Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Dublinflyer

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

Its such a shame. I chose my jobs based on travel. I loved it. staying in the same place all the time is boring.

Same for me, my job is not that interesting without the travel aspect as that’s what I enjoy

WishUWereHere

Dublinflyer wrote: »

Same for me, my job is not that interesting without the travel aspect as that’s what I enjoy

Years ago I drove refrigerated artics all over Europe, so I can sympathise with You Folks. I only hope whatever happens be in in the short or long term, Your professions aren't affected by this pandemic.

TRANQUILLO

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Years ago I drove refrigerated artics all over Europe, so I can sympathise with You Folks. I only hope whatever happens be in in the short or long term, Your professions aren't affected by this pandemic.

Im out of work with zero prospects so far..

California Dreamer

I think I might feel better if I set up a few chairs in the garden 31inches apart and invite a group of strangers to sit beside me and perhaps pay my wife stupid money for a cup of tea and a kit kat and my son can try his luck at flogging the sctrach cards while trying to figure out who was the person beside, in front or behind me that keeps farting!!!!!

Ahhh I miss flying..........

WishUWereHere

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

Im out of work with zero prospects so far..

I really don't know what to say. I can only offer You my deep comisserations.

I was with my brother last night and while chatting ( He works in Terminal 1) we both came to the conclusion that whatever the future holds, the TA traffic will never be the same. Between our inept government and their actions or lack thereof, coupled with WW leaving IAG in the near future, the TA flow we think ( note only our feeling) will be back to something like early 2,000's.

I sincerely hope our pessimism is unfounded, but.....................

Dublinflyer

WishUWereHere wrote: »

Years ago I drove refrigerated artics all over Europe, so I can sympathise with You Folks. I only hope whatever happens be in in the short or long term, Your professions aren't affected by this pandemic.

Don't get me wrong, I am not for one second complaining. I am still working and there is no sign of that changing yet so I am very thankful to be in this position. Having worked in aviation for years I am connected to a lot of people in that area on LinkedIn and it has been making for grim reading of late.

Tenzor07

Great article in the IT today about the continuing decline of Aviation in Ireland and with NPHET dictating policy the authors last line looks closer and closer to becoming reality...

Seen from the rest of the world, the Republic sits on a tiny island in the north Atlantic with fewer than five million people and one big-ish city. At first sight, if you’re not from here, you’ve little reason to come.
Aviation arguably helped pull us out of the last recession, but it may not be around to do the same with the next.
The last five months have almost wiped the industry out.
Whatever it does, the Government needs to act quickly. Otherwise when those planes do return, it might not be to fly people in, but to fly them out ... for good.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/aviation-exit-from-ireland-looks-increasingly-long-term-1.4346632

kona

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Great article in the IT today about the continuing decline of Aviation in Ireland and with NPHET dictating policy the authors last line looks closer and closer to becoming reality...



https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/aviation-exit-from-ireland-looks-increasingly-long-term-1.4346632

NPHET can **** off, the damage they are doing to.the country with their quite frankly bizarre reccomendations for both pubs, restraunts and the aviation idustry as a whole.

The numbers speak for themselves, covid19 isnt as deadly as they are making it out to be.

bk

kona wrote: »

NPHET can **** off, the damage they are doing to.the country with their quite frankly bizarre reccomendations for both pubs, restraunts and the aviation idustry as a whole.

The numbers speak for themselves, covid19 isnt as deadly as they are making it out to be.

3% mortality rate is not deadly!!!

Think of 33 friends and family and choose which one you don't mind see dying!

My neighbour saw her mum, aunt and grandmother all die of Covid19 last week.

bk

bk wrote: »

3% mortality rate.
My neighbour saw her mum, aunt and grandmother all die of Covid19 last week.

What is your source for the 3% mortality rate?
When last week? They are not reported in the daily statistics.
I receive the daily statistics press release while still under embargo.

kona

bk wrote: »

3% mortality rate is not deadly!!!

Think of 33 friends and family and choose which one you don't mind see dying!

My neighbour saw her mum, aunt and grandmother all die of Covid19 last week.

Mortality rate isnt 3%.

I also said its isnt AS deadly as we are being led to believe. Its still deadly, but so are lots of other virus.

And please dont try be so condescending, im well able to work out percentages.

L1011

General virus discussion -> Coronavirus forum.

bk

Apologies L1011, I posted before seeing your instruction, my reply deleted.

sailing

bk wrote: »

3% mortality rate is not deadly!!!

Think of 33 friends and family and choose which one you don't mind see dying!

My neighbour saw her mum, aunt and grandmother all die of Covid19 last week.

Airy fairy story!

On an aviation note, today’s article in the Irish Times is bang on the money.

bk

sailing wrote: »

Airy fairy story!

What the hell, why would I make something like this up!!!!

I couldn't dream up a more horrifying situation.

To answer haphaphap's question. My neighbour is non-Irish, all her family is in another country, so wouldn't appear in Irish numbers obviously *. All three were in ICU, they hadn't much hope for the Grandmother given her age, but the mother was improving and they planned to move her from ICU, when she had a stroke (no underlying heart issues before this).

* Not that nationality should matter, the virus certainly doesn't care, but her country does have a much higher prevalence of Covid19, as they didn't take it seriously and didn't lock down as much. Goes to show what can happen if you aren't careful to control this disease and listen to your health experts.

Apologies to the mods here, but if folks are calling into question my honesty, I believe I should be able to respond.

bobbyy gee

they have a test that takes a hour for results
so every one will get tested leaving and departing

i always get sick on long distance flights colds and flus so i would not travel without n95 mask
safety googles and full face shield and latex gloves

very few covid have temperatures
it takes 3-5 days to show anything

bk

bk wrote: »

What the hell, why would I make something like this up!!!!

I couldn't dream up a more horrifying situation.

To answer haphaphap's question. My neighbour is non-Irish, all her family is in another country, so wouldn't appear in Irish numbers obviously *. All three were in ICU, they hadn't much hope for the Grandmother given her age, but the mother was improving and they planned to move her from ICU, when she had a stroke (no underlying heart issues before this).

* Not that nationality should matter, the virus certainly doesn't care, but her country does have a much higher prevalence of Covid19, as they didn't take it seriously and didn't lock down as much. Goes to show what can happen if you aren't careful to control this disease and listen to your health experts.

Apologies to the mods here, but if folks are calling into question my honesty, I believe I should be able to respond.

and I could tell you legitimately that Typhoid fever is rampant because my co-worker was out of office for the last few weeks suffering from it. Ooops, I forgot to mention they aren't on the European continent but they were down with Typhoid..
Out of context your reports count for nothing.

bk

Deleted User wrote: »

and I could tell you legitimately that Typhoid fever is rampant because my co-worker was out of office for the last few weeks suffering from it. Ooops, I forgot to mention they aren't on the European continent but they were down with Typhoid..
Out of context your reports count for nothing.

Last I checked Typhoid is a bacterial infection spread in dirty water and not an airborne virus currently spreading and increasing in Ireland and around the entire world as part of a global pandemic.

MadYaker

Typhoid hahahahaha

L1011

Stop it.

HTCOne

I’ve been deliberately reducing my visiting of the aviation chat forums online lately. All this bad news is just depressing. Big pay cuts for us all, no end in sight and no government help or strategy for any of us. I’m luckier than many of us in that I’m still working, for now.

Seeing so many of my respected and highly skilled fellow professionals losing their incomes across our industry is utterly heartbreaking. To all of you in that boat, keep in touch with your friends and family, go for socially distanced coffees or beers with them when you can, look after yourselves, and look after those who are finding it particularly hard. I know mental health talk can be overblown, but do take care of yours and theirs, there’ll be an end to this. Keep your chins up, don’t give up hope. We’ll be back doing what we love on the other side eventually.

Edit: Forgot the latest advice in Dublin and Limerick is to reduce social contacts. That's another hideous element of this crisis; not just how huge it is for our industry, but how uniquely isolating it is. There's people who have been let go who can't get the support from their social circle they may have had during the post GFC or 9/11 layoffs. Its insidious.

MrMusician18

kona wrote: »

NPHET can **** off, the damage they are doing to.the country with their quite frankly bizarre reccomendations for both pubs, restraunts and the aviation idustry as a whole.

The numbers speak for themselves, covid19 isnt as deadly as they are making it out to be.

There is nothing really that bizarre about them really. The overarching goal of the restrictions is to reduce social contacts. The locations that are still restricted were risk assessed as the most likely to have greater social contact.

As for international travel, well I thought the reason that it not encouraged is obvious. The disease arrived here through international travel. There is absolutely no way that there disease can be brought under control if new outbreaks are constantly being seeded through international travel. Although this is the current crisis and it is awful to be suffering through it, it really is the prelude to the post covid world.

The real question i would posit is whether aviation can or will come back post covid. The pandemic has shown that the vast majority of travel (in excess of 95% really) is, ultimately, discretionary. We are also facing into a severe ramping up of environmental policy. Add into that mix a realisation at policy formation level that mass tourism is harming cities and scenic spots for residents and those crying it's unsustainable are getting louder. This it's really a remarkable about turn as tourism was long seen as sustainable development.

Taken in the round, there may be genuine reason to believe that aviation peaked in 2019, at least in the medium term? Where is it going, or has the black cloud swallowed me and have I become too pessimistic

smurfjed

Flew into Geneva two days ago, so many parked EasyJet and Swiss aircraft, and thats a relatively open country.

kona

MrMusician18 wrote: »

There is nothing really that bizarre about them really. The overarching goal of the restrictions is to reduce social contacts. The locations that are still restricted were risk assessed as the most likely to have greater social contact.

I stuck with them until they decided to instruct pubs to keep records of what people ate for 28 days. Absoloute rubbish. The whole idea that wet pubs bad and if you buy a substantial meal everything is somehow in a lower risk category, again, rubbish, these guidelines are already being flaunted and theres STILL no major rise in either deaths or ICU being overwhelmed and this has been going on since july.
They havnt bothered to update their green list, they havnt bothered to even adress the effects this will now have on the hundreds of thousands reliant on aviation, its not just people directly involved , its the knock on effect.
Im not a anti mask or a covid denier but this crowd are just providing ammunition for people to question the whole thing.
The fact that my income for the foreseeable future is in the hands of these people is more frightening than the disease.

MrMusician18

kona wrote: »

I stuck with them until they decided to instruct pubs to keep records of what people ate for 28 days. Absoloute rubbish. The whole idea that wet pubs bad and if you buy a substantial meal everything is somehow in a lower risk category, again, rubbish, these guidelines are already being flaunted and theres STILL no major rise in either deaths or ICU being overwhelmed and this has been going on since july.
They havnt bothered to update their green list, they havnt bothered to even adress the effects this will now have on the hundreds of thousands reliant on aviation, its not just people directly involved , its the knock on effect.
Im not a anti mask or a covid denier but this crowd are just providing ammunition for people to question the whole thing.
The fact that my income for the foreseeable future is in the hands of these people is more frightening than the disease.

I see someone swallowed the VFI bullshit hook, line and sinker. All retail is required to keep sales records for up to 6 years for vat reporting purposes - the regulations was that these same records should be made available for public health compliance inspection for the last 28 days. There was a tiny if indeed any effort required on behalf of the restauranteur assuming they were both vat and covid compliant.

Irish Steve

L1011 wrote: »

General virus discussion -> Coronavirus forum.

Second warning.

Pubs and restaurants are being discussed ad nauseaum in the Covid 19 Forum. This thread is for Covid issues on AVIATION.

TRANQUILLO

HTCOne wrote: »

I’ve been deliberately reducing my visiting of the aviation chat forums online lately. All this bad news is just depressing. Big pay cuts for us all, no end in sight and no government help or strategy for any of us. I’m luckier than many of us in that I’m still working, for now.

Seeing so many of my respected and highly skilled fellow professionals losing their incomes across our industry is utterly heartbreaking. To all of you in that boat, keep in touch with your friends and family, go for socially distanced coffees or beers with them when you can, look after yourselves, and look after those who are finding it particularly hard. I know mental health talk can be overblown, but do take care of yours and theirs, there’ll be an end to this. Keep your chins up, don’t give up hope. We’ll be back doing what we love on the other side eventually.

Edit: Forgot the latest advice in Dublin and Limerick is to reduce social contacts. That's another hideous element of this crisis; not just how huge it is for our industry, but how uniquely isolating it is. There's people who have been let go who can't get the support from their social circle they may have had during the post GFC or 9/11 layoffs. Its insidious.

To add to your post, what is intangible for the government and the public is that a lot of us get into this industry out of a childhood love or awe of aviation. Its a vocation, not just a career. Its why forums like this, pprune and airliners.net exist

You don't see accountants or plasterers or quantity surveyors discussing their craft in the way that we do. At every Christmas dinner or family gathering everyone wants to take to the aeroplane guy.

I personally (and happily) pumped 1000's of euros into my qualifications over the years and now with nowhere to emigrate to and an erosion of T's and C"s worldwide I fear that the "career" has become untenable. But its in my blood. I don't want to work anywhere else. I was really happy . The thoughts of doing a degree in software or finance etc to make equivalent money somewhere else is filling me with dread.

I wouldn't recommend this industry to young people (i had that opinion pre covid). The glamour and glory days are well over and it has been a race to the bottom for a long time.

Aer Lingus was the best job in Ireland in the 70's and 80's. Good gigs with security of tenure are few and far between now from airlines going bust , to being hired as self employed contractors as pilots to companies like SRT laying off 1100 people in 09 at the stroke of a pen.

TRANQUILLO

kona wrote: »

I stuck with them until they decided to instruct pubs to keep records of what people ate for 28 days. Absoloute rubbish. The whole idea that wet pubs bad and if you buy a substantial meal everything is somehow in a lower risk category, again, rubbish, these guidelines are already being flaunted and theres STILL no major rise in either deaths or ICU being overwhelmed and this has been going on since july.
They havnt bothered to update their green list, they havnt bothered to even adress the effects this will now have on the hundreds of thousands reliant on aviation, its not just people directly involved , its the knock on effect.
Im not a anti mask or a covid denier but this crowd are just providing ammunition for people to question the whole thing.
The fact that my income for the foreseeable future is in the hands of these people is more frightening than the disease.

Says a lot about the government that we are a global leasing hub due to our attractive (contentious) corporate tax rate and capetown convention membership while at the same time shafting the grease monkeys and trolley dollies who actually put their shoulder to the wheel on the aircraft.

Certain stratas of society always get looked after...

TRANQUILLO

bk wrote: »

3% mortality rate is not deadly!!!

Think of 33 friends and family and choose which one you don't mind see dying!

My neighbour saw her mum, aunt and grandmother all die of Covid19 last week.

3% . Thats not correct by a wide margin.

cson

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

Says a lot about the government that we are a global leasing hub due to our attractive (contentious) corporate tax rate and capetown convention membership while at the same time shafting the grease monkeys and trolley dollies who actually put their shoulder to the wheel on the aircraft.

Certain stratas of society always get looked after...

It's largely because of Tony Ryan and GPA that Ireland is a leasing hub, favorable tax and legal structure environment help accepted.

Fwiw I agree with most of the takes in the WSJ here https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-travel-will-look-like-after-coronavirus-11596026858. EI are more geared towards the leisure market so should theoretically bounce back faster, particularly with the A321neo fleet looking like it'll be the aircraft du jour in the short term. The spanner in the works is North America remaining closed to Europe. That continuing is the biggest threat to EI.