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General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,459 ✭✭✭Arthur Daley


    Given the unemployment numbers on paper. A balanced budget compared to where we were 2008 to 2015, FG should have been looking to coast to a strong result in this election. Their whole attitude from top to bottom has stunk and they are getting hammered as a result.

    It could have been/should have been very different but they were holed below the waterline for years now. If you told people in 2011 the story with FF back in power now and SF rising they wouldn't have believed you. SF have been losing support for several elections now. Only last month in the North they lost seats to the SDLP.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,225 ✭✭✭nc6000


    Hurrache wrote: »
    Richard Boyd Barrett has him locked in his basement, it's the only obvious explanation for Browne making YouTube videos advocating we vote for him.

    I remember during a previous election campaign Browne saying he was going to vote for Boyd Barrett.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,225 ✭✭✭nc6000


    What a joke FF are, hammering SF at every turn but their Justice spokesperson is happy to cash in by doing legal work for Gerry Adams while he double-jobs.

    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/revealed-ff-tds-work-on-legal-case-for-gerry-adams-38934927.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,058 ✭✭✭C__MC


    Good luck to the country voting back in Fianna Fail
    A weak front bench and a leader who was there for some of the darkest days of this country

    That's politics though!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,744 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    C__MC wrote: »
    Good luck to the country voting back in Fianna Fail
    A weak front bench and a leader who was there for some of the darkest days of this country

    That's politics though!

    That was actually just about the post similar. Their front bench is far inferior to FG's. Worrying times ahead.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 27,255 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    nc6000 wrote: »
    What a joke FF are, hammering SF at every turn but their Justice spokesperson is happy to cash in by doing legal work for Gerry Adams while he double-jobs.

    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/revealed-ff-tds-work-on-legal-case-for-gerry-adams-38934927.html

    Isn't it strange that the defence offered - not able to discriminate clients - was not allowed for Josepha Madigan.

    Turning back to the predictions, FF/SF remains the favourite at 3/1 with Paddy Power, my €20 at 12/1 looks better all the time.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,592 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    C__MC wrote: »
    Good luck to the country voting back in Fianna Fail
    A weak front bench and a leader who was there for some of the darkest days of this country

    That's politics though!

    Unfortunately the Irish electorate have very short memories.

    They crave the boom years and Celtic Tiger that FF provided before despite how it ended. They long for such good times again, even if it's not sustainable and FF will now piggyback on the hard work and medicine FG had to hand out in order to fix the economy that FF destroyed.

    Whilst the electorate are like this, Ireland will always be a country of boom and bust and one of an electorate who never learn from the past and make the same mistakes time and time again.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    C__MC wrote: »
    Good luck to the country voting back in Fianna Fail
    A weak front bench and a leader who was there for some of the darkest days of this country

    That's politics though!

    It's unreal isn't it.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    Pete_Cavan wrote: »
    That was actually just about the post similar. Their front bench is far inferior to FG's. Worrying times ahead.

    I wonder when though do we start blaming the permanent government i.e. the senior civil servants and department heads. They must be to blame for a lot of the incompetence and yet get a free ride while their bosses front up to the electorate. They are untouchable.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,466 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Ivan Yates predicting Fianna Fáil to break 60.

    Sinn Féin on 25 would be a fairly paltry increase of two seats.

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1225687811233202177


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  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,479 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    You can have a government of national unity during particular times e.g. wartime etc. The idea is that when you need a strong government and/or can't be having major debates about the war in parliament, the parties agree to put the country's greater good over party politics.

    The difficulty is that, without effective opposition, such a government will be largely unopposed for the duration.

    I don't see how Ireland is in dire straights, we are one of the highest gdp per capita countries in the world, are ranked high on the human development index, are reasonably well rated on anti-corruption indices, happiness reports etc. Generally, Ireland is in the upper half of European Countries in most metrics and the top 20 in the world based on population.

    Ireland is not at war, and Brexit can be adequately handled by the current system. If Brexit was the no.1 issue then people would be deciding on whether Varadkar/Coveney should continue or whether they want a change but since Brexit is not really on people's minds at all, there is no emergency about that.

    So basically the problem is that the perception is that the health service is badly run, and amazingly that has been the view through successive governments of all different types. None of the parties have any real distinguishing policy changes e.g. an employers insurance model ala the US, or universal free healthcare like the NHS. Instead, they all say that they will magically fix the current system, but no one has any clue how to do so.

    I suspect that a lot of people take the view that something dramatic needs to be done with the HSE. But anything dramatic leads to inevitable disruption, and that will cost people's lives. Leaving aside the obvious humanitarian problems with such a policy, no politician wants to have to meet the grieving family of a voter who would have survived had they been given the appropriate care but the dramatic change to the HSE meant they did not.

    So ultimately the Minister for Health, whoever they are, is forced by the system to keep going as they are with health, try to make minor changes and savings in a few small areas, and the opposition are forced, also by the system, to criticise the Minister for anything and everything that goes wrong, and to constantly complain that there isn't more money in health.

    So the only way that a government of national unity would work is by the opposition parties agreeing not to crticise the government as they tear apart the HSE and rebuild it from the ground up, and to turn a blind eye to the people that die as a result. No one in their right mind would ever do that, and the people of Ireland certainly don't want that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,670 ✭✭✭I see sheep


    Ivan Yates predicting Fianna Fáil to break 60.

    Jesus Christ if that happens this country deserves another recession, unbelievable how people would vote for these arseholes a few years after wrecking the country


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭Banner2theend


    When the dust settles on GE2020 the big story will be the nasty one-sided campaign by the Indo and their right-wing companions.

    I'm bloody raging that this type of Fox news style propaganda is in our doorsteps. An impartial media is sacrosanct to a proper and functioning democracy. However some of the antics of journalists that should know better would make you wonder are we heading towards some kind of Trumpist kind of society where those on the left are been cast adrift and their opinions don't matter and are continuously ridiculed.

    For those who are seeking to go onto the journalism profession these are most worrying times indeed for press freedom.


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,268 Mod ✭✭✭✭Chips Lovell


    I don't read the Indo, so I'm not sure what you're referring to, but freedom of the press is usually interpreted as the non-interference by the state in the media.

    Fox News exists because there is freedom of the press in the U.S. Sure, it's pure rubbish, but if people want to watch rubbish, then they are free to do so.


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,211 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    I have been getting pop up ads all day saying FF will build 200k homes...surely they haven't promised that?


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,255 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Ivan Yates predicting Fianna Fáil to break 60.

    Sinn Féin on 25 would be a fairly paltry increase of two seats.

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1225687811233202177

    That would leave FF/Lab/Greens on 77, add in a Healy-Rae and a few others, gets you to the 80, throw a FGer into the CC job and you're ok.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,663 ✭✭✭✭zell12


    Ivan Yates predicting Fianna Fáil to break 60.
    Sinn Féin on 25 would be a fairly paltry increase of two seats.
    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1225687811233202177
    A day or so late
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112456551&postcount=1495


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,859 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    gmisk wrote: »
    I have been getting pop up ads all day saying FF will build 200k homes...surely they haven't promised that?

    That figure would include all private development which they are claiming they'll improve output of via various supports. Which of course they'll want to as those builders are their mates.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,409 ✭✭✭KevRossi


    robman60 wrote: »
    Anyone with local knowledge got a good candidate shout that the bookies see as unlikely? Have a fiver free bet with Ladbroke that I'd like to use at the election but I don't see any value jumping out at me.

    Neasa Hourigan in Dublin Central would be one, she could take Packie Donohoe's seat. Lot of left leaning voters there so she'll be transfer friendly. Doing well on social media as well.

    But just looking at her she's 1/2, so probably not the best odds.


  • Registered Users Posts: 67,112 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady




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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,656 ✭✭✭C14N


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Given the economic events surrounding FF and their continued attempts at rehabilitation, a new leader is still way down the list of priorities, even now.

    Wouldn't a change of leadership normally be a pretty essential component of rehabilitation though?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,810 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    Opposition is a crucial part of any government make up.

    But you would think with the dire straits the country is in with regards to health etc, that all parties would put their petty squabbles aside and work together to sort it out.

    Say what you will about Mary Lou, she is a brilliant public speaker and would be a great asset to heading negotiations etc. Same goes for LV and MM. They all do have something to offer and its a pity they are so f*ing childish.

    For me this election campaign has just become a farce. The focus seems to be on their stupid little fights with one another rather than the real issues on hand.

    Also I think in Canada and Norway the different ministerial roles are filled by people with experience in their areas.

    Minister for health = doctor
    Minister for Education = teacher

    And so on.

    It kind of makes sense to me. In this country they are just thrown into the deep end without prior experience. Zappone coming to mind in particular.

    We've had numerous doctors and teachers and accountants/businessmen as Health, Education and Finance/Business ministers over the years and none seem to have stood out compared to the rest.

    The minister for Health isn't the Chief Doctor in the country. It's not their job to have a detailed knowledge on physiology and medical procedures. It may help to have a basic familiarity with them, and how hospitals function, but the vast vast majority of their work has nothing to do with it. The problems in the HSE are at a huge financial and organisational level that the experience of being a doctor will do nothing to help address.

    Same with the other roles. Being a teacher doesn't mean you're any better at sorting out major countrywide issues.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,656 ✭✭✭C14N


    gmisk wrote: »
    I have been getting pop up ads all day saying FF will build 200k homes...surely they haven't promised that?

    They aren't promising to personally build 200k social homes, just that they expect the private sector will build most of them. I don't know how they can think that anyway though. We're already basically at capacity when it comes to the rate of new homes being built, we'd need to import huge numbers of builders from abroad to reach those kind of numbers, and Ireland is not so easy a place for building or so profitable a marketplace as to be that enticing to foreign investment.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 336 ✭✭Banner2theend


    I don't read the Indo, so I'm not sure what you're referring to, but freedom of the press is usually interpreted as the non-interference by state in the media.

    Fox News exists because there is freedom of the press in the U.S. Sure, it's pure rubbish, but if people want to watch rubbish, then they are free to do so.

    Believe me the first paragraph you mention, there is enough evidence to suggest that FG are using "their friends in the media" to influence public thinking on this election by deliberately using nasty tactics to humiliate and discredit their opponents.

    Remember the Indo they say is the "largest selling newspaper in the country". That's why it is most important to highlight this issue. They think that they can insult the intelligence of the Irish people with this Trumpolium way of gutter journalism. They will ultimately fail.

    All that I will say for now is I hope that people who have a vote tomorrow do go out and exercise their democratic right that our warriors of 1916 achieved. That is the very least that these brave men and women deserve Storm Ciara or not.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,803 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Alan Kinsella (Irish Election Literature) surprisingly bearish on his FF seat tally, bullish on the Greens, Soc Dems and Sol/PBP:

    https://twitter.com/electionlit/status/1225732113372241921


  • Registered Users Posts: 339 ✭✭IAmTheReign


    Reducing the pension age back to 65 will still keep us with one of the oldest pensions in Europe.

    I'm not sure how this is an extreme policy.

    There isn't a single country in Europe planning to reduce the age of retirement. Most Western European countries have plans to increase the retirement age over the next few years. Ireland isn't alone in having to deal with an aging population.

    Belgium will be 67 by 2030
    Denmark will be 67 for anyone born after 1977
    France will be 67 by 2023
    Germany will be 67 by 2029
    Italy will be 67 by 2021
    etc.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retirement_in_Europe


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,656 ✭✭✭C14N


    We've had numerous doctors and teachers and accountants/businessmen as Health, Education and Finance/Business ministers over the years and none seem to have stood out compared to the rest.

    The minister for Health isn't the Chief Doctor in the country. It's not their job to have a detailed knowledge on physiology and medical procedures. It may help to have a basic familiarity with them, and how hospitals function, but the vast vast majority of their work has nothing to do with it. The problems in the HSE are at a huge financial and organisational level that the experience of being a doctor will do nothing to help address.

    Same with the other roles. Being a teacher doesn't mean you're any better at sorting out major countrywide issues.

    This is definitely true too. It's nice to have some on-the-ground experience with these things, and it's entirely conceivable that someone would have a career path that transitions from teacher to working your way up the educational bureaucracy to a management position, but running an organisation like this is a completely different skill set to working for it. Being good at one doesn't really translate to being good at the other.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,656 ✭✭✭C14N


    There isn't a single country in Europe planning to reduce the age of retirement. Most Western European countries have plans to increase the retirement age over the next few years. Ireland isn't alone in having to deal with an aging population.

    Belgium will be 67 by 2030
    Denmark will be 67 for anyone born after 1977
    France will be 67 by 2023
    Germany will be 67 by 2029
    Italy will be 67 by 2021
    etc.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retirement_in_Europe

    Nobody is moving back, but we wouldn't really be either since, as far as I can tell, we haven't actually implemented the increase yet. A few other countries in Europe are (according to that list) sticking with their current ages, and several are at 65 or lower.

    That said, I still think that's a bad policy on their part, and not one we should be trying to imitate.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,343 ✭✭✭✭sligeach


    I can't believe that I'm hearing that Fianna Fail are leading the polls. Do people have that short of a memory? They bankrupted and made a balls of the country. They still have people in the party who were responsible for that, including their leader.

    "Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it."


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,371 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    sligeach wrote: »
    I can't believe that I'm hearing that Fianna Fail are leading the polls. Do people have that short of a memory? They bankrupted and made a balls of the country. They still have people in the party who were responsible for that, including their leader.

    "Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it."
    That's fine
    But we're grown adults
    We sometimes just have to move on with things


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