Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

d51984

The current Coronavirus epidemic seems to be getting worse by the day, just wondering what complications if any may happen in the not to distant future.

Can we start taking peoples temperatures on arrival in to the country? Open up isolation centers in major cities? Will Aer Lingus and Ryanair start suspending flights, mainly to Italy so far?

This thing is going to get worse,and now its not a question of weather it arrives in Ireland but a matter of how long until it arrives.

Thoughts?

Tenger

It’s actually “getting” better in the initial origin zone. Daily increases in new cases are falling in China. There are over 20k patients recovered. (Out of 78K confirmed cases in China)

The problem is with people who may have been exposed but aren't taking precautions. This is the most probable cause of the Italian outbreak.
The Sth Korean epicentre revolves around a large church community, think side by side in mass, shaking hands, eating together.

Airlines had procedures in place for SARS, Swineflu and Foot and Mouth. I’m guessing they will have procedures in place now.

Board Walker

I'm in Luxembourg next week but after that Shell has banned our travel. Only domestic travel or car driving in europe. No Flights or trains.

martinsvi

banning a flight to a specific region is not effective - people still need to travel and they will find a way to get going. Globally speaking, you are better off getting people from A to B as quickly as possible, rather making them jump hoops and loops just to get to their destination - less exposure to other people.

Same thing with taking temperature - costs a lot, return for value quite small due to nature of the virus and people taking drugs to push the temperature down. People who care about their health and those around them will self report to medics. People who don't care of either will find a way to sneak by.

it is likely that virus is already in Ireland, it's just that symptoms might be mild enough for people carrying on with their lives without realizing they are sick. Another problem is the hysteria in Teneriffe - with all the lock downs and everything, I honestly believe people are more likely to hide the issue out of fear of overreaction

smurfjed

Saudi Arabia has banned all Umrah religious travel, and issued severe restrictions on a lot of countries. As their holy cities are a gathering place for multiple nationalities, this a serious attempt to stop the spread.

Now will the vatican do the same.

Locker10a

I think it will pass in a few months and be forgotten about by mid summer

d51984

I hope your right, and hopefully Chinese airlines mostly affected by this can survive, however I still feel things will get worse before they get better. St Patricks day festival will be the one to watch now.

Locker10a

d51984 wrote: »

I hope your right, and hopefully Chinese airlines mostly affected by this can survive, however I still feel things will get worse before they get better. St Patricks day festival will be the one to watch now.

Possibly but I feel it’s mostly hysteria by the media (what’s new)

Tenger

It certainly has the potential to be extremely serious.
I dont think it’s hysteria by the media, but I do feel the media should be doing more to highlight the precautions needed to lower transmission (hand washing, cough/sneeze etiquette, personal contact)

I honestly think scaling back St.Patricks events in cities is needed.
The Haji is already a source of mass transfer/infection (as are concerts and conferences) For the Saudis to be considering halting it is a sign of how serious it is.

The biggest issue is not the virus itself (as it has a 2% CFR) but the strain on health infrastructure. The need for testing suspected cases, isolating patients, protecting medics, preventing spread is a harder task than actually treating the virus.
The first human tests on a possible vaccine are happening in April.
Realistically you aren’t going to see a viable vaccine available before Xmas.

I don’t go so far as to think that air travel should be stopped but the airports and airlines will need to be on top of their procedures. And Govt should be advising no travel unless necessary (granted that has a wide catchment!)

Caranica

Has there been any reported cases where the person picked up the virus on a plane. We have heard a lot about cruise ships but I don't remember hearing anything about in flight infection, which is fascinating given the confined space on an aircraft, even an A380.

Popeleo

d51984 wrote: »

I hope your right, and hopefully Chinese airlines mostly affected by this can survive.....

There was an article in the Indo last week about the Hainan Airlines group possibly being nationalised and broken up - they were already in bad financial shape before all this - which would make all the large mainland Chinese airlines state-controlled, so they will all be fine.

Over there, I would be more worried about Hong Kong-based airlines. Over this side of the world, it will be interesting to see how much money the European long-haul carriers are losing over this - I seem to remember reading that AF/KLM made 14% of their revenue on flights to mainland China but all their flights to there are grounded from early February until the end of March at the earliest. Hopefully they all survive if it continues much longer.

martinsvi

Lufthansa is also being very pessimistic:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/lufthansa-makes-cuts-to-brace-for-coronavirus-2020-02-26

smurfjed

Has there been any reported cases where the person picked up the virus on a plane

One Korean FA caught the virus on a Tel Aviv flight and then flew on at least 4 long haul flights,

TomSweeney

How are Norwegian looking ?
They have been on the edge for years now, but haven't they got some bond deal to kick the problem down the road for a year or so more - but this virus could break them .... hope not ..

d51984

Person in the North that has it traveled through Dublin airport. Only a matter of time now.

basill

I suspect some airlines across the world will use this as an "opportunity". Reduce salaries, offer unpaid leave, clear out deadwood. Drop previously loss/low yielding routes and blame it on the virus.

Caranica

basill wrote: »

I suspect some airlines across the world will use this as an "opportunity". Reduce salaries, offer unpaid leave, clear out deadwood. Drop previously loss/low yielding routes and blame it on the virus.

Easyjet already making noises about "cost cutting" https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51671193

BailMeOut

Booking flights from Heathrow to USA week of 22nd March and noticing that seat availability on the routes I usually take are very limited and am struggling to find times that best suite me. I travel a bit and its rarely an issue so wonder are airlines removing capacity in antisipating for less demand? Its also spring break in USA around then so could just be that.

Any advise however on booking an economy ticket that would be 100% refundable if I decide not to travel that week?

Bussywussy

d51984 wrote: »

Person in the North that has it traveled through Dublin airport. Only a matter of time now.

Flew on EI...DEE I believe,I heard crew being put in quarantine but probably a rumour

BailMeOut

BailMeOut wrote: »

Booking flights from Heathrow to USA week of 22nd March and noticing that seat availability on the routes I usually take are very limited and am struggling to find times that best suite me. I travel a bit and its rarely an issue so wonder are airlines removing capacity in antisipating for less demand? Its also spring break in USA around then so could just be that.

Any advise however on booking an economy ticket that would be 100% refundable if I decide not to travel that week?

ok - never mind. Called company in USA and told them I am not travelling which they were cool with!

EchoIndia

d51984 wrote: »

Person in the North that has it traveled through Dublin airport. Only a matter of time now.

It has repeatedly been said by the national authorities that it will be no surprise if Ireland gets a case or cases so you are not saying anything new.

Van.Bosch

Bussywussy wrote: »

Flew on EI...DEE I believe,I heard crew being put in quarantine but probably a rumour

Not sure about the aircraft but RTE reporting crew in self isolation.

Tenger

d51984 wrote: »

Person in the North that has it traveled through Dublin airport. Only a matter of time now.

In fairness it was always "only a matter of time"



And I agree on the idea that some airlines will use this "opportunity"

I saw this posted elsewhere yesterday;
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/irish-in-flight-entertainment-firm-blames-coronavirus-for-closure-1.4186007

d51984

Well well well Tenger, first case confirmed... you were so right. Seriously airlines need to up their game now, its a joke that people are still been allowed travel so freely spreading this.

Van.Bosch

d51984 wrote: »

Well well well Tenger, first case confirmed... you were so right. Seriously airlines need to up their game now, its a joke that people are still been allowed travel so freely spreading this.

The airlines are businesses out to make a profit - governments are in charge of health and society so they should regulate. Saying that, if bookings collapse airlines will stop flying to unprofitable destinations like many airlines did with China.

Not sure it’s legal for a government to block intra EU travel.

EchoIndia

d51984 wrote: »

Well well well Tenger, first case confirmed... you were so right. Seriously airlines need to up their game now, its a joke that people are still been allowed travel so freely spreading this.

Short of ceasing international travel, how would you propose to control the travel of people who are asymptomatic or those who, if ill, are most likely suffering only from the common cold or other ailments that are not Covid-19?

d51984

Tbh I dont know, it just seems so frustrating and feels like we are doing absolutely nothing to stop this spreading.

NH2013

d51984 wrote: »

Tbh I dont know, it just seems so frustrating and feels like we are doing absolutely nothing to stop this spreading.

I don’t mean to be flippant about it though, but it’s not really a big issue, washing hands and general hygiene should help with most not to spread it, it really only seriously effects the sick and elderly, for most healthy people it would be no worse than just catching the standard winter seasonal influenza, a couple weeks in bed then back to normal.

The vaccine is entering human trials in early April and should be ready for distribution come late April which is only 6-8 weeks away.

I think the media have made this out to be much more of a doomsday event than necessary, it’s really just an issue for the sick and elderly, and it should resolve itself within the next couple months. 70,000 people out of 1,500,000,000 people in China got it, and 98% of them survived, that should say enough.

Locker10a

NH2013 wrote: »

I don’t mean to be flippant about it though, but it’s not really a big issue, washing hands and general hygiene should help with most not to spread it, it really only seriously effects the sick and elderly, for most healthy people it would be no worse than just catching the standard winter seasonal influenza, a couple weeks in bed then back to normal.

The vaccine is entering human trials in early April and should be ready for distribution come late April which is only 6-8 weeks away.

I think the media have made this out to be much more of a doomsday event than necessary, it’s really just an issue for the sick and elderly, and it should resolve itself within the next couple months. 70,000 people out of 1,500,000,000 people in China got it, and 98% of them survived, that should say enough.

Exactly this !

Jack1985

NH2013 wrote: »

... should be ready for distribution come late April which is only 6-8 weeks away.

That is a very optimistic estimate, Q4 20 is what is being used as a conservative estimate.

Tenger

d51984 wrote: »

Well well well Tenger, first case confirmed... you were so right. Seriously airlines need to up their game now, its a joke that people are still been allowed travel so freely spreading this.

I’m not really “right” for posting something that was inevitable.

And airlines don’t “have to up their game”. They are private businesses, nations set the policies for this. Will the EU (for example) expect EI airlines to refund tickets to stop travel? Will the airlines shoulder the cost of stopping travel or adding checks to all travellers?

Sth Korea (with a top notch health system) went from 1 case to 2337 in 29 days. Let’s see how the next 2-3 weeks go.

Those human trials in the US will take weeks to bear fruit. Even if successful global stocks of a vaccine will not be ready till 2021. There is a reason our flu jab is based on last years strain.
I’ve read a medical report (GAMA) that estimates up to 30% of global population could be infected over the next 12 months.

fullstop

What’s the situation if airlines start cancelling flights? Do they refund passengers? Does travel insurance cover it? Have a few trips booked over the next couple of months so getting slightly concerned.

Charles Babbage

Airlines will cut and reduce flights, which might suit as some of their staff will be quarantined or sick.
They'll have to refund booked passengers.
If suitable tests can be devised then airline staff may be tested regularly.
Airlines may have obligations in terms of cleaning planes and that kind of thing.

The only company to benefit may be Boeing, which can't produce 737s anyway and who just might get their act together for the rebound.

NH2013

NH2013 wrote: »

I don’t mean to be flippant about it though, but it’s not really a big issue, washing hands and general hygiene should help with most not to spread it, it really only seriously effects the sick and elderly, for most healthy people it would be no worse than just catching the standard winter seasonal influenza, a couple weeks in bed then back to normal.

The vaccine is entering human trials in early April and should be ready for distribution come late April which is only 6-8 weeks away.

I think the media have made this out to be much more of a doomsday event than necessary, it’s really just an issue for the sick and elderly, and it should resolve itself within the next couple months. 70,000 people out of 1,500,000,000 people in China got it, and 98% of them survived, that should say enough.

You aren’t being flippant at all.

I wish people would take a breath and slow down. Do some research and look at the facts. As shown above and repeated elsewhere, but generally ignored by people on social media, the numbers are tiny. 1.5 billion Chinese but only 70000 got it with 98% of those recovering. The percentage of Chinese that died out of total population is tiny. Nearly 700000 worldwide died from the flu last year.

This is hysteria being propelled by social media, I’m seriously thinking they need to rethink the name for social media personally, it is becoming dangerous.

The one person that has it here in Ireland and the one in the north will likely make full recoveries, will likely only feel like they have a cold or the flu but yeah let’s panic and stop air travel.

Why stop air travel for this ? We don’t stop air travel for the flu when it kills significantly more. Yes there isn’t a vaccine but this will likely fade out as the weather improves if it is seasonal, so by next winter it will be ready.

The guidelines set out say washing your hands is the best way to prevent the spread. Washing hands not using anti bacterial soap, anti bacterial soap won’t kill a virus the clue is in the name. I’ve seen loads of people milling in to anti bacterial soaps in the last week, yes it’s good for general hygiene but pointless against C19.

EchoIndia

duskyjoe wrote: »

American cancelling flights to Milan. In the meantime our lot plough on. Hysteria or not , Ireland as a country need to take measures to protect its population.

One airline deciding to cancel services does not reflect a US Government position and is stated by American as being due to reduced demand.

Ireland is taking measures having regard to the science. No doubt if the current approach needs to be reviewed, it will be.

duskyjoe

duskyjoe wrote: »

American cancelling flights to Milan. In the meantime our lot plough on. Hysteria or not , Ireland as a country need to take measures to protect its population.

I see the body of my post washed right over you.

Protect us from what ? something that will kill less than the seasonal flu, why aren't we cancelling flights when there is an outbreak of the flu somewhere ?

Flights will likely be reduced or cancelled purely through demand rather than national policy. Should we be stopping movement of people in and out of Cork because of the mumps outbreak down there ?

One person has Coronavirus in Ireland....one.

NSAman

Might the Airlines actually properly clean and disinfect their aircraft more? Even letting air into the aircraft?

The turn around times of twenty minutes for some are crazy, little time to change the air in the cabin and certainly NOT enough time to clean an aircraft.

The amount of times I get off a plane only to have a cold/flu/chest infection a few days later is unsettling..now this?

I know I get laughed at by colleagues but I bring antibacterial wipes and wipe all the surfaces before I sit down, I bring hand sanitizer with me everywhere on planes.

Locker10a

duskyjoe wrote: »

American cancelling flights to Milan. In the meantime our lot plough on. Hysteria or not , Ireland as a country need to take measures to protect its population.

Do you think canceling flights to one region will stop it! Laughable!
If I’m Irish and on holidays I’m northern Italy and my flight is cancelled do you think that will stop me coming home! Or do you think I’ll just travel to another point of departure and fly from there.... go figure

19 people died in Ireland in 2019 from the flu.

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/flu-season-deaths-ireland-2019-21189972

650,000-700,000 died worldwide in 2019.

Should we be locking the world down.

Blut2

duskyjoe wrote: »

American cancelling flights to Milan. In the meantime our lot plough on. Hysteria or not , Ireland as a country need to take measures to protect its population.

The three best things Ireland/Dublin airport can do currently in regards to travel are:

1) Place billboards/signs all over the airport reminding people to cough into their elbows and regularly wash their hands (and showing how to wash your hands fully/properly)
2) Make regular announcements of the same
3) Place hand sanitizer dispensers all over the airport, in the way you'd find in a hospital ward

Cancelling flights at this stage is just PR/optics. Unless theres a complete Wuhan style lockdown (which a democratic government won't be able to impose) people will just use other methods of transport to get where they need to go, as other posters have mentioned.

Tenzor07

Well, things aren't getting any better for flights in and out of Italy. I can guess if there's no reduction in the number of CV cases then very very few flights will operate out of the North of Italy at all, and a reduction in flights from places like Rome and Naples....

Ryanair look like they will cancel flights out of BGY to Georgia:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/martinrivers/2020/03/01/ryanair-grounds-italy-georgia-flights-amid-coronavirus-slump/#8fdd5a25ddac

And in true Ryanair fashion will find a way to wriggle out of paying an compensation at all!

In an email sent to existing customers on February 29th, Ryanair claimed that Georgia’s government had asked it to scale back its presence on the Milan-Tbilisi route due to concerns over coronavirus. As a consequence, it said, flight frequencies on that route will drop from four to two per week, effective March 8th.

By blaming Georgia’s government for the latest cancelations, Ryanair appears to be signaling that it will not honor compensation claims under European consumer protection law EU261.

That regulation states that passengers who are scheduled to fly to or from the European Union on any route exceeding 1,500km are entitled to €400 compensation if their flight is canceled within two weeks of the date of travel. Airlines are only exempt from paying compensation if they can prove that "extraordinary circumstances" beyond their control led to the cancelation.

Ryanair invoked this terminology in its email to customers, stating that it “apologises for the inconvenience caused by this restriction which is completely outside of our control”.

Yet the Georgian government has not publicly announced any restrictions on Italian passenger flights.

Charles Babbage

Deleted User wrote: »

You aren’t being flippant at all.

I wish people would take a breath and slow down. Do some research and look at the facts. As shown above and repeated elsewhere, but generally ignored by people on social media, the numbers are tiny. 1.5 billion Chinese but only 70000 got it with 98% of those recovering. The percentage of Chinese that died out of total population is tiny. Nearly 700000 worldwide died from the flu last year.

You have demolished your own argument here, as the % of Chinese dying has only occurred after measures which would impact on the conduct of airline business, you cannot use this as a justification for not having some measures.

Charles Babbage

Charles Babbage wrote: »

You have demolished your own argument here, as the % of Chinese dying has only occurred after measures which would impact on the conduct of airline business, you cannot use this as a justification for not having some measures.

There is a massive difference here that you are ignoring.

The Chinese were unaware of their outbreak until people started presenting at hospitals and dying soon after. At that point Covid 19 had spread in to the population and to visitors. Mortality rates will always be higher at source of the outbreak before people are aware of the issue.

That is not the same as here. We are aware of Covid 19 and people are taking personal responsibility and local health agencies have informed the public to be aware. That is international standard best practice, as WHO has determined.

You cannot ignore the fact they were unaware of the virus and that we are aware of it.

I take my lead from people and organisations who are best placed with knowledge, education and experience in dealing with these issues. Not from panic and hysteria being spread by people on social media. Your opinion is your opinion as is mine. We disagree and that way I expect it will stay. I will no longer be adding to this topic as it is a waste of time as individuals seem to have their minds set on what they believe is the best way forward.

Charles Babbage

Deleted User wrote: »

There is a massive difference here that you are ignoring.

The Chinese were unaware of their outbreak until people started presenting at hospitals and dying soon after. At that point Covid 19 had spread in to the population and to visitors. Mortality rates will always be higher at source of the outbreak before people are aware of the issue.

That is not the same as here. We are aware of Covid 19 and people are taking personal responsibility and local health agencies have informed the public to be aware. That is international standard best practice, as WHO has determined.

You cannot ignore the fact they were unaware of the virus and that we are aware of it.

Yes,but if you contend that "it is only the flu" then awareness won't make much difference as people have always been aware of flu. This requires additional attention that regular flu does not require.

I take my lead from people and organisations who are best placed with knowledge, education and experience in dealing with these issues. Not from panic and hysteria being spread by people on social media. Your opinion is your opinion as is mine. We disagree and that way I expect it will stay. I will no longer be adding to this topic as it is a waste of time as individuals seem to have their minds set on what they believe is the best way forward.

I can only agree that the WHO or CDC is a better guide than boards.ie. However these bodies do not think that it is "only the flu".

PinOnTheRight

BA and Ryanair cancelling further flights.

"BA is cancelling 226 flights from 16-28 March from London to destinations including New York, Italy, France, Austria, Belgium, Germany and Ireland."

Ryanair is cutting back 25% of Italian flights.

Nijmegen

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/02/airline-industry-braced-for-major-threat-from-coronavirus-turmoil

This feels like a big old recession in the making, irrespective of the death rate of the virus.

wetoutside19

Don't forget all the Irish based leasing firms who are leveraged to high ratios, they are in for a serious tough time.

What has saved them with customer cash issues in the past is to take the asset back and there is a queue of other customers willing to take it, unlikely to be the case any longer with all the groundings / flight cuts.

GM228

https://eddiehobbs.com/ireland-playing-jenga-with-national-finances/

Eddie Hobbs/Joe Gills very brief take on Coronavirus and the airline industry.

Airlines Lead Economic Contagion

For example, in comment over the last weekend a noted aviation expert Mr Joe Gill Director of Corporate Broking Goodbody posted “The global aviation complex is undergoing a major Black Swan event that will force a raft of airline closures and consolidation in the leasing industry. Not since 9/11 have I seen such a dramatic and rapid change in the revenue outlook for global airlines and as the facts unfold in coming days and weeks the consequences for this capital-intensive industry will become clear. Governments will be tapped to backstop Flag Carriers and major restructurings are inevitable as the industry resets” Do bear in mind that Ireland is a huge hub in the global aircraft leasing market and this veteran writer is at the crossroads of an informed network of information.

Blut2

wetoutside19 wrote: »

Don't forget all the Irish based leasing firms who are leveraged to high ratios, they are in for a serious tough time.

What has saved them with customer cash issues in the past is to take the asset back and there is a queue of other customers willing to take it, unlikely to be the case any longer with all the groundings / flight cuts.

With the 737MAX orders still indefinitely on hold leaving many airlines short at the moment I'd imagine the leasing firms shouldn't have too much trouble moving on any repossessed air-frames, depending on the models in question.

The cornonavirus is likely to blow over a lot sooner than the MAX gets both flight clearance and delivered to airlines in numbers.

Jack1985

Would think EI will be reconsidering the Summer schedule - there is a fall off in demand for Italy (passenger numbers below 30 on some flights as low as single digits) and demand is slowing to Europe from the US, reduced frequencies are inevitable and some of the fleet being parked up for the next few months can’t be out of the question to protect costs.

I would imagine all new intakes (some in training) will be deferred.

trellheim

is there daily numbers available through airports or is it only monthly reporting ? Its usually from around now that we see the huge increase.

(although these last couple of weeks have been on completely rammed airplanes).