of the trips happening were not necessary and companies are realising this now, certainly the one I work for anyway. There will still be some things that require meetings in person but it'll never go back to the way it was. A good thing imo.

Yep you are 100% right here, I will miss the air miles though. :P

snotboogie

MadYaker wrote: »

Business travel will never return to what it was. At least 50% of the trips happening were not necessary and companies are realising this now, certainly the one I work for anyway. There will still be some things that require meetings in person but it'll never go back to the way it was. A good thing imo.

I still think we will see a democratization of business travel, at least in large MNC's, as a more remote workforce will still need to meet up periodically. The days of directors travelling twice a week are gone but I think we will see the IC who would have traveled once every two years travelling 4 to 6 times a year, as in person meetings will focus on specific tasks like projects, training and team building.

TRANQUILLO

Dublinflyer wrote: »

Yep you are 100% right here, I will miss the air miles though. :P

Its such a shame. I chose my jobs based on travel. I loved it. staying in the same place all the time is boring.

L1011

snotboogie wrote: »

I still think we will see a democratization of business travel, at least in large MNC's, as a more remote workforce will still need to meet up periodically. The days of directors travelling twice a week are gone but I think we will see the IC who would have traveled once every two years travelling 4 to 6 times a year, as in person meetings will focus on specific tasks like projects, training and team building.

This is exceptionally likely - and was already happening in more decentralised workplaces

Company I worked for previously used to fly staff based abroad to Dublin for two events a year (Christmas party and a financial year kick-off dinner/awards); as well as team meet-ups at other times. Irish based staff didn't fly except to the odd trade show* but if you were in Poland or Portugal like a decent amount of staff were you came to Dublin maybe 4 times a year minimum.

*unless a specific client needed and paid for it. Trips to an awful town in New Jersey were a common penance on my team!

smurfjed

Self-sponsored Eclipse EA500 First Officers required for our client in Europe. You will be required to pay for the training.

Cost of the training is £35,000 EUR. This includes type training, Upset Prevention and Recovery Training and mentorship on the line for 30 hours.

35,000 for an ECLIPSE :(

AlekSmart

Gael23 wrote: »

Once travel restrictions are lifted, do we think air travel will quite rapidly get back to normal or will there be a reluctance to fly for a time after?

I feel that if sanity returns to the World,and somewhat saner counsel prevails,it will be the Ryanair's of the industry who will lead the charge skywards.

As the Covid-19 industry rolls onwards,it is threatening to forcefully suppress ALL questioning of,or reluctance to comply with whatever the latest CV-19 requirement is.

The,by now well publicised,example of Australia's full-on abandonment of sanity in relation to a largely innocious Facebook post very forcibly underlines how the collateral damage inflicted by Authorities far exceeds the actual Virus related thread,and by some margin.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-54007824

What is worth debating,discussing and reasonably arguing whether we are seeing a resurgence of Puritanism (?) in relation to travel as a concept,particularly if it is deemed (by some) as 'unnecessary'.

It is a basic element of humanity to travel,and explore our planet and beyond,yet we now see substantial emergence of a view that wishes to reintroduce parochiality (a very popular Irish trait ?) and impose that view under the guise of concerns regarding public health and protecting humanity.

The Corona thing has a bit further to go yet,but at some point I feel there will have to be a Choice made as to whether Humanity selects reverse gear and parks itself up for several generations,or whether it exhibits a sense of bravery and curiosity and gets back up on the bike ?

It's all to play for.