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General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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    #2552
    loyatemu
    Registered Users Posts: 14,743 ✭✭✭✭loyatemu


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    Alan Kinsella (Irish Election Literature) surprisingly bearish on his FF seat tally, bullish on the Greens, Soc Dems and Sol/PBP:

    https://twitter.com/electionlit/status/1225732113372241921

    assemble a govt. out of that! FF/FG only option, or another election.


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    #2553
    Phoebas
    Registered Users Posts: 9,370 ✭✭✭Phoebas


    Banner2theend wrote: »
    Believe me the first paragraph you mention, there is enough evidence to suggest that FG are using "their friends in the media" to influence public thinking on this election by deliberately using nasty tactics to humiliate and discredit their opponents.

    Two questions:
    * doesn't every party try to influence how they - and their opponents - are portrayed in the media? I presume you are saying that FG are doing it either illegally or unethically?
    * what 'evidence'do you have?


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    #2554
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,194 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    loyatemu wrote: »
    assemble a govt. out of that! FF/FG only option, or another election.

    FF/SF/Greens which is listed on Paddy Power at 12/1.


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    #2555
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 6,522 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    nc6000 wrote: »
    What a joke FF are, hammering SF at every turn but their Justice spokesperson is happy to cash in by doing legal work for Gerry Adams while he double-jobs.

    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/revealed-ff-tds-work-on-legal-case-for-gerry-adams-38934927.html

    Whatever about the merits of the article I saw it being tweeted out by follow Indo Pol. Corr. Hugh O'Connell whose sister-in-law Kate is running against Jim O'Callaghan in DBS.


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    #2556
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    C14N wrote: »
    Wouldn't a change of leadership normally be a pretty essential component of rehabilitation though?
    With the drubbing of 2011 I don't think so and TBH he was and may still be the best of them. Remember they had 19, 20 with CC, in 2011 and a load of newbies in 2016.


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    #2557
    UDAWINNER
    Registered Users Posts: 860 ✭✭✭UDAWINNER


    Arthur Daley wrote: »
    Given the unemployment numbers on paper. A balanced budget compared to where we were 2008 to 2015, FG should have been looking to coast to a strong result in this election. Their whole attitude from top to bottom has stunk and they are getting hammered as a result.

    It could have been/should have been very different but they were holed below the waterline for years now. If you told people in 2011 the story with FF back in power now and SF rising they wouldn't have believed you. SF have been losing support for several elections now. Only last month in the North they lost seats to the SDLP.
    they lost 1 seat to the the SDLP and gained one from the DUP, Check your facts


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    #2558
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    neris wrote: »
    Havent we had 2 doctors who were ministers for health and didnt really do much.
    Six, James Ryan, Noel Browne Rory O'Hanlon and John O'Connell as well.


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    #2559
    its_steve116
    Registered Users Posts: 2,396 ✭✭✭its_steve116


    Sierra Oscar wrote: »
    Ivan Yates predicting Fianna Fáil to break 60.

    Sinn Féin on 25 would be a fairly paltry increase of two seats.

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1225687811233202177
    FG on 32? That would be only one more seat than that disastrous 2002 election.


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    #2560
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,120 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Of those, I think Michael Gallagher might be nearest the mark. Will be interesting to check afterwards.


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    #2561
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    its_steve116 wrote: »
    FG on 32? That would be only one more seat than that disastrous 2002 election.
    If FG are in the high thirties it'll have been an OK election, FF need that 55 plus and SF will take anything that increases the seats. Would expect the Greens an Labour to have a good election, with Labour holding at about their level or even nudging up one or two and the latter hugely increasing their seat numbers.


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    #2562
    droidus
    Registered Users Posts: 1,545 ✭✭✭droidus


    Entirely possible that FG/FF get less than all others combined making a straight coalition or confidence arrangement impossible.


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    #2563
    sligeach
    Registered Users Posts: 16,021 ✭✭✭✭sligeach


    Does this thread have to close because of the moratorium now in effect, or does it just apply to TV and radio?


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    #2564
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,120 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Yes FF need to get to mid fifties to form a coalition Govn't.
    LB + SD + Green around 25.


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    #2565
    C14N
    Registered Users Posts: 2,656 ✭✭✭C14N


    sligeach wrote: »
    Does this thread have to close because of the moratorium now in effect, or does it just apply to TV and radio?

    Pretty sure it only applies to TV and radio, as these are basically broadcasters with an outsized platform. You can't really prevent people from just chatting about the election.


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    #2566
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,884 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Water John wrote: »
    Of those, I think Michael Gallagher might be nearest the mark. Will be interesting to check afterwards.

    I would be inclined to agree, but unfortunately I cannot see the Social Democrats on five. Four at the most, and Labour more likely on six than eight.


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    #2567
    blackwhite
    Registered Users Posts: 8,488 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    Paddy Power over/unders (odds 5-6 unless stated)

    % FPV
    FF 26.55%
    FG 22.5%
    SF 21.55% (under 8-11; over 10-11)
    Green 8.55% (under 4-7; over 5-4)
    Lab 6.55% (under 3-10; over 2-1)

    Seats
    FF 54.5
    FG 35.5
    SF 28.5 (under Evens; over 8-11)
    Green 10.5
    Lab 5.5


    App isn't showing odds for other parties.

    Offering 5-1 on another election before end of 2020.


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    #2568
    C14N
    Registered Users Posts: 2,656 ✭✭✭C14N


    is_that_so wrote: »
    If FG are in the high thirties it'll have been an OK election, FF need that 55 plus and SF will take anything that increases the seats. Would expect the Greens an Labour to have a good election, with Labour holding at about their level or even nudging up one or two and the latter hugely increasing their seat numbers.

    I can see it being good for the Greens too. They were in the pits after their FF coalition, but the environment seems to be becoming a much more central issue in the past few years, even a lot more so than in 2016. The far left fringe parties are trying hard to rebrand themselves as primarily environmentalist parties, with People Before Profit even having a campaign slogan of "Planet Before Profit". They can appeal to people who do care about the environment but can't bring themselves to put one of those parties into power.


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    #2569
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,120 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    PBP are left populists who'll ride any old horse. They have so little understanding of the climate issue, they simply went with a vegan type call, to half the national herd.


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    #2570
    Wombatman
    Registered Users Posts: 3,337 ✭✭✭Wombatman


    The Indo going all out to damage the shinners.....

    SF tight-lipped over probe of WhatsApp group that said IRA victims are 'wasters'

    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/sf-tight-lipped-over-probe-of-whatsapp-group-that-said-ira-victims-are-wasters-38934932.html

    It took an election to finally get an apology from Sinn Féin - not simple human decency

    https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/it-took-an-election-to-finally-get-an-apology-from-sinn-fein-not-simple-human-decency-38931589.html

    Shadowy figures will never forgive brave mother for taking them on

    https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/shadowy-figures-will-never-forgive-brave-mother-for-taking-them-on-38934935.html


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    #2571
    UDAWINNER
    Registered Users Posts: 860 ✭✭✭UDAWINNER


    I wonder would the Indo ever ask Micheal Martin why Owen O'Callaghan put 5000 in to his Wifes account. Corruption at best but that does not suit their agenda.
    People will be wise enough to see through this.


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    #2572
    Arthur Daley
    Registered Users Posts: 4,399 ✭✭✭Arthur Daley


    UDAWINNER wrote: »
    they lost 1 seat to the the SDLP and gained one from the DUP, Check your facts

    And lost 6.6% off their vote share. But sure if they're happy with the result that's all the matters.


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    #2573
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    Arthur Daley wrote: »
    And lost 6.6% off their vote share. But sure if they're happy with the result that's all the matters.
    They didn't stand in a constituency or two to facilitate SDLP or Alliance winning over DUP.


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    #2574
    Banner2theend
    Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭Banner2theend


    Wombatman wrote: »
    The Indo going all out to damage the shinners.....

    SF tight-lipped over probe of WhatsApp group that said IRA victims are 'wasters'

    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/sf-tight-lipped-over-probe-of-whatsapp-group-that-said-ira-victims-are-wasters-38934932.html

    It took an election to finally get an apology from Sinn Féin - not simple human decency

    https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/it-took-an-election-to-finally-get-an-apology-from-sinn-fein-not-simple-human-decency-38931589.html

    Shadowy figures will never forgive brave mother for taking them on

    https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/shadowy-figures-will-never-forgive-brave-mother-for-taking-them-on-38934935.html

    On the money Wombatman. Agree 1000% plus with your opening comments. Just to note in recent times FF have become a target too by the right-wing hacks in this most provocative tabloid. There are no words to describe this. But at the same time I for one ain't surprised by this type of gutter journalism that exists there when you consider the previous ownership of independent news and media.


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    #2575
    Chips Lovell
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,267 Mod ✭✭✭✭Chips Lovell


    Banner2theend wrote: »
    Believe me the first paragraph you mention, there is enough evidence to suggest that FG are using "their friends in the media" to influence public thinking on this election by deliberately using nasty tactics to humiliate and discredit their opponents.

    Again, I'm not sure what you're referring to here, but I'd seriously doubt the Indo is Fine Gael mouthpiece. Even just looking at its front page every morning, it was evident that they were all over the Maria Bailey story for weeks on end for example. If Fine Gael did have any influence on the paper, you wouldn't expect that to happen.

    Even if the Indo is slanted towards the Fine Gael viewpoint, so what? Nobody is making you buy it.


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    #2576
    UDAWINNER
    Registered Users Posts: 860 ✭✭✭UDAWINNER


    Arthur Daley wrote: »
    And lost 6.6% off their vote share. But sure if they're happy with the result that's all the matters.
    Overall they didn't lose any seats is my point which you tried to say otherwise.


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    #2577
    Russman
    Registered Users Posts: 5,849 ✭✭✭Russman


    sligeach wrote: »
    I can't believe that I'm hearing that Fianna Fail are leading the polls. Do people have that short of a memory? They bankrupted and made a balls of the country. They still have people in the party who were responsible for that, including their leader.

    "Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it."

    True, but realistically (that being the key term), what are the alternatives ? IMHO 9 or 10 years is enough/too much for any government and a change is inevitably needed. Rightly or wrongly its always going to flip from FF to FG and back again as most people in Ireland are broadly middle of the road, sensible, pragmatic etc.


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    #2578
    McMurphy
    Registered Users Posts: 13,365 ✭✭✭✭McMurphy


    Newstalk last evening was shocking tbh, it was actually so blatantly obvious what they were at, they didn't even try and disguise it.

    Eoghan Harris was on Shinner bashing, proclaiming Michaél Martin was incapable of lying, and a vote for Sinn Fein made you complicit in murder. "Vote for Michaél, vote for Michaél, vote for Michaél" was all I could think off everytime he opened his high pitched mouth and spoke.

    The next section was a piece on Glasnevin cemetery and some historian basically blaming Sinn Fein for being behind the vandslism.

    Quirky followed up by Michaél Martin himself having a more than soft light hearted conversation with Yates.

    I suspect they're going to be recieving lots of correspondence accusing them of bias - it went on for the best part of an hour solid.


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    #2579
    WM18
    Registered Users Posts: 124 ✭✭WM18


    Chips Lovell wrote: »
    Again, I'm not sure what you're referring to here, but I'd seriously doubt the Indo is Fine Gael mouthpiece. Even just looking at its front page every morning, it was evident that they were all over the Maria Bailey story for weeks on end for example. If Fine Gael did have any influence on the paper, you wouldn't expect that to happen.

    Even if the Indo is slanted towards the Fine Gael viewpoint, so what? Nobody is making you buy it.

    What the Indo and the IT did this week was scandalous, purely because FG & FF were struggling against the SF tidal wave,made me even more determined to vote for Mary Lou.......


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    #2580
    Chips Lovell
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,267 Mod ✭✭✭✭Chips Lovell


    WM18 wrote: »
    What the Indo and the IT did this week was scandalous, purely because FG & FF were struggling against the SF tidal wave,made me even more determined to vote for Mary Lou.......

    What are you alleging they did exactly? I don't read the Indo regularly but I would read the Irish Times every day.


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    #2581
    WM18
    Registered Users Posts: 124 ✭✭WM18


    Chips Lovell wrote: »
    What are you alleging they did exactly? I don't read the Indo regularly but I would read the Irish Times every day.

    obvious disproportionate SF bashing compared to other parties....


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