Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

MrMusician18

Jack1985 wrote: »

So, what we just do absolutely zero here? Not even make remote attempts to test, track and trace?? The fact is this testing will reduce exposure to citizens, the vast majority of countries are doing this.

We can't handle the mild pressure on the system at the moment and after 6 months it’s disgraceful. I refuse to believe for a remote second Ireland knows best when it is demonstrated each bloody week we are led by utter incompetence.

This Government has continued at every juncture excluding of course Meat Plants and Direct Provision to look for scapegoats that being Travel and Pubs (Pubs which would have allowed controlled environments, instead people have massive parties as a consequence). They have done this at each and every corner and this piss poor leadership is seeing them lose the support of the people, is it any bit surprising where we are after months of talking about exactly this incompetence.

Doing tests that are known to have poor reliability (50% false negatives) is just window dressing. Other countries are not immune to the political pressure of 'being seen to be doing something'.

EchoIndia

Jack1985 wrote: »

So, what we just do absolutely zero here? Not even make remote attempts to test, track and trace?? The fact is this testing will reduce exposure to citizens, the vast majority of countries are doing this.

We can't handle the mild pressure on the system at the moment and after 6 months it’s disgraceful. I refuse to believe for a remote second Ireland knows best when it is demonstrated each bloody week we are led by utter incompetence.

This Government has continued at every juncture excluding of course Meat Plants and Direct Provision to look for scapegoats that being Travel and Pubs (Pubs which would have allowed controlled environments, instead people have massive parties as a consequence). They have done this at each and every corner and this piss poor leadership is seeing them lose the support of the people, is it any bit surprising where we are after months of talking about exactly this incompetence.

Would you be prepared to take the actual decisions and publicly defend them whatever the consequences, as opposed to posting anonymous messages on-line?

Jack1985

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Doing tests that are known to have poor reliability (50% false negatives) is just window dressing. Other countries are not immune to the political pressure of 'being seen to be doing something'.

I accept there is a chance of false positives, I have experienced false positives in testing (not related to COVID) before. With this virus we have an incubation period of up to 14 days and they are essentially a snapshot in time of any given moment within that period.

However, it can't be on that basis that we do none at all because there's a chance of false positives, there is also a chance of finding positives and doing something about it. That's better than what greets people arriving into Dublin which is a quick chat at passport control and off you go.

EchoIndia wrote: »

Would you be prepared to take the actual decisions and publicly defend them whatever the consequences…

Hang on, and what are consequences at the moment we are dealing with?

Who's taking responsibility for these?
Who's deflecting and seeking scapegoats?
Has there been increase in ICU Nurse recruitment and/or training and ICU Capacity?
Has there been a proper school return plan without all the ridiculous holes in it that has parents up to high doh this week?

Despite the most confusing presser in living memory in this country on Wednesday we are actually told ‘There is no confusion’

We have had this virus and experienced as a result a severe lockdown between March and into June. It is not good enough where we stand at the moment to flog it off on scapegoats and still seek to do nothing proactive i.e. no testing at airports, instead a form filling exercise that isn't followed up thoroughly. It’s clear our health system is designed to operate with zero slack, it has been from the get go and the Gov seem intent on teetering around that, we had an opportunity to begin investment (of which is overdue) and squandered that time.

What is infuriating people is we have no real plan, are we going for a COVID-Zero approach or are we going with living with the virus. This is driving experts in epidemiology crackers never mind me.

EchoIndia wrote: »

.. as opposed to posting anonymous messages on-line?

We live in a functioning democracy; I'm as entitled to post about Government as you are. They are elected by the people and open to scrutiny the last time I checked.

MoeJay

What is obvious now is that the Government have thrown all the eggs in the proverbial basket in to make sure the schools reopen, everything else be damned.

In relation to testing etc, if it was a pure public health issue, there would be no discussion about who is paying for it, there would be an aggressive testing regime at a large scale nationwide and I include all ports and airports as part of that regime. It would be paid for by the government as a public health measure.

We will always be behind the ball if we wait for clusters etc to arise. We will never have the knowledge as to the prevalence within this country and the method of transmission without putting in a proper test and trace regime.

This is not about allowing airline X to sell more tickets, it is driven by the necessity that the economy has to function and without a proper test regime we will find ourselves going 2 steps forward and 1 back again and again.

There is an economic crisis developing. The so called “stimulus” package does not feature the words airport, airline or aviation. This in an island economy, it is unbelievable....it’s like there isn’t an aviation industry here at all. Somebody has to defend that decision but there is silence. There are those whose job it is to be accountable but they’re not here on this board...!

LiamaDelta

Blut2 wrote: »

Thats...not remotely medically accurate. Do you think physiotherapists and psychologists are carrying out covid tests? Administering covid tests isn't a complex medical procedure, specialized staff are hired and trained to do it very quickly. No country is pulling senior doctors from their area of expertise to do a very quick, very basic task. And the testing isn't for the benefit of the tourist from Texas, its to prevent said tourist from spreading the virus to Irish people while they're in Ireland.

Yep they are, that's how we got to that 'capacity'. Staff that are in other parts of the public service have been trained in swabbing and contact tracing. Psychologists, OT's physios as well as many other staff are all used to provide the 'capacity' that you speak of. Obviously senior doctors wouldn't be, not that i said they were. Don't forget we had testing centres set up by the army to provide capacity. I know of a bunch of allied health professionals that had to drop their work recently to respond to a potential cluster locally.
I understand where the benefits lie, but for me, at this point, given the cost I think it's better to focus the resources on public health and I support the restrictions as they are because they are a more effective way of managing the virus, particularly when we have an open border with another jurisdiction.
Many thanks for the info on other countries, must have a look at how they've managed it.

Tenger

Lets try to focus on the impact upon aviation of this pandemic.
Very easy to get distracted and argue shades of grey regarding the medical side of things. Let’s leave that conversation for other fora

LiamaDelta

LiamaDelta wrote: »

I understand where the benefits lie, but for me, at this point, given the cost I think it's better to focus the resources on public health and I support the restrictions as they are because they are a more effective way of managing the virus, particularly when we have an open border with another jurisdiction.
Many thanks for the info on other countries, must have a look at how they've managed it.

That is unadulterated waffle grounded in nothing other than your gut feeling.

TPMP

Would anyone know roughly how long the wait is to receive an Aer Lingus voucher? I took the voucher option about 2 months ago but haven't received it yet. Is this wait normal?

Qprmeath

TPMP wrote: »

Would anyone know roughly how long the wait is to receive an Aer Lingus voucher? I took the voucher option about 2 months ago but haven't received it yet. Is this wait normal?

Over 5 months waiting

TPMP

Qprmeath wrote: »

Over 5 months waiting

Thanks. At least I know it's not just me.

Jack1985

The Government has published a report on the impact of Coronavirus on Aviation in Ireland which contains well founded facts discussed here previously, namely;

• 140,000 jobs directly affected with an additional up to 105,000 jobs supported by it.
• Ireland is amongst the group of worst affected countries across the European aviation network and has seen a larger decline than the average across Europe.
• That the prolonged disruption to Ireland's air connectivity with the rest of the world could impact on our competitiveness in the sector due to uncertainty around the robustness of our supply chain and the impact on air cargo costs.
• FDI could be affected by the above.
• That unaided airlines and firms will go out of business; referring to aid and shareholding purchases taken by other EU countries and other jurisdictions.

https://dbei.gov.ie/en/Publications/Publication-files/Focus-on-Aerospace-and-Aviation-2020.pdf

JCX BXC

Stating the obvious in other words.

More than 6 months since Coronavirus arrived in Ireland and the economic decimation continues. Aviation will really struggle to recover in this country and it's seeming more and more like we'll lose our foothold in the world.

Hubertj

JCX BXC wrote: »

Stating the obvious in other words.

More than 6 months since Coronavirus arrived in Ireland and the economic decimation continues. Aviation will really struggle to recover in this country and it's seeming more and more like we'll lose our foothold in the world.

Yep, I don’t think it is down to government or their policy. The public servants making these decisions and recommendation are to blame. They are clearly not up to the task. Shameful really.

AnRothar

Hubertj wrote: »

Yep, I don’t think it is down to government or their policy. The public servants making these decisions and recommendation are to blame. They are clearly not up to the task. Shameful really.

It is down to government policy.

They correctly have prioritised saving lives.

Now the difficulty arises.
Contrary to popular belief in certain quarters state finances are NOT a bottomless pit.

Running the health services, COVID payments, stimulus packages, support funding etc all require cold hard cash.

The economy is lumbering along but not at a level which will sustain the outgoings.

Transport is only part of the picture.
Retail is a key component, often over looked especially by elements of the current "online" generation ".
They average wage in retail tends to be low. Often there is just a few full timers with the vast majority in transit or students.
But physical shops pay rates and other "contributions" to the local economy.

While transport in general and aviation in particular are in trouble they are a component of the economy.
Not the be all and end all.

sailing

AnRothar wrote: »

It is down to government policy.

They correctly have prioritised saving lives.

Now the difficulty arises.
Contrary to popular belief in certain quarters state finances are NOT a bottomless pit.



Running the health services, COVID payments, stimulus packages, support funding etc all require cold hard cash.

The economy is lumbering along but not at a level which will sustain the outgoings.

Transport is only part of the picture.
Retail is a key component, often over looked especially by elements of the current "online" generation ".
They average wage in retail tends to be low. Often there is just a few full timers with the vast majority in transit or students.
But physical shops pay rates and other "contributions" to the local economy.

While transport in general and aviation in particular are in trouble they are a component of the economy.
Not the be all and end all.

Except, Travel has only accounted for 2-3% of all cases in the country yet has taken one of the largest hits from Government policy.

This same Government have failed to implement their own Independent Aviation recovery task force report findings.


They are ignoring advice from the EU, ECDC and EASA.

This is an Economy which is highly dependent on International transport and transport links. The Government have their heads in the sand.

AnRothar

sailing wrote: »

Except, Travel has only accounted for 2-3% of all cases in the country yet has taken one of the largest hits from Government policy.

Before they shut it down.

Remember the focus is on prevention, so by preventing possible sources they are doing it correctly.

wrote:

This same Government have failed to implement their own Independent Aviation recovery task force report findings.

They are not the first government and will not be the last to ignore a report.

They are ignoring advice from the EU, ECDC and EASA.

Selective application of advice as it pertains in an Irish context.

wrote:

This is an Economy which is highly dependent on International transport and transport links. The Government have their heads in the sand.

Ships and ferries still working.
Yes there are difficulties, and aviation has been affected (tourism is also massively affected) but we are not "cut off".

WishUWereHere

MoeJay wrote: »

What is obvious now is that the Government have thrown all the eggs in the proverbial basket in to make sure the schools reopen, everything else be damned.

In relation to testing etc, if it was a pure public health issue, there would be no discussion about who is paying for it, there would be an aggressive testing regime at a large scale nationwide and I include all ports and airports as part of that regime. It would be paid for by the government as a public health measure.

We will always be behind the ball if we wait for clusters etc to arise. We will never have the knowledge as to the prevalence within this country and the method of transmission without putting in a proper test and trace regime.

This is not about allowing airline X to sell more tickets, it is driven by the necessity that the economy has to function and without a proper test regime we will find ourselves going 2 steps forward and 1 back again and again.

There is an economic crisis developing. The so called “stimulus” package does not feature the words airport, airline or aviation. This in an island economy, it is unbelievable....it’s like there isn’t an aviation industry here at all. Somebody has to defend that decision but there is silence. There are those whose job it is to be accountable but they’re not here on this board...!

I think after all the recent negative publicity attached to the current government, they MUST get the 'back-to-schools- right first time, though how they do it is a complete head scratcher. My Daughter goes to a school here in Kildare. She has to get a 30 seater bus which is packed ( or was back in March ) by the time it left Newbridge. I still cannot work out how there can possibly be social distancing if this scenario continues.

But apologies, I digress from aviation.

lintdrummer

I've read a lot of posts from people with the binary view that "The severe policy and restrictions on air travel saves lives, therefore it is correct".
It is not correct, because it is not the only option.
The only reason the current policy potentially saves lives is because of our failure to implement a proper testing and quarantine procedure at our airports. We have been allowing airlines to bring people here from anywhere in the world and we allow them to go out in the community in the good faith that they will self isolate.
There are thousands of lives negatively affected by current policy, thousands of people facing huge uncertainty and bleak futures. The industry is being decimated here, more severely than almost anywhere else.
I'd just like anybody who's coming to this forum arguing that the restrictions are unpalatable but necessary to think; it's been 6 months. Why have the initial knee jerk policies not been replaced with something remotely sustainable? Rapid testing is available. There are better options, we should already be using them, not just talking about them.

Tenger

AnRothar wrote: »

.......
Now the difficulty arises.
Contrary to popular belief in certain quarters state finances are NOT a bottomless pit.
...........

Ecept of course for the historical low interest rites currently up for grabs. The Govt could easily get 30 yer bond of 500m to cover the tourism/travel industry.

PommieBast

Hubertj wrote: »

Yep, I don’t think it is down to government or their policy. The public servants making these decisions and recommendation are to blame. They are clearly not up to the task. Shameful really.

A lot of the civil service seems to have simply shut down. In the case of INIS it looks like no-one has actually gone into the office since mid-March.



The passenger location system is also still a joke. They had one small table with the forms on it and I only found it after the GNIB officer pointed it out to me. If it is actually important they should have been handed out on the plane.

HTCOne

Testing is still a major issue. Buddy of mine was tested Weds evening, didn’t get a result til Saturday morning (negative). He wasn’t able to go to work while waiting for his result. His employer had to cover the shortfall with paid overtime. We’re doomed if this is what to expect for the winter, when colds and flus will add to the number of people with COVID like symptoms needing tests.

I’m convinced it is lack of capacity that is preventing airport testing. Catching asymptomatic positive cases anywhere pays for itself.

goingnowhere

Aer Lingus hand them out onboard, but that seems to be based on Aer Lingus running the photocopier in Shamrock House, there doesn't seem to be a official government printed version available

The form itself is stupid. It lacks the basic question, 'List all countries visited in last 14 days', this is a common question asked by many countries long before COVID. It doesn't even ask for the flight number

Everyone else manages with a much smaller piece of paper

davebuck

HTCOne wrote: »

Testing is still a major issue. Buddy of mine was tested Weds evening, didn’t get a result til Saturday morning (negative). He wasn’t able to go to work while waiting for his result. His employer had to cover the shortfall with paid overtime. We’re doomed if this is what to expect for the winter, when colds and flus will add to the number of people with COVID like symptoms needing tests.

I’m convinced it is lack of capacity that is preventing airport testing. Catching asymptomatic positive cases anywhere pays foritself.

Here is the major problem testing is still taking too long over 6 months into the pandemic and our health system still can't turn around test results in under 24 hrs,more like 4/5 days. Why is this still the case?

L1011

davebuck wrote: »

Here is the major problem testing is still taking too long over 6 months into the pandemic and our health system still can't turn around test results in under 24 hrs,more like 4/5 days. Why is this still the case?

Currently its ~2 days for non priority cases and <12 hours for priority cases; not 4/5 days. Although they can be quite poor at identifying priority cases, and being tested at an out-station site will add transit delays for samples

Jack1985

AnRothar wrote: »

Before they shut it down.

Incorrect. It has maintained 2% of infection rates. Deputy CMO confirmed this last Friday.

goingnowhere wrote: »

Aer Lingus hand them out onboard, but that seems to be based on Aer Lingus running the photocopier in Shamrock House, there doesn't seem to be a official government printed version available

They give them at check-in. There's nobody handing them out on board, they aren't required to do so.

davebuck

L1011 wrote: »

Currently its ~2 days for non priority cases and <12 hours for priority cases; not 4/5 days. Although they can be quite poor at identifying priority cases, and being tested at an out-station site will add transit delays for samples

Had a relation waiting just over 5 days in the last week despite calls to the HSE and GP

HTCOne

davebuck wrote: »

Had a relation waiting just over 5 days in the last week despite calls to the HSE and GP

What they're saying is happening and what is actually happening seem very far apart.

PommieBast

Jack1985 wrote: »

They give them at check-in. There's nobody handing them out on board, they aren't required to do so.

They certainly weren't giving them out at Heathrow checkin when I flew back last week.

Jack1985

PommieBast wrote: »

They certainly weren't giving them out at Heathrow checkin when I flew back last week.

They should be!

Tenger

Jack1985 wrote: »

They should be!

Which is why the crew have a handful onboard to hand out to those who didn’t get them or lost them. My missus has a stack of about 25-30 in her bag.