Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

d51984

The current Coronavirus epidemic seems to be getting worse by the day, just wondering what complications if any may happen in the not to distant future.

Can we start taking peoples temperatures on arrival in to the country? Open up isolation centers in major cities? Will Aer Lingus and Ryanair start suspending flights, mainly to Italy so far?

This thing is going to get worse,and now its not a question of weather it arrives in Ireland but a matter of how long until it arrives.

Thoughts?

Tenger

It’s actually “getting” better in the initial origin zone. Daily increases in new cases are falling in China. There are over 20k patients recovered. (Out of 78K confirmed cases in China)

The problem is with people who may have been exposed but aren't taking precautions. This is the most probable cause of the Italian outbreak.
The Sth Korean epicentre revolves around a large church community, think side by side in mass, shaking hands, eating together.

Airlines had procedures in place for SARS, Swineflu and Foot and Mouth. I’m guessing they will have procedures in place now.

Board Walker

I'm in Luxembourg next week but after that Shell has banned our travel. Only domestic travel or car driving in europe. No Flights or trains.

martinsvi

banning a flight to a specific region is not effective - people still need to travel and they will find a way to get going. Globally speaking, you are better off getting people from A to B as quickly as possible, rather making them jump hoops and loops just to get to their destination - less exposure to other people.

Same thing with taking temperature - costs a lot, return for value quite small due to nature of the virus and people taking drugs to push the temperature down. People who care about their health and those around them will self report to medics. People who don't care of either will find a way to sneak by.

it is likely that virus is already in Ireland, it's just that symptoms might be mild enough for people carrying on with their lives without realizing they are sick. Another problem is the hysteria in Teneriffe - with all the lock downs and everything, I honestly believe people are more likely to hide the issue out of fear of overreaction

smurfjed

Saudi Arabia has banned all Umrah religious travel, and issued severe restrictions on a lot of countries. As their holy cities are a gathering place for multiple nationalities, this a serious attempt to stop the spread.

Now will the vatican do the same.

Locker10a

I think it will pass in a few months and be forgotten about by mid summer

d51984

I hope your right, and hopefully Chinese airlines mostly affected by this can survive, however I still feel things will get worse before they get better. St Patricks day festival will be the one to watch now.

Locker10a

d51984 wrote: »

I hope your right, and hopefully Chinese airlines mostly affected by this can survive, however I still feel things will get worse before they get better. St Patricks day festival will be the one to watch now.

Possibly but I feel it’s mostly hysteria by the media (what’s new)

Tenger

It certainly has the potential to be extremely serious.
I dont think it’s hysteria by the media, but I do feel the media should be doing more to highlight the precautions needed to lower transmission (hand washing, cough/sneeze etiquette, personal contact)

I honestly think scaling back St.Patricks events in cities is needed.
The Haji is already a source of mass transfer/infection (as are concerts and conferences) For the Saudis to be considering halting it is a sign of how serious it is.

The biggest issue is not the virus itself (as it has a 2% CFR) but the strain on health infrastructure. The need for testing suspected cases, isolating patients, protecting medics, preventing spread is a harder task than actually treating the virus.
The first human tests on a possible vaccine are happening in April.
Realistically you aren’t going to see a viable vaccine available before Xmas.

I don’t go so far as to think that air travel should be stopped but the airports and airlines will need to be on top of their procedures. And Govt should be advising no travel unless necessary (granted that has a wide catchment!)

Caranica

Has there been any reported cases where the person picked up the virus on a plane. We have heard a lot about cruise ships but I don't remember hearing anything about in flight infection, which is fascinating given the confined space on an aircraft, even an A380.

Popeleo

d51984 wrote: »

I hope your right, and hopefully Chinese airlines mostly affected by this can survive.....

There was an article in the Indo last week about the Hainan Airlines group possibly being nationalised and broken up - they were already in bad financial shape before all this - which would make all the large mainland Chinese airlines state-controlled, so they will all be fine.

Over there, I would be more worried about Hong Kong-based airlines. Over this side of the world, it will be interesting to see how much money the European long-haul carriers are losing over this - I seem to remember reading that AF/KLM made 14% of their revenue on flights to mainland China but all their flights to there are grounded from early February until the end of March at the earliest. Hopefully they all survive if it continues much longer.

martinsvi

Lufthansa is also being very pessimistic:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/lufthansa-makes-cuts-to-brace-for-coronavirus-2020-02-26

smurfjed

Has there been any reported cases where the person picked up the virus on a plane

One Korean FA caught the virus on a Tel Aviv flight and then flew on at least 4 long haul flights,

TomSweeney

How are Norwegian looking ?
They have been on the edge for years now, but haven't they got some bond deal to kick the problem down the road for a year or so more - but this virus could break them .... hope not ..

d51984

Person in the North that has it traveled through Dublin airport. Only a matter of time now.

basill

I suspect some airlines across the world will use this as an "opportunity". Reduce salaries, offer unpaid leave, clear out deadwood. Drop previously loss/low yielding routes and blame it on the virus.

Caranica

basill wrote: »

I suspect some airlines across the world will use this as an "opportunity". Reduce salaries, offer unpaid leave, clear out deadwood. Drop previously loss/low yielding routes and blame it on the virus.

Easyjet already making noises about "cost cutting" https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51671193

BailMeOut

Booking flights from Heathrow to USA week of 22nd March and noticing that seat availability on the routes I usually take are very limited and am struggling to find times that best suite me. I travel a bit and its rarely an issue so wonder are airlines removing capacity in antisipating for less demand? Its also spring break in USA around then so could just be that.

Any advise however on booking an economy ticket that would be 100% refundable if I decide not to travel that week?

Bussywussy

d51984 wrote: »

Person in the North that has it traveled through Dublin airport. Only a matter of time now.

Flew on EI...DEE I believe,I heard crew being put in quarantine but probably a rumour

BailMeOut

BailMeOut wrote: »

Booking flights from Heathrow to USA week of 22nd March and noticing that seat availability on the routes I usually take are very limited and am struggling to find times that best suite me. I travel a bit and its rarely an issue so wonder are airlines removing capacity in antisipating for less demand? Its also spring break in USA around then so could just be that.

Any advise however on booking an economy ticket that would be 100% refundable if I decide not to travel that week?

ok - never mind. Called company in USA and told them I am not travelling which they were cool with!

EchoIndia

d51984 wrote: »

Person in the North that has it traveled through Dublin airport. Only a matter of time now.

It has repeatedly been said by the national authorities that it will be no surprise if Ireland gets a case or cases so you are not saying anything new.

Van.Bosch

Bussywussy wrote: »

Flew on EI...DEE I believe,I heard crew being put in quarantine but probably a rumour

Not sure about the aircraft but RTE reporting crew in self isolation.

Tenger

d51984 wrote: »

Person in the North that has it traveled through Dublin airport. Only a matter of time now.

In fairness it was always "only a matter of time"



And I agree on the idea that some airlines will use this "opportunity"

I saw this posted elsewhere yesterday;
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/irish-in-flight-entertainment-firm-blames-coronavirus-for-closure-1.4186007

d51984

Well well well Tenger, first case confirmed... you were so right. Seriously airlines need to up their game now, its a joke that people are still been allowed travel so freely spreading this.

Van.Bosch

d51984 wrote: »

Well well well Tenger, first case confirmed... you were so right. Seriously airlines need to up their game now, its a joke that people are still been allowed travel so freely spreading this.

The airlines are businesses out to make a profit - governments are in charge of health and society so they should regulate. Saying that, if bookings collapse airlines will stop flying to unprofitable destinations like many airlines did with China.

Not sure it’s legal for a government to block intra EU travel.

EchoIndia

d51984 wrote: »

Well well well Tenger, first case confirmed... you were so right. Seriously airlines need to up their game now, its a joke that people are still been allowed travel so freely spreading this.

Short of ceasing international travel, how would you propose to control the travel of people who are asymptomatic or those who, if ill, are most likely suffering only from the common cold or other ailments that are not Covid-19?

d51984

Tbh I dont know, it just seems so frustrating and feels like we are doing absolutely nothing to stop this spreading.

NH2013

d51984 wrote: »

Tbh I dont know, it just seems so frustrating and feels like we are doing absolutely nothing to stop this spreading.

I don’t mean to be flippant about it though, but it’s not really a big issue, washing hands and general hygiene should help with most not to spread it, it really only seriously effects the sick and elderly, for most healthy people it would be no worse than just catching the standard winter seasonal influenza, a couple weeks in bed then back to normal.

The vaccine is entering human trials in early April and should be ready for distribution come late April which is only 6-8 weeks away.

I think the media have made this out to be much more of a doomsday event than necessary, it’s really just an issue for the sick and elderly, and it should resolve itself within the next couple months. 70,000 people out of 1,500,000,000 people in China got it, and 98% of them survived, that should say enough.

Locker10a

NH2013 wrote: »

I don’t mean to be flippant about it though, but it’s not really a big issue, washing hands and general hygiene should help with most not to spread it, it really only seriously effects the sick and elderly, for most healthy people it would be no worse than just catching the standard winter seasonal influenza, a couple weeks in bed then back to normal.

The vaccine is entering human trials in early April and should be ready for distribution come late April which is only 6-8 weeks away.

I think the media have made this out to be much more of a doomsday event than necessary, it’s really just an issue for the sick and elderly, and it should resolve itself within the next couple months. 70,000 people out of 1,500,000,000 people in China got it, and 98% of them survived, that should say enough.

Exactly this !

Jack1985

NH2013 wrote: »

... should be ready for distribution come late April which is only 6-8 weeks away.

That is a very optimistic estimate, Q4 20 is what is being used as a conservative estimate.

Tenger

d51984 wrote: »

Well well well Tenger, first case confirmed... you were so right. Seriously airlines need to up their game now, its a joke that people are still been allowed travel so freely spreading this.

I’m not really “right” for posting something that was inevitable.

And airlines don’t “have to up their game”. They are private businesses, nations set the policies for this. Will the EU (for example) expect EI airlines to refund tickets to stop travel? Will the airlines shoulder the cost of stopping travel or adding checks to all travellers?

Sth Korea (with a top notch health system) went from 1 case to 2337 in 29 days. Let’s see how the next 2-3 weeks go.

Those human trials in the US will take weeks to bear fruit. Even if successful global stocks of a vaccine will not be ready till 2021. There is a reason our flu jab is based on last years strain.
I’ve read a medical report (GAMA) that estimates up to 30% of global population could be infected over the next 12 months.