Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Noxegon

HTCOne wrote: »

I can see Ireland failing to take part in any scheme allowing unrestricted travel for those fully vaccinated for a few months yet, only because those who’ll be waiting til Q3 for their second dose would likely go ballistic.

Based on what's being reported today it's beginning to look like those under the age of 50 are looking at Q3 for their first dose. If it's AstraZeneca, then they're looking at Q4 before they're fully vaccinated. These people will have little choice but to holiday in Ireland.

If we open up to tourists from abroad, it's going to send the demand for hotels and accommodation skyrocketing – even as a large portion of our own population remains unable to travel.

If I was a politician thinking about reelection this would be at the forefront of my mind.

Chris_5339762

Noxegon wrote: »

Based on what's being reported today it's beginning to look like those under the age of 50 are looking at Q3 for their first dose. If it's AstraZeneca, then they're looking at Q4 before they're fully vaccinated. These people will have little choice but to holiday in Ireland.

If we open up to tourists from abroad, it's going to send the demand for hotels and accommodation skyrocketing – even as a large portion of our own population remains unable to travel.

If I was a politician thinking about reelection this would be at the forefront of my mind.

Nah, we'll be June/July for a first dose for everyone who wants it I still think. Dose 2 will be later for AZs than Pfizers sure. But we'll be done by Q3.

Noxegon

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

Nah, we'll be June/July for a first dose for everyone who wants it I still think. Dose 2 will be later for AZs than Pfizers sure. But we'll be done by Q3.

I admire your optimism – but I'd point out anyone receiving AstraZeneca in the first week of July (which is Q3) won't get their second until the end of September.

Blut2

Noxegon wrote: »

Based on what's being reported today it's beginning to look like those under the age of 50 are looking at Q3 for their first dose. If it's AstraZeneca, then they're looking at Q4 before they're fully vaccinated. These people will have little choice but to holiday in Ireland.

If we open up to tourists from abroad, it's going to send the demand for hotels and accommodation skyrocketing – even as a large portion of our own population remains unable to travel.

If I was a politician thinking about reelection this would be at the forefront of my mind.

Unvaccinated people under 50 will still be fully able to holiday in the EU (with the green/travel certificate) as long as they have evidence of covid recovery, or a negative PCR test within 72 hours of the flight.

Plenty of other countries have similar entry requirements - or even more loose - too.

Noxegon

Blut2 wrote: »

Unvaccinated people under 50 will still be fully able to holiday in the EU (with the green/travel certificate) as long as they have evidence of covid recovery, or a negative PCR test within 72 hours of the flight.

If and only if they're prepared to risk getting stranded in whatever country they happen to be in if they happen to test positive.

HTCOne

Blut2 wrote: »

Unvaccinated people under 50 will still be fully able to holiday in the EU (with the green/travel certificate) as long as they have evidence of covid recovery, or a negative PCR test within 72 hours of the flight.

Plenty of other countries have similar entry requirements - or even more loose - too.

I agree with what you say but just like last year it won’t be the outward bound restrictions that will be the issue, but the ones you face when you get home. The rest of Europe has enough excess capacity in their health services to handle the minor spikes in hospital cases among younger people that will result from opening up tourism and hospitality before full populations are vaccinated. We apparently don’t and this will be the noose around our necks in our industry this summer.

PommieBast

Noxegon wrote: »

Based on what's being reported today it's beginning to look like those under the age of 50 are looking at Q3 for their first dose. If it's AstraZeneca, then they're looking at Q4 before they're fully vaccinated. These people will have little choice but to holiday in Ireland.

I suspect a lot of people will be unable to travel due to lack of valid passports. So far all signs are the passport office remaining closed for many more months.

Cookiemunster

PommieBast wrote: »

I suspect a lot of people will be unable to travel due to lack of valid passports. So far all signs are the passport office remaining closed for many more months.

The passport office has been added to the list of essential services. It won't be closed any longer.

Cookiemunster

Noxegon wrote: »

Based on what's being reported today it's beginning to look like those under the age of 50 are looking at Q3 for their first dose. If it's AstraZeneca, then they're looking at Q4 before they're fully vaccinated. These people will have little choice but to holiday in Ireland.

If we open up to tourists from abroad, it's going to send the demand for hotels and accommodation skyrocketing – even as a large portion of our own population remains unable to travel.

If I was a politician thinking about reelection this would be at the forefront of my mind.

Whatever about the second does, I haven't seen anything to say that under 50s won't begin to get their first doses from early June. There's no shortage or restrictions on the Pfizer vaccine which is 3/4 of all the doses we're receiving in Q2.

Jacovs

PommieBast wrote: »

I suspect a lot of people will be unable to travel due to lack of valid passports. So far all signs are the passport office remaining closed for many more months.

They are open as of today. Their twitter was also updated. Aiming to have all renewals issued in May. All new applications in June. Supporting documents returned 10 working days AFTER they send your new passport. Makes no sense, should return the supporting documents first soon as they are dont with them, as in many cases this includes passports that people can use earlier.

PommieBast

Jacovs wrote: »

They are open as of today. Their twitter was also updated. Aiming to have all renewals issued in May. All new applications in June. Supporting documents returned 10 working days AFTER they send your new passport. Makes no sense, should return the supporting documents first soon as they are dont with them, as in many cases this includes passports that people can use earlier.

Nice to hear that the state is actually getting something done.

I'm guessing its how they have setup their logistics, as in most cases supporting documents means old passports that need to be cancelled before they are returned.

Jacovs

PommieBast wrote: »

Nice to hear that the state is actually getting something done.

I'm guessing its how they have setup their logistics, as in most cases supporting documents means old passports that need to be cancelled before they are returned.

As far as I am aware for simple renewals there are no supporting documents, no old passport to return and be cancelled anymore.

Far as aviation is concerned, very long road ahead. Work (worked?) in the sector myself and have been laid off since start of april last year. Little to no communication from company, happy to sit on their hands and just keep kicking the bucket down the road each time the PUP is extended. Frustrating to say the last.

bk

Noxegon wrote: »

Based on what's being reported today it's beginning to look like those under the age of 50 are looking at Q3 for their first dose. If it's AstraZeneca, then they're looking at Q4 before they're fully vaccinated. These people will have little choice but to holiday in Ireland.

Noxegon wrote: »

I admire your optimism – but I'd point out anyone receiving AstraZeneca in the first week of July (which is Q3) won't get their second until the end of September.

First of all, the AstraZeneca vaccine is only authorised for over 50's, so under 50's won't be getting it or the J&J, under 50's will be mostly getting the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines as it currently stands.

Secondly there is nothing to say that AstraZeneca has to be 12 weeks, in can be given after just 4 weeks, in fact that is mostly what they trialled.

Given the restriction on using the AstraZeneca/J&J vaccines to only those over 50's, I'd suspect most will end up getting their second dose much sooner.

Noxegon

bk wrote: »

Secondly there is nothing to say that AstraZeneca has to be 12 weeks, in can be given after just 4 weeks, in fact that is mostly what they trialled.

Straight from the HSE:

"You will need 2 doses of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine.
You should get your 2nd dose at least 12 weeks after your 1st dose.
Some people will need to wait 16 weeks before their 2nd dose."

https://www2.hse.ie/screening-and-vaccinations/covid-19-vaccine/astrazeneca/

Cookiemunster

Noxegon wrote: »

Straight from the HSE:



https://www2.hse.ie/screening-and-vaccinations/covid-19-vaccine/astrazeneca/

That's current NIAC/HSEadvice. It can be changed and lowered to 4 weeks if they so wish. It was initially trialled on a 4 week basis.

0lddog

If the above stuff is really of interest to any of you hpra.ie might be a better starting point than hse.ie.

Perhaps start at the page https://www.hpra.ie/homepage/medicines/covid-19-updates/covid-19-vaccines-product-information ?

vandriver

Cookiemunster wrote: »

The passport office has been added to the list of essential services. It won't be closed any longer.

Ordered a renewal passport on Saturday lunchtime,it arrived this morning.

billy few mates

vandriver wrote: »

Ordered a renewal passport on Saturday lunchtime,it arrived this morning.

They have my passport card renewal for two months now...

vandriver

billy few mates wrote: »

They have my passport card renewal for two months now...

Not that urgent though,as you still have the paper passport?

Phil.x

Pulled in to watch a couple of takeoffs and landings at Dublin airport with the kids, poor poor show, 3 planes in 45mins. Dam you covid.

billy few mates

vandriver wrote: »

Not that urgent though,as you still have the paper passport?

That expires in the next couple of months, I want to wait until I get the passport card back before I send that one off for renewal.

vandriver

billy few mates wrote: »

That expires in the next couple of months, I want to wait until I get the passport card back before I send that one off for renewal.

The Passport Card will match the expiry date of your Passport Book, if you have less than 5 years validity remaining.

I think you're wasting your time.

IngazZagni

billy few mates wrote: »

That expires in the next couple of months, I want to wait until I get the passport card back before I send that one off for renewal.

You don't need to send your passport in if it has less than 6 months on it. You can keep it.


Back to the topic, I see Boris will announce the green list at 5pm today. This will be for England I believe but it's likely that NI will have similar rules.

Chris_5339762

Marno over in the Cork Airport thread in the Cork forum posted the following, figured a teeny bit of good news can't hurt.

marno21 wrote: »

EI are up to 6pw on the London LHR route now

Long way to go to the 28pw of summers of old or the 33pw (I think) of summer 2018 but it’s a start.

Noxegon

In today's news, the UK's "Green List" has been revealed:

Portugal
Israel
Singapore
Australia
New Zealand
Brunei
Iceland
Gibraltar
Falkland Islands
Faroe Islands
South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands
St Helena, Tristan de Cunha, Ascension Island

Of those:

- Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand are closed to all but citizens.
- Faroe Islands have no flights that don't go via Denmark
- St Helena, Tristan da Cunha, and Ascension Island are next to impossible to get to.
- Falkland Islands are not much better.

Inquitus

Noxegon wrote: »

In today's news, the UK's "Green List" has been revealed:

Portugal
Israel
Singapore
Australia
New Zealand
Brunei
Iceland
Gibraltar
Falkland Islands
Faroe Islands
South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands
St Helena, Tristan de Cunha, Ascension Island

Of those:

- Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand are closed to all but citizens.
- Faroe Islands have no flights that don't go via Denmark
- St Helena, Tristan da Cunha, and Ascension Island are next to impossible to get to.
- Falkland Islands are not much better.

So Portugal, Brunei, Iceland and Israel. I guess that means UK folk can plan on some sun in Portugal or Israel then? or are there any rules at the other end that prevent them? and is full vaccination a requirement, or just negative PCRs? and in the case of negative PCRs are there any quarantine requirements at either/or/both ends?

Noxegon

Inquitus wrote: »

So Portugal, Brunei, Iceland and Israel. I guess that means UK folk can plan on some sun in Portugal or Israel then? or are there any rules at the other end that prevent them? and is full vaccination a requirement, or just negative PCRs? and in the case of negative PCRs are there any quarantine requirements at either/or/both ends?

Gibraltar's realistic too – direct flights from the UK – but it's not a large place and it won't take much to fill all available hotel rooms.

Chris_5339762

Two posts and no-one has made the obvious joke about how the British can go to the Falklands without any problem at all?

billy few mates

vandriver wrote: »

The Passport Card will match the expiry date of your Passport Book, if you have less than 5 years validity remaining.

I think you're wasting your time.

I didn't realise that.
They're hardly going to charge me to renew it if they're only going to give it a few months..?

Noxegon

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

Two posts and no-one has made the obvious joke about how the British can go to the Falklands without any problem at all?

There’s a twice weekly flight from Brize Norton that’s open to civilians.

WishUWereHere

Noxegon wrote: »

In today's news, the UK's "Green List" has been revealed:

Portugal
Israel
Singapore
Australia
New Zealand
Brunei
Iceland
Gibraltar
Falkland Islands
Faroe Islands
South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands
St Helena, Tristan de Cunha, Ascension Island

Of those:

- Singapore, Australia, and New Zealand are closed to all but citizens.
- Faroe Islands have no flights that don't go via Denmark
- St Helena, Tristan da Cunha, and Ascension Island are next to impossible to get to.
- Falkland Islands are not much better.

Am I being presumptuous but can't we still freely enter the UK?

TeaPot918

Over on the main Covid forum they are mentioning that the fine for non essential travel lapses tomorrow. On April 30th it had been extended 6 days from 4th to 10th of May, but no further updates.

https://www.gov.ie/en/collection/1f150-view-statutory-instruments-related-to-the-covid-19-pandemic/

Tenger

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Am I being presumptuous but can't we still freely enter the UK?

CTA still allows us to enter the UK and vice versa

Van.Bosch

Tenger wrote: »

CTA still allows us to enter the UK and vice versa

PCR needed on way back though.

HTCOne

The Taoiseach on Sunday said on RTE news after receiving his first dose of the vaccine that he expected the resumption of non-essential travel between Ireland and the EU some time between late June and early August, as we are signing up for the EU traffic light system.

The Tanaiste said yesterday that he expected resumption of non-essential travel between Ireland and Britain this summer but not to the EU or US until 2022.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/travel-restrictions-between-ireland-and-britain-should-be-lifted-during-summer-varadkar-40414555.html

Which makes me think once again that our industry is an afterthought and they have no plan whatsoever to rebuild it seeing as they completely contradicted each other in less than 24 hours.

goingnowhere

UK is happening as a recognition of the border, it is impossible to restrict travel, the UK rates are low and heading down. UK has MHQ so we are in a similar place, so basically the same as AU/NZ have done.

I would expect by July 1st we will have unrestricted travel to/from the UK, no paperwork, no tests. Thats going to be a major restart in air travel given Dublin London was the busiest international air route in the world.

I can see an insistence for PCR tests being continued for some time and a tactic to restrict and otherwise brainwash people not to travel until we hit September, i.e. schools open to restrict the number who could travel.

Aer Lingus could do well the follow Ryanair and load up on flights out of Belfast

IngazZagni

HTCOne wrote: »

The Taoiseach on Sunday said on RTE news after receiving his first dose of the vaccine that he expected the resumption of non-essential travel between Ireland and the EU some time between late June and early August, as we are signing up for the EU traffic light system.

The Tanaiste said yesterday that he expected resumption of non-essential travel between Ireland and Britain this summer but not to the EU or US until 2022.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/travel-restrictions-between-ireland-and-britain-should-be-lifted-during-summer-varadkar-40414555.html

Which makes me think once again that our industry is an afterthought and they have no plan whatsoever to rebuild it seeing as they completely contradicted each other in less than 24 hours.

I think you have misread the article. What is being said is that Ireland/Britain travel should have no restrictions. As in you shouldn't need to have a negative PCR test or be fully vaccinated.
Travel outside of this will naturally have restrictions based on the new EU green cert. You need to fulfill certain requirements and some Countries may be banned if varients appear. Full free travel with no restrictions will realistically only begin in 2022.

That's how I read it anyway and hopefully we will get the actual details of what we are signing up to by the end of the month as we've been told.

Blut2

Some promising news here:

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will urge President Joe Biden to lift US-UK flight restrictions at their first face-to-face meeting since Biden took office, unless Biden does so before then, a top British official warned U.S. diplomats.

According to a U.S. diplomatic cable obtained by the PBS NewsHour, Robert Courts, Parliament’s Under Secretary of State at the Department of Transport, requested an “urgent” meeting with the top-ranking official at the U.S. Embassy in London, chargé d’affaires Yael Lempert, on Monday.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/uk-urges-biden-to-drop-coronavirus-air-travel-restrictions

Looks like the UK is going to start to put some pressure on the US to open up finally. No reason for them not to with the UK's very low covid numbers/very high vaccination rate.

Ireland will hopefully be lumped in with the UK too given the Common Travel Area, and that we're explicitly on the UK travel ban rather than the Schengen one.

MrMusician18

Blut2 wrote: »

Some promising news here:



https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/uk-urges-biden-to-drop-coronavirus-air-travel-restrictions

Looks like the UK is going to start to put some pressure on the US to open up finally. No reason for them not to with the UK's very low covid numbers/very high vaccination rate.

Ireland will hopefully be lumped in with the UK too given the Common Travel Area, and that we're explicitly on the UK travel ban rather than the Schengen one.

The UK will do whatever the US tells them to do.

Hotblack Desiato

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The UK will do whatever the US tells them to do.

It'll be the easiest negotiation ever!

Nijmegen

Two stories today... ryanair calling for lifting of travel restrictions, and the Indian variant being detected in England. Shows the precariousness of the situation. (It’s not hard hard confirmed, but a third story pointing out that apparently fully vaccinated people are dying of the Indian variant).

https://www.thejournal.ie/flight-restrictions-ireland-5437143-May2021/

https://www.thejournal.ie/indian-variant-covid-england-5437781-May2021/

https://www.ft.com/content/5f742765-61ac-4da6-8c6f-49119cd7d46c
This link is behind a paywall
I can see us backsliding over this.

Noxegon

Meanwhile, in Ireland, the Tanaiste hammers another nail into the coffin of the airlines:

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0517/1222190-non-essential-travel-ireland/

IngazZagni

Noxegon wrote: »

Meanwhile, in Ireland, the Tanaiste hammers another nail into the coffin of the airlines:

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0517/1222190-non-essential-travel-ireland/

Not entirely unexpected. On a positive note it does mention that the common travel area with the UK could be restored very soon. As in no testing or vaccines needed to travel. That's a significant market for our airlines here.

flanzer

IngazZagni wrote: »

Not entirely unexpected. On a positive note it does mention that the common travel area with the UK could be restored very soon. As in no testing or vaccines needed to travel. That's a significant market for our airlines here.

I'd nearly go on holidays to the UK... nearly. Can see plenty of day/overnight trips. Duty Free will be a cash cow for the airports too, going forward

Inquitus

flanzer wrote: »

I'd nearly go on holidays to the UK... nearly. Can see plenty of day/overnight trips. Duty Free will be a cash cow for the airports too, going forward

Aye the UK weather is a fair bit better than ours in the Summer generally, but it also comes with no guarantees, much like Ireland!

john boye

IngazZagni wrote: »

Not entirely unexpected. On a positive note it does mention that the common travel area with the UK could be restored very soon. As in no testing or vaccines needed to travel. That's a significant market for our airlines here.

Out of interest, how soon do we think very soon will be? I have to get back going over there for a couple of days a week beginning early in June.

PommieBast

john boye wrote: »

Out of interest, how soon do we think very soon will be? I have to get back going over there for a couple of days a week beginning early in June.

I've seen 24th May mentioned with respect to travel between Northern Ireland and the CTA, and quite honestly once NI-GB travel is derestricted any direct RoI-UK restrictions are simply lost business for DUB.

DubDani

PommieBast wrote: »

I've seen 24th May mentioned with respect to travel between Northern Ireland and the CTA, and quite honestly once NI-GB travel is derestricted any direct RoI-UK restrictions are simply lost business for DUB.

Unfortunately even from the 24th on travel between NI and GB will still require pre-departure Covid tests and 2 tests when back in NI etc. So not as straight forward yet.

Irish Steve

DubDani wrote: »

Unfortunately even from the 24th on travel between NI and GB will still require pre-departure Covid tests and 2 tests when back in NI etc. So not as straight forward yet.

Where are you getting your information from?

The last time I looked, (like now to be sure) there was NO test requirement for travel from NI to UK, and no test requirement from ROI to UK. There is a PCR test requirement within 72 hours of travel before returning to ROI from UK, but there is no test requirement from UK to NI. THere is still a requirement that travel is for essential purposes only until May 24th from NI, and there is still a restriction on travel to from ROI at present, with no definite end date.

There is a recommendation, but not mandatory, to get a test before UK departure and at 2 and 8 days after arrival in NI from UK after May 24, but it can be the cheap test, it does not have to be PCR test, which is way more expensive. Self isolation for up to 10 days is also recommened.

With increasing numbers of people being fully vaccinated, I suspect that these requirements will also be changed in the next few days.

VG31

DubDani wrote: »

Unfortunately even from the 24th on travel between NI and GB will still require pre-departure Covid tests and 2 tests when back in NI etc. So not as straight forward yet.

You don't need tests travelling within the UK (or from Ireland).